What do you think caused Martin to loose his grip on the material?

[AlienCarnivore]

On 11/3/2018 at 3:43 PM, Ser Gareth said:

I've been an avid reader of the series since 1998.  I was one of those waiting patiently for a AFFC.  I've read a lot of things GRRM has said.  Like the time he said that TWOW was his only focus and he had ceased work on everything else.  Then a couple of years down the line it turns out he edited a Wildcards book (which he has freely admitted takes a lot of time and focus) and now we have another book coming out before TWOW.  Speaking of TWOW, he was months away from finishing it years ago.  Make of that what you will.....

What you just typed is different than accusing him of not working on it at all the last few years. I've seen many people claim that he's stopped working on it entirely, which I think is just incorrect. I'm by no means a GRRM fanboy, but I don't think he would just flat out lie to his fans when he's said he's been working on it. 

I do agree with others when they say that the main characters being too young ended up screwing him in the end (notably Bran and Arya, they are definitely at least 3 years too young IMO). 

[Werthead]

On 11/3/2018 at 7:43 PM, Ser Gareth said:

I've been an avid reader of the series since 1998.  I was one of those waiting patiently for a AFFC.  I've read a lot of things GRRM has said.  Like the time he said that TWOW was his only focus and he had ceased work on everything else.  Then a couple of years down the line it turns out he edited a Wildcards book (which he has freely admitted takes a lot of time and focus) and now we have another book coming out before TWOW.  Speaking of TWOW, he was months away from finishing it years ago.  Make of that what you will.....

Worth noting that when GRRM said that TWoW was his primary focus, he explicitly said he would continue to co-edit the Wild Cards books as he had done for 25+ years previously. They're a pre-existing commitment, they're an important source of income for the (considerably less-well-off-than-GRRM) writers who work on it, and they're pretty straightforward, plus he worked on them throughout the rest of ASoIaF, when the books came out fast and when they came out slow.

Fire & Blood was a book he wrote five years ago during the planning of WoIaF (it basically is the unedited WoIaF text), which I get the impression his publishers suggested he published because it was already big enough to work as a stand-alone book and also because it would be useful in getting ahead of the spin-off TV shows, although the latter rationale is apparently outdated because HBO chose to go with the one spin-off that has nothing at all to do with F&B.

The real reason why GRRM is struggling is the same now as it ever has been since c. 2001: his free-flowing, improvisational "gardener" approach is fundamentally incompatible with writing a massive, multi-thousand page, multi-dozen POV mega-series in a reasonable timeframe. Pretty much every fantasy author who likes to call themselves a gardener has discovered the same thing at some point and been forced to course-correct. GRRM has, so far, not been minded to do so.

[SuperMario]

Go read his recent blog post where he mentions TWOW. Although he is bummed about their records, he talks at length with excitement about his football teams. He then is giddy with joy about all the different TV shows and movies coming out based on his work.

Then at the very end, almost as an afterthought, he mentions TWOW and how it is work and that he hopes to finish it. It's almost as if talking about writing TWOW is a chore.

That is a person who is so mentally checked out on the series. We will be lucky if we ever see Winds in our lifetimes, let alone Dream.

[Hello World]

28 minutes ago, SuperMario said:

Then at the very end, almost as an afterthought, he mentions TWOW and how it is work and that he hopes to finish it. It's almost as if talking about writing TWOW is a chore.

That is a person who is so mentally checked out on the series. We will be lucky if we ever see Winds in our lifetimes, let alone Dream. 

Yeah, as I said, this is a story that he first wanted to write decades ago (40 years?). He wanted to finish it this whole time, I'm sure, but at some point his priorities must have changed, especially when he realized that completing ASOIAF was way more complicated that he can apparently deal with in time and the show has already passed him.

[Cas Stark]

It looks more and more like things have moved beyond lost control of the story and are closer to having lost control and given up on the struggle.  The more I look at the history starting in the early 2000s the more clear it is that GRRM has been struggling with the material already for almost 20 years, and it looks like he has lost that battle.

[T and A]

2 hours ago, SuperMario said:

Go read his recent blog post where he mentions TWOW. Although he is bummed about their records, he talks at length with excitement about his football teams. He then is giddy with joy about all the different TV shows and movies coming out based on his work.

Then at the very end, almost as an afterthought, he mentions TWOW and how it is work and that he hopes to finish it. It's almost as if talking about writing TWOW is a chore.

That is a person who is so mentally checked out on the series. We will be lucky if we ever see Winds in our lifetimes, let alone Dream.

He allways talks about Winds like a disease he has to carry with him, or an unwanted child someone dropped at his door that he has to carry for now. Nothing new really.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

19 hours ago, SuperMario said:

Go read his recent blog post where he mentions TWOW. Although he is bummed about their records, he talks at length with excitement about his football teams. He then is giddy with joy about all the different TV shows and movies coming out based on his work.

