Heresy 210 and the Babes in the Wood

[Frey family reunion]

13 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Roll forward, and we have Young Griff and the mysterious Septa Lemore. Jon Connington genuinely believes Young Griff to be Rhaegar's son. Most readers shrewdly believe Young Griff/Aegon to be a fake, but what is he isn't, or at least is only partly a fake? What if he is indeed Rhaegar's son, but instead of being Aegon is actually Rhaegar's illegitimate son by Ashara?

I wonder how firmly Connington believes Young Griff is Rhaegar's son.  

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“Your father’s lands are beautiful,” Prince Rhaegar had said, standing right where Jon was standing now. And the boy he’d been had replied, “One day they will all be mine.” As if that could impress a prince who was heir to the entire realm, from the Arbor to the Wall.

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Prince Aegon Targaryen was not near as biddable as the boy Young Griff had been, however. The better part of an hour had passed before he finally turned up in the solar, with Duck at his side. “Lord Connington,” he said, “I like your castle.”

“Your father’s lands are beautiful,” he said. His silvery hair was blowing in the wind, and his eyes were a deep purple, darker than this boy’s.

I wonder how much Jon Connington truly believes him to be Rhaegar's son, as opposed to how much Connington needs to believe he is Rhaegar's son.

I do have a couple of issues with Rhaegar being the one who dishonored Ashara.  After all, Ashara is his wife's lady in waiting.  Why wait to have an affair in a public setting, when he would have had plenty of opportunities in King's Landing?  And then we have the fact that Young Griff's mother appears to be identified as Illyrio's precious Serra.  

And my last doubt lies with the fact that I have a feeling that if Rhaegar had eyes for a Dayne, it would have probably have been Arthur as opposed to Ashara.

[Frey family reunion]

On 7/20/2018 at 12:59 PM, Feather Crystal said:

If Jon was born a few weeks before Robb's conception, then his timing of conception and birthday would fit both the Harrenhal Tourney and the Fisherman's Daughter if the tourney occurred December 281. Having 281 be called the Year of the False Spring makes people think the tourney occurred in the early part of 281, but think about this - it's called the Year of the False Spring, because it lasted a year with winter returning at the end of it. Lyanna's abduction coincided with a return to winter, so I don't think I'm out of line in thinking the tourney occurred close to the end of December.

I agree, according to the worldbook the False Spring lasted two turns (months?) and winter returned as the year closed.  And I could be mistaken, but my impression is that Harrenhal was arranged when they thought Spring had returned.  I assume it took some time to arrange the tournament and bring everyone together.  So I think you're probably right, this tourney happened in either December or later November.  

Which gets me to a theory that is really growing on me.  Rhaegar plants a winter crown on Lyanna's lap.  It does make me wonder if he is crowning Lyanna, or is he crowning her future child?  And the fact that the crown is of winter roses, makes me wonder if he has some belief that Lyanna's child will be a queen or king of winter??  

It sounds a bit crackpot, but I do find it interesting that according to the Worldbook, Rhaegar and company don't ride out until Winter makes its sudden return.  Could Jon's conception have brought about winter's return?  (I suppose an analogy would be the belief that Dany's birth allegedly caused a storm to rage over Dragonstone).  

Which leads me back to whether Jon's bloodlines are more Stark than anything else because both of his parents are Starks (Brandon and Lyanna), and this incestuous conception brought a recessive magical bloodline back to the forefront.  

And this in turn (bear with me) makes me wonder what it truly means to be a King of Winter, and what is meant by the idea that there must always be a Stark in Winterfell.  Is the King of Winter someone who controls winter??? Or is it more analogous to a Corn King.  Someone who must be sacrificed in Winterfell to bring about an end of Winter?  Is the person being sacrificed to Winterfell's heart tree, in Bran's vision,  a former King of Winter?  Is it something that is analogous to the Prince of Pentos?  And of course we have a former Prince of Pentos introduced in the story as someone who is on the run, to avoid being sacrificed to the Pentoshi gods to bring about better fortune.

We know that Rhaegar is being driven by the Prince that was Promised prophecy.  And we know from Aemon, that the Prince that was Promised prophecy relates to the Long Night, and the Battle for the Dawn.  This makes me think that Rhaegar's only motivation at Harrenhal, and at the tower of joy, and all of his other shenanigans, is to prepare for the Long Night, which he must believe is about to fall upon Westeros.  He thinks that his son is the Prince that was Promised, I wonder if he believes that Lyanna is fated to give birth to the Winter King who must ultimately be sacrificed to bring about the end of the Long Night?  And when winter mysteriously returns to Westeros, he takes this as a sign that the Winter King is on his way.

[Brad Stark]

 

48 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I wonder how firmly Connington believes Young Griff is Rhaegar's son.  

