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Most Powerful Houses- what evidence?


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11 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I mean, there is deceit and dishonesty, and then exaggeration.  There is a difference of degree.  What Roose Bolton and Walder Frey do to Robb is much closer to the former; exaggerating your strength isn't quite the same.  Dorne's support will be invaluable for Dany regardless of their true strength; getting her to Westeros is what is important for Doran, and once she's there, she'll need him.  If he's got half as many men as he claims, it won't matter - she's there and she'll need all the help she can get, and that Doran was the first guy on the bandwagon and gives her a strong base of support will be far more important than the exact numerical strength of that support.  Dorne is a home base, a source of legitimacy, and those are more important factors than whether an extra 10,000 spears will carry the day.

Also, Quentyn may not know.  Doran makes it clear that the true strength of Dorne is kept secret to keep opportunists from taking advantage, or at least to make them seem more powerful and influential within the Seven Kingdoms.  Letting that secret out to anyone risks it becoming more widely known; the whole thing about the more people knowing a secret and all that.  Quentyn is clearly very underprepared for his mission in almost every way conceivable anyway, which is because Doran is afraid of showing his hand too early.  It's no stretch at all to imagine that Quentyn's knowledge of Dorne's true strength reflects that of the public at large; that they can raise 50,000 men, and not the far fewer number that is the truth.  The fact that Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms makes it quite logical that they can raise the fewest soldiers, and since we see little evidence that the North or the Stormlands or the Vale can raise 50+ thousand men, it makes sense that Dorne cannot, either.

As for Quentyn being learned...  I tend to doubt it.  He wants to stay at Yronwood and marry Lord Yronwood's daughter (forget her name).  This is part and parcel of his story - he's an unwilling hero, a prince in disguise who doesn't want to star in his own story, he just wants to marry a pretty girl and have a quiet life.  That is all undermined if he's got all the info, if he knows what Doran's plans are, what Dorne's strength is, if he's a willing conspirator here, luring Dany to Westeros.  It makes far more sense that he's just like Arianne; he's been given extremely limited information to keep the circle tight, that his expedition to Essos is, for him, coming out of the blue.  He's an extremely important person in Westeros, relatively speaking - the fact that he undertakes what is known to be an extremely dangerous journey with like, half a dozen comrades, makes it clear that even if he knows what is ahead, he isn't being allowed to plan for it.  He's shocked, again and again, at what life is like outside the friendly confines of Dorne.  That doesn't speak to someone who knows what he's doing, or someone who has been allowed to plan.  He's a pawn.  And pawns don't get told the master plan.  Even Arianne is only told after she nearly upsets the apple cart.

And as far as population growth goes, I think we can stick with real world assumptions.  GRRM knows his history, and while we can take a certain latitude in calculation manpower, etc, we also have the history of Westeros to guide us.  There isn't any appreciable population growth; 300 years since the Conquest, the lords of Westeros seem to be raising approximately the same number of troops.  If population growth was anything more than nominal, Westeros would have become overpopulated centuries if not millenia ago.

Dany's goal is the entire realm, not just Dorne.  If the realm is to be taken then numbers damn sure matter.  Dragons matter a great deal, but are not indestructible.  Castles, towns, and keeps will likely need to be stormed.  Moreover, she punished Jorah Mormont for a lie even though he nearly died taking a city for her.  A lie is a lie.  50k troops are being promised, 50k troops would be expected to be delivered.

Quentyn was no mere pawn.  Doran was having him groomed to rule all of Dorne, as Arianne was slated to be the queen for Viserys.  Doran wrote to him intimately, letting him in on his plans because he could not trust Arianne to keep quiet.  He has fostered and trained with the Yronwoods, the second most powerful house in Dorne.  I think Anders Yronwood has a good assessment of Dorne's strength, and by extension so would Quentyn.  For all of his insecurities, he was extremely dutiful and loyal to his father.  Furthermore, He speaks two languages other than Westorosi and can read and write High Valyrian.  I think that is pretty learned and speaks of a high intellect.  Lastly, he was a "green boy" after all.  Of course he was going to be shocked by the perils of Essos.  Doran likely would not have risked him at all had the need not been so great.

The Westerlands raised 45k, the Reach raised 60-70k, the North 20k, and the Lords Declarant (six Vale houses) can raise 20k alone.  The Riverlands (fertile and populous) never got to reach its potential due to Tywin's and Jamie's blitzkrieg warfare, leaving the region total ruins.  The North got up to 30k in King Torrhen day and Rob could have mustered much more had the need for haste not been there.  Martin himself has told us that the North is anything but spent.  We can see that in the mountain clans and the military preparations being made by Manderly.  As stated before, GGRM also told us that the North, Dorne, and Vale are equal in strength, and he as in the past put their numbers at 45k.  Again, Dorne was able to yield a force of 30k without the primary military forces of the region.  Taken together, there is ample evidence that Dorne can raise 50k.

