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The Gift of Castamere to the Spicers, and the Westerland Response


Coyote_Durango

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I want to say Hello to the AFOIAF community. This is my first post. I'm not used to writing my thoughts out publicly, so please bear with me. I just wanted to run some thoughts by the community and see what you guys think.

After the Red Wedding, Tywin awarded the main conspirators of the Red Wedding with lands and titles. However, the one the sticks out to me as the most peculiar is the gift to the Westerlings, and particularly the Spicers. He elevated Rolph Spicer to Lord of Castamere, givhing him the castle and it's wealth. I'm curious because this seems very.. un-Tywin-like for a few reasons. 

Up until this point in the story, Tywin specifically left Castamere vacant and in ruins to serve as a warning to his bannermen about what happens when you rebel against the Lannisters. Yet I think it's a little beyond ironic that not only is he reversing that attitude, he is specifically giving the castle to a rebel house, The Spicers.

Even more peculiar about this is that The Spicers are specifically a house that Tywin doesn't like! They are a lowborn house that were elevated by Tywin's father, Tytos... whom Tywin hated. Even prior to the War of the Five Kings, the Westerlings and the Spicers weren't very well liked, particularly by the Lannisters. Even Keven Lannister rejected the idea of marrying a Westerling daughter to one of his sons. During the war though, The Spicers and Westerlings pledged to Robb, though it is unclear whether they pledged before or after their secret deal with Tywin. Regardless,  these houses were viewed as rebels in the Westerlands. So I wonder how all of this would look to a Lannister banner house when Castamere, of all castles, was given to a rebel house.  Giving them that castle could look like a sign of Lannister weakness.

The Westerlings and Spicers would probably have had good reason to throw in with Robb, given their poor standing in the Westerlands, and no one knew of this secret plan with Tywin. In other words, unlike the Freys or the Boltons, the Westerlings and Spicers are disposable. Besides the Westerling part of the plot was hardly failproof. The plan was supposedly to position Jeyne Westerling close to rob and hope they fall in love? Seems like a big payout for the most unlikely part of the plan.

Regardless, even if the plan worked (which it obviously did), it seems to me that it would be more in Tywin's character to kill the Westerlings and Spicers as rebels just like he did with the Reynes, as no one knew of the secret plan. That would have certainly preserved the Lannister's ruthless reputation in the region. Instead he did precisely the opposite. Now that Tywin is dead and Lannister influence is waning, I wonder how this all looks in the Westerlands. Tywin ruled by fear and shrewd money lending. Now that he's dead, there really isn't anyone at Casterly Rock that could call in those debts with the same authority. And to a bannerman, Castamere looks like it was just given to a traitor. So now with Tywin out of the picture, I can see things easily reverting back to the way things were during Tytos's reign, where the bannermen basically control the Lannisters. 

We even see a hint of this with Sybell Spicer's conversation with Jaime. She was trying to weasel out some blockbuster marriages to lords and heirs claiming "Tywin said..", even though that didn't appear to be part of the deal. Tywin is dead, and she's trying milk all she can out of a waning house. Related to that point regarding the "Robb's Heir" theory, that's why I don't buy her claim to Jaime that she "made sure" Robb wouldn't have an heir by Jeyne. It seems to me that if Jeyne were pregnant, that would be a huge political card she could keep in her back pocket. So at the very least, she'd want Jeyne's baby carried to term, and then decide what to do with it later. The Starks are obviously in tough spot right now too though, but that baby could be her family's pathway to royalty and Winterfell, depending on what happens with the battle for Winterfell. Although it's a longshot, that prospect still beats the heck out of a ruined castle and a tenuous status in the Westerlands if the baby were aborted with moon tea. 

Your thoughts?

 

 

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Jeyne's mother made her a "posset" every day to help with fertility. I caught that when I read it like "huuuuuh..."

 

Sybill only hatched her plan after Robb had already sexed Jeyne, and it sounds like he was ready to marry her right after. Sybill sees opportunity here and starts corresponding with Tywin. With the Boltons in charge, a Stark heir isn't going to have any leverage imo, and Cersei would just have it murdered instantly.

