Southron Ambitions question/observation

[Bael's Bastard]

On 6/29/2018 at 8:42 AM, The WolfSpider said:

Excellent information but I can't help feeling like eventually having descendants marry Targaryens isn't really an 'ambition'. It may be semantics, admittedly, as I just don't see that as something Rickard would strongly desire.  Seems more like an idle past-time to me. 

But frankly I don't see anything here after sleeping on it other than wondering what Rickard really wanted.  I don't buy anti-Targ plotting other than maybe putting Rhaegar on the chair. 

Why not? House Targaryen was the royal family, which ruled from the Iron Throne. House Stark had been reduced from kings to lords nearly three centuries earlier, and had never married with the new royal family. The closest they had come was about 150 years earlier, when Lord Cregan Stark and Prince Jacaerys Velaryon had made the "Pact of Ice and Fire" during the Dance of the Dragons, which was to wed a Targaryen princess into House Stark as part of securing House Stark's support for Queen Rhaenyra. But such a marriage never occurred.

I suppose it is possible that Lord Rickard had hoped at some point to wed Lyanna to Prince Rhaegar. She was roughly of an age with Cersei, whom Lord Tywin had hoped to wed to Rhaegar. But it is also possible that he did not have high hopes of wedding her to Rhaegar, and that Viserys would have been born too late to be considered for Lyanna. In the absence of a Targaryen prince, and with no Targaryen princesses, it would have made sense for Rickard to look to families which had marriage and blood ties to House Targaryen.

House Baratheon had such ties, and had sons close enough in age to Lyanna. The founder of House Baratheon, Orys, was himself rumored to be a bastard son of Lord Aerion Targaryen, father of King Aegon I.

The current Baratheons are presumably descended from Lord Robar Baratheon and Queen Alyssa Velaryon (widow of King Aenys, and herself supposedly the daughter of a Targaryen mother). Their daughter Jocelyn wed Prince Aemon, the eldest surviving son of King Jaehaerys I, and would have been queen had Aemon lived to succeed his father. Their daughter Rhaenys and her Velaryon children Laenor and Laena were considered in the Great Council's vote for an heir to Jaehaerys.

More recently, in 237, King Aegon V betrothed his heir Prince Duncan to a daughter of Lord Lyonel Baratheon. After Duncan broke the betrothal to wed Jenny of Oldstones, and the violence which followed, Aegon wed his youngest daughter Rhaelle to Lyonel's heir Ormund in 245, and their son Steffon, who went on to serve as a page and a squire at King's Landing and became a close companion of Prince Aerys, eldest son of King Jaehaerys II and heir to the Iron Throne, was born in 246.

So House Baratheon was a family that already had Targaryen blood, had at least twice been considered worthy to provide a bride for the heir to the Iron Throne (Aemon and Duncan, though neither became king in the end), and had decades of close and friendly relations with the current king (Aerys II) at the time Rickard betrothed Lyanna to Lord Robert.

House Arryn also had a history of ties with House Targaryen, though it is not clear if Lord Jon had any ancestry from any of those ties. Jaehaerys I wed his daughter Daella to Lord Rodrik Arryn, and their daughter Aemma wed Prince Viserys, who later became King Viserys I. All Targaryen kings after the Dance of the Dragons are descended from their daughter Rhaenyra. More recently, Prince Rhaegel wed Alys Arryn, and had three children, including Daenora, who wed Prince Aerion "Brightflame." It was their son Maegor who was passed over in 233 to crown Aegon V.

So yes, I do think it would qualify as ambition for Rickard to try to get closer to and wed with houses that were close with House Targaryen, in the hopes of eventually putting descendants of his on the Iron Throne. He might not have thought it possible to directly wed his children to Targaryens, but he could wed them to houses that House Targaryen had considered worthy to wed. That includes House Tully, as Celia Tully had been betrothed to Jaehaerys (II) before he broke his betrothal to wed his sister Shaera. Celia would have been queen had Jaehaerys not broken his betrothal, as by that time Duncan had been removed from the succession after wedding Jenny of Oldstones.

So the ties Lord Rickard made with Houses Arryn, Baratheon, and Tully were made with houses which had historically and recently had close ties with House Targaryen, which had been considered worthy to marry Targaryen princes and heirs, and to wed Targaryen daughters. If he could not directly marry his daughter or sons to Targaryen princes/princesses, these houses were the next best things, and through them, he might get descendants of his on the Iron Throne.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 6/29/2018 at 10:15 AM, Widowmaker 811 said:

That is not the case.  They only need wait a few short years if that was what they wanted.  Aerys was not long for this world.  His health was going down fast.  Rickard and Robert wanted power.  

