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Most Powerful Houses- what evidence?


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18 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

There is no case to believe a pyromaniac king threatining the LP of Dorne's sister would be pleased with 10000 men if he has 50000.

-Oh hey Doran I'm inclined to see whether you martells are suns and spears, I'll try with your sister if you don't send me some soldiers.

+ Oh noes plz no. I have 50000 but will send 10000 only. That will be enough.

- oh key it's enough.

Remember Barbarey. He sent as few as she dared to Robb, a sane child who is the acting LP on behalf of his father.

Aerys is a king and he is mad. 1/5 would never please him in that context.

 

It is noteworthy though, Corvo, that none of the kingdoms sent even close to their full strength to fight in the Rebellion. Other than perhaps the Crownlands. 

Where were the Tyrells’ 100,000? They have maybe 10,000 to 20000 or so at the Trident. Maybe a bit more besieging Storm’s End.

Look at Tywin. At first he sends nothing to help Aerys, and when he eventually does supposedly send help to King’s Landing, it is only 12000 men out of his potential 50000 full strength.

The same goes for the Rebels. So I don’t think Dorne’s 10k in the Rebellion is a definitive proof of their power. Other than noting that we have not really seen them raise more than that. 

My view is that Dorne’s strength is around 30k. Which fits with a lot of historical information as well.

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1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Point in case: 37AC. I’m not the one that argued that Dorne’s population in 37AC was an anomaly.

You were the one talking about an anomaly, not I.

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YOU are the one who argued at length that due to the wars with the Targaryens, Dorne’s population was at a low point during 37AC, not having recovered yet from the devastation wrought by the Targs.

That is what the basic facts about the destruction in Dorne as well as the little time that passed indicates.

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So you argued feverishly that Dorne’s population in 37AC was lower than 300 years ago, and then when I state the same in the very next post you declare: “Says who? There is no evidence for it!”

You talk about their strength in later days.

We do know that Dorne must have been weaker in 37 AC than they were during the Conquest, but we have no reason to believe that they were about as strong in 298 AC than they were during the Conquest. In fact, everything we know indicates that the population in Dorne increased during the last three hundred years. That means that the Vulture King's rabble (30,000 Dornishmen) would have been a larger percentage of the overall Dornish population in 37 AC then the same number would be in 298 AC.

And that means it makes little sense to assume Doran Martell can, at maximum, only field 30,000 men.

Now, one can ask about the quality of the men and the like, but again - what kind of men could possibly afford to leave their homes to go to war? And how many lords, landed knights, household knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms are in Dorne in addition to those 30,000 men? Could the Vulture King's rabble not also join any regular army the Martells might field?

And how many men would be such assembled in such an army?

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7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You were the one talking about an anomaly, not I.

That is what the basic facts about the destruction in Dorne as well as the little time that passed indicates.

You talk about their strength in later days.

We do know that Dorne must have been weaker in 37 AC than they were during the Conquest, but we have no reason to believe that they were about as strong in 298 AC than they were during the Conquest. In fact, everything we know indicates that the population in Dorne increased during the last three hundred years. That means that the Vulture King's rabble (30,000 Dornishmen) would have been a larger percentage of the overall Dornish population in 37 AC then the same number would be in 298 AC.

And that means it makes little sense to assume Doran Martell can, at maximum, only field 30,000 men.

Now, one can ask about the quality of the men and the like, but again - what kind of men could possibly afford to leave their homes to go to war? And how many lords, landed knights, household knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms are in Dorne in addition to those 30,000 men? Could the Vulture King's rabble not also join any regular army the Martells might field?

And how many men would be such assembled in such an army?

Semantics Lord Varys? Really? You said in 37 AC the population was at an unusually  low point. I therefore call it an anomaly. How is that not exactly what you said?

Anyway, Doran himself confirms that Dorne is currently the least populated kingdom. Note that he never directly disputes the 50k number. But he states that Dorne has fewer people than any other kingdom. And that Daeron overstated their numbers during his war, when writing his book.

