Most Powerful Houses- what evidence?

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Yes book language isn't exact so here's a tidbit of information to get a better understanding of the exaggeration in numbers; In Iron Islands every captain is a king on his ship and so they are called the land of 10000 kings when in reality they have barely over 400. We see this when Theon tells us near 400 captains, all in the islands, came with the exception of two lords who are on their way. So their number is 20-25 fold exaggarated.

We know the numbers are exaggerated, but there is no consensus how much they were exaggerated, nor is there any point to speculate about this. Nymeria's journey was a long time ago, and we won't get any good numbers on her ships or the people on those ships.

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

And as said above, Martells controlled a rather powerless chunk of Dorne compared to Daynes or Fowlers or Yronwoods who at times controlled a third.

The Martells had very humble beginnings but they did control a sizable chunk of Dorne when Nymeria landed. They were never kings, and those Dornishmen who called themselves kings were all stronger but they were able to forge an alliance with the help of the Rhoynar that gave them the strength to defeat them all. 

You can read all that in the pre-Rhoynar history of House Martell.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

The Hightowers are definitely the single most powerful non-ruling house in all of Westeros.  As wealthy as the Lannisters and capable of fielding a huge army on their own, they chose to bend to knee to the Gardeners and then the Tyrells so that they can focus on trade and infrastructure.  The only time that they really troubled themselves with the wars of the realm was during the Dance of the Dragons, as Queen Alicent was indeed a Hightower.  They are actually pretty autonomous, having ruled their sizable portion of the Reach for thousands of years.

To me, the Lannisters are likely the strongest single house in the Kingdoms.  In addition to their limitless wealth, the seem to have the strongest castles and keeps and are naturally defended by a mountainous region.  

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

On 7/14/2018 at 9:24 AM, Lord Varys said:

Doesn't Nestor mention the numbers for the host the Lords Declarant have already assembled, rather than adding up the numbers of the men the individual lords of that alliance could supposedly muster individually?

 

The conversation was between Nestor and Little Finger.  Each lord declarant brought 1k men to the foot of the Eyrie and laid siege.  It was LF who raised the overall capabilities fo the Lords Declarant, mentioning that he was powerless to stop them from removing him as Lord Protector, as he only has 20 guardsmen compared to the 20k that they could muster.  There are few with more knowledge in the realm than LF and he was speaking specifically of these six, as the rest of the Vale was not so hostile to his intentions.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

The conversation was between Nestor and Little Finger.  Each lord declarant brought 1k men to the foot of the Eyrie and laid siege.  It was LF who raised the overall capabilities fo the Lords Declarant, mentioning that he was powerless to stop them from removing him as Lord Protector, as he only has 20 guardsmen compared to the 20k that they could muster.  There are few with more knowledge in the realm than LF and he was speaking specifically of these six, as the rest of the Vale was not so hostile to his intentions.

Yeah. To me it is a rather simple issue, being unnecessarily complicated by some.

The Lords Declarant can raise about 20k men. So what percentage of the Vale’s total strength do they represent? That is the pertinent question.

[Corvo the Crow]

6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yeah. To me it is a rather simple issue, being unnecessarily complicated by some.

The Lords Declarant can raise about 20k men. So what percentage of the Vale’s total strength do they represent? That is the pertinent question.

We know where these lords lands are located(though not their extent). That would give us some idea and we also have some  idea on the lands of at least one other important house. Corbrays are lords of the Fingers. Little finger is the lord of the smallest one with only a small village and endless leagues of moores and barren rock.

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

We know where these lords lands are located(though not their extent). That would give us some idea and we also have some  idea on the lands of at least one other important house. Corbrays are lords of the Fingers. Little finger is the lord of the smallest one with only a small village and endless leagues of moores and barren rock.

One of the six is House Templeton, which is only stated to have a strength in excess of a thousand men (which is still extremely powerful for a Landed Knight). So if they indeed only have somewhere between 1000 and 2000 men they might not even be one of the six most powerful Houses in the Vale. 

So there might well be Houses outside the six who are more powerful than some of the six. We also know that the North has in excess of 15 Principal Vassal Houses, so if the Vale is of a similar stature, well, the 20k is likely at most half the strength of the Vale, if that.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

23 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

One of the six is House Templeton, which is only stated to have a strength in excess of a thousand men (which is still extremely powerful for a Landed Knight). So if they indeed only have somewhere between 1000 and 2000 men they might not even be one of the six most powerful Houses in the Vale. 

So there might well be Houses outside the six who are more powerful than some of the six. We also know that the North has in excess of 15 Principal Vassal Houses, so if the Vale is of a similar stature, well, the 20k is likely at most half the strength of the Vale, if that.

