What do you think caused Martin to loose his grip on the material?

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

5 hours ago, sifth said:

To be fair, can't we also blame this on the abandonment of the time skip as well. George's style of writing is nothing comes easy, so without out the time skip he needed to come up with some type of conflict for Dany to face in Meereen.................I just think he might have gotten a little out of hand with just how much conflict he created for her and as a result we have the mess we are currently facing in slavers bay.

My entire theory premises on the idea that the change in Dany's plot is primarily what made not skipping the 5 years necessary.

If Dany's story is about how she successfully navigated the Meereen political scene and is ready to invade Westeros at the beginning of ADWD, then you can skip the 5 year process and just address some important plot points in some flashback scenes.   But if her story is about the failures of intervensionism and cultural imperialism. Then you can't have her ready to invade at the beging of ADWD, because if she is ready to invade then it hasn't been a failure at all.

 So you have to tell the whole story of her quagmire and how she gets out of it (or runs from it).    

Everything really crystalized for me the other day when I realized what the real Meereenese knot was, because it became clear to me that he never solved it in ADWD, and the reason he's struggling with TWOW is that he's still trying to solve it. The real Meereenese knot is that he became enamored with the quagmire cautionary tale, which casted his protagonist Dany in the antagonist role, and now he can't get her back into the protagonist that the reader can root for and a hero for that Final Act. 

[M.Alhazred]

I think that since the success of the show the editorial team and publishers have become a bit star struck with GRRM they don't wanna upset the goose that lays the golden eggs.So,they allowed the missed deadlines in fear that if they push he'll just up and leave for another publishing house.It's somewhat encouraging that he seems to be making progress on Winds.

[The Coconut God]

George cited Jon, Stannis and Cersei as the main culprits for the 5 year gap not working.

Jon and Stannis because that would have meant nothing happened at the Wall for 5 years. After the urgency of Mance's invasion, it would have made little sense for winter and the Others to wait that long. And if the Others were going to start showing up more gradually, it would have been strange to maintain the plot point of the rest of the realm not knowing about them. I suppose Stannis could have used that time to take the North from the Boltons, but it would have been unsatisfying not to read through that, and it would have raised other questions, such as why aren't the Lannisters trying to attack him.

Cersei, I suspect, was going to be in such a wildly different position that it would have taken chapters and chapters of characters remembering and talking about past stuff to explain everything. I don't think she's quite there yet now. Judging by the Forsaken preview chapter, an alliance with Euron is likely in the cards for her (which is what will solve the Faith Militant problem), so imagine the post-gap story would have started with Cersei married to Euron, who would have been an entirely new character at that point. Kind of clunky.

Dany posed a problem with removing the gap, not the other way around. She would have been fine 5 years later with grown dragons and some experience as a ruler. Without the gap, though, the story had to continue from her clearly stated decision that she would attempt to rule Meereen. It would have been uncharacteristic of George to retcon that. Sure, the war in Iraq may have influenced the specific of that story, but it's not the reason for the change (Vietnam would have already inspired him if he wanted to write about dodgy American wars).

My not-so-crackpot-but-far-from-certain theory is that George decided to shift the endgame from the South to Essos and have the Others take all of Westeros instead of just the North as a way to offset the extra time Dany had to spend in Meereen (and Arya in Braavos) due to the removal of the gap. This is why there are plenty of potential hints for an Exodus in Feast and Dance, but none really in the previous books.

It's hard to tell if Aegon was always going to be a character or if he was introduced as a replacement for Dany because some plot lines still required a Targaryen invasion on Westeros. The "cloth dragon swaying on poles amidst a cheering crowd" seems to suggest he was planned all along, but then again George would have made sure his new character resonated with something from the previous books.

[sifth]

3 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

George cited Jon, Stannis and Cersei as the main culprits for the 5 year gap not working.

Jon and Stannis because that would have meant nothing happened at the Wall for 5 years. After the urgency of Mance's invasion, it would have made little sense for winter and the Others to wait that long. And if the Others were going to start showing up more gradually, it would have been strange to maintain the plot point of the rest of the realm not knowing about them. I suppose Stannis could have used that time to take the North from the Boltons, but it would have been unsatisfying not to read through that, and it would have raised other questions, such as why aren't the Lannisters trying to attack him.

