Blackfyre Heritage Reveal Predictions

[SirRoyTheTall]

'Spoiler Warning if you haven't read all the novels and The Winds Of Winter sample chapters!

 

 

 

So most of us subscribe to the Aegon being a Blackfyre through one way or the other...but I haven't seen too much discussion about how the actual reveal will pan out. One post I read speculates that Aegon will die not knowing about his Blackfyre heritage, and while I agree that is a very George thing to do...give us all the crumbs but leave us to identify the type cake. But I also think for Dany to be the "slayer of lies", a reveal of Aegon's true parentage is necessary. Granted, it's not like we get blood tests in Westeros. But I think we will get confirmation from a knight whose honor no man could question. A knight who himself slew the last of the male Blackfyre line. Barristan Selmy. I think it will play out in a very similar fashion to when Barristan revealed his identity to Dany and outed Jorah for plotting against her in exchange for a pardon.

We know from an early draft of a Tyrion chapter for Dance that it is very likely that at some point Aegon will be given the sword Blackfyre. While for the reader this moment will more or less be the confirmation we've all been waiting for; I think all the characters around Aegon in the moment (JonCon, Arianne) and Aegon himself will be kind of aloof to what this means and will be fed some made up story about how the sword was rescued from Blackfyre clutches and hid all these years and they will buy it. Aegon because he's been told his whole life he is a true Targ, he will be blind to anything that challenges his identity as he sees it. JonCon will be blinded by his love for Rhagar, believing Aegon is Rhagar's son is the thing that's given JonCon a reason to be. He would have a hard time admitting to himself that his one shot at redemption turned out to be a trick. I think we will see the seeds of doubt in Arianne's chapter, as she is the newest to the party and the least invested in Aegon emotionally. However, I think she will fall for Aegon and believe he must be a true dragon for whatever reason. I think Aegon will successfully take King's Landing...but whether he does or not...I believe at some point his party and Dany's will meet. Barristan loved Rhagar, and was a loyal Targaryen supporter. But we know from his talks with Dany that he was not a blind loyalist. He recognized and was disturbed by the madness of Aerys, so much so that he wanted to meet and get to know Dany under an assumed identity before he would swear his sword to her service. And he speaks fondly of Rhagar, but he also discusses the full extent of his personality, not just the storied aspects. Point being, Barristan is a man that sees a spade as a spade and isn't afraid to call it. 

Barristan will see Aegon wielding the sword Blackfyre, leading the Golden Company and he's going to see what no one around Aegon wants to admit. The golden company comes to westeros for one reason only, to put a Blackfyre on the throne. A nice touch would be Barristan commenting about seeing Miles Toyne drag the sword from the battlefield after he slew Maelys or something like that. Than Dany revealing that her brother appealed to the Golden Company and how they laughed in his face...and her realizing she was sent to the Dothraki to die.

just some thoughts! I would like to see Aegon successful ride a dragon to prove his Targ heritage. Much like the supposed bastards of Rhanyera Targaryen in the Dance of the Dragons.

[zoenerys]

I think the reveal will happen when Daenerys confronts Illyrio about hiding Aegon and the fake support of Viserys. He'll tell her the truth under threat of death and she'll burn him, most likely. 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Its one thing for Daenerys to know (f)Aegon is false, its another to prove it in the eyes of the nobles and the rest of Westeros. IF somehow (f)Aegon can take the Iron Throne and become loved by the people and is seen as a savoir of the realm and Dany comes in and kills him it will look bad. Especially if (f)Aegon offers Dany a marriage and/or to co rule as equals. Daenerys has her own claim to the Throne as Aerys II passed over baby Aegon and named Viserys his heir, then once crowned, Viserys named Dany his heir. Also no one can question the legitimacy of Daenerys' identity while they can with (f)Aegon. Its why the plan for (f)Aegon is to stay unmarried until he meets Daenerys ever since team fAegon found out she acquired her dragons and armies. Obviously (f)Aegon's best hope is for a marriage with Daenerys that would solidify his claim and add her strength to his and most importantly avoid a war between them. However Daenerys is married to a Ghiscari noble and is currently missing in the Dothraki sea. Once this news reaches team (f)Aegon plans may change.