The Templeton's are indeed very powerful for landed knights.  The ability to raise 2k+ men is more than most lordly houses.  I would like to know more of their back story.

Yea, the Corbrays and Graftons are not signatories and assume they both have major levies.  Including these two, I count 23 other Vassal Houses sword directly and indirectly to House Arryn.  Throwing out House Baelish, and keeping in line with GRRM, it is more than likely these other 22 houses can raise another 20-25k.

[cpg2016]

On 7/12/2018 at 7:17 AM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Post-Dragon's Wroth and post-peace treaty with the Targaryans, Dorne experienced relative peace, not becoming part of the realm until Daeron the Good's reign.  They stayed out of the Dance of the Dragons and likely other conflicts that devastated the realm.  Thats plenty of time to recover population.  Remember also that Quentyn relays the 50k spears to Dany.  Plenty of reasons not to lie to her and risk her wroth. 

Wait, what?  Quentyn has EVERY reason to lie to Dany.  He needs her.  Once she gets to Westeros and finds its 35,000 men and not 50,000, what is she going to do?  She still needs their political support, still needs those men.

Moreover, you and most of the commentators further down fundamentally misunderstand how population growth works in pre-Agricultural Revolution societies.  There is not a ton of surplus food to go around.  People die.  Sickness ravages populations.  Look at world population growth; it is tiny prior to ~1850 and the beginnings of modern medicine and sanitation.  Like, under 0.5% per year.  If Dorne loses huge numbers of people in both the Dragon's Wroth and the invasions of Daeron I, plus minor engagements at other times, it's actually more than possible that they enter a downward population spiral, rather than the reverse.  Especially in Dorne, where presumably huge amounts of manpower are needed to maintain vital irrigation systems.

[Ran]

1 hour ago, Daniel Newhouse said:

Who has the biggest castle?  And who has the castle in the background of this bulletin board?  I've tried the westeros wiki and I cannot peg it.

You can actually change the background. On the top navigation bar where you see your name, + Create, etc., there's an icon that represents a picture (featuring a stylized mountain and sun). Click that and you'll see the options. From left to right they are Casterly Rock (I expect this is the one you have, as it acts as the default), the Eyrie, Harrenhal, Storm's End, Pyke, and Winterfell.

As far as biggest castle, there's a couple of ways to look at it. In terms of largest constructed buildings above ground, Harrenhal is by far the largest in Westeros. But Casterly Rock encompasses kilometers of halls and chambers, dug into the stone, with fortifications and gates and so on added in certain places. Casterly Rock is a fantasy Gibraltar.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Ran said:

As far as biggest castle, there's a couple of ways to look at it. In terms of largest constructed buildings above ground, Harrenhal is by far the largest in Westeros. But Casterly Rock encompasses kilometers of halls and chambers, dug into the stone, with fortifications and gates and so on added in certain places. Casterly Rock is a fantasy Gibraltar.

Winterfell also covers a lot of ground between its walls (although a large chunks seems to be the godswood). And the Red Keep - while being smaller than Harrenhal and Casterly Rock and covering less ground than Winterfell - must have one of the largest halls in Westeros considering the size of the Iron Throne and the fact that the skulls of Balerion, Meraxes, and Vhagar were actually displayed there without, apparently, completely dominating the room.

That implies that the throne room of the Red Keep must be very large indeed.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Wait, what?  Quentyn has EVERY reason to lie to Dany.  He needs her.  Once she gets to Westeros and finds its 35,000 men and not 50,000, what is she going to do?  She still needs their political support, still needs those men.

Moreover, you and most of the commentators further down fundamentally misunderstand how population growth works in pre-Agricultural Revolution societies.  There is not a ton of surplus food to go around.  People die.  Sickness ravages populations.  Look at world population growth; it is tiny prior to ~1850 and the beginnings of modern medicine and sanitation.  Like, under 0.5% per year.  If Dorne loses huge numbers of people in both the Dragon's Wroth and the invasions of Daeron I, plus minor engagements at other times, it's actually more than possible that they enter a downward population spiral, rather than the reverse.  Especially in Dorne, where presumably huge amounts of manpower are needed to maintain vital irrigation systems.

An alliance based upon deceit and dishonesty will not hold.  Doran knows this, and likely would not send his sound dangling tainted goods.  But, I also admit that he could be telling a bit of a lie (or does not know the true number himself) and hoping she finds a bit less to be sufficient.  However, I think Quentyn is pretty learned, as he is said to look and think like Doran, and knows Dorne's capabilities.

