2017: Sons of dragon, 2018: Fire and Blood, 2019 ..

[Lady Fevre Dream]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

I remembered reading something somewhere - lol - where Martin said he had not started writing ADoS, but couldn't for the life of me remember where or when!

 

LOLOL 

I only remember because it dashed my hopes that Dream was already something more in the works, or in WORDS, not just in his mind, with it supposing to be The End, FIN  and all. 

[Bael's Bastard]

On 6/13/2018 at 2:29 PM, Megorova said:

If it's definite that Fire and Blood V1 will go on sale this October, then it also means that TWOW is also already done, and will be out after the GOT-show's finale. So it could be published either in late 2019 or in early 2020. Or not. We will know for sure, only when it will happen

GRRM has repeatedly said that when Winds is completed and delivered he will announce it. There is no basis to think that he had completed and/or delivered it, but is withholding the announcement. 

[Bael's Bastard]

19 hours ago, Megorova said:

Warning - speculations ahead.

Do you remember/know? months ago, I think, still in 2017, there was news, that some store (don't remember in what country), placed an announcement, that in (don't remember this also) either in September or October of 2018 will go on sale (this part I also don't remember) either F&B V1 or TWOW.

Basically the news was this - in late 2018 GRRM's book will go on sale. That store made that announcement months ago, and then it was immediately removed. Probably they weren't supposed to reveal that information so soon.

Now people again say, that GRRM's book will go on sale in October of 2018. What's the sorce of this information? Is it official? Is it for sure?

The thing is, if this information is a real announcement, about real date, when F&B V1 will go on sale, you know what it means? It means, that that first announcement made months ago, probably still in 2017, was real. Which also means, that booksellers in various countries already knew months ago, that F&B V1 will go on sale this October. They knew it for a long time, but weren't supposed to share this info.

If book sellers in 2017 already knew release date, then it means, that publishers already had completed manuscript in their hands. They woudn't have said release date to booksellers, if they didn't had the book in their hands. No?

So it went like this - 1. sometime in 2017 GRRM completed his work on F&B V1 and gave it to his editor/published & other team members; 2. sometime later they made an announcement about release date to booksellers in various countries; 3. one of those booksellers mistakenly shared this information with general public, even though at that point this information was supposed to be known only to insiders in book industry.

Recently GRRM made an announcement on his not-blog, that in 2018 there will be published 3 Wild Cards books.

So if we will go backwards from this point, then it goes like this - 7. Book goes on sale; 6. Official announcement from GRRM; 5. Unnoficial announcement from publishers to booksellers (because booksellers have to beforehand prepare logistics, plan and coordinate marketing in their stores, etc.); 4. Publishers coordinate things with printing companies, plan printing schedule, register ISBN and prepare other things like that, like designing book's cover, choosing paper and ink, organising schedule of translations in various languages, etc., and then only after all those plans are approved and confirmed, they share publication/sale date with booksellers; 3. After receiving completed manuscript from GRRM, after he and his editor already added all finishing touches to it, they give it to proofreaders to check for any mistakes, and then to (don't know how this profession is called in English) some sort of graphic designer that place text on pages and arrange book's layout. After this stage they will know, how long the book will be, and will be able to calculate how much ink and paper do they need, and what printing company can work with book as big as that. And then they can go to step 4.; 2. GRRM and his editor give completed manuscript to their publisher; 1. GRRM finishes writing manuscript.

So between GRRM actually completing his book, and his announcement, when the book will go on sale, more than a year can pass, or even yearS.

So basically GRRM already completed F&B and those Cards books long ago, based on that accidental announcement, still in 2017. And previously he was saying to fans, that his progress on Winds is hindered by working on F&B book and Cards. But it was last year and before that. Though now those books are already done, were completed months ago, in 2017. So in those months he had no other projects to work on, aside from TWOW. And based on what he said years ago about his progress on TWOW and ADOS manuscripts, he already wrote more than half of TWOW years ago. In span of those years he was continuing his work on TWOW and ADOS, while simultaneously working on F&B and various Cards books. And since beginning of this year, or even longer than that, he had no other projects to work on, aside from TWOW and ADOS. So it's likely that in those months, he finally had time to complete TWOW manuscript. And he already has more than just a general outline even for ADOS. How else could he have consulted show-makers how they should end GOT S8?