I actually think (f)Aegon will fall for Elia Sand and not Arianne. Elia Sand is basically a symbol of both of Elia Martell and Lyanna Stark. She has Elia Martell's name and most likely her looks while she has a personalty that appears to be very similar to Lyanna Stark's. Jon Con believes the Martel's should support (f)Aegon without a marriage because he's their kin. However Arianne might not believe (f)Aegon is her cousin and could hold back Dorne's support unless he marries her and makes her Queen. It could go a lot of a different ways. Though I believe the whole "Arianne seduces (f)Aegon and he marries her right away" thing is too predictable. Just my opinion.

[SirRoyTheTall]

I can get on board with Dany burning Illyrio and even Vary's while she's at it. I think the scene where she confronts him in the show will be a much bigger scene where more or less, the Blackfyre plot is revealed. 

And Ralphis is right that it matters what the nobles and lords of Westeros think. I think Aegon will take King's Landing and even muster more support from the commons. Dany is a foreigner and people will have heard all sorts of strange tales about her. And they will believe them and support Aegon...right up until the moment Barristan cries pretender. No knight is more beloved by the commons than Barristan the Bold and I believe his word will be the one that breaks the charm Aegon will use to win Westeros. 

[Lord Varys]

Blackfyre is the sword of kings. The Blackfyres had it for a time, but before that it was the sword of the Conqueror, Maegor the Cruel, Jaehaerys I, etc.

Aegon wielding it isn't proof that he is a Blackfyre descendant, just as the Golden Company fighting for him isn't proof of that.

In addition, we have no proof at this point that the Blackfyre pretenders were able to keep the sword until the days of Maelys (or the Golden Company after Maelys' death). Haegon Blackfyre gave up his sword when he was captured - which very likely was Blackfyre, which would make it not unlikely that 'the sword of kings' returned into the hands of Aerys I and was afterward wielded by Kings Maekar, Aegon V, Jaehaerys II, and Aerys II.

It may have disappeared during the Sack, and Varys/Illyrio's story would be that Varys smuggled it out of the Red Keep just as he brought Prince Aegon to Illyrio.

In that sense, it is not very likely that Blackfyre is going to be used as *proof* that Aegon is not Rhaegar's son.

Chances that this is going to *revealed* in any meaningful sense is also not very likely. There might be private conversations where people knowing the truth might confirm it, but chances are very low that this going to have a lot of impact on political realities. Nobody cared about Stannis' letters, either, so why on earth should Dany's calumnies impress the people who want to believe the story that Aegon is Rhaegar's son?

[The Sleeper]

I think him becoming dragon food will settle the issue conclusively.

[Lord Varys]

26 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

I think him becoming dragon food will settle the issue conclusively.

You mean like Alyn of Hull not claiming the dragon Seasmoke *proved* that he wasn't a Velaryon bastard?

Dragons don't prove heritages. They might be able to *prove* that a person is descended from dragonlords (or not), but they can't prove how far back such descendants are. As a Blackfyre descendant Aegon would likely have as much Valyrian blood as Daenerys.

It is pretty likely that he can become a dragonrider. And him being fed to a dragon (like Rhaenyra was) doesn't *prove* anything. Only that dragons eat pretty much anything.

[Bael's Bastard]

Has the sword Blackfyre been mentioned at all in the main series? Not that it would prevent GRRM from introducing it, but it seems a little late in the game to give it such significance in the main story when it has had little to no set up in the main story.

[The Sleeper]

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You mean like Alyn of Hull not claiming the dragon Seasmoke *proved* that he wasn't a Velaryon bastard?

Dragons don't prove heritages. They might be able to *prove* that a person is descended from dragonlords (or not), but they can't prove how far back such descendants are. As a Blackfyre descendant Aegon would likely have as much Valyrian blood as Daenerys.

It is pretty likely that he can become a dragonrider. And him being fed to a dragon (like Rhaenyra was) doesn't *prove* anything. Only that dragons eat pretty much anything.

I didn't write that it would prove anything. I wrote that it would settle the matter.

Aegon practically has "Dany's foil" written on his forehead. Dragon food is his most likely fate. That, or Euron will get his hands on him.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

I didn't write that it would prove anything. I wrote that it would settle the matter.

It would settle the matter who wins the war. But that has nothing to do with the question who he is.

2 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Aegon practically has "Dany's foil" written on his forehead. Dragon food is his most likely fate. That, or Euron will get his hands on him.