I wonder how much Jon Connington truly believes him to be Rhaegar's son, as opposed to how much Connington needs to believe he is Rhaegar's son.

I do have a couple of issues with Rhaegar being the one who dishonored Ashara.  After all, Ashara is his wife's lady in waiting.  Why wait to have an affair in a public setting, when he would have had plenty of opportunities in King's Landing?  And then we have the fact that Young Griff's mother appears to be identified as Illyrio's precious Serra.  

And my last doubt lies with the fact that I have a feeling that if Rhaegar had eyes for a Dayne, it would have probably have been Arthur as opposed to Ashara.

Do we know when Connington met young Griff? 

If Ashara really was pregnant at Harrenhal, we can't assume only one man was involved.  She could have openly been with Ned and secretly with Rhaegar. 

Do we have any hints Rhaegar was gay? Why so many theories about characters being gay, but not bi? We know Araya, Sam and some other characters are to some degree bisexual, GRRM told us.  But we get the slightest hint a man may have been interested in another man and throw out any theory he could have fathered a child outside marriage. 

[Tucu]

3 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

 

Do we know when Connington met young Griff?

A bit more than 5 years after his exile.

[Brad Stark]

5 minutes ago, Tucu said:

A bit more than 5 years after his exile.

What is your source?  I assumed it would be much later.

[Brad Stark]

38 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I agree, according to the worldbook the False Spring lasted two turns (months?) and winter returned as the year closed.  And I could be mistaken, but my impression is that Harrenhal was arranged when they thought Spring had returned.  I assume it took some time to arrange the tournament and bring everyone together.  So I think you're probably right, this tourney happened in either December or later November.

I assumed a 'turn' was a year, not a month.

The tournament was cover for a grand council to remove Aerys, but then he showed up.  The timing would have been driven by political events, not the weather.

[Tucu]

2 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

What is your source?  I assumed it would be much later.

From the "The Lost Lord"

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Jon Connington might have been one of those successors if his exile had gone otherwise. He had spent five years with the company, rising from the ranks to a place of honor at Toyne's right hand. Had he stayed, it might well have been him the men turned to after Myles died, instead of Harry Strickland. But Griff did not regret the path he'd chosen. When I return to Westeros, it will not be as a skull atop a pole.

He joined the Golden Company soon after his exile and left to join Aegon.

[Brad Stark]

He was with the Golden company for 5 years.  He didn't join immediately on exile, if he really did come close to drinking himself to death, it could have been many years before he joined.  We don't know he left and immediately met young Griff either, but that seems likely. 

I assumed young Griff is fake, and only concocted as plan B after Visceris died.  Otherwise it makes no sense for Varys to support both him and a rival claimant to the iron throne at the same time. 

[Tucu]

There are more data points that suggest that he joined the GC quite soon after his exile.

The Battle of the Bells was in 283. In 300 he thinks:

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Griff wondered how many of them knew who he was. Few enough. Twelve years is a long time

The years of service and the years that he was away add up to 17.

The drunk shame was part of Varys' plan:

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So far as most of them were concerned, Connington had drunk himself to death in Lys after being driven from the company in disgrace for stealing from the war chest. The shame of the lie still stuck in his craw, but Varys had insisted it was necessary

We can probably assume that he met Aegon before agreeing to follow the plan.

[Brad Stark]

So 288 is when Jon Connington left the Golden Company, 9 years before 297 AC when Illyrio first supported Viserys. 

Whether Aegon is real or fake, Varys's actions and Connington's make no sense.  Why would Jon Connington leave the Golden Company for 12 years of glorified babysitting?  Shouldn't he immediately have left to support Viserys?  Or stayed with the Golden company until either claimant was old enough to plan a return to Westerous?  Connington's actions are somewhat easier to explain - he isn't that bright and Varys is a master at manipulating people, so he is just doing what Varys wants.

Both young Griff and Viserys (later Dany) have a legit claim to the throne above the other, as Aerys named Viserys his heir when Rhaegar was still alive.  Aegon can marry Dany, but not Viserys.  Varys would need to chose 1 to back and try to prevent the other from reaching Westerous.  Even now, why would he support young Griff without trying to tell Dany about him and try to get her to join him?  What would his plan for Jon Connington and young Griff had been if Viserys didn't die?

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

I assumed a 'turn' was a year, not a month.

The tournament was cover for a grand council to remove Aerys, but then he showed up.  The timing would have been driven by political events, not the weather.

I was a bit confused about the term as well, but it appears that at least as far as the Worldbook is concerned a turn is a month:

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Then came another stillbirth in 270, another miscarriage in 271, and Prince Aegon, born two turns premature in 272, dead in 273.

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The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns.  As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance.  On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush.

