DMC Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, كالدب said: Depends a lot on what the US does to punish people dealing with Iran - if the US carries out their threats, those increased trade rates disappear entirely. Certainly does. I think Trumps actions (e.g. the ZTE deal) betray his tough talk in that regard, but we'll see. Not incidentally, the Senate is moving to block the administration's ZTE deal: Quote But now a bipartisan group of US senators is seeking to reverse Trump's decision and re-impose the export ban. The Wall Street Journal reports that the legislators have reached a deal to attach a ZTE export ban to the National Defense Authorization Act, a "must-pass" bill that authorizes funding for the military. 5 minutes ago, كالدب said: That's probably the right thing for congress to do anyways - they should always have been the ones front and center for these longer-term deals, and they need to claw back that power so that they're a bit more relevant and balancing. Not gonna hold my breath on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 And @S John, here's what I mean by breaking the cycle. How is what happened yesterday different than 25 years ago?https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/1006430178787151872 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted June 12, 2018 Author Share Posted June 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said: I am becoming thoroughly sick and tired of certain Americans. All weekend I’ve been thinking of what American goods I am going to boycott. And I’m feeling better and better about not attending Worldcon this year. 1 hour ago, TheKitttenGuard said: That will be one of the greatest Trolling moves ever. There was a tweet to paraphase "Somewhere a Jordan fan is saying "None of Lebron teammates ever facilitated a diplomatic breakthrough, that why Jordan the GOAT." I believe it is not just Kim Jung-Un is a big basketball fan but of the '90s Jordan Bull teams. Dude, give J.R. time. A man who can't remember the score during the NBA Finals is absolutely Noble material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Frog Eater said: We haven't given them anything. You all are acting like something concrete was going to come from an initial meeting. Its just a first step in a long process. We acted like something concrete would come from the meeting for months when the GOP were pushing the Nobel Prize on Trump because that's how these things generally work. Negotiators and diplomats work with foreign governments to hammer the fine points of a deal (over the course of years) and the heads of states then meet with assurances written down and ready to be signed. They don't normally go into an initial meeting with a head of state, especially a brutal dictator who has killed and enslaved millions of their own and call them wonderful leaders who is loved by their populace and loves their country immensely and get nothing in return. That meeting, in of itself, is a big deal. It brings legitimacy to Kim and NK that Kim and his father before him have been craving for decades. As for giving up nothing, this might be true if you believe nothing Trump said, which is a fair interpretation. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 As a non American, I’m totally fine with the NK thing, because my main fear was Trump’s desire to escalate to war for street cred. So, this isn’t that, and that’s one relief. And, more, in isolation I hope he gets praised because if he gets slammed he’ll cancel everything on Twitter and we’re back to escalation. Bigger picture, it’s kinda terrifying that he has to be treated like a spoiled 7 year old with a nuclear arsenal, and that almost certainly means more bad things to come, but for now this isn’t one of them. And a,so him getting cred has countless negative repercussions in other areas. But just looking at NK/Trump alone, we have for the moment seen Trump somewhat ratcheting down what he had previously ratcheted up. That said, if I were an American or an interventionist i’d be pretty confused at his negotiating strategy, as he kinda sacrificed a lot of his trump cards for virtually no gain. People saying that those trump cards weren’t all that significant in the first place probably haven’t studied IR, because diplomatic leverage only exists in context, and giving up what leverages you do possess is something you do for ~ gain. Because after that, what cards are you left to play? You can always threaten to tip the playing table and go to war, of course, but short of that the kinds of things you can use to reach compromise are composed of the kinds of things Trump gave away. I suppose there is now the possibility to introduce trade concessions, and since Trump seems to be alienating all of the US’s traditional partners, maybe he thinks NK will be some new market he’s going to open up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 46 minutes ago, James Arryn said: As a non American, I’m totally fine with the NK thing, because my main fear was Trump’s desire to escalate to war for street cred. So, this isn’t that, and that’s one relief. And, more, in isolation I hope he gets praised because if he gets slammed he’ll cancel everything on Twitter and we’re back to escalation. Bigger picture, it’s