Robb Stark, and the fate of Young Griff

[Giant Ice Spider]

So in ADWD we meet Young Griff, who is supposedly Prince Aegon VI Targaryen. For the purposes of this post, it doesn't matter who his parents are. I'm going to refer to him as Young Griff to keep things simple and neutral. Again, it doesn't matter to this theory.

At the end of ADWD, after 40-something chapters of not hearing from the Young Griff Conspiracy, we finally get "The Griffin Reborn". At the end of this chapter, we finally see what Young Griff looks like as king. And the prognosis isn't great.

Contrary to Jon Connington's (reasonable) advice, Ser Rolly Duckfield is now a knight of the Kingsguard. We also learn that Young Griff has unilaterally decided that he, a 16-18 year old boy, will be leading the assault on Storm's End. Now, cast your mind back to another boy king who made rash, impulsive decisions and led his men into battle. Yup, we're going there.

I'm saying Young Griff is a repeat of Robb Stark.

He is young, bold, and has trouble listening to his advisors (so does Robb, if I recall). In this instance, Connington gets Robb's tactical genius, but the analogy still holds. And, assuming I'm correct about the similarities between these two, we can make the following predictions:

1. The Golden Company and their allies will win every battle, but lose the war
2. Young Griff and his allies will be defeated in the bedchamber (with Elia Sand possibly playing the role of Jeyne Westerling)
3. Young Griff will die, and it will be utterly brutal

I don't have much textual evidence for this theory, mostly because the only book I physically own is AGOT. I'm interested to see what you guys think of this theory of mine.

[Ylath's Snout]

Maybe it won't be a straight up repeat, more of a "remix" but still interesting observation

[Darth Sidious]

9 hours ago, Giant Ice Spider said:

So in ADWD we meet Young Griff, who is supposedly Prince Aegon VI Targaryen. For the purposes of this post, it doesn't matter who his parents are. I'm going to refer to him as Young Griff to keep things simple and neutral. Again, it doesn't matter to this theory.

At the end of ADWD, after 40-something chapters of not hearing from the Young Griff Conspiracy, we finally get "The Griffin Reborn". At the end of this chapter, we finally see what Young Griff looks like as king. And the prognosis isn't great.

Contrary to Jon Connington's (reasonable) advice, Ser Rolly Duckfield is now a knight of the Kingsguard. We also learn that Young Griff has unilaterally decided that he, a 16-18 year old boy, will be leading the assault on Storm's End. Now, cast your mind back to another boy king who made rash, impulsive decisions and led his men into battle. Yup, we're going there.

I'm saying Young Griff is a repeat of Robb Stark.

He is young, bold, and has trouble listening to his advisors (so does Robb, if I recall). In this instance, Connington gets Robb's tactical genius, but the analogy still holds. And, assuming I'm correct about the similarities between these two, we can make the following predictions:

1. The Golden Company and their allies will win every battle, but lose the war
2. Young Griff and his allies will be defeated in the bedchamber (with Elia Sand possibly playing the role of Jeyne Westerling)
3. Young Griff will die, and it will be utterly brutal

I don't have much textual evidence for this theory, mostly because the only book I physically own is AGOT. I'm interested to see what you guys think of this theory of mine.

Let's be fair about this.  Jon Connington was running out of time.  His greyscale is a ticking time bomb.  JC is a cautious man and I doubt he would have agreed to begin the return to Westeros so soon if he had not contracted the disease.  He would have advised caution and taken the time to send a messenger to Meereen if he had enough time left.  The greyscale compromised his judgment.  He should have sent a sincere message to Meereen to at least inform Queen Daenerys of their plans.  As it stands, JC and Co. are in Westeros and having to beg for allies.  JC probably felt like he was the only man who could see this through and he wanted to use what little time he had left to put his adopted son on the throne.  

You have an interesting theory but Young Griff is nothing like Robb Stark.  I am a Stark hater but I will admit that Robb is a little bit more patient than Young Griff.  Robb had more advisers to help him along.  What Young Griff has working for him is his Targaryen name, assuming he can convince enough people.  There are many people in Westeros who have had enough of the War of the Five Dumbasses (Joff, Robb, Stannis, Renly, and Balon) and they will support a Targaryen restoration if it looks like it has a chance of winning.  People want to come out on the winning side and if Young Griff can get enough powerful houses on his side many more will leave the Lannister camp to side with him.  Young Griff also may not suffer from the partiality and lack of objectivity that Robb Stark and Jon Snow suffered from.   YG is not burdened with deep family attachments that could compromise his judgment like it compromised Robb and Jon.  

