What made Stannis suspicious?

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, Risto said:

Let we not forget that Robert was supposed to have 16 bastards. It wasn't just one or two... If my count is correct, beside Barra, there were 11 other bastards in whore houses of King's Landing looking exactly like Robert (unless we argue that he sired bastards all over the kingdom, which is possibility as we do know he traveled to Highgarden and was involved in Balon's Rebellion)

Plot gets what plot demands... The first rule of literature

 

Yeah, I know. I almost added that to my post. In a setting where looks and custom-made genetics are all the proof you're going to get, the only reason no one was openly suspicious [much] sooner is... the plot demanded!

 

[Mladen]

Just now, kissdbyfire said:

Yeah, I know. I almost added that to my post. In a setting where looks and custom-made genetics are all the proof you're going to get, the only reason no one was openly suspicious [much] sooner is... the plot demanded!

Just like I hate the hypothetical questions like "What if Jon looked Targaryen?"... It is all the plot.

But, one thing is interesting. No one seems to have some huge problems swallowing this. Once Stannis started his campaign, it wasn't some difficult job convincing others. That said, people just choose to believe or not believe it, based on what suited them.

[kissdbyfire]

30 minutes ago, Risto said:

Just like I hate the hypothetical questions like "What if Jon looked Targaryen?"... It is all the plot.

Same here. I understand some like to speculate on what could have been. I'm not one. I'm really into the story we are reading, and any meaningful change in the narrative, changes everything.

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But, one thing is interesting. No one seems to have some huge problems swallowing this. Once Stannis started his campaign, it wasn't some difficult job convincing others. That said, people just choose to believe or not believe it, based on what suited them.

True. I wonder how many who weren't sold on it from the get-go, the ones who didn't believe Stannis at first, have had a change of heart after Tywin bit it. I don't think we have any concrete info on this but I'd be willing to bet that Tywin's death changed some lords' minds.  

[The Sleeper]

16 hours ago, Risto said:

Yes, destabilization is a long game. Telling Stannis about incest and knowing how Stannis would react would mean immediate war. Which ultimately happened. It was a year between Stannis learning the truth and the war. 

Varys wanted to destabilize kingdoms but this was a too hasty chaos that was erupting. I doubt Varys had anything to do with it other than watching everything happen right in front of his eyes.

In either way it was not immediate war. What Stannis did was secure Arryn's support, though they did seem to be gearing up for war. With Arryn's murder the whole thing was postponed even further.

While invading during a civil war would have been ideal, undermining the regime would be to Varys' benefit at any time. Maybe Varys and Illyrio got the timing wrong. Or maybe Varys didn't have anything to do withit.

He still was the only person whose agenda would have been promoted by something like this.

15 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But as the conversation between Illyrio and Varys showed, they were not ready to pull the trigger yet. On the other hand, Petyr was. As the letter he had Lysa send to Catelyn and his claim that the Valyrian dagger belonged to Tyrion showed, he was trying to provoke the Stark-Lannister conflict. By setting the Jon Arryn inquiry in motion and then having Jon murdered, Petyr was able to frame the Lannisters in the eyes of the Starks. 

He could have accomplished that by simply telling Ned about the incest, or even pointing him in the right direction. But apart from vague accusations and imploring Ned to let this go he did no such thing.

Why not? From one hand he wanted a patsy for the murder he commited and from the other he wanted to maintain the status quo. Before Stannis approached Jon Arryn, LF was at the height of his power. He had carte blance control of the kingdom's finances, Robert's ear and who knows how many like Slynt on the payroll. He would have been the last one to want to upset that situation. Which gives him a pretty good motive for having Jon Arryn murdered.

[Giant Ice Spider]

Here's a quote from Eddard VII:

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Oh, Cersei is lovely to look at, truly, but cold … the way she guards her cunt, you'd think she had all the gold of Casterly Rock between her legs.

Robert could have made a similar comment to Stannis as he did to Ned. That could set off the train of thought of "well if she guards her cunt so damned much, how has Robert three children by her?" This triggers a series of mental questions that may have ultimately led Stannis to discovering the truth.

[kissdbyfire]

36 minutes ago, Giant Ice Spider said:

Here's a quote from Eddard VII:

Robert could have made a similar comment to Stannis as he did to Ned. That could set off the train of thought of "well if she guards her cunt so damned much, how has Robert three children by her?" This triggers a series of mental questions that may have ultimately led Stannis to discovering the truth.