Being that this is a fantasy realm, I had not thought to study the issue of population growth in pre-Agricultural Revolution societies.  I'm just taking the information provided by the text and making logical inferences.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

8 hours ago, Ran said:

As far as biggest castle, there's a couple of ways to look at it. In terms of largest constructed buildings above ground, Harrenhal is by far the largest in Westeros. But Casterly Rock encompasses kilometers of halls and chambers, dug into the stone, with fortifications and gates and so on added in certain places. Casterly Rock is a fantasy Gibraltar.

Is Harrenhal bigger than the Rock above ground?  The rock is carved directly out of a great stone hill, with fortifications and other structures all over it above ground.  It even has a very large harbor all its own near the sea.  It just seems to clear that the Rock is the winner.

[Rufus Snow]

On 7/16/2018 at 8:59 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Lords Declarant can raise about 20k men. So what percentage of the Vale’s total strength do they represent? That is the pertinent question.

It has to be a goodly chunk, or else they're stepping into a world of pain. They must reckon to control around half of the Vale's power - what they are attempting would be very foolish if they thought LF had any chance of raising >50% of the Vale against them. They may allow a little leeway, as there will always be some who won't declare if it comes to blows, but I really don't think they'd go ahead if they didn't feel secure in their military superiority.

My guess is that their 20k represents no less than 40%, maybe as much as 60% of what the Vale can raise.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

59 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

It has to be a goodly chunk, or else they're stepping into a world of pain. They must reckon to control around half of the Vale's power - what they are attempting would be very foolish if they thought LF had any chance of raising >50% of the Vale against them. They may allow a little leeway, as there will always be some who won't declare if it comes to blows, but I really don't think they'd go ahead if they didn't feel secure in their military superiority.

My guess is that their 20k represents no less than 40%, maybe as much as 60% of what the Vale can raise.

Being amenable to LF's rule does not necessarily mean taking up arms against Bronze Yohn and the other Lord Declarants.  LF knew his only hope of remaining in power was to pull that little ruse that involved Lyn Corbray.

I do agree that their forces likely make up around 40-45% of the Vale's total strength.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

It has to be a goodly chunk, or else they're stepping into a world of pain. They must reckon to control around half of the Vale's power - what they are attempting would be very foolish if they thought LF had any chance of raising >50% of the Vale against them. They may allow a little leeway, as there will always be some who won't declare if it comes to blows, but I really don't think they'd go ahead if they didn't feel secure in their military superiority.

My guess is that their 20k represents no less than 40%, maybe as much as 60% of what the Vale can raise.

I reckon that as in the North most lords will just hunker down and see how things go. We didnt see mass mobilization for or against Stannis or for or against the Boltons until lords were kind of forced or coerced into action.

If you have the unified lords Declarant with 20k men, you might have a few dozen other lords sitting tight, neutral or just ignoring matters. Getting a unified 20k to oppose them is unlikely. That said, I already know the strength of the Vale. Until proven orherwise I go with the roughly 45k Martin endorsed in 2005. Indeed putting the Lords Declarant at just under 50% of that number.

[Corvo the Crow]

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

reckon that as in the North most lords will just hunker down and see how things go. We didnt see mass mobilization for or against Stannis or for or against the Boltons until lords were kind of forced or coerced into action.

Their case is different though, what was ir that mance said? Or was it tormund? Some people are shadowcats, some are sheep, some are stones that need to be kicked.

Most northern lords are sheep with Roose a shadowcat and Manderly to a degree also one.

We see with Stannis how quick they are to respond when there's a shepherd dog, or rather Mastiff in his case. Mountain clans who sat idly by quickly gather to his banner, Wood clansmen and Rodrik's remnant forces also. 

 

Valemen currently have their leader in Yohn Royce and his declarant buddies and LF for the other camp so unless they are stones, they'll follow one or the other.

[Free Northman Reborn]

15 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Their case is different though, what was ir that mance said? Or was it tormund? Some people are shadowcats, some are sheep, some are stones that need to be kicked.

Most northern lords are sheep with Roose a shadowcat and Manderly to a degree also one.

We see with Stannis how quick they are to respond when there's a shepherd dog, or rather Mastiff in his case. Mountain clans who sat idly by quickly gather to his banner, Wood clansmen and Rodrik's remnant forces also. 

 

Valemen currently have their leader in Yohn Royce and his declarant buddies and LF for the other camp so unless they are stones, they'll follow one or the other.

Wait. What?

Thats a rather sweeping statement to make, ignoring a whole bunch of variables in the process.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Wait. What?

Thats a rather sweeping statement to make, ignoring a whole bunch of variables in the process.

