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The Gift of Castamere to the Spicers, and the Westerland Response


Coyote_Durango

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13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Perhaps, but the difference is that if he just naturally fell for Jeyne and foreswore his vows for that love, then he is the full architect of his own downfall and pretty much bears all the consequences for what happened to him and his kingdom. If he was drugged or magicked into falling for her, then he is not culpable for that part of it, at least, although we can maybe still fault him for placing his honor above the needs of his people.

So he goes from being a complete victim of his own foolishness and pride to being a partial victim of Tywin's and Sybell's nefarious plotting.

Personally I find it all the more tragic that Robb is just a boy who found out his brothers were "dead" and was consoled by a pretty girl.  He fell for her, and then rather than dishonoring her he chose to dishonor the Freys.  I don't really view it in terms of culpability, it's about humanity and choices, and I don't see where some magic love potion makes this remotely more compelling or tragic.  

Now to the OPs point it's clear to me that Rolph was involved in plotting from the beginning based on Grey Wind's reaction to him, but I have trouble seeing any further plotting than that.

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On ‎6‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 6:11 PM, Coyote_Durango said:

It's worth mentioning that Sybell Spicer almost certainly wouldn't have had her own ravens at the Crag. In ADWD, Barbary Dustin tells Theon that all great houses had a Maester, and all lesser houses aspired to have one, because not having one meant that you were of little consequence. We know that the Westerlings were impoverished and were of low standing, and the book never mentions a Crag Maester. After Robb took the Crag would have been a good time to introduce one to tend Robb's wound, but instead it was of course Jeyne. So it stands to reason they didn't have a Maester, which means no ravens. Any communication between Sybell and Tywin had to be after the fact. So my guess is Robb had a Lannister spy somewhere in the camp that served as Sybell's point of contact.

No maester at the Crag and thus no ravens; yeah, I guess that makes sense. But if we are going to assume a human rider as go-between for Sybell and Tywin, we have some logistical problems to deal with. If she betrayed Robb while still at the Crag or shortly after leaving, then this rider would have to cross hundreds of miles of hostile territory just to reach Tywin, who by now is either marching toward Riverrun or rafting his army down the Blackwater to King's Landing. Once Robb and Co. return to RR, of course, this spy cannot be just some random foot-soldier in Robb's army; he needs a plausible reason to enter and depart the castle, so he would have to be a somewhat important person. This tends to rule out a Lannister spy because it is unlikely that he could infiltrate the northern army and then work his way up the chain of command in so short a time. So at best, we should assume that this spy is one of Sybell's own men. As I recall, the Westerlings brought 50 men into Robb's army, including 12 knights, so I suppose it's plausible that one of these knights is the go-between, since he would be able to enter and leave the castle. But he would have to make this trip across war-torn country, avoiding Lannister-Tyrell forces as well as the Brotherhood and Robb's own scouts and outriders at Riverrun. Very dicey prospect.

And this still leaves us with the puzzle as to why Tywin would reward the Westerlings with such a valuable prize as Castamere if they truly and genuinely betrayed him in the first place. If that was the case, then their most significant contribution to the defeat of the norther army -- getting Robb to break with the Freys -- was the result of treachery. All she did after the fact is make sure Jeyne did not get pregnant; she didn't even have anything to do with the Red Wedding, and Rolph did nothing at all. The moment they betrayed Tywin, they would have forfeited their lands and titles, so the minor role they played after they re-committed to Tywin would at best allow them to reclaim their original status, not elevate them to one of the most lucrative seats in the westerlands.

So, sorry, but in my view, the only solution that squares all of these circles is that Tywin and Sybell were plotting before the Crag fell and that Sybell could pretty much guarantee Robb's actions because she knew the affect that grandma Maggie's love potion would have on him.

 

On ‎6‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 6:11 PM, Coyote_Durango said:

No, I mentioned blood magic in relation to seeing the future, as that's what Maggy used. It wasn't related to any potions. Though I think I did misunderstand a part of your argument in that I thought you were suggesting Sybell used magic to see the future, like Maggy. If Sybell knew Robb was coming at all, then it most likely had to be through a spy pretty close to Robb. He was pretty mindful of unwelcome eyes when planning. Wonder who would have fit the bill.

Once Robb snuck past the Golden Tooth and defeated the Lannisters at Oxcross, it's not like his whole army could suddenly disappear again. Remember, Robb wanted to draw Tywin west, so it would make sense to be as visible as possible during this phase of the campaign. His next target was Ashemark, so it doesn't take a genius to realize that he would hit the Crag next.

But again, I don't see how Lady S could have set all this up with Tywin using riders and go-betweens. There isn't enough time and Tywin is on the move. So, maester or no maester at the Crag, I think the only plausible way is with ravens before Tywin left Harrenhall.

And to cap it off, I fail to understand why Martin would plot Robb's arc so that he falls so deeply in love that he is willing to forsake his entire kingdom for a plain girl like Jeyne, but at the same time needlessly create the fact that Jeyne's great-grandmother was a crack woods witch who made love potions. If there was ever a case in which where Martin wanted us to connect the dots, this is it.

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1 hour ago, Tagganaro said:

Personally I find it all the more tragic that Robb is just a boy who found out his brothers were "dead" and was consoled by a pretty girl.  He fell for her, and then rather than dishonoring her he chose to dishonor the Freys.  I don't really view it in terms of culpability, it's about humanity and choices, and I don't see where some magic love potion makes this remotely more compelling or tragic.  

Now to the OPs point it's clear to me that Rolph was involved in plotting from the beginning based on Grey Wind's reaction to him, but I have trouble seeing any further plotting than that.

Yes, that is a tragic story, but I submit that it is not as tragic as a boy who might have been able to resist Jeyne's charms and not break his vows in the first place if not for the fact that he was given a very powerful magic potion that caused him to lose control of his emotions, and thus his actions. Now, he is the complete victim of Tywin's nefarious plotting rather than the cause of his own downfall. Much more tragic of a figure this way, in my opinion.

I'm not sure what you mean by "from the beginning." We don't learn of Grey Wind's reaction to Rolph until Robb returns to Riverrun, so when would the beginning of the plotting be: before Robb took the Crag and met Jeyne, or after?

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A bit off topic but can one guesstimate the total military strength of house Westerling? I remember something to the tune of 50 knights and 200 total swords rode out with Robb but could be wrong and don't know what that might make their total strength.

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14 hours ago, Yournamehere said:

A bit off topic but can one guesstimate the total military strength of house Westerling? I remember something to the tune of 50 knights and 200 total swords rode out with Robb but could be wrong and don't know what that might make their total strength.

Quote

"Dare I ask how many swords come with your bride, Robb?"

"Fifty. A dozen knights." His voice was glum, as well it might be. When the marriage contract had been made at the Twins, old Lord Walder Frey had sent Robb off with a thousand mounted knights and near three thousand foot. (ASOS Catelyn II)

Their strength is greater than fifty, however, since Lord Westerling was part of Jaime's host at the start of the war and was captured in the Whispering Wood.

Quote

"But such a battle!" said Theon Greyjoy eagerly. "My lady, the realm has not seen such a victory since the Field of Fire. I vow, the Lannisters lost ten men for every one of ours that fell. We've taken close to a hundred knights captive, and a dozen lords bannermen. Lord Westerling, Lord Banefort, Ser Garth Greenfield, Lord Estren, Ser Tytos Brax, Mallor the Dornishman … and three Lannisters besides Jaime, Lord Tywin's own nephews, two of his sister's sons and one of his dead brother's …" (AGOT Catelyn X)

 

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