Cersei, I suspect, was going to be in such a wildly different position that it would have taken chapters and chapters of characters remembering and talking about past stuff to explain everything. I don't think she's quite there yet now. Judging by the Forsaken preview chapter, an alliance with Euron is likely in the cards for her (which is what will solve the Faith Militant problem), so imagine the post-gap story would have started with Cersei married to Euron, who would have been an entirely new character at that point. Kind of clunky.

Dany posed a problem with removing the gap, not the other way around. She would have been fine 5 years later with grown dragons and some experience as a ruler. Without the gap, though, the story had to continue from her clearly stated decision that she would attempt to rule Meereen. It would have been uncharacteristic of George to retcon that. Sure, the war in Iraq may have influenced the specific of that story, but it's not the reason for the change (Vietnam would have already inspired him if he wanted to write about dodgy American wars).

My not-so-crackpot-but-far-from-certain theory is that George decided to shift the endgame from the South to Essos and have the Others take all of Westeros instead of just the North as a way to offset the extra time Dany had to spend in Meereen (and Arya in Braavos) due to the removal of the gap. This is why there are plenty of potential hints for an Exodus in Feast and Dance, but none really in the previous books.

It's hard to tell if Aegon was always going to be a character or if he was introduced as a replacement for Dany because some plot lines still required a Targaryen invasion on Westeros. The "cloth dragon swaying on poles amidst a cheering crowd" seems to suggest he was planned all along, but then again George would have made sure his new character resonated with something from the previous books.

Funny you mention Cercie, because I honestly think she's more to blame then Jon and Stannis. I often think that had George not killed off Balon and Tywin, the 5 year gap could have worked. For example with Balon still alive, the Ironborn remain in the North, along with Roose Bolton's forces, which results in a 3 way struggle, that in theory could last 5 years. With Tywin still alive, the Iron Throne has a leader who's not insane and very smart, so therefore things in Kings Landing shouldn't be falling apart as quickly as they did under Circie's wise and true leadership, ha ha ha

As for The Others, well the fact that they didn't even show up in ADWD and AFFC's pretty much creates the same effect as them not showing up in 5 years, so what's really the point of saying "there almost here" and then ship over them doing anything important for two massive books.

[The Coconut God]

38 minutes ago, sifth said:

Funny you mention Cercie, because I honestly think she's more to blame then Jon and Stannis. I often think that had George not killed off Balon and Tywin, the 5 year gap could have worked. For example with Balon still alive, the Ironborn remain in the North, along with Roose Bolton's forces, which results in a 3 way struggle, that in theory could last 5 years. With Tywin still alive, the Iron Throne has a leader who's not insane and very smart, so therefore things in Kings Landing shouldn't be falling apart as quickly as they did under Circie's wise and true leadership, ha ha ha

But things had to fall apart in King's Landing. And I don't think this is just about showing us some random craziness that is going on with Cersei. It's about getting us to some very particular circumstances that are necessary for the Long Night endgame, and doing so in a seamless and believable way.

Euron has a very important role to play, and George knew this since he first mentioned him in ACoK. He is the one human character who welcomes the Long Night and the death of Westeros and wants to use it to fuel his own power. He knows blood magic, he has a huge fleet, he's going to steal a dragon. His role will be crucial, at least thematically.

I believe the original ADwD was going to start with Euron as regent, or at least with an ongoing situation that would have led to Cersei marrying Euron very soon, something that will now happen in TWoW. But George probably realized that Euron would feel like a character he had pulled out of his ass in spite of the brief mentions he gets in previous books, and decided that readers would have to see the whole story unfold, with the Kingsmoot and the whole series of events in King's Landing. They may seem random, but there's a causal chain in there. Tywin's death leads to tensions between Cersei and the Tyrells, those tensions lead to Cersei allowing the Faith Militant to form, which leads to the Faith Militant dominating King's Landing, which will likely lead to Cersei having no choice but to ally herself with Euron, the dude who likes to torture priests and offer them as blood sacrifice. Even Aurane Waters plays into this, as a potential trophy for Euron to bring Cersei when he arrives in King's Landing.

1 hour ago, sifth said:

As for The Others, well the fact that they didn't even show up in ADWD and AFFC's pretty much creates the same effect as them not showing up in 5 years, so what's really the point of saying "there almost here" and then ship over them doing anything important for two massive books.

A few months are not the same as 5 years. It wasn't winter yet at the end of ASoS, and if it isn't winter with heavy, down cast skies, the Others can only come out at night.