But it does look like you're right that the preparations for the Harrenhal tourney appeared to have started well before the start of the false Spring.  So it appears that the Harrenhal tourney would have occurred at the very beginning of this "False Spring", so let's say early late October to early November our time:

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This is known:  The tourney was first announced by Walter Whent, Lord of Harrenhal, late in the year 280 AC, not long after a vist from his younger brother, Ser Oswell When, a knight of the Kingsguard.

 

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In the Annals of Westeros, 281 AC is known as the Year of the False Spring.  Winter had held the land in its icy grip for close on two years, but now at last the snows were melting, the woods were greening, the days were growing longer.  Though the white ravens had not yet flown, there were many even at the Citadel at Oldtown who believed that winter's end was nigh.

 As warm winds blew from the south, lords and knights from throughout the Seven Kingdoms made their way toward Harrenhal to compete in Lord Whent's great tournament on the shore of the God's Eye, which promised to be the largest and most magnificent competition since the time of Aegon the Unlikely.

 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

 

Do we know when Connington met young Griff? 

If Ashara really was pregnant at Harrenhal, we can't assume only one man was involved.  She could have openly been with Ned and secretly with Rhaegar. 

Do we have any hints Rhaegar was gay? Why so many theories about characters being gay, but not bi? We know Araya, Sam and some other characters are to some degree bisexual, GRRM told us.  But we get the slightest hint a man may have been interested in another man and throw out any theory he could have fathered a child outside marriage. 

Call it a gut feeling.  We have Jon Connignton's never ending crush over Rhaegar (he may have had reason to believe there was a possibility that Rhaegar would one day return his affection), we have the castle staff fretting that Rhaegar was to be another Baelor the Blessed, and of course there was all the harp playing.

[Frey family reunion]

20 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

So 288 is when Jon Connington left the Golden Company, 9 years before 297 AC when Illyrio first supported Viserys. 

Whether Aegon is real or fake, Varys's actions and Connington's make no sense.  Why would Jon Connington leave the Golden Company for 12 years of glorified babysitting?  Shouldn't he immediately have left to support Viserys?  Or stayed with the Golden company until either claimant was old enough to plan a return to Westerous?  Connington's actions are somewhat easier to explain - he isn't that bright and Varys is a master at manipulating people, so he is just doing what Varys wants.

Both young Griff and Viserys (later Dany) have a legit claim to the throne above the other, as Aerys named Viserys his heir when Rhaegar was still alive.  Aegon can marry Dany, but not Viserys.  Varys would need to chose 1 to back and try to prevent the other from reaching Westerous.  Even now, why would he support young Griff without trying to tell Dany about him and try to get her to join him?  What would his plan for Jon Connington and young Griff had been if Viserys didn't die?

He is given a new lease on life when he is told that Rhaegar's son is still alive, and needs his help to regain the throne.  He is primarily acting out of his affection for Rhaegar as opposed to a desire to have Targaryens in general regain the throne.  

That's why I think he may need to believe Aegon is really Rhaegar's son, as opposed to being completely convinced of the fact.  This gives him purpose.

[Tucu]

3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

So 288 is when Jon Connington left the Golden Company, 9 years before 297 AC when Illyrio first supported Viserys. 

Whether Aegon is real or fake, Varys's actions and Connington's make no sense.  Why would Jon Connington leave the Golden Company for 12 years of glorified babysitting?  Shouldn't he immediately have left to support Viserys?  Or stayed with the Golden company until either claimant was old enough to plan a return to Westerous?  Connington's actions are somewhat easier to explain - he isn't that bright and Varys is a master at manipulating people, so he is just doing what Varys wants.

Both young Griff and Viserys (later Dany) have a legit claim to the throne above the other, as Aerys named Viserys his heir when Rhaegar was still alive.  Aegon can marry Dany, but not Viserys.  Varys would need to chose 1 to back and try to prevent the other from reaching Westerous.  Even now, why would he support young Griff without trying to tell Dany about him and try to get her to join him?  What would his plan for Jon Connington and young Griff had been if Viserys didn't die?

Jon was on-board to be one of Aegon's trainers: a knight, a maester and a septa. I think Varys is sincere when he says this to Kevan:

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“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

The original plan probably included the assasinations of Viserys and Dany if they deviated from their paths. Dany hatching dragon obviously mess with the plan.

[Black Crow]

7 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

I assumed a 'turn' was a year, not a month.

Its a "moon's turn", ie a lunar month

[Black Crow]

8 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

But is George?

 

Not particularly, but nor is he into some of the more elaborately convoluted hypotheses aired from time to time.

This one fits both the in-story facts and the way the story is being told with mysteries offered and a smokescreen

[Brad Stark]

7 hours ago, Tucu said:

Jon was on-board to be one of Aegon's trainers: a knight, a maester and a septa. I think Varys is sincere when he says this to Kevan:

The original plan probably included the assasinations of Viserys and Dany if they deviated from their paths. Dany hatching dragon obviously mess with the plan.

