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Why did Hoster Tully throw his lot with the Rebels?


Angel Eyes

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So after the execution of Rickard and Brandon Stark, why did Hoster Tully decide to support the Rebels by marrying his daughters to Lord Eddard Stark and Lord Jon Arryn? Why not cut his losses after Brandon’s death and disassociate himself from House Stark in particular by siding with the Targaryens? Was it southron agreements with Rickard Stark? Availability of partners?

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Aerys might just have been to much of a nutbag for Hoster. I don't wanna get into whether Brandon or Rickard had actually committed any crimes or not but just look at the "trail".

Sure Westeros doesn't have a modern rule of law but there are expectation of nobles getting something resembling a "fair" trial. Burning a man with wildfire while his firstborn strangles himself trying to save him is just beyond the pale. If Aerys will kill some of the most high ranking nobles in sure a tortious way then noone is safe.

Rhaegar might have been a candidate to replace his father if he wasn't the seeming instigator of the whole affair and now for all appearances in hiding instead of explaining what happened.

Siding with the rebels was a gamble but so would siding with Aerys be.

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The rewards for one side were immense, while the other side has virtually none. Aerys was never known to be gracious to his loyal servants, while with the rebels he gets what he wanted (marriage alliance to the lord/future Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North and one of the oldest and most prestigious houses) and then some (alliance with the Stormlands through Ned and Jon and marriage alliance with Lord of the Eyrie and Warden of the East). He would be one of the main people in charge of the seven kingdoms. Or so it would seem.

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I think some people focus on Lyana's kidnapping/elopement as the start of Robert's Rebellion (which I guess is true) but the realm was well aware of what Aerys was becoming well before that. If your King is slowly becoming irrational and unhelpful - let alone insane - most Lords would start getting concerned enough to at least entertain the possibility of another option. 

Now, actually acting would be treason, but when Robert raised his banners (and don't forget, Robert was a very persuasive and likeable guy) it just gave Hoster the chance to act out what everyone had been thinking. 

I agree with the posters above too, he stands to gain far more from siding with Robert and marrying his daughters off to them than he would with Aerys. 

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1 hour ago, Mat92 said:

I think some people focus on Lyana's kidnapping/elopement as the start of Robert's Rebellion (which I guess is true) but the realm was well aware of what Aerys was becoming well before that. If your King is slowly becoming irrational and unhelpful - let alone insane - most Lords would start getting concerned enough to at least entertain the possibility of another option. 

Now, actually acting would be treason, but when Robert raised his banners (and don't forget, Robert was a very persuasive and likeable guy) it just gave Hoster the chance to act out what everyone had been thinking. 

I agree with the posters above too, he stands to gain far more from siding with Robert and marrying his daughters off to them than he would with Aerys. 

This ^

An alliance was already forming due to the mad kings actions and/or the targ weakness (no more dragons)  

He already had bethrothed his daughter to brandon so had good ties to starks, when the war started he ensured  his prize daughter still married a stark and the 'soiled ' one was married to jon  arryn to seal the alliance tight

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He had nothing to lose. He married his daughters off into great houses, if the rebellion failed, there was a good chance he would have been offered a pardon. 

It says as much in the Griffin Reborn. If Tywin had been the commander at the Battle of the Bells, he would have burned Stony Sept to the ground and offered pardons to Ned, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully when they turned up. 

He took a calculated risk.

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20 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

So after the execution of Rickard and Brandon Stark, why did Hoster Tully decide to support the Rebels by marrying his daughters to Lord Eddard Stark and Lord Jon Arryn? Why not cut his losses after Brandon’s death and disassociate himself from House Stark in particular by siding with the Targaryens? Was it southron agreements with Rickard Stark? Availability of partners?

There wouldn't be a story if the north and the stormlands went to war and lost now would there

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21 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

So after the execution of Rickard and Brandon Stark, why did Hoster Tully decide to support the Rebels by marrying his daughters to Lord Eddard Stark and Lord Jon Arryn? Why not cut his losses after Brandon’s death and disassociate himself from House Stark in particular by siding with the Targaryens? Was it southron agreements with Rickard Stark? Availability of partners?