So the question is, what number did Daeron claim them to have in his book? While it is never directly stated, logic suggests that the 50k estimate that everyone seems to casually throw around is sourced from Daeron’s book.

Hence, Dorne’s actual number is significantly lower than that. At the same time, unless their numbers today are drastically lower than in historical times, which you agree is unlikely, it is difficult to see how they can have less than 30k men.

So 30k seems the best estimate of their strength.

 

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Also, remember that Prince Oberyn wanted to raise Dorne for Viserys after word reached Sunspear of the slaughter of Elia and her children.  I'm sure there was plenty of power left in Dorne if it was needed.  If the Tyrells had not dipped their banners to Ned Stark I'm sure they could have continued the war in Viserys' name.

I agree with Lord Varys in that Doran wanted to temper Arianne's lust for war when giving her his population assessment.  He knows full well that a war for the Iron Throne would require Dornish forces to leave Dorne, where they fight best.  Against the Reach, Stormlands, Westerlands, Riverlands, and Crownlands, that is not a winnable battle on any day.

Least populous does not equate unable to raise 50k, especially when you train and fight your women as well.  30k troops without major support is 30k troops, and I'm sure they can raise more troops than the Iron Islands, who can raise at least 20k.  Additionally, Nymeria brought 10,000 ships to Dorne.  Lets say conservatively that there were 100 people per ship.  Thats 1m new inhabitants.  Even with the Dragon's Wroth, I cannot see Dorn'e population being depleted that significantly.  Dorne was spared from the Spring sickness that ravaged the Kingdoms if I recall correctly.  Even Jon Connington's plans revolve around Dorne, as he knows they are the only ally he has left with the power to defy the Iron Throne.

The Dornish have a pretty good economy all their own and never really needed to be a part of the Seven Kingdoms.  Yew for bows, exotic fruits and vegetables, spices, horses and wines all factor into a pretty vibrant Dornish economy.  Add that to the fact that Dorne has been stable and at peace, save for Robert's Rebellion and a few of the Blackfrye conflicts, and it would seem that the Dornish are in good shape numbers wise.  We have Doran's words to Arianne v. a lot of contradictory evidence.  I'm still willing to bet that Dorne can raise close to 50k rather than 30k given that GRRM has said that they are equal to the North and Vale.

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41 minutes ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Also, remember that Prince Oberyn wanted to raise Dorne for Viserys after word reached Sunspear of the slaughter of Elia and her children.  I'm sure there was plenty of power left in Dorne if it was needed.  If the Tyrells had not dipped their banners to Ned Stark I'm sure they could have continued the war in Viserys' name.

I agree with Lord Varys in that Doran wanted to temper Arianne's lust for war when giving her his population assessment.  He knows full well that a war for the Iron Throne would require Dornish forces to leave Dorne, where they fight best.  Against the Reach, Stormlands, Westerlands, Riverlands, and Crownlands, that is not a winnable battle on any day.

Least populous does not equate unable to raise 50k, especially when you train and fight your women as well.  30k troops without major support is 30k troops, and I'm sure they can raise more troops than the Iron Islands, who can raise at least 20k.  Additionally, Nymeria brought 10,000 ships to Dorne.  Lets say conservatively that there were 100 people per ship.  Thats 1m new inhabitants.  Even with the Dragon's Wroth, I cannot see Dorn'e population being depleted that significantly.  Dorne was spared from the Spring sickness that ravaged the Kingdoms if I recall correctly.  Even Jon Connington's plans revolve around Dorne, as he knows they are the only ally he has left with the power to defy the Iron Throne.