The marriage pacts between those conniving vultures were intended for Rickard and Robert to grab power from the Targaryens.  Robert got what he wanted and ruined Westeros in the process.  The three Baratheon stooges and their allies have done more harm to the land and its people than Aerys.  

This fantasy has no basis in the books.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 6/29/2018 at 11:31 AM, The WolfSpider said:

Nothing less than regime change then since Robert is way down in line of succession. I guess it would explain why Steffon didn't find a bride.  Well that certainly doesn't lack ambition.

There weren't too many people ahead of Lord Steffon and Robert. At the time of Steffon's death, the only known male line Targaryens were King Aerys, Prince Rhaegar, and baby Prince Viserys. At the time that Jon Arryn raised his banners, there was just Aerys, Rhaegar, baby Prince Aegon, and 5-6 year old Viserys.

But there is no evidence that either Steffon or Robert desired to sit the Iron Throne, or were in any way hostile to Aerys or House Targaryen. Even after the Tourney at Harrenhal, Robert had no real beef with Aerys, just Rhaegar, and probably did not have a real beef with Aerys until Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, and Aerys executed Rickard, Brandon, Elbert, etc., and called for Jon to send him the heads of Robert and Ned. 

According to an SSM, it wasn't until well into the war, around the time of the Trident or just after, that Robert proclaimed his intention to take the throne. And from AGOT, we have statements by Robert lamenting what Jon and Ned had done to him, that one of them should have been king (to which Ned replies that he had the better claim), and that Ned or both had made him king. So it seems pretty clear that Robert did not actually want to be king, and the only Stark he "blames" for making him king is Ned, not Rickard, or some plot he or his father had with Rickard.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

Have I missed something regarding the Southron Ambitions theory? As far as I understand, Rickard wanted to marry off his children to southerners in order to create an alliance. Why is that such a big deal? Isn't it common practice?  

[Ylath's Snout]

13 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Isn't it common practice?  

The Stark haven't really intermarried with other Great Houses before Rickard from the records we have.

14 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Why is that such a big deal?

It really shouldn't be but anti-Stark posters seems to think this proves all sorts of horrible things about the Starks.

[Bael's Bastard]

36 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Have I missed something regarding the Southron Ambitions theory? As far as I understand, Rickard wanted to marry off his children to southerners in order to create an alliance. Why is that such a big deal? Isn't it common practice?  

It depends on the version of the theory. There is no evidence of a united great house alliance pre-rebellion.

Rickard fostered his second son with a house with close ties to House Tagaryen, at the same time the lord of another house with close ties to House Targaryen, and cousin and childhood friend of the king, fostered his heir with them.

Rickard betrothed his heir to the daughter of a house whose lord was seeking to wed his other daughter to the heir of another childhood friend and Hand of the king.

Rickard promised the hand of his daughter to the best friend of his second son, who had fostered with him, the young lord related to House Targaryen, whose father was cousin and childhood friend to the king, the young lord who had apparently asked Rickard for her hand because he was in love with her.

So there is no grand anti-Targ plot on the part of House Stark, Baratheon, Arryn, or Tully. Tywin might have had a plot with Rhaegar against Aerys, the Citadel might have had a plot against House Targaryen, but there was no "STAB" plot against House Targ. At least, not until the Battle of the Bells, months into the war. 

Rickard hadn't even bothered to wed two of his three sons, and apparently wasn't even the instigator of the match for his daughter. 

[Ylath's Snout]

11 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Rickard hadn't even bothered to wed two of his three sons

That really makes me think Rickard didn't any kind of time sensitive short term plans.

There has to have been plenty of southern Houses that could have been flipped by a match with Ned. Flipping the Lannisters is "optimistic" to put it mildly but there has to have been opportunities for some match if Operation: Murder-DEath-Kill Targs was the plan from the start. Houses in the Stormlands and Vale remained loyal to the Targs so there are some good targets right there.

Heck maybe a Frey match to make sure they don't get "Robb'd" when the STAB Rebellion gets rolling.

[Mladen]

3 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Have I missed something regarding the Southron Ambitions theory? As far as I understand, Rickard wanted to marry off his children to southerners in order to create an alliance. Why is that such a big deal? Isn't it common practice?  