[Gendarrion]

I think they'll win the war(for a while at least), fAegon will probably be one of those people who martin stated that will sit the iron throne before the end..

[Loose Bolt]

I think that Vale is a king/queen maker. After all lords of Vale still has their armies at full power and have enough food to feed them. But only one who knows who they will support is mr Martin.

[Giant Ice Spider]

4 hours ago, Buell 2K said:

Let's be fair about this.  Jon Connington was running out of time.  His greyscale is a ticking time bomb.  JC is a cautious man and I doubt he would have agreed to begin the return to Westeros so soon if he had not contracted the disease.  He would have advised caution and taken the time to send a messenger to Meereen if he had enough time left.  The greyscale compromised his judgment.  He should have sent a sincere message to Meereen to at least inform Queen Daenerys of their plans.  As it stands, JC and Co. are in Westeros and having to beg for allies.  JC probably felt like he was the only man who could see this through and he wanted to use what little time he had left to put his adopted son on the throne.  

You have an interesting theory but Young Griff is nothing like Robb Stark.  I am a Stark hater but I will admit that Robb is a little bit more patient than Young Griff.  Robb had more advisers to help him along.  What Young Griff has working for him is his Targaryen name, assuming he can convince enough people.  There are many people in Westeros who have had enough of the War of the Five Dumbasses (Joff, Robb, Stannis, Renly, and Balon) and they will support a Targaryen restoration if it looks like it has a chance of winning.  People want to come out on the winning side and if Young Griff can get enough powerful houses on his side many more will leave the Lannister camp to side with him.  Young Griff also may not suffer from the partiality and lack of objectivity that Robb Stark and Jon Snow suffered from.   YG is not burdened with deep family attachments that could compromise his judgment like it compromised Robb and Jon.  

This is true, but none of this prevents an eventual downfall.

Young Griff could come within half an inch of winning the Iron Throne, and then just lose it all. Martin believes war achieves nothing, and Young Griff means to win his throne through war. Ergo, Young Griff will achieve nothing. The only question is how exactly this will come to pass.

3 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

I think that Vale is a king/queen maker. After all lords of Vale still has their armies at full power and have enough food to feed them. But only one who knows who they will support is mr Martin.

I doubt the Vale will support Young Griff. They overthrew his grandfather (assuming he's Rhaegar's), and I doubt this has left them with any Targaryen loyalties. Now, Littlefinger could decide the best course of action is to declare for Young Griff, but I'm not sure he'll give Varys that big of a boon.

[Ser Dips A lot]

 

10 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

I think that Vale is a king/queen maker. After all lords of Vale still has their armies at full power and have enough food to feed them. But only one who knows who they will support is mr Martin.

I think they'll go North and declare for Stannis, before or after Winterfell is liberated. You are right, however, only Martin knows the answer but I see it reasonable for Harrold Arryn to head north with Sansa, making Jon or Stannis their king in the aftermath. All hail Stannis The Mannis, the one true king!

 

[Dohor]

Even though fAegon has some similarities with Robb, I think Martin is trying to draw some kind of parallel between him and Joffrey. The Duckfield incident strongly reminds me of Joff raising Sandor to Kingsguard, JonCon is currently aspiring to be Tywin, and of coure, if the Blackfyre theory is correct (which I believe) both Joffrey and fAegon are bastards who other characters believe to be royal blood. 

Because of this, fAegon wanting to lead the battle reminds me of Joffrey at Blackwater. I don't remeber of Joff himself wanted to lead his troops as king, but at least Tyrion wanted him to do that. Because of Cersei interfering, Joffrey never led his army, and thus came back alive (to Sansa's disappointment and Tyrion's relief). I wonder if fAegon leading his own troops while still being too young to do so could result in his death, not necessarily at Storm's End but in some other battle. Joffrey and fAegon could work as literary foils to each other, both being boy kings, one bravely leading his armies and other hiding behind the castle walls, but both still dying violently. The message is; no matter what kind of people they are, children have no place in war and politics, and boy kings are dumb idea.