The Dornish have a pretty good economy all their own and never really needed to be a part of the Seven Kingdoms.  Yew for bows, exotic fruits and vegetables, spices, horses and wines all factor into a pretty vibrant Dornish economy.  Add that to the fact that Dorne has been stable and at peace, save for Robert's Rebellion and a few of the Blackfrye conflicts, and it would seem that the Dornish are in good shape numbers wise.  We have Doran's words to Arianne v. a lot of contradictory evidence.  I'm still willing to bet that Dorne can raise close to 50k rather than 30k given that GRRM has said that they are equal to the North and Vale.

It is pretty likely that the Seven Kingdoms Doran refers to does not include the Iron Isles. There is no squid on Joffrey’s Seven sided cup, remember.

Also, Doran never states Dorne’s actual strength. Only that Daeron inflated it in his book and that Dorne is the least populated of the Seven Kingdoms.

I find it problematic that people are so quick to discount the Prince of Dorne’s direct statement on this issue. I don’t think that is evidence based reasoning.

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6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It is pretty likely that the Seven Kingdoms Doran refers to does not include the Iron Isles. There is no squid on Joffrey’s Seven sided cup, remember.

why is that likely though? the Iron Islands, unlike Dorne, has always been part of the seven kingdoms. 

and the idea that Doran knows the population sizes of all the other kingdoms but they are clueless about his is a little suspect. 

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

I find it problematic that people are so quick to discount the Prince of Dorne’s direct statement on this issue. I don’t think that is evidence based reasoning.

well to be clear, I believe him, but the fact is his daughter and nieces were hell bent on starting a war they could not win, there is a very obvious reason why he would lie, after all he had been lying to her for some time about the whereabouts of her brother. He is more than capable of lying to his daughter if her knowing the truth can jeopardize his position. 

I still think he was being truthful but it is hardly problematic if others question it. 

 

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41 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

why is that likely though? the Iron Islands, unlike Dorne, has always been part of the seven kingdoms. 

and the idea that Doran knows the population sizes of all the other kingdoms but they are clueless about his is a little suspect. 

well to be clear, I believe him, but the fact is his daughter and nieces were hell bent on starting a war they could not win, there is a very obvious reason why he would lie, after all he had been lying to her for some time about the whereabouts of her brother. He is more than capable of lying to his daughter if her knowing the truth can jeopardize his position. 

I still think he was being truthful but it is hardly problematic if others question it. 

 

It is a theme which I feel people invest too much in, in general. The over reliance on interpreting factual information as coloured by POV.

POV is important, of course, but sometimes the author simply wishes to information dump certain facts, and it seems people are not able or willing to accept this, instead having an almost religious need to see more complicated POV induced undertones to every statement.

You will of course know that the devaluation of Jojen Reed’s assessment of the quality of the farmland in the Gift is another example where I feel this phenomenon is unreasonably exhibited by some theorists.

EDIT

Regarding the Seven Kingdoms, the traditional seven kingdoms of Aegon’s time included Dorne. The Iron Isles and Riverlands were combined back then, but after the Conquest the Riverlands became the successor kingdom to the Kingdom of Rivers and Isles, and the Iron Isles just seemed to be relegated to the periphery. Joffrey’s cup depicting the sigils of the Seven Kingdoms being a reference point to that. It has no Kraken on it. But it does have a Fish. And a Dornish sun, for that matter.

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

How do you know? Rhaegar had more men than Robert at the Trident, anyway. About 40,000 men. Who is to say that Rhaegar wanted to march with 60,000 or 80,000 men to the Trident?

Only one in ten were knights though. If he could have more men, he'd have them. At least he'd have more knights if there were any.

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5 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Least populous does not equate unable to raise 50k, especially when you train and fight your women as well.  30k troops without major support is 30k troops, and I'm sure they can raise more troops than the Iron Islands, who can raise at least 20k.  Additionally, Nymeria brought 10,000 ships to Dorne.  Lets say conservatively that there were 100 people per ship.  Thats 1m new inhabitants.  

Oh please, let's not be.

Rhoynish had 250000 soldiers. This number included most of Nymeria's Ny Sar men. Entire race of the Rhoynar went to war against  Valyrians. 100 men per ship on 10000 makes a MILLION people, just from the women and old and children of Ny Sar when almost entire male population of Rhoynish is 250000.

