DMC Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Altherion said: That's interesting because by the time the race was down to three candidates (Trump, Cruz and Kasich), most of Trump's wins were either 50%+ (in which case he wins every pairing even if we assume that reducing the field nets him no additional voters at all) or pretty close to it. Yeah it's important to note that the last stage - post Super Tuesday - still had Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, and Carson in the survey (even though the later dropped out three days later, literally during when we were running it). 5 minutes ago, Altherion said: First, the various states vote on different dates separated from first to last by around half a year. This gives candidates who are not well-known nationally a chance, but it also means that votes in some states are worth a whole lot more than in others. Second, a significant number of states chooses candidates via caucuses rather than primaries which means, among other things, the lack of a secret ballot. I suspect that most people who debate the merits of an ideal voting system would agree that US presidential candidate selection is nowhere close to anything of the sort. These are both true - especially the first - but I still think there's normative worth for caucuses damnit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
felice Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 24 minutes ago, dmc515 said: Right, but there's no reason to assume plurality - and especially majority - systems do not render the Condorcet winner in two party systems (in which the set - or candidates - is inherently going to be smaller) at the same rate as any other voting system. In a two party system, sure, but in most cases having only two parties is a symptom of FPP voting, not a natural state of affairs that makes plurality voting a suitable choice. Plurality voting presents a nearly insurmountable barrier to any third party building support, since it cannibalises the support of the "lesser evil" and increases the chance of victory for the "greater evil". It's a bad, bad thing. When there are naturally only two options, eg something like the Brexit vote, FPP and ranked voting are logically equivalent (whichever you don't vote for is de facto your second choice, and there's a winner in the first round of counting). 24 minutes ago, dmc515 said: Trump won the plurality vote, but I distinctly remember he consistently lost in the pairwise preferences to Bush, Kasich, Cruz, and Rubio. I think he beat Christie and Paul while they were around - obviously there was attrition between the stages. Don't remember with Carson, think I blocked it out. It's hard to remember who was "leading" the pairwise matchups. I think Bush and Rubio. In terms of the ranked, Rubio and later Cruz were the leaders. I suspect a majority of GOP primary voters would have been happier with Rubio or Cruz as their presidential candidate, even if there was no Condorcet winner... 24 minutes ago, dmc515 said: Honestly, all this work was done over two years ago, so I'd really have to go digging in my dropbox or ask one of said colleagues to know for sure. No need for that, it's just idle curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, felice said: In a two party system, sure, but in most cases having only two parties is a symptom of FPP voting, not a natural state of affairs that makes plurality voting a suitable choice. Plurality voting presents a nearly insurmountable barrier to any third party building support, since it cannibalises the support of the "lesser evil" and increases the chance of victory for the "greater evil". It's a bad, bad thing. Of course - this was literally my point in the discussion with @Yukle. In an ideal world, I prefer PR, but I'm a pragmatist and that's never gonna happen in the US. Further, I'm also cognizant of how quickly the instability of multiparty systems can perpetuate centrifugal tendencies that lead to upheaval - particularly in large and diverse democracies. So, no, I'm not entirely sure it's a "bad, bad thing," or even a "lesser evil." 8 minutes ago, felice said: I suspect a majority of GOP primary voters would have been happier with Rubio or Cruz as their presidential candidate, even if there was no Condorcet winner I suspect a majority of GOP primary voters would have preferred any of the other 7 candidates mentioned at the outset, expect perhaps Carson. So 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 So after last Tuesday's primaries Wasserman updated Cook's House ratings. We got 200 Dem seats if you count the leaners and tossups - which number 9 total, then a whole 50 seats GOP seats that are either tossup or lean. Those 50 seats include 11 that are open. I like those odds. And down the stretch they come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Guess Robert DeNiro is a bit pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Perfect: http://www.rugbyrebels.co/board/download/file.php?id=531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, LongRider said: Guess Robert DeNiro is a bit pissed. RoBERT DeZERO! Of the FAILING @TonyAwards got a STANDING OVATION more people clapping than have EVER CLAPPED! SAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, Which Tyler said: Perfect: http://www.rugbyrebels.co/board/download/file.php?id=531 That picture is going to win most photoshopped of the year (decade?) by a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, DMBouazizi said: That picture is going to win most photoshopped of the year (decade?) by a mile. It's classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, LongRider said: It's classic. You know that photo of Churchill, Stalin, and Roosevelt at Yalta? Yeah. We don't get photos like that no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Just now, Jace, The Sugarcube said: You know that photo of Churchill, Stalin, and Roosevelt at Yalta? Yeah. We don't get photos like that no more. In hindsight, I'm not sure that's something to strive for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Jace, The Sugarcube said: You know that photo of Churchill, Stalin, and Roosevelt at Yalta? Yeah. We don't get photos like that no more. No but Bing does. https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=photo+of+churchill%2c+stalin%2c+and+roosevelt+at+yalta%3f&id=4B9D05FD617FA1D6900636FCB748A799408CBA6E&FORM=WNSIPR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 1 minute ago, DMBouazizi said: In hindsight, I'm not sure that's something to strive for. Better to be at the table than dancing in front of it wearing motley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Jace, The Sugarcube said: Better to be at the table than dancing in front of it wearing motley. Or have your 'deal' splattered all over your head. Can I just say I'm sick of Tantrum Baby Man and his fucking deals. What a croc, his deals are shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, LongRider said: Or have your 'deal' splattered all over your head. Can I just say I'm sick of Tantrum Baby Man and his fucking deals. What a croc, his deals are shit. The real art is dealing with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, Jace, The Sugarcube said: Better to be at the table than dancing in front of it wearing motley. Really not sure bout that, both in asoiaf and the US. Regardless, the point was more about Stalin, the initiation of the Cold War - and particularly the fact between FDR and Churchill, the first was dead and the second sacked shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, DMBouazizi said: Really not sure bout that, both in asoiaf and the US. Regardless, the point was more about Stalin, the initiation of the Cold War - and particularly the fact between FDR and Churchill, the first was dead and the second sacked shortly thereafter. Fair enough. Never let it be Jace who suggests Patton was wrong about the Soviets. Maybe about the SS, but not the Reds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 NPR is reporting that 45 is planning to leave Singapore earlier than planned, and he hasn't even met with Kim yet. What a deal maker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, LongRider said: NPR is reporting that 45 is planning to leave Singapore earlier than planned, and he hasn't even met with Kim yet. What a deal maker! The best deals are the ones never struck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 39 minutes ago, LongRider said: NPR is reporting that 45 is planning to leave Singapore earlier than planned, and he hasn't even met with Kim yet. What a deal maker! Once they told him Obama had lived there he scheduled the next trip out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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