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59 minutes ago, Coyote_Durango said:

snip

Welcome CD.

Make no mistake: The Spicers did not join up with Robb and only later decide to betray him. They were plotting with Tywin and against Robb since before their castle fell.

Robb and Jeyne falling in love was no accident. Sybell is the granddaughter of Maggie the Frog, the woman who told fortunes and sold "love potions" to the people of Lannisport. We also know that Maggie was no fraud, having successfully predicted Cersei's future. So it stands to reason that Maggie's love potions are also the real deal and, since Sybell knows how to whip up other concoctions, like whatever went into the possets she was giving Jeyne, that she knows the love potion recipe as well.

So to those who contend that Tywin just lucked out incredibly and Robb blundered big time by falling in love with Jeyne, I say that poor Robb was not in control of himself at the time because Sybell and Rolph slipped him a love potion on the orders of Tywin. Note that as time goes by, Robb becomes more cold, distant and frustrated with Jeyne -- because the potion has worn off and he realizes what a fix he is in.

So, actually, your question answers itself. Tywin would not give such as gift as Castamere to a family that betrayed him and only later changed their minds. But he would do so for a house that put its reputation on the line by pretending to turn traitor, when in reality they were loyal all along and were the only reason the northern army was defeated so quickly and at so little cost to Tywin's army.

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Youre right, Castamere is a hidden poison, their gold mines ran dry I believe, it'll take many--many years to get it up, but for a house like Spicers, its def a step up. It'll be considered a gift but for others, it'll be considered a insult. 

If Tywin didn't conspire with the Spicers, who knew how long Robb's campaign will drag out. And the Vale Lords were BEGGING to join the campaign against the Lannisters to avenge Jon Arryn, while Lysa Tully was doing her best, under orders of Littlefinger, to keep the Vale out.

Jon Arryn kept the diplomacy going on with Dorne as well. 

 

Remember the Vale Lords still thought the Lannisters were behind the death of Jon Arryn and they could go rogue at any second so long as the Northern Campaign continues.  

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1 hour ago, Coyote_Durango said:

I want to say Hello to the AFOIAF community. This is my first post. I'm not used to writing my thoughts out publicly, so please bear with me. I just wanted to run some thoughts by the community and see what you guys think.

After the Red Wedding, Tywin awarded the main conspirators of the Red Wedding with lands and titles. However, the one the sticks out to me as the most peculiar is the gift to the Westerlings, and particularly the Spicers. He elevated Rolph Spicer to Lord of Castamere, givhing him the castle and it's wealth. I'm curious because this seems very.. un-Tywin-like for a few reasons. 

Up until this point in the story, Tywin specifically left Castamere vacant and in ruins to serve as a warning to his bannermen about what happens when you rebel against the Lannisters. Yet I think it's a little beyond ironic that not only is he reversing that attitude, he is specifically giving the castle to a rebel house, The Spicers.

Your thoughts?

(snip)

 

Unlike @John Suburbs my interpretation of that whole thing is that house Westerlings wealth and influence was dwindling, they attached themselves to Robb (no love-potion - more like trauma and hormones) in hopes of bettering their prospects, then sold out Jayne to the Lannisters for bettering their prospects.

And Tywin goes "Hell no girl, you get the Harrenhall-treatment"

 

edit: it just sends a really clear warning against more plotting

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I feel the same way about the non-mysticism non-potion angle in this situation, Sigella. To John_Suburb's point, Maggy used blood magic in Valonqar prophecy, and as far as we know, Cersei never told her father about it. I think Sybell using magic produces too many assumptions. Like we'd have to assume Maggy passed down her knowledge and training to her children, which I don't think is mentioned anywhere. If she did, then who's blood would Sybell have used? Would Tywin even believe her if she said she could see the future? If she could see the future, why didn't she see Jeyne's fate, or Robb's, or Reynald's? People bought potions from Maggy, but did they actually work? Could have just been a virility potion or something. Sybell having these magic and potion skills would seem a little bit deus ex machina in favor of Tywin. Then again, in a world with things like glass candles, could be possible.

