Renly was a dummy

[Peach King]

6 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

The show. That’s where he was held up as a paragon of virtue. And the Lyanna lookalike would have fallen apart anyway.

Talking about the books though. 

Maybe i should accept the thread title. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

GRRM makes mention of it to prove a point. "Knights of summer". "Boys playing at war". The way he doesn't want to strike before dawn because it'll be unchivalrous. How his battle plan is simply sending Loras in a charge against the rising sun. All of it is to strike home that Renly is young and a glory seeker. To say he was just protecting himself is dishonest. 

Those quotes are made by someone else (Catelyn). Frankly he had basically no chance of losing that battle. Why complicate things? Attacking in darkness, proposed Mathis and Tarly, is plenty dangerous as well. He was expecting half of Stannis' army to defect and the other half swept away. No one else expects any different.

Never said he was just protecting himself. It's his primary motivation. He clearly enjoys pomp and ceremony but nothing in his overall strategy to become king detracts from the fact he did it to survive Robert's heirs -- well specifically Joffrey -- and Cersei's regency.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

I am giving you reasons why he might not have told his brothers. You're simply saying - he would have if he knew. OK but why? When has Renly ever been held up as some paragon of human virtue? 

You don't have to be a paragon of virtue to want to rid yourself of someone trying to kill you. I feel like it's pretty common sense and normal to want to do that.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

So let's all agree that Renly is really stupid. Divorce only happened like 4 times in the past and it caused trouble a lot of those times. And his plan is simply.... Lyanna look-alike? 

Well no. It was one plan. His plan to work with Ned to seize the royal children to make sure Cersei wouldn't imprison/kill them seemed rather prescient, now didn't it?

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Yeah but Renly moved against her first, so she absolutely deserves to retaliate. 

Welllllll, no. She had committed treason dozens, hundreds (thousands) of times in the case that Stannis wanted to press. Retaliating against Renly by trying to kill or imprison him for legal activities is not kosher. Remember, she was worried about being set aside, not thrown in jail or killed. 

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

What would Renly have done differently if he knew though

He would have worked with Stannis and Jon Arryn to expose the truth about Cersei and Jaime, since that would have been easier than proving Joff/Myrcella/Tommen were illegitimate. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Those quotes are made by someone else (Catelyn). Frankly he had basically no chance of losing that battle. Why complicate things? Attacking in darkness, proposed Mathis and Tarly, is plenty dangerous as well. He was expecting half of Stannis' army to defect and the other half swept away. No one else expects any different.

It should be noted Catelyn's words shouldn't be taken as gospel; she is after all a lady, as such she wouldn't have studied strategy, and war as a lordling would when she was brought. 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

11 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

It should be noted Catelyn's words shouldn't be taken as gospel; she is after all a lady, as such she wouldn't have studied strategy, and war as a lordling would when she was brought. 

 

Catelyn called them "knights of summer" and et al. If she criticized the strategies employed by Renly, it was about politics versus battle. Renly's vassals were the ones criticizing the charge at daybreak.

[GallowsKnight]

Robert let the Lannisters infiltrate the court, whilst he otherwise ignored, openly disliked and antagonized them. He drove a wedge between what could have been a powerful and fruitful union, letting a situation arise where his heir was untrue. I don't think there is an issue if Renly lets the Tyrells have lots of power, as long as they all remain close allies and family. He and Loras love each other. He will be married to Margeary, their legitimate children will rule the Seven kingdom. I don't think it's a problem.

I do think he squandered his excellent position. He starts with the most resources, the most possible friends to make, and of course the largest army. Sure he can't anticipate a shadow assassin but unexpected things happen in war all the time. What happens if the Iron Islands and Vale back Robb and suddenly they don't want anything to do with the Iron Throne anymore? He loses more than half his Kingdom. 

If I was Renly I would have sent 20,000 men under Alester Florent (get him away from Stannis) and maybe Garlan Tyrell north up the Ocean Road to attack the Westerlands. I would have sent another 20,000 under Bryce Caron and Mathis Rowan along the Roseroad to besiege Kingslanding. I would send Randyl Tarly with another 20,000 up the Gold road to intercept and pressure Tywin Lannister. That still leaves myself with 20,000 and Loras Tyrell, to wait and see where it's best for me to move. Reinforce the Stormlands against Stannis? Protect against Dorne if they attack? Or to join up with my forces in the Westerlands, Riverlands and Crownsland depending on what happens there.

All the meanwhile making politcal advances to all the possible factions. Dorne. Iron Islands. the Vale. Robb. Heck even Stannis. Not waiting to be recognized as King. Showing them my powers and bargaining to bring them back into the fold.

[Peach King]

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Those quotes are made by someone else (Catelyn). Frankly he had basically no chance of losing that battle. Why complicate things? Attacking in darkness, proposed Mathis and Tarly, is plenty dangerous as well. He was expecting half of Stannis' army to defect and the other half swept away. No one else expects any different.