The key event that had to happen in between ASoS and the Others coming in full force was Jon's decision to allow the wildlings to pass through the Wall. And you can't drag that over 5 years. If it happens early, then you can assume Jon had plenty of time to stabilize the situation. Why would his fellow night's watchmen assassinate him at that point? And how come nobody captured a whight or ten to send to the great lords as proof of the Others? In ADwD, Jon at least tries to have a few corpses ready in case they come back to life. And if it happens late, then why was Mance in such a hurry? And how will Stannis deal with it? Or the Night's Watch? Won't people start to doubt the threat was real?

[divica]

40 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

But things had to fall apart in King's Landing. And I don't think this is just about showing us some random craziness that is going on with Cersei. It's about getting us to some very particular circumstances that are necessary for the Long Night endgame, and doing so in a seamless and believable way.

Euron has a very important role to play, and George knew this since he first mentioned him in ACoK. He is the one human character who welcomes the Long Night and the death of Westeros and wants to use it to fuel his own power. He knows blood magic, he has a huge fleet, he's going to steal a dragon. His role will be crucial, at least thematically.

I believe the original ADwD was going to start with Euron as regent, or at least with an ongoing situation that would have led to Cersei marrying Euron very soon, something that will now happen in TWoW. But George probably realized that Euron would feel like a character he had pulled out of his ass in spite of the brief mentions he gets in previous books, and decided that readers would have to see the whole story unfold, with the Kingsmoot and the whole series of events in King's Landing. They may seem random, but there's a causal chain in there. Tywin's death leads to tensions between Cersei and the Tyrells, those tensions lead to Cersei allowing the Faith Militant to form, which leads to the Faith Militant dominating King's Landing, which will likely lead to Cersei having no choice but to ally herself with Euron, the dude who likes to torture priests and offer them as blood sacrifice. Even Aurane Waters plays into this, as a potential trophy for Euron to bring Cersei when he arrives in King's Landing.

That theory is based on the fact that euron would want to marry cersei or that the 2 together would be able to keep the IT. I am sorry, but if the lannisters lose the tyrells then they lose the IT. Besides, Euron knows about danny, about her dragons and that she may be able to bring an army to westeros. Why would he align himself with a sinking ship called cersei?

Just because euron is interested in her in the show doesn t mean he will be in the books. If cersei is too old to give him sons then he definetly won t waste his time on her. And how many lords and smallfolk would rebel against cersei if she marries euron that is known burn priest? The problem with dealing with the faith is that it can't become public that the person is acting against the faith.

48 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

A few months are not the same as 5 years. It wasn't winter yet at the end of ASoS, and if it isn't winter with heavy, down cast skies, the Others can only come out at night.

The key event that had to happen in between ASoS and the Others coming in full force was Jon's decision to allow the wildlings to pass through the Wall. And you can't drag that over 5 years. If it happens early, then you can assume Jon had plenty of time to stabilize the situation. Why would his fellow night's watchmen assassinate him at that point? And how come nobody captured a whight or ten to send to the great lords as proof of the Others? In ADwD, Jon at least tries to have a few corpses ready in case they come back to life. And if it happens late, then why was Mance in such a hurry? And how will Stannis deal with it? Or the Night's Watch? Won't people start to doubt the threat was real?

I don t get why the others need a timetable to attack the Wall. We have no idea abot their numbers, plans or limitations. If they can only come out when there isn t light it is very normal that they won t do much until the height of winter and nobody really knows how seasons work in westeros. Is there a big diference between the biguining of winter and autumn?

I think the main event that had to happen was the stabbing and not passing the wildlings. We don t need to know how the wildlings passed through the Wall, it could simply be told that they passed and that there are hostages. However if jon did that sucessfully and strenghtend the watch that much then his position in the watch should be very stable and secure and with more sightings of others the watch would become even more harmonious.

Even stannis might not be that difficult to deal with. If he doesn t defeat the Boltons there are several ways to deal with his story with a time skip. He only becomes a problem if he is sucessful.

[The Coconut God]

20 minutes ago, divica said:

That theory is based on the fact that euron would want to marry cersei or that the 2 together would be able to keep the IT. I am sorry, but if the lannisters lose the tyrells then they lose the IT. Besides, Euron knows about danny, about her dragons and that she may be able to bring an army to westeros. Why would he align himself with a sinking ship called cersei?

Just because euron is interested in her in the show doesn t mean he will be in the books. If cersei is too old to give him sons then he definetly won t waste his time on her. And how many lords and smallfolk would rebel against cersei if she marries euron that is known burn priest? The problem with dealing with the faith is that it can't become public that the person is acting against the faith.

