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19 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Long story short, by expressing open disdain for the working classes (both in policies and in speech) Macron broke a tacit covenant between rulers and people that rulers should always keep the common interest in mind.
Macron has openly sided with the rich and finance when most heads of state at least pretend to have the interests of the common man at heart (heck, even Trump might have been a better communicator on this one) ; now people from the working classes are angry, very angry.
And ordering the CRS to make us of unprecedent force against demonstrators is not going to help.

Yeah, one thing that really surprised me was how badly Macron handled the PR on this crisis, especially considering that his image was one of the major things that got him elected.

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On 12/9/2018 at 9:32 PM, Rippounet said:

For anyone who can read French, this analysis by Hayat from the CNRS is very interesting:

https://samuelhayat.wordpress.com/2018/12/05/les-gilets-jaunes-leconomie-morale-et-le-pouvoir/?fbclid=IwAR3uC8jRY3O08pxI2ZxiOXFpycrV1s9LDU0SnDiM5Fnaxa55ZWz1lHbAzsY

Long story short, by expressing open disdain for the working classes (both in policies and in speech) Macron broke a tacit covenant between rulers and people that rulers should always keep the common interest in mind.
Macron has openly sided with the rich and finance when most heads of state at least pretend to have the interests of the common man at heart (heck, even Trump might have been a better communicator on this one) ; now people from the working classes are angry, very angry.
And ordering the CRS to make us of unprecedent force against demonstrators is not going to help.

There's also the fact that Macron has been using the national debt to say that you can't have public spending anymore. But now a lot of people are questioning... the very legitimacy of that national debt and analysing closely the reasons why it exploded in the last 45 years.
In other words, Macron has unleashed a beast that he may find himself unable to control. If he doesn't act quickly and efficiently there's a real chance that he finds himself with a general strike on his hands.
Because let's not forget... He only got about 25% of the vote in the first place... In the second round of the election most people who voted for him were trying to prevent the far-right from winning...

Yes. And at the same time, does he care?
There was an excellent analysis in Le Monde Diplomatique a few years back about Hollande's "socialist" party and how it committed electoral suicide by embracing neo-liberalism and betraying the left.
Now we have Macron who until recently was Hollande's finance minister (and thus directly responsible for Hollande not seeking re-election, very ironically).
I don't think these people genuinely care about re-election anymore.
They know the French don't want neo-liberalism. In the last presidential election, a solid majority (55%) of voters chose a candidate who on some level or the other was vocally against neo-liberalism ; and it's not clear that the remaining 45% really voted for neo-liberalism (and not for something else).
Macron got elected because people believed neo-liberalism was still a bit better than neo-fascism. But he is making many people reconsider this assumption. I think he's perfectly aware that very few people will vote for him again and that he'll have to rely on the threat of the far-right to get re-elected anyway, so why the fuck would he care? He got there because he had the support of the rich and he's implementing their agenda. The rest is all smoke and mirrors...

I’m no Macron fan, but from what I read a while ago, he realised that France had to be weaned off socialism or face ultimate collapse. So to him it is not about his personal political future in this instance, it is about an honest ideal of saving France from socialist disaster. 

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25 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I’m no Macron fan, but from what I read a while ago, he realised that France had to be weaned off socialism or face ultimate collapse. So to him it is not about his personal political future in this instance, it is about an honest ideal of saving France from socialist disaster. 

Yes, that would make sense... if there was such a thing as a "socialist disaster" or even "ultimate collapse." Problem is, socialism works very well in the country while cutting taxes for the rich and finance is now universally recognized as an actual disaster.

Two things that work very well for instance: the socialized healthcare system and socialized higher education, both of which are flaming disasters in the US (on top of my head :rolleyes:). Some of the reasons why France has such a thing as social mobility and a decent GINI coefficient (0,29) for an OECD country, unlike the US which is trailing behind next to Turkey. It's even cost-efficient, with the national healthcare system barely having a deficit at all (300M, which is close to nothing for such a developed country). If anything, socialism has seldom worked better...

