Most Powerful Houses- what evidence?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I'm forever trying to pinpoint the exact strength of both Dorne and the Stormlands.

From the beginning, we are told that Dorne is capable of fielding 50k spears (reasonable given that both their men and women fight.  This is what Tyrion and likely the realm believes they can muster.  Quentyn relays this number to Dany when tries to court her in Meereen.  However, Doran tells Arianne that their armies are smaller than their enemies believe them to be, and that Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms.  However, the Vulture King Amassed a Dornish army 30k strong, with hundreds of knights and several thousand spearman.  And this is without Princess Deria taking the field.  She publicly denounced the Vulture King but did nothing to stop him.  This would certainly suggest that Dorne can field 50k men/women if it chose to do so.

Renly took approximately 20k men with him to the Reach to link up with Mace Tyrell's 60k.  House Swann did not muster, nor did House Dondarrion, as its lord had taken up with the BWOB.  As a whole, I would think the Marcher Lords stayed put to check any Dornish aggression and 20k seemed to be more than enough when added to the Reach forces.  I'm estimating that between Houses Caron, Swann, and Dondarrion, there should be another 10k fresh troops in the Stormlands.  The Dondarrion's alone took 800 knights and 4k foot into the mountains to root out the Vulture King.  

Both of these cases would seem to have major implications for Aegon and Connington in the coming battles, as the Stormlands and Dorne would seem to be home to major forces that could be won over.  Thoughts?  

[Lord Varys]

On 7/4/2018 at 8:22 PM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

I'm forever trying to pinpoint the exact strength of both Dorne and the Stormlands.

Just wait until we get some good numbers. But then, we most likely will never get them ;-).

On 7/4/2018 at 8:22 PM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

From the beginning, we are told that Dorne is capable of fielding 50k spears (reasonable given that both their men and women fight.  

The Dornishmen are my argument why this number might be true, too. In addition there is the fact that Daeron I threw around that number when talking about his war to conquer Dorne - but on Dornish soil many more Dornishmen and -women fought against the oppressors than would have been able to march across the mountains to fight in some war in the Stormlands or the Reach.

Doran's game is for the Iron Throne. He plays a big game, and he knows he cannot win that game by sending out Dornish armies. He needs allies. If the enemy invaded he could fight the way his ancestors did, but that's not what he wants considering that it will mean death and suffering for his people. And he cares about them.

On 7/4/2018 at 8:22 PM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

However, the Vulture King Amassed a Dornish army 30k strong, with hundreds of knights and several thousand spearman.  And this is without Princess Deria taking the field.  She publicly denounced the Vulture King but did nothing to stop him.  This would certainly suggest that Dorne can field 50k men/women if it chose to do so.

Yes, that's very likely considering that the only Dornish noblemen in the Vulture King's rabble were Wyls. A lot of smallfolk which would have fought in an official Dornish army may have joined the Vulture King but the fact that no prominent Dornish house joined this man - and that pretty much no knights and noblemen stood with him - means that there must have been a large reserve of Dornishmen back in Dorne.

If Deria's entire strength aside from the nobles had been with the Vulture King her charade wouldn't have worked. Not even Aenys would have stomached that.

But we have to keep in mind that this was 250 years ago. The numbers might be different during the reign of Doran Martell.

On 7/4/2018 at 8:22 PM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Renly took approximately 20k men with him to the Reach to link up with Mace Tyrell's 60k.  House Swann did not muster, nor did House Dondarrion, as its lord had taken up with the BWOB.  As a whole, I would think the Marcher Lords stayed put to check any Dornish aggression and 20k seemed to be more than enough when added to the Reach forces.  I'm estimating that between Houses Caron, Swann, and Dondarrion, there should be another 10k fresh troops in the Stormlands.  The Dondarrion's alone took 800 knights and 4k foot into the mountains to root out the Vulture King.

Difficult to guess any of that, but it is pretty clear that it is very likely that there is a considerable reserve left there.

On 7/4/2018 at 8:22 PM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Both of these cases would seem to have major implications for Aegon and Connington in the coming battles, as the Stormlands and Dorne would seem to be home to major forces that could be won over.  Thoughts?  

