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No Rebellion, Rheagar married with Elia, Robert with Lyana and Brandon with Cat


Kandrax

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5 hours ago, Kandrax said:

To whom would Cersei be married? Willas or Edmure?

Jaime believes Tywin summoned Cersei to court when she was twelve (278-279) hoping to make her a royal marriage, either waiting for Viserys to mature, or perhaps for Rhaegar's wife Elia to die.

It's not clear how long Tywin would have waited before he gave up on wedding Cersei to a Targaryen prince, or what his plans would have become had he determined it would never happen.

In general, there were still a lot of unmarried men old enough to wed right then if Tywin had decided to look outside the royal family: Oberyn Martell, Stannis Baratheon, Jon Arryn, Eddard Stark, etc.

Just a matter of what his big picture strategy would have been had he finally given up on a royal marriage.

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4 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Jaime believes Tywin summoned Cersei to court when she was twelve (278-279) hoping to make her a royal marriage, either waiting for Viserys to mature, or perhaps for Rhaegar's wife Elia to die.

It's not clear how long Tywin would have waited before he gave up on wedding Cersei to a Targaryen prince, or what his plans would have become had he determined it would never happen.

If Aerys didn't want Rhaegar to marry Cersie, why would Tywin believe that he could arrange the marriage with Viserys

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39 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

If Aerys didn't want Rhaegar to marry Cersie, why would Tywin believe that he could arrange the marriage with Viserys

I can only speculate.

Perhaps Tywin thought he could get Aerys to accept Cersei for a son that was lower down in the succession.

Or perhaps Tywin was privy or party to Rhaegar's intentions "long ago" to call a council and make changes, which might have included restricting or deposing Aerys, and assuming the responsibilities of rule in his place, and thought he could get Rhaegar to agree to a match for Viserys.

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Maybe he was hoping Rhaegar would set Elia aside in favour of Cersei, because she couldn't give him another child, or hoped Elia would die of some sickness. Waiting for Viserys to come of age would have taken too long I think. He is 10 years younger than Cersei, so when he's 16 she would already be 26…

Willas might have been the best option, as the age gap is somewhat smaller (though we don't know his exact birth year I think).

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14 hours ago, Kandrax said:

To whom would Cersei be married? Willas or Edmure?

Don't forget Stannis. We don't know when the Stannis/Selyse marriage was arranged, so it is possible this match would be considered. Or even the young Renly. Ned and Benjen are certainly possible. My first guess, however is Elbert Arryn. He is the heir to the Vale, and that would be the best anti-Targaryen match.

The usually marriage for Cersei would be to one of Tywin's bannermen. So this discussion depends on if Tywin is committed to the STAB conspiracy or he is still trying to somehow manage a Targaryen marriage. Would Tywin use the Lannister sycophant Pycelle to do away with Elia? It would open up the possibility of a Rhaegar union with Cersei, but Tywin would still have to figure out how to do away with Aerys and Rhaegar - and possibly Aegon. Once he murders Elia it isn't realistic to view that secret never being discovered. 

If Tywin has really gone over to the STAB conspiracy as it appears he is doing with the Jaime/Lysa marriage, then it makes sense for him to consider marriage into one of the other Great Houses. As I said above Elbert Arryn makes the most sense, but the others are possible. I think the age difference between most of the other candidates make them less likely.

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4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

The usually marriage for Cersei would be to one of Tywin's bannermen. So this discussion depends on if Tywin is committed to the STAB conspiracy or he is still trying to somehow manage a Targaryen marriage. Would Tywin use the Lannister sycophant Pycelle to do away with Elia? It would open up the possibility of a Rhaegar union with Cersei, but Tywin would still have to figure out how to do away with Aerys and Rhaegar - and possibly Aegon. Once he murders Elia it isn't realistic to view that secret never being discovered.

Pycelle was Grand Maester in King's Landing, but that doesn't make him Elia's maester. The crown prince has Dragonstone, so it would be up to someone there. Elia only got brought to King's Landing because Aerys wanted to use her as a hostage against the Dornish during Robert's Rebellion.

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3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Pycelle was Grand Maester in King's Landing, but that doesn't make him Elia's maester. The crown prince has Dragonstone, so it would be up to someone there. Elia only got brought to King's Landing because Aerys wanted to use her as a hostage against the Dornish during Robert's Rebellion.

Very true. Unfortunately, the fact that Elia has to respond to Aerys's summons also means she can be brought back to King's Landing for other purposes. Also unfortunately, we don't know who was the maester on Dragonstone. We only know that Cressen comes there with Stannis.My point is less that Pycelle is necessary to push a sickly Elia into the grave, but that such a scheme would fit into Tywin's plans for Cersei. Or at least the plans he once had.

To the OP's question, the answer is there are lots of candidates, but the time in we are talking about is afterTywin breaks with Aerys and resigns his office as Hand over Jaime's appointment to the Kingsguard. Correct me if I'm wrong here @Kandrax. It likely eliminates the possibility of a Cersei marriage with Rhaegar or Viserys. The fact Tywin had gone so far in arranging a marriage between Jaime and Lysa also is a declaration of sorts of where his loyalties lay. The question becomes, is Aerys's gambit with Jaime and his holding of him as a de facto hostage stop Tywin from marrying Cersei into the STAB alliance? If not, I think Elbert Arryn the best candidate, but the thought of a Ned/Cersei or a Stannis/Cersei marriage makes me cringe just thinking about it. My estimation of Tywin tells me he would do just about anything to get payback against Aerys. 

