Renly was a dummy

[Peach King]

6 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He tried two different and separate ways to diminish the Lannister influence and the threat to him while letting complete power rest in others hands (Marg introduction, Ned with hundred swords), so clearly his goal ISNT to be king but rather not dead. Once Cersei gains power as regent she can do pretty much whatever she wants, including arranging for him to be killed, like she did his brother. She can seize his land and titles back for Tommen (or Joff).  He makes two speeches to Catelyn btw. Stannis won't yield or enter an alliance with Renly unless he will be king, and Renly loses his alliance with the Tyrells if Marg ceases to be queen. What Catelyn proposes would certainly be in Renly's favor -- he is more popular with the nobility than any other candidate -- but it also ignores Stannis' personality, the likelihood of Renly winning via force/diplomacy, and the fact Tywin isn't going to let his grandson get kicked off the throne.

Those would have been the same children Ned was going to seize publicly the next day. We can safely dismiss that.

Cersei had already confessed to incest and the illegitimacy of her children. There was nothing for Ned to suspect. That's why he changed Robert's will from "joffrey" to "true born heir." He knew exactly what he wanted done, just a matter of when and how.

If Cersei gets set aside, her children likely would as well. The king retains the right to name his successor. It might not be popular or and would likely create a succession crisis, but it doesn't mean he wouldn't do it.

Look if GRRM saying its in the realm of possibility, Renly trying to instigate it, and Cersei worrying about it won't convince you, we can agree to disagree on this point.

You've put forth no proof Renly knew anything, just conjecture and assumptions. Robert was dying at the time. I don't know the exact timing of when Ned, Renly, and Barristan talked to Robert but Robert died within the next 12ish hours and Renly had left long before Robert died, once again prioritizing his survival because he knew he was in danger.

As to whether Robert had a good relationship with Renly, that's certainly up for debate. GRRM has weighed in on it:

There are many different kinds of love. Robert was dutiful toward his brothers, and no doubt loved them in a way... but he didn't necessarily like them. His relations with Stannis were always prickly. Renly was the baby of the family, and spent little time in Robert's company until he was old enough to come to court. I suspect Robert was fond of the boy, but not especially close to him.

Robert didnt' really work with Renly either. He named him as master of laws but barely ever attended:

“If we wait for my brother to grace us with his royal presence, it could be a long sit.”

“What Lord Varys means is that all this business of coin and crops and justice bores my royal brother to tears,” Lord Renly said, “so it falls to us to govern the realm. He does send us a command from time to time.”

So Renly might well have been able to talk to Robert about it but he would have had to bring proof, which neither Jon Arryn had managed to get nor had Stannis procured. Hell if Stannis had been in KL as opposed to fleeing (because he thought Cersei wanted him dead), he and Renly might have been able to broach the subject. He wasn't. Renly didn't because he almost certainly didn't know. If Renly would have been amply rewarded for knowing, he absolutely would have told Robert. However we see him trying to get Cersei out and Ned to seize the children for only his lands and titles (and life). He didn't know

Looks like we're not convincing the other.

Renly had a number of options besides declaring himself king - less attractive options sure, but options nonetheless. 

Renly wanted the Lannisters gone. But he jumped at the chance of the crown. 

Doesn't matter what Ned did, just what Renly would think he would do. 

I just want to say there's no way Robert would set aside the children or Cersei, considering:

Tywin being pissed off

Cersei being pissed off

The crown Prince being pissed off

The losses to the treasury

Robert setting aside his wife just because causing a dangerous precedent - what's saying he wouldn't do that to Margaery too

The danger to Margaery and her kids (via assassination) due to pissed off Lannisters

Vassals and lords being pissed off 

The reputation it would bring the Tyrells, who are all about good public relations

The power it would bring the Lannisters, who would look like the injured party

The possibility of war

Etc etc so on and so forth

Which Mace wouldn't not be aware of. 

And you're completely off the point with the Ned thing here - I'm not talking him suspecting about the incest, I'm talking about him suspecting Renly would be up to no good. 

OK. 

GRRM says Robert was fond of the boy, and loved him in a way. Renly could have been working on his own to get proof like Ned was. We didn’t hear about Pycelle investigating Robert’s bastards either, but he knows about the incest. All of the Small Council knew except for Barristan who wasn't exactly bright. If Renly knew of the incest, he would be sitting on it until Robert falls for Margaery which would ensure Renly gets even more influence in court, as the Tyrells are his allies. However that plan fell apart because Robert died. 

