UK Politics: Royal Weddings and Referendums

[A Horse Named Stranger]

57 minutes ago, La Albearceleste said:

Not everyone can, sadly. I can, though it will hurt, but I have friends on whom this has already taken a toll. There are others who may lose their jobs.

I didn't say this is a desirable outcome, it's just where things are apparently going. If the Brexiteers really want to force that outcome they can, it won't be thru a leadership challenge, which May could survive. Simply a vote of no confidence seems to put an end to it pretty swiftly. 

And that's not even talking about the slow death of May not getting together a realistic deal without the Tory party collapsing.

Feel free to point out, how I am missing something important and obvious.

[James Arryn]

Couple more questions. First, the assumption I’m working on is that most Brits regret Brexit, but that there’s not really any way of reversing it. Is that fair/accurate?

If so, are the primary obstacles the idea that political credibility will be undermined by a do-over, or the fact that the ruling party are vested in it, or the general malaise about going through the whole headache for nothing? Is it even an option as far as the EU is itself concerned? Have negotiations hardened Brexit opinions, ie it’s bad for us and costly, but fuck those Euro bastards for making this harder, let’s just leave anyway? 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

35 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Couple more questions. First, the assumption I’m working on is that most Brits regret Brexit, but that there’s not really any way of reversing it. Is that fair/accurate?

If so, are the primary obstacles the idea that political credibility will be undermined by a do-over, or the fact that the ruling party are vested in it, or the general malaise about going through the whole headache for nothing? Is it even an option as far as the EU is itself concerned? Have negotiations hardened Brexit opinions, ie it’s bad for us and costly, but fuck those Euro bastards for making this harder, let’s just leave anyway? 

 

I heard on our radio news that the Brexit thing is still pretty close between the remainers and the Brexiters. polls currently put it at 52% remain and 48% Brexit. So I would say 90%+ of people who voted Brexit in the referendum still want Brexit. So not sure how much buyers remorse there is here.

The other thing the pundit on our radio talked about was May's possible fate and her options. He seemed to think May would survive a confidence vote in the Tory caucus, mostly because it's so close to the Brexit deadline that kicking May out and forcing a vote on a new leader would be very damaging. So this pundit thought May should seriously consider pulling a John Major and not wait for a leadership challenge or no-confidence vote demand from the hard Brexiters but call for a confidence vote herself. If the Brexiters want to slowly diminish May's authority and credibility by having a trickle of resignations to try to force a change, then May should say put up or shut up and ask the Tory caucus to reconfirm her mandate through a confidence vote. If she gets the majority of the Tory caucus then she has a clear run to March with her plan. If she doesn't then she drops out and makes Brexit someone else's problem.

[mormont]

9 hours ago, Notone said:

I didn't say this is a desirable outcome, it's just where things are apparently going. If the Brexiteers really want to force that outcome they can, it won't be thru a leadership challenge, which May could survive. Simply a vote of no confidence seems to put an end to it pretty swiftly. 

And that's not even talking about the slow death of May not getting together a realistic deal without the Tory party collapsing.

Feel free to point out, how I am missing something important and obvious.

I'm not suggesting you think this is a desirable outcome: sorry if that wasn't clear. But what I am saying is that suggesting people 'just make their peace' with an outcome that could see them lose their job, or worse, comes over as a bit tactless. Those people, quite reasonably, may still want to fight that outcome, even if the fight seems hopeless to you.

[Derfel Cadarn]

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I heard on our radio news that the Brexit thing is still pretty close between the remainers and the Brexiters. polls currently put it at 52% remain and 48% Brexit. So I would say 90%+ of people who voted Brexit in the referendum still want Brexit. So not sure how much buyers remorse there is here.

The other thing the pundit on our radio talked about was May's possible fate and her options. He seemed to think May would survive a confidence vote in the Tory caucus, mostly because it's so close to the Brexit deadline that kicking May out and forcing a vote on a new leader would be very damaging. So this pundit thought May should seriously consider pulling a John Major and not wait for a leadership challenge or no-confidence vote demand from the hard Brexiters but call for a confidence vote herself. If the Brexiters want to slowly diminish May's authority and credibility by having a trickle of resignations to try to force a change, then May should say put up or shut up and ask the Tory caucus to reconfirm her mandate through a confidence vote. If she gets the majority of the Tory caucus then she has a clear run to March with her plan. If she doesn't then she drops out and makes Brexit someone else's problem.

She tried somethibg similar by holding a general election,which backfired spectacularly.

[Hereward]

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The other thing the pundit on our radio talked about was May's possible fate and her options. He seemed to think May would survive a confidence vote in the Tory caucus, mostly because it's so close to the Brexit deadline that kicking May out and forcing a vote on a new leader would be very damaging. So this pundit thought May should seriously consider pulling a John Major and not wait for a leadership challenge or no-confidence vote demand from the hard Brexiters but call for a confidence vote herself. If the Brexiters want to slowly diminish May's authority and credibility by having a trickle of resignations to try to force a change, then May should say put up or shut up and ask the Tory caucus to reconfirm her mandate through a confidence vote. If she gets the majority of the Tory caucus then she has a clear run to March with her plan. If she doesn't then she drops out and makes Brexit someone else's problem.