Though this speculations are viable, only if recent info about book going on sale in October 2018, is real. If it's real, then this release date was known since 2017. So by that point in time the book already went thru stages from completed manuscript to announcement about sales date, given to booksellers in various countries. So the manuscript itself was completed many months prior that first announcement. And if GRRM already wrote F&B in 2017, then he had lots of completely free time, to end TWOW's manuscript.

No? If you think, that my assumptions are wrong, then can you specify, why you think otherwise?

GRRM said on Not a Blog way back in July 2017 that Fire and Blood Vol 1 was likely to be released in late 2018 or early 2019. At the time, he was unsure whether Winds or Fire and Blood Vol 1 would be released first, but seemed to think that at least one Westeros book would be released in 2018, while not completely dismissing the possibility of two Westeros books beings released in 2018. We now know that Fire and Blood Vol 1 will be released first, in late November. If Winds was finished there is no chance they would put it on hold to publish Fire and Blood Vol 1.

https://grrm.livejournal.com/544709.html
 

Quote

 

"No publication date has been set yet, but it's likely that we will get the first volume of FIRE AND BLOOD out in late 2018 or early 2019. The second volume, which will carry the history from Aegon III up to Robert's Rebellion, is largely unwritten, so that one will be a few more years in coming.

And, yes, I know you all want to know about THE WINDS OF WINTER too. I've seen some truly weird reports about WOW on the internet of late, by 'journalists' who make their stories up out of whole cloth. I don't know which story is more absurd, the one that says the book is finished and I've been sitting on it for some nefarious reason, or the one that says I have no pages. Both 'reports' are equally false and equally moronic. I am still working on it, I am still months away (how many? good question), I still have good days and bad days, and that's all I care to say. Whether WINDS or the first volume of FIRE AND BLOOD will be the first to hit the bookstores is hard to say at this juncture, but I do think you will have a Westeros book from me in 2018... and who knows, maybe two. A boy can dream..."

 

 

[Bael's Bastard]

We need only go to GRRM's own statements to see how he has gone from thinking in May 2015 that he could finish it in half a year, to in July 2017 not being sure that he could finish it by late 2018.

In his Not a Blog post from January 2, 2016 (https://grrm.livejournal.com/465247.html) he recounted that:

By May 2015, his publishers had told him that for Winds to be published before the end of March 2016, they would need the completed manuscript before the end of October 2015. As of May 2015, he thought completing and delivering Winds to his editors by the end of October, five months later, "seemed very do-able."

By August 2015, his publishers told him that if he could deliver Winds by the end of 2015, they could still get Winds out before the end of March 2016.

His best guess at the time was that his publishers are capable of getting the hardcover out within three months of delivery.

Yet in his July 2017 Not a Blog post announcing the release of The Book of Swords (https://grrm.livejournal.com/544709.html), he was not certain whether Winds or Fire and Blood Vol 1, which he estimated would be released in late 2018 at the earliest, would be released first.

He went from thinking in May-August 2015 that he could plausibly finish Winds in 4-6 months, to implying in July 2017 - just under two full years later - that there was a chance it might still not be finished another year and a half later.

Then there was his comment on April 30, 2018, that some of his publishers have suggested breaking up Winds as they did with Feast and Dance, a notion he is resisting.

All of that indicates to me that he has written plenty, perhaps more than can realistically fit in one book, and perhaps done quite a bit of re-writing as well, but that at least some parts of the book are not all that close to being completed.

[Clegane'sPup]

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

We need only go to GRRM's own statements to see how he has gone from thinking in May 2015 that he could finish it in half a year, to in July 2017 not being sure that he could finish it by late 2018.

This sounds to me like Microsoft telling me my wait time is 68 minutes and five hours later I''m at 39 minutes.

edit: wanted to let you know I am 35 minutes away from a MS customer service rep. I'm thinking of Cheech & Chong. MS don't need no customer service. They like martin has the product.

[Megorova]

17 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

If Winds was finished there is no chance they would put it on hold to publish Fire and Blood Vol 1.

Yeah, right.

