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What if Jaime had died before Robert's Rebellion?


Ylath's Snout

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In many ways Jaime Lannister played a central role in shaping the political situation and key interpersonal drama that forms the core of ASoIaF that removing him is a bit silly but let's have some fun eh?

Personally I think that a reasonable point-of-departure would be 281 AC: Jaime is taking part in the efforts to end the Kingswood Brotherhood. Instead of successfully trading blows with the Smiling Knight and getting knighted the same day in this timeline Jaime is cut down.

Some questions to get the discussion rolling:

  • How would his family react?
  • Specifically, with his heir apparent dead and Tyrion his only remaining male child, how would Tywin insure the dynastic future of House Lannister?
  • With Jaime dead and unable to join the King's Guard will Tywin remain as Hand of the King?
  • What effects would this death and its consequences have on Robert's Rebellion?
  • How would the members of a "Southern Ambition"-cabal try to utilize this new situation?

(Feel free to tweak the point of departure or whatever if you want, I'm not a tyrant ;) )

 

It is getting late were I live so I won't write up anything too long but I feel like it hinges on two characters:

Tywin: Will he remarry, find a match for Cersei or appoint Kevan as his heir? I see how things could spinn away in several different directions depending on what the (not so) Old Lion does.

Aerys: His reaction could seal the fate his House. Basically if his reaction to Jaime's death is spiteful or mocking then Tywin will repay that debt when Robert comes around. IMHO it seems unlikely but maybe Joanna's child dying could jolt the King out of his madness long enough for the Dragon and Lion to mend some fences. 

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Well IIRC, a significant factor in Aery's spiral into madness was his paranoia, especially in regards to Tywin being more influential than him. 

If that's the case, Jaime not being assigned to the Kingsguard may alleviate SOME of this - not constantly having a Lannister around, let alone assigned to protect you, let alone the son of the guy you are paranoid of would probably have let Aerys breathe a little easier. But I doubt this is a significant factor.

The other thing is that Jaime would not be there to kill Aerys - it's doubtful that anyone else would have made the same decision (which is why Jaimes character is interesting) so that means most of KL would have gone up in Wildfire.

I don't know how much this would affect Cersei between Jaimes death and the end of the rebellion - she wasn't married yet, nor promised to anyone that I can remember so she wouldn't affect anything until after the rebellion.

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3 hours ago, Mat92 said:

Well IIRC, a significant factor in Aery's spiral into madness was his paranoia, especially in regards to Tywin being more influential than him. 

If that's the case, Jaime not being assigned to the Kingsguard may alleviate SOME of this - not constantly having a Lannister around, let alone assigned to protect you, let alone the son of the guy you are paranoid of would probably have let Aerys breathe a little easier. But I doubt this is a significant factor.

Sure but having Jaime as a Kingsguard could also have been source of security for Aerys. Jamie was as much Aerys' guard as he was the kings hostage. With Jaime dead the Mad King lacks leverage over Tywin.

3 hours ago, Mat92 said:

The other thing is that Jaime would not be there to kill Aerys - it's doubtful that anyone else would have made the same decision (which is why Jaimes character is interesting) so that means most of KL would have gone up in Wildfire.

If the war takes the same route as it did in the main timeline but personally I'm not sure will would. To a large degree it depends on if Tywin makes any sorts of quick marriage-pacts.

I do think you're right about the other KG not killing Aerys, they have seens and done a lot of shit during Aerys rule.

3 hours ago, Mat92 said:

I don't know how much this would affect Cersei between Jaimes death and the end of the rebellion - she wasn't married yet, nor promised to anyone that I can remember so she wouldn't affect anything until after the rebellion.

Yeah Tywin seemed to have kept her unmarried in the hopes of Elia dying or maybe a match with Viserys. I don't think he would feel he could make those sorts of long term plans anymore, if he had an accident or got suddenly sick then the Rock would fall into the hated hands of Tyrion.

I believe he would want a worthy second son that could co-rule with Cersei or better yet for them to have a son that Tywin can raise to become his true heir.

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6 hours ago, Kandrax said:

King's landing will be blown up after Rebels enter into it.

King's Landing might go boom if the war unfolds the same way it did in the main timeline personally I don't think that would be the case.

6 hours ago, Kandrax said:

With Robert's death, Stannis would be declared king.

I don't think Robert would die, he was wounded after fighting Rhaegar on the Trident. Ned was his point-man for the assault on King's Landing and Tywin was already plundering when Ned got to there. So those two are much more likely to get killed than Robert.