If Euron gets his hands on him, he is dead, I agree. I'm not sure he will, though, considering they are thousands of leagues apart right now, and Aegon doesn't have a fleet to challenge Euron at sea in the foreseeable future.

[Megorova]

Blackfyre-related predictions:

1. Varys is grandson of Calla Blackfyre and Aegor Bittersteel Rivers. And his mother is Jenny of Oldstones. Jenny was daughter of Rohanne Webber-Lannister and Gerold Lannister. Currently Rohanne is living under name the Ghost of High Heart. So Varys is a Spider because he is quarter Webber, and his maternal grandmother was the Red Widow (like black widow spider). Illyrio's wife Serra was Varys' little sister. So Varys and Illyrio are brothers-in-law.
2. fAegon's parents are Barristan Selmy and septa Lemore, who is actually Lady Jayne Swann. Barristan Selmy's mother is daughter of Aenys Blackfyre. So Barristan is half-Blackfyre.
3. All Blackfyres are Swanns. Johanna Swann, the Black Swan of Lys, was mother of Larra Rogare, and grandmother of Aegon IV, and thus ancestor of Targaryens and Blackfyres.

[zoenerys]

On 6/14/2018 at 4:47 PM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Its one thing for Daenerys to know (f)Aegon is false, its another to prove it in the eyes of the nobles and the rest of Westeros. IF somehow (f)Aegon can take the Iron Throne and become loved by the people and is seen as a savoir of the realm and Dany comes in and kills him it will look bad. Especially if (f)Aegon offers Dany a marriage and/or to co rule as equals. Daenerys has her own claim to the Throne as Aerys II passed over baby Aegon and named Viserys his heir, then once crowned, Viserys named Dany his heir. Also no one can question the legitimacy of Daenerys' identity while they can with (f)Aegon. Its why the plan for (f)Aegon is to stay unmarried until he meets Daenerys ever since team fAegon found out she acquired her dragons and armies. Obviously (f)Aegon's best hope is for a marriage with Daenerys that would solidify his claim and add her strength to his and most importantly avoid a war between them. However Daenerys is married to a Ghiscari noble and is currently missing in the Dothraki sea. Once this news reaches team (f)Aegon plans may change.

I actually think (f)Aegon will fall for Elia Sand and not Arianne. Elia Sand is basically a symbol of both of Elia Martell and Lyanna Stark. She has Elia Martell's name and most likely her looks while she has a personalty that appears to be very similar to Lyanna Stark's. Jon Con believes the Martel's should support (f)Aegon without a marriage because he's their kin. However Arianne might not believe (f)Aegon is her cousin and could hold back Dorne's support unless he marries her and makes her Queen. It could go a lot of a different ways. Though I believe the whole "Arianne seduces (f)Aegon and he marries her right away" thing is too predictable. Just my opinion.

Just because it would look bad doesn't make it unlikely. Dragons are not diplomats. 

 No way is Daenerys going to sit idly by and accept another Targaryen claimant under tutelage of Illyrio. Remember he promised Viserys the throne. The presence of Aegon is proof that he lied to them the entire time. Not only that but I believe Tyrion will be in her ear with his doubts as well. Tyrion's bloodlust should not be underestimated. Bringing her the news of not only Aegon's existence but Illyrio's betrayal will earn him her trust imo and he'll persuade her to confront Illyrio and demand answers. After she gets the truth all bets are off. 

I have a feeling that this will be a new low for Dany. She'll only be brought back up again during the fight with The Others. 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

3 hours ago, zoenerys said:

Just because it would look bad doesn't make it unlikely. Dragons are not diplomats. 

 

Perhaps. I never said it was likely or unlikely though, just that it would look bad if she killed him IF he became loved by the people and they believed his identity to be true.

3 hours ago, zoenerys said:

 No way is Daenerys going to sit idly by and accept another Targaryen claimant under tutelage of Illyrio. Remember he promised Viserys the throne. The presence of Aegon is proof that he lied to them the entire time. Not only that but I believe Tyrion will be in her ear with his doubts as well. Tyrion's bloodlust should not be underestimated. Bringing her the news of not only Aegon's existence but Illyrio's betrayal will earn him her trust imo and he'll persuade her to confront Illyrio and demand answers. After she gets the truth all bets are off. 