kinda terrifying that he has to be treated like a spoiled 7 year old with a nuclear arsenal, and that almost certainly means more bad things to come, but for now this isn’t one of them. And a,so him getting cred has countless negative repercussions in other areas. But just looking at NK/Trump alone, we have for the moment seen Trump somewhat ratcheting down what he had previously ratcheted up. That said, if I were an American or an interventionist i’d be pretty confused at his negotiating strategy, as he kinda sacrificed a lot of his trump cards for virtually no gain. People saying that those trump cards weren’t all that significant in the first place probably haven’t studied IR, because diplomatic leverage only exists in context, and giving up what leverages you do possess is something you do for ~ gain. Because after that, what cards are you left to play? You can always threaten to tip the playing table and go to war, of course, but short of that the kinds of things you can use to reach compromise are composed of the kinds of things Trump gave away. I suppose there is now the possibility to introduce trade concessions, and since Trump seems to be alienating all of the US’s traditional partners, maybe he thinks NK will be some new market he’s going to open up. Trump basically rolled over and let Kim rub his tummy for the equivalent of "don't worry, I won't come in your mouth." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 47 minutes ago, James Arryn said: As a non American, I’m totally fine with the NK thing, because my main fear was Trump’s desire to escalate to war for street cred. So, this isn’t that, and that’s one relief. Except in the almost inevitability of Un eventually spurning Trump, that may very well lead to Trump exacerbating his hawkish position. Hell hath no fury like an orangutan scorned. 49 minutes ago, James Arryn said: I suppose there is now the possibility to introduce trade concessions, and since Trump seems to be alienating all of the US’s traditional partners, maybe he thinks NK will be some new market he’s going to open up. LOL - "I traded off the west as partners for North Korea's valuable commodities!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Frog Eater said: We haven't given them anything. You all are acting like something concrete was going to come from an initial meeting. Its just a first step in a long process. It sends the message that you develop nukes, you get a seat at the table. As soon as they test nukes, they get a sit down with the president. He's not giving up his nukes. This whole thing is a farce. If something positive comes from it great, but we all know that's not going to be the case. My bet is Kim feels emboldened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukle Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Why do people keep saying that North Korea didn't get anything?! THEY GOT AN ENDORSEMENT FOR USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO FORCE THE WORLD TO ACCEPT CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY! That's utterly despicable! They got China to end most of the remaining sanctions - and keep in mind it's only Chinese oil that is keeping them going. And it looks like the USA will stop military exercises with South Korea. Trump gets his real estate investments on Korean coasts and China gets the South China Sea. This is so stupidly transparent! This is NOT a good day! This is the day the USA allowed evil to triumph in the world, and the world offered applause for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 33 minutes ago, maarsen said: Trump basically rolled over and let Kim rub his tummy for the equivalent of "don't worry, I won't come in your mouth." Your mixing of metaphors is seriously concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Don't say Trump got nothing. I'm sure his family will get some sweet real estate deals out of it. And maybe DPRK security services will kidnap some concubines for Donnie Jr, who's getting divorced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukle Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 40 minutes ago, Which Tyler said: Your mixing of metaphors is seriously concerning My humour algorithm is a bit off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Trump didn't give away the store. He just gave away the cash register. Everyone is so thrilled that he didn't immediately begin removing American troops or start a war. I suppose we must also give him credit for not spewing out love for Nazis suddenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted June 12, 2018 Author Share Posted June 12, 2018 3 hours ago, كالدب said: In any case, countries are going to be very much distrusting the US to make and hold the kinds of deals that the Iran deal was, and are likely looking at NAFTA (which despite negotiations failing is still in existence) as the way to go forward. That's probably the right thing for congress to do anyways - they should always have been the ones front and center for these longer-term deals, and they need to claw back that power so that they're a bit more relevant and balancing. Something to add to this is what happens if Trump gives Kim a sweetheart deal and then the next President rescinds it? I wonder if undo your