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16 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

In many ways Jaime Lannister played a central role in shaping the political situation and key interpersonal drama that forms the core of ASoIaF that removing him is a bit silly but let's have some fun eh?

 

Cersei would have an affair with someone else, get them to join the KG  and cuckold bob so the story would continue as written 

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I think Tywin would join the rebellion esrlier if Jaime wasn't around as essentially a hostage. I also think Tywin would have remarried to try to create another heir to replace Tyrion. (Perhaps Lysa Tully??). With Tywin as a part of the rebellion, the rebels would win the war even easier. Now, there is a possibility that Aerys torches King's Landing. There may be a seige of King's Landing in this case though. 

Okay, interestjng thought. Let's say Eddard is the first there still and dies in the wildfire in King's Landing. This means Catelyn becomes acting Lord of Winterfell until Robb comes of age. Sansa, Arya, Bran, and Rickon are never born. With Winterfell more vulnerable, Benjen Stark might not join the Night's Watch. Eddard never shows up at the Tower of Joy. The Kingsguard flee across he sea with Jon Targaryen. It's getting too complicated at this point, Hard to guess how things will go. Robert would hate the Targaryens even more after Eddard's death. 

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Cersei marries Lancel and CR will not pass to Tyrion. Tywin would possibly sit out the war, so no sack of KL. Instead of being stabbed in the back Aerys will go out with a bang. Since Elia and her children will die in the explosion and not with Tywin's command Ned's relationship with Bob will not sour and Ned will also not develop a dislike for Lannisters.

Oh and Ethan Glover would die so Ned either has to find someone else for his magnificent seven or may lose at ToJ

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3 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

I think Tywin would join the rebellion esrlier if Jaime wasn't around as essentially a hostage.

Yeah, more so if Tywin blames Aerys/the King's Guard for the death of Jamie or Aerys was a awful prick afterwards.

3 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

With Tywin as a part of the rebellion, the rebels would win the war even easier. Now, there is a possibility that Aerys torches King's Landing. There may be a seige of King's Landing in this case though.

If Tywin is down with the rebellion from the start I don't think Aerys would have the time to fabricate and place all that wildfire because I don't see the Pyromancers storing a "blow-up-KL"-worth of Wildfire in King's Landing, what with the lot of them living there.

3 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

I also think Tywin would have remarried to try to create another heir to replace Tyrion. (Perhaps Lysa Tully??).

Jaime dying might put a lot of pressure on Tywin to remarry that's for sure. Lysa sore of makes sense, Ned did "inherit" the match with Cat and I don't think Hoster would want Tyrion-Lysa if he could have Tywin-Lysa. That said I don't think Lysa would do very well in that marriage, Tywin is harsh and about as old as her dad.

6 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Okay, interestjng thought. Let's say Eddard is the first there still and dies in the wildfire in King's Landing. This means Catelyn becomes acting Lord of Winterfell until Robb comes of age. Sansa, Arya, Bran, and Rickon are never born. With Winterfell more vulnerable, Benjen Stark might not join the Night's Watch. Eddard never shows up at the Tower of Joy. The Kingsguard flee across he sea with Jon Targaryen. It's getting too complicated at this point, Hard to guess how things will go. Robert would hate the Targaryens even more after Eddard's death. 

Oh yes, things could spin off wildly from just the minor tragedy of a squier dying while fighting some bandits.

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5 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Robert would become king of cooked flesh and ashes , when King's Landing is set ablaze . Varys ,Pycelle and Allister Thorne , perhaps Tywin too .

Maybe but there is about a year, maybe more, between the two events things could change a lot so I don't think King's Landing going boom is etched in stone.

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53 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Cersei marries Lancel

No offence but that could not happen. Lancer is born in 282. 

I do not believe that Tywin could wait 13-14 years to marry his daughter and nephew, Cersei wouldn't be just yet infertile but that is just too long to wait on a pretty small window where they could have kids. Marrying her to another Lannister maybe but not Lancel.

Also considering all the dynastic alliances and what not during the pre-rebellion era could cut of Cersei from a lot of potential matches by just waiting.

59 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Tywin would possibly sit out the war, so no sack of KL.

Do you think so? I think both sides would have better hooks to try and drag the lion out the rock with marriage matches for Tywin and Cersei.

59 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Since Elia and her children will die in the explosion and not with Tywin's command Ned's relationship with Bob will not sour and Ned will also not develop a dislike for Lannisters.

This would be a very interesting situation. Maybe Ned join the small council and makes Benjen take the role as Stark in Winterfell?

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