You know what's the best marketing strategy to get out of ASOIAF the most money? - It's to publish F&B V1, then TWOW, then F&B V2, and then ADOS.

[Bael's Bastard]

3 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Yeah, right.

You know what's the best marketing strategy to get out of ASOIAF the most money? - It's to publish F&B V1, then TWOW, then F&B V2, and then ADOS.

That would actually be a terrible marketing strategy, which would be more likely to hurt sales than increase them. Since ADWD, they have already published three novellas and one collection that only a portion of the fan base is willing to give them money for. There is no chance they would intentionally delay the one book the whole fan base has been waiting seven years to give them money for, in order to publish another book that only a portion of the fan base is willing to give them money for. That would be a good strategy to get fired, or go out of business, but they are in the business of making money. They publish these novellas and collections because they don't have the main product ready, and there is a portion of the fan base that will purchase these in the meantime. But the idea that they would intentionally delay the main product in order to publish these novellas and collection is without basis. It makes no business sense, but most importantly, it is completely at odds with what GRRM and his publishers have said. They want this book out so badly, and so quickly, that they have a plan in place to rush it out in as little as three months once it is in their hands.

[Megorova]

33 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

They publish these novellas and collections because they don't have the main product ready

Where's logic in that? What you're saying, is that GRRM has wrote three novellas, because he didn't wrote TWOW.

If instead of writing those extras, he would have completed TWOW, then they wouldn't have needed to release those three instead of TWOW. But they published those first, and he was writing those first, and it was released prior main book, that's because who will be buying those extras, after they will already have main book? - only the most dedicated fans of GRRM. Though if they will make readers starve, then they will gobble up any new work or update, made by GRRM, while they are waiting for main book.

It's like dining at restaurant, where those extras are bread sticks appetizers, and TWOW is a meat steak for main course. You'll be eating bread sticks, while waiting for main course to arrive. Though if first you will get your order, then after eating main course, you woudn't be keen on eating bread sticks. No? 

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Where's logic in that? What you're saying, is that GRRM has wrote three novellas, because he didn't wrote TWOW.

If instead of writing those extras, he would have completed TWOW, then they wouldn't have needed to release those three instead of TWOW. But they published those first, and he was writing those first, and it was released prior main book, that's because who will be buying those extras, after they will already have main book? - only the most dedicated fans of GRRM. Though if they will make readers starve, then they will gobble up any new work or update, made by GRRM, while they are waiting for main book.

It's like dining at restaurant, where those extras are bread sticks appetizers, and TWOW is a meat steak for main course. You'll be eating bread sticks, while waiting for main course to arrive. Though if first you will get your order, then after eating main course, you woudn't be keen on eating bread sticks. No? 

Nah, if that is what I was saying, you would be able to quote me saying that, instead of having to resort to trying to put words in my mouth.

What I am saying is that neither GRRM nor his publishers would sit on TWOW if it were completed, both because they have said so, and because it makes no business sense to do so.

Most of the fan base is going to buy TWOW immediately. ADWD sold 298,000 copies on its first day. GRRM and his publishers are in the business of making money, and TWOW is where the money is. If it is finished, it is being put on shelves as quickly as possible.

The novellas and collections are only of interest to a portion of the fan base, a portion which is going to get them whether they come out before the show ends or after, whether they come out before TWOW comes out or after.

As for your restaurant comparison, some like appetizers, some like dessert, some do not. In this case, only a portion of the fan base is interested in the stories outside the main series, let alone the full hardcover price tag for ten or a few tens of thousands of words. Whether they are released before or after the show or TWOW is not going to significantly change that.

The idea that the product is finished but that they would wait a year or years to release it is absurd and baseless.

[Prince Yourwetdream Aeryn]

If he wants to sell novellas he could do it betweem WoW and DoS. 

[Byfort of Corfe]

I started out as a book fan.  Having said that I will point out that I haven't bought any of the novellas or comics or histories or any of that.  And I am not sure if I will buy any more books, especially any that come out after GoT ends on HBO.  Frankly, none of the already released chapters has really interested me.  I don't like the whole Victarion/Euron child and sexual abuse line.  I have zero interest in "Harry the Heir".I just want GRRM to get on with it and he doesn't seem interested in doing that.