Not for a Stark. He certainly wouldn't be the first Lord to have "southron ambitions" but certainly he was the most successful. That said, the House is on verge of breaking male line, so...

[Angel Eyes]

17 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

That really makes me think Rickard didn't any kind of time sensitive short term plans.

There has to have been plenty of southern Houses that could have been flipped by a match with Ned. Flipping the Lannisters is "optimistic" to put it mildly but there has to have been opportunities for some match if Operation: Murder-DEath-Kill Targs was the plan from the start. Houses in the Stormlands and Vale remained loyal to the Targs so there are some good targets right there.

Heck maybe a Frey match to make sure they don't get "Robb'd" when the STAB Rebellion gets rolling.

I think either the marriage between Ned and Catelyn was set before Ned left the Neck, or the Northerners found a way past the Twins, since Walder didn’t extract a toll from Ned. Maybe Jyana is a Frey?...

[Angel Eyes]

14 hours ago, Risto said:

Not for a Stark. He certainly wouldn't be the first Lord to have "southron ambitions" but certainly he was the most successful. That said, the House is on verge of breaking male line, so...

If you believe the tale of Bael the Bard, they’ve already done that.

[Ylath's Snout]

1 minute ago, Angel Eyes said:

the Northerners found a way past the Twins, since Walder didn’t extract a toll from Ned.

Which kinda makes the deal Walder forced Robb into stand out more. Sure Ned was taken but what about Benjen or some other Northern bannermen?

Could just be that Walder got real salty over all the _Late-Lord-Frey talk.

2 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Maybe Jyana is a Frey?

Wouldn't that be something. I kinda like it.

But isn't the Crannogmen/Frey relations super bad?

[BlackLightning]

3 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I think either the marriage between Ned and Catelyn was set before Ned left the Neck, or the Northerners found a way past the Twins, since Walder didn’t extract a toll from Ned. Maybe Jyana is a Frey?...

They need the Twins if they want to cross the Green Fork to get to Riverrun. They don't need the Twins to travel south.

So, on that note, I don't think Ned and Catelyn's marriage had been arranged before Ned left the North.

[BlackLightning]

14 hours ago, Risto said:

Not for a Stark. He certainly wouldn't be the first Lord to have "southron ambitions" but certainly he was the most successful. That said, the House is on verge of breaking male line, so...

What makes you say that?

Bran and Rickon are both still alive in the books.

And while Bran may be not be able to walk and he wouldn't find any form of sexual congress pleasurable but, should his wife (re: I ship Bran and Meera) take the lead, I'm sure he can still sire children.

And then, on top of that, we still don't know where the hell Benjen is.

[Angel Eyes]

23 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Why not? House Targaryen was the royal family, which ruled from the Iron Throne. House Stark had been reduced from kings to lords nearly three centuries earlier, and had never married with the new royal family. The closest they had come was about 150 years earlier, when Lord Cregan Stark and Prince Jacaerys Velaryon had made the "Pact of Ice and Fire" during the Dance of the Dragons, which was to wed a Targaryen princess into House Stark as part of securing House Stark's support for Queen Rhaenyra. But such a marriage never occurred.

I suppose it is possible that Lord Rickard had hoped at some point to wed Lyanna to Prince Rhaegar. She was roughly of an age with Cersei, whom Lord Tywin had hoped to wed to Rhaegar. But it is also possible that he did not have high hopes of wedding her to Rhaegar, and that Viserys would have been born too late to be considered for Lyanna. In the absence of a Targaryen prince, and with no Targaryen princesses, it would have made sense for Rickard to look to families which had marriage and blood ties to House Targaryen.

House Baratheon had such ties, and had sons close enough in age to Lyanna. The founder of House Baratheon, Orys, was himself rumored to be a bastard son of Lord Aerion Targaryen, father of King Aegon I.

The current Baratheons are presumably descended from Lord Robar Baratheon and Queen Alyssa Velaryon (widow of King Aenys, and herself supposedly the daughter of a Targaryen mother). Their daughter Jocelyn wed Prince Aemon, the eldest surviving son of King Jaehaerys I, and would have been queen had Aemon lived to succeed his father. Their daughter Rhaenys and her Velaryon children Laenor and Laena were considered in the Great Council's vote for an heir to Jaehaerys.