 

[HoodedCrow]

Let’s suppose fAegon does succeed, marries Arianne, is invited to be the iron throne by the High Septon, who doesn’t much like Cersei, and she blows up the Sept while they are getting married and crowned.

[Giant Ice Spider]

On ‎7‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 6:34 PM, Dohor said:

Even though fAegon has some similarities with Robb, I think Martin is trying to draw some kind of parallel between him and Joffrey. The Duckfield incident strongly reminds me of Joff raising Sandor to Kingsguard, JonCon is currently aspiring to be Tywin, and of coure, if the Blackfyre theory is correct (which I believe) both Joffrey and fAegon are bastards who other characters believe to be royal blood. 

Because of this, fAegon wanting to lead the battle reminds me of Joffrey at Blackwater. I don't remeber of Joff himself wanted to lead his troops as king, but at least Tyrion wanted him to do that. Because of Cersei interfering, Joffrey never led his army, and thus came back alive (to Sansa's disappointment and Tyrion's relief). I wonder if fAegon leading his own troops while still being too young to do so could result in his death, not necessarily at Storm's End but in some other battle. Joffrey and fAegon could work as literary foils to each other, both being boy kings, one bravely leading his armies and other hiding behind the castle walls, but both still dying violently. The message is; no matter what kind of people they are, children have no place in war and politics, and boy kings are dumb idea.

 

I hadn't considered that. The question is: if Young Griff is Joffrey, Connington is Tywin, then who are Cersei and Tyrion (since Tyrion plays a different role for Young Griff than he does for Joffrey). That being said, I think Young Griff isn't that much like Joffrey, since he does not seem to be malicious.

However, in Sansa VI in AGOT, Joffrey does talk about raising his armies, attacking Robb Stark, and even challenging him to single combat. Obviously, this never happened, but that could be the sort of thing Young Griff ends up doing.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 7/4/2018 at 10:34 AM, Dohor said:

The Duckfield incident strongly reminds me of Joff raising Sandor to Kingsguard,

Rolly Duckfield seems more like Davos: a lowborn nobody wanted by the law who gives loyal service to a noble in need, and is rewarded for it with knighthood and a new surname. Sandor wasn't a knight at all, killed Mycah in the chapter after he was first introduced (and laughed about it), then kills some of Ned's people in the counter-coup which made Sansa a captive, at which time he repeatedly tells her she's silly for believing in songs and needs to be more cynical. Rolly actually seems to be living in one of those romanticized tales.

[HoodedCrow]

Rolly Duckfield seems to echo Dunk.

[Charles Calthrop]

On 7/4/2018 at 10:34 AM, Dohor said:

Even though fAegon has some similarities with Robb, I think Martin is trying to draw some kind of parallel between him and Joffrey. The Duckfield incident strongly reminds me of Joff raising Sandor to Kingsguard, JonCon is currently aspiring to be Tywin, and of coure, if the Blackfyre theory is correct (which I believe) both Joffrey and fAegon are bastards who other characters believe to be royal blood. 

This.  Despite Varys talking fAegon up about how he’d been raised and tutored and well-balanced and what not, there was just a pattern of immature behavior (like flipping over the chessboard) etc., that only one character echoed in terms of childishness - Joff.  That said, fAegon didn’t seem to be a sadist like Joffrey.  (Although he had nowhere near the opportunity.)

On the flip side, Robb didn’t have a lot of great advisors, barring the Blackfish (from a tactics standpoint - otherwise that guy gets too much of a pass for his ‘badass’ status).  He didn’t listen to Cat about Theon, but Cat’s decision making was generally shit, as was her thinking, so not like she’s great from a credibility standpoint.  Bolton was a total creep, and Robb realized this (one of the things he and Cat actually agreed on.). The Great Jon was well meaning, but kind of a moron.  Even if Theon had stayed loyal, he was callow as can be and wasn’t capable of giving material advice.  Edmure was possibly worse than any of the above, except Cat. 

