What do you think caused Martin to loose his grip on the material?

[Rhodan]

1 hour ago, Trefayne said:

Neither Victarion nor Aeron were needed. The only reason they exist is because GRRM didn't want to write Euron as a POV, which would have solved all of the Ironborn story needs after Asha cuts out. But, since he didn't write a Euron POV, someone is needed there. Victarion could have been written as backstory for sure, but Aeron is needed if there is to be a Pyke POV subplot.

While I don´t care much about this issue, these two are actually written to be quite a good reactions to Euron´s character. One deeply fears him and actually knows him better than anyone else, the other still dislikes him , but secretly wants to be like him.  Euron needed to be quicky introduced and established as effectively as possible. He wasn´t given his POV, because a) that´s the tradition with the kings, b) for the same reason Varys or Littlefinger don´t have one. He knows too much about the secret parts of the plot. 

[Three-Fingered Pete]

5 minutes ago, Rhodan said:

While I don´t care much about this issue, these two are actually written to be quite a good reactions to Euron´s character. One deeply fears him and actually knows him better than anyone else, the other still dislikes him , but secretly wants to be like him.  Euron needed to be quicky introduced and established as effectively as possible. He wasn´t given his POV, because a) that´s the tradition with the kings, b) for the same reason Varys or Littlefinger don´t have one. He knows too much about the secret parts of the plot. 

 

Oh, I agree in the context of the story as published, but Cas Stark and I were postulating what if the five year gap had gone into effect as planned.

[Kyll.Ing.]

On 11/7/2018 at 10:27 PM, Jabar of House Titan said:

Do you think it's wrong to forecast the release of The Winds of Winter n 2019?

 

Or 2020 at the absolute latest...

It was wrong to forecast it in 2014.

It was wrong to forecast it in 2015. Even though GRRM himself did.

It was wrong to forecast it in 2016. In his blog post of January 2, GRRM said it was "at least several months" away. Almost thirty-five months later, still no book.

It was wrong to forecast it in 2017. A new season of the TV show came and went without a trace of the novel.

I'm not sure if anybody even forecast it in 2018, but they seem to have been wrong too. We shouldn't rule it out entirely, but there's very little year left and the book needs at least a few months to come out after the script is finished, so yeah, no book in 2018.

By now, 2019 appears to be one of the many years that could become the right one. It's like playing the roulette. Sure, the ball could land on '19. Could also be '26. Somewhere in there. Just as long as it doesn't fly off the table entirely.

[Nevets]

8 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

Welp, I'm bored, so, I'll go back to the original topic, of when the author lost control of the material, and I will always believe it was the abandonment of the 5 year gap, so many people say it was unworkable, but I don't see that.

Arya: would have been in Essos training, we meet her again as a teenager.

Bran: would have been in the cave, or we could meet him after he's back from the far North, and been hiding out with wildlings, he's also a teenager.

Sansa: would have spent 5 years in the Vale as Alayne, this doesn't work quite as well, as it might seem likely that she would have been found out by then, but the Eyrie is not very accessible so it still works, this would also facilitate the introduction of Sansa the player, where a more mature version of her character would make sense, not the strange few paragraph transformation we got in Alayne.

Rickon:  has been with osha, comes back.

Jon:  he's been LC, and has been doing deals with the wildlings for 5 years, culminating finally in the events of Dance, where his men mutiny, I'm sure the author could have come up with a convincing version of events where it took 5 years.

Cersei and Jamie: she rules badly, they become more estranged, in effect, you would have the same story we have gotten only it would be happening 5 years in the future and could end virtually the same place and way.

Brienne:  depending on her end game, she could have been looking for the Starks, given up, gone home, dedicated herself to the small folk, she may never have needed a pov at all and we can simply meet her again when she is needed.

Theon:  Held captive for 5 years, very similar with Cersei and Jamie that we can see the events of Dance happening but they would be happening at the 5 year mark

Roose/Ramsay:  same, they've been ruling the North, creating havoc, and we come back when the North is ready to boil over.

Aegon/Arienne..we may never have needed them without the gap at all, depending again on their role in the endgame, they can remain secondary players, no povs needed.

Dany/Selmy:  ruling in essos, this gives her time to fix slaver's bay economy and then leave for Westeros. If we must have Dothraki chapters, then start there, start with her last chapter in Dance as being at the 5 year mark and go from there

Tyrion:  has been knocking around essos for 5 years, I didn't find his exploits that interesting, we can have a flashback to his arrival there, and then a short summary of whatever, then he meets Dany and we're off.