I just don't think Renly, who's shown to be an able politician, and Mace, who has been accumulating both soft and hard power without any heavy losses throughout the series, would bank it all on such a half baked plan. But agree to disagree. 

The evidence is speculative but for speculation it's pretty solid. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

7 hours ago, Peach King said:

Looks like we're not convincing the other.

Renly had a number of options besides declaring himself king - less attractive options sure, but options nonetheless. 

See this is the crux of it. He did have options beside declaring himself king. He exhausted those options and then left KL. As long as he doesn't have allies --Ned has been imprisoned, Riverlands are on fire, Stannis is completely MIA -- he is totally vulnerable to the crown, who now wants him dead. It's as simple as that. Even if he gets the SL to follow him, he is still in position to get crushed if the tyrells are brought into the fold by Tywin. 

This particular angle gets repeated over and over again and it seems like people ignore what happened to Ned when he tried to go forth on his own. The closest analogue to Renly in this Robb and we see how it ended for him. Without gaining another ally, Renly would remain alone with most, not all, of the Stormlords -- would probably lose some without the reassurance of the strongest region being an ally as well -- and be at the mercy of whatever the Lannisters can get, which is a tyrell-lannister alliance.

7 hours ago, Peach King said:

Doesn't matter what Ned did, just what Renly would think he would do. 

Renly thinks what Ned is going to do will get him killed. That's why he warns Ned and laves.

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I just want to say there's no way Robert would set aside the children or Cersei, considering:

Tywin being pissed off

Cersei being pissed off

The crown Prince being pissed off

The losses to the treasury

Robert hates the Lannisters. He thinks Joffrey is a monster. That's where the Tyrells come in with their money. As to the Lannister debt, the old saying goes something like "If you owe the bank 100 dragons that's your problem. If you owe the bank 3 million dragons, that's the bank's problem.

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Robert setting aside his wife just because causing a dangerous precedent - what's saying he wouldn't do that to Margaery too

It would be a dangerous precedent, but not unheard of.

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The danger to Margaery and her kids (via assassination) due to pissed off Lannisters

Vassals and lords being pissed off 

The reputation it would bring the Tyrells, who are all about good public relations

The Tyrells sided with Renly in open rebellion to the crown. Then they sided with the Lannisters in an about face. Ambition > PR to Mace at least

If the Lannisters assassinated anyone in the royal family, they would be crushed a la the Greyjoys and they'd find no allies.

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The power it would bring the Lannisters, who would look like the injured party

The possibility of war

Etc etc so on and so forth

Which Mace wouldn't not be aware of. 

Mace wouldn't be aware of any of this? How dumb do you think he is?

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And you're completely off the point with the Ned thing here - I'm not talking him suspecting about the incest, I'm talking about him suspecting Renly would be up to no good. 

We know exactly what he thought. None of it was "Renly is up to no good."

This is what he said: "Robert is not dead yet. The gods may spare him. If not, I shall convene the council to hear his final words and consider the matter of the succession, but I will not dishonor his last hours on earth by shedding blood in his halls and dragging frightened children from their beds."

This is what he thought: When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die, Cersei Lannister had told him in the godswood. He found himself wondering if he had done the right thing by refusing Lord Renly’s offer. He had no taste for these intrigues, and there was no honor in threatening children, and yet . . . if Cersei elected to fight rather than flee, he might well have need of Renly’s hundred swords, and more besides.

 "If Ned started humming the "Fresh Prince" intro, maybe we'd have something to go off of. As it stands he second guesses himself and then throws his lot in with Baelish to do essentially what Renly told him to.

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The evidence is speculative but for speculation it's pretty solid. 

It's really not.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On June 26, 2018 at 9:43 AM, Peach King said:

Saving your own ass and attempting a coup are two very different things. Wanting to be safe is not self serving. And the text does not say Renly was refused because he looked self-serving, not at all. He was refused because the oh so honourable Ned did not want to do something so drastic. Renly is hedging his bets here - going for the safer option first. And when it was clear Ned wasn't going to budge he left the crazy

Wanting  to take hostage three children to save your own life is self-serving. By definition; "Serving ones own interest often with disregard to the truth or the interests of others".https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/self-serving

Renly is disregarding the well-being of nis nieces and nephews for his own interest; whether to continue breathing or gaining more power it is still self-serving. 