But hey keep on spouting your conservative bullshit about "ultimate collapse," and all that. At least people can see how full of shit you are...

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My personal ideas and feelings aside, it's way too early to predict the results of the 2022 French elections. Macron going 150% neo-liberal in his first years in office doesn't mean he won't be able to improve his electoral prospects in time. In fact, I have always assumed that his strategy was 3 years of neo-liberalism followed by two years of pseudo-social measures to balance things out - or something similar. If there's no massive immigration flux or terrorist attack before 2022 it should work - though by a smaller margin next time.

It's still a risky strategy of course, because you never know what'll happen... It also depends whether he pushes for further neo-liberal reforms right now or decides he'd be better off leaving them for a second term... Shooting for a second term would be a "classic" political move because for some reason people stomach reforms much more easily when they're diluted over a longer time frame... IF Macron is indeed a politician and not a puppet for powerful interests (which is my personal pet theory, as I said).

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5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

So it seems it’s cakes and guillotines time.  The only question is will this lead to the far right taking over?

I'm guessing yes. Unless someone from the left pops up that excites people I think Marine le Pen  has a pretty clear run. Macron possibly only won because so much of the left was desperate to prevent le Pen from winning. Now much of that voter bloc might just decide to stay home if there isn't a good candidate from the left.

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@Rippounet,

Why do you think he will recover from his terrible polling? My understanding is that he was never that popular, but he was the best of bad choices initially and then was the obvious choice once it was just down to him and Le Pen. Since the election his polling has consistently gone down. I doubt he can win reelection absent some kind of miraculous turnaround.  

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1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I'm guessing yes. Unless someone from the left pops up that excites people I think Marine le Pen  has a pretty clear run. Macron possibly only won because so much of the left was desperate to prevent le Pen from winning. Now much of that voter bloc might just decide to stay home if there isn't a good candidate from the left.

I think it's possible, but I don't know how bullish one should be about this take. I do, however, think there's a good chance that right wing populism spreads across Europe over the next handful of years, which is a scary thought to have. 

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I am also deeply interested to learn how the disaster that is BREXIT -- you name it in whatever form and BREXIT is a disaster already for the UK -- will play out ultimately in the European Union.

Gads, how much longer can the UK keep playing this game of going going going going but never gone, which, with the help of the most financially ignorant person in the world, who is 'running' the USA economy into the ground, is creating international economic volatility.

 

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59 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think it's possible, but I don't know how bullish one should be about this take. I do, however, think there's a good chance that right wing populism spreads across Europe over the next handful of years, which is a scary thought to have. 

I wonder if it was actually predictable that in an increasingly connected world one of the consequences of this would be a resurgence of toxic nationalism and xenophobia. I think it probably was predictable. Just because people can see more of the world from the comfort of their own home, doesn't mean they will look at the world holistically and feel part of something even bigger. Just as likely people will see more of the world and decide that they want to stay in their corner of it, keep it the way it is, and not let what's outside in, thus xenophobic nationalism.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

My understanding is that he was never that popular, but he was the best of bad choices initially and then was the obvious choice once it was just down to him and Le Pen.

Yes, that's pretty much what I wrote yesterday.

But it's way to soon to call the election for Le Pen nonetheless. Even if one assumes that Le Pen will reach the second round of the next presidential election (a relatively safe bet at this point, but not 100% certain), we don't even know who else will be running in three years and who will reach the second round of the election. Last year it turned out there were three major candidates that could have ended facing Le Pen: the right-wing candidate Fillon, the left-wing candidate Mélenchon, and Macron. Macron ended up winning because no one knew for certain just how neo-liberal he would really be, thus gathering votes on both the left and the right in both rounds of the election.
Depending on who is running in three years on the right and on the left we could end up with another very uncertain election. Any center-right or center-left candidate managing to reach the second round is almost guaranteed to win against Le Pen. At this point in time, neither Wauquiez on the right nor Mélenchon on the left are that popular, so there's a lot of room for surprises. On top of my head, a centrist like Bayrou could very well end up gathering just enough votes to be the one facing Le Pen.
Then there's the fact that Le Pen's popularity is itself uncertain. She's good, but it remains to be seen if she can really go above 50% regardless of who she is facing. Even assuming we keep the same basic scenario, Wauquiez, Mélenchon, or even Macron could still get just enough votes to win against her.