I do get the feeling like Sybell is opportunistic with match-making though. Seems interestingly consistent with other spice traders in the story (like the Rich Gulltown spice trader who's daughter Harry The Heir impregnated). Could be why the high houses didn't like them much. Still though, Is there any indication why Sybell Spicer would even want to help Tywin? I mean, They've kind of treated her family like crap over the years and the Lannisters were losing at the time. She's clearly more interested in a marriage into a great house that the Lannisters continue to deny them rather than settling for a ruined castle that is likely to gain themselves (and likely the Lannisters) more enmity than status. 

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42 minutes ago, Coyote_Durango said:

I feel the same way about the non-mysticism non-potion angle in this situation, Sigella. To John_Suburb's point, Maggy used blood magic in Valonqar prophecy, and as far as we know, Cersei never told her father about it. I think Sybell using magic produces too many assumptions. Like we'd have to assume Maggy passed down her knowledge and training to her children, which I don't think is mentioned anywhere. If she did, then who's blood would Sybell have used? Would Tywin even believe her if she said she could see the future? If she could see the future, why didn't she see Jeyne's fate, or Robb's, or Reynald's? People bought potions from Maggy, but did they actually work? Could have just been a virility potion or something. Sybell having these magic and potion skills would seem a little bit deus ex machina in favor of Tywin. Then again, in a world with things like glass candles, could be possible.

I do get the feeling like Sybell is opportunistic with match-making though. Seems interestingly consistent with other spice traders in the story (like the Rich Gulltown spice trader who's daughter Harry The Heir impregnated). Could be why the high houses didn't like them much. Still though, Is there any indication why Sybell Spicer would even want to help Tywin? I mean, They've kind of treated her family like crap over the years and the Lannisters were losing at the time. She's clearly more interested in a marriage into a great house that the Lannisters continue to deny them rather than settling for a ruined castle that is likely to gain themselves (and likely the Lannisters) more enmity than status. 

Yeah, given all this, Tywin had to give them something to avoid wolfpups and so gave them Castamere as a warning as well as a reward.

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7 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

I

After the Red Wedding, Tywin awarded the main conspirators of the Red Wedding with lands and titles. However, the one the sticks out to me as the most peculiar is the gift to the Westerlings, and particularly the Spicers. He elevated Rolph Spicer to Lord of Castamere, givhing him the castle and it's wealth. I'm curious because this seems very.. un-Tywin-like for a few reasons. 

he gave them a flooded underground castle they are likely never going to have the money to full restore. it is pretty much a white elephant. 

The Reynes were the second richest House in Westeros, the second most powerful House in the Westerlands, they would have many lands and vassals of their own, lands and vassals that have not been leaderless for the last 40 years. The majority of the Reynes holdings and wealth will have already been distributed out to Lannister loyalists 40 years ago while the castle itself remained ruler-less. 

 

 

 

7 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

Even more peculiar about this is that The Spicers are specifically a house that Tywin doesn't like! They are a lowborn house that were elevated by Tywin's father, Tytos... whom Tywin hated. Even prior to the War of the Five Kings, the Westerlings and the Spicers weren't very well liked, particularly by the Lannisters. Even Keven Lannister rejected the idea of marrying a Westerling daughter to one of his sons.

That was not down to them not being liked. One of Tywin's commanders in Robert's Rebellion was Ser Elys Westerling. Howwever they were a house who had sullied their bloodline and had sold of much of their lands, they were a poor marriage alliance even in peace times (beyond idiotic in war)

It was not a question of like it was a question of suitability. The Westerlings were no longer suitable marriage options for the better Westerland Houses 

7 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

Regardless, even if the plan worked (which it obviously did), it seems to me that it would be more in Tywin's character to kill the Westerlings and Spicers as rebels just like he did with the Reynes, as no one knew of the secret plan.

He didn't just kill the Reynes, he gave them multiple opportunities to surrender and they refused. Tywin is not just dispensing of noble Houses he personally does not like. 

7 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

 

That would have certainly preserved the Lannister's ruthless reputation in the region. Instead he did precisely the opposite. Now that Tywin is dead and Lannister influence is waning, I wonder how this all looks in the Westerlands. Tywin ruled by fear and shrewd money lending.