Saving ones own ass and attempting a coup aren't mutually exclusive. Attempting a coup can be the means to which someone thinks can protect themselves from those in control.

Ned did not want to follow Renly's plan on the eve of his best friend's.  He tried literaly to arrest Cersi and her children shortly after Robert's death, knowing if he were suceed they'd all be destroyed by Stannis. 

And you sir, basiclly argued telling Ned about the twincest would look like Renly is merely trying to seize power; tell me how that can not qualify as self-serving?

On June 26, 2018 at 9:43 AM, Peach King said:

Someone did say Renly's main motivation for rebelling was the Lannisters. Again I did not say anything about laziness or bad battle strategies. 

No one said he rebelled because he hated them. Why argue against something no one has said? And as well claim as say he seemed to be just having fun.

   8 hours ago,  Peach King said: 

I'm just saying if he's so motivated because of his hatred for Lannisters he would have rushedto KL to put their heads upon spikes. But he instead seems to be having a lot of fun 

 

On June 26, 2018 at 9:43 AM, Peach King said:

If he was that terrified it had to come from somewhere. They may dislike each other but Cersei put on a veneer of being charming in public. And how would Renly know Stannis knew about his plan, or that others were even aware of it? And it's not possible for Margaery's children to be the heirs while Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella are still alive. 

Cersi can be plenty nasty during public. And Renly knows what she's like in private. Stannis literaly made fun of Renly's plan to replace Cersi  when he and Renly parlayed. And neither brother acted as if this was some new topic that's only now being discussed. And given how even Stannis knows, one can infer it wasn't that much of a secret on what Renly tried to do.. And no. It is certianly possible for Robert to name the children of his and Margary's Union as his heirs. It would probably cause quite a lot of fighting, but it is possible. But again, Margary's children becoming Robert's heirs would the ideal outcome-not the expected or reasonably hoped for-the ideal. Having his grandsons be princes and his daughter the queen  and thus part of the Royal faimily is still a major win. As has been pointed out repeatdly.

 

On June 26, 2018 at 9:43 AM, Peach King said:

He sure went through a whole lot of trouble to procure him then. Even killed an innocent man. And Renly does not need to work with Jon Arryn or Stannis for proofs - he can ask Robert to spy on them, bribe a housekeeper, any number of things. That along with Edric (and perhaps Gendry whom Renly would definitely see on his visits to Tobho Mott) would convince Robert. Robert also got along with Renly better and would be more inclined to believe him. 

Stannis killed a man who refused surrender Stormsend-not an innocent, a rebel. And the main crux of going to get Stormsend was to get Stormsend, the Baratheon seat of power. Getting Edric was merely a helpful side benifit to which Stannis realized could prove useful. Stannis didn't think it was enough proof for when Robert was alive. The one person Srannis had to convince. Clearly even Stannis recognizes how weak Edric Storm is as "evidence", given he never thought he was good enough to convince Robert. Yet Renly should have believed the children of Cersi were bastards by virtue of them looking more like their mother than Robert?

 Edric looks like his father. Again Big whoop. That in it of itself isn't proof of anything other than he's Robert's bastard.

Renly simply cannot ask his brother just to spy on his wife without giving the reason.  

Given Gendry makes no reference having ever seen his uncle visit doubtful Renly came himself to Mott's to pick up his gear;  Renly has servents for that. Like Edric simply put Gendry looking like his father even alongside Edric isn't that convincing; only 2 of the 6 children Ned Stark sired really looked anything like him, should Ned had feared he'd been cuckholded by another man? Of course not. 

Ultimately he could try to find out incriminating information on Cersi but he'd have no reason to think he'd been compromised-we know Cersi did not punish any spies of his who could have known about then inchest

On June 26, 2018 at 9:43 AM, Peach King said:

As I said there is no guarantee. Why would he just marry a woman on his brother's behest if he could just sleep with her? He was already sleeping with a bunch of women.

Are you seriously going to ignore all the positive things I listed about Margary to which Robert would find appealing? Her rank, her looks, her faimily's power, her personality as well as being endorsed by Robert's brother who saved the day makes her the perfect canindate. You seriously cannot pretend Robert would not feel grateful and trusting of the brother who saved him from a terrible marriage and kept his throne safe from monsters? He would continue to sleep with a bunch of women. He needs to marry one. The right one. He always slept around a lot, but  he married Cersi under the advice of Jon Arryn, a man Robert was deeply indedted to, and trusted. Cersi didn't look like  Lyanna. In the end looking like Lyanna was a never a necessity for Robert being willingly to marry someone.

