Southron Ambitions question/observation

[Bael's Bastard]

On 7/10/2018 at 7:02 PM, Chaircat Meow said:

The issue, as I explained to Lord Varys, is that the anti-Targaryen rebellion, on the southron ambition theory (at least in my version of it) involves replacing the Targaryens with a new Baratheon-Stark dynasty. The only way this cam happen is if Robert becomes king with Lyanna as his queen. The fact Lyanna has eloped with Rhaegar renders this impossible; Rickard's plan is in ruins. 

Furthermore, we don;t even know what Rickard and Robert thought Rhaegar and Lynanna were doing. Was it a love match, was it rape and abduction or was it a political message, from Lyanna, that she wasn't going to play ball in the southron plot? Of course we don't know but there is going to be a lot of context to Rickard's decision to go to King's Landing which we are missing. So saying southron ambitions is wrong because Rickard did not immediately raise the banner misfires, I think. 

As for Tywin, I totally agree with you regarding Pycelle's opinion but this alone does not make Tywin a viable candidate for the throne.

I don't see any evidence for the theory that Lord Rickard and Lord Robert (or Lord Steffon before him) intended to replace the Targaryens with a new Baratheon-Stark dynasty, or for any of the theories which suggest that any or all of the lords Stark, Baratheon, Arryn, Tully, and/or Lannister had been looking to remove the Targaryens and sit the Iron Throne in their place, or establish/re-establish kingdoms in their respective regions.

Lady Dustin is our lone source for Rickard's alleged "great ambitions"/"southron ambitions," and her rants/theories about the Citadel influencing Rickard, and about Rickard's ambitions, are both explicitly about the betrothal of Rickard's heir Brandon to Catelyn Tully, a marriage which was to bring a Tully north, and infuse the Stark line with Tully ancestry.

Thus far, our lone source for a conspiracy on the part of Walys, the Citadel, and/or Rickard has made no attempt to connect the betrothal of Robert and Lyanna, which was apparently proposed by Robert, to her theory, only the betrothal of Catelyn to Brandon.

"They heal, yes. I never said they were not subtle. They tend to us when we are sick and injured, or distraught over the illness of a parent or a child. Whenever we are weakest and most vulnerable, there they are. Sometimes they heal us, and we are duly grateful. When they fail, they console us in our grief, and we are grateful for that as well. Out of gratitude we give them a place beneath our roof and make them privy to all our shames and secrets, a part of every council. And before too long, the ruler has become the ruled. "That was how it was with Lord Rickard Stark. Maester Walys was his grey rat's name. And isn't it clever how the maesters go by only one name, even those who had two when they first arrived at the Citadel? That way we cannot know who they truly are or where they come from … but if you are dogged enough, you can still find out. Before he forged his chain, Maester Walys had been known as Walys Flowers. Flowers, Hill, Rivers, Snow … we give such names to baseborn children to mark them for what they are, but they are always quick to shed them. Walys Flowers had a Hightower girl for a mother … and an archmaester of the Citadel for a father, it was rumored. The grey rats are not as chaste as they would have us believe. Oldtown maesters are the worst of all. Once he forged his chain, his secret father and his friends wasted no time dispatching him to Winterfell to fill Lord Rickard's ears with poisoned words as sweet as honey. The Tully marriage was his notion, never doubt it, he—" (ADWD - The Prince of Winterfell)

"The day I learned that Brandon was to marry Catelyn Tully, though … there was nothing sweet about that pain. He never wanted her, I promise you that. He told me so, on our last night together … but Rickard Stark had great ambitions too. Southron ambitions that would not be served by having his heir marry the daughter of one of his own vassals. Afterward my father nursed some hope of wedding me to Brandon's brother Eddard, but Catelyn Tully got that one as well. I was left with young Lord Dustin, until Ned Stark took him from me." (ADWD - The Turncloak)

[Bael's Bastard]

On 7/13/2018 at 6:53 PM, SFDanny said:

Lastly, let me state my disagreement with @Bael's Bastard, a poster I very much appreciate normally. The theory of the STAB alliance as a Anti-Targaryen alliance stands up quite well. In this case, I would argue that evidence points to Lord Rickard's southron ambitions not being a plot to put someone else on the Iron Throne, but to return Westeros to a land of Seven Kingdoms in which all the High Lords unite in an alliance to reclaim their rights as monarchs in their own lands without a Targaryen overlord. That is what the interlocking marriage pacts and fosterings appear to be all about.

Thanks, @SFDanny, the appreciation is mutual!

I don't see any evidence for a pre-war anti-Targaryen STAB alliance, regardless of the variation of the theory. But this variation of the theory seems even more far fetched to me, as I see no indication that Lord Rickard or the other lords wished to rid Westeros of the Iron Throne, and re-establish/establish independent kingdoms.

The Starks were probably one of the few great houses that could have actually received the support of all or most of their bannermen had they wished to rebel against the Targaryens and re-establish their old kingdom. The Lannisters are probably another on account of Lord Tywin. But I see no evidence that either lord had such desires, or that their marriage plots had any such purpose.

Lady Dustin emphasizes the betrothal of Catelyn to Brandon when theorizing about Rickard's great/southron ambitions and the influence of Walys and the Citadel, with no mention of the betrothal of Lord Robert and Lyanna. And Baratheons and Tullys, the two houses Rickard made betrothals with, were never kings pre-conquest, and even their status as great lords of their regions was owed to Aegon I and House Targaryen.

I see no evidence in these betrothals of a move against the Iron Throne, or to re-establish a kingdom in the north. But I do see Rickard making it likely that his male line descendants will continue to rule Winterfell, that his descendants through Lyanna will rule Storm's End, and even making it possible that male line descendants of his might one day inherit Riverrun through their mother, seeing how Lord Hoster had only one unwed/unbetrothed son at the time, and a brother that refused to wed.

In hindsight, it is easy to paint these betrothals as anti-Targaryen, but at the time, Houses Baratheon and Tully had more often than not been very close to House Targaryen, had owed their status to House Targaryen, and had been deemed worthy to marry into House Targaryen (as recently as forty years earlier, when the Baratheon daughter and Celia Tully were betrothed to Prince Duncan and Prince Jaehaerys).

[Legitimate_Bastard]

On 6/28/2018 at 7:54 PM, Allardyce said:

The Southron Ambitions is looking more like a plot by the Starks to put Robert on the throne.  They wanted to take the Targaryens out of the picture.  Brandon was going to be Robert's hand and obviously Lyanna will be his queen.  Rickard was dreaming big.  But the importance of the Targaryens to the story is greater than any plot that Rickard's little heart could have plotted out.  The Targaryens survived the Doom of Valyria and they survived Robert's Rebellion.   

Why Robert though?