No, not entirely. The Westerlands was a mess when Tywin's father was in charge, constant chaos, no defense from the Ironborn, constant fighting as some nobles took what they wanted or overtaxed the peasants, Tywin corrected all that. 

Look at Tywin's 20 year reign as Hand when the realm was peaceful and prosperous and zero sign of him ruling with fear. 

It was Tywin Lannister who settled the crown's dispute with the Braavosi (though without "making the Titan kneel," to the king's displeasure), by repaying the monies lent to Jaehaerys II with gold from Casterly Rock, thereby taking the debts upon himself. Tywin won the approbation of many great lords by repealing what remained of the laws Aegon V had enacted to curb their powers. Tywin reduced tariffs and taxes on shipping going in and out of the cities of King's Landing, Lannisport, and Oldtown, winning the support of many wealthy merchants. Tywin built new roads and repaired old ones, held many splendid tournaments about the realm to the delight of knights and commons both, cultivated trade with the Free Cities, and sternly punished bakers found guilty of adding sawdust to their bread and butchers selling horsemeat as beef. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 It fell to Tywin to restore House Lannister to its proper place. Just as it fell to him to rule this realm, when he was no more than twenty. He bore that heavy burden for twenty years, and all it earned him was a mad king's envy. Instead of the honor he deserved, he was made to suffer slights beyond count, yet he gave the Seven Kingdoms peace, plenty, and justice.

 

In wartime and to his enemies Tywin uses fear but in peace time there is zero evidence that he uses such tactics, he, like many rulers, realize that his people prospering is good for its rulers. 

So no, Tywin did not rule over the Westerlands with fear, well no more than the average westerosi Overlord. but a combination of factors.

 

7 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

 

Now that he's dead, there really isn't anyone at Casterly Rock that could call in those debts with the same authority. And to a bannerman, Castamere looks like it was just given to a traitor. So now with Tywin out of the picture, I can see things easily reverting back to the way things were during Tytos's reign, where the bannermen basically control the Lannisters. 

Perhaps, perhaps not. The Lannisters are intermarried to most of the powerful Houses in the West and the people who have been tasked with ruling the Westerlands seem capable

Your service was required here. Cersei had named her cousin Damion Lannister her castellan for the Rock, and another cousin, Ser Daven Lannister, the Warden of the West.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 He is an old done man. Daven and Damion will serve us better."

"They'll suffice." Jaime had no quarrel with his cousins. 
 
Tytos problem was that he had no backbone, he was an oddity as a ruler, an example of what Sam may have turned out to be if he became lord of Horn Hill.  A lord who was scared of conflict that he would give into any demand making him look weak. 

 

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17 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

I want to say Hello to the AFOIAF community. This is my first post. I'm not used to writing my thoughts out publicly, so please bear with me. I just wanted to run some thoughts by the community and see what you guys think.

After the Red Wedding, Tywin awarded the main conspirators of the Red Wedding with lands and titles. However, the one the sticks out to me as the most peculiar is the gift to the Westerlings, and particularly the Spicers. He elevated Rolph Spicer to Lord of Castamere, givhing him the castle and it's wealth. I'm curious because this seems very.. un-Tywin-like for a few reasons. 

Up until this point in the story, Tywin specifically left Castamere vacant and in ruins to serve as a warning to his bannermen about what happens when you rebel against the Lannisters. Yet I think it's a little beyond ironic that not only is he reversing that attitude, he is specifically giving the castle to a rebel house, The Spicers.

Even more peculiar about this is that The Spicers are specifically a house that Tywin doesn't like! They are a lowborn house that were elevated by Tywin's father, Tytos... whom Tywin hated. Even prior to the War of the Five Kings, the Westerlings and the Spicers weren't very well liked, particularly by the Lannisters. Even Keven Lannister rejected the idea of marrying a Westerling daughter to one of his sons. During the war though, The Spicers and Westerlings pledged to Robb, though it is unclear whether they pledged before or after their secret deal with Tywin. Regardless,  these houses were viewed as rebels in the Westerlands. So I wonder how all of this would look to a Lannister banner house when Castamere, of all castles, was given to a rebel house.  Giving them that castle could look like a sign of Lannister weakness.