Then at the very end, almost as an afterthought, he mentions TWOW and how it is work and that he hopes to finish it. It's almost as if talking about writing TWOW is a chore.

That is a person who is so mentally checked out on the series. We will be lucky if we ever see Winds in our lifetimes, let alone Dream.

 

That's a little disingenuous. Yes he is excited about a bunch of new stuff. Who wouldn't be? But what he wrote was:

Quote

I better go.  Lots more to do today.   Believe it or not, I am working hard on a lot of things (yes, including WINDS), even though I am not allowed to talk about most of them.   Eventually, I hope, you’ll all be able to enjoy the fruits of my labors.  I hope…

Right below that his "Current Mood" was listed as "busy". So, he gave us a quick update on something we all know isn't imminent, but let us know it is in the mix at least. I'll take that over any more pie in the sky promises. At least it's realistic.

Now, that last statement is a little cryptic and worrisome. It sounds like he still has several more knots to untie and smooth out before we get anything substantial and/or that he has other projects tugging at him that take much of his creative time. Either that or it's something I don't want to think about.

[T and A]

1 hour ago, Trefayne said:

 

That's a little disingenuous. Yes he is excited about a bunch of new stuff. Who wouldn't be? But what he wrote was:

Right below that his "Current Mood" was listed as "busy". So, he gave us a quick update on something we all know isn't imminent, but let us know it is in the mix at least. I'll take that over any more pie in the sky promises. At least it's realistic.

Now, that last statement is a little cryptic and worrisome. It sounds like he still has several more knots to untie and smooth out before we get anything substantial and/or that he has other projects tugging at him that take much of his creative time. Either that or it's something I don't want to think about.

Believe me, this is him saying later, "I told you not no expect it".

[BlackLightning]

Do you think it's wrong to forecast the release of The Winds of Winter n 2019?

 

Or 2020 at the absolute latest...

[Lluewhyn]

In regards to the initial question, I think the problem is obviously his writing habits.

1. As his own boss, he doesn't discipline himself to meet deadlines. He mentions that he can never write when he's on the road doing his various tours, book signings, etc. This is a weirdly honest comment in the vein of telling my boss "Sorry I got so far behind on my work, I couldn't get to it because I was taking a lot of vacation days". He also works on old technology, which doesn't speed up his writing habits.

The next two problems are related.

2. He apparently refuses to use an outline? Others have stated this, so nothing new. It doesn't seem like he has any sit-downs with people he trusts to work out various intersecting points. Instead, he simply lets the muse take him and writes what he's feeling at the moment. Once again, others have stated that this isn't the most appropriate style when approaching the end game.

3. I've heard somewhere that he simply writes an idea out (see #2), and if he doesn't like where it's going he simply deletes back to where he felt the problem started occurring. This would be a good explanation to me for why he seems to think he's close to finishing, but then hasn't finished several years after that point. He reached a point where he didn't feel like a story element was working, so he deleted all the pages related to that element. That seems like it would explain a lot, even though that's very weird.

[Quaithe from Asshai]

On 11/6/2018 at 12:18 PM, SuperMario said:

Go read his recent blog post where he mentions TWOW. Although he is bummed about their records, he talks at length with excitement about his football teams. He then is giddy with joy about all the different TV shows and movies coming out based on his work.

Then at the very end, almost as an afterthought, he mentions TWOW and how it is work and that he hopes to finish it. It's almost as if talking about writing TWOW is a chore.

That is a person who is so mentally checked out on the series. We will be lucky if we ever see Winds in our lifetimes, let alone Dream.

TBH I think he meant that he is editing TWOW.

With all of the rumors of cover art and translations, I think he's done with the plot.

[Dracaris]

Hello, hope you're all doing well.. I thought of skimming for a quick update and ended up biting my nails for an hour.. good stuff. As for westeros and the world of ice and fire, I like it when i visit, and its allways good to be invited back (meaning a new book is out), but I try to remind myself that it's just a speck in a landscape too wide to explore extensivly in my lifetime. I'm glad the tv show will step in for closure if worst comes to worst, I dont think I could endure a change of writers like I did when I just HAD TO KNOW how the dune series would end, and without meaning any disrespect to Brian Herbert, that was less than pleasant; I've since grown, and now I'm allowed to make up my own endings, and until I'm proven a liar, I'm sure i can recall that the dragonstone dragons came to life, Jaime sprouted a new hand, Tyrion came out of the closet and lives happily ever after with Varys on one arm and whoever-I-find-funny-at-a-moment's-notice-on-the-other-as-long-as-they-all-have-drag- Danny on the other, Aria cleaned house for Sam and magic is now science, Manderley survives diabetes with the helping knife of the Boltons, and so much more I could tell you about if we could all be bothered to care. As for the author, allow him to thrive and be merry. I thought of talking to him on a book-signing at a mall when he was satrting to get noticed enough to get an european tour and it felt like a Kardashian had married a turkey after he got drunk for thanksgiving and thew were featuring it- a shallow circus. I see depth here, I find guidance here for my dwelling, I just wish I could get rid of this awfull stoneskin..