To put it differently, it depends on the usual factors: the strength of the economy and the strength of right-wing populism, the latter being fairly dependent on whether there are terrorist attacks and/or immigration waves.
Edit: also, funnily enough, Macron could take a lot of heat off Europe, making euroscepticism less powerful next time. He's pretty much demonstrated that Europe isn't responsible for everything.

There's even a lot of uncertainty concerning the potential candidates. Except for Macron himself, all the other candidates could face a challenge within their own party. Wauquiez is rather weak on the right, Mélenchon could be challenged by Ruffin (for example), and Marine Le Pen is very likely to face a challenge from her niece Marion (who's been "brand-building" for a while now). Such challenges can either consolidate a candidate or weaken them. And the popularity of minor candidates matters a great deal in the end: both right-wing and left-wing candidates (Wauquiez and Mélenchon at this point) could lose votes to "alternatives", allowing the other to reach the second round. Mélenchon has to contend with Hamon on the left, and Wauquiez will have to deal with challenges from center-right politicians like Pécresse at least, possibly even Juppé if he's still in the game. Even Le Pen is not immune to being weakened by another right-wing populist (like Lassalle or Dupont-Aignan are trying to be).
It's... It's a mess. 'tis why I'm trying to say it's way too soon to predict much. The last election was only decided in the final months. The next one is likely to be the same.

Worst bit is... the presidential election is not everything. Macron was kind of an outsider last time, so he got a parliamentary majority thanks to that. That scenario is unlikely to happen again methinks. Next time both the presidential election and the following legislative elections will be hotly contested, because whoever wins the presidency will be facing tremendous opposition for the legislatives. Macron surprised the opposition last time by pre-emptively destroying the traditional parties on the left and right ; he cannot do that twice.

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Why do you think he will recover from his terrible polling?

I'm not saying he will. I'm saying he can. He doesn't need to recover completely. If there are many solid candidates next time around he may only need to gather less than 20% or thereabouts of the vote in the first round of the presidential election and he'll still have decent odds of beating Le Pen in the second round. Because while @The Anti-Targ is correct in saying that many left-wing voters will abstain in the event of a Macron-Le Pen face-off, there will also be many who will still painfully prefer neo-liberalism to neo-fascism, because leftists are like that. So all he needs to do is make himself just palatable enough for people to refuse a Le Pen presidency. I think he can achieve that with a handful of social measures and a good campaign throughout 2021. In fact, it's almost certain that he is already betting on that. And again, the strength of the economy will mean the world at that point: if no major crisis hits and growth is solid while the budget deficit keeps shrinking his odds will actually be fairly good.

Edit: and a shorter answer would be that there are precedents. All recent French presidents and prime ministers have had to face major social movements, demonstrations, and unpopularity. Some of them did recover in time to have a shot at winning the next elections.

 

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1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

Yes, that's pretty much what I wrote yesterday.