The Westerlings and Spicers would probably have had good reason to throw in with Robb, given their poor standing in the Westerlands, and no one knew of this secret plan with Tywin. In other words, unlike the Freys or the Boltons, the Westerlings and Spicers are disposable. Besides the Westerling part of the plot was hardly failproof. The plan was supposedly to position Jeyne Westerling close to rob and hope they fall in love? Seems like a big payout for the most unlikely part of the plan.

Regardless, even if the plan worked (which it obviously did), it seems to me that it would be more in Tywin's character to kill the Westerlings and Spicers as rebels just like he did with the Reynes, as no one knew of the secret plan. That would have certainly preserved the Lannister's ruthless reputation in the region. Instead he did precisely the opposite. Now that Tywin is dead and Lannister influence is waning, I wonder how this all looks in the Westerlands. Tywin ruled by fear and shrewd money lending. Now that he's dead, there really isn't anyone at Casterly Rock that could call in those debts with the same authority. And to a bannerman, Castamere looks like it was just given to a traitor. So now with Tywin out of the picture, I can see things easily reverting back to the way things were during Tytos's reign, where the bannermen basically control the Lannisters. 

We even see a hint of this with Sybell Spicer's conversation with Jaime. She was trying to weasel out some blockbuster marriages to lords and heirs claiming "Tywin said..", even though that didn't appear to be part of the deal. Tywin is dead, and she's trying milk all she can out of a waning house. Related to that point regarding the "Robb's Heir" theory, that's why I don't buy her claim to Jaime that she "made sure" Robb wouldn't have an heir by Jeyne. It seems to me that if Jeyne were pregnant, that would be a huge political card she could keep in her back pocket. So at the very least, she'd want Jeyne's baby carried to term, and then decide what to do with it later. The Starks are obviously in tough spot right now too though, but that baby could be her family's pathway to royalty and Winterfell, depending on what happens with the battle for Winterfell. Although it's a longshot, that prospect still beats the heck out of a ruined castle and a tenuous status in the Westerlands if the baby were aborted with moon tea. 

Your thoughts?

 

 

Correct me if I am mistaken, but those families only pledged to Robb after he beat them in battle and took control of their castles, right?  It's not like they reached out to him months ahead of time and then offered their services.  I am saying they pledged because it was either that or destruction.  They had no way to stop Robb and the north from running all over their lands.  They had to think self-preservation.  

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Kandrax said:

My problem with love potion theory is that it diminish significance of Robb's breaking of promise to marry Walder's daughter.

I tend to agree, but maybe it's not a "love potion" exactly, but just something that excites his libido (not that a 19 year old male needs much in that aspect) while loosening his judgement.... have Jeyne float around in a thin linen nighgown to tend his wounds. and.... well, what happens happened. 

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12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Perhaps, perhaps not. The Lannisters are intermarried to most of the powerful Houses in the West and the people who have been tasked with ruling the Westerlands seem capable

Your service was required here. Cersei had named her cousin Damion Lannister her castellan for the Rock, and another cousin, Ser Daven Lannister, the Warden of the West.

I don't know a whole lot about Damion, except that Cersei only gave him Casterly Rock to piss off Keven. But what are your thoughts on Daven? The job doesn't really suit him. After re-reading the convo with Jaime in AFFC Jaime V, he kind of comes off as a little more Robert than Tywin. He likes drinking, women, picking on squires, and he didn't even want to be Warden of the West. He comes off as someone more interested in fighting than planning or strategy. If we think of the Seige of Riverrun as a test of how he would fair against an experienced foe, he failed pretty bad. He thought the seige was boring, and he didn't know enough about Brynden Tully to find any leverage over him; or even the Freys for that matter. As a result, he wound up in a stalemate thinking the only solution would be to storm the castle. Lastly, he doesn't seem to have a reliable information network, as it seems he learned of Jaime's hand through smallfolk tales.. either through Freys or drinking in Lannisport.

In fact he seems like he has so much in common with Robert, the fact that Cersei picked him is kind of ironic. With this guy as Warden of the West though, I think it's safe to say Tywin's shoes are definitely left unfilled. 