The numbers are likely not that important as the talk about the martial prowess of the men of the Marches. Yandel tells us that the best archers of Westeros come from there (and Anguy is sort of proof for that) and the constant warfare there forged the knights there in very capable fighters. If the Marcher Lords join Prince Aegon after he takes Storm's End then they could be there in time to stand with him against the Tyrell army. Not sure if the Dornish army in the Boneway could be there in time - that would depend on how quickly Mace/Randyll react and how quickly Arianne makes her decision.

But I think Aegon will have the Dornish Marches (and others) after his stand at Storm's End. Storm's End is one of the strongest castles in the Realm and anyone taking this castle is a large player. People want to believe Rhaegar's son is still alive, and if the guy who took Storm's End claims he is Rhaegar's son a lot of people are going to want to believe that story.

[Corvo the Crow]

That 30K means nothing as it is almost entirely made of rabble with no training, no discipline, and very likely no proper gear.

Wintertown alone houses some 15000 during winter or was it more? Apart from permanent dwellers, most of it is made up of the youth of the clans and some nearby towns and villages. Does that mean Stark lands and M clans alone are able to raise that number?

Professional soldiers or at least properly armed and trained levies are one thing, rabble gathered en masse with no training and equipment is another. They are no better than Mance's Wildlings and excluding the seversl thousand spearmen in fact worse than them since mance were drilling some discipline into his men.

 

Battle of GF is a very good perspective on Westerosi armies, it shows us they are either made up of professionals or by the time they reach the battlefield they are trained so well they are near as good as professionals in what they do. Not to mention the equipment.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

On 7/5/2018 at 11:06 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

That 30K means nothing as it is almost entirely made of rabble with no training, no discipline, and very likely no proper gear.

 

Well the bulk of every houses forces are made up of small folk with no formal training.  They come when their lord commands it.  The point is that given time, this amount of personnel could be mustered, equipped and trained for battle.

[Lord Varys]

On 7/6/2018 at 6:06 AM, Corvo the Crow said:

That 30K means nothing as it is almost entirely made of rabble with no training, no discipline, and very likely no proper gear.

This is rabble which marched into the Dornish Marches not only from the Red Mountains but also from the Dornish Sands, which means a pretty big distance for 'rabble' - which usually doesn't have the resources or permission to travel this far. Peasants sit on the land, they don't run off to war for no good reason.

In addition, this 'rabble' stormed the walls of Blackhaven, one of the most formidable castles in the Dornish Marches. Those men may not have been professional soldiers, and there may not have been many knights among them, but they did have discipline.

Quote

Wintertown alone houses some 15000 during winter or was it more? Apart from permanent dwellers, most of it is made up of the youth of the clans and some nearby towns and villages. Does that mean Stark lands and M clans alone are able to raise that number?

A completely different scenario. The Winter Town is a place not only for men but for entire families looking for refuge during hard winters. In summer essentially nobody lives in the Winter Town.

Quote

Professional soldiers or at least properly armed and trained levies are one thing, rabble gathered en masse with no training and equipment is another. They are no better than Mance's Wildlings and excluding the seversl thousand spearmen in fact worse than them since mance were drilling some discipline into his men.

I very much doubt people with 'no discipline' took it upon themselves to march to the Dornish Marches just because some 'Vulture King' they never met told them to do that. If you have no discipline, no weapons, no provisions, etc. you don't do stuff like that.

Quote

Battle of GF is a very good perspective on Westerosi armies, it shows us they are either made up of professionals or by the time they reach the battlefield they are trained so well they are near as good as professionals in what they do. Not to mention the equipment.

Professional armies have more professional soldiers among them, but the impression one gets is that those men mostly number in the hundreds (or lower thousands in the truly huge hosts). Most of the men fighting in war are untrained and not well-equipped. The very fact that war is pretty much a thing of the past and never long sees to that. Most people in Westeros never receive a call to arms in their lifetime, and such wars they fight are usually short. How could they train a lot in such a scenario?

[Ran]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

This is rabble which marched into the Dornish Marches not only from the Red Mountains but also from the Dornish Sands, which means a pretty big distance for 'rabble' - which usually doesn't have the resources or permission to travel this far. Peasants sit on the land, they don't run off to war for no good reason.

 

The Peasants Crusade was likely an inspiration for this event. Tens of thousands of people, largely untrained peasants,  made it as far as Anatolia.

