Heresy 210 and the Babes in the Wood

[Brad Stark]

If the marriage pact was legit, landing in Dorne as an ally and attacking North makes sense.  Either way, he'd have 3 priorities :

1) Land an army on the ground in Westerous. 

2) Gather allies in Westerous 

3) Take King's Landing and the iron throne establishing legitimacy as ruler of the seven Kingdoms. 

 

 

[Frey family reunion]

8 hours ago, Tucu said:

About TPWWP, the prophecy seems to be a semi-obscure reference. Rhaegar and Aemon learnt about it from old books. Viserys probably never had the chance to see those books.

It's not quite that obscure.  The prophecy was discussed by the Targaryens as early as Jaehaerys II, which is why he arranged the marriage of Aerys and Rhaella.  And it looks like other people were aware of it, including Barristan:  So at the very least, the principal Targaryens involved in Summerhall were probably aware of the prophecy, and it looks like some of the kingsguards would have been aware of it as well.  Now that doesn't mean Viserys was aware of it, considering how young he was.  And if he was aware of it, he may not have put much stock or significance in it.

Quote

Ser Barristan went on.  "I saw your father and your mother wed as well.  Forgive me, but there was no fondness there, and the realm paid dearly for that, my queen.

"Why did they wed if they did not love each other?"

"Your grandsire commanded it.  A woods witch had told him that the prince that was promised would be born of their line."

8 hours ago, Tucu said:

Viserys was a piece in the chaos part of the game. Getting him an army of savages to invade Westeros with reducing the defenses for the time when Aegon was ready.

[Black Crow]

But why Aerys and Rhaella?

Are we missing something here?

[SirArthur]

7 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

If the marriage pact was legit, landing in Dorne as an ally and attacking North makes sense.  

For Viserys, yes. ForViserys as a roose for Aegon, no.

[alienarea]

10 hours ago, SirArthur said:

Let's talk about Viserys planed invasion for a moment. Where should it take place ? Dorne would be rather stupid, if we believe in real Aegon as it would destroy the support.

In theory an invasion in the Reach would make some sense, if loyal houses like Hightower or Tarly would support it.
A Viserys invasion in the Stormlands would not exactly help, if Aegon should land in the Stormlands. 
 

So the Crownlands, the Reach, the Vale and the North remain. In either case Visery's ships have to engage the royal fleet (the reason why Dany's offered ships will not do, she needs combat ships, not transport ships).

To sum it up, Viserys or Dany needs to board their army between Braavos and Pentos for any invasion within the Aegon support idea to make sense. It would also make sense for them to attack Robert's coalition land first (without the Stormlands), so that Aegon can then march in and "free" them. 

So in any case, Illyro should have supported them with ships.

In general, it would have been easier if the Dothraki were located South of Dorne, maybe with a second wall to keep the horselords out.

That could better explain why Oberyn shows up at KL when he did and not earlier; he was busy dealing with the Dothraki.

We could skip a lot of Daenery's stuff, Euron and Victarion, and have the Sandsnakes join Daenerys after Oberyn's death, opening the Southern walk for the Dothraki. 

It would also add to Ned and Arthur Dayne, protector of the Northern wall and protector of the Southern wall.

[Tucu]

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

But why Aerys and Rhaella?

Are we missing something here?

Are these pointers?: A woods witch(GoHH?), a king and queen with recent Blackwood blood and a Targ/Blackwood greenseer that was still learning his trade in 259.

I still think that the Blackwood blood was key in repairing the magic bloodlines of Starks and Targs.

We also have the involvement of Jenny of OldStones. She is from an abandoned castle and weaves flowers in her hair like Leaf who walked the land of men for 200 years.

[Brad Stark]

Nothing special about Aerys and Rhaella, except being ancestors of tpwwp.  We've seen Brian look into the past and several characters seem to be able to see the future, so likely something along those lines. 

[Frey family reunion]

4 hours ago, Tucu said:

Are these pointers?: A woods witch(GoHH?), a king and queen with recent Blackwood blood and a Targ/Blackwood greenseer that was still learning his trade in 259.