Edit: Also another thought, Daven is engaged to an undetermined Frey girl that may or may not have already been Black Walder'd. Yet he's going with it anyway and his justification is what happened to Robb in the Red Wedding. The irony here is that Walder Frey wouldn't have even hosted the Red Wedding without Tywin's permission and the marriage to Daven was a gift to Walder Frey as a result of the Red Wedding. Twyin likely agreed to it without the expectation Daven would be ever become Warden. Yet now here's Daven Lannister, Warden of the West, marrying a fugly Frey girl because he fears Frey retribution? Tywin would be rolling in his grave.

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22 hours ago, Kandrax said:

My problem with love potion theory is that it diminish significance of Robb's breaking of promise to marry Walder's daughter.

It turns him into the classic tragic victim. He didn't make his fatal mistake voluntarily, he was drugged. He was screwed by the master tactician, Tywin.

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22 hours ago, Kandrax said:

My problem with love potion theory is that it diminish significance of Robb's breaking of promise to marry Walder's daughter.

 

17 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

It turns him into the classic tragic victim. He didn't make his fatal mistake voluntarily, he was drugged. He was screwed by the master tactician, Tywin.

Not really. I disagree with you both.

If you get drunk and end up killing someone in a bar fight, is the significance of you killing someone in a fight diminished by your drunkenness?

Yes, it makes your situation all the more tragic, but the infamous "I was drunk" excuse is almost never successful. And the "I was drugged" excuse won't work here.

It's one thing if someone spikes your drink and so incapacitates you so that they can do what they want without interference or resistance.

It's another thing if someone spikes your drink and you - under the influence - decide it's a good idea to go break a marriage contract (a politically savvy one at that) so that you can make another marriage contract that not only has zero political/financial gain but also makes no goddamn sense.

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20 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

I feel the same way about the non-mysticism non-potion angle in this situation, Sigella. To John_Suburb's point, Maggy used blood magic in Valonqar prophecy, and as far as we know, Cersei never told her father about it. I think Sybell using magic produces too many assumptions. Like we'd have to assume Maggy passed down her knowledge and training to her children, which I don't think is mentioned anywhere. If she did, then who's blood would Sybell have used? Would Tywin even believe her if she said she could see the future? If she could see the future, why didn't she see Jeyne's fate, or Robb's, or Reynald's? People bought potions from Maggy, but did they actually work? Could have just been a virility potion or something. Sybell having these magic and potion skills would seem a little bit deus ex machina in favor of Tywin. Then again, in a world with things like glass candles, could be possible.

I do get the feeling like Sybell is opportunistic with match-making though. Seems interestingly consistent with other spice traders in the story (like the Rich Gulltown spice trader who's daughter Harry The Heir impregnated). Could be why the high houses didn't like them much. Still though, Is there any indication why Sybell Spicer would even want to help Tywin? I mean, They've kind of treated her family like crap over the years and the Lannisters were losing at the time. She's clearly more interested in a marriage into a great house that the Lannisters continue to deny them rather than settling for a ruined castle that is likely to gain themselves (and likely the Lannisters) more enmity than status. 

It was widely known that Sybell was Maggy's granddaughter. Cersei knows it, Jaime knows it, Kevan knows it, so it's likely that Tywin knew it as well. I don't see how we can leap to the conclusion that her love potion must be made with blood magic. It might not be magical at all.

Also, are we certain there is no gold in the Castamere mines? I've not seen that mentioned by anyone, least of all the Greatjon. So as far as we know, Castamere is a heck of a prize for an impoverished house that actually turned its cloak on Tywin before rejoining him. And then we have to wonder how this plot came about:

--Robb overruns house Westerling and is wounded in the process. At this point, Robb is in control of the castle, and the ravens.

--Robb shags Jeyne and the Westerlings abandon Tywin to side with Robb and become his goodfamily.

--They arrive at Riverrun where, again, Sybell has no access to ravens nor can riders come and go with the castle surrounded by water. Somehow, though, she is able to communicate with Tywin and he back to her to tell her that all will be forgiven if he just keeps Jeyne from getting preggers.