More recently, in 237, King Aegon V betrothed his heir Prince Duncan to a daughter of Lord Lyonel Baratheon. After Duncan broke the betrothal to wed Jenny of Oldstones, and the violence which followed, Aegon wed his youngest daughter Rhaelle to Lyonel's heir Ormund in 245, and their son Steffon, who went on to serve as a page and a squire at King's Landing and became a close companion of Prince Aerys, eldest son of King Jaehaerys II and heir to the Iron Throne, was born in 246.

So House Baratheon was a family that already had Targaryen blood, had at least twice been considered worthy to provide a bride for the heir to the Iron Throne (Aemon and Duncan, though neither became king in the end), and had decades of close and friendly relations with the current king (Aerys II) at the time Rickard betrothed Lyanna to Lord Robert.

House Arryn also had a history of ties with House Targaryen, though it is not clear if Lord Jon had any ancestry from any of those ties. Jaehaerys I wed his daughter Daella to Lord Rodrik Arryn, and their daughter Aemma wed Prince Viserys, who later became King Viserys I. All Targaryen kings after the Dance of the Dragons are descended from their daughter Rhaenyra. More recently, Prince Rhaegel wed Alys Arryn, and had three children, including Daenora, who wed Prince Aerion "Brightflame." It was their son Maegor who was passed over in 233 to crown Aegon V.

So yes, I do think it would qualify as ambition for Rickard to try to get closer to and wed with houses that were close with House Targaryen, in the hopes of eventually putting descendants of his on the Iron Throne. He might not have thought it possible to directly wed his children to Targaryens, but he could wed them to houses that House Targaryen had considered worthy to wed. That includes House Tully, as Celia Tully had been betrothed to Jaehaerys (II) before he broke his betrothal to wed his sister Shaera. Celia would have been queen had Jaehaerys not broken his betrothal, as by that time Duncan had been removed from the succession after wedding Jenny of Oldstones.

So the ties Lord Rickard made with Houses Arryn, Baratheon, and Tully were made with houses which had historically and recently had close ties with House Targaryen, which had been considered worthy to marry Targaryen princes and heirs, and to wed Targaryen daughters. If he could not directly marry his daughter or sons to Targaryen princes/princesses, these houses were the next best things, and through them, he might get descendants of his on the Iron Throne.

I thought Aemon didn’t have prospects. Didn’t he go to the Citadel at 9?

[Bael's Bastard]

22 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

That really makes me think Rickard didn't any kind of time sensitive short term plans.

There has to have been plenty of southern Houses that could have been flipped by a match with Ned. Flipping the Lannisters is "optimistic" to put it mildly but there has to have been opportunities for some match if Operation: Murder-DEath-Kill Targs was the plan from the start. Houses in the Stormlands and Vale remained loyal to the Targs so there are some good targets right there.

Heck maybe a Frey match to make sure they don't get "Robb'd" when the STAB Rebellion gets rolling.

Yes, if Rickard had the ambitions some wish to project onto him, he no doubt would have made more of an effort to wed his adult son Eddard to someone. As you note, a number of notable houses from the Vale, Stormlands, and Riverlands remained loyal to the Targaryens, which could have been brought to the side of the rebel alliance, had such a premeditated alliance existed before the war.

Not to mention attempting to bring Lord Tywin (one of the few great lords who could have brought all the houses of his region in on whatever side he chose), or Lord Mace or one of his powerful bannermen, or one of the notable houses of Dorne (such as the Daynes or Yronwoods) into the alliance.

Yet, not only did Rickard's adult son Eddard and youngest son Benjen remain unbetrothed going into Harrenhal, so did Lord Hoster's son/heir Edmure and youngest daughter Lysa, and Lord Robert's adult brother/heir Stannis and (less surprisingly) child brother Renly, and it is not clear whether or not Lord Arryn's nephew/heir Elbert was betrothed or wed. So many important pieces, and no yet no sign of urgency to use them.

I have no doubt that Lord Rickard and Lord Hoster both had their own personal ambitions for their houses, but I am more inclined to think they were more akin to Lord Tywin's ambitions re: House Targaryen in the early-to-mid 270s, than to some anti-Targaryen ambition, as some like to project backwards from hindsight.

Prince Rhaegar and Lord Tywin were perhaps the most likely men in Westeros to have actually been plotting against King Aerys prior to Harrenhal, and that was obviously more of an internal Targaryen conflict, probably intended to restrict or depose an increasingly unstable and dangerous-to-those-closest-to-him king, than an anti-Targaryen plot.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

I thought Aemon didn’t have prospects. Didn’t he go to the Citadel at 9?