Varys was could be honest about how Aegon was raised, even knowing he isn't really Rhaegar's son.  We could even interpret this as Griff being raised in such a way as to make a good ruler, even before Varys decided to make him one.  Mending nets isn't exactly essential to being king.

Again, we have the same problem as discussing Jon's parents.  How are they relevant?  Varys, and maybe people working with him, are the only ones who knows for certain if Aegon is real or fake, and they are going to claim he is real either way.  The same houses will support him, and the same will claim he is fake, regardless.  So it really doesn't matter who his parents are, as long as he has enough dragonlord in him to avoid being a Drogon snack. 

The only place he runs into trouble is claiming he is TPWWP, if he isn't descended from Aerys and we are right assuming TPWWP has to be.  But this only comes up if we have a "sword in the stone" only TPWWP can pull.  And even that wouldn't prove he is fake, he could be Rhaegar's son and still not be TPWWP.  Any ideas why Viserys never believed he was TPWWP?

If Varys's plan was to assassinate Viserys and Dany, why wait?  Even without the dragons, it becomes harder the older they get.  Illyrio is the one who arranged the Dany Drago marriage to give Viserys troops to conquer Westerous.  If he is supporting Aegon's claim, this is about the worst thing he could do.

[Tucu]

2 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Varys was could be honest about how Aegon was raised, even knowing he isn't really Rhaegar's son.  We could even interpret this as Griff being raised in such a way as to make a good ruler, even before Varys decided to make him one.  Mending nets isn't exactly essential to being king.

Again, we have the same problem as discussing Jon's parents.  How are they relevant?  Varys, and maybe people working with him, are the only ones who knows for certain if Aegon is real or fake, and they are going to claim he is real either way.  The same houses will support him, and the same will claim he is fake, regardless.  So it really doesn't matter who his parents are, as long as he has enough dragonlord in him to avoid being a Drogon snack. 

The only place he runs into trouble is claiming he is TPWWP, if he isn't descended from Aerys and we are right assuming TPWWP has to be.  But this only comes up if we have a "sword in the stone" only TPWWP can pull.  And even that wouldn't prove he is fake, he could be Rhaegar's son and still not be TPWWP.  Any ideas why Viserys never believed he was TPWWP?

If Varys's plan was to assassinate Viserys and Dany, why wait?  Even without the dragons, it becomes harder the older they get.  Illyrio is the one who arranged the Dany Drago marriage to give Viserys troops to conquer Westerous.  If he is supporting Aegon's claim, this is about the worst thing he could do.

I am not saying that he is the real Aegon but that Varys didn't lie about educating a king to serve his people. He makes him spend time with the smallfolk so that he understands their needs.

About TPWWP, the prophecy seems to be a semi-obscure reference. Rhaegar and Aemon learnt about it from old books. Viserys probably never had the chance to see those books.

Viserys was a piece in the chaos part of the game. Getting him an army of savages to invade Westeros with reducing the defenses for the time when Aegon was ready.

[Black Crow]

4 hours ago, Tucu said:

Viserys was a piece in the chaos part of the game. Getting him an army of savages to invade Westeros with reducing the defenses for the time when Aegon was ready.

That plan would of course be consistent with the original synopsis - which actually has Danaerys the Dragonlord tooling up instead [having offed Viserys] with her golden horde to conquer Westeros ahead of the blue-eyed lot.

I think that at this stage however we have a logistical problem in that GRRM proposes to wrap the series in two books, yet at the speed everything is moving we need to see in those books the increasingly big and elaborate invasion by Young Griff. We then in theory should get an invasion by Genghis Targaryen. Both of these will gobble up massive amounts of page space . Not an original observation I know but it does make me wonder how GRRM proposes to fit it all in and whether the Dothraki will ever make it.

[SirArthur]

Let's talk about Viserys planed invasion for a moment. Where should it take place ? Dorne would be rather stupid, if we believe in real Aegon as it would destroy the support.

In theory an invasion in the Reach would make some sense, if loyal houses like Hightower or Tarly would support it.
A Viserys invasion in the Stormlands would not exactly help, if Aegon should land in the Stormlands. 
 

So the Crownlands, the Reach, the Vale and the North remain. In either case Visery's ships have to engage the royal fleet (the reason why Dany's offered ships will not do, she needs combat ships, not transport ships).

To sum it up, Viserys or Dany needs to board their army between Braavos and Pentos for any invasion within the Aegon support idea to make sense. It would also make sense for them to attack Robert's coalition land first (without the Stormlands), so that Aegon can then march in and "free" them. 

So in any case, Illyro should have supported them with ships.