I wasn't really looking at it through Daenerys POV. I was more or less looking at it through team (f)Aegon's and the people of Westeros POV because team (f)Aegon knows Daenerys exists while she doesn't know about him yet. So we can only speculate on how she will react to it. Tyrion doesn't know whether (f)Aegon is real or an imposter but he did risk his life to protect him on the ship. How Tyrion will use the fAegon information is still up in the air as he has yet to meet Daenerys. He could decide that a marriage and/or alliance between Dany and fAegon would be in his best interest as it would mean they could concentrate on Cersei without fighting and weakening each other if Cersei is still a threat. Also, as I mentioned, Tyrion did save fAegon from the stone men so him becoming Dany's Queen could bode well for him in the future. As opposed to her taking a king who might hate Tyrion. 

As far as Illyrio is concerned he could claim he was too afraid Viserys would harm Aegon if he knew he existed. If Daenerys calls BS on it (f)Aegon himself could still claim he wanted to meet Daenerys and Viserys but his protectors wouldn't let him as they feared what Viserys would do if they knew of him and his claim existed. Or that his protectors didn't think it was wise to keep all the Targaryens in one place as it would be harder for assassins to end their line if they were separated. There is no proof that fAegon himself was involved in Illryio's deceptions and he could also take that stance. Perhaps (f)Aegon could even claim he did not even know his own identity until recently for his own protection. Illyrio being the Ned Stark to (f)Aegon's Jon Snow.

Varys has been doing a lot of PR work for if/when (f)Aegon becomes king. I'm sure he'll do even more in the future now that (f)Aegon has landed and Westeros becomes aware that he is there. From the outside looking in the nobles and lords might think the obvious solution involving (f)AEgon and Dany would be a marriage where they'd be co rulers. I believe if a great council was called that's what they'd suggest if they are both unmarried.

[FictionIsntReal]

4 hours ago, zoenerys said:

No way is Daenerys going to sit idly by and accept another Targaryen claimant under tutelage of Illyrio. Remember he promised Viserys the throne. The presence of Aegon is proof that he lied to them the entire time.

Viserys outranks Aegon: he was declared Aerys heir while Aerys lived, and his mother crowned him king after Aerys died. If Illyrio did more to kill Viserys in order to put his own candidate on the throne, Daenerys might have reason to accuse him of treachery, but she knows quite well that Viserys got himself killed. And as Belwas noted, Illyrio didn't seem happy about losing Viserys quite that early.

1 hour ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

As far as Illyrio is concerned he could claim he was too afraid Viserys would harm Aegon if he knew he existed. If Daenerys calls BS on it (f)Aegon himself could still claim he wanted to meet Daenerys and Viserys but his protectors wouldn't let him as they feared what Viserys would do if they knew of him and his claim existed. Or that his protectors didn't think it was wise to keep all the Targaryens in one place as it would be harder for assassins to end their line if they were separated.

Rather than from Viserys*, the more obvious motive is to protect Aegon from the Baratheon regime. They don't know he's alive, and they (eventually) sent an assassin after the known Targaryens. Daenerys might be unhappy that the survival of her nephew was hidden from her, but it's relatively understandable under the circumstances.

*As noted earlier, Viserys outranks Aegon for the crown, so he's not going to harm him out of dynastic ambition. Aegon is also younger, so even if that weren't the case he would have required a regent if he'd grown up alongside Aerys' children. Viserys also wouldn't be the same if he didn't grow up thinking of himself as the rightful king of Westeros.

[Lysono]

I think Young Griff will slowly start to suspect it himself and it might happen after he takes Storm´s End and wins the battle against the Tyrell army - he will be very likely given the Blackfyre sword, the friends from the Reach - strong Blackfyre supporters will start popping up after those years.

Let´s not forget that his army members coming from exiled noble houses will want their castles back. I can imagine situations where they are all sitting around the fire, drinking, celebrating and old stories of handsome Daemon Blackfyre will circulate again, perhaps a well hidden Blackfyre flag will be digged out, and even young Aegon will slowly get it. Except Jon of course, who will see more and more hints but still refuse to see the plain truth. There was something in the original writing of GRRM, when Ilyrio Mopatis was discussing the sword - that there is something the lad must know. What is the point of the whole Blackfyre restoration if Aegon would be oblivious to it?