Nymeria took 10000 ships is a legend, worldbook says that number is inflated perhaps as high as tenfold. 100 ships lost in the first storm, 100 or more returned... in one place 40 ships were put to torch... she lost more on the way to Dorne and lost more people in the towns she established.

Nymeria filled women, children and old men into ANY watercraft from NY SAR ONLY. Any water craft includes even Rafts. Only one in ten ships were seaworthy we are told. She lost ships and people throughout her long journey and 8 of 10 who arrived were women, with a quarter of them being warriors.

So no. No 10000 ships, no average of 100 person per ship. Even most war galleys have only 100 oars and some small number of marines and these are warships. Skiffs and barges and rafts and so on would have nowhete near that number.

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28 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Only one in ten were knights though. If he could have more men, he'd have them. At least he'd have more knights if there were any.

But there were more knights to be had, though. And not from Dorne but from the loyalist Reach. Apparently they did not demand that Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne and the majority of their knights come and join them, no?

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Semantics Lord Varys? Really? You said in 37 AC the population was at an unusually  low point. I therefore call it an anomaly. How is that not exactly what you said?

Sorry, then I misunderstood you. I thought you meant it was an anomaly and we could/should therefore ignore it.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Anyway, Doran himself confirms that Dorne is currently the least populated kingdom. Note that he never directly disputes the 50k number. But he states that Dorne has fewer people than any other kingdom. And that Daeron overstated their numbers during his war, when writing his book.

So the question is, what number did Daeron claim them to have in his book? While it is never directly stated, logic suggests that the 50k estimate that everyone seems to casually throw around is sourced from Daeron’s book.

The issue with that is that Doran actually compares apples with oranges there. Daeron I invaded Dorne, conquered it, and then used an occupying force to keep the Dornish in line. Daeron and his forces essentially had to deal with all Dornishmen and -women, not just those men (and women) the Prince of Dorne can assemble in one or multiple armies to fight in a pitched battle.

We do know that the Young Dragon attacked Dorne on multiple fronts, by land and sea, and had his navy controlling the Greenblood which successfully prevented the Dornish lords from uniting their forces and attacking the Targaryens with their full strength. Daeron's people would have faced multiple smaller armies rather than one large one but what unmade his conquest wasn't pitched battles or large armies but the common Dornish in pretty much every castle and village.

Daeron I would have written his book before his defeat and death, though, so he may have made mistakes adding the numbers up or he may have misjudged the military potential of all Dorne combined. We don't know. And neither does Doran, actually, because we have no reason to believe the man has firsthand information of the strength of Dorne during the days of Daeron's war.

6 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

I agree with Lord Varys in that Doran wanted to temper Arianne's lust for war when giving her his population assessment.  He knows full well that a war for the Iron Throne would require Dornish forces to leave Dorne, where they fight best.  Against the Reach, Stormlands, Westerlands, Riverlands, and Crownlands, that is not a winnable battle on any day.

Yeah, that's the main issue there. Regardless how strong or weak Dorne actually is, they kicked the ass of the dragons at least two times. They could secede pretty easily, but Doran Martell actually wants Dorne to have power, he doesn't want them to put their heads in the sand and play the secession game.

In relation to population size that may not matter all that much anyway, if one considers that the Dornish have very distinctly marked population centers. The deep Sands are pretty much empty, and most Dornishmen live along the Greenblood, in the north-eastern regions along the milder coast, in the Sunspear region, and up in the mountain valleys.

Especially the Dornishmen in the mountains seem to be able to marshal armies very quickly, but the same might be true for those along the Greenblood and on the coasts.

The 30,000 men of the Vulture King certainly means that Dorne has the capability to marshal such an army (at a point where they would have been pretty weak) without their economy and castle life, etc. collapsing.