.We know that 20k troops is the baseline for a great host.  Thats just the convention.  That is what Tywin raised, as well as Robb Stark and likely Really Baratheon.  The Lords Declarant can raise 20k by themselves.  Is this the full extent of each region's strength?  No, absolutely not.  I never argued Westeros had experienced a population, except for Dorne after Nymeria's arrival.  I'm sure Marin knows what he is about, but he has left us with text and some numbers to go by.  

 

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7 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Dany's goal is the entire realm, not just Dorne.  If the realm is to be taken then numbers damn sure matter.  Dragons matter a great deal, but are not indestructible.  Castles, towns, and keeps will likely need to be stormed.  Moreover, she punished Jorah Mormont for a lie even though he nearly died taking a city for her.  A lie is a lie.  50k troops are being promised, 50k troops would be expected to be delivered.

First off, she punished Jorah for not asking forgiveness for the lie.  She makes Barristan a trusted advisor despite a lie, too.

Second, I am well aware of what Dany wants.  But she needs political support far more than military support.  She has more troops, and as many dragons, as Aegon the Conqueror had - in a military sense, anything else she's getting is just gravy.  What she needs is political legitimacy.  Aegon I gained it by confirming former kings and nobles in their rights and privileges, by converting to the Faith, etc etc.  Dany has to contend with the living memory of some pretty horrible Targaryen tyranny; as Aegon found out, merely burning everything down isn't conquest.  Dorne is (a) the only kingdom we've seen that has the capability to hold out against dragon-based assault, and (b) as something of a primus inter pares of the Seven Kingdoms in terms of prestige, lends credibility to her cause.  People flock to winning causes; Dany with an entire kingdom behind her is a far more legitimate contender than Dany with 50,000 random troops.  This can't be overstated.

And what if Doran can only raise 49,999 men?  Still a lie?  Still worthy of Dany's wrath.  Your focus on an exact number is ridiculous.

7 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Quentyn was no mere pawn.  Doran was having him groomed to rule all of Dorne, as Arianne was slated to be the queen for Viserys.  Doran wrote to him intimately, letting him in on his plans because he could not trust Arianne to keep quiet. 

Uh, what plan?  He said he'd rule Dorne one day.  That's it.  Really letting the information flow freely.  He's 100% a pawn in this quest to get Dany to come to Westeros.  He's a son of one of the most powerful men in Westeros, and he's making an absurdly dangerous trip with half a dozen companions?  It's the definition of underprepared, and as we see, it causes him to fail.

7 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

 I think Anders Yronwood has a good assessment of Dorne's strength, and by extension so would Quentyn.

So you assume a vassal lord has information we have no indication he has, and then further assume that he'd share that information with his ward.  We're on real sound footing, here.  Not even based on any logic, just what you need for your argument to stand up.

7 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

For all of his insecurities, he was extremely dutiful and loyal to his father.  Furthermore, He speaks two languages other than Westorosi and can read and write High Valyrian.

Knowing High Valyrian isn't much of an accomplishment, the strong implication is that it's taught to most noble kids in the same way Latin was taught to wealthy kids until the last 100 years or so.  Sam Tarly, Arya, even Gerris Drinkwater all have a little High Valyrian.  Sam is intelligent, but we have no indication that Arya or Gerris (a household knight, no less!) are particularly brilliant.

7 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

The Westerlands raised 45k, the Reach raised 60-70k, the North 20k, and the Lords Declarant (six Vale houses) can raise 20k alone.

Tywin includes mercenaries, so don't forget that.  And the Lords Declarant presumably represent at least half of the total strength of the Vale; as others have noted, it doesn't make much sense to start that kind of trouble if you know you'e outnumbered from the start.  And maybe the North raised half it's strength; that's still only 40,000.

7 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

As stated before, GGRM also told us that the North, Dorne, and Vale are equal in strength, and he as in the past put their numbers at 45k.

Then this is another instance of his notorious inability to effectively count when it comes to levy sizes.  He has also told us that Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms.  In pre-Industrial, feudal societies, you are limited in how many soldiers you can have by population.  In the absence of other factors, we should assume that levy size and population size are directly correlated (the vast movable mineral wealth of the West, for example, would imply a higher degree of potential militarization, as we indeed see with Tywin's hiring of mercenaries).  It also doesn't make sense that the Freys are basically one of the ten most powerful Houses in the Seven Kingdoms; as always, some of GRRM's early world-building isn't great.

8 hours ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

.We know that 20k troops is the baseline for a great host.  Thats just the convention.  That is what Tywin raised, as well as Robb Stark and likely Really Baratheon.  The Lords Declarant can raise 20k by themselves.  Is this the full extent of each region's strength?  No, absolutely not.  I never argued Westeros had experienced a population, except for Dorne after Nymeria's arrival.  I'm sure Marin knows what he is about, but he has left us with text and some numbers to go by.  