Euron marrying Cersei doesn't mean he is fully committed to her, or to the kingdom for that matter. He would do it to gain easy access to King's Landing and to boost his image with his Ironborn. It wouldn't matter if the kingdom is split between rebels and pretenders and he only has control over the capital, in the eyes of his people he would be the de facto King of Westeros. Cersei and Tommen would be entirely disposable as soon as Dany shows up (if she even does), but that doesn't mean Euron won't play the smooth guy at first, as he usually does. Have you read the Forsaken chapter? Did you notice how he treated Falia Flowers? Consider that the prototype for his relationship with Cersei.

P.S. - Now that I think about it, I totally expect a scene where Cersei finally challenges Euron, tells him he only has his power by the grace of Tommen, and Euron, knowing full well it's his soldiers who control the city, just grabs Tommen and throws him out a window to make a point. That would be poetic. And horrible... but mostly poetic. Calling it now. "Ser Pounce" would never sound the same on re-reads.

43 minutes ago, divica said:

I don t get why the others need a timetable to attack the Wall. We have no idea abot their numbers, plans or limitations. If they can only come out when there isn t light it is very normal that they won t do much until the height of winter and nobody really knows how seasons work in westeros. Is there a big diference between the biguining of winter and autumn?

 I think the main event that had to happen was the stabbing and not passing the wildlings. We don t need to know how the wildlings passed through the Wall, it could simply be told that they passed and that there are hostages. However if jon did that sucessfully and strenghtend the watch that much then his position in the watch should be very stable and secure and with more sightings of others the watch would become even more harmonious.

It's not that he has to show it, but that it would feel contrived if this is the only thing that happens within a span of 5 years. I'm not saying that, George is. I don't have time to look for the article right now so you'll have to take my word for it, but the way he explained it was more or less: "Jon Snow was elected Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. Nothing else happened for 5 years, then things started happening again." This didn't work for him (and I completely agree for what it's worth).

[Cas Stark]

We've already had the Others do almost nothing for 5 books.  I understand that some of the storylines, I don't agree on Cersei having been a problem, given the Lannister's wealth and power, 5 years actually sounds about right from a real world perspective for it to take an ensconced ruler to completely ruin things..., but for Jon and Stannis, yes those were problems, but were they really bigger problems than the 'solution' which has mired the story in day to day actions, moving it forward barely at all, so the real problem, of the Stark children growing to at least their teens, remains.  Arya is like still 11 or 12 in the Mercy chapter.  

Jon Snow was elected LC of the NW, and for 5 years he worked to improve security at the wall and manage the wildlings, all of which created much mistrust, leading to his eventual assassination. All George needed there was some kind of penultimate decision that sent NW guys over the edge.

[The Coconut God]

17 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

We've already had the Others do almost nothing for 5 books.  I understand that some of the storylines, I don't agree on Cersei having been a problem, given the Lannister's wealth and power, 5 years actually sounds about right from a real world perspective for it to take an ensconced ruler to completely ruin things..., but for Jon and Stannis, yes those were problems, but were they really bigger problems than the 'solution' which has mired the story in day to day actions, moving it forward barely at all, so the real problem, of the Stark children growing to at least their teens, remains.  Arya is like still 11 or 12 in the Mercy chapter.  

Jon Snow was elected LC of the NW, and for 5 years he worked to improve security at the wall and manage the wildlings, all of which created much mistrust, leading to his eventual assassination. All George needed there was some kind of penultimate decision that sent NW guys over the edge.

If Jon has 5 years to consolidate security, that begs the question why he and Stannis couldn't capture some wights to provide proof to various lords and unite them all against this threat. The fact that the realm is ignoring this threat because it's too busy focusing on petty conflicts is as huge theme of the series. Giving Westeros another 5 years, which is double the amount of time that passed in the series so far, greatly invalidates the role the Wot5K played in leaving the realm exposed, and events such as Tyrion delaying Alliser Thorne's audience until the wight hand decays fall flat.

The same can be said about the wasted food stores. 5 years is plenty of time to plant more crops and even recover the livestock populations. Even the fighting force would be somewhat replenished by the kinds growing up during that time.

If anything, you can argue George should have realized a lot earlier that the gap was a dodgy idea. That way he could have avoided committing himself to giving Dany and Arya their "learning detours" that are now delaying them from getting to whatever their main story lines may be. The ages, I think, are ultimately a minor issue. Worst case scenario he can't give Arya a love interest towards the end of the story, but it's not like people were screaming for that.