I don't think so. After all, Robert himself is not suspicious of anything because of this. Meaning, even if 'Cersei guards her cunt' so fiercely the maths works in his head. She doesn't let Robert anywhere near her very much but they clearly have had sex enough times and roughly at the right times for him to think the kids are his. 

[Giant Ice Spider]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don't think so. After all, Robert himself is not suspicious of anything because of this. Meaning, even if 'Cersei guards her cunt' so fiercely the maths works in his head. She doesn't let Robert anywhere near her very much but they clearly have had sex enough times and roughly at the right times for him to think the kids are his. 

It may not set off alarm bells in Robert's head, but Stannis doesn't know when Robert and Cersei had sex, so it could still set off alarm bells in his.

[Mladen]

6 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

In either way it was not immediate war. What Stannis did was secure Arryn's support, though they did seem to be gearing up for war. With Arryn's murder the whole thing was postponed even further.

While invading during a civil war would have been ideal, undermining the regime would be to Varys' benefit at any time. Maybe Varys and Illyrio got the timing wrong. Or maybe Varys didn't have anything to do withit.

He still was the only person whose agenda would have been promoted by something like this.

Well, it was as we do know Stannis has been calling banners and gathering swords on Dragonstone. We do know that Tywin felt threatened by Catelyn's actions that he unleashed first Gregor and then Jaime on Riverlands. 

Had war happened, the realm would be far more united then it ever was. Look at this. Ned tells Robert about Cersei. Robert declares war on Casterly Rock. Who does Tywin have to support him. Starks, Tullys and Arryns are already with Baratheons. He can turn to Tyrells, like he did in Wo5K, but Renly and Loras wanted to make Margaery Queen in place of Cersei so that plan would become fruitful. Martells already hated them and I believe Oberyn would gladly join Robert in his campaign against the Rock. Yes, Kingdom would bleed, but it would get out of it united more than it has ever been.

Varys wanted kingdom to eat itself from inside. Turning everyone against one enemy would be crazy and do nothing. 

[The Sleeper]

13 minutes ago, Risto said:

Well, it was as we do know Stannis has been calling banners and gathering swords on Dragonstone. We do know that Tywin felt threatened by Catelyn's actions that he unleashed first Gregor and then Jaime on Riverlands. 

Had war happened, the realm would be far more united then it ever was. Look at this. Ned tells Robert about Cersei. Robert declares war on Casterly Rock. Who does Tywin have to support him. Starks, Tullys and Arryns are already with Baratheons. He can turn to Tyrells, like he did in Wo5K, but Renly and Loras wanted to make Margaery Queen in place of Cersei so that plan would become fruitful. Martells already hated them and I believe Oberyn would gladly join Robert in his campaign against the Rock. Yes, Kingdom would bleed, but it would get out of it united more than it has ever been.

Varys wanted kingdom to eat itself from inside. Turning everyone against one enemy would be crazy and do nothing. 

You think the Lannisters and Tywin would go down without cost? Political, as well as in lives and resources? The first cost would be the Lannisters themselves. The throne wouldn't have their gold and troops any more. Subduing the Westerlands would be a long and difficult task that would weaken the rest severely.

And just how solid do you think Robert's reputation would be if it became known that his wife gave him three bastards born of her brother?

I mean, the scenario is about civil war between the king and his most powerful supporter, due to enormous scandal. And you think that the kingdom would emerge stronger?

Well, I guess that is your prerogative. 

[Mladen]

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

You think the Lannisters and Tywin would go down without cost? Political, as well as in lives and resources? The first cost would be the Lannisters themselves. The throne wouldn't have their gold and troops any more. Subduing the Westerlands would be a long and difficult task that would weaken the rest severely.

And just how solid do you think Robert's reputation would be if it became known that his wife gave him three bastards born of her brother?

I mean, the scenario is about civil war between the king and his most powerful supporter, due to enormous scandal. And you think that the kingdom would emerge stronger?

Well, I guess that is your prerogative. 

Yes, but in that scenario, Tywin would be without an ally. It is not whether he would go down without a cost, it is what would happen afterwards. We would end up with the united kingdom. Why do you think Tywin was so quick to attack Riverlands? Or why he wanted to foster Robin Arryn? He felt isolated. And the beginning of Wo5K proves that. He could have had war against Starks and Tullys, but he was afraid of Lysa Arryn joining, Stannis and Renly too. At the beginning, he was alone. He wasn't in such a good place.

As for finances of the Crown, if Renly plan succeeded, rich Lannisters would be swapped with almost equally rich Tyrells. 

Yes, kingdom would be tied up together. No doubt about that. The best way to unite people is to give them common enemy. And no one really liked Tywin.