Uh, who made that baseline (other than you?).  Tywin raised far more than 20,000 men (he just split his forces), and so did Renly.  Renly raised 20,000 cavalry, is where you're making the error.  But it does allow us to extrapolate.  The Lords Declarant must represent a substantial part of the Vale's strength, most likely half or more, because otherwise their pseudo-rebellion gets crushed easily.  Which means the Vale is 40,000+.  Since we know from Doran's own mouth that he can't call 50,000 spears, or even that close, given the context, we can safely assume that Dorne is the weakest of the Seven Kingdoms.  Martin is contradicting his own earlier world-building (not unusual), but in this case is doing so in a way that makes far more sense with what we know of Westeros.

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First off, you're really starting to sound like an impudent whelp instead of someone having an intelligent conversation.  Calm down.  I'm not arguing with you, I simply disagree with you.

1. Barristan deceived her for a legit reason and he only lied about his name.  He needed to know she was not her father.  He was not relaying her every move to the enemy.  She intended to pardon Jorah initially, but could not due to his informing Robert about her unborn child, making him as guilty as the wine seller.

2. Military support and political support are closely intertwined.  It is difficult to have one without the other.  Numbers are very important, as no one likes lost causes.  That's why Doran and others who despised Baratheon/Lannister rule would not oppose them openly.  Stannis was not a serious contender until he got Renly's army.  Those with military strength are more likely to get political support.

Make no mistake, Aegon I claimed his crown by right of conquest first and foremost.  He was shrewd enough to know that he could not administer an entire realm by himself and that it would be unwise to start from scratch.  So, yes he rewarded those who bent the knee.  But, these kings/lords were not bending anything until they were soundly defeated.

3.  Quentyn was being groomed for rule.  End of story.  Doran sent him on a dangerous mission, with an uncertain fate out of absolute need.  He was hoping Danny would accept Quentyn and reaffirm the pact that was made with Viserys.  Quentyn knew full well what was expected of him and did not want to fail his father.  Pawns are ultimately unimportant and expendable.  Quentyn does not match either of those requirements.  As I said earlier, he was a green boy with no experience.  There was simply no way he and his retinue could have prepared for what awaited them in such short time and under such constraints with regard to secrecy.  

4.  Yes, I'm trusting in the knowledge and capabilities of the second most powerful lord in all of Dorne.  The Starks had the Boltons, the Tullys had the Freys, the Arryns have the Royces, the Lannisters had the Reynes and Tarbecks.  Paramount houses and their chief rivals need to have knowledge of the region and of each other for good reason.  The ruling house to stay in power and the chief rival to know when to attempt to assume that power.  Easy enough concept.  Anyway, I'd trust Anders over you any day.

5. You don't equate the ability to grasp multiple languages as a mark of some intelligence?  Ok.  I disagree.

6. How do you know the Lords Declarant's troops are least half the regions strength?  GRRM gave us 45k.  Thats less than half.  And they only took 6k to lay siege.  As I stated earlier, none of the Vale lords were likely to go to war for LF.  Tepid political support is quite different than open warfare against the Lords Declarant.  

Tywin had mercenaries sprinkled into his host.  Ok.  Maybe 500 to 1k at most.  Make no mistake this was a Westerlands' army, filled with Westermen.  

7.  I'm going to leave you to your own endeavor to rewrite a fantasy classic.  Let me reiterate that...a fantasy classic.  He can make the numbers what he likes.  I can only go by what he tells me in the text.  As stated previously, least-populous does not necessarily equate an inability to raise 50k troops, especially when you consider they fight their women as well.  The fact remains that Dorne has demonstrated an ability to raise 30k troops without the regions primary military apparatus.

8.  Once again, I'm looking at the text.  You should do the same and stop throwing a tantrum.  Tywin raised 20k, Robb raised 20k, Renly likely raised 20k, and the Lords Declarant are said to be able to raise 20k.  Moreover, Stannis sends Justin Massey to Essos to raise at least 20k (that damn number again) and not a man less.  This seems to be the baseline for a great host.

Doran never explicitly says he can't raise 50k spears.  That is what you are gleaming from his population comment.  Again, stop trying to rewrite the author's story.

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On 7/27/2018 at 6:13 AM, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Doran never explicitly says he can't raise 50k spears.  That is what you are gleaming from his population comment.  Again, stop trying to rewrite the author's story.

What's the point of the comment if not to talk about army sizes, which he directly references in the quote?

“I never meant her harm,” Arianne insisted. “If Hotah had not interfered . . .”
“. . . you would have crowned Myrcella queen, to raise a rebellion against her brother. Instead of an ear, she would have lost her life.”
“Only if we lost.”
“If? The word is when. Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms. It pleased the Young Dragon to make all our armies larger when he wrote that book of his, so as to make his conquest that much more glorious, and it has pleased us to water the seed he planted and let our foes think us more powerful than we are, but a princess ought to know the truth. Valor is a poor substitute for numbers. Dorne cannot hope to win a war against the Iron Throne, not alone. And yet that may well be what you have given us. Are you proud?” The prince did not allow her time to answer. “What am I to do with you, Arianne?”