Never said he was just protecting himself. It's his primary motivation. He clearly enjoys pomp and ceremony but nothing in his overall strategy to become king detracts from the fact he did it to survive Robert's heirs -- well specifically Joffrey -- and Cersei's regency.

You don't have to be a paragon of virtue to want to rid yourself of someone trying to kill you. I feel like it's pretty common sense and normal to want to do that.

Well no. It was one plan. His plan to work with Ned to seize the royal children to make sure Cersei wouldn't imprison/kill them seemed rather prescient, now didn't it?

Welllllll, no. She had committed treason dozens, hundreds (thousands) of times in the case that Stannis wanted to press. Retaliating against Renly by trying to kill or imprison him for legal activities is not kosher. Remember, she was worried about being set aside, not thrown in jail or killed. 

He would have worked with Stannis and Jon Arryn to expose the truth about Cersei and Jaime, since that would have been easier than proving Joff/Myrcella/Tommen were illegitimate. 

I'm not saying he's incompetent. Just that all those actions are linked to wanting glory/fame which is why he doesn't want to "cheat" since that would look bad in the history books. 

Sure it's a factor, but then why does he take so long in getting to King's Landing? He sure took his sweet time. 

Already addressed this. At that point of time it was not in Renly's interests to reveal that he knew all along to Ned. Ned wouldn't trust him. It would be very convenient if suddenly the Lannister children were bastards when Stannis was absent and Renly was the next heir claimant. So Renly doesn't bring it up. 

If Renly knew of the incest, this could have been his plan: Make Ned seize Cersei's kids so he takes the brunt of Tywin and Cersei's wrath, in the meanwhile prepare his own little coup. Littlefinger almost describes the same scenario to Ned - reveal the incest, eliminate Stannis, Renly on throne. But Ned doesn't take his offer so Renly has no choice but to flee. Or it could even be declaring himself king was his third choice and he would be fine with Ned holding power for the time being. The thing is he couldn't have just told Ned. 

The plan just had 0 chance of succeeding. 

This could just be because she didn't know the full extent of Renly's plans. Or even that she knew at all, she is obsessed with the prophecy after all. Renly only has to think she knows, and that could be why he is so fearful for his life. 

Edric was living with him, that's more than enough proof. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

56 minutes ago, Peach King said:

 

Already addressed this. At that point of time it was not in Renly's interests to reveal that he knew all along to Ned. Ned wouldn't trust him. It would be very convenient if suddenly the Lannister children were bastards when Stannis was absent and Renly was the next heir claimant. So Renly doesn't bring it up. 

He's trying to get Ned on his side-even if it's a long shot, and Ned simply brushes him off he'd be in no worse position. Hell, just a short-while ago Ned was injured by Jaimie Lanister and was willingly to sighn the death warrant for Gregore Cleagane-he is clearly not to their liking and people usually want the worst accusations a against their enemies to be true.  Without the claim of twincest he already looks self-serving.

56 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Sure it's a factor, but then why does he take so long in getting to King's Landing? He sure took his sweet time. 

Why exactly does he have to rush to KL? His rivals are beating eachother bloody already, and at the moment he had the strongest army; and with highgarden having cut off the food to KL, he could reasonably expect the city to be so starved riots would break out(which we see early on in the book), and the people to grow more famished and less likely to put up that much resistance for when he does finally come to take the city; meanwhile he's keeping his men healthy, fed, and in high spirits (hench the games). 

 

56 minutes ago, Peach King said:

This could just be because she didn't know the full extent of Renly's plans. Or even that she knew at all, she is obsessed with the prophecy after all. Renly only has to think she knows, and that could be why he is so fearful for his life. 

If Cersi had been obsessed with the propecy early in the story she would have killed Tyrion when he came back to KL in ACOK. Its  only after Tyrion has really pushed her (sending away/imprisoning her allies, poisoning her, kidnapping her son, and marrying off her daughter without her consent as well keep her utterly in the dark on his stratetegy to defend KL), does she even try striking at him, through taking who she thought was his lover. She did begin to get obsessed with it after Tyrion seemingly murdered her firstborn.

56 minutes ago, Peach King said:

f Renly knew of the incest, this could have been his plan: Make Ned seize Cersei's kids so he takes the brunt of Tywin and Cersei's wrath, in the meanwhile prepare his own little coup. Littlefinger almost describes the same scenario to Ned

Cersi no doubt would see Renly's fingers in this anyway, his little plan to replace her would mark him as an enemy always, Renly would be an utter fool to not realize this and thus not fear for his safety. It doesn't matter the likelyhood of the plan succeeding it matters that he tried to replace her.