I don't think your pundit knows what he's talking about. For this to happen, May would have to resign as party leader and that would formally open the leadership election process. As long as there is one challenger, and there would be, and no matter how overwhelming her support was amongst MP, she has no "clear run to March", but would face an election by Tory party members against her leading challenger, even if that challenger only attracted his/her own support amongst the MPs. That would take at least a month, and more likely three. 

[The Anti-Targ]

11 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

She tried somethibg similar by holding a general election,which backfired spectacularly.

Yeah, but you can control and predict the outcome of a caucus vote much better. Public opinion is already against Brexit, marginally, at least according to some polls. It's probably a lot more against a hard Brexit. So if given the choice between a hard Brexit and no Brexit the public seems to be definitely not with Boris and co. And May can probably use that public opinion to force the weak-kneed Tory caucus to swing in behind her, at least enough of them to win a confidence vote.

Boris wants to be PM, pretty much, since he doesn't have enough royal blood to be king, and I imagine his only path to a peerage is to become PM. So what's his play here? Weaken May enough to mount a post March 2019 leadership challenge, but not so much that he has to make a play for PM before the March deadline. And getting out now, means he can't be blamed for whatever outcome happens in March 2019. Johnson needs the hard Brexiters on side, but if he stayed as the FM and the soft Brexit won through the hard Brexiters would reject him as a potential leader. But Boris either actually would be personally OK with the soft Brexit, but probably doesn't care too much either way. He also wasn't the first rat to jump. So May should look to be a bit more proactive in combating Johnson's machinations, rather than just stiff upper lip it.

[Hereward]

2 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Yeah, but you can control and predict the outcome of a caucus vote much better. Public opinion is already against Brexit, marginally, at least according to some polls. It's probably a lot more against a hard Brexit. So if given the choice between a hard Brexit and no Brexit the public seems to be definitely not with Boris and co. And May can probably use that public opinion to force the weak-kneed Tory caucus to swing in behind her, at least enough of them to win a confidence vote.

Doesn't matter. If she precipitates a confidence vote, she doesn't need 50% of MPs to avoid a vote by the (hard Brexit) membership, she needs 100%, and that includes the vote of her challenger.

[DMC]

This is a formal request to get Boris Johnson out of my news.  I think I've suffered enough.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

5 hours ago, La Albearceleste said:

I'm not suggesting you think this is a desirable outcome: sorry if that wasn't clear. But what I am saying is that suggesting people 'just make their peace' with an outcome that could see them lose their job, or worse, comes over as a bit tactless. Those people, quite reasonably, may still want to fight that outcome, even if the fight seems hopeless to you.

Fair enough. I am not saying give up the fight, more like adjust your expectations. I suggest your default position at this point should be "no deal; hard brexit" (if it isn't already), and try to plan accordingly if possible (look for openings on the continent if you can (gets a bit more difficult with age and/or children)). Don't hang your hopes on some miracle last minute deal, or a second referendum, and pretend it's gonna be alright.

[williamjm]

17 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Couple more questions. First, the assumption I’m working on is that most Brits regret Brexit, but that there’s not really any way of reversing it. Is that fair/accurate?

If so, are the primary obstacles the idea that political credibility will be undermined by a do-over, or the fact that the ruling party are vested in it, or the general malaise about going through the whole headache for nothing? Is it even an option as far as the EU is itself concerned? Have negotiations hardened Brexit opinions, ie it’s bad for us and costly, but fuck those Euro bastards for making this harder, let’s just leave anyway?

I think there has been quite a bit of variation in polls, but it's similar to the variation before the referendum with some polls showing Brexit ahead and some showing Remain ahead, so there doesn't seem to have been a huge change in overall sentiment. It seems most people who voted for Brexit still support Brexit in principle, although they may not necessarily think the negotiations are going well.

9 hours ago, DMC said:

This is a formal request to get Boris Johnson out of my news.  I think I've suffered enough.

If you can get Donald Trump out of our news we'd be happy to comply with this request.

[mankytoes]

20 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Couple more questions. First, the assumption I’m working on is that most Brits regret Brexit, but that there’s not really any way of reversing it. Is that fair/accurate?

If so, are the primary obstacles the idea that political credibility will be undermined by a do-over, or the fact that the ruling party are vested in it, or the general malaise about going through the whole headache for nothing? Is it even an option as far as the EU is itself concerned? Have negotiations hardened Brexit opinions, ie it’s bad for us and costly, but fuck those Euro bastards for making this harder, let’s just leave anyway? 

 

Certainly no strong evidence to support this. A lot of people are saying this is the case, but they nearly all voted Remain in the first place, and are just repeating what they said pre-referendum. 

It's kind of like a nasty, contested divorce. Do you go through with it, or just stick in your miserable marriage until you die?

[DMC]

6 hours ago, williamjm said:

If you can get Donald Trump out of our news we'd be happy to comply with this request.

That would be the suffering I was referring to.  Now if you want to discuss trade..

[Jeor]

What are the chances of a readmittance to the EU after a few rough years after a hard Brexit?