So unless Tywin and Sybell share glass candles, the only way this plot could happen is if Sybell had communicated with Tywin before she lost the Crag. But in that case, they would need a rock-solid guarantee that Robb will forsake his vows and sunder his alliance with the Freys due to the charms of a daughter that everyone describes as pretty, but not someone to throw away a kingdom for. The love potion is their ace in the hole -- it pretty much guarantees that Robb will do exactly as they want.

And I know one persons key evidence is another's red herring, but seriously, why bother mentioning the love potion at all if it has no bearing on Robb and Jeyne?

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9 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

 

Not really. I disagree with you both.

If you get drunk and end up killing someone in a bar fight, is the significance of you killing someone in a fight diminished by your drunkenness?

Yes, it makes your situation all the more tragic, but the infamous "I was drunk" excuse is almost never successful. And the "I was drugged" excuse won't work here.

It's one thing if someone spikes your drink and so incapacitates you so that they can do what they want without interference or resistance.

It's another thing if someone spikes your drink and you - under the influence - decide it's a good idea to go break a marriage contract (a politically savvy one at that) so that you can make another marriage contract that not only has zero political/financial gain but also makes no goddamn sense.

I agree with you up to a point. Even if the potion is not magical, Robb has no control over his emotions, any more than Bran or Dany are in control of what they see, hear and experience under the influence of their potions. Add this to the fact that Robb (and probably Jeyne as well), have no idea that they have been drugged/magicked, so they think these feelings are genuine.

But whether he is in love or no, yes, Robb still made a conscious decision to forswear his vows to the Freys, so he is ultimately responsible. But this is a far cry from saying Robb was careless or did not appreciate the seriousness of his actions because all he cared about was Jeyne. He was drugged to feel this way, and we can see as time goes by how his feelings toward her fade as the drug wears off.

And as I posted above, it also provides a more logical means for Sybell and Tywin to set up this plot, since she still controls her ravens up until her castle is taken. So all this would have been set up before Robb and Jeyne met, not after. But in this case, they would need more of a guarantee that Robb and Jeyne will fall in love rather than count on hope and luck. And since Robb is Ned's son, it isn't hard to predict that Robb will do the honorable thing once he and Jeyne do the deed.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

It turns him into the classic tragic victim.

He seems to be viewed that way regardless of whether people think he was drugged or not. 

4 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

I don't know a whole lot about Damion, except that Cersei only gave him Casterly Rock to piss off Keven.

He's likely been managing the Rock and the Westerlands for much of the war, he seems to be continuing his position as castellan. To fill in the gaps he is a nephew of Tywin's, married to a Crakehall and has two children one of whom is married to Lord Jast. He seems, from what little we know, a stable choice. 

4 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

 

But what are your thoughts on Daven? The job doesn't really suit him.

I'd disagree, his job is just to lead the West's armies and he is doing so. Obviously Jaime thinks well of him but we also know the Blackfish was wary of facing him as long ago as ACOK. 

"Ser Stafford Lannister, it's said." He turned to gaze out over the rivers, his red-and-blue cloak stirring in the breeze.

 "Another nephew?" The Lannisters of Casterly Rock were a damnably large and fertile house.

"Cousin," Ser Brynden corrected. "Brother to Lord Tywin's late wife, so twice related. An old man and a bit of a dullard, but he has a son, Ser Daven, who is more formidable."

Importantly he seems to be a formidable warrior who is pragmatic in his actions if not hiss boasts. He is sensible enough to take orders from either Jaime or Kevan despite his new title of Warden and his continuing seige rather than attacking Riverrun shows he is willing to take the less glamorous route to victory. More importantly he is a loyal soldier to House Lannister still going ahead with the marriage to a Frey he was never consulted about. 

As long as Cersei remains in kings Landing the Westerlands should be fine, her two cousins seem like sensible choices. 

4 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

 

After re-reading the convo with Jaime in AFFC Jaime V, he kind of comes off as a little more Robert than Tywin.

I don't think there is anything wrong with, Robert was the greatest military leader in the realm. If Daven seems similar then that is a good thing. Robert alone may have been a bit of a knucklehead but he listened to his more pragmatic generals, an important leadership quality, one which I think Daven shares given him even trying to keep Emmon happy. 

