LF, Sansa and the Vale

[Tagganaro]

40 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I don't know if the George has ever acknowledged a pattern, but if it is a pattern then the POV should be a maester, or maester affiliated, and should involve some sort of magic.  It's kind of confusing because I'm not sure what magic could be involved, but a maester being in the convoy seems likely.

If the 600 northern joined the BWB, then they would have the strength to attack the convoy, especially if some other riverlords gave some strength to them as well.   I believe Prestor has 400 men, or was it 800?  I know it got doubled again at the last minute.

Either way Edmure should die, which would make Sansa lady of Riverrun to anyone who doesn't know that Bran and Rickon are alive, such as LF.

My issue with the "pattern" theory is that it would have been pretty easy to switch ADWD epilogue with the TWOW prologue right?  So he could have easily made a Maester Pycelle prologue and gotten similar information across that he used Kevan Lannister for.  Either way, I'm not sure GRRM would care so much about a pattern like that.

I believe Prester either has 200 or 400.  I'm not sure which amount off the top of my head.  I remember there was 100 to start, which was then doubled, but I also seem to recall a 2nd doubling which would put it at 400.  Not sure of that though.

And also I'd say that your earlier thoughts and @Helenas Musikautomat about Daven Lannister telling Jaime that his men have reported seeing "signal fires" all around them.  This definitely suggests some kind of communication network of the Brotherhood, which may allow them to quickly find targets of interest (e.g. the Freys hanged almost instantly upon being sent home by Jaime from the siege of Riverrun and Brienne finding Jaime at Pennytree).

And yes, about Edmure dying we have Jaime giving very specific and explicit orders to place archers around Edmure and Jeyne and kill them on the first sign of escape...that could definitely happen.

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

18 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

My issue with the "pattern" theory is that it would have been pretty easy to switch ADWD epilogue with the TWOW prologue right?  So he could have easily made a Maester Pycelle prologue and gotten similar information across that he used Kevan Lannister for.  Either way, I'm not sure GRRM would care so much about a pattern like that.

I believe Prester either has 200 or 400.  I'm not sure which amount off the top of my head.  I remember there was 100 to start, which was then doubled, but I also seem to recall a 2nd doubling which would put it at 400.  Not sure of that though.

And also I'd say that your earlier thoughts and @Helenas Musikautomat about Daven Lannister telling Jaime that his men have reported seeing "signal fires" all around them.  This definitely suggests some kind of communication network of the Brotherhood, which may allow them to quickly find targets of interest (e.g. the Freys hanged almost instantly upon being sent home by Jaime from the siege of Riverrun and Brienne finding Jaime at Pennytree).

And yes, about Edmure dying we have Jaime giving very specific and explicit orders to place archers around Edmure and Jeyne and kill them on the first sign of escape...that could definitely happen.

 

Since Pycelle was already dead it would have not revealed very much, I don't think his writing one non prologue chapter should have any effect on the next prologue.  If it is an attack on Prestor the prologue will occur before the epilogue.  Same way the Theon sample chapter occurs before Jons last chapter.

[Nevets]

20 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The BF could only have stayed in Riverrun or joined up with the Brotherhood at a pre disclosed location.  He simply would not have survived otherwise.  He is in his 60's and would have had to submerge completely in near freezing water, then remain in said near freezing water for some time to get past the encampment.  Being fully soaked and surrounded by hostile men searching for him, he would have no horse and wouldn't be able to start a fire or he would be caught by his pursuers.

Thus I believe he either hid in Riverrun in a hidey hole like the Conningtons did in The Griffin Reborn chapter.  This would allow him to potentially open a gate for the brotherhood at an opportune moment.  Or, given the fact that Jeyne is in the prologue, and thus the pov will likely die, he could also be with the BWB and they could attack the group.  If he met up with a few men with an extra horse and dry clothes a few miles down the river, he could have survived, although it would still have been rough.

Edit:  Since Edmure was alone with Tom O Sevens, it is likely they talked and could have come up with either plan.

There was the Riverrun garrison that was disarmed and set free by Jaime.  Blackfish could have arranged with some of them to pull him from the water or at least meet him with shelter and warm, dry clothes.  That would be my best guess, considering they were already with him beforehand.

5 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

If the 600 northern joined the BWB, then they would have the strength to attack the convoy, especially if some other riverlords gave some strength to them as well.   I believe Prestor has 400 men, or was it 800?  I know it got doubled again at the last minute.

Forley has 400 men under his command.  Given the speed with which they are likely headed West, I doubt that an effective rescue could be launched before they arrive in friendly territory.  My personal suspicion is that Jeyne's appearance will come with her arrival, under escort, at Casterly Rock.