I can also imagine how he would quite likely accept it - do you want to be the blood of the great warrior Daemon, who wielded Blackfyre or a son of Rhaegar - a cheater who left him and his alleged mother and went fucking a teenage Stark girl in a tower, leaving the kingdom in despair? Depends how you present it to the young lad - with the rumour of Daeron not being a legitimate son of Aegon IV - this is where the Targaryen line went the wrong way. He might feel bad for Jon Connington mega duped but hey, it´s not his fault, is it? I think when Jon finally realises the truth, he will lose it completely. He could even attempt to kill Aegon before he kills himself. Anyways, my favourite chapter would be Aegon´s coronation with all the flags reversed and him being announced as Aegon I Blackfyre, The First of His Name. At that point, no one would really care - dragon is a dragon :))

[ApostolinO]

On 6/14/2018 at 9:59 PM, SirRoyTheTall said:

    We know from an early draft of a Tyrion chapter for Dance that it is very likely that at some point Aegon will be given the sword Blackfyre.

 

On 6/14/2018 at 10:11 PM, zoenerys said:

I think the reveal will happen when Daenerys confronts Illyrio about hiding Aegon and the fake support of Viserys. He'll tell her the truth under threat of death and she'll burn him, most likely. 

 

Way off topic, but this could be the sword she promised Jorah back in AGOT.

[Pikachu101]

On 6/14/2018 at 9:47 PM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Its one thing for Daenerys to know (f)Aegon is false, its another to prove it in the eyes of the nobles and the rest of Westeros.

Regardless of whether or not he's fake (f)Aegon can prove he's Rhaegar and Elia's son through Jon Connington and the Martells.

The real question is who will support him?

• The North: they want a Stark king
• The Vale: if Sansa does marry Harry Littlefinger's hoping they'll crown her Queen in the North
• The Reach: right now Margaery is Tommen's queen so I doubt they'd swap allegiances, unless of course Tommen has an "accident" thus leaving Margaery free to become Aegon's queen
• The Westerlands: their king is Tommen, they have no reason to support Aegon
• The Riverlands: Littlefinger is their liege lord and he's backing Sansa, the Freys are dependent on the Lannisters, and the rest of the bannerman support House Stark
• The Stormlands: he's seized Storm's End but they're still Stannis' men
• The Iron Islands: just like the North they've claimed independence so won't kneel to a Targaryen
• Dorne: they're the only kingdom Connington can vouch on for support

On 6/16/2018 at 3:35 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

Viserys outranks Aegon for the crown

He doesn't, the children of the eldest son outrank his younger brother which is why George is William's heir not of Harry

[FictionIsntReal]

7 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

He doesn't, the children of the eldest son outrank his younger brother which is why George is William's heir not of Harry

Aerys explicitly passed over Aegon and designated Viserys to be his heir, and he was crowned after Aerys died. There was longstanding precedent that the king can name an heir, although there was also precedent that kingship does not pass through the female line (Robert Baratheon's reign is contrary to that rule) and the former precedent lost out against the latter in the Dance of the Dragons. Viserys being a male means the former precedent can stand (Daenerys is not so lucky). The Great Council of 233 passed over Aerion Brightflame's son Maegor (who would normally be the rightful heir) in part because he was an infant, and this precedent would also support Viserys over Aegon.

 

As for which regions would support which person, Aegon has declared himself before Sansa has, so for now the Vale might be on his side. Much of the Stormlands declined to support Stannis when Renly was alive (though Stannis legally came first), only switching sides after Renly died. Stannis was not able to count on the support of all of them after the Battle of Blackwater, as many bent to knee to Joffrey. Stannis is far from the Stormlands, so some of them may support Aegon in Stannis' absence. The Tyrells will continue to support Tommen as long as they have that marital alliance, but not everyone in the Reach will. You also left out the Crownlands, and in King's Landing in particular the High Sparrow is likely to support Aegon. The suspicion that Tommen was a bastard born of incest kept the Sparrow from anointing him king until Cersei let him re-arm the faith. With Cersei now in disgrace, he may turn on her offspring in favor of a boy raised in part by a Septa.

[Lord Varys]

The Targaryens are the kings of them all. And they know that. Most of the secessionists and rebels think they can/should do what they do (and get away with it) because the dragons are gone.

Once the dragons are back the Northmen and Rivermen will fall back in line, or at least not actively oppose their rightful rulers.

[Lord Lannister]

I don't think it will ever be spelled out and explicitly stated Aegon is a Blackfire or legit. The characters and readers both will draw their conclusions and the story will happen as it does. Likely this debate will still be happening even after Dream is published.