 

On June 26, 2018 at 9:43 AM, Peach King said:

And a number of noble women would be lining up to marry Robert. Hell Robert might even decide to stay unattached.

A very limited amount of noblewoman(most of which would be daughters of the lord paramounts of the realms-all of which can't offer anything as good to that of Highgarden) would actually be serious canindates for marriage. Margary is still the perfect canindate. 

Robert needs an heir to continue his legacy and stabilize his kingdom. 

He cannot simply say no on this.

On June 26, 2018 at 9:43 AM, Peach King said:

If he was already in love with Margaery however he would decide to marry her. That is why the plan is bed then wed. The Lyanna thing is just icing on the cake.

She is young, beautiful, charasmatic, the right age to bear children, and is the daughter of the realm with arguebly the strongest military power. And a ringing endorsement from the brother who saved him an awful marriage, his throne, and possibly his life. 

[Peach King]

Points are just being rehashed so - I wanna ask why Renly would have a 100 men at the ready if he wasn't planning something? He was certainly thinking of doing something, or otherwise expecting something to happen. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Points are just being rehashed so - I wanna ask why Renly would have a 100 men at the ready if he wasn't planning something? He was certainly thinking of doing something, or otherwise expecting something to happen. 

He doesn't have 100 men at the ready. He needs an hour to get his friends at court -- at least Loras' retinue and the Royces -- ready. Loras will follow Renly's lead. Bronze Yohn hates the Lannisters. He wasn't in KL after Robert died. He's clearly going to convince them to back him and Ned up. We know this because .... he tells Ned Cersei is going to kill him and Ned after she gains power.

[Trigger Warning]

17 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Points are just being rehashed so - I wanna ask why Renly would have a 100 men at the ready if he wasn't planning something? He was certainly thinking of doing something, or otherwise expecting something to happen. 

 

This is a reach, he literally explains who these men are.

“My lord, I have thirty men in my personal guard, and other friends beside, knights and lords. Give me an hour, and I can put a hundred swords in your hand.”

It's not a unit of men ready and waiting to perform a coup it's just Renly's own men and the men of his friends that will back him up. He's the Lord of Storm's End, master of laws, the King's brother and very popular besides of course he can quickly assemble some men in King's Landing especially when he's making nearly a third of that up with his own personal guards. 

[Peach King]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He doesn't have 100 men at the ready. He needs an hour to get his friends at court -- at least Loras' retinue and the Royces -- ready. Loras will follow Renly's lead. Bronze Yohn hates the Lannisters. He wasn't in KL after Robert died. He's clearly going to convince them to back him and Ned up. We know this because .... he tells Ned Cersei is going to kill him and Ned after she gains power.

 

57 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

This is a reach, he literally explains who these men are.

“My lord, I have thirty men in my personal guard, and other friends beside, knights and lords. Give me an hour, and I can put a hundred swords in your hand.”

It's not a unit of men ready and waiting to perform a coup it's just Renly's own men and the men of his friends that will back him up. He's the Lord of Storm's End, master of laws, the King's brother and very popular besides of course he can quickly assemble some men in King's Landing especially when he's making nearly a third of that up with his own personal guards. 

OK you're right. He doesn't have a 100 men at the ready. But it does seem unrealistic that he could just convince these guys with "Hey y'all let's raise our arms against the Queen and grab her kids in an action that would no doubt be viewed as treasonous just cause I said so!" and they'd simply accept, if there wasn't prior planning. Or scheming. Or maybe they just love him that much, and would do anything for him. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

5 minutes ago, Peach King said:

OK you're right. He doesn't have a 100 men at the ready. But it does seem unrealistic that he could just convince these guys with "Hey y'all let's raise our arms against the Queen and grab her kids in an action that would no doubt be viewed as treasonous just cause I said so!" and they'd simply accept, if there wasn't prior planning. Or scheming. Or maybe they just love him that much, and would do anything for him. 

No it doesn't. Royce wanted to fight the throne from ACoK on and is gone before Robert dies. Loras is Renly's best friend and lover.

Renly already knows what's in Ned's letter. If he goes to all his friends, lovers and allies with the message that Cersei will throw out Robert's will and last requests and threaten his life and possibly theirs, how slowly do you think they'll react.