[Cas Stark]

7 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

If Jon has 5 years to consolidate security, that begs the question why he and Stannis couldn't capture some wights to provide proof to various lords and unite them all against this threat. The fact that the realm is ignoring this threat because it's too busy focusing on petty conflicts is as huge theme of the series. Giving Westeros another 5 years, which is double the amount of time that passed in the series so far, greatly invalidates the role the Wot5K played in leaving the realm exposed, and events such as Tyrion delaying Alliser Thorne's audience until the wight hand decays fall flat.

The same can be said about the wasted food stores. 5 years is plenty of time to plant more crops and even recover the livestock populations. Even the fighting force would be somewhat replenished by the kinds growing up during that time.

If anything, you can argue George should have realized a lot earlier that the gap was a dodgy idea. That way he could have avoided committing himself to giving Dany and Arya their "learning detours" that are now delaying them from getting to whatever their main story lines may be. The ages, I think, are ultimately a minor issue. Worst case scenario he can't give Arya a love interest towards the end of the story, but it's not like people were screaming for that.

They can't plant crops in winter in the north.  As far as getting help from the South, with Cersei on the throne, I'd expect her to act much as she did in the show, to ignore anything that didn't specifically relate to her own current needs and desires.  George could also have adjusted story, maybe Jon isn't LC for 5 years, maybe only 1 or 2 years, since it would all be done in flashbacks.  

I can't agree the gap was a bad idea, it's the only way, as we can see now, with how the story ground to a halt, to get the main characters to the ages he wants for the ending.  It seems clear though that the author needed to really think through the ENTIRE story to the end when he was writing Feast and Dance after abandoning the gap, and it certainly looks like he didn't do any of that, which is probably why Winds is still not finished, because he still hasn't resolved how he's getting to the third act of the story in the timeline he has chosen and is now stuck with.  He is also now stuck with a serious pacing issue, having ground the story to a halt, it will be a jolt to the reader if the pace is too fast, which means, he's boxed in to the tedious levels of detail we saw in Feast and Dance to some degree.

[divica]

43 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

We've already had the Others do almost nothing for 5 books.  I understand that some of the storylines, I don't agree on Cersei having been a problem, given the Lannister's wealth and power, 5 years actually sounds about right from a real world perspective for it to take an ensconced ruler to completely ruin things..., but for Jon and Stannis, yes those were problems, but were they really bigger problems than the 'solution' which has mired the story in day to day actions, moving it forward barely at all, so the real problem, of the Stark children growing to at least their teens, remains.  Arya is like still 11 or 12 in the Mercy chapter.  

Jon Snow was elected LC of the NW, and for 5 years he worked to improve security at the wall and manage the wildlings, all of which created much mistrust, leading to his eventual assassination. All George needed there was some kind of penultimate decision that sent NW guys over the edge.

I agree that cersei isn t really a problem and it would be interesting to see how a more grown up tommen would deal with her and marge.

But you have to take into account the we are talking about 100K wildlings. Even if only 10 or 20K were saved it would change the watch greatly and make it impossible for the original NW to do much about it. And I just remembered robb's will and the northern lords that don t want to follow the boltons. The north is kind of full of action at the moment for it to wait for 5 years. We would need some novella to explain to what happened in that time.

But as you said, the lack of time skip ruins a lot of other characters arcs...

[The Coconut God]

37 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I can't agree the gap was a bad idea, it's the only way, as we can see now, with how the story ground to a halt, to get the main characters to the ages he wants for the ending.  It seems clear though that the author needed to really think through the ENTIRE story to the end when he was writing Feast and Dance after abandoning the gap, and it certainly looks like he didn't do any of that, which is probably why Winds is still not finished, because he still hasn't resolved how he's getting to the third act of the story in the timeline he has chosen and is now stuck with.  He is also now stuck with a serious pacing issue, having ground the story to a halt, it will be a jolt to the reader if the pace is too fast, which means, he's boxed in to the tedious levels of detail we saw in Feast and Dance to some degree.

I don't think the story "ground to a halt" because of the gap (or lack thereof), but simply because one major arc ended in ASoS and another one had to begin. ASoS had a ton of huge moments that only worked so well because we had followed those characters through the previous books, and we were familiar enough even with background characters like Lysa to make a big deal out of their deaths. ADwD was always going to be, even with the gap, primarily a set-up volume for the next major arc, and thus a much slower book, with a sizable amount of new characters and situations.