As for LF, the subject of this thread, I doubt he has much interest in taking charge of the Riverlands until the violence settles down.  He has no interest in presiding over a civil war.  I'm not sure how much interest Sansa has in the region either.  Her heart seems to be in the North, which is where I suspect her story is headed.

As for Lady Stoneheart, I doubt that she is aware of Ltitlefinger's alleged natural daughter.  From what I remember from Arya's chapters, it appears that the common population has difficulty getting reliable news, especially from other regions.  

[Lollygag]

Regarding news traveling about Lysa’s death:

Lysa dies in ASOS Chapter 80 and Arya hears of Lysa’s death in Chapter 34 across the sea in Braavos.

AFFC Cat of the Canals

Cat knew that the men off the Brazen Monkey would not care about the name of a courtesan's mother, though. Instead, she asked them for tidings of the Seven Kingdoms, and the war.

"War?" laughed one of them. "What war? There is no war."

"Not in Gulltown," said another. "Not in the Vale. The little lord's kept us out of it, same as his mother did."

Same as his mother did. The lady of the Vale was her own mother's sister. "Lady Lysa," she said, "is she . . . ?"

". . . dead?" finished the freckled boy whose head was full of courtesans. "Aye. Murdered by her own singer."

"Oh." It's nought to me. Cat of the Canals never had an aunt. She never did. Cat lifted her barrow and wheeled away from the Brazen Monkey, bumping over cobblestones. "Oysters, clams, and cockles," she called. "Oysters, clams, and cockles." She sold most of her clams to the porters off-loading the big wine cog from the Arbor, and the rest to the men repairing a Myrish trading galley that had been savaged by the storms.

 

Cersei has heard about it as of AFFC Cersei II

When he dies I will find someone else. Perhaps she would recall Littlefinger. The queen could not imagine that Petyr Baelish would be allowed to remain Lord Protector of the Vale for very long, with Lysa Arryn dead. The Vale lords were already stirring, if what Pycelle said was true. Once they take that wretched boy away from him, Lord Petyr will come crawling back.

 

Brienne hears about it as of AFFC Brienne III

Lord Randyll gave her a contemptuous look. "Lady Lysa is dead. Some singer pushed her off a mountain. Littlefinger holds the Eyrie now . . . though not for long. The lords of the Vale are not the sort to bend their knees to some upjumped jackanapes whose only skill is counting coppers."

 

Tywin is killed by Tyrion at the end of ASOS, and Jon has heard word of it from the King’s Road travelers by ADWD Jon III

"It is not my intent to choose any side," said Jon, "but I am not as certain of the outcome of this war as you seem to be, my lord. Not with Lord Tywin dead." If the tales coming up the kingsroad could be believed, the King's Hand had been murdered by his dwarf son whilst sitting on a privy.

The Riverlands and the Vale are not that far and news of Lysa’s death would travel fast in the Riverlands as she’s a Tully and given the Blackfish’s connection with both places.

 

[Tagganaro]

16 hours ago, Nevets said:

There was the Riverrun garrison that was disarmed and set free by Jaime.  Blackfish could have arranged with some of them to pull him from the water or at least meet him with shelter and warm, dry clothes.  That would be my best guess, considering they were already with him beforehand.

Ah, forgot about the garrison that was set free.  That just adds even more pieces to the complicated Riverlands scenario.

Quote

Forley has 400 men under his command.  Given the speed with which they are likely headed West, I doubt that an effective rescue could be launched before they arrive in friendly territory.  My personal suspicion is that Jeyne's appearance will come with her arrival, under escort, at Casterly Rock.

It depends, but I can't really imagine a column of 400 men travelling speedily through the Riverlands with all the stuff going on.  Not to mention you may be having weather issues such as snow at this point too.  I think a very effective rescue could be launched considering again that you have mention of these "signal fires" all around the Riverlands and the Brotherhood have a habit of showing up exactly on point and on time.  I would definitely like to see Casterly Rock though so I wouldn't complain if this was the case.

Quote

As for LF, the subject of this thread, I doubt he has much interest in taking charge of the Riverlands until the violence settles down.  He has no interest in presiding over a civil war.  I'm not sure how much interest Sansa has in the region either.  Her heart seems to be in the North, which is where I suspect her story is headed.

From what I understand of LF's plans, I think he has no intention of ever even being seated at Harrenhall.  He used it as a stepping stone to marry Lysa and get the Vale, and he will probably try to leverage Sansa and the Vale to get the North.    So yes, completely agree that LF wants the North, and Sansa isn't gonna care too much about the Riverlands at the moment.