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, Switzeran said:

The Peasants Crusade was likely an inspiration for this event. Tens of thousands of people, largely untrained peasants,  made it as far as Anatolia.

Could very well be. But one wonders how some 'Vulture King' whose cause was officially attacked by the Princess of Dorne could have had the same authority as the Holy Mother Church and the Pope in the middle ages. Did the Vulture King have preachers all through the land telling the peasants to avenge Dorne on the Targaryens? Most likely not.

And one assumes that many of the Dornish houses not accompanying the rabble were not all that happy if all the villages were empty and all their fields untended - making it not very likely that men went to war who were needed at home to tend the fields and bring in the harvest.

I don't doubt that most of those Dornishmen weren't all that well-trained men, but if they were truly 30,000 at the peak of their power, with essentially no powerful Dornish house joining him, the ultimate strength must be higher than 30,000. I mean, the combined strength of landed knights (and their retainers), household knights, men-at-arms of the houses of all Dorne surely should be higher than 10,000 men, perhaps even more.

But then - perhaps we should take the number of the 30,000 men with a grain of salt. It is not that Gyldayn was there and he doesn't specify that he got the number from some guy who counted them all...

How little strength of numbers counts when you face a professional army is later shown when Maegor's lords butcher the Poor Fellows at Stonebridge. If you have a sufficient number of archers and heavy horse you will crush pretty much any army - as the Stormlords and Marcher Lords also prove when they deal with the Vulture King's rabble. But this doesn't mean 'the rabble' was completely untrained or incompetent. 

[Corvo the Crow]

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Professional armies have more professional soldiers among them, but the impression one gets is that those men mostly number in the hundreds (or lower thousands in the truly huge hosts). Most of the men fighting in war are untrained and not well-equipped.

And yet it's not what we see when we are shown rank on rank of men in mail marching and when those men are moving to battle in formation. The biggest battle we see only has a handful of rabble.

Sending off poor trained, ill disciplined men in improper equipment is the surest way to have fewer mouths in winter but it's the surest way to have these men break and take the professional ones with them when they flee also. So it's the most assured way to lose your battle.

[Lord Varys]

30 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

And yet it's not what we see when we are shown rank on rank of men in mail marching and when those men are moving to battle in formation. The biggest battle we see only has a handful of rabble.

We never *see* those men as such. We get overviews where this or that character mentions there is a group of men wearing this or that, but that's not the same as a detailed description of thousands of men in an army.

I do not doubt that there are hundreds (or with really wealthy lords) even thousands of men-at-arms wearing the arms, colors, and mail of their lords (just think of the various City Watches) but the average smaller/lesser lord wouldn't have the coin or resources for that kind of thing.

And there is a point where the realism breaks down. I mean, how the hell did get all the Blacks and Green the personal arms of Rhaenyra and Aegon II as quickly as they did? How is it that Edmyn Tully bore the three-headed dragon of House Targaryen when the arms had just been invented?

Is there a magical banner-making factory hidden in a transdimensional realm next to Westeros?

Marching in formation isn't something that's all that difficult to learn. Knowing how to resist a continuous rain of arrows and a charge of armored knights is something different. And that's how battles are won in Westeros.

30 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Sending off poor trained, ill disciplined men in improper equipment is the surest way to have fewer mouths in winter but it's the surest way to have these men break and take the professional ones with them when they flee also. So it's the most assured way to lose your battle.

The Northmen do send out their veterans in winter. The men who are most likely not to live all that long and who are eager to find one last cause worthy to die for. Some of them might also be useless mouths with no families and friends, but the majority of the men who go do that for the sake of their families.

You see that with the talk of the clansmen in the ADwD chapters. They look forward to battle. They do not care whether they live or die if they can take some Boltons with them.

The problem with too many untrained men is clear, but that cannot be helped, apparently. Westeros doesn't have a large war industry. I mean, when the Dance broke Westeros hadn't see a proper war for generations. 

[cpg2016]

On 7/4/2018 at 2:22 PM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

I'm forever trying to pinpoint the exact strength of both Dorne and the Stormlands.