predecessor's agreements could become the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Something to add to this is what happens if Trump gives Kim a sweetheart deal and then the next President rescinds it? I wonder if undo your predecessor's agreements could become the new normal. One can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted June 12, 2018 Author Share Posted June 12, 2018 1 hour ago, DMBouazizi said: Except in the almost inevitability of Un eventually spurning Trump, that may very well lead to Trump exacerbating his hawkish position. Hell hath no fury like an orangutan scorned. My thoughts as well. This could backfire big time. The only hope that Kim doesn't do what all the Kims have done in the past is that unlike his father and grandfather, Un thinks Trump really is crazy enough to nuke Pyongyang. He is, BTW. 1 hour ago, Yukle said: Why do people keep saying that North Korea didn't get anything?! THEY GOT AN ENDORSEMENT FOR USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO FORCE THE WORLD TO ACCEPT CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY! That's utterly despicable! They got China to end most of the remaining sanctions - and keep in mind it's only Chinese oil that is keeping them going. And it looks like the USA will stop military exercises with South Korea. Trump gets his real estate investments on Korean coasts and China gets the South China Sea. This is so stupidly transparent! This is NOT a good day! This is the day the USA allowed evil to triumph in the world, and the world offered applause for it! Please correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't they also get the U.S. to agree to not apply any more sanctions while Trump and Un make a deal? *cough* stalling *cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Yukle said: Why do people keep saying that North Korea didn't get anything?! THEY GOT AN ENDORSEMENT FOR USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO FORCE THE WORLD TO ACCEPT CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY! That's utterly despicable! While I agree with this overall - and obviously agree this was a very bad day with the US president giving up way too much nothing (except perhaps personal gain) - it kind of misses the forest for the trees. If Trump was able to reach a deal analogous to Obama's Iran deal, that'd be a good thing, regardless of DPRK's human rights record. Remember it was Obama that caught so much shit for saying he'd initiate negotiations with any country without preconditions during the 2008 primary. The reason for that is if you're not willing to use military force (and in 99% of cases I don't think you should), diplomacy with bad actors is the only way to change their behavior. The fact that achieving such a goal will often entail legitimizing abhorrent regimes and those that pursue nukes is just the way the cookie crumbles. There's nothing wrong with that in theory. In Trump's practice, well, obviously he's leaving much to be desired thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/07/lina-khan-antitrust/561743/ How to Fight Amazon (Before You Turn 29) Lina Khan has a novel theory about monopolies—and her sights are set squarely on the company. Quote Amazon’s history seems to belie this claim. For more than a decade, Wall Street allowed the company to plow any profits into price discounts. Partly as a result, Amazon has grown so large that it can undercut other companies just by announcing that it will soon compete with them. When Amazon purchased Whole Foods, its market cap rose by $15.6 billion—some $2 billion more than it paid for the chain. Meanwhile, the rest of the grocery industry immediately lost $37 billion in market value. (Amazon protests that it has no control over how investors value its competitors.) When a company has such power, Khan believes, it will almost inevitably wield that power far and wide, distorting not just the market itself, but the whole of American life. With sufficient power, companies can commission studies, rewrite regulations, bulldoze neighborhoods, and impoverish education and welfare systems by securing billions in sweetheart tax cuts. When a company comes to monopolize a market—when it grows so big that it can threaten other industries just by entering them—it ceases to be merely a company. It becomes an institution so powerful that it can rule over people like a government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Oh man, what a bullshitter. McConnell: 'Everybody' in Senate likes pre-existing condition safeguards https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/12/senate-pre-existing-conditions-health-care-mcconnell-621128 Quote Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said “everybody” in the Senate wants to preserve consumer protections for people with pre-existing conditions, an Obamacare provision that the Trump administration last week said is unconstitutional and should be struck down in court. “Everybody I know in the Senate — everybody — is in favor of maintaining coverage for pre-existing conditions,” McConnell told reporters in the Capitol. “There is no difference in opinion about that whatsoever.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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