Agreed, it was the clans follow Stannis for the love they bore Ned and the thought of saving Ned's girl (presumed to be Arya).  Manderly is amassing forces on his own, but only agrees to support Stannis if he can bring home his liege lord (Rickon).  The Northern lords are thinking and independent.

[cpg2016]

On 7/18/2018 at 1:15 PM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

An alliance based upon deceit and dishonesty will not hold.  Doran knows this, and likely would not send his sound dangling tainted goods.  But, I also admit that he could be telling a bit of a lie (or does not know the true number himself) and hoping she finds a bit less to be sufficient.  However, I think Quentyn is pretty learned, as he is said to look and think like Doran, and knows Dorne's capabilities.

Being that this is a fantasy realm, I had not thought to study the issue of population growth in pre-Agricultural Revolution societies.  I'm just taking the information provided by the text and making logical inferences.

I mean, there is deceit and dishonesty, and then exaggeration.  There is a difference of degree.  What Roose Bolton and Walder Frey do to Robb is much closer to the former; exaggerating your strength isn't quite the same.  Dorne's support will be invaluable for Dany regardless of their true strength; getting her to Westeros is what is important for Doran, and once she's there, she'll need him.  If he's got half as many men as he claims, it won't matter - she's there and she'll need all the help she can get, and that Doran was the first guy on the bandwagon and gives her a strong base of support will be far more important than the exact numerical strength of that support.  Dorne is a home base, a source of legitimacy, and those are more important factors than whether an extra 10,000 spears will carry the day.

Also, Quentyn may not know.  Doran makes it clear that the true strength of Dorne is kept secret to keep opportunists from taking advantage, or at least to make them seem more powerful and influential within the Seven Kingdoms.  Letting that secret out to anyone risks it becoming more widely known; the whole thing about the more people knowing a secret and all that.  Quentyn is clearly very underprepared for his mission in almost every way conceivable anyway, which is because Doran is afraid of showing his hand too early.  It's no stretch at all to imagine that Quentyn's knowledge of Dorne's true strength reflects that of the public at large; that they can raise 50,000 men, and not the far fewer number that is the truth.  The fact that Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms makes it quite logical that they can raise the fewest soldiers, and since we see little evidence that the North or the Stormlands or the Vale can raise 50+ thousand men, it makes sense that Dorne cannot, either.

As for Quentyn being learned...  I tend to doubt it.  He wants to stay at Yronwood and marry Lord Yronwood's daughter (forget her name).  This is part and parcel of his story - he's an unwilling hero, a prince in disguise who doesn't want to star in his own story, he just wants to marry a pretty girl and have a quiet life.  That is all undermined if he's got all the info, if he knows what Doran's plans are, what Dorne's strength is, if he's a willing conspirator here, luring Dany to Westeros.  It makes far more sense that he's just like Arianne; he's been given extremely limited information to keep the circle tight, that his expedition to Essos is, for him, coming out of the blue.  He's an extremely important person in Westeros, relatively speaking - the fact that he undertakes what is known to be an extremely dangerous journey with like, half a dozen comrades, makes it clear that even if he knows what is ahead, he isn't being allowed to plan for it.  He's shocked, again and again, at what life is like outside the friendly confines of Dorne.  That doesn't speak to someone who knows what he's doing, or someone who has been allowed to plan.  He's a pawn.  And pawns don't get told the master plan.  Even Arianne is only told after she nearly upsets the apple cart.

And as far as population growth goes, I think we can stick with real world assumptions.  GRRM knows his history, and while we can take a certain latitude in calculation manpower, etc, we also have the history of Westeros to guide us.  There isn't any appreciable population growth; 300 years since the Conquest, the lords of Westeros seem to be raising approximately the same number of troops.  If population growth was anything more than nominal, Westeros would have become overpopulated centuries if not millenia ago.

[Corvo the Crow]

10 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And as far as population growth goes, I think we can stick with real world assumptions.  GRRM knows his history, and while we can take a certain latitude in calculation manpower, etc, we also have the history of Westeros to guide us.  There isn't any appreciable population growth; 300 years since the Conquest, the lords of Westeros seem to be raising approximately the same number of troops.  If population growth was anything more than nominal, Westeros would have become overpopulated centuries if not millenia ago.

Agreed. Riverlands, perhaps the most fertile region, has many uninhabited places. Someone would have claimed Oldstones long ago if population growtg was so high or Lord Goodbrook's village Hoster burnt wouldn't have stayed uninhabited.

The fact that there are wide open ranges of  uninhabited land in even RL and Reach, the most fertile regions, shows that  Westeros as a whole doesn't have a considerable increase in population.