 

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Sure he is talking about army sizes and population.  That is not in dispute.  However, we don't know the exact numbers that the Young Dragon exaggerated.  We only know that he made Dorne's armies larger than they actually are.  How large did he make them is the question?  Tryion thinks Dorne can raise 50k.  Quentyn says they can raise 50k.  Past evidence (the Vulture King and the fact that they train and fight their women as well) would suggest that 50k is indeed possible.  Moreover, 50k is not enough to win a war against the Iron Throne alone, unless Dorne is fighting a defensive war like they have in the past.  That makes Doran's quote about population and army size no less true.  Raising such a number would likely mean scouring Dorne and emptying it of all of its possible fighting capacity.  This is likely not true of all the other regions of the realm.  The question since the beginning is can Dorne indeed raise 50k, and it would seem that it is possible.  It could be that they cannot, but we have to wait on GRRM's final word to know for certain.  Until then, it is ambiguous.   

Also, note that Dorne has sent considerable hosts outside of the country before.  During the first Dornish war, they sent two hosts forth in retaliation for devastating dragon attacks.  One took and burned Nightsong, while the other marched to the very walls of Oldtown itself. Nightsong is said to be very formidable and to reach Oldtown's walls through the Reach is serious business.  Both endeavors required substantial forces.  Lastly, to have your entire country decimated by the Targaryens and still repel a superior invading force requires sufficient numbers.  This is by no means dispositive, but is a good indicator can field large number despite being the least populous kingdom.  Again, we won't know for sure until GRRM tells us.

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I would both beware of trusting the figures of the Vulture King's forces, and bear in mind that the bulk of his forces were armed rabble rather than a proper fighting force. His early successes led to a swell in the size of the rabble, and then said rabble proved an active detriment -- they fought poorly, and their logistical strain led to the splitting of forces that made them easily defeated by a more properly raised force despite said force being substantially outnumbered.

I'm sure any great house could in theory just throw caution to the wind and pack the bulk of their forces with people poorly equipped and poorly trained, but they don't do it because it's not worth the effort. It's the sort of thing you do when you're at the end of your rope and have nothing else to lose, or maybe you gather up the locals to defend their homes rather than as an expeditionary force.

George has been pretty explicit that the figures touted prior to AFfC were exaggerations, as per his statements during his signing tour in 2005. So the "50,000 spears" thing is clearly untrue. Whether the real figure is 20,000 or 40,000 or something in between, we do not know for sure as George will not be pinned down (that said, there's reason to guess 25,000-30,000 is nearer the mark). But 50,000 is  definitely not what the Prince of Dorne believes he can raise in AFfC.

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22 minutes ago, Ran said:

I would both beware of trusting the figures of the Vulture King's forces, and bear in mind that the bulk of his forces were armed rabble rather than a proper fighting force. His early successes led to a swell in the size of the rabble, and then said rabble proved an active detriment -- they fought poorly, and their logistical strain led to the splitting of forces that made them easily defeated by a more properly raised force despite said force being substantially outnumbered.

I'm sure any great house could in theory just throw caution to the wind and pack the bulk of their forces with people poorly equipped and poorly trained, but they don't do it because it's not worth the effort. It's the sort of thing you do when you're at the end of your rope and have nothing else to lose, or maybe you gather up the locals to defend their homes rather than as an expeditionary force.

George has been pretty explicit that the figures touted prior to AFfC were exaggerations, as per his statements during his signing tour in 2005. So the "50,000 spears" thing is clearly untrue. Whether the real figure is 20,000 or 40,000 or something in between, we do not know for sure as George will not be pinned down (that said, there's reason to guess 25,000-30,000 is nearer the mark). But 50,000 is  definitely not what the Prince of Dorne believes he can raise in AFfC.

Fully agree with this.

My view is 30k, to put them above the Ironborn, to fit with the Fowlers raising 10k while ruling roughly a third of Dorne, and to broadly fit with the Vulture King ballpark figures.

For some reason a view exists that Doran confirmed that Dorne’s strength was about half of the previously rumoured 50k, but as you say above, and as I have said for a long time, this 25k number just appeared out of thin air on the board in some discussion in the last 10 years and seemed to take on a legitimacy of its own. In truth, 25k is never mentioned or even implied by Doran or by George.

30k seems to fit all the various bits of information (meaning both the lower and upper contextual constraints imposed by various other events and army sizes from other kingdoms) better than any other number.

Edit

To expand, these broad constraints include, but are not limited to, the references to the historical Fowler army size, the Vulture King references, the implied size of the Ironborn armies judging by their ship numbers, the need for the Stormlands to have a higher population (and by implication larger army size than Dorne, based on Doran’s statement).

There are more, but these are some of the examples that make a 30k strength seem to be in the sweet spot compared to other touted numbers.

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22 minutes ago, Ran said:

I would both beware of trusting the figures of the Vulture King's forces, and bear in mind that the bulk of his forces were armed rabble rather than a proper fighting force. His early successes led to a swell in the size of the rabble, and then said rabble proved an active detriment -- they fought poorly, and their logistical strain led to the splitting of forces that made them easily defeated by a more properly raised force despite said force being substantially outnumbered.