I think the Tullys and other great houses were plotting against the Iron Throne for some time. I'm sure none of them were pleased with the fact that the ruling Targs usually wed within their own house, but even when they did stray it was almost always to someone's bannerman:

Maegor to a Hightower, a Harroway, a Westerling and a Costayne

Viserys I to a Hightower (but also an Arryn, the exception that proves the rule)

Viserys II to a Rogare

Aerys I to a Penrose

Maekar to a Dayne

And no one north or the marches could have been pleased with Dareon II's marriage to Mariah Martell.

All of this has the affect of elevating lesser houses above their lieges. So when Aegon V married Betha Blackwood, it probably stuck in the craw of the previous Lord Tully and probably led to talk about uniting their houses through marriage -- something that the next generation of lords would actually attempt as dissatisfaction with the ruling order started to erode.

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3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I think the Tullys and other great houses were plotting against the Iron Throne for some time. I'm sure none of them were pleased with the fact that the ruling Targs usually wed within their own house, but even when they did stray it was almost always to someone's bannerman:

Maegor to a Hightower, a Harroway, a Westerling and a Costayne

Viserys I to a Hightower (but also an Arryn, the exception that proves the rule)

Viserys II to a Rogare

Aerys I to a Penrose

Maekar to a Dayne

And no one north or the marches could have been pleased with Dareon II's marriage to Mariah Martell.

All of this has the affect of elevating lesser houses above their lieges. So when Aegon V married Betha Blackwood, it probably stuck in the craw of the previous Lord Tully and probably led to talk about uniting their houses through marriage -- something that the next generation of lords would actually attempt as dissatisfaction with the ruling order started to erode.

Whoever the Targaryens choose to marry, there will be other houses who will have a problem with it.  The ruling House has to stay above them all to avoid any perception of bias and partiality.  But that is very hard to do without marrying a daughter or son from one of the Free Cities.  The royal family had to marry and siblings were not always available.  But yeah, Aegon V marrying the daughter of a Blackwood could have wounded Tully pride.

2 hours ago, Frey Kings said:

Hoster Tully is a bad man, a treasonous. ambitious man. For his crimes against the realm, his house is destroyed and his descendants are buried into the dirt. 

Unfortunately, Edmure is still drawing breath.  

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On 6/2/2018 at 9:04 PM, Leonardo said:

The rewards for one side were immense, while the other side has virtually none. Aerys was never known to be gracious to his loyal servants, while with the rebels he gets what he wanted (marriage alliance to the lord/future Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North and one of the oldest and most prestigious houses) and then some (alliance with the Stormlands through Ned and Jon and marriage alliance with Lord of the Eyrie and Warden of the East). He would be one of the main people in charge of the seven kingdoms. Or so it would seem.

Aerys was incredibly generous to many, just not Tywin. AWOIAF touches on that many times

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On 6/4/2018 at 1:43 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Aerys was incredibly generous to many

Quote? After Duskendale, he seems to be a 'brutal, capricious' shut in. In his youth we hear he was handsome, and capable of charming when he chose. Early in his reign we learn he was 'active and lively' a good dancer, and full of grand schemes that came to nothing.

Aegon IV ("The Unworthy") was known to give away priceless treasures to lords that managed to please him. Perhaps you mean him? While Aerys was also capricious and unworthy, he does not seem to have been generous, nor generally pleasure-seeking.

He certainly wasn't generous to the smallfolk. He allowed Tywin to remove the rights and protections of Smallfolk, and their Lords to increase their wealth by way of customs and duties their smallfolk paid for.  These changes were popular with the Lords, but as they levied the taxes themselves, and Tywin was the guy that allowed them to, it would be hard for even then to call him generous on that account.

On the OP, I think there are a couple of things about Aerys that Hoster would have noticed in particular.

One is that Aerys sent Lord Steffon off to Essos to find a bride of "maid of noble birth from a proud Valyrian bloodline" rather than consider the daughter of any of his Lord bannermen. He did finally marry his son to one of his lord bannermen, but not Hoster, not his Catelyn, who was at age (and in fact, had been engaged to Brandon Stark already).

The second thing is, almost as soon as Hoster lines up Jaime Lannister for Lysa, Aerys takes the boy into his Kingsguard. And then Aerys murders Catelyn's intended.