From the beginning, we are told that Dorne is capable of fielding 50k spears (reasonable given that both their men and women fight.  This is what Tyrion and likely the realm believes they can muster.  Quentyn relays this number to Dany when tries to court her in Meereen.  However, Doran tells Arianne that their armies are smaller than their enemies believe them to be, and that Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms.  However, the Vulture King Amassed a Dornish army 30k strong, with hundreds of knights and several thousand spearman.  And this is without Princess Deria taking the field.  She publicly denounced the Vulture King but did nothing to stop him.  This would certainly suggest that Dorne can field 50k men/women if it chose to do so.

I think we can safely assume Dorne cannot raise that many men.  Doran Martell tells us outright that he cannot raise 50,000 spears, and probably not particularly close to that, given his attitude and words in AFFC Ch. 40.  He has zero reason to lie to Arianne about this.  That the Vulture King could raise 30,000 isn't insane, however.  First, as others have said, certainly many of them were just random brigands and peasants joining the cause, not trained armsmen or even half-trained levies.  Second, there is some reason to expect that the population of Dorne has been in decline and/or stagnant in the Targaryen era.  During the Dragon's Wroth and especially after Daeron's assault on Dorne, it makes sense that Dorne would lose large numbers of people and this would cause a downward spiral of population decline.

On 7/4/2018 at 2:22 PM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Renly took approximately 20k men with him to the Reach to link up with Mace Tyrell's 60k.  House Swann did not muster, nor did House Dondarrion, as its lord had taken up with the BWOB.  As a whole, I would think the Marcher Lords stayed put to check any Dornish aggression and 20k seemed to be more than enough when added to the Reach forces.  I'm estimating that between Houses Caron, Swann, and Dondarrion, there should be another 10k fresh troops in the Stormlands.  The Dondarrion's alone took 800 knights and 4k foot into the mountains to root out the Vulture King.  

I've read theories that say that the Marcher lords, and the Stormlands in general, split between the Iron Throne, Renly-then-Stannis, and a number who just stayed home during the WOT5K.  Which would make a lot of sense; Renly raises 20,000 or so, and it sort of makes sense that the remainder split between the Iron Throne and staying out of it.  We hear lots of those Houses with a foot in multiple camps (like the Swanns).

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

On 7/10/2018 at 3:17 PM, cpg2016 said:

I think we can safely assume Dorne cannot raise that many men.  Doran Martell tells us outright that he cannot raise 50,000 spears, and probably not particularly close to that, given his attitude and words in AFFC Ch. 40.  He has zero reason to lie to Arianne about this.  That the Vulture King could raise 30,000 isn't insane, however.  First, as others have said, certainly many of them were just random brigands and peasants joining the cause, not trained armsmen or even half-trained levies.  Second, there is some reason to expect that the population of Dorne has been in decline and/or stagnant in the Targaryen era.  During the Dragon's Wroth and especially after Daeron's assault on Dorne, it makes sense that Dorne would lose large numbers of people and this would cause a downward spiral of population decline.

I

Post-Dragon's Wroth and post-peace treaty with the Targaryans, Dorne experienced relative peace, not becoming part of the realm until Daeron the Good's reign.  They stayed out of the Dance of the Dragons and likely other conflicts that devastated the realm.  Thats plenty of time to recover population.  Remember also that Quentyn relays the 50k spears to Dany.  Plenty of reasons not to lie to her and risk her wroth. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

24 minutes ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Post-Dragon's Wroth and post-peace treaty with the Targaryans, Dorne experienced relative peace, not becoming part of the realm until Daeron the Good's reign.  They stayed out of the Dance of the Dragons and likely other conflicts that devastated the realm.  Thats plenty of time to recover population.  Remember also that Quentyn relays the 50k spears to Dany.  Plenty of reasons not to lie to her and risk her wroth. 

Plenty of reason to inflate the numbers to try and impress her. However I agree there is no evidence to suggest that the Dornish population today is markedly different from 300 years ago.

[Lord Varys]

Dorne's population should actually be significantly lower in 37 AC then it was during the Conquest because we know that the First Dornish War took a grievous toll on the Dornishmen. They fought a war nearly a decade that saw most of their population centers destroyed by dragonfire multiple times, not to mention the actual deaths caused by the fighting.

The single generation between 14 AC and 37 AC is not even remotely enough to allow them to recover from all their losses. The children born before 25 AC may have been old enough to join the Vulture King, but those born later would have been too young.