The problem with this numbers thing is that we really have no clue how much 'rabble' is among the various armies we see in the series. Are Renly's 80,000 men 80,000 lords, knights, freeriders, and men-at-arms, or is there a significant amount of rabble among them, etc.

Doran most likely talks about professional Dornish spears when he is downplaying Dornish strength, but we have no clue whether all the other guys talking about army numbers do care about that.

And whenever we are being given just the size of this and that army, rabble and camp followers and the like would have been among them, since the chances are not very good people would only have counted 'proper soldiers'.

And that really throws things around considering that if Dornish rabble making up the bulk of an army back in 37 AC without the infrastructure of Dorne collapsing (i.e. all Dornish peasants and farmhands being in the Dornish marches) how large must be the difference in numbers between a 'proper army' consisting mostly of professional fighters and an army with a high degree of 'rabble'.

If we take this seriously then all the Seven Kingdoms must have the potential to raise tens of thousands of men in addition to the professional troops the various noble houses can raise.

And from there all serious speculation on the matter breaks down until such a time as the author gives us information on the amount of 'rabble' that marched with Robb, Renly, Tywin, etc.

22 minutes ago, Ran said:

George has been pretty explicit that the figures touted prior to AFfC were exaggerations, as per his statements during his signing tour in 2005. So the "50,000 spears" thing is clearly untrue. Whether the real figure is 20,000 or 40,000 or something in between, we do not know for sure as George will not be pinned down (that said, there's reason to guess 25,000-30,000 is nearer the mark). But 50,000 is  definitely not what the Prince of Dorne believes he can raise in AFfC.

I really don't think we have to downplay the number of Dornishmen involved in the war against the Young Dragon. There were not just armies clashing in this war, but also smallfolk resisting the oppressors and occupying forces - men, women, and children who would have never been part of any professional Dornish army (not even 'rabble' as such) - and that would greatly increase the number of people who became combatants.

Granted, Daeron would have written his book before the Dornish uprising, and thus he might indeed have been exaggerating, but that doesn't mean he didn't get the numbers right by accident.

The chances that Dorne could marshal the same amount of troops in a war for the Iron Throne than in war to defend Dorne (or resist an invading force) are very slow. And Doran has no intention to draw the enemy to Dorne to make his people suffer the way the Princes of Dorne did prior to arrival of the second Daenerys and the Water Gardens lesson - Meria Martell and the later Dornish princes paid for their independence with the blood and well-being of their people. But that's not Doran's policy (and apparently not the policy of the Princes of Dorne since the Water Gardens).

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5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem with this numbers thing is that we really have no clue how much 'rabble' is among the various armies we see in the series. Are Renly's 80,000 men 80,000 lords, knights, freeriders, and men-at-arms, or is there a significant amount of rabble among them, etc.

Doran most likely talks about professional Dornish spears when he is downplaying Dornish strength, but we have no clue whether all the other guys talking about army numbers do care about that.

And whenever we are being given just the size of this and that army, rabble and camp followers and the like would have been among them, since the chances are not very good people would only have counted 'proper soldiers'.

And that really throws things around considering that if Dornish rabble making up the bulk of an army back in 37 AC without the infrastructure of Dorne collapsing (i.e. all Dornish peasants and farmhands being in the Dornish marches) how large must be the difference in numbers between a 'proper army' consisting mostly of professional fighters and an army with a high degree of 'rabble'.

If we take this seriously then all the Seven Kingdoms must have the potential to raise tens of thousands of men in addition to the professional troops the various noble houses can raise.

And from there all serious speculation on the matter breaks down until such a time as the author gives us information on the amount of 'rabble' that marched with Robb, Renly, Tywin, etc.

I really don't think we have to downplay the number of Dornishmen involved in the war against the Young Dragon. There were not just armies clashing in this war, but also smallfolk resisting the oppressors and occupying forces - men, women, and children who would have never been part of any professional Dornish army (not even 'rabble' as such) - and that would greatly increase the number of people who became combatants.

Granted, Daeron would have written his book before the Dornish uprising, and thus he might indeed have been exaggerating, but that doesn't mean he didn't get the numbers right by accident.

The chances that Dorne could marshal the same amount of troops in a war for the Iron Throne than in war to defend Dorne (or resist an invading force) are very slow. And Doran has no intention to draw the enemy to Dorne to make his people suffer the way the Princes of Dorne did prior to arrival of the second Daenerys and the Water Gardens lesson - Meria Martell and the later Dornish princes paid for their independence with the blood and well-being of their people. But that's not Doran's policy (and apparently not the policy of the Princes of Dorne since the Water Gardens).

The simplest and most reasonable assumption, barring direct contradictory information, is that all the lords (and  George) use the same basic point of reference when referring to armed strength. Meaning the logistically mobilizable proper armies each kingdoms can raise and project.

Rabble would be something separate.