But it's way to soon to call the election for Le Pen nonetheless. Even if one assumes that Le Pen will reach the second round of the next presidential election (a relatively safe bet at this point, but not 100% certain), we don't even know who else will be running in three years and who will reach the second round of the election. Last year it turned out there were three major candidates that could have ended facing Le Pen: the right-wing candidate Fillon, the left-wing candidate Mélenchon, and Macron. Macron ended up winning because no one knew for certain just how neo-liberal he would really be, thus gathering votes on both the left and the right in both rounds of the election.
Depending on who is running in three years on the right and on the left we could end up with another very uncertain election. Any center-right or center-left candidate managing to reach the second round is almost guaranteed to win against Le Pen. At this point in time, neither Wauquiez on the right nor Mélenchon on the left are that popular, so there's a lot of room for surprises. On top of my head, a centrist like Bayrou could very well end up gathering just enough votes to be the one facing Le Pen.
Then there's the fact that Le Pen's popularity is itself uncertain. She's good, but it remains to be seen if she can really go above 50% regardless of who she is facing. Even assuming we keep the same basic scenario, Wauquiez, Mélenchon, or even Macron could still get just enough votes to win against her.

To put it differently, it depends on the usual factors: the strength of the economy and the strength of right-wing populism, the latter being fairly dependent on whether there are terrorist attacks and/or immigration waves.
Edit: also, funnily enough, Macron could take a lot of heat off Europe, making euroscepticism less powerful next time. He's pretty much demonstrated that Europe isn't responsible for everything.

There's even a lot of uncertainty concerning the potential candidates. Except for Macron himself, all the other candidates could face a challenge within their own party. Wauquiez is rather weak on the right, Mélenchon could be challenged by Ruffin (for example), and Marine Le Pen is very likely to face a challenge from her niece Marion (who's been "brand-building" for a while now). Such challenges can either consolidate a candidate or weaken them. And the popularity of minor candidates matters a great deal in the end: both right-wing and left-wing candidates (Wauquiez and Mélenchon at this point) could lose votes to "alternatives", allowing the other to reach the second round. Mélenchon has to contend with Hamon on the left, and Wauquiez will have to deal with challenges from center-right politicians like Pécresse at least, possibly even Juppé if he's still in the game. Even Le Pen is not immune to being weakened by another right-wing populist (like Lassalle or Dupont-Aignan are trying to be).
It's... It's a mess. 'tis why I'm trying to say it's way too soon to predict much. The last election was only decided in the final months. The next one is likely to be the same.

Worst bit is... the presidential election is not everything. Macron was kind of an outsider last time, so he got a parliamentary majority thanks to that. That scenario is unlikely to happen again methinks. Next time both the presidential election and the following legislative elections will be hotly contested, because whoever wins the presidency will be facing tremendous opposition for the legislatives. Macron surprised the opposition last time by pre-emptively destroying the traditional parties on the left and right ; he cannot do that twice.

I'm not saying he will. I'm saying he can. He doesn't need to recover completely. If there are many solid candidates next time around he may only need to gather less than 20% or thereabouts of the vote in the first round of the presidential election and he'll still have decent odds of beating Le Pen in the second round. Because while @The Anti-Targ is correct in saying that many left-wing voters will abstain in the event of a Macron-Le Pen face-off, there will also be many who will still painfully prefer neo-liberalism to neo-fascism, because leftists are like that. So all he needs to do is make himself just palatable enough for people to refuse a Le Pen presidency. I think he can achieve that with a handful of social measures and a good campaign throughout 2021. In fact, it's almost certain that he is already betting on that. And again, the strength of the economy will mean the world at that point: if no major crisis hits and growth is solid while the budget deficit keeps shrinking his odds will actually be fairly good.

Edit: and a shorter answer would be that there are precedents. All recent French presidents and prime ministers have had to face major social movements, demonstrations, and unpopularity. Some of them did recover in time to have a shot at winning the next elections.

 

That's the optimistic (if you can call having to choose between neo-lib and neo-fascist "optimistic") view. The pessimistic view is that people on the left will say "Screw this! Either way I'm getting f$#ked. I would rather not participate in deciding whether to be shafted with a broom handle or a nightstick. So I'm out, until someone I can actually believe in comes along."

The counter to that is, of course, a substantial number of people who sat out Trump v Clinton are perhaps now thinking, "Hmmm maybe I should have held my nose and voted for Clinton." But a lot of people will still be thinking "Clinton might have been less bad, but I still wouldn't vote for her if I could go back."