And the reason why those 30,000 men are pretty important is that they are dismissed as rabble. But considering that they must have been a considerable part of the rank and file of any Dornish army (and not an additional potential of 30,000 men that wouldn't be part of a 'normal host' raised by the lords) we have to ask ourselves how large the amount of such 'rabble' is in the average Westerosi host raised by the lords?

That is the really important question, the question that pretty much invalidates this speculation about army sizes when done with the purpose to assess the potential strength of a future army raised in this or that region. After all, it will then be clear that the important question is how many professional warriors are part of each such army, and how capable they are to resist or defeat an army having more heavy horse or archers at their disposal.

How much rabble was there in Robb's army? Or the Lannister hosts? Stafford's army was dominated by rabble, presumably, but how much of that is there in the hosts where there are also knights and lords and men-at-arms?

I mean, I've long said that George introduced those dragonbone bows of the Dothraki for a reason. If you have the deadliest bows in the world and your cavalry can use them (and other bows) while riding, then it doesn't necessarily matter how many men you have. You might be able to crush an army outnumbering you ten to one (not that a Dothraki host coming to Westeros might be outnumbered in that degree - we are just talking potential here).

We also get Black Balaq and his archers using goldenheart bows for a reason. If used correctly they could cripple and/or destroy all the heavy horse the Tyrells are going to throw against Aegon's forces. Especially in combination with an elephant attack.

In that sense this obsession with numbers in relation to future plot points is silly.

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On 7/13/2018 at 5:20 AM, Corvo the Crow said:

Oh please, let's not be.

Rhoynish had 250000 soldiers. This number included most of Nymeria's Ny Sar men. Entire race of the Rhoynar went to war against  Valyrians. 100 men per ship on 10000 makes a MILLION people, just from the women and old and children of Ny Sar when almost entire male population of Rhoynish is 250000.

Nymeria took 10000 ships is a legend, worldbook says that number is inflated perhaps as high as tenfold. 100 ships lost in the first storm, 100 or more returned... in one place 40 ships were put to torch... she lost more on the way to Dorne and lost more people in the towns she established.

Nymeria filled women, children and old men into ANY watercraft from NY SAR ONLY. Any water craft includes even Rafts. Only one in ten ships were seaworthy we are told. She lost ships and people throughout her long journey and 8 of 10 who arrived were women, with a quarter of them being warriors.

So no. No 10000 ships, no average of 100 person per ship. Even most war galleys have only 100 oars and some small number of marines and these are warships. Skiffs and barges and rafts and so on would have nowhete near that number.

Some good points and straight from the world book mostly.  The fleet did not arrive in Dorne complete, but we don't know how incomplete.  Yes, ships were lost but that is not to say that 7k-8k arrived off the coast of Sunspear.  Additionally, the remaining 3/4 of the women who were not warriors had been hardened  during their travels and travails, meaning that were more than capable if the need arose.  Add this to the fact that thousands of the boys who set sail had grown to manhood by this time and had taken up the spear, and you have very formidable force.  The Martells, who were petty lords at the time, increased their host 10x over by joining with Nymeria.

Also, when Mors wed Nymeria, hundreds of knights, squires, and lords bannermen took Rhoynish women as wives and paramours.  This had to be quite a population boom from all of the intermingling.  So, even without the entire 10,000 ships my argument holds.  I firmly believe that Dorne has the capability to raise anywhere from 45k to 50k troops.  The old numbers on the North and Vale from previous GRRM numbers had them at I think 45k, which sounds about right.  The North was capable of far more if Robb had the time to muster his vast, spread out domain properly.  We learn from Nestor Royce that the six lord declarants (Royce, Waynwood, Redford, Hunter, Belmore, and Templeton) could raise 20k alone.  Throw in the other 20+ houses and yeah, they could likely reach 45k to 50k as well.  This would put GRRM's remarks that the North, Vale and Dorne are all roughly equal in strength in good context.   