56 minutes ago, Peach King said:

- reveal the incest, eliminate Stannis, Renly on thron

Putting Renly on the throne was the solution for if Joffery proved himself unfit to be king.

56 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Edric was living with him, that's more than enough proof.

Yes Edric looks like Robert. His father. The children of Cersi look like their mother. Big whoop whoop most people would say to that alone. Jon looked more like Ned than most of his other children; should Ned have feared he'd been cuckholded by Catelyn? Should Rheagar feared he'd been cuckholded by Ellia since the girl she bore didn't look like him?  Hell even if  Renly thought Eddric was strong evidence of Cersi's treason, he would  brought the boy up to KL to show Robert as proof of him being cuckholded by his wife's twin; honestly, after havingRenly saved his brother from having throne slipped to the hands of an abomination, Robert would be grateful, and his opinion on who should be Robert's next bride.

 

[Peach King]

40 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

He's trying to get Ned on his side-even if it's a long shot, and Ned simply brushes him off he'd be in no worse position. Hell, just a short-while ago Ned was injured by Jaimie Lanister and was willingly to sighn the death warrant for Gregore Cleagane-he is clearly not to their liking and people usually want the worst accusations a against their enemies to be true.  Without the claim of twincest he already looks self-serving.

Why exactly does he have to rush to KL? His rivals are beating eachother bloody already, and at the moment he had the strongest army; and with highgarden having cut off the food to KL, he could reasonably expect the city to be so starved riots would break out(which we see early on in the book), and the people to grow more famished and less likely to put up that much resistance for when he does finally come to take the city; meanwhile he's keeping his men healthy, fed, and in high spirits (hench the games). 

 

If Cersi had been obsessed with the propecy early in the story she would have killed Tyrion when he came back to KL in ACOK. Its  only after Tyrion has really pushed her (sending away/imprisoning her allies, poisoning her, kidnapping her son, and marrying off her daughter without her consent as well keep her utterly in the dark on his stratetegy to defend KL), does she even try striking at him, through taking who she thought was his lover. She did begin to get obsessed with it after Tyrion seemingly murdered her firstborn.

Cersi no doubt would see Renly's fingers in this anyway, his little plan to replace her would mark him as an enemy always, Renly would be an utter fool to not realize this and thus not fear for his safety. It doesn't matter the likelyhood of the plan succeeding it matters that he tried to replace her.

Putting Renly on the throne was the solution for if Joffery proved himself unfit to be king.

Yes Edric looks like Robert. His father. The children of Cersi look like their mother. Big whoop whoop most people would say to that alone. Jon looked more like Ned than most of his other children; should Ned have feared he'd been cuckholded by Catelyn? Should Rheagar feared he'd been cuckholded by Ellia since the girl she bore didn't look like him?  Hell even if  Renly thought Eddric was strong evidence of Cersi's treason, he would  brought the boy up to KL to show Robert as proof of him being cuckholded by his wife's twin; honestly, after havingRenly saved his brother from having throne slipped to the hands of an abomination, Robert would be grateful, and his opinion on who should be Robert's next bride.

 

No he does not look self serving - Ned was against the plan because he did not want to drag frightened children from their beds in the night, not because it looked like Renly was trying to take advantage of the situation to take power. Which he would assume is the case if Renly told him of the incest. It doesn't matter if he hates the Lannisters, Ned is an honourable man and he does not really trust Renly either. 

I'm just saying if he's so motivated because of his hatred for Lannisters he would have rushed to KL to put their heads upon spikes. But he instead seems to be having a lot of fun. 

Concede with you on the prophecy point but - Why doesn't Cersei mention Renly then? She makes a vague sentence about being set aside, that doesn't mean she's aware of Renly's plans. She seems to be bemoaning her husband's behaviour, not aware of some conspiracy surrounding her. And why is Renly so sure Cersei would kill him, does he think she's that much of a psychopath? On the other hand if Cersei had her life in danger because of Renly she would have a very good reason to kill him. 

I'm saying Renly might have had the same idea as Littlefinger - to put himself on the throne. I'm not saying he would follow Littlefinger's plan to a T. 

Stannis seemed to think he was enough proof. And no he would not, he would not have any guarantee Robert would choose Margaery so he needed her to look like the best candidate first - hence asking Ned if she looked like Lyanna. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

5 hours ago, Peach King said:

No he does not look self serving - Ned was against the plan because he did not want to drag Robert's children from their beds in the night, not because it looked like Renly was trying to take advantage of the situation to take power. Which he would assume is the case if Renly told him of the incest. It doesn't matter if he hates the Lannisters, Ned is an honourable man and he does not really trust Renly either. 