It's very hard for me to imagine that George simply had no clue what he would write in Winds after he released Dance. I do think his post-Wot5K ideas were at most a list of bullet points when he finished ASoS, but that was because of the separate arcs issues. It would be sheer insanity to introduce a character like the Tattered Prince towards the end of a set-up book, have him express a desire to conquer Pentos, and have no idea whatsoever if you want to have Pentos in the story. It's not impossible, but it seems contradictory when compared to how AGoT-ASoS were written.

What I find a lot more believable is that he is iterating a lot on story lines, and perhaps has specific characters he avoids writing about, or isn't sure how to handle. I absolutely think he had Winds in mind when writing Feast and Dance, and now has Dream in mind when writing Winds, since he would want the overall story to feel consistent. Hopefully, that means Dream will be easier to write (or comprehensive enough for us to get the story from his notes, if need be), since at this point he would have had to lock himself into a particular endgame for most characters. I know people bring up the "gardener vs architect" a lot, but gardener doesn't mean clueless. He knows what seeds he's planting and where, but still has to tend to whatever grows from it, or at least that's how I see it.

To give you an example based on my theory, sure, let's say he takes Jon to Braavos and then all the way to Norvos, which will fight Dany because of Mellario. He then has to iterate on whether or not Jon's people will have their own conflict with Norvos. Will they want Dany as an ally because, say, the Norvoshi are trying to enslave them or drive them away? Will they be friendly to Norvos? Will they have a strictly commercial relationship with it, buying food from them while trying to settle a different location? What works best?

Then you have characters like Davos and Asha. Sure, he knows what to do with Jon, Dany, Arya, etc., but what will he use Davos for? Will he stay in Braavos? Will Jon send him to Pentos, to Volantis? Will he send him ahead to Dany? Will he go to the south to rescue his wife and kids, thus serving as a PoV for the Aegon campaign for a while? Will Asha travel back with the fleet to ferry more people? Can she be used as a PoV in the Vale? Should she be captured by Euron? If yes, should she get away at some point and end up somewhere else? If yes, when, where and how?

What kind of information needs to be revealed before X happens and who can do that in the most interesting way?

That's how I imagine his process works. That would explain why he can claim he's a few months away one moment and not know when he will finish three years later. He's scrapping old iterations because he wants it to be "perfect" (which may or may not be the best idea, he may be scrapping amazing chapters for all we know).

[Three-Fingered Pete]

2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

P.S. - Now that I think about it, I totally expect a scene where Cersei finally challenges Euron, tells him he only has his power by the grace of Tommen, and Euron, knowing full well it's his soldiers who control the city, just grabs Tommen and throws him out a window to make a point. That would be poetic. And horrible... but mostly poetic. Calling it now. "Ser Pounce" would never sound the same on re-reads.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again. You have pure ice milk at the center of your nut Coco. You have the heart of an Other!

[The Coconut God]

14 minutes ago, Trefayne said:

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again. You have pure ice milk at the center of your nut Coco. You have the heart of an Other!

I'm just trying to imagine what George would write!

[sifth]

2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Euron marrying Cersei doesn't mean he is fully committed to her, or to the kingdom for that matter. He would do it to gain easy access to King's Landing and to boost his image with his Ironborn. It wouldn't matter if the kingdom is split between rebels and pretenders and he only has control over the capital, in the eyes of his people he would be the de facto King of Westeros. Cersei and Tommen would be entirely disposable as soon as Dany shows up (if she even does), but that doesn't mean Euron won't play the smooth guy at first, as he usually does. Have you read the Forsaken chapter? Did you notice how he treated Falia Flowers? Consider that the prototype for his relationship with Cersei.

P.S. - Now that I think about it, I totally expect a scene where Cersei finally challenges Euron, tells him he only has his power by the grace of Tommen, and Euron, knowing full well it's his soldiers who control the city, just grabs Tommen and throws him out a window to make a point. That would be poetic. And horrible... but mostly poetic. Calling it now. "Ser Pounce" would never sound the same on re-reads.

It's not that he has to show it, but that it would feel contrived if this is the only thing that happens within a span of 5 years. I'm not saying that, George is. I don't have time to look for the article right now so you'll have to take my word for it, but the way he explained it was more or less: "Jon Snow was elected Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. Nothing else happened for 5 years, then things started happening again." This didn't work for him (and I completely agree for what it's worth).