[Cas Stark]

54 minutes ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

TBH I think he meant that he is editing TWOW.

With all of the rumors of cover art and translations, I think he's done with the plot.

It would be pretty nutty to release F&B now if Winds is finished except for editing, and it was still possible to get it out while the show is airing.

[kissdbyfire]

This thread should be renamed "the whinger's lounge". 

[Three-Fingered Pete]

32 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

This thread should be renamed "the whinger's lounge". 

 

Don't you have a Janos Slynt thread to start?

[Three-Fingered Pete]

53 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

It would be pretty nutty to release F&B now if Winds is finished except for editing, and it was still possible to get it out while the show is airing.

 

Not if they are planning on releasing Winds around the time the show is ending next year. Big swell of publicity and the specter of the show is finally gone. I'm not holding my breath, but I can hope.

[SuperMario]

14 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

TBH I think he meant that he is editing TWOW.

With all of the rumors of cover art and translations, I think he's done with the plot.

I'm pretty sure George said in the past he would announce once he has completed the book. Meaning, once it reaches the editing phase, he would announce it was done on his blog.

Also, we've had translation rumors for years. And the cover art means nothing. ADWD had it's cover art announced a couple years ahead of when the book was released.

 

[Cas Stark]

Welp, I'm bored, so, I'll go back to the original topic, of when the author lost control of the material, and I will always believe it was the abandonment of the 5 year gap, so many people say it was unworkable, but I don't see that.

Arya: would have been in Essos training, we meet her again as a teenager.

Bran: would have been in the cave, or we could meet him after he's back from the far North, and been hiding out with wildlings, he's also a teenager.

Sansa: would have spent 5 years in the Vale as Alayne, this doesn't work quite as well, as it might seem likely that she would have been found out by then, but the Eyrie is not very accessible so it still works, this would also facilitate the introduction of Sansa the player, where a more mature version of her character would make sense, not the strange few paragraph transformation we got in Alayne.

Rickon:  has been with osha, comes back.

Jon:  he's been LC, and has been doing deals with the wildlings for 5 years, culminating finally in the events of Dance, where his men mutiny, I'm sure the author could have come up with a convincing version of events where it took 5 years.

Cersei and Jamie: she rules badly, they become more estranged, in effect, you would have the same story we have gotten only it would be happening 5 years in the future and could end virtually the same place and way.

Brienne:  depending on her end game, she could have been looking for the Starks, given up, gone home, dedicated herself to the small folk, she may never have needed a pov at all and we can simply meet her again when she is needed.

Theon:  Held captive for 5 years, very similar with Cersei and Jamie that we can see the events of Dance happening but they would be happening at the 5 year mark

Roose/Ramsay:  same, they've been ruling the North, creating havoc, and we come back when the North is ready to boil over.

Aegon/Arienne..we may never have needed them without the gap at all, depending again on their role in the endgame, they can remain secondary players, no povs needed.

Dany/Selmy:  ruling in essos, this gives her time to fix slaver's bay economy and then leave for Westeros. If we must have Dothraki chapters, then start there, start with her last chapter in Dance as being at the 5 year mark and go from there

Tyrion:  has been knocking around essos for 5 years, I didn't find his exploits that interesting, we can have a flashback to his arrival there, and then a short summary of whatever, then he meets Dany and we're off.

Stannis:  he is the biggest problem, but he could have a back story that he went to Essos for a couple of years, then went to the Wall and we can meet him again around the end of Dance, but its happening at the 5 year mark, so we would still have the battle for Winterfell, alternatively, we can pick up after that battle.

Vic//Damphair: no povs needed, if Dany needs the fleet, give it to her as the backstory

**This took me about 15 minutes**  By my reckoning this would keep about 25 to 30% of what was written for Feast and Dance but allow for a huge amount of forward momentum since we would not have spent those books running in place with almost every character. We would have bypassed Brienne's pointless wanderings, Dany's repetitive failures, Arya's training, we can get the highlights in flashback, Bran's going North, Tyrion's travels, and so on,

[Three-Fingered Pete]

37 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Welp, I'm bored, so, I'll go back to the original topic, of when the author lost control of the material, and I will always believe it was the abandonment of the 5 year gap, so many people say it was unworkable, but I don't see that.

Arya: would have been in Essos training, we meet her again as a teenager.