Thus it is pretty obvious that Dorne would have been weaker in 37 AC under Princess Deria then it was under Princess Meria in 2-1 BC, and considerably weaker than it is today under Prince Doran. Dorne has suffered no major losses in the last century as far as we know (they weren't even hit by the Great Spring Sickness in 209 AC) and since the union with the Iron Throne during the reign of the Good King it should have been all peace and plenty down in Dorne, just as it was in other places.

The only wars the Dornish fought were against the Stormlands and the Reach, and there wouldn't have been any of those for a hundred years.

14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

However I agree there is no evidence to suggest that the Dornish population today is markedly different from 300 years ago.

There is every reason to believe that the numbers increased. Even if everything else remained the same, fewer wars means fewer death and destruction through wars, and that means the population will inevitably increase. And unlike the northern regions of Westeros the Dornishmen do not suffer from cold or starvation in winter.

They may face droughts and the like more often than other regions, but they are accustomed to that kind of thing and there is no indication that droughts in Dorne kill as many people as hard winters do in the North. Not to mention that there is no indication that Dorne suffered a devastating drought in recent history.

[Free Northman Reborn]

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Dorne's population should actually be significantly lower in 37 AC then it was during the Conquest because we know that the First Dornish War took a grievous toll on the Dornishmen. They fought a war nearly a decade that saw most of their population centers destroyed by dragonfire multiple times, not to mention the actual deaths caused by the fighting.

The single generation between 14 AC and 37 AC is not even remotely enough to allow them to recover from all their losses. The children born before 25 AC may have been old enough to join the Vulture King, but those born later would have been too young.

Thus it is pretty obvious that Dorne would have been weaker in 37 AC under Princess Deria then it was under Princess Meria in 2-1 BC, and considerably weaker than it is today under Prince Doran. Dorne has suffered no major losses in the last century as far as we know (they weren't even hit by the Great Spring Sickness in 209 AC) and since the union with the Iron Throne during the reign of the Good King it should have been all peace and plenty down in Dorne, just as it was in other places.

The only wars the Dornish fought were against the Stormlands and the Reach, and there wouldn't have been any of those for a hundred years.

There is every reason to believe that the numbers increased. Even if everything else remained the same, fewer wars means fewer death and destruction through wars, and that means the population will inevitably increase. And unlike the northern regions of Westeros the Dornishmen do not suffer from cold or starvation in winter.

They may face droughts and the like more often than other regions, but they are accustomed to that kind of thing and there is no indication that droughts in Dorne kill as many people as hard winters do in the North. Not to mention that there is no indication that Dorne suffered a devastating drought in recent history.

Not sure what you are arguing here. No one cares about 37 AC. 37 AC was an anomaly.

Doran says Dorne has the lowest population of the Seven Kingdoms TODAY. If today’s Dorne is more populous than 300 years ago, then Dorne was even weaker comparatively back then. That does not seem likely.

 

[The Grey Wolf]

@Lord Varys

@Free Northman Reborn

I honestly doubt Dorne has fully recovered its pre-Conquest population.

To me it seems clear the Dornish Wars are in terms of destruction a clear parallel to the Mongol Conquest of Persia. 

As for evidence here is what we have:

1. The (false) belief that Dorne can raise 50K spears

The catch being that there must be a reason this is believable, which would imply historically Dorne could raise more than 25K (though not necessarily 50K)

2. House Fowler alone raised 10K during the reign of Garth VII and was intent on conquest, which implies the Dornish were capable (or at least thought they were capable) of holding territory beyond the Red Mountains

3. The First Vulture King raised 30K despite lacking support from pretty much everyone except House Wyl and (covertly) House Martell

Now as for conflicts we have the following:

1. Dornish raiding of the Marches during Aegon's Conquest

2. The First Dornish War (and in particular the Dragon's Wroth)

3. The First Vulture King

4. Other Dornish Wars

5. Intervening in Daemon's War for the Stepstones

6. Raiding the Marches under Aliandra (implied but not confirmed)

7. Daeron I's Conquest of Dorne and the subsequent rebellion (both of which were devastating)

8. The First Blackfyre Rebellion (House Yronwood (and its vassals?) minimum fought for the Black Dragon but didn't show up for the Redgrass Field, which implies that there was a Dornish theater of war which they were preoccupied with)