 

Yes nothing seems to be happening with Jon as LC for all of two dictionary sized books, so again I don't see the difference of nothing happening with them for 5 years. At least we would be able to see events happen. Man those Others sure our taking their time. Literally Jon's final character is the only time in ADWD when the events at the wall didn't feel like spinning wheels. George is going to have to try really hard to convince me that the majority of Jon's ADWD chapters weren't a waste of time, just to create a reason for Jon to be stabbed.

[The Coconut God]

Just now, sifth said:

Yes nothing seems to be happening with Jon as LC for all of two dictionary sized books, so again I dodn't see the difference of nothing happening with them for 5 years. At least we would be able to see events happen. Man those Others sure our taking their time. Literally Jon's final character is the only time in ADWD when the events at the wall didn't feel like spinning wheels. George is going to have to try really hard to convince me that the majority of Jon's ADWD chapters weren't a waste of time, just to create a reason for Jon to be stabbed.

*One dictionary sized book. AFFC was a result of adding Cersei, the Ironborn and the Dornish as PoVs, but it happens at the same time as ADwD. I consider them a single chunk of the story, just with more characters due to the maximum spread of locations.

It wouldn't have made sense for the Others to arrive immediately after Mance. It's an urgent situation, but not THAT urgent. Jon required a bit of growth, and he had to allow some of the wildlings through the Wall himself, otherwise his role would have been meaningless and they would have had no reason to be loyal to him as opposed to Stannis, who was the first one to let them in. I get the feeling you underestimate the importance of Jon's relationship with the wildlings because you would have been ready to accept their alliance implicitly, based on the "good guys always work together" cliche.

Best case scenario, with proper pacing, not rapid fire plot points just for the sake of stuff happening, the Others could have invaded at the very end of Dance. I would argue end of Dance vs start of Winds is not that big of a difference. It's better for the sake of pacing to have the Battle of Ice before the invasion, so you can enjoy Winterfell being taken back by the good guys for a second before everything turns to shit and the North is lost for good.

[HexMachina]

Can't remember if I posted this before or typed it then deleted it, but I think a five year gap would have suited Cersei and Dany's stories pretty well. Common criticisms of both are how OTT awful Cersei is and how Dany is just one disaster after another. If those events are spread over 5 years it seems less absurd and difficult to comprehend 

[sifth]

33 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

*One dictionary sized book. AFFC was a result of adding Cersei, the Ironborn and the Dornish as PoVs, but it happens at the same time as ADwD. I consider them a single chunk of the story, just with more characters due to the maximum spread of locations.

It wouldn't have made sense for the Others to arrive immediately after Mance. It's an urgent situation, but not THAT urgent. Jon required a bit of growth, and he had to allow some of the wildlings through the Wall himself, otherwise his role would have been meaningless and they would have had no reason to be loyal to him as opposed to Stannis, who was the first one to let them in. I get the feeling you underestimate the importance of Jon's relationship with the wildlings because you would have been ready to accept their alliance implicitly, based on the "good guys always work together" cliche.

I would imagine survival would be a proper motivator over "the good guys always work together".

 

The problem with your theory is, we in all likelihood wont get an Others invasion at the start of the next book, because we're going to have to deal with all of that crap with Jon coming back to life and those minor villains Roose and Ramsay, who in a properly paced story would be dead by now. For the record and know both characters are fan favorites, but I just don't see either one being a major player, unless George really loses focus on the story and keeps those two yoyo's alive from A Dream of Spring.

[Cas Stark]

38 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Can't remember if I posted this before or typed it then deleted it, but I think a five year gap would have suited Cersei and Dany's stories pretty well. Common criticisms of both are how OTT awful Cersei is and how Dany is just one disaster after another. If those events are spread over 5 years it seems less absurd and difficult to comprehend 

I loved the glorious awfulness of Cersei, and thought it was the only real 'arc' that even existed in Feast, everything else was random snipets of whatever.  I would always think that turning Dany into such a massive, ridiculous failure+her emotionally driven decision making was a strange choice for her unless her end is one of death/sacrifice, if she is to end as a hero, then it was really inexplicable.  I also, but that is just personal taste, was really bored by Meereen, and Dany's choices made me dislike her, where I already hated Cersei, so was entertained by her failure and self delusion.