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I think we can safely rule out Ned, Stannis or any other second son.  Remember, how irate a young Tywin was when Tytos agreed to marry Genna to Emmon Frey?  I doubt Tywin mellowed with age on his idea of a proper marriage for a Lannister of Casterly Rock.

We know he hoped to marry Cersei to Rhaeghar, but failing that, would Tywin prefer a marriage to Visery even though he's the second son, or would he want his daughter to marry a Great Lord or one of his own more powerful bannermen or their heir?

If Tywin goes outside the Westerlands or the Royal Family, that would leave Edmure Tully, Wyllis Tyrell,  or Jon or Elbert Arryn.

If I had to guess, I'd go with Edmure given the attempt to wed Jaime to Lyssa.

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I don't think Ned would really be a contender unless: 

Jaime still joined the the King's Guard meaning that Tyrion stands to inherit the Rock. I don't see how Tywin could persuade Aerys to release Jaime (fantastic way to humiliate the Hand while keeping a stranglehold on him). So Tywin needs a new heir from himself or Cersei to put ahead of Tyrion.

Ned comes from a family as prestigious as the Lannisters, was warded in the south and is a second son. In this scenario that would be helpful because Ned could move to the Rock with the understanding that upon Tywin's death the Rock would go to Ned and Cersei's first male child. That way Tywin gets a new heir he can have a hand in rasing without having to remarry himself.

Marrying into a local House for the purpose of bypassing Tyrion could create trouble down the line if that House decided that they not Lannisters should hold the Rock. Ned would lack the local support needed attempt something like that.

Admittedly all of this is a long shot but I have always found the idea of Ned/Cersei entertaining.

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On 6/15/2018 at 2:22 PM, Chris Mormont said:

If Aerys didn't want Rhaegar to marry Cersie, why would Tywin believe that he could arrange the marriage with Viserys

Excellent observation.  Aerys preferred Viserys to Rhaegar and made the younger son heir to the throne.  He would not go for this match with Cersei.  That would make the Lannisters too powerful.  Tywin would want to build peace with the Greyjoys to assure the security of Lannisport.  Cersei to one of the younger Greyjoys.

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1 hour ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Tywin would want to build peace with the Greyjoys to assure the security of Lannisport.  Cersei to one of the younger Greyjoys.

Where the Greyjoys considered that much of a threat back before the Greyjoy Rebellion? They always came of as a bottom tier power to me.

A problem sure but not something you'd give up your only daughter to a younger son to apeace.

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Is Jaime still on the Kingsguard?

If yes, then Tyrion is the heir, Tywin and Cersei would never acept that. They would find a way to pull Tyrion out of the sucession line. With Tyrion out Cersei is the next heir and Lancel after her.

Marriage between cousins are not out of the ordinary in Westeros. Tywin already considers the Lannister a tier above everyone else, Marrying Cersei to Lancel would also avoid a potential sucession crises, uniffying 2 branchs of the Lannister family and they would still have Martyn and Willem to marry to their bannerman.

If Jaime is out of the KG and is the heir, then Cersei would be married off to one of the great houses. Elbert Arryn would be my first bet.

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8 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

If yes, then Tyrion is the heir, Tywin and Cersei would never acept that. They would find a way to pull Tyrion out of the sucession line.

Yup, you are right about that.

9 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Marriage between cousins are not out of the ordinary in Westeros. Tywin already considers the Lannister a tier above everyone else, Marrying Cersei to Lancel would also avoid a potential sucession crises,

Assuming that all this around 282 AC Lancer would be a newborn soooo... gonna say a nope on Lancel. Sure some other branch of House Lannister but the benefit seems small compared to reinforcing the loyalty of a bannerman or securing a Great House alliance.

12 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Elbert Arryn would be my first bet.

Joining the Tully-Stark-Baratheon extended family powerblock by Jaime taking Lysa as bride and Cersei marrying Elbert would create a immensely strong faction in Westerosi politics, if they could cooperate. 

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I'd say Willas. If the two richest Kingdoms in the realm united through marriage then the Targaryens would be foolish not to marry the heir to one of their daughters. Then, once Aerys II is gone, I could see Tywin leaning on Rhaegar to let Jaime out of the Kingsguard. On the basis that Jaime was too scared to refuse Aerys II and feared Aerys II would burn him alive if he declined the KG spot. Then Tywin gets Jaime back at the Rock to marry Lysa Tully. 

 

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2 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Assuming that all this around 282 AC Lancer would be a newborn soooo... gonna say a nope on Lancel. Sure some other branch of House Lannister but the benefit seems small compared to reinforcing the loyalty of a bannerman or securing a Great House alliance.

2 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I was just thinking that would be a good way to avoid a potential sucession crisis.

Makes no sense to marry another Lannister that is very far away in the line. In that case I agree with you that marrying a bannerman would be better.

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