4 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

 

He likes drinking, women, picking on squires, and he didn't even want to be Warden of the West. He comes off as someone more interested in fighting than planning or strategy. If we think of the Seige of Riverrun as a test of how he would fair against an experienced foe, he failed pretty bad.

How so? He voiced what he wanted to do, but he had been there some time before Jaime arrived and was calm enough to listen to cooler heads. Ignoring your own instincts and listening to others is a valuable trait. 

4 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

 

He thought the seige was boring, and he didn't know enough about Brynden Tully to find any leverage over him; or even the Freys for that matter.

Jaime's leverage was Edmure, he threatened to catapult his pregnant wife over the castle.  I'm kind of glad that some branches of House Lannister are not always so ruthless. 

4 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

As a result, he wound up in a stalemate thinking the only solution would be to storm the castle. Lastly, he doesn't seem to have a reliable information network, as it seems he learned of Jaime's hand through smallfolk tales.. either through Freys or drinking in Lannisport.

He is a Warden, a military ruler. Ned, Mace and possibly Arryn had no need of spy networks. 

 

4 hours ago, Coyote_Durango said:

Edit: Also another thought, Daven is engaged to an undetermined Frey girl that may or may not have already been Black Walder'd. Yet he's going with it anyway and his justification is what happened to Robb in the Red Wedding. The irony here is that Walder Frey wouldn't have even hosted the Red Wedding without Tywin's permission and the marriage to Daven was a gift to Walder Frey as a result of the Red Wedding. Twyin likely agreed to it without the expectation Daven would be ever become Warden. Yet now here's Daven Lannister, Warden of the West, marrying a fugly Frey girl because he fears Frey retribution? Tywin would be rolling in his grave.

Why would he be rolling in his grave? House Lannister made a deal, Daven doing his duty would be something that Tywin and Kevan would be fully on board with; they were all about duty, had Tywin's own children put their family duty before their own desires they'd be in a much better place. 

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20 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And as I posted above, it also provides a more logical means for Sybell and Tywin to set up this plot, since she still controls her ravens up until her castle is taken. So all this would have been set up before Robb and Jeyne met, not after. But in this case, they would need more of a guarantee that Robb and Jeyne will fall in love rather than count on hope and luck. And since Robb is Ned's son, it isn't hard to predict that Robb will do the honorable thing once he and Jeyne do the deed.

It's worth mentioning that Sybell Spicer almost certainly wouldn't have had her own ravens at the Crag. In ADWD, Barbary Dustin tells Theon that all great houses had a Maester, and all lesser houses aspired to have one, because not having one meant that you were of little consequence. We know that the Westerlings were impoverished and were of low standing, and the book never mentions a Crag Maester. After Robb took the Crag would have been a good time to introduce one to tend Robb's wound, but instead it was of course Jeyne. So it stands to reason they didn't have a Maester, which means no ravens. Any communication between Sybell and Tywin had to be after the fact. So my guess is Robb had a Lannister spy somewhere in the camp that served as Sybell's point of contact.

57 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I don't see how we can leap to the conclusion that her love potion must be made with blood magic. It might not be magical at all.

No, I mentioned blood magic in relation to seeing the future, as that's what Maggy used. It wasn't related to any potions. Though I think I did misunderstand a part of your argument in that I thought you were suggesting Sybell used magic to see the future, like Maggy. If Sybell knew Robb was coming at all, then it most likely had to be through a spy pretty close to Robb. He was pretty mindful of unwelcome eyes when planning. Wonder who would have fit the bill.

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On ‎6‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 6:10 PM, Bernie Mac said:

He seems to be viewed that way regardless of whether people think he was drugged or not. 

Perhaps, but the difference is that if he just naturally fell for Jeyne and foreswore his vows for that love, then he is the full architect of his own downfall and pretty much bears all the consequences for what happened to him and his kingdom. If he was drugged or magicked into falling for her, then he is not culpable for that part of it, at least, although we can maybe still fault him for placing his honor above the needs of his people.

So he goes from being a complete victim of his own foolishness and pride to being a partial victim of Tywin's and Sybell's nefarious plotting.

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