Yes he does. His reasoning for why his plan is needed is to protect their necks. It does matter that Ned hates the lanister-when a person hates someone you're more likely for them to believe x bad thing about them than if than if that person loved someone. With the excuse of twincest the honorble Ned has reason to at least act. Whether to save his own ass or to gain power Renly still looks self-serving because it's clear he's doing all this for his benifit-which is by definition self-serving https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/self-serving

 

5 hours ago, Peach King said:

I'm just saying if he's so motivated because of his hatred for Lannisters he would have rushed to KL to put their heads upon spikes. But he instead seems to be having a lot of fun. 

No one said Renly hated them. Hell even Renly doesn't say he's rebeling out of some hatred to the lanisters. The tournaments keep his men in high spirits. His rivals are destroying each other. KL is starving due to his alliance with the Tyrells. Him not rushing into battle isn't due to lazyness it is clearly calculated for him and his followers to come out of this the least hurt by the war by a long shot. 

5 hours ago, Peach King said:

Why doesn't Cersei mention Renly then? She makes a vague sentence about being set aside, that doesn't mean she's aware of Renly's plans. She seems to be bemoaning her husband's behaviour, not aware of some conspiracy surrounding her. And why is Renly so sure Cersei would kill him, does he think she's that much of a psychopath? On the other hand if Cersei had her life in danger because of Renly she would have a very good reason to kill

Considering even Stannis knew about the plan its clear it wasn't that big of secret. Do only pure Psychopaths want revenge or to kill people who'd tried take everything that makes up their very being? To marry  a man who brings honour to their is the epitome of what noblewoman are trained since the time they could learn; Renly sought to take that away from her, and it's  fair to think Mace and Renly's ideal ending to the plan is that  Robert put her aside and name the children of Margary his heirs. 

Renly would be a fool to think most woman in Cersi's position and displayed temperament even at this point would so easily and not seek to retribution against him for trying to rob her of everything that makes her worthwhile.

5 hours ago, Peach King said:

Stannis seemed to think he was enough proof

Stannis didn't even think Edric was good enough proof of infedility when Robert was alive. 

Edric by himself is not going compelling proof to the vast majority of people.

Yes he looks like his father and the children of Cersi don't look like Robert. Again big whoop. The bastard of Eddard Stark Jon looked like Ned more than his trueborn sons and elder true daughter. No ones thinking this is solid proof of infedility of Catelyn's part and we know she's been faithful to Ned always.

5 hours ago, Peach King said:

And no he would not, he would not have any guarantee Robert would choose Margaery so he needed her to look like the best candidate first - hence asking Ned if she looked like Lyanna

Yes he would. Margary is young, beautiful, energetic, charasmatic, she's of the right social rank,and her family controls the realm with the best military and she's of appropriate child-bearing age so Robert could reasonably expect an heir within a short while. And she'd have the endorsement of Robert's favorite brother, the one who saved Robert from a miserable marriage and having abominations steal his throne. 

She's the best canindate even without looking particularly like Lyanna.  There's little reason for Renly to think Robert would not choose choose Margary with all the benifits it entails to do so as well Margary's indivual positive traits if having cast aside Cersi over being an adulterer and brother-fucker.

Margary looking like Lyanna becomes inconsequential if Renly knew about the incest. Hell, to be clear we get no reports of Renly even doing investigating on Robert's bastards mothers like Arryn did so there'd  no reason for him to even think Cersi would know he suspects anything. 

[Lee-Sensei]

6 hours ago, GallowsKnight said:

Robert let the Lannisters infiltrate the court, whilst he otherwise ignored, openly disliked and antagonized them. He drove a wedge between what could have been a powerful and fruitful union, letting a situation arise where his heir was untrue.

Did he? Cersei would hated him for killing Rhaegar. He should have married someone else.

[Universal Sword Donor]

9 hours ago, Peach King said:

I'm not saying he's incompetent. Just that all those actions are linked to wanting glory/fame which is why he doesn't want to "cheat" since that would look bad in the history books. 

I mean he literally says this. Not sure why you keep repeating it. I've never disputed it.

9 hours ago, Peach King said:

Sure it's a factor, but then why does he take so long in getting to King's Landing? He sure took his sweet time. 

Honestly can't remember if Renly or his camp mentions why, but it's pretty obvious. They close the rose road off to anyone but his army. He's moving slowly, letting KL starve and his enemies (ostensibly merely the Lannisters) wear each other down. Considering there was a huge riot that burned part of KL and ~50% of the Lannister forces are scattered/destroyed, I'd say he's making the right decision. If the Starks also turn out to be enemies, then their defeat at the Green Fork and separation of troops (Westerlands vs Riverrun) plays into Renly's hands as well. Hell there's even a chance Robb could join his strength to him or Tywin could bend the knee. 

9 hours ago, Peach King said:

Already addressed this. At that point of time it was not in Renly's interests to reveal that he knew all along to Ned. Ned wouldn't trust him. It would be very convenient if suddenly the Lannister children were bastards when Stannis was absent and Renly was the next heir claimant. So Renly doesn't bring it up. 