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35 minutes ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

This had to be quite a population boom from all of the intermingling.  So, even without the entire 10,000 ships my argument holds

Yes it was a population boom... BUT, again there wasn't 10000 ships with 100 per people to begin with, rememner that world book says it's vastly inflated, perhaps as much as tenfold. So it could very well be the ships that arrived numbered in the hundreds. Also the real population boom would come within the next generation as there are so many women, but it won't last. If Greenblood could have supported a population of that size then it would have reached it already.

Martells are, as you said, were Petty kings. As a base line, even some of the most powerful "high" lords barely have two thousand, give or take a few hundred. Yronwoods at the time owned a third of Dorne iirc, and the very best parts of it. Daynes were also very powerful, within the context of Dorne that is. There were others as well, though not so powerful at the time. It's reasonable to believe Martells didn't even have 2000. So say, to push it some, 500 ships with 100 people each, would make 10000 female warriors if one of every two "men" were fit to fight every time, it's another 5000. 15000 fighters for Martell out of thin air or rather fresh from the sea. If mors had 1500 men, he had increased his numbers by tenfold, without pushing for a population boom of millions that could never be.

Side note, men of "fighting age" (15-50) would roughly be a quarter of the entire population so Rhoynar themselves had little over a million people as a race. Million people spread out of several cities of which only one had some inhabitants that sailed out.

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6 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

The Martells, who were petty lords at the time, increased their host 10x over by joining with Nymeria.

They were not petty lords. They weren't petty kings, but they were lords of considerable power in their corner of Dorne. 

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We learn from Nestor Royce that the six lord declarants (Royce, Waynwood, Redford, Hunter, Belmore, and Templeton) could raise 20k alone.  Throw in the other 20+ houses and yeah, they could likely reach 45k to 50k as well.  This would put GRRM's remarks that the North, Vale and Dorne are all roughly equal in strength in good context.   

One should keep in mind in the Vale situation that the Arryns are effectively non-existent at this point, and young Lord Robert is in the hands of a Lord Protector with neither military prowess nor a strong power base of his own. But the Lords Declarant are led by the Lord of Runestone, the most powerful lord in the Vale after the Arryns themselves. While not all Lords of the Vale joined his cause, many freeriders, hedge knights, sworn swords, and younger sons of houses not joining him (and some of their vassals, too, perhaps) would have joined them. Lord Corbray stood with Littlefinger but his younger brother (supposedly) joined the Lords Declarant.

We cannot say with certainty that the men assembled beneath the Giant's Lance were only the men sworn to the Lords Declarant. Men technically serving other lords may have decided to stand with Bronze Yohn.

When there is effectively no central power - or effectively an uprising against the central power (which is the case there) - then things don't go as smoothly in such a setting as they do when a strong and beloved leader declares a just war on some enemy and calls on all his bannermen and subjects to follow him in this.

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4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They were not petty lords. They weren't petty kings, but they were lords of considerable power in their corner of Dorne. 

One should keep in mind in the Vale situation that the Arryns are effectively non-existent at this point, and young Lord Robert is in the hands of a Lord Protector with neither military prowess nor a strong power base of his own. But the Lords Declarant are led by the Lord of Runestone, the most powerful lord in the Vale after the Arryns themselves. While not all Lords of the Vale joined his cause, many freeriders, hedge knights, sworn swords, and younger sons of houses not joining him (and some of their vassals, too, perhaps) would have joined them. Lord Corbray stood with Littlefinger but his younger brother (supposedly) joined the Lords Declarant.

We cannot say with certainty that the men assembled beneath the Giant's Lance were only the men sworn to the Lords Declarant. Men technically serving other lords may have decided to stand with Bronze Yohn.

When there is effectively no central power - or effectively an uprising against the central power (which is the case there) - then things don't go as smoothly in such a setting as they do when a strong and beloved leader declares a just war on some enemy and calls on all his bannermen and subjects to follow him in this.