PS...I would recommend anyone who doesn't think the pace of Feast slowed to a crawl should reread the first 100 pages of GOT in comparison to Feast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Coconut God]

1 hour ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Can't remember if I posted this before or typed it then deleted it, but I think a five year gap would have suited Cersei and Dany's stories pretty well. Common criticisms of both are how OTT awful Cersei is and how Dany is just one disaster after another. If those events are spread over 5 years it seems less absurd and difficult to comprehend 

I think a valid criticism would be that George could have easily extended the overall timeline by 50-100% without losing momentum or the sense of realism. Increasing travel and down times here and there would have allowed him to squeeze in a year or two to add to the children's ages. But then again he was banking on the gap and probably didn't want to overdo-it. I would favor an official retcon that increases the length of the Wot5K by a year (changing the Purple Wedding from the 300th year of Aegon's Conquest to 301 turn of the century) and the events of Feast/Dance by at least 6 months.

1 hour ago, sifth said:

The problem with your theory is, we in all likelihood wont get an Others invasion at the start of the next book, because we're going to have to deal with all of that crap with Jon coming back to life and those minor villains Roose and Ramsay, who in a properly paced story would be dead by now. For the record and know both characters are fan favorites, but I just don't see either one being a major player, unless George really loses focus on the story and keeps those two yoyo's alive from A Dream of Spring.

Obviously the Battle of Ice would play out first, but it is feasible to have the invasion soon after. The way I imagine it is something like this:

1. Battle at the Frozen Lakes happens, Stannis's forces win. This happens prior to Jon's last ADwD chapter, but they are presented out of order for dramatic tension.

2. Stannis's forces feign defeat as a ruse to get inside Winterfell. The Boltons are presented with Lightbringer and heads and Stannis's men enter the castle dressed as Freys. The battle begins just as Ramsay finishes writing the pink letter and he orders it sent before going to see what's going on, hence the wax smudge and lack of seal.

3. Pink letter arrives at Castle Black, Jon is assassinated. Jon's final chapter in ADwD. Note that by this time Tycho, Justin Massey and fArya, who were sent away sometime before the battle, are at Eastwatch or close enough, and will be heading for Braavos.

4. Castle Black is a tinderbox after Jon falls and everything immediately goes to shit. Wildlings and loyal Night's Watchmen butcher Bowen Marsh and his assassins, some watchmen and queen's men desert, others try to take Selise someplace safe. It turns out Jon is on the verge of death, but still hangs on by a thread, which is why he is carried away by a group of loyalists. The PoV here (likely Mel) may or may not follow him to wherever he is taken (likely Karhold, due to the Alys being set up, but he will eventually end up at White Harbor).

5. The Wall is breached immediately after. Maybe same chapter, maybe the one after. No better time than that moment of utter chaos and betrayals, really.

6. First chapter with Stannis at Winterfell. By the end of it, we find out that the Bridge of Skulls was breached by the the army of wights that used to be the Weeper's wildlings, and they spilled into the mountains south of the Wall.

7. Two or three overall chapters focused on Stannis as he stoically prepares to face the Others. We see refugees arrive from the mountain clans, Bear Island and Deepwood Motte, and/or we get ravens from places we know are doomed. In the final hour, Manderly and other northern lords abandon Stannis and decide to take their people and retreat to White Harbor, hoping the wights might not get that far. Stannis goes to battle anyway, true to Donal Noye's assertion that he will break before he bends. His inevitable defeat will do nothing but get even more people killed, basically sealing the fate of the North.

8. Jon, who had been in a coma at White Harbor, finally succumbs to his wounds. It is revealed that the northern lords knew about Robb's will and were hoping to make Jon their king, but now there is no more hope left (even if he lives and they have him, Rickon is too young and feral to lead them against such darkness - "a child lord is the bane of any house"). There was a begrudging peace between the northerners and the wildlings out of loyalty to Jon, but everyone knows it may not last. This is the North's darkest hour. A pyre is built for Jon and he is burned on it to prevent him from turning into a wight. As the fire dies out, Jon emerges from the ashes, alive, mirroring the birth of the dragons at the end of the first volume.

9. Jon is named King of the North and the wildlings, but he realizes too few men are left now to fight the Others. Instead of senselessly sacrificing the survivors in an attempt to hold on to the kingdom, he will bend before breaking and decide to abandon the North, taking all the women, children in White Harbor (and whoever else might fit) away to safety on the Maderly Fleet.

10. The Others swarm the city, climbing over the walls on gigantic snow drifts, and we get an epic battle as Jon's men try to hold them back long enough for the ships to be filled and sail out into the bay.