Ned has been trying to get Stannis to court for months at this point. He's not going to let Renly jump line just because Stannis is 3 days away by ship. More importantly, when Renly does talk to Ned, he urges Ned to keep power as Lord Protector and Regent of Joffrey.

There is literally nothing in the text to suggest your course of action for Renly. 

9 hours ago, Peach King said:

If Renly knew of the incest, this could have been his plan: Make Ned seize Cersei's kids so he takes the brunt of Tywin and Cersei's wrath, in the meanwhile prepare his own little coup. Littlefinger almost describes the same scenario to Ned - reveal the incest, eliminate Stannis, Renly on throne. But Ned doesn't take his offer so Renly has no choice but to flee. Or it could even be declaring himself king was his third choice and he would be fine with Ned holding power for the time being. The thing is he couldn't have just told Ned. 

It could be. Unfortunately we have basically nothing to support that.

9 hours ago, Peach King said:

The plan just had 0 chance of succeeding. 

If she had looked like Lyanna, it would have had a chance. Cersei herself is worried about that exact type of plan. Renly was trying to hatch a plan like that. Clearly the concept had some traction.

9 hours ago, Peach King said:

This could just be because she didn't know the full extent of Renly's plans. Or even that she knew at all, she is obsessed with the prophecy after all. Renly only has to think she knows, and that could be why he is so fearful for his life. 

This is all irrelevant to my points. 

9 hours ago, Peach King said:

Edric was living with him, that's more than enough proof. 

The other bastards weren't enough proof. Jon Arryn and Stannis didn't summon the boy to KL. Stannis basically prays it'll be enough.

It is not. The only way they were going to prove the incest is if they are caught in the process or Cersei/Jaime admits it.

[Peach King]

7 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yes he does. His reasoning for why his plan is needed is to protect their necks. It does matter that Ned hates the lanister-when a person hates someone you're more likely for them to believe x bad thing about them than if than if that person loved someone. With the excuse of twincest the honorble Ned has reason to at least act. Whether to save his own ass or to gain power Renly still looks self-serving because it's clear he's doing all this for his benifit-which is by definition self-serving https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/self-serving

 

No one said Renly hated them. Hell even Renly doesn't say he's rebeling out of some hatred to the lanisters. The tournaments keep his men in high spirits. His rivals are destroying each other. KL is starving due to his alliance with the Tyrells. Him not rushing into battle isn't due to lazyness it is clearly calculated for him and his followers to come out of this the least hurt by the war by a long shot. 

Considering even Stannis knew about the plan its clear it wasn't that big of secret. Do only pure Psychopaths want revenge or to kill people who'd tried take everything that makes up their very being? To marry  a man who brings honour to their is the epitome of what noblewoman are trained since the time they could learn; Renly sought to take that away from her, and it's  fair to think Mace and Renly's ideal ending to the plan is that  Robert put her aside and name the children of Margary his heirs. 

Renly would be a fool to think most woman in Cersi's position and displayed temperament even at this point would so easily and not seek to retribution against him for trying to rob her of everything that makes her worthwhile.

Stannis didn't even think Edric was good enough proof of infedility when Robert was alive. 

Edric by himself is not going compelling proof to the vast majority of people.

Yes he looks like his father and the children of Cersi don't look like Robert. Again big whoop. The bastard of Eddard Stark Jon looked like Ned more than his trueborn sons and elder true daughter. No ones thinking this is solid proof of infedility of Catelyn's part and we know she's been faithful to Ned always.

Yes he would. Margary is young, beautiful, energetic, charasmatic, she's of the right social rank,and her family controls the realm with the best military and she's of appropriate child-bearing age so Robert could reasonably expect an heir within a short while. And she'd have the endorsement of Robert's favorite brother, the one who saved Robert from a miserable marriage and having abominations steal his throne. 

She's the best canindate even without looking particularly like Lyanna.  There's little reason for Renly to think Robert would not choose choose Margary with all the benifits it entails to do so as well Margary's indivual positive traits if having cast aside Cersi over being an adulterer and brother-fucker.

Margary looking like Lyanna becomes inconsequential if Renly knew about the incest. Hell, to be clear we get no reports of Renly even doing investigating on Robert's bastards mothers like Arryn did so there'd  no reason for him to even think Cersi would know he suspects anything. 

Saving your own ass and attempting a coup are two very different things. Wanting to be safe is not self serving. And the text does not say Renly was refused because he looked self-serving, not at all. He was refused because the oh so honourable Ned did not want to do something so drastic. Renly is hedging his bets here - going for the safer option first. And when it was clear Ned wasn't going to budge he left the crazy man. 

Someone did say Renly's main motivation for rebelling was the Lannisters. Again I did not say anything about laziness or bad battle strategies. 