Quote

As for Lady Stoneheart, I doubt that she is aware of Ltitlefinger's alleged natural daughter.  From what I remember from Arya's chapters, it appears that the common population has difficulty getting reliable news, especially from other regions.  

It's an interesting question.  I do seem to recall that we get some throwaway line that Stoneheart and the Brotherhood is actively looking for both Sansa and Arya.  If that is the case, you'd imagine that like Ser Shadrich who is also searching for Sansa one of the first places to go to look for her would be the Vale.  We might guess Stoneheart has some sort of spy in the Eyrie but would the spy be able to get word to Stoneheart about Alayne even if there was a spy? 

[aryagonnakill#2]

LF is way to smart to try and send an army north during winter.  Consolidating his hold on the Riverlands is the best he can hope for, and removing the Freys would do just that.  George doesn't ignore logistics entirely.

[Clegane'sPup]

17 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Regarding news traveling about Lysa’s death:

That was a nice piece of information you provided. Thanks.

 

[Nevets]

7 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

It depends, but I can't really imagine a column of 400 men travelling speedily through the Riverlands with all the stuff going on.  Not to mention you may be having weather issues such as snow at this point too.  I think a very effective rescue could be launched considering again that you have mention of these "signal fires" all around the Riverlands and the Brotherhood have a habit of showing up exactly on point and on time.  I would definitely like to see Casterly Rock though so I wouldn't complain if this was the case.

Riverrun isn't too far from the edge of the Westerlands.  It's a straight shot from Riverrun to the Golden Tooth on a good road.  I don't see it taking more than 3 or 4 days, and doubt a successful rescue could be planned and mounted in that time.  I also think any rescue attempt would likely end in disaster.

If there is a rescue, I would expect it to be of the prisoners the Freys have been ordered to send to KL.  This may be what they are saving Jaime for.  Come to think of it, those prisoners might be of even more value than the ones Ser Forley is escorting. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

37 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Riverrun isn't too far from the edge of the Westerlands.  It's a straight shot from Riverrun to the Golden Tooth on a good road.  I don't see it taking more than 3 or 4 days, and doubt a successful rescue could be planned and mounted in that time.  I also think any rescue attempt would likely end in disaster.

If there is a rescue, I would expect it to be of the prisoners the Freys have been ordered to send to KL.  This may be what they are saving Jaime for.  Come to think of it, those prisoners might be of even more value than the ones Ser Forley is escorting. 

Until finding out Jeyne was in the prologue, I thought the same thing, but the POV dies in the prologues and I don't see why anyone would die just walking into Casterly Rock.

[Nevets]

3 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Until finding out Jeyne was in the prologue, I thought the same thing, but the POV dies in the prologues and I don't see why anyone would die just walking into Casterly Rock.

Chett is still alive at the end of the ASOS prologue, though he does die before the next chapter of that story.  In any event, I am less than totally convinced that this is a deliberate pattern that GRRM feels bound to adhere to.

[Blackfish Tully]

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

Riverrun isn't too far from the edge of the Westerlands.  It's a straight shot from Riverrun to the Golden Tooth on a good road.  I don't see it taking more than 3 or 4 days, and doubt a successful rescue could be planned and mounted in that time.  I also think any rescue attempt would likely end in disaster.

If there is a rescue, I would expect it to be of the prisoners the Freys have been ordered to send to KL.  This may be what they are saving Jaime for.  Come to think of it, those prisoners might be of even more value than the ones Ser Forley is escorting. 

looking at a map it looks to me that it's more like 9 or 10 days of travel to the Golden Tooth from Riverrun and you have to believe that they would be tracked the whole time by the BWB not to mention that Blackfish would have suspected that the Lannisters would be looking to get Edmure and Jeyne to the Westerlands so the moment he got out of Riverrun he would have been planning the rescue . 

 

20 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

.

From what I understand of LF's plans, I think he has no intention of ever even being seated at Harrenhall.  He used it as a stepping stone to marry Lysa and get the Vale, and he will probably try to leverage Sansa and the Vale to get the North.    So yes, completely agree that LF wants the North, and Sansa isn't gonna care too much about the Riverlands at the moment.

 

The problem with trying to figure out Littlefinger's plans is the fact that everything we have seen about Littlefinger has been through the eyes of his enemies and his  victims so we have to be really careful in assuming we have any idea what his plans truly are but i agree with a previous poster that the Riverlands is where he will make his move as opposed to the North . He knows the Riverlands and he is the Lord Paramount there so it would make sense that he would try to make some moves there .