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UK Politics: Royal Weddings and Referendums


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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Okay - who had 46 hours in the sweepstake?
How long before she gets a leadership challenge?
 Will anyone actually put themselves forward? Or are they all just too scared of taking on the poisoned chalice?
Will they go for a vote of no confidence and trigger another general?

Is there any chance whatsoever of emerging from the next year or so without an absolute shit fest?

In the answers to your questions as they come in.

Not me.

Good question, that is the persistent threat now for May.

Depends on their endgame (more on that point later).

Again, depends on the endgame they are angling for.

 

Anyway, let's be clear a leadership challenge and a new General Election will be a vote for a hard Brexit, in anything but name. The clock is ticking down mercilessly, now a leadership challenge and a general election means no progress (if there were any talks then) during the campaign. With the little time left on the clock and the progress so far, it's really hard to think of any other outcome than crasshing out. If your endgame is a hard Brexit, you will launch a leadership challenge. Who would do that? Gove and Johnson are not in the running for that. They would need to resign for that, which is particularly difficult as Gove has publicly backed May's proposal and has as much credibility as BoJo. And that's not even talking about the latter not being a true believer. Whoever topples May has to be a true believer in Brexit, currently not in the goverment. Team Jacob or Team David seem to be likeliest candidates, as they are about the only ones with enough juice to pull it off (or at least that's my impression from the outside).

As for the not so horrible ending of this story. There's alwas hope, I guess. I am just not sure where to find it. Corbyn is busy phantasizing about the Brexit deal he will get, so he will happily topple May to take over and fail during the negotiations in her place (May's unable to deliver Brexit, I on the other hand a very capable). So him and Labour will for once happily stop propping up the May goverment and go into a GE. Assuming Labour doesn't win an outright majority, he would need a partner to form a goverment. The SNP and LibDems are anti-Brexit and seem to loathe Corbyn (and current Labour Policy), so I don't see Labour getting the votes for PM Corbyn. While they are busy trying to secure the votes, the clock keeps ticking down, and you end up with no-deal. 

Well, that's y two cents of doom and gloom. Shall we prepare care packages for the UK?

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Dominic Raab is the new Brexit secretary. A man who legally we must note was never proven to have paid a significant sum to settle a harassment claim by a female employee. A man who argued that the gender pay gap in the UK was worse because we have more women in work. A man who wanted to replace the Human Rights Act with a British Bill of Rights, which would be very handy experience if he hadn't utterly failed to come up with any viable proposals. Sadly this inability to deal with the details has not stopped his backers talking up his ability to deal with the details.

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Sheesh, come on guys, get it together.  I live in Luxembourg, I have peoples from all over Europe, including Italian and Turkish, mocking me every day for the state of my country’s politics.  Luckily I have partially convinced people that Scotland is a totally separate country looking on with bemusement at Westminster antics.  But next thing England will win the WC, that’ll be all I need.

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Female cyclists apparently: who knew Boris cared so much but he always had an eye for the ladies.

I look forward to Wert's carpet chewing post on BJ's interesting day at the office.

 

 

 

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Oh and can I congratulate the British divers along with the Thai navy seals plus other international cave divers for their excellent extraction of the Thai football boys thus far. Truly remarkable and well done to the boys themselves for being so calm and smiley! And Gareth Southgate. Good to see some Brits can have strategies that work.

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Today was a gift that kept on giving. First of all by appointing odious turdbox Dominic Raab, a man so incompetent he gets completely outfoxed by "noted political heavyweight journalist" Krishnan Guru-Murphy every time he goes on C4 News (last time screaming "NICE TRY! NICE TRY!" as the interview ended and he realised he'd made an utter tit of himself, again). Raab's most notable achievement to date was his bizarre appearance at  debate during the last election campaign where he tried to defend the government's cuts to disabled support to a crowd of disabled people and broke into a sweat of such proportions he looked like he'd gone swimming.

The idea of Raab standing up for the British position to Barnier is ridiculous. The guy will make mincemeat of him in minutes.

Then Boris showed his integrity and honour by resigning not over Heathrow but over Davis possibly upstaging him. This backfired within minutes when Davis expressed bafflement over why Boris had done it. The expected avalanche of supporting resignations has so far failed to appear, but it may happen. Gove spent the entire weekend doing the tours of the TV studios expressing 100% support for May, so logically he's about due to stab her in the back and join Boris. Boris is probably dumb enough to let him run his leadership challenge (if it appears, as expected).