If he was that terrified it had to come from somewhere. They may dislike each other but Cersei put on a veneer of being charming in public. And how would Renly know Stannis knew about his plan, or that others were even aware of it? And it's not possible for Margaery's children to be the heirs while Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella are still alive. 

He sure went through a whole lot of trouble to procure him then. Even killed an innocent man. And Renly does not need to work with Jon Arryn or Stannis for proofs - he can ask Robert to spy on them, bribe a housekeeper, any number of things. That along with Edric (and perhaps Gendry whom Renly would definitely see on his visits to Tobho Mott) would convince Robert. Robert also got along with Renly better and would be more inclined to believe him. 

As I said there is no guarantee. Why would he just marry a woman on his brother's behest if he could just sleep with her? He was already sleeping with a bunch of women. And a number of noble women would be lining up to marry Robert. Hell Robert might even decide to stay unattached. If he was already in love with Margaery however he would decide to marry her. That is why the plan is bed then wed. The Lyanna thing is just icing on the cake.

[Peach King]

28 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I mean he literally says this. Not sure why you keep repeating it. I've never disputed it.

Honestly can't remember if Renly or his camp mentions why, but it's pretty obvious. They close the rose road off to anyone but his army. He's moving slowly, letting KL starve and his enemies (ostensibly merely the Lannisters) wear each other down. Considering there was a huge riot that burned part of KL and ~50% of the Lannister forces are scattered/destroyed, I'd say he's making the right decision. If the Starks also turn out to be enemies, then their defeat at the Green Fork and separation of troops (Westerlands vs Riverrun) plays into Renly's hands as well. Hell there's even a chance Robb could join his strength to him or Tywin could bend the knee. 

Ned has been trying to get Stannis to court for months at this point. He's not going to let Renly jump line just because Stannis is 3 days away by ship. More importantly, when Renly does talk to Ned, he urges Ned to keep power as Lord Protector and Regent of Joffrey.

There is literally nothing in the text to suggest your course of action for Renly. 

It could be. Unfortunately we have basically nothing to support that.

If she had looked like Lyanna, it would have had a chance. Cersei herself is worried about that exact type of plan. Renly was trying to hatch a plan like that. Clearly the concept had some traction.

This is all irrelevant to my points. 

The other bastards weren't enough proof. Jon Arryn and Stannis didn't summon the boy to KL. Stannis basically prays it'll be enough.

It is not. The only way they were going to prove the incest is if they are caught in the process or Cersei/Jaime admits it.

So we agree Renly's main reason for going to war is not Lannister related. 

The question was why would Renly not tell Ned if he knew of the incest? And I gave the reason why. Ned might not let Renly up jump Stannis, but he might think that Renly was planning on usurping/killing his nephews and niece. And Ned being the good guy he is would not agree or like that. So Renly is playing it safe here. 

This is a hypothetical situation. It doesn't have to be in the text. I am outlining a plan Renly might have in mind if he knew of the incest. 

Cersei's fears are unfounded. 

OK - Cersei was totally justified in wanting to get rid of Renly since he posed a danger to her and her kids.

As you said they could have spied on Cersei and Jaime, or even asked the maids for some bedsheets or something. That along with Edric is enough. And Stannis didn't tell Robert because he didn't think he would believe him, especially since he was the heir. Renly has a much greater chance of succeeding, having a bit more cordial relationship with his brother. Plus Robert has been wanting to get rid of Cersei for ages. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 minute ago, Peach King said:

So we agree Renly's main reason for going to war is not Lannister related. 

No. His main reason is survival. We know this because he says it. It doesn't mean those actions aren't later linked to glory/fame. Like I said, he clearly enjoys the pomp and circumstance. 

1 minute ago, Peach King said:

The question was why would Renly not tell Ned if he knew of the incest? And I gave the reason why. Ned might not let Renly up jump Stannis, but he might think that Renly was planning on usurping/killing his nephews and niece. And Ned being the good guy he is would not agree or like that. So Renly is playing it safe here. 

You are projecting Renly playing it safe. Literally nothing Renly does or says corroborates it. In fact he actually states WHY he did what he did. Then it plays out like how he said it would. Then Cersei confirms she was going to kill him.

As to Ned suspecting something..... Well we have his POV. Nothing in there to corroborate that either. The only two options are thinking that Renly's swords wouldn't be enough -- hence demanding LF deliver the GCs -- or that what Renly wanted to do was more dishonorable than declaring the incest and illegitimacy in front of court. Since he was expecting Renly to accompany him and help the process, we can safely assume it's the latter not the former.

1 minute ago, Peach King said:

This is a hypothetical situation. It doesn't have to be in the text. I am outlining a plan Renly might have in mind if he knew of the incest. 

Luckily we don't really have to deal with hypotheticals. We know exactly what he did and probably 99% of the reasons he had for doing what he did.