I am referring to Prince Aemon Targaryen, the second [but eldest surviving] son of King Jaehaerys I and Queen Alysanne, and heir to the Iron Throne until his death in 92 AC.

Aemon wed Jocelyn Baratheon, the daughter of Lord Robar Baratheon and King Aenys's widow Queen Alyssa Velaryon, who was also the mother of Aemon's parents King Jaehaerys I and Queen Alysanne.

Aemon and Jocelyn's daughter was Princess Rhaenys Targaryen, who wed Lord Corlys Velaryon, and whose children were Laena and Laenor Velaryon.

[Lord Varys]

I'm completely in agreement with @Bael's Bastard here. The whole idea of this 'STAB alliance' thing is not supported by the facts we have, nor is it particularly likely that such a grand conspiracy would have made sense in that environment. Those are great houses in a monarchy we are speaking about here, a world where control of the throne was the ultimate price.

The way to get there was not to conspire against the ruling dynasty but to try to weasel your way into that dynasty - through marriage. That is how the Hightowers tried to do it repeatedly, eventually succeeding during the reign of Viserys I.

Such ideas also fail to realize that marriage alliances and ties through kinship and marriage seldom help to cement lasting alliances, much less far-reaching conspiracies.

And while Lord Rickard's ambitions may have aimed ultimately at the throne it is, quite frankly, much more likely that his 'southron ambitions' were actually more modest in nature, aimed at giving House Stark greater prominence and a greater role in the affairs of the Realm than they had in the past. The Starks are a great house but, quite frankly, they have pretty much no weight outside of the North which means they do not wield much power or influence in the Seven Kingdoms.

If that's correct then Rickard just wanted to raise the standing of his house by intermarrying with the Tullys of Riverrun and the Baratheons of Storm's End - although the latter really seems to be a love match on Robert's part, something that had little and less to do with Lord Rickard's 'ambitions' - only in the sense that Rickard permitted such a marriage. We know it wasn't his idea.

[Mladen]

4 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

What makes you say that?

Bran and Rickon are both still alive in the books.

And while Bran may be not be able to walk and he wouldn't find any form of sexual congress pleasurable but, should his wife (re: I ship Bran and Meera) take the lead, I'm sure he can still sire children.

And then, on top of that, we still don't know where the hell Benjen is.

Bran is not able to sire children as we have been told. Medically speaking, it is incorrect, but hey, this is a fantasy books. GRRM wrote it that way and we'll leave it to that.

Rickon is alive, yes, but many people believe that his story is leading nowhere (Shaggydog story). Jon is not a Stark, Benjen is a brother of NW. That means that the only two Starks that can continue the line are Sansa and Arya.

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

If you believe the tale of Bael the Bard, they’ve already done that.

Maternal lines are quite important in ASOIAF, so yeah, I buy that story.

 

[The WolfSpider]

On 7/2/2018 at 12:04 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

There weren't too many people ahead of Lord Steffon and Robert. At the time of Steffon's death, the only known male line Targaryens were King Aerys, Prince Rhaegar, and baby Prince Viserys. At the time that Jon Arryn raised his banners, there was just Aerys, Rhaegar, baby Prince Aegon, and 5-6 year old Viserys.

But there is no evidence that either Steffon or Robert desired to sit the Iron Throne, or were in any way hostile to Aerys or House Targaryen. Even after the Tourney at Harrenhal, Robert had no real beef with Aerys, just Rhaegar, and probably did not have a real beef with Aerys until Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, and Aerys executed Rickard, Brandon, Elbert, etc., and called for Jon to send him the heads of Robert and Ned. 

According to an SSM, it wasn't until well into the war, around the time of the Trident or just after, that Robert proclaimed his intention to take the throne. And from AGOT, we have statements by Robert lamenting what Jon and Ned had done to him, that one of them should have been king (to which Ned replies that he had the better claim), and that Ned or both had made him king. So it seems pretty clear that Robert did not actually want to be king, and the only Stark he "blames" for making him king is Ned, not Rickard, or some plot he or his father had with Rickard.

Women can inherit too though. I don't see them handing the dynasty over to a Baratheon over a Targaryen woman,  even if it meant possible rebellion

[Angel Eyes]

46 minutes ago, The WolfSpider said:

Women can inherit too though. I don't see them handing the dynasty over to a Baratheon over a Targaryen woman,  even if it meant possible rebellion

Targaryens will go out of their way to not have a woman on the throne. Just look at Rhaenyra, Daena the Defiant and Vaella daughter of Daeron the Drunk.