[Clegane'sPup]

On 6/14/2018 at 4:40 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

We need only go to GRRM's own statements to see how he has gone from thinking in May 2015 that he could finish it in half a year, to in July 2017 not being sure that he could finish it by late 2018.

It's not a major news source but the below site article gives a relatively good timeline with verifiable links.

https://www.theringer.com/game-of-thrones/2018/6/14/17462698/george-r-r-martin-winds-of-winter-timeline

I'm glad fans will be receiving supplemental Westeros material. I'm not purchasing F&B v.1. I'll check F&B v.1 out from the library. F&B v.2 or WoW I will purchase. Doesn't bother martin none.

 

[Clegane'sPup]

Due to some rather recent poster yapping and disappearances I thought I would add this:

Barnes and Noble at least gave a caveat to those individuals who want to check. Below is an excerpt from back in 2014.

Oh, and while you might see some reference to other ASoIaF novellas (specifically, Blood of the Dragon, Path of the Dragon, and Arms of the Kraken), don’t be fooled. Those aren’t new material, but excerpts from the existing novels that ran in various magazines before the books came out!

As out dated as it is, below is the link.

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/blog/where-to-find-all-those-dang-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-novellas/

Edit: you know the deal --- copy & paste. History --- can be rewritten but occasionally it is what it is.

[Quaithe from Asshai]

What makes this wait and speculations excruciating is grrm's silence. I mean he used to give updates before ADWD was released. Look at this Not a Blog post from June 2010 (https://grrm.livejournal.com/159060.html)

Quote

A DANCE WITH DRAGONS just got a little shorter.

What's happened is, I've decided to move two completed chapters, from Arianne's POV, out of the present volume and into THE WINDS OF WINTER. This is something I've gone back and forth on. Arianne wasn't originally supposed to have any viewpoint chapters in DANCE at all, but there's this... hmmm, how vague do I want be? VERY vague, I think... there's this event that would of necessity provoke a Dornish reaction. The event was originally going to occur near the end of the book, but in one of my forty-seven restructures I moved it to the late middle instead. And the timeline then required that the Dornish reaction happen in this book and not the next one, so I wrote the two Arianne chapters and was going to write a third... and a chapter from another POV that would be a necessary complement to them, and...

But no, I've restructured again, and put the original precipitating event back close to the end of the book. Which means the Arianne chapters can be returned to WINDS, where I had 'em originally. It also means that I don't have to write that third Arianne chapter and the complementary chapter from the other POV... not yet, anyway... which moves DANCE two chapters closer to completion. (The move did mean I had to revise two chapters from another POV, which took place after the event in last week's draft, but now take place before said event, but fortunately that was just a matter of tweaking a couple of lines).

I suppose this is a good news/ bad news situation.

Bad news for those who want DANCE to be really, really, really long, as long as STORMS OF SWORDS or longer. This move makes DANCE four chapters (two written, one partly written, one entirely unwritten) shorter.

But it's good news for DANCE, since I'm now two chapters (the ones I hadn't finished) closer to completion. And hey, it's even good news for WINDS OF WINTER, since I now have four chapters done for that one (an Arya, a Sansa, and two Ariannes).

This, of course, is assuming that I don't change my mind again tomorrow and put everything back the way it was last week.

I am dancing, boys and girls, I'm dancing as fast as I can. But some days it does feel as if I am dancing in circles.

I wish he gives updates like this one

[kissdbyfire]

9 minutes ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

What makes this wait and speculations excruciating is grrm's Martin silence. I mean he used to give updates before ADWD was released. Look at this Not a Blog post from June 2010 (https://grrm.livejournal.com/159060.html)

I wish he gives updates like this one

Which is exactly what he said he wouldn't do because he was way off often.

 

[Quaithe from Asshai]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

Which is exactly what he said he wouldn't do because he was way off often.

 

TBH I love reading those old updates. Looking at them you appreciate his craft. 

[Euron Lannister]

On 6/13/2018 at 6:27 PM, Prince Yourwetdream Aeryn said:

How much of WoW is completed you think?

i think most of it, maybe everything.

but george is a perfectionist when it comes to the order of chapters, so i think that one of the reasons for the delay.

or maybe he changed something at the beginning of the book and needed to change several chapters