What do you think caused Martin to loose his grip on the material?

[Damon_Tor]

1 hour ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

The Dreadfort is the one with the volcanic heat source. Winterfell has hot springs and a rather modern system of pipes. So, basically, Winterfell is just a step shy of 21st century indoor plumbing and heating. Dreadfort will be warm but nowhere near as comfortable as Winterfell.

Hot springs are geothermal, which is what I meant by volcanic. Wrong word choice on my part. But you're right, some other castles in the North have geothermal heat sources as well (presumably all of the families who survived the last Long Night) so Winterfell might not be the only holdout.

1 hour ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Winterfell's magical defenses are almost pure speculation and fanfic...but if it's real it seems to revolve around Stark blood. I don't know if you have be a patrilineal Stark (i.e. your father is a Stark by birth) or a matrilineal Stark (i.e. your mother is a Stark by birth) for all of the supposed but it's probably safer to bet on the father over the mother. Which wouldn't be a problem because Sansa, Arya and/or Bran (maybe even Rickon) will likely be in Winterfell in Dream or, in Sansa's case, the end of Winds.

It's what I'd call reasonable speculation. The other two locations attributed to Bran the Builder, the Wall and Storm's End, are both credibly noted to have magical defenses, it stands to reason Winterfell would as well. Further, there's no reason to believe any particular bloodline is required for these defenses to work: no bloodline seems to keep the Wall standing, and nobody of Durrandon/Baratheon descent was at Storm's End when Melisandra required Davos' help to bypass the magical barriers there.

As for patrilineage vs matrilineage, it's difficult for me to imagine that GRRM would conceive a world where who your father was matters more than who your mother was beyond social conventions.

1 hour ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Knowing Martin, the last chapter (at least before the epilogue, if there will be one) will probably be Bran. The story started with Bran and, in my opinion based on Bran's character arc and his powers, it's going to have to end with him. Especially if all of the other POV characters have died.

Knowing Martin, Bran is the character most likely to attain "monster" status. A human joining with an alien intelligence is a common theme in GRRM's stories, and it's never to the betterment of the human in question. I suppose that doesn't mean he won't get the last word in: I do expect him to survive, and I don't expect GRRM will stop using him as a POV (he's far too convenient of a story-telling tool). So you may be right, but I feel like watching the last sunset is too poignant of an ending compared to anything Bran could tell us.

[BlackLightning]

29 minutes ago, Damon_Tor said:

Knowing Martin, Bran is the character most likely to attain "monster" status. A human joining with an alien intelligence is a common theme in GRRM's stories, and it's never to the betterment of the human in question. I suppose that doesn't mean he won't get the last word in: I do expect him to survive, and I don't expect GRRM will stop using him as a POV (he's far too convenient of a story-telling tool). So you may be right, but I feel like watching the last sunset is too poignant of an ending compared to anything Bran could tell us.

Idk

He's apparently rewriting the final acts of the story. So, even though we got NotReallyHumanAnymore!Bran in the TV show, we might very well get a completely different Bran in the books.

But why Tyrion?

Based on how dark - frankly, villainous - his character is getting, why? Would he even care once he got Casterly Rock? For the record, I don't think Tyrion is going to survive the series. Not in the books

 

[Damon_Tor]

1 hour ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Idk

He's apparently rewriting the final acts of the story. So, even though we got NotReallyHumanAnymore!Bran in the TV show, we might very well get a completely different Bran in the books.

But why Tyrion?

Based on how dark - frankly, villainous - his character is getting, why? Would he even care once he got Casterly Rock? For the record, I don't think Tyrion is going to survive the series. Not in the books

 

I'm not 100% solid on Tyrion being the sole survivor (of the "main" characters, something admittedly subjective. I expect Sam to survive, for example, but he's not what I consider a man character) its more of a hunch than anything.

[Big Daddy]

I think Martin's "gardening" approach got the better of him on this series, especially as the tale grew in the telling. He expanded and created too many plots in Feast/Dance when he should have been structuring his endgame.

At this point I am almost positive we will never see ADOS. And honestly I have serious doubts TWOW will ever see the light of day either. I have this suspicion that the only material he ever wrote for Winds is the material the got taken out of Dance and that we've already read most of that in the last 7 years. 