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5 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

That's the optimistic (if you can call having to choose between neo-lib and neo-fascist "optimistic") view. The pessimistic view is that people on the left will say "Screw this! Either way I'm getting f$#ked. I would rather not participate in deciding whether to be shafted with a broom handle or a nightstick. So I'm out, until someone I can actually believe in comes along."

You're focusing an awful lot on the left, but less than 30% of voters chose left-wing candidates in the first round of the presidential election last year. The "traditional right" candidate alone got 20%, coming very close to Le Pen (and Macron) in spite of the scandal that nearly killed his campaign.

I'm not optimistic. I'm looking at the numbers, and they don't tell the story you're trying to tell. Simply put, you're focusing on the left-right divide when French politics are now a 4-way game at least. Fact is, Macron could conceivably be reelected withour a single leftist voting for him, and that ain't gonna happen if he's facing Le Pen.

It hurts me to say it, but Le Pen's best road to the presidency is if she's facing a left-wing candidate in the second round. There will always be a significant proportion of leftist voters who will do everything they can to halt the spread of neo-fascism. Conservatives are the ones who will massively abstain (or worse) if they have to choose between the left and the far-right.

No offense, but I know the politics, I know the numbers, and I'm right there on the ground. What are you basing your assertions on?

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I don't see it here yet, so here's Macron's pitch from a few hours ago:

Quote

Speaking in a televised address, Mr Macron condemned the violence but said the protesters' anger was "deep, and in many ways legitimate".

The minimum wage would increase by €100 per month from 2019, he said.

A planned tax increase for low-income pensioners would be cancelled, overtime pay would no longer be taxed, and employers would be encouraged to pay a tax-free end of year bonus to employees, he added.

However, he refused to reinstate a tax on the wealthy, saying "this would weaken us, we need to create jobs".

The minimum wage will be increased by 7% - and the cost of this increase will be met by the government rather than employers.

...

Mr Macron, a former banker, has previously been criticised for being out of touch and not listening to the struggles of ordinary people.

He sought to change this impression on Monday, pledging to meet mayors from all the regions of France, and encourage "unprecedented debate".

"We must tackle the question of immigration," he added, while also urging the nation to come together to "change in order to take into account climate change and other challenges".

There will probably be some protest next weekend anyway, but I wonder if this is enough to diminish it to the point where it is no longer international news or if the protests can sustain their intensity.

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Holy shit. Macron is one of them tax cuts for the rich creates jobs people. Shouldn't be surprised really.

He's offering an employment subsidy as a faux increase in the minimum wage, all while offering not to tax people. And somehow this is being put forward as an economically sustainable plan? I'm not even sure that would be WTO compliant for any businesses that are exporting or competing with imports.

Did he actually plan to increase taxes on low income pensioners? How in any reality could that have been conceived as a good idea, or even one that would generate much revenue? That's so bad by itself, but along with a tax cut for the rich, it's insanity.

Overtime should be taxed, it's income. And end of year bonus, OK, make that tax free, but it shouldn't really be tax free.

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5 minutes ago, Altherion said:

There will probably be some protest next weekend anyway, but I wonder if this is enough to diminish it to the point where it is no longer international news or if the protests can sustain their intensity.

With Christmas around the corner, it's likely that the protests will abate anyway, though I would expect the most radical elements to continue to wreak as much havoc as they can. So paradoxically, the movement should progressively weaken in the next couple of weeks, but we could still see some violence in the streets at least next saturday.

Quote

 

The minimum wage would increase by €100 per month from 2019, he said.

[...]

The minimum wage will be increased by 7% - and the cost of this increase will be met by the government rather than employers. 