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

I would both beware of trusting the figures of the Vulture King's forces, and bear in mind that the bulk of his forces were armed rabble rather than a proper fighting force. His early successes led to a swell in the size of the rabble, and then said rabble proved an active detriment -- they fought poorly, and their logistical strain led to the splitting of forces that made them easily defeated by a more properly raised force despite said force being substantially outnumbered.

I'm sure any great house could in theory just throw caution to the wind and pack the bulk of their forces with people poorly equipped and poorly trained, but they don't do it because it's not worth the effort. It's the sort of thing you do when you're at the end of your rope and have nothing else to lose, or maybe you gather up the locals to defend their homes rather than as an expeditionary force.

George has been pretty explicit that the figures touted prior to AFfC were exaggerations, as per his statements during his signing tour in 2005. So the "50,000 spears" thing is clearly untrue. Whether the real figure is 20,000 or 40,000 or something in between, we do not know for sure as George will not be pinned down (that said, there's reason to guess 25,000-30,000 is nearer the mark). But 50,000 is  definitely not what the Prince of Dorne believes he can raise in AFfC.

Fair enough, I'll take you at your word Ran with regard to official military power.  However, as previously stated rabble is sometimes all that is left if needed.  Witness the third Lannister army does was being constructed by Stafford that was 10k strong.  If I recall this was likely the dregs of Lannisport and the like.  With proper time and effort, it could have been molded into a proper force.  Similarly, it is stated that Oldtown can muster even more men to its considerable fighting capacity of it swept the cobblestones and took every available body out of the city.  I think Dorne can do likewise if the desperation sets in.

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2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The simplest and most reasonable assumption, barring direct contradictory information, is that all the lords (and  George) use the same basic point of reference when referring to armed strength. Meaning the logistically mobilizable proper armies each kingdoms can raise and project.

Rabble would be something separate.

We already have tons of textual evidence that this is not the case. In the case of the size of Renly's and Tormund's people men are counted by the means of extrapolating from the number of camp fires. Last time I looked camp followers, rabble, and mounted knights would make use of camp fires in the night.

We also have Gyldayn usually giving us much smaller numbers for the armies fighting in the Dance - specifying the numbers of knights, archers, and men-at-arms in a given army. He usually doesn't count rabble and marks them especially as such when he mentions the (as done in the Vulture King's case).

In the main series we usually are just given overall army sizes - the quality of infantry is never elaborated upon which most definitely casts doubt on the quality of the men in all the armies. Especially the quality of the men in those vast armies we see during the series (especially Renly's).

It is made clear that Stafford's army didn't have as many quality men as Tywin's or Jaime's, but we simply don't know how much 'rabble' was Tywin/Jaime and how much with Stafford (aside from the fact that Stafford had much more than Tywin/Jaime).

2 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Doesn't TSOTD mention that the Vulture King's army includes "hundreds of knights" and "hundreds of seasoned spearmen"?

It is actually 'hundreds of knights' and 'several thousand seasoned spearmen'. And it is not that this 'rabble' wasn't capable of storming castles. They took Blackhaven by storm, don't forget that, and that was before the Vulture King had 30,000 men.

In the end they lacked the ability/discipline to stand against trained mounted knights - just as the Poor Fellows stood no chance against the knights and lords crushing them on Maegor's behalf.

But I'm not sure this is a dichotomy between 'rabble' and 'proper soldiers' but rather a disparity between having much/any armored cavalry and having a sufficient number of armored knights. The Vulture King would have split his 'hundreds of knights' between his two armies, one assumes.

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4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We already have tons of textual evidence that this is not the case. In the case of the size of Renly's and Tormund's people men are counted by the means of extrapolating from the number of camp fires. Last time I looked camp followers, rabble, and mounted knights would make use of camp fires in the night.

We also have Gyldayn usually giving us much smaller numbers for the armies fighting in the Dance - specifying the numbers of knights, archers, and men-at-arms in a given army. He usually doesn't count rabble and marks them especially as such when he mentions the (as done in the Vulture King's case).

In the main series we usually are just given overall army sizes - the quality of infantry is never elaborated upon which most definitely casts doubt on the quality of the men in all the armies. Especially the quality of the men in those vast armies we see during the series (especially Renly's).

It is made clear that Stafford's army didn't have as many quality men as Tywin's or Jaime's, but we simply don't know how much 'rabble' was Tywin/Jaime and how much with Stafford (aside from the fact that Stafford had much more than Tywin/Jaime).

It is actually 'hundreds of knights' and 'several thousand seasoned spearmen'. And it is not that this 'rabble' wasn't capable of storming castles. They took Blackhaven by storm, don't forget that, and that was before the Vulture King had 30,000 men.

In the end they lacked the ability/discipline to stand against trained mounted knights - just as the Poor Fellows stood no chance against the knights and lords crushing them on Maegor's behalf.

But I'm not sure this is a dichotomy between 'rabble' and 'proper soldiers' but rather a disparity between having much/any armored cavalry and having a sufficient number of armored knights. The Vulture King would have split his 'hundreds of knights' between his two armies, one assumes.