Stannis:  he is the biggest problem, but he could have a back story that he went to Essos for a couple of years, then went to the Wall and we can meet him again around the end of Dance, but its happening at the 5 year mark, so we would still have the battle for Winterfell, alternatively, we can pick up after that battle.

Vic//Damphair: no povs needed, if Dany needs the fleet, give it to her as the backstory

**This took me about 15 minutes**  By my reckoning this would keep about 25 to 30% of what was written for Feast and Dance but allow for a huge amount of forward momentum since we would not have spent those books running in place with almost every character. We would have bypassed Brienne's pointless wanderings, Dany's repetitive failures, Arya's training, we can get the highlights in flashback, Bran's going North, Tyrion's travels, and so on,

Stannis is a huge problem, as it's abundantly clear that he is not going to sit still for 5 years, or anywhere close to it.  You can spend time in Essos raising funds and sellswords,, but that probably wouldn't use up 5 years.

The Wall and Kings Landing are also problems.  Jon and Cersei are going to be doing quite a bit in their respective ruling spots, and doing flashbacks becomes complicated.  As I recall, the excessive number of flashbacks needed was the reason Martin gave for abandoning the idea.

In any event, I don't think chucking the 5 year gap is the problem.  The biggest problem that it created is the youth and lack of development of the younger characters, and I think he can probably find a way to write around that problem, essentially by speeding things up.  Creating a gap or gaps amounting to about 2 years or so would help, as well.

The main problem is the multiplicity of story lines.  The story was already complex enough in Swords, and then he goes and makes it even more complicated, what with the Ironborn, Dorne, Aegon, the Faceless Men, and the like.  He has 20 (!) POV characters, and if you think you can fit 20 POVs into 80 or so chapters, think again.  I've tried, and it isn't pretty.  He probably has 100 or so chapters of story to tell, and only 80 chapters to put it in, so something has got to give.  As he seems to be unwilling to throw any of his children stories overboard, what has given way is completion.  He needs to do some serious pruning of his garden, and decide what is important and what isn't, and act accordingly.

[Rhodan]

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

As I recall, the excessive number of flashbacks needed was the reason Martin gave for abandoning the idea.

Yeah, people are fogetting about this thing very often. It boils to the fact that some things would have to develop and then be explained, while other would have to stay unnaturaly unchanged, neither was exactly easy to implement.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

BFish is speculating that GRRM has, in fact, written too much material for TWoW (which is why he thought he could finish it in 2015) and is struggling to fit it into a single book, the same way he was forced to remove the battles of Meereen and the North from ADWD, for example. That's another way to look at it.

[Rhodan]

3 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

BFish is speculating that GRRM has, in fact, written too much material for TWoW (which is why he thought he could finish it in 2015) and is struggling to fit it into a single book, the same way he was forced to remove the battles of Meereen and the North from ADWD, for example. That's another way to look at it.

Even in that case, it´s still the similar issue. He has hard time to actually bring the things to climax

[Ser Wun Wun]

New Martin Interview

He says he's not sure if he'll go straight into writing ADOS after WInds or stop to do F&B II or another D&E.  Or two.

 

[Cas Stark]

2 hours ago, Ser Wun Wun said:

New Martin Interview

He says he's not sure if he'll go straight into writing ADOS after WInds or stop to do F&B II or another D&E.  Or two.

 

It doesn't sound  like he's doing any of that streamlining that conventional wisdom says is necessary to regain forward momentum, and regain control of the material, he also says he spent YEARS on Fire and Blood, so maybe we can finally put to bed the idea that Fire and Blood hasn't taken up significant time.

“I’ve been struggling with it for a few years,” he told the Guardian. “The Winds of Winter is not so much a novel as a dozen novels, each with a different protagonist, each having a different cast of supporting players, antagonists, allies and lovers around them, and all of these weaving together against the march of time in an extremely complex fashion. So it’s very, very challenging. Fire and Blood by contrast was very simple. Not that it’s easy – it still took me years to put together – but it is easier.”

[D-Shiznit]

It pretty evident that he has no interest in finishing this series. I'll bet you anything that after Season 8 ends, he'll come out and say that he's done writing the main series, and the show ending is the only ending.

[Rhodan]

I´ve said it in the past and I´ll say it again. George Martin has became crazy (and fallen) athor akin to George Lucas. And I don´t mean it in any disrespect when I´ll say that nowadays Fantasy subculture shows it´s weakness of connection with "soft" mental problems. Evident not just with Martin but also with Lynch and Rothfuss.

[RhaegoTheUnborn]

After the interview with The Guardian, which I read today, I no longer believe he'll ever finish this book. And I think his own imagination clearly got in the way. It happens to writers often, especially in a series, some of them may plan things out and envision things on such an epic scale, and then when you decide to write it down it just doesnt translate for whatever reason. He says writing Fire & Blood were simpler to write, well duh, it's all based off his own material that simply didn't make it into the previous books.