1 minute ago, Peach King said:

Cersei's fears are unfounded. 

In your eyes. Not in hers or Renly's. Hell even Stannis acknowledged Renly's plan without dismissing it.

1 minute ago, Peach King said:

OK - Cersei was totally justified in wanting to get rid of Renly since he posed a danger to her and her kids.

Actual danger? No.

Removing her from court to diminish her power and influence? Yes.

Luckily she's still daughter to the most powerful lord in Westeros and heir to the Rock. 

1 minute ago, Peach King said:

As you said they could have spied on Cersei and Jaime. And Stannis didn't tell Robert because he didn't think he would believe him, especially since he was the heir. Renly has a much greater chance of succeeding, having a bit more cordial relationship with his brother. 

He has a much better chance of Robert not immediately throwing him out of the room. Anything is higher than zero. Renly would have done much the same what Stannis did. Notice how Renly didn't ask Robert AND Ned or just Robert to seize the children because he didn't feel he'd be safe. He went to Ned alone. There's less than no reason to think he'd approach Robert directly about incest, which he clearly doesn't know about. 

[Peach King]

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

No. His main reason is survival. We know this because he says it. It doesn't mean those actions aren't later linked to glory/fame. Like I said, he clearly enjoys the pomp and circumstance. 

You are projecting Renly playing it safe. Literally nothing Renly does or says corroborates it. In fact he actually states WHY he did what he did. Then it plays out like how he said it would. Then Cersei confirms she was going to kill him.

As to Ned suspecting something..... Well we have his POV. Nothing in there to corroborate that either. The only two options are thinking that Renly's swords wouldn't be enough -- hence demanding LF deliver the GCs -- or that what Renly wanted to do was more dishonorable than declaring the incest and illegitimacy in front of court. Since he was expecting Renly to accompany him and help the process, we can safely assume it's the latter not the former.

Luckily we don't really have to deal with hypotheticals. We know exactly what he did and probably 99% of the reasons he had for doing what he did.

In your eyes. Not in hers or Renly's. Hell even Stannis acknowledged Renly's plan without dismissing it.

Actual danger? No.

Removing her from court to diminish her power and influence? Yes.

Luckily she's still daughter to the most powerful lord in Westeros and heir to the Rock. 

He has a much better chance of Robert not immediately throwing him out of the room. Anything is higher than zero. Renly would have done much the same what Stannis did. Notice how Renly didn't ask Robert AND Ned or just Robert to seize the children because he didn't feel he'd be safe. He went to Ned alone. There's less than no reason to think he'd approach Robert directly about incest, which he clearly doesn't know about. 

No, because there are a number of other options for Renly which doesn't mean declaring himself king. And if we're taking everything at face value now - there's also the speech he makes to Catelyn about how he'll be the best king, Stannis be damned. Catelyn also pleads with him and Stannis to deal with the Lannisters first and they ignore her. 

Renly also makes a pretty telling remark here - "He had sworn to protect Robert's children". So he knew his incest accusations would be for naught. 

Ned did not suspect anything when Renly offered him his swords. However he  would probably suspect something of  Renly if he told him of the incest. 

What about Mace? He gets a pretty raw deal with 3 children still in the way of the throne. Why would he agree to whore out his precious daughter for something like that? Not to mention the instability it would bring to the kingdom. 

Cersei is shown to be hilariously wrong several times. And we don't know Stannis' reaction as he did not get a chance to say anything about it, because the conversation had already moved on. 

That is debatable on how much Renly knew. 

Wasn't Robert dying at the time? He and Renly got along, they went hunting together and actually had a working relationship unlike Stannis. I don't see why he wouldn't believe him, unlike with Stannis who would look like he was angling for the throne, Renly would only be doing his good duty if he told his brother and would be amply rewarded. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 minutes ago, Peach King said:

No, because there are a number of other options for Renly which doesn't mean declaring himself king. And if we're taking everything at face value now - there's also the speech he makes to Catelyn about how he'll be the best king, Stannis be damned. Catelyn also pleads with him and Stannis to deal with the Lannisters first and they ignore her. 

He tried two different and separate ways to diminish the Lannister influence and the threat to him while letting complete power rest in others hands (Marg introduction, Ned with hundred swords), so clearly his goal ISNT to be king but rather not dead. Once Cersei gains power as regent she can do pretty much whatever she wants, including arranging for him to be killed, like she did his brother. She can seize his land and titles back for Tommen (or Joff).  He makes two speeches to Catelyn btw. Stannis won't yield or enter an alliance with Renly unless he will be king, and Renly loses his alliance with the Tyrells if Marg ceases to be queen. What Catelyn proposes would certainly be in Renly's favor -- he is more popular with the nobility than any other candidate -- but it also ignores Stannis' personality, the likelihood of Renly winning via force/diplomacy, and the fact Tywin isn't going to let his grandson get kicked off the throne.