It could be as you say, but Nestor specifically mentions the strength fo the Lord Declarants themselves and not any others.  I totally agree that the Royce's of Runestone are unequivocally the second strongest house in the Vale and in all likelihood has the most troops to muster.  But by Nestor's word, and he seems like a pretty smart guy, those six lords alone can muster 20k.

 

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10 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Yes it was a population boom... BUT, again there wasn't 10000 ships with 100 per people to begin with, rememner that world book says it's vastly inflated, perhaps as much as tenfold. So it could very well be the ships that arrived numbered in the hundreds. Also the real population boom would come within the next generation as there are so many women, but it won't last. If Greenblood could have supported a population of that size then it would have reached it already.

Martells are, as you said, were Petty kings. As a base line, even some of the most powerful "high" lords barely have two thousand, give or take a few hundred. Yronwoods at the time owned a third of Dorne iirc, and the very best parts of it. Daynes were also very powerful, within the context of Dorne that is. There were others as well, though not so powerful at the time. It's reasonable to believe Martells didn't even have 2000. So say, to push it some, 500 ships with 100 people each, would make 10000 female warriors if one of every two "men" were fit to fight every time, it's another 5000. 15000 fighters for Martell out of thin air or rather fresh from the sea. If mors had 1500 men, he had increased his numbers by tenfold, without pushing for a population boom of millions that could never be.

Side note, men of "fighting age" (15-50) would roughly be a quarter of the entire population so Rhoynar themselves had little over a million people as a race. Million people spread out of several cities of which only one had some inhabitants that sailed out.

Still re-reading the world book for the exact language, but the book itself is guessing as well and not definitive.  I will put a strong Dornish economy, a population boom ignited by the intermingling of the local population with a strong martial force, and years of relative peace as strong evidence of a stable and viable population.  

 

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4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They were not petty lords. They weren't petty kings, but they were lords of considerable power in their corner of Dorne. 

One should keep in mind in the Vale situation that the Arryns are effectively non-existent at this point, and young Lord Robert is in the hands of a Lord Protector with neither military prowess nor a strong power base of his own. But the Lords Declarant are led by the Lord of Runestone, the most powerful lord in the Vale after the Arryns themselves. While not all Lords of the Vale joined his cause, many freeriders, hedge knights, sworn swords, and younger sons of houses not joining him (and some of their vassals, too, perhaps) would have joined them. Lord Corbray stood with Littlefinger but his younger brother (supposedly) joined the Lords Declarant.

We cannot say with certainty that the men assembled beneath the Giant's Lance were only the men sworn to the Lords Declarant. Men technically serving other lords may have decided to stand with Bronze Yohn.

When there is effectively no central power - or effectively an uprising against the central power (which is the case there) - then things don't go as smoothly in such a setting as they do when a strong and beloved leader declares a just war on some enemy and calls on all his bannermen and subjects to follow him in this.

You cannot on the one hand argue for Dorne possibly having 50k men, and on the other hand argue down the strength of the Vale. Because Doran confirms to us that Dorne has less people than the Vale.

So you should rather argue that the 20k is indeed the strength of the 6 Lords Declarant. It supports your Dornish position better than arguing the opposite.

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10 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

It could be as you say, but Nestor specifically mentions the strength fo the Lord Declarants themselves and not any others.  I totally agree that the Royce's of Runestone are unequivocally the second strongest house in the Vale and in all likelihood has the most troops to muster.  But by Nestor's word, and he seems like a pretty smart guy, those six lords alone can muster 20k.

Doesn't Nestor mention the numbers for the host the Lords Declarant have already assembled, rather than adding up the numbers of the men the individual lords of that alliance could supposedly muster individually?

My point here is that the size of a host under this situation does not necessarily equal the combined legal strength of the lords leading it.

It might also be that not all vassals and retainers of the Lords Declarant joined their army. If we ignore their pretenses, they do march against their liege lord, Robert Arryn, and it would not be surprising if this or that lord, landed knight, etc. of the Vale preferred to stayed out of such an enterprise while others not sworn to them (but resenting Littlefinger's rise to power) joined them even if their liege lords did not.