Gardening seems very creative and was probably very rewarding to him as he was writing along his way through the 1st 3 books, but we are seeing the effects of that now.

[Nevets]

I think his gardening approach worked well for the first 3 books, when he had a good idea of where he was going.  But after Feast and dance, his yard has become overgrown and weed-infested.  Doing a good job of weeding and pruning is difficult and time-consuming.  

My fear is that he doe not have the sufficient discipline to finish the job properly.  He really needs to make an outline (even if it is bare-bones), and set himself some deadlines.   I don't think the delay is in any way deliberate, but it is concerning nevertheless.  

[Casso, King of the Seals]

Guys, you are discussing Martin's progress in the TWOW subforum, and (perhaps inadvertently) giving some partial spoilers on the TV show. Could you please stick to book-related discussion/speculation as I like to read these threads but I am not watching the TV-series and do not want to read spoilers. Thanks.

[Kyll.Ing.]

At this point, I'm starting to wonder if Martin's (apparently-largely-fruitless) toiling on ASoIaF could possibly even be in the way of an even better story he would have told otherwise. It's all too easy to imagine it, him trying, with little inspiration, to untangle plot threads from a knot that has grown far too big, while in his head working on a different story he would have told if there only was time. Then again, he might have run into the same problem with that story too...

[Big Daddy]

On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 7:35 PM, Nevets said:

I think his gardening approach worked well for the first 3 books, when he had a good idea of where he was going.  But after Feast and dance, his yard has become overgrown and weed-infested.  Doing a good job of weeding and pruning is difficult and time-consuming.  

Agreed. These books are SO good, especially the first 3, and that's what makes the wait so painful. His gardening in the first 3 was amazingly creative that I still get satisfaction out of multiple rereads. 

[Byfort of Corfe]

1 hour ago, Big Daddy said:

Agreed. These books are SO good, especially the first 3, and that's what makes the wait so painful. His gardening in the first 3 was amazingly creative that I still get satisfaction out of multiple rereads. 

I really don't think that the last two are up to snuff, characters appear for little or no reason, their stories barely move anything along.  From what we have seen of his released chapters from WOW he is still moving main characters away from the conclusion and he is still developing new story arcs.  All in all my feeling remains that GRRM is sick and tired of this and would rather be writing about Knights Errant and simple, one volume "histories".  

[Clegane'sPup]

I just finished re-reading The Mystery Knight and a thought came to me. Martin in my opinion is good at writing short stories.

Reflecting on ASOIAF it appears to me that martin tried to combine a bunch of short stories into a saga.

I may not do a good job at articulating this but here goes.

Known ASOIAF short stories in magazines that can be found online in pdf format:
Blood of the Dragon 1996
Path of the Dragon 2000
Arms of the Kracken 2005

Then the Dunk & Egg tales. I much enjoyed those although at the time I had to track down the anthologies they were included in. This was before Knight of the Seven Kingdoms 2015.
Hedge Knight 1998
Sworn Sword 2003
Mystery Knight 2010

Then there are the Targ novella's that had not one name but two, were released in various anthologies which are now being brought together in Fire & Blood v.1
Princess & the Queen 2013  Blacks & Greens
Rogue Prince 2014  A Kings Brother
Sons of the Dragon 2017      read at a convention some years ago

Let's move on to preview chapters read at conventions or posted on martin's blog.
Theon I 2011 also on app
Arianne I 2012 also on app
Barristan I 2013 also on app
Tyrion II 2013/14 also on app
Mercy (Arya) 2014
Alayne (Sansa) 2008 or 15
Arienne II 2008 or 16
Victarian 2012

The above ^ is incomplete. There is also discrepancy as to when they were written and in which book they belong or removed to. Feel free to inform me of my mistakes.

After going though all that fidget spinning and taking into consideration the cavil on chronology in DwD and the meanwhile back at the Wall note in FfC I would say martin lost control of the ASOIAF story by the end of SoS, book three.

What is my point? Martin was relatively mediocre until the you know what decided to try the you know what. The pilot had to be remade. Then martin became famous and his world changed.