Agreed Lord Varys.  I'm of a mind that Tywin would not take 'rabble' unless it was absolutely necessary.  So, the 35k that he and Jaime put into the field is likely the Westerlands' proper fighting power.  And yes, it seems that the Vulture Kings' force would have been more difficult to defeat had he not split his forces into two.  So, it's not inconceivable that Dorne could add another 10k+ to its 30k strong (lets call that the number for the time being) force.

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20 minutes ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Fair enough, I'll take you at your word Ran with regard to official military power.  However, as previously stated rabble is sometimes all that is left if needed.  Witness the third Lannister army does was being constructed by Stafford that was 10k strong.  

No number is ever given in the books for that host under Stafford. 10k is a guess on someone's part that seems to have been taken as canon.

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3 minutes ago, Stallion That Mounts Texas said:

Agreed Lord Varys.  I'm of a mind that Tywin would not take 'rabble' unless it was absolutely necessary.  So, the 35k that he and Jaime put into the field is likely the Westerlands' proper fighting power.  And yes, it seems that the Vulture Kings' force would have been more difficult to defeat had he not split his forces into two.  So, it's not inconceivable that Dorne could add another 10k+ to its 30k strong (lets call that the number for the time being) force.

Since we don't learn that there were any Martell, Yronwood, Fowler, Dayne, etc. knights among the Vulture King's men I cannot but think that another 10,000 men in addition to the rabble is far too few.

With the Lannister hosts (as well as the Stark army Robb assembled) it is indeed very likely that most of those men were not rabble, but we don't get any numbers on that.

Stafford's defeat has more to do with them being surprised than with the quality of his men. But, yeah, he had more untrained men than Tywin/Jaime. We can compare Robb's attack on Stafford with the trap Artys Arryn used in the Battle of the Seven Stars or Addam Velaryon's surprise attack at Second Tumbleton. In both cases we had seasoned soldiers being crushed because they were surprised/lured into a trap.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Granted, Daeron would have written his book before the Dornish uprising, and thus he might indeed have been exaggerating, but that doesn't mean he didn't get the numbers right by accident.

He obviously didn't, since the Prince of Dorne says those numbers were exaggerated. Doran presumably has access to the records of his ancestors, their letters, their inventories, etc., and so has a sense of the truth that the Martells have deliberately kept hidden from everyone else.

At the same time, Daeron's book is the obvious source of the common wisdom of 50,000 spears. It is a well-known, well-regarded military text, so it's probably widely disseminated -- no doubt there's a copy in Winterfell's library, re: Jon and Robb playing at being the Young Dragon and other heroes -- and people take the numbers it gives at face value, and simply assume that things haven't changed that much and that they were accurate when Daeron put them down.

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32 minutes ago, Ran said:

He obviously didn't, since the Prince of Dorne says those numbers were exaggerated. Doran presumably has access to the records of his ancestors, their letters, their inventories, etc., and so has a sense of the truth that the Martells have deliberately kept hidden from everyone else.

That is a lot of speculation, especially in light of the fact that the course of Daeron's war implies that various smaller Dornish hosts were forced to fight against the Targaryens, making it not that very likely that Sunspear ever got the numbers of the men who were actually taking up arms against the invaders.

I'm sure the Martells do know pretty well how many men their subjects can marshal, but I'd be surprised if they actually knew how many of their people actually fought in the war.

But my point actually was that the Dornishmen and -women who actually took up arms against the Young Dragon during the course of the entire war might have indeed been 50,000 people due to the fact that, in the end, all Dorne rose against the dragons, and not just the people drawn into service.

In the uprising even people left at home would have played a role - old people poisoning wells, women cutting the throats of drunk garrisons, etc. - people being the equivalent to the servants and people of Winterfell chafing under Theon's heel after he had taken Winterfell.

But Doran Martell would never send such people into battle, explaining why this 'strength' can't be part of a proper assessment of Dornish military power. Yet this strength was still crucial in the Dornish victories of the First Dornish War as well as of Daeron's Conquest.

In that sense, the Young Dragon's numbers might be accidentally 'more correct' in relation to the Dornish he and his people had to deal with until the end of the war even if they weren't a correct assessment of the Dornish spears the Martells raised to fight off the invaders during Daeron's original Conquest.

32 minutes ago, Ran said:

At the same time, Daeron's book is the obvious source of the common wisdom of 50,000 spears. It is a well-known, well-regarded military text, so it's probably widely disseminated -- no doubt there's a copy in Winterfell's library, re: Jon and Robb playing at being the Young Dragon and other heroes -- and people take the numbers it gives at face value, and simply assume that things haven't changed that much and that they were accurate when Daeron put them down.

That goes without saying.

But even there - Dorne is not likely to be able to utilize the same 'regular military strength' for a campaign/war for the Iron Throne which would be fought in the Stormlands, Reach, Crownlands (or perhaps even in the Riverlands and the West) than they could hope to muster to fight against enemy invaders. Aegon or Daenerys are never going to get the same amount of support the Prince of Dorne got whenever the Targaryens invaded Dorne. 