The good news is that the Brexit backbenchers seem to be leaning towards Boris mounting the challenge rather than JRM, which avoids giving him any more airtime. Even better is that if a challenge materialises, apparently no-one gives any credence to JRM or Boris winning it, as it would upend Brexit and we just don't have time (we need to have the deal agreed with the EU in about twelve weeks, half of which would be eaten up by a leadership contest).

The EU crew looking at what's going on in the UK with visible disbelief.

20 minutes ago, Blue Roses said:

Female cyclists apparently: who knew Boris cared so much but he always had an eye for the ladies.

I look forward to Wert's carpet chewing post on BJ's interesting day at the office.

I'm assuming that's the carpet chewing in the older sense rather than the modern, which wouldn't be relevant in the immediate circumstances? :O 

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Perhaps both Wert. You do seem to have a hot and sticky relationship with BJ ;)

The EU is also in a bit of sticky situation. What TM has proposed is just rehashed unworkable nonsense which Remainers, Brexiteers & the EU itself has said is unconscionable. Its just cherry picking again. (The EU is guilty of cherry picking as well but that's got lost in the wash over the last 2 years).

But do the EU want Corbyn or a Brexiteer in charge? Do they throw May a bone to keep her in the job as they know the devil they are working with? The EU need a deal fast. The new kids on the block, Italy & Austria are fizzing and not scared of shouting down Brussels and they are slightly more sympathetic to Britain. Merkel is busted. Interesting times.

 

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Blue Roses said:

But do the EU want Corbyn or a Brexiteer in charge? Do they throw May a bone to keep her in the job as they know the devil they are working with? The EU need a deal fast. The new kids on the block, Italy & Austria are fizzing and not scared of shouting down Brussels and they are slightly more sympathetic to Britain. Merkel is busted. Interesting times.

 

The EU don't give the proverbial rat's ass who is PM. They will negotiate with whoever central cast in Downing Street sends. 

You are conflating different issues here. Austria and Italy (predictably) are throwing a tantrum over migration and refugees. Italy has some reason to be upset to be fair, while Austrians are elected a bunch of cunts, plain and simple. Brexit is an economical, an not a social issue, there the EU is pretty much on the same page.

 

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It's looking like (knock on wood) May might have carried the day. Apparently in the meeting this evening she said starkly that if they try to pull her down, they will end up with Jeremy Corbyn in power. She'd need a 2/3ds majority again to call a general election, so a fair few Tories would have to agree with her to blow up the government. She might just have the numbers to pull that off, or can use the vote of no confidence system to trigger an election instead.

Faced with that choice, a lot of the troublemakers have backed down. JRM seems to have been temporarily defanged by that argument, but who knows what will happen in the next day or two.

10 minutes ago, La Albearceleste said:

Why?

We have about 12 weeks to do a deal, and not reaching one that at least allows us to enter the 2-year transition period will also cause enormous headaches for the EU as much as us.

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Otherwise its a very messy no deal with no money next year. It won't be very pleasant for anyone regardless of what side of the debate/continent they are on. Time is ticking for everyone not just the UK. 

And it will happen just as the EU is trying to wind up its next EU budget negotiations. The Dutch are pressing for a smaller budget next cycle and parts of their economy are almost entirely dependent on UK trade for one example. They are very nervous of a no deal scenario but are resigned to the fact that Brussels will  stick to its 4 freedoms ideology regardless of them jumping up and down. The EU could do without the headache with all the other firestorms they are trying to put out.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Notone said:

The EU don't give the proverbial rat's ass who is PM. They will negotiate with whoever central cast in Downing Street sends. 

You are conflating different issues here. Austria and Italy (predictably) are throwing a tantrum over migration and refugees. Italy has some reason to be upset to be fair, while Austrians are elected a bunch of cunts, plain and simple. Brexit is an economical, an not a social issue, there the EU is pretty much on the same page.

 

Yes they do care. And Brexit and the rest of Europe's ongoing issues are definitely idealogical. If Brexit was an economical issue pure and simple it would have been done and dusted by now by both sides.

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