The details in these books are crippling. The chronology of events is outta whack. As a first time reader I had to keep flipping back and forth scratching my head --- what, wait a minute, how did that, am I losing my grey matter, when did that, etc.

Why do I keep hanging round when other smarter individuals have left? I wanna know what happens. I also like the camaraderie.

What caused martin to loose grip on his material. Fame, fortune, lack of editorial feedback and living life.  Can martin finish his saga, yeah.

BUT due to the complex story weaving he is gonna have to take a sabbatical and immerse himself back into his fictional world. OR start releasing bunches of short stories. I would be okay with that.

Break WoW and DoS down into short stories --- the Wolves return, the dragons ride, the Lannisters roar, the krackens drown, the Iron Bank gets its due, the house of black and white vs the citadel, Dorne shares its fruit, Bloodraven's journey, Howland's tell all, the land of always winter, Benjen's tourney journal, etc

 

 

[BlackLightning]

18 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

BUT due to the complex story weaving he is gonna have to take a sabbatical and immerse himself back into his fictional world. OR start releasing bunches of short stories. I would be okay with that.

Break WoW and DoS down into short stories --- the Wolves return, the dragons ride, the Lannisters roar, the krackens drown, the Iron Bank gets its due, the house of black and white vs the citadel, Dorne shares its fruit, Bloodraven's journey, Howland's tell all, the land of always winter, Benjen's tourney journal, etc 

Charles Dickens and Edgar Allen Poe (and many of their contemporaries) used to publish their books chapter-by-chapter in monthly, biweekly or weekly periodicals.

And the pulp fiction writers of old (many of them specialized in sci-fi, mystery, horror and magic which is what ASoIaF has become in the last two books) and the superhero comic book writers of more modern times put out these epic, quality stories - well, not so much on the more recent comic book writers, but that's another story - that lasted for years at a time. You can put some of these stories in books and still have them sell like hot cakes.

Martin got started writing because of pulp fiction; if he can buckle down and outline the basics and some of the details, he can write a chapter or two (maybe three) in a week.

[Cas Stark]

On 6/22/2018 at 12:57 AM, Mwm said:

Take a look at this: https://winteriscoming.net/2018/06/18/video-diana-gabaldon-talks-about-a-conversation-she-had-with-george-r-r-martin-about-writing-shell/

I haven’t been able to find a thread, that discussion in depth, exactly what it was that made him loose his way, especially in comparison that he churned out the first three books in about four years.

I don’t believe for a moment it’s just because he added some new POV characters; which is the complaint I’ve been hearing contantly for nine years...

The new POVs seem to be a symptom, rather than the cause, which may or may not be the 5 year gap issue.  If he decided to actually write the 5 years into the story, then this 'middle' is going to end up being 3 books at least, since at the end of Dance we are not close to hitting 5 years of time passing.  It would be a reasonable conclusion that the author stopped almost all forward momentum to age up the main characters, but in doing so he created a host of unintended consequences that it appears he has so far been unable to recover from, narratively speaking.

[Tagganaro]

19 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

BUT due to the complex story weaving he is gonna have to take a sabbatical and immerse himself back into his fictional world. OR start releasing bunches of short stories. I would be okay with that.

Break WoW and DoS down into short stories --- the Wolves return, the dragons ride, the Lannisters roar, the krackens drown, the Iron Bank gets its due, the house of black and white vs the citadel, Dorne shares its fruit, Bloodraven's journey, Howland's tell all, the land of always winter, Benjen's tourney journal, etc

1 hour ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Charles Dickens and Edgar Allen Poe (and many of their contemporaries) used to publish their books chapter-by-chapter in monthly, biweekly or weekly periodicals.

And the pulp fiction writers of old (many of them specialized in sci-fi, mystery, horror and magic which is what ASoIaF has become in the last two books) and the superhero comic book writers of more modern times put out these epic, quality stories - well, not so much on the more recent comic book writers, but that's another story - that lasted for years at a time. You can put some of these stories in books and still have them sell like hot cakes.

Martin got started writing because of pulp fiction; if he can buckle down and outline the basics and some of the details, he can write a chapter or two (maybe three) in a week.

I really like this idea, because at his current pace, I'd say it is almost an impossibility we will ever get ADOS, let alone maybe even TWOW.  