Much more people can (and would be willing to) fight against men who are burning their homes and fields, raping their wives, etc. then people would/could fight in distant lands.

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33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a lot of speculation, especially in light of the fact that the course of Daeron's war implies that various smaller Dornish hosts were forced to fight against the Targaryens, making it not that very likely that Sunspear ever got the numbers of the men who were actually taking up arms against the invaders.

I'm sure the Martells do know pretty well how many men their subjects can marshal, but I'd be surprised if they actually knew how many of their people actually fought in the war.

But my point actually was that the Dornishmen and -women who actually took up arms against the Young Dragon during the course of the entire war might have indeed been 50,000 people due to the fact that, in the end, all Dorne rose against the dragons, and not just the people drawn into service.

In the uprising even people left at home would have played a role - old people poisoning wells, women cutting the throats of drunk garrisons, etc. - people being the equivalent to the servants and people of Winterfell chafing under Theon's heel after he had taken Winterfell.

But Doran Martell would never send such people into battle, explaining why this 'strength' can't be part of a proper assessment of Dornish military power. Yet this strength was still crucial in the Dornish victories of the First Dornish War as well as of Daeron's Conquest.

In that sense, the Young Dragon's numbers might be accidentally 'more correct' in relation to the Dornish he and his people had to deal with until the end of the war even if they weren't a correct assessment of the Dornish spears the Martells raised to fight off the invaders during Daeron's original Conquest.

That goes without saying.

But even there - Dorne is not likely to be able to utilize the same 'regular military strength' for a campaign/war for the Iron Throne which would be fought in the Stormlands, Reach, Crownlands (or perhaps even in the Riverlands and the West) than they could hope to muster to fight against enemy invaders. Aegon or Daenerys are never going to get the same amount of support the Prince of Dorne got whenever the Targaryens invaded Dorne. 

Much more people can (and would be willing to) fight against men who are burning their homes and fields, raping their wives, etc. then people would/could fight in distant lands.

This is a rather extraordinary line of reasoning. Basically, Martin outright tells us (through Doran) that

1. Daeron overstated the Dornish numbers

2. That Done is in fact the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms and

3. That the leaders of Dorne deliberately allowed and even encouraged this misperception to continue.

Since you acknowledge that Daeron's book is almost certainly the  standard source of military education of lords across the realm on Dorne's 50k strength, it then follows that it is this 50k strength that is the overstated figure Doran is referring to.

Hence, if 50k is the exaggerated number, the "real" number must be lower than that. (Else  Doran's book would not portray an overstatement, if I need to be any clearer).

So if not 50k, then what? Well, Doran further says that Dorne has the lowest population of all the seven kingdoms. Meaning the army size most likely is smaller than that of the kingdom with the second lowest population, which would from other evidence, be the Stormlands. (Iron isles excluded, of course).

And since the Stormlands is a geographically small, rather militarized kingdom, one would think that the Stormlands likely has a rather high mobilization ratio, with little travel or communication problems to raise their full strength, unlike the rather large, harsh Dorne.

Since it is highly unlikely that the Stormlands has in the region of 40k men, based on circumstantial evidence to date, it seems a strength of 35k is kind of the maximum we can assign to the Stormlands, perhaps even closer to 30k is more likely.

Meaning, that around 30k is the logical maximum strength of Dorne, to fit with all the above.

As for Quentyn, it suddenly occurs to me that if Doran emphasizes that Dorne has actively encouraged the perpetuation of the 50k spears myth, Quentyn might well have been trained to deliberately use this number, to continue supporting this myth. So it need not be that Quentyn is unaware of the true state of affairs, seeing as his father had trusted him with so many other secrets. Instead, he was just continuing the party line, the propaganda portraying Dorne as more powerful than it truly is, given that it is deemed important to their national security to do so.

In short, he was most likely lying to Daenerys, rather than just being ignorant of the true state of affairs as Arriane was.

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45 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

This is a rather extraordinary line of reasoning. Basically, Martin outright tells us (through Doran) that

1. Daeron overstated the Dornish numbers

2. That Done is in fact the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms and

3. That the leaders of Dorne deliberately allowed and even encouraged this misperception to continue.

Since you acknowledge that Daeron's book is almost certainly the  standard source of military education of lords across the realm on Dorne's 50k strength, it then follows that it is this 50k strength that is the overstated figure Doran is referring to.

Indeed. It's pretty straightforward. 

45 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:


As for Quentyn

I believe he is probably in fact unaware of the truth, that it's the sort of careful fiction that is part of the Martells' oversight of censuses and taxes that would not be revealed until the time was right for the successor to know it, but yes, if he was aware of the truth, he still knows to perpetuate the fiction, even to Daenerys. Why wouldn't he? 50,000 certainly sounds like a better reason to marry him and go to Dorne than 25k-30k.

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