9. The Second Vulture King, who may or may not have given the Dornish some trouble

10. Third Blackfyre Rebellion (House Yronwood (and its vassals?) minimum fought for the Black Dragon)

11. Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion involved House Yronwood but didn't affect Dorne itself

12. The Dornish may have participated in putting down Lyonel Baratheon's bid for independence since they're neighbors and friends with Aegon V but that is mere speculation on my part

13. War of the Ninepenny Kings (How much the Dornish contributed is unknown but we know for a fact that they did partake in the fighting on the Stepstones)

14. Robert's Rebellion (Dorne contributed 10K to the royalist host, most of whom were bloodied at the Trident, which was a significant blow for the Martells)

 

[Corvo the Crow]

Doran himself says they have nowhere near the supposed 50000 men. Quentyn offering that many spears means nothing as not even Arianne knew they didn't have that kind of shaftpower. And she was the heir who was living in the capital whereas Quentyn wasn't the heir and was warded in Yronwood lands. He may know their power but that's about it.

Also a reminder, Dorne was able to send 10000 men at the very end of the war. It is one of the smallest kingdoms and must have had that army formed already as precaution even though they didn't march it to battle before. Compare this to North, Robb had 19500 men in a very quick gathering and his lands makes up a third of the entire realm.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Not sure what you are arguing here. No one cares about 37 AC. 37 AC was an anomaly.

Says who? 30,000 men are 30,000 men when there were 30,000 men, no?

And as I said, they stormed Blackhaven when they were not yet 30,000 men. They worked as army pretty much the same way the Poor Fellows armies later worked.

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Doran says Dorne has the lowest population of the Seven Kingdoms TODAY. If today’s Dorne is more populous than 300 years ago, then Dorne was even weaker comparatively back then. That does not seem likely.

The size of the population isn't relevant in this context. What's intriguing here that 30,000 men just showed up without anybody forcing them to do this. That is a sign that people were there and able to go to war without the leave or command of their Princess.

But the population of all the Seven Kingdoms would have grown during the reign of the Targaryens meaning that Dorne might be relatively weaker now compared to the other kingdoms than it was back during the Conquest.

3 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

@Lord Varys

@Free Northman Reborn

I honestly doubt Dorne has fully recovered its pre-Conquest population.

To me it seems clear the Dornish Wars are in terms of destruction a clear parallel to the Mongol Conquest of Persia. 

Sorry, but the evidence would, for the most part, not devastate Dorne as such all that much. Sure, men may have left Dorne to fight in this or that Blackfyre Rebellion (the Vulture Kings do not necessarily affect all Dorne) but we don't know how many nor do we have any reason to assume that Dorne was a focal point of any of those wars. The Blackfyres wanted the Iron Throne, not Sunspear.

They got a bloody nose during the Rebellion, sure, but they would have lost only a fraction of the 10,000 men, and that wouldn't have crippled their military capabilities all that much, considering that the boys too young to march with Lewyn would be men grown right now.

Unless Dorne was faced with another catastrophe of Great Spring Sickness size (and while this is possible we have no reason to believe it did happen) Dorne should be in a much better position than those kingdoms who lost so many lives in 209 AC.

47 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Doran himself says they have nowhere near the supposed 50000 men. Quentyn offering that many spears means nothing as not even Arianne knew they didn't have that kind of shaftpower. And she was the heir who was living in the capital whereas Quentyn wasn't the heir and was warded in Yronwood lands. He may know their power but that's about it.

Doran wants to dissuade Arianne from a pointless war. If Dorne started a succession war for the Iron Throne by crowning Myrcella they would inevitably lose in the end, never mind whether they can field 30,000 men, 50,000, or 80,000.

To fight such a war they would have to leave Dorne, and if they leave Dorne they cannot win.

47 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Also a reminder, Dorne was able to send 10000 men at the very end of the war. It is one of the smallest kingdoms and must have had that army formed already as precaution even though they didn't march it to battle before. Compare this to North, Robb had 19500 men in a very quick gathering and his lands makes up a third of the entire realm.

There is no indication to believe that cautious Doran Martell had any inclination to send the bulk of his strength to a king who was blackmailing him and a prince who spit in the face of his own sister.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Says who? 30,000 men are 30,000 men when there were 30,000 men, no?