 

[The Dragon has three heads]

I’d say it’s because he never had the middle planned. He was going to ‘skip’ it. And instead he’s had to write it. 

WOW will happen. And I imagine unless it’s better than GOT-which is unlikely, it will be derided like dance and feast were by some.

Id just like to see a resolution from GRRM before the mummers version but sadly that’s never gonna happen.

[alienarea]

When you play the Game of Thrones, you either win or die.

[T and A]

There are many reasons I guess, so you can not solely point on one in particular.

The main reason is of course money. Sweet, sweet money. The working time is limited and so are the resources. You have to spent the time most efficient. The money he gains from other projects, especially from HBO, is much bigger than the money he earns by writing and selling books. So it is just rational that he spends more of bis time on those projects, than writing books. If you get for one invested hour 100 $ instead of 20 $, you would choose to spend the hour on option one. The other side effect of money is, that it makes you financially indipendent. In the 90s GRRM had to write, to earn enough money to live. He was also dependent of his publishers. Now, as a multi millionaire and a popular author, it is the other way around. He can choose how to spend bis time and with whom to work.

An other reasons is the "gardening aproach". He has just lost his way in the story. 

Furthemore he has gotten older and maybe he just needs more time to think and to be creative. 

As far as the "he lost the interes in the story" argument, that is I think highly speculative. It may be, but there is nothing that directly prooves this or hints at this. 

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Gardening aproach made him write himself into a corner... well not exaclty a corner but similar.

The garden just grew out of control....he is a juggler with way too many balls in the air. making all fit together and keep consistanct seems impossible. Perhaps it actually became too stressful to deal with, and when this happens procastrination could soon follow, which would in turn explain the lack of progress.

Almost 3 years ago he thought he could finish the book in a couple of months.. either he was lying, or he just cant deal with the new "Meereense knot" he might be trapped in.

[Werthead]

Points worth reiterating: the 5-year-gap was introduced during the writing of ACoK/ASoS. It was not in the original plan for the series, so he wasn't going to skip the middle of the story. The introduction of the gap meant inserting a narrative gap into the story, but by the time he decided to pull the gap it was no longer possible just to remove the gap, as the storylines of the various characters had desynchronised. AFFC/ADWD was effectively an exercise in resynchronising the stories so they made sense (this has been at least partially successful, but partially not: Daenerys seems to be rather off in where her storyline requires her to be and where she is).

 

Quote

I just finished re-reading The Mystery Knight and a thought came to me. Martin in my opinion is good at writing short stories.

George has said this many times: ASoIaF is a whole ton of short stories and short novels that are entwined around one another, with varying degrees of crossover.

[Clegane'sPup]

28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

George has said this many times: ASoIaF is a whole ton of short stories and short novels that are entwined around one another, with varying degrees of crossover.

 

On 7/2/2018 at 3:22 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

I just finished re-reading The Mystery Knight and a thought came to me. Martin in my opinion is good at writing short stories.

 

On 7/2/2018 at 3:22 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

Reflecting on ASOIAF it appears to me that martin tried to combine a bunch of short stories into a saga.

Thanks. Maybe my grey matter is partially in tact.

[Tagganaro]

20 hours ago, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

Gardening aproach made him write himself into a corner... well not exaclty a corner but similar.

The garden just grew out of control....he is a juggler with way too many balls in the air. making all fit together and keep consistanct seems impossible. Perhaps it actually became too stressful to deal with, and when this happens procastrination could soon follow, which would in turn explain the lack of progress.

Almost 3 years ago he thought he could finish the book in a couple of months.. either he was lying, or he just cant deal with the new "Meereense knot" he might be trapped in.

It's really crazy to look back at all his "predictions" on when TWOW would be done.  In 2012 he said he thought he could finish in 2014.  In 2015, he claimed he had " a lot of pages done" in TWOW and that he wanted to get the book out by April 2016.  Then beginning of 2017 he's saying he thinks it will be done by the end of the year.

It's clear he either can't or won't write the book.  Either he has lost interest or can't get out of the Mereeneese Knot.  At this point not only am I doubting we will ever see ADOS but also TWOW.