Hoster is given no reason to love his king. If Aerys wants him to be his chum, it's probably a trap because he suspects his loyalty. If it isn't, Aerys would probably be teaching his former friend Tywin a lesson. A lesson that Tywin might punish Hoster for. At best he would get nothing but Tywin sitting with his army on Hoster's doorstep, cool and collected, waiting until Hoster's men marched off to spill their blood at the Kings command in some pointless skirmish in the Stormlands or Dorne or wherever Aerys in his paranoid madness dictated. At worst, he would come to King's Landing to burn like Rickard Stark, and his son with him.

On the other hand, Robert Baratheon and Eddard Stark were offering to join their hosts to his. If Tywin decided to attack the riverlands, they would help him fight him off.  They were capable battle commanders and they belonged to two of the most ancient and powerful houses in the kingdom. And they would ensure his daughters were married in spite of all Aerys had done to disrupt that.

If worse came to worst, there was always a chance Edmure would be allowed to renew his loyalty to the throne when Hoster had died rebelling against it. But the side that won the Riverlands would win the war, and the rebels were sane and competent commanders, while the King didn't even trust his son and ensured his armies were mis-managed, denying the reality of his enemies dispositions when he knew them, or else killing the messenger in his rage.

History would tell Hoster that the war would be won or lost in the Riverlands. That is where armies get bogged down. Looking at the Gods Eye and Harrenhal in particular, we can see that was where wars had ended decisively since the First Men warred with the Children of the Forest. Maybe even before that.

Hoster knows his territory, knows his Brackens and his Blackwoods and his Freys and his Darrys.  His knowledge and counsel would be a winning asset, if he was allowed to offer it. Stark and Arryn respected him as an equal, Aerys treated everyone like servants that had to obey. Not only did he have more to win on the rebel side, Hoster had more opportunity to win it. It was still a huge risk, until he knew what side Tywin was on, but in many ways, there was less risk in throwing his lot in with the rebels.  

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On 6/2/2018 at 4:51 PM, Angel Eyes said:

So after the execution of Rickard and Brandon Stark, why did Hoster Tully decide to support the Rebels by marrying his daughters to Lord Eddard Stark and Lord Jon Arryn? Why not cut his losses after Brandon’s death and disassociate himself from House Stark in particular by siding with the Targaryens? Was it southron agreements with Rickard Stark? Availability of partners?

It seems he was content to sit out the war, or at least take a wait and see approach, seeing how he did not get involved until the Battle of the Bells, well into the war. But the rebels were able to offer two of the three rebels leaders in marriage to Hoster's daughters (Robert was presumably still holding out hope to marry Lyanna), including the Lord of the North and the Lord of the Vale. Hard to pass up, especially if Hoster preferred to switch sides, and just needed incentive. The Targaryens could have offered Viserys, but Aerys isn't the sort to offer incentives to his servants to get them to serve him.

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On 6/3/2018 at 1:40 AM, Mat92 said:

I think some people focus on Lyana's kidnapping/elopement as the start of Robert's Rebellion (which I guess is true) but the realm was well aware of what Aerys was becoming well before that. If your King is slowly becoming irrational and unhelpful - let alone insane - most Lords would start getting concerned enough to at least entertain the possibility of another option. 

Now, actually acting would be treason, but when Robert raised his banners (and don't forget, Robert was a very persuasive and likeable guy) it just gave Hoster the chance to act out what everyone had been thinking. 

I agree with the posters above too, he stands to gain far more from siding with Robert and marrying his daughters off to them than he would with Aerys. 

Even so, Hoster was not willing to join the rebels until they offered the hands of two out of the three rebel leaders for his daughters before the Battle of the Bells. Short of that, it appears he was content to suffer through the remainder of the rule of the Mad King and his heir. 

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On 6/3/2018 at 1:40 AM, Mat92 said:

I think some people focus on Lyana's kidnapping/elopement as the start of Robert's Rebellion (which I guess is true) but the realm was well aware of what Aerys was becoming well before that. If your King is slowly becoming irrational and unhelpful - let alone insane - most Lords would start getting concerned enough to at least entertain the possibility of another option. 

Now, actually acting would be treason, but when Robert raised his banners (and don't forget, Robert was a very persuasive and likeable guy) it just gave Hoster the chance to act out what everyone had been thinking. 

I agree with the posters above too, he stands to gain far more from siding with Robert and marrying his daughters off to them than he would with Aerys. 

I myself see Aerys’ execution of Rickard and Brandon Stark and subsequently calling for the heads of Robert and Ned as the starting point. 

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