4 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Renly also makes a pretty telling remark here - "He had sworn to protect Robert's children". So he knew his incest accusations would be for naught. 

Those would have been the same children Ned was going to seize publicly the next day. We can safely dismiss that.

4 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Ned did not suspect anything when Renly offered him his swords. However he  would probably suspect something of  Renly if he told him of the incest. 

Cersei had already confessed to incest and the illegitimacy of her children. There was nothing for Ned to suspect. That's why he changed Robert's will from "joffrey" to "true born heir." He knew exactly what he wanted done, just a matter of when and how.

4 minutes ago, Peach King said:

What about Mace? He gets a pretty raw deal with 3 children still in the way of the throne. Why would he agree to whore out his daughter for something like that? 

If Cersei gets set aside, her children likely would as well. The king retains the right to name his successor. It might not be popular or and would likely create a succession crisis, but it doesn't mean he wouldn't do it.

4 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Cersei is shown to be hilariously wrong several times. And we don't know Stannis' reaction as he did not get a chance to say anything about it, because the conversation had already moved on. 

Look if GRRM saying its in the realm of possibility, Renly trying to instigate it, and Cersei worrying about it won't convince you, we can agree to disagree on this point.

4 minutes ago, Peach King said:

That is debatable on how much Renly knew. 

Wasn't Robert dying at the time? He and Renly got along, they went hunting together and actually had a working relationship unlike Stannis. I don't see why he wouldn't believe him, unlike with Stannis who would look like he was angling for the throne, Renly would only be doing his good duty if he told his brother and would be amply rewarded. 

You've put forth no proof Renly knew anything, just conjecture and assumptions. Robert was dying at the time. I don't know the exact timing of when Ned, Renly, and Barristan talked to Robert but Robert died within the next 12ish hours and Renly had left long before Robert died, once again prioritizing his survival because he knew he was in danger.

As to whether Robert had a good relationship with Renly, that's certainly up for debate. GRRM has weighed in on it:

There are many different kinds of love. Robert was dutiful toward his brothers, and no doubt loved them in a way... but he didn't necessarily like them. His relations with Stannis were always prickly. Renly was the baby of the family, and spent little time in Robert's company until he was old enough to come to court. I suspect Robert was fond of the boy, but not especially close to him.

Robert didnt' really work with Renly either. He named him as master of laws but barely ever attended:

“If we wait for my brother to grace us with his royal presence, it could be a long sit.”

“What Lord Varys means is that all this business of coin and crops and justice bores my royal brother to tears,” Lord Renly said, “so it falls to us to govern the realm. He does send us a command from time to time.”

So Renly might well have been able to talk to Robert about it but he would have had to bring proof, which neither Jon Arryn had managed to get nor had Stannis procured. Hell if Stannis had been in KL as opposed to fleeing (because he thought Cersei wanted him dead), he and Renly might have been able to broach the subject. He wasn't. Renly didn't because he almost certainly didn't know. If Renly would have been amply rewarded for knowing, he absolutely would have told Robert. However we see him trying to get Cersei out and Ned to seize the children for only his lands and titles (and life). He didn't know

[GallowsKnight]

15 hours ago, Lee-Sensei said:

Did he? Cersei would hated him for killing Rhaegar. He should have married someone else.

I'll agree Robert isn't to blame entirely. Cersei is/was a real piece of work. But a better relationship between the two was possible. Cersei was ambitious, he was charismatic and handsome. Had it gotten to a better start it would have likely been stable.

Cersei made sense. It brought Tywin firmly to their side, which made bringing the Reach and Dorne into line so much easier.

[Lee-Sensei]

34 minutes ago, GallowsKnight said:

I'll agree Robert isn't to blame entirely. Cersei is/was a real piece of work. But a better relationship between the two was possible. Cersei was ambitious, he was charismatic and handsome. Had it gotten to a better start it would have likely been stable.

Cersei made sense. It brought Tywin firmly to their side, which made bringing the Reach and Dorne into line so much easier.

It made sense in theory, but Cersei's crazy. Her brothers are gray characters, but she is closer to black. She has a lot of similarities with Ellyn Reyne. The poisons every man she has a relationship with. Jamie, Robert and Lancel.

[Angel Eyes]

26 minutes ago, Lee-Sensei said:

It made sense in theory, but Cersei's crazy. Her brothers are gray characters, but she is closer to black. She has a lot of similarities with Ellyn Reyne. The poisons every man she has a relationship with. Jamie, Robert and Lancel.

Ironic, isn’t it? Tywin had Ellyn Reyne killed and sired a carbon copy of her in his daughter.

[Lee-Sensei]

3 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Ironic, isn’t it? Tywin had Ellyn Reyne killed and sired a carbon copy of her in his daughter.

If she had just had his children they could have secured the Throne. She had job.