Bran: would have been in the cave, or we could meet him after he's back from the far North, and been hiding out with wildlings, he's also a teenager.

Sansa: would have spent 5 years in the Vale as Alayne, this doesn't work quite as well, as it might seem likely that she would have been found out by then, but the Eyrie is not very accessible so it still works, this would also facilitate the introduction of Sansa the player, where a more mature version of her character would make sense, not the strange few paragraph transformation we got in Alayne.

Rickon:  has been with osha, comes back.

Jon:  he's been LC, and has been doing deals with the wildlings for 5 years, culminating finally in the events of Dance, where his men mutiny, I'm sure the author could have come up with a convincing version of events where it took 5 years.

Cersei and Jamie: she rules badly, they become more estranged, in effect, you would have the same story we have gotten only it would be happening 5 years in the future and could end virtually the same place and way.

Theon:  Held captive for 5 years, very similar with Cersei and Jamie that we can see the events of Dance happening but they would be happening at the 5 year mark

Roose/Ramsay:  same, they've been ruling the North, creating havoc, and we come back when the North is ready to boil over.

Aegon/Arienne..we may never have needed them without the gap at all, depending again on their role in the endgame, they can remain secondary players, no povs needed.

Dany/Selmy:  ruling in essos, this gives her time to fix slaver's bay economy and then leave for Westeros. If we must have Dothraki chapters, then start there, start with her last chapter in Dance as being at the 5 year mark and go from there

 

I agree with pretty much all of this, but these:

 

Quote

Brienne:  depending on her end game, she could have been looking for the Starks, given up, gone home, dedicated herself to the small folk, she may never have needed a pov at all and we can simply meet her again when she is needed.

Tyrion:  has been knocking around essos for 5 years, I didn't find his exploits that interesting, we can have a flashback to his arrival there, and then a short summary of whatever, then he meets Dany and we're off.

Stannis:  he is the biggest problem, but he could have a back story that he went to Essos for a couple of years, then went to the Wall and we can meet him again around the end of Dance, but its happening at the 5 year mark, so we would still have the battle for Winterfell, alternatively, we can pick up after that battle.

Vic//Damphair: no povs needed, if Dany needs the fleet, give it to her as the backstory

 

Brienne's POV would have been much better spent delving into the Lady Stoneheart situation. She could have become just as weary and bedraggled as Jamie encountered her and that storyline could have kept for a few years book time without impacting much in the overall plot. We might have only needed two or three POV chapters to do this.

Find some way of getting Jorah in there and as far as Tyrion's impact on the story, yeah.

I think it would have been better if Stannis had gone north instead of south and took on the Others head on for a few years. After everyone thinking he is dead (except for a few wildling rumors of an insane warrior god King Beyond the Wall), he comes back a raving fanatic bent on bringing everyone to his crusade. Perhaps he could execute his arrival just after a certain LC gets his untimely dispatching.

Neither Victarion nor Aeron were needed. The only reason they exist is because GRRM didn't want to write Euron as a POV, which would have solved all of the Ironborn story needs after Asha cuts out. But, since he didn't write a Euron POV, someone is needed there. Victarion could have been written as backstory for sure, but Aeron is needed if there is to be a Pyke POV subplot.

[Cas Stark]

6 minutes ago, Trefayne said:

 

I agree with pretty much all of this, but these:

 

 

Brienne's POV would have been much better spent delving into the Lady Stoneheart situation. She could have become just as weary and bedraggled as Jamie encountered her and that storyline could have kept for a few years book time without impacting much in the overall plot. We might have only needed two or three POV chapters to do this.

Find some way of getting Jorah in there and as far as Tyrion's impact on the story, yeah.

I think it would have been better if Stannis had gone north instead of south and took on the Others head on for a few years. After everyone thinking he is dead (except for a few wildling rumors of an insane warrior god King Beyond the Wall), he comes back a raving fanatic bent on bringing everyone to his crusade. Perhaps he could execute his arrival just after a certain LC gets his untimely dispatching.

Neither Victarion nor Aeron were needed. The only reason they exist is because GRRM didn't want to write Euron as a POV, which would have solved all of the Ironborn story needs after Asha cuts out. But, since he didn't write a Euron POV, someone is needed there. Victarion could have been written as backstory for sure, but Aeron is needed if there is to be a Pyke POV subplot.

This would all work, I'm not sure we needed Euron, maybe he could have switched up Asha as the pov there, and I like Stannis coming back as a fanatic, sort of...but this continues to convince me that the gap was workable, and if he had stuck with it, he may already be finished, as he wished.  The dancing and feasting crows and dragons would have been 1 book that ends somewhere that Winds will probably end...Dany and Arya get to Westeros, Tyrion is back in power, Bran is ready for whatever, Cersei falls or goes godfather ...etc. etc.