And as I said, they stormed Blackhaven when they were not yet 30,000 men. They worked as army pretty much the same way the Poor Fellows armies later worked.

The size of the population isn't relevant in this context. What's intriguing here that 30,000 men just showed up without anybody forcing them to do this. That is a sign that people were there and able to go to war without the leave or command of their Princess.

But the population of all the Seven Kingdoms would have grown during the reign of the Targaryens meaning that Dorne might be relatively weaker now compared to the other kingdoms than it was back during the Conquest.

Sorry, but the evidence would, for the most part, not devastate Dorne as such all that much. Sure, men may have left Dorne to fight in this or that Blackfyre Rebellion (the Vulture Kings do not necessarily affect all Dorne) but we don't know how many nor do we have any reason to assume that Dorne was a focal point of any of those wars. The Blackfyres wanted the Iron Throne, not Sunspear.

They got a bloody nose during the Rebellion, sure, but they would have lost only a fraction of the 10,000 men, and that wouldn't have crippled their military capabilities all that much, considering that the boys too young to march with Lewyn would be men grown right now.

Unless Dorne was faced with another catastrophe of Great Spring Sickness size (and while this is possible we have no reason to believe it did happen) Dorne should be in a much better position than those kingdoms who lost so many lives in 209 AC.

Doran wants to dissuade Arianne from a pointless war. If Dorne started a succession war for the Iron Throne by crowning Myrcella they would inevitably lose in the end, never mind whether they can field 30,000 men, 50,000, or 80,000.

To fight such a war they would have to leave Dorne, and if they leave Dorne they cannot win.

There is no indication to believe that cautious Doran Martell had any inclination to send the bulk of his strength to a king who was blackmailing him and a prince who spit in the face of his own sister.

Lord Varys. You seem to take issue with your own arguments, which is why arguing with you can be quite confounding. Your argument seems to change once you realise it doesn’t suit whatever the latest point is you want to make.

Point in case: 37AC. I’m not the one that argued that Dorne’s population in 37AC was an anomaly. YOU are the one who argued at length that due to the wars with the Targaryens, Dorne’s population was at a low point during 37AC, not having recovered yet from the devastation wrought by the Targs.

So you argued feverishly that Dorne’s population in 37AC was lower than 300 years ago, and then when I state the same in the very next post you declare: “Says who? There is no evidence for it!”

Can you see why it is rather exasperating trying to have a coherent argument with you? You seem to start with an intended outcome, and then just string random sub arguments together to support your desired end result. And then those sub arguments change at the drop of a hat if they no longer seem to support your overall position.

[Corvo the Crow]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication to believe that cautious Doran Martell had any inclination to send the bulk of his strength to a king who was blackmailing him and a prince who spit in the face of his own sister.

There is no case to believe a pyromaniac king threatining the LP of Dorne's sister would be pleased with 10000 men if he has 50000.

-Oh hey Doran I'm inclined to see whether you martells are suns and spears, I'll try with your sister if you don't send me some soldiers.

+ Oh noes plz no. I have 50000 but will send 10000 only. That will be enough.

- oh key it's enough.

Remember Barbarey. He sent as few as she dared to Robb, a sane child who is the acting LP on behalf of his father.

Aerys is a king and he is mad. 1/5 would never please him in that context.

 

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Aerys is a king and he is mad. 1/5 would never please him in that context.

How do you know? Rhaegar had more men than Robert at the Trident, anyway. About 40,000 men. Who is to say that Rhaegar wanted to march with 60,000 or 80,000 men to the Trident?

Who is to say that Doran had the time to marshal his full strength (he might have only decided to marshal an army after Aerys II started to blackmail him)? Or that Aerys II was insisting on Doran's entire strength? Or that Aerys II was stupid enough to continue to provoke a man who had already send 10,000 men to his aid? He might break the camel's back and Prince Lewyn might march his 10,000 Dornishmen back home ... or stab Rhaegar in the back during the battle, as Aerys II later actually believed.

In fact, the very idea that a king usually expects 'the full strength' of a lord on the battlefield in any given war scenario is kind of ridiculous. Lords and kings have to be happy that their vassals send them any men at all. 10,000 men sound like a pretty solid number to me, just as about 20,000 Dornishmen are a pretty good number for the two armies Doran has assembled now. Only fools deplete their lands of their entire strength when waging a war.