Unfortunately, the candidates for ‘good advisors’ he could have had weren’t available to him.  Manderly was too fat to be in the field with him, although seems like he’d be a great advisor.  JS (book) would have been a great advisor, but #nightswatchreasons.  Howland Reed also would have likely been an asset, but can’t have the great McGuffin out in the wild.

With just Jon Connington alone, YG is doing better in the advisor department... although as a post above indicates, JC’s greyscale clock is ticking, making him do crazy things.

[Dohor]

On 7/6/2018 at 5:15 PM, Giant Ice Spider said:

I hadn't considered that. The question is: if Young Griff is Joffrey, Connington is Tywin, then who are Cersei and Tyrion (since Tyrion plays a different role for Young Griff than he does for Joffrey). That being said, I think Young Griff isn't that much like Joffrey, since he does not seem to be malicious.

About who are Cersei and Tyrion, I have no idea. However, we've spent very little time with fAegon, so they might appear in Winds.

And I agree with you, fAegon is nothing like Joffrey, and that's not what I was suggesting. Right now I see fAegon as a foil for Joffrey, with them being different people put in more or less same situation. 

(Just a crazy thought, if Illyrio really is fAegon's dad, could he be Cersei?)

[Dohor]

I thought more about the fAegon/Joffrey parallels, and here's what I got out of it.

fAegon=Joffrey: both are bastards with highly incestuous backgroud who believe to be royal blood.

Rhaegar=Robert: The boy kings' supposed fathers. 

Jon C=Tywin: JonCon's character development is constantly heading towards Tywin Lannister. Both are also in same position as the boy king's Hand.

Illyrio=Cersei: I honestly think Illyrio might end up playing Cersei. He seems to actually care about (his son) fAegon and could very well be the one trying to keep the boy safe during battles.

Varys=Tyrion: This is a bit of a strech, but if Illyrio is Cersei, Varys is natural Tyrion. For outsider, they seem to be working together but they might start having some kind of feud with each other.

Tyrion=Littlefinger: Pretty obvious, if we believe that LF gave Joffrey the idea to execute Ned. Tyrion telling fAegon to go west mirrors this pretty well.

Lysono Maar=Varys: Two spymasters from Lys, they'll probably be similar

Rolly Duckfield=Sandor: Guy who gets elevated to Kingsguard by the boy king against all objections.

Not sure by Arianne, who is currently coming to Griffin's Roost, but I think she'll be Margaery to Doran's Olenna.

That's all I got out.

[Giant Ice Spider]

12 hours ago, Dohor said:

I thought more about the fAegon/Joffrey parallels, and here's what I got out of it.

fAegon=Joffrey: both are bastards with highly incestuous backgroud who believe to be royal blood.

Rhaegar=Robert: The boy kings' supposed fathers. 

Jon C=Tywin: JonCon's character development is constantly heading towards Tywin Lannister. Both are also in same position as the boy king's Hand.

Illyrio=Cersei: I honestly think Illyrio might end up playing Cersei. He seems to actually care about (his son) fAegon and could very well be the one trying to keep the boy safe during battles.

Varys=Tyrion: This is a bit of a strech, but if Illyrio is Cersei, Varys is natural Tyrion. For outsider, they seem to be working together but they might start having some kind of feud with each other.

Tyrion=Littlefinger: Pretty obvious, if we believe that LF gave Joffrey the idea to execute Ned. Tyrion telling fAegon to go west mirrors this pretty well.

Lysono Maar=Varys: Two spymasters from Lys, they'll probably be similar

Rolly Duckfield=Sandor: Guy who gets elevated to Kingsguard by the boy king against all objections.

Not sure by Arianne, who is currently coming to Griffin's Roost, but I think she'll be Margaery to Doran's Olenna.

That's all I got out.

That seems pretty comprehensive. It's odd to think of Tyrion being LIttlefinger, but I suppose you're right.

I'm not sure how able Illyrio will be to have direct influence over whether Young Griff fights, seeing as Pentos and the Stormlands are a long way away. It's a definite possibility though.

I reckon Elia Sand is more likely to catch Young Griff's eye (him being Rhaegar-like and her being Lyanna-like), so I guess Elia Sand is Margaery and Arianna is Sansa.