[Cas Stark]

27 minutes ago, RhaegoTheUnborn said:

After the interview with The Guardian, which I read today, I no longer believe he'll ever finish this book. And I think his own imagination clearly got in the way. It happens to writers often, especially in a series, some of them may plan things out and envision things on such an epic scale, and then when you decide to write it down it just doesnt translate for whatever reason. He says writing Fire & Blood were simpler to write, well duh, it's all based off his own material that simply didn't make it into the previous books.

I agree, I'm surprised that interview isn't getting more comments, I thought it was pretty newsworthy in terms of where he is/isn't with Winds; but yeah, there is a good chance he never even gets Winds out, and based on his own comments about 'a dozen different novels' contained in Winds, it doesn't sound like he's doing the pruning that is needed to regain control, momentum and even have a chance of finishing the story in seven books total.  

 

[Three-Fingered Pete]

It sounds to me that if we're lucky Winds will get us where Feast/Dance should have and we'll still be too far away to finish it in one book.

[nickdt]

On 11/10/2018 at 7:57 PM, Ser Wun Wun said:

New Martin Interview

He says he's not sure if he'll go straight into writing ADOS after WInds or stop to do F&B II or another D&E.  Or two.

 

Unless he is messing with us and is already done with the whole series but waits until the show is finished so he can shit on it with the official canon material.

[T and A]

11 hours ago, nickdt said:

Unless he is messing with us and is already done with the whole series but waits until the show is finished so he can shit on it with the official canon material.

Those "hopes" are just sad. I read it a lot here, and I can not even make fun of it. People who often believe those "theories" are huge fans and have waited for years and years. And they are grabing everything that keeps their hopes alive. Acceptance is hard sometimes, especially if you have waited for years. 

But it does not make sense. GRRM is selling the ideas to television. He makes gazillions of Dollars with his storys. Now he continues with "The long night" after GOT is finished. It makes no sense for him to piss off his mainpartner for no particular reason. 

[DaveSumm]

On 11/11/2018 at 7:27 AM, D-Shiznit said:

It pretty evident that he has no interest in finishing this series. I'll bet you anything that after Season 8 ends, he'll come out and say that he's done writing the main series, and the show ending is the only ending.

I’ll take that bet. How does $1M sound? You said anything.

Always good for a laugh these threads. “You can tell by the way he said ‘I’m still working on it and it’s my main focus and I fully intend to finish this series’ that he obviously isn’t working on it and isn’t his main focus and doesn’t intend to finish the series.” Totally.

[Kyll.Ing.]

On 11/9/2018 at 1:44 PM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

BFish is speculating that GRRM has, in fact, written too much material for TWoW (which is why he thought he could finish it in 2015) and is struggling to fit it into a single book, the same way he was forced to remove the battles of Meereen and the North from ADWD, for example. That's another way to look at it.

If so, his editors would probably just make a book out of the chapters and get it released as quickly as possible. If they had the luxury of enough material to fill a book and a half, they probably wouldn't wait for Martin to write another half book and then sort it into two neat piles. Just as long as some storylines could end on cliffhangers, it wouldn't matter much if others are cut mid-stride. It happened in ADwD, it could be tolerated again.

And by the way, as this thread nears the end of its twentieth page and thus its lifespan (which is a highly disagreeable forum rule, it has to be said), I have to say this to the moderators: It is clear that a TWoW writing progress thread is in demand at any time. It can exist without descending into chaos. Of all the things that could be talked about concerning the upcoming sixth book in the series, its very existence is a topic worthy of discussing. We all have our thoughts and concerns about TWoW's progress, and would both like to share them and to hear what others have to say. Please allow another thread to be created to discuss this issue (or let this one continue, there's really no reason to stop after 20 pages, I've never seen another forum do that nor an adequate explanation for why it's done here). It is, to be blunt, the only discussion that keeps this subforum active.

[Kyll.Ing.]

(del)

[RhaegoTheUnborn]

15 hours ago, DaveSumm said:

I’ll take that bet. How does $1M sound? You said anything.

Always good for a laugh these threads. “You can tell by the way he said ‘I’m still working on it and it’s my main focus and I fully intend to finish this series’ that he obviously isn’t working on it and isn’t his main focus and doesn’t intend to finish the series.” Totally.

Who said all that? I believe people have justifiable reasoning for thinking the book will never be finished. His own words , identifying the struggle he's going through with TWOW, is just one thing that adds credence to that theory.