10 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Still re-reading the world book for the exact language, but the book itself is guessing as well and not definitive.  I will put a strong Dornish economy, a population boom ignited by the intermingling of the local population with a strong martial force, and years of relative peace as strong evidence of a stable and viable population.  

Dorne really got a great push by the arrival of the Rhoynar, especially where technology and magic were concerned, and the population also increased, but Dorne could still have the lowest population of all the Seven Kingdoms and still be able to field more warriors than others if they can spare more men than others - after all, life in the desert is different from life in a different environment.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You cannot on the one hand argue for Dorne possibly having 50k men, and on the other hand argue down the strength of the Vale. Because Doran confirms to us that Dorne has less people than the Vale.

Sure I can. Because those are different situations. I explained why I think that an army of a coalition of lords banding together against the Lord Protector of the Vale and his stepson, the Lord Arryn of the Vale, is different from the beloved ruler of a country marshaling his entire strength to fight against a outside enemy.

Whether Doran is correct on his assessment of population of Dorne in comparison to the population of the other Seven Kingdoms is not clear. I mean, sure, he may have a pretty good picture of his own kingdom as well as the Stormlands and the Reach, perhaps, but we don't know whether he was ever in the North or the Vale or the Riverlands, or the West, nor that he has actual good data on the population of those regions.

And again - the entire point of Doran's argument there is to dissuade his daughter and her friends for the idea that Dorne can stand against all or most of the other kingdoms in a struggle for the Iron Throne (the point of the Myrcella coronation thing). Arianne and other Dornishmen fool themselves into believing that the fact that they never truly yielded to the Targaryens and always threw them out in the end that they could also pull off something bigger.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So you should rather argue that the 20k is indeed the strength of the 6 Lords Declarant. It supports your Dornish position better than arguing the opposite.

These two things are not connected.

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3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

They most certainly are, for anyone who is not disputing the direct statement of the Prince of Dorne on Dorne's comparative population to the rest of Westeros.

This is a medieval setting. The King of England in the 12th century may have had a good grasp of the population of his kingdom in comparison to Wales and Scotland, and perhaps Ireland. But I daresay they wouldn't have a good grasp on the population of Spain, say, or the Holy Roman Empire (and the various states therein).

I mean, sure, Doran should know stuff, but we have no reason to believe the Crown or the Prince of Dorne or the various lords actually do count their smallfolk. They may count farms and mills and the working citizenry of their towns and cities, but they would not count useless mouths. And usually useless mouths make up a decent chunk of the population of any country, be it a medieval setting or elsewhere.

But the point is, what Doran says has no bearing whatsoever on the size of the army of the Lords Declarant, nor on the men making it up.

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On 7/14/2018 at 6:28 AM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Still re-reading the world book for the exact language, but the book itself is guessing as well and not definitive.  I will put a strong Dornish economy, a population boom ignited by the intermingling of the local population with a strong martial force, and years of relative peace as strong evidence of a stable and viable population.  

 

Yes book language isn't exact so here's a tidbit of information to get a better understanding of the exaggeration in numbers; In Iron Islands every captain is a king on his ship and so they are called the land of 10000 kings when in reality they have barely over 400. We see this when Theon tells us near 400 captains, all in the islands, came with the exception of two lords who are on their way. So their number is 20-25 fold exaggarated.

 

In Nymeria's case we are told it may be as high as tenfold. We are also told of two score ships put to the torch in zamettar or wherever.  40 is a rather unimportant number to mention next to 10000 it wouldn't even be mentioned the way the series handles the numbers. It becomes much more important though when you have say 2000-3000 ships of which only 200-300 are seaworthy.

And as said above, Martells controlled a rather powerless chunk of Dorne compared to Daynes or Fowlers or Yronwoods who at times controlled a third.

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