The EU might laugh but at the end of the day it's probably still in their interests to have Britain inside the tent than out, and they can use Brexit as a warning to everyone else not to get any silly ideas about leaving. But they might drive a hard bargain with the British pound and EU currency next time?

[Pebble thats Stubby]

52 minutes ago, Jeor said:

What are the chances of a readmittance to the EU after a few rough years after a hard Brexit?

The EU might laugh but at the end of the day it's probably still in their interests to have Britain inside the tent than out, and they can use Brexit as a warning to everyone else not to get any silly ideas about leaving. But they might drive a hard bargain with the British pound and EU currency next time?

I think we would be allowed to re-join.  but it would be on the same terms as everyone else.  So the Euro,  no rebate or special rules just for us. 

 

[Jeor]

8 hours ago, Pebble said:

I think we would be allowed to re-join.  but it would be on the same terms as everyone else.  So the Euro,  no rebate or special rules just for us. 

 

In other words, the whole exercise would have been simply to negotiate away all the special conditions Britain had in the Eurozone anyway.

Could be a good long game for the EU to play. In some ways, as much as it might be cutting off their own nose to spite the face with their own trade, it might be in the EU's long term interests for Brexit to play out badly (to discourage other countries thinking the same thing) and then welcome Britain back in, cleanly reset, with EU currency.

One also wonders how bad it would have to get for Britons to want to get back in the EU, too. It'd be a major crow-eating moment and there might not be public appetite for it for a few years until people are convinced that it's not going to get better unless they try to get back in.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, Jeor said:

In other words, the whole exercise would have been simply to negotiate away all the special conditions Britain had in the Eurozone anyway.

Could be a good long game for the EU to play. In some ways, as much as it might be cutting off their own nose to spite the face with their own trade, it might be in the EU's long term interests for Brexit to play out badly (to discourage other countries thinking the same thing) and then welcome Britain back in, cleanly reset, with EU currency.

One also wonders how bad it would have to get for Britons to want to get back in the EU, too. It'd be a major crow-eating moment and there might not be public appetite for it for a few years until people are convinced that it's not going to get better unless they try to get back in.

Small nitpicks. The UK is not in the Eurozone, they still have the pound. Eurozone ususally refers to the countries which use the €.

Otherwise pretty much yes. Thus far it has been an excercise in losing international standing and prosperity for the UK, and a crash out will just be horrible. But no, the EU has no interest in punishing Britain, the EU's primary motivation is keeping its institutions (most prominent the single market) intact. Otherwise a no-deal Brexit is also a hit to the EU's economy, not as big as it is for the UK by any means, but unpleasent nonethelss. 

IMHO re-entry would definately get rid off most special treatments the UK enjoys atm. Whether it's croweating or not, that's probably not gonna be a reason to dismiss it (unless you are Boris Johnson). Just a look at the economic and political realities then should see to it. However, I also think it will take a good ten years or more to happen. The next GE will feature a Brexiteer lead Labour, against a Tory party that has just done Brexit. So unless LibDems pull of a major upset the next goverment will not reverse Brexit. The GE campaign after that might feature the first major party to campaign on a new EU referendum. If it were the Tories to campaign on that to oust PM Corbyn, that would be one of the big ironies of history. 

But who knows, by then maybe we will have had IndyRef2. 

 

P.S. meanwhile in Brussels we have the predicted first reactions to UK's White Paper.

[mormont]

9 minutes ago, Notone said:

Whether it's croweating or not, that's probably not gonna be a reason to dismiss it (unless you are Boris Johnson)

Boris Johnson does not give a fuck. He has no genuine opinions on Europe, only phony ones that he decided would benefit his career. If he thought going back into the EU complete with Euro membership and all would make him Prime Minister, he'd be on it like a flash.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, La Albearceleste said:

Boris Johnson does not give a fuck. He has no genuine opinions on Europe, only phony ones that he decided would benefit his career. If he thought going back into the EU complete with Euro membership and all would make him Prime Minister, he'd be on it like a flash.

Probably, but he was like the only politician that came to mind in an instant, when it comes down to dismiss something, because it's embarassing on a personal level. But on the other hand, he is like Trump in that one important respect. The total inability to feel any shame whatsoever.

[mankytoes]

1 hour ago, La Albearceleste said:

Boris Johnson does not give a fuck. He has no genuine opinions on Europe, only phony ones that he decided would benefit his career. If he thought going back into the EU complete with Euro membership and all would make him Prime Minister, he'd be on it like a flash.

Spot on. It's pretty frustrating when people use him as the example of a Brexiteer. A normal Brexiteer is someone who looks at the EU and thinks "overall, we'd be better off outside of this institution". Boris Johnson is someone who looks at a situation and thinks "how can I fulfil my shallow personal goals through manipulating things here?". He's not really much different to Cameron in that respect, but I'm worried about all the people who'll consider voting for Boris "cos he's such a legend lol did you see him do the thing". 

When considering whether we'll join the EU again in ten/twenty years, you've got to consider whether there will even be an EU to rejoin. I don't think there will, not in the same format it is in now.