 

Such bullshit... So first the increase will come from the government, in other words, the taxpayer. Second, it will mostly consist in the rise of a bonus for low-earners called "prime d'activité" (something like the Earned Income Tax Credit in the US). Except a rise was already planned, it is only being sped up. And not everyone, even among the low-earners, will benefit from it (people working part-time for example, will not get it). This is not me making this up or anything, the promise of a 60€ rise by 2021 and all the pre-conditions can still be found on the official website:
https://www.economie.gouv.fr/particuliers/estimation-prime-activite
The actual rise of the minimum wage will be of 1,8% according to the media. Smoke and mirrors again...

Some of the other promises are more substantial. There is an actual something for low-income pensioners among other things (well, them not being taxed more after all, so that's hardly an actual gift). He's "encouraging" employers to give end-of-the-year bonuses to their employees "if they can" and they will be free of tax (for both employers and employees). Oh, and he promised to be strict on immigration... Because, you know, thinking about 2022 and Le Pen never hurts...

To me it's a big nothingburger, which is why I didn't comment on it. It's always hard to know whether people will buy that kind of crap or not. In this case, I want to say "not so much" but the very fact that he did address the nation and promise some things will be welcomed by many. People will want a few quiet weeks with their family anyway. I'm already wondering what the spring will look like, because the next big "reform" on the table is pensions. Whatever minor measures the government implements in the next few weeks or months, people will not take it well when that one comes.

I'm tempted to say this was only the beginning.

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1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

You're focusing an awful lot on the left, but less than 30% of voters chose left-wing candidates in the first round of the presidential election last year. The "traditional right" candidate alone got 20%, coming very close to Le Pen (and Macron) in spite of the scandal that nearly killed his campaign.

I'm not optimistic. I'm looking at the numbers, and they don't tell the story you're trying to tell. Simply put, you're focusing on the left-right divide when French politics are now a 4-way game at least. Fact is, Macron could conceivably be reelected withour a single leftist voting for him, and that ain't gonna happen if he's facing Le Pen.

It hurts me to say it, but Le Pen's best road to the presidency is if she's facing a left-wing candidate in the second round. There will always be a significant proportion of leftist voters who will do everything they can to halt the spread of neo-fascism. Conservatives are the ones who will massively abstain (or worse) if they have to choose between the left and the far-right.

No offense, but I know the politics, I know the numbers, and I'm right there on the ground. What are you basing your assertions on?

Fair. I'm more basing things off the way the nationalistic wind is blowing through the west generally and thinking that there's unlikely to be anything special about France that makes it more immune to its influences.

And nationalism isn't necessarily only a motivator for the right. Our new left of centre govt came in partly on the back of some nationalistic rhetoric (curbing immigration, limiting property sales to foreigners). The actual policies are reasonable, but the sentiment is still nationalistic in its leanings. I think they would just manage to avoid the populism label.

 

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14 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Fair. I'm more basing things off the way the nationalistic wind is blowing through the west generally and thinking that there's unlikely to be anything special about France that makes it more immune to its influences.

Oh there isn't and it doesn't. It's just that the two-round presidential election is an obstacle that is difficult to overcome for the far-right. That, and the many parties and candidates (each with its strengths and weaknesses) makes it very difficult to make predictions years in advance. But of course the far-right will keep making gains and will remain a potent threat for the foreseeable future.

There's also the fact that the recent demonstrations, despite being impressive, are actually not that extraordinary for France and that one shouldn't jump to conclusions just yet, especially since this movement was relatively apolitical (as in, without obviously recognisable political affiliations) and didn't involve some of the major societal players that usually participate in such movements (students were only beginning to get on board). We'll have to see what the country looks like in a couple of years. As I said, I expect Macron to face much worse before the end of his term. You don't implement a neo-liberal agenda in an old socialist country without facing strikes and demonstrations.

All this being said, I'm much more worried about Marion than Marine. Marine struggled to go above 30% despite receiving an incredible boost because of the recent terrorist attacks, the refugee crisis, and euroscepticism ; she was good in some respects, but ultimately failed spectacularly when it came to the final face-off. Marion otoh could learn from her aunt's mistakes...

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