[Guest]

While I'm not as invested in the Aegon/Jon storyline as other plotlines, I'm still very interested to see where it goes. I'm definitely okay with it being omitted from the show though. My biggest problem with Aegon comes from a line very minor in "the Lost Lord," that I haven't been able to forgive him for. "If my aunt (Dany) wants slaver's bay so badly, she can have it." fuck you Aegon. she doesn't want that awful place, but the people she has freed need her to stay. She's doing what's right as a queen. As it stands, at the moment, him, Jon and the Golden Company are just bringing war to one of the few places in Westeros that isn't in ruins, the Stormlands. 

[Giant Ice Spider]

On ‎7‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 4:32 PM, Mooncalf said:

While I'm not as invested in the Aegon/Jon storyline as other plotlines, I'm still very interested to see where it goes. I'm definitely okay with it being omitted from the show though. My biggest problem with Aegon comes from a line very minor in "the Lost Lord," that I haven't been able to forgive him for. "If my aunt (Dany) wants slaver's bay so badly, she can have it." fuck you Aegon. she doesn't want that awful place, but the people she has freed need her to stay. She's doing what's right as a queen. As it stands, at the moment, him, Jon and the Golden Company are just bringing war to one of the few places in Westeros that isn't in ruins, the Stormlands. 

Many stormlanders perished at the Blackwater and probably a few more at Duskendale. There's been no fighting there per se until the attack on Griffin's Roost, but that doesn't mean it isn't depleted by the war.

Apart from the cyvasse and Duckfield incidents, Young Griff seems to be an OK kid. Obviously I don't think he'll stay that way, but I think in that scene he is trying to act bold and strong to persuade the GC to go with Tyrion's quarter-baked plan.

[Tagganaro]

On 7/4/2018 at 11:34 AM, Dohor said:

Even though fAegon has some similarities with Robb, I think Martin is trying to draw some kind of parallel between him and Joffrey. The Duckfield incident strongly reminds me of Joff raising Sandor to Kingsguard, JonCon is currently aspiring to be Tywin, and of coure, if the Blackfyre theory is correct (which I believe) both Joffrey and fAegon are bastards who other characters believe to be royal blood. 

Because of this, fAegon wanting to lead the battle reminds me of Joffrey at Blackwater. I don't remeber of Joff himself wanted to lead his troops as king, but at least Tyrion wanted him to do that. Because of Cersei interfering, Joffrey never led his army, and thus came back alive (to Sansa's disappointment and Tyrion's relief). I wonder if fAegon leading his own troops while still being too young to do so could result in his death, not necessarily at Storm's End but in some other battle. Joffrey and fAegon could work as literary foils to each other, both being boy kings, one bravely leading his armies and other hiding behind the castle walls, but both still dying violently. The message is; no matter what kind of people they are, children have no place in war and politics, and boy kings are dumb idea.

 

This is what I got as well.  I don't see too much in common between Robb and Faegon besides for them both being young.  However, the Joffrey and Faegon similarities can't be ignored.  As you mentioned below, Tyrion explicitly compares Griff/Jon Con to Tywin, who were both in the Hand position.  Not to mention the Duckfield thing.  In addition, I'd point out arguably the most glaring parallel drawn- Faegon throwing a tantrum after the Cyvasse game with Tyrion, throwing the pieces everywhere, and then commanding Tyrion to pick them up.  This is of course much like the Purple Wedding where Joffrey poured the wine on Tyrion, dropped the chalice, and then commanded Tyrion to pick it up.  Tyrion even makes some sort of remark after Faegon commands him to pick up the pieces about Faegon acting like a king now (that King being Joffrey).

 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 7/8/2018 at 12:51 PM, Dohor said:

fAegon=Joffrey: both are bastards with highly incestuous backgroud who believe to be royal blood.

Why would fAegon be of a "highly incestous background"? The popular theory is that his father is Illyrio Mopatis and his mother is the prostitute he bought from a Lysene brothel. It seems a comfortable assumption that the two of them weren't already related. We've gotten no indications that the Mopatis family (Mopati?) had been incestuous. If she was owned by a brothel, it would seem that her parents didn't have any expectation of making a picky marital match for her, and is probably a bastard. Although since Illyrio was married, that would mean his kid isn't a bastard, so perhaps you have some alternate theory.