Once again, Ned second guesses himself after Renly warns him to act swiftly or he'll regret it. AND THEN IT HAPPENS!!

How much convincing do you think his friends will need? Not much. It's not as if the people at court don't know Cersei and Joffrey

[Trigger Warning]

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

 

OK you're right. He doesn't have a 100 men at the ready. But it does seem unrealistic that he could just convince these guys with "Hey y'all let's raise our arms against the Queen and grab her kids in an action that would no doubt be viewed as treasonous just cause I said so!" and they'd simply accept, if there wasn't prior planning. Or scheming. Or maybe they just love him that much, and would do anything for him. 

 

They're Renly's pals and the Lannisters are absolutely hated by a lot of people, just look at this. 

"Were he to die, and I mean to see that he does, he has a younger brother. Tommen is next in line after Joffrey.” “Tommen is no less a Lannister,” Ser Marq Piper snapped"

This is before their parentage is even in question as far as the Riverlords are concerned and Piper still can't accept a half Lannister king. For all we know the majority of that 100 could simply be made up of Loras' and Renly's retinues, 100 men is a pretty small contingent for a man like Renly to have prepared for a coup. Also regarding people doing stuff for Renly, the majority of the Reach rose in rebellion for him to usurp his nephews that were legitimate as far as they knew after the sudden death of Robert, I don't think it's a stretch to think he could raise 100 men in King's Landing among his personal friends especially when those at court will have first hand experience of Joffrey and Cersei's personality.  

[Peach King]

On 6/29/2018 at 8:37 AM, Universal Sword Donor said:

No it doesn't. Royce wanted to fight the throne from ACoK on and is gone before Robert dies. Loras is Renly's best friend and lover.

Renly already knows what's in Ned's letter. If he goes to all his friends, lovers and allies with the message that Cersei will throw out Robert's will and last requests and threaten his life and possibly theirs, how slowly do you think they'll react.

Once again, Ned second guesses himself after Renly warns him to act swiftly or he'll regret it. AND THEN IT HAPPENS!!

How much convincing do you think his friends will need? Not much. It's not as if the people at court don't know Cersei and Joffrey

 

On 6/29/2018 at 11:23 AM, Trigger Warning said:

 

They're Renly's pals and the Lannisters are absolutely hated by a lot of people, just look at this. 

"Were he to die, and I mean to see that he does, he has a younger brother. Tommen is next in line after Joffrey.” “Tommen is no less a Lannister,” Ser Marq Piper snapped"

This is before their parentage is even in question as far as the Riverlords are concerned and Piper still can't accept a half Lannister king. For all we know the majority of that 100 could simply be made up of Loras' and Renly's retinues, 100 men is a pretty small contingent for a man like Renly to have prepared for a coup. Also regarding people doing stuff for Renly, the majority of the Reach rose in rebellion for him to usurp his nephews that were legitimate as far as they knew after the sudden death of Robert, I don't think it's a stretch to think he could raise 100 men in King's Landing among his personal friends especially when those at court will have first hand experience of Joffrey and Cersei's personality.  

This is a very late reply, sorry for the bother. But

This is what Littlefinger says:
 

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"And you without an army." Littlefinger toyed with the dagger on the table, turning it slowly with a finger. "There is small love lost between Lord Renly and the Lannisters. Bronze Yohn Royce, Ser Balon Swann, Ser Loras, Lady Tanda, the Redwyne twins … each of them has a retinue of knights and sworn swords here at court."

"Renly has thirty men in his personal guard, the rest even fewer. It is not enough, even if I could be certain that all of them will choose to give me their allegiance. I must have the gold cloaks. The City Watch is two thousand strong, sworn to defend the castle, the city, and the king's peace."

 

Since Renly has 30 men in his guard and the rest fewer, let's assume they each have 15 (which is already an overestimation since even Tyrion has only 2 men in his personal guard) . So that's Loras + 15 = 45, Bronze Yohn + 15 = 60, what about the rest?

Yeah I think it's a stretch. People willing to incite war for a "paper shield"? (as Cersei says). The Marq Piper quote was after Tywin was ravaging the countryside via Gregor Clegane and Joff was already king and executing people for fun. They acted charming and kind whilst in Robert's court, so charming that Sansa was fooled even after Cersei ordered Lady's death.