I still think that the Blackwood blood was key in repairing the magic bloodlines of Starks and Targs.

We also have the involvement of Jenny of OldStones. She is from an abandoned castle and weaves flowers in his hair like Leaf who walked the land of men for 200 years.

I agree to a point.  For example, I think the Blackwood bloodlines are a key to the skinchanging abilities of the Stark kids.  And since I believe that the Prince that was Promised is the idea of a Targaryen consciousness being transferred into a dragon, a Blackwood bloodline should certainly help this process.

(As for the Stark kids, my suspicion is that both Cat and Ned had recessive Blackwood skinchanging “genes” which became expressed through at least some of their children.  Definitely Bran, definitely Arya, most probably Robb, maybe Rickon, uncertain as to Sansa.)  

The knee jerk reaction is to anoint Jon as the Prince that was Promised and Dany as the Princess that was promised.  If so then Jon would fit the bill, only if Rhaegar is his dad, so he would then have Blackwood genes on both sides as well.  And if Dany’s parents are Aerys and Rahella, then she would inherit Blackwood genes from both sides well.

However, I like to imagine things as more complicated than they necessarily have to be.  And George has repeatedly indicated his fondness for prophecies which are resolved in unusual ways.  

Now my suspicion is that Jon is a return to the bloodlines of the Winter Kings, while Dany’s bloodlines are a return to the purer bloodlines of Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters.  So if Jon’s father is not Rhaegar, he would definitely not qualify if the woods witch was correct.  If Dany obtained her ability to hatch her dragons through a reintroduction of an offshoot Targaryen bloodline (for example Velaryon, Blackfyre, Longwaters, Plumm ect) then at most she would be a bastard daughter of either Aerys or Rahella.  So she would not be the line of both.

So now let’s turn to the one person that has actually been named the Prince that was Promised, Aegon, son of Rhaegar and Elia.  First we have to ask ourselves, why did Rhaegar decide that he, himself,  was not the Prince that Was Promised?  After all, he certainly seems to fit the bill.  Aemon certainly thought he should qualify.  After all, he is the first born son of Aerys and Rahella, who’s line the PTWP was supposed to come from.  Aemon thought that his birth on the day of Summerhall also qualified for the requisite salt/smoke AA prophecy, in so much as AA = PTWP.  What convinced Rhaegar that he wasn’t the one?  And why did he become convinced that his son was?  

The World Book suggests that both Aerys and Rhaella harbored suspicions of infidelity towards each other.  Rhaella thought that Aerys was making whores out of her ladies in waiting.  Aerys decided that Rhaella’s string of stillbirths and early child deaths were signs that she was being unfaithful to him.  I think the quote was “the gods will not suffer a bastard to sit on the iron throne”.  So that brought up an interesting thought (at least to me):  what if Aerys and Rhaella never had any children together?  A bit of a parallel to the Robert - Cersei situation.  

Which means that maybe, Rhaegar came to the same conclusion.  That his true father was not Aerys.  We are told from Barristan that Aerys and Rhaella never had any affection for each other, even on their wedding day.  Interestingly enough, Cersei takes one look at the Bastard of Driftmark and thinks that he looks like Rhaegar reborn (except for the eyes).  It would be interesting if we find out that Rhaegar’s father was actually Lord Velaryon, the same Lord who died in the ill fated Battle of the Blackwater.  

In this case, Rhaegar would come to the conclusion that he could not be the Prince that was Promised.  Now if so, why would he conclude that it could be his son?

Let’s now turn to Aerys’ infidelity.  Rhaella complains that he is making whores out of her ladies in waiting.  We are only told of the identity of two of them, Joanna and the Princess of Dorne (the mother of Doran, Elia, and Oberyn).  GRRM definitely teases that the culprit is Joanna.  Maybe.  But what if this was a misdirect to turn our attention momentarily away from the only other lady in waiting that we know about?  Then ask yourself, after Aerys went through the trouble of sending Steffon out across the sea to find a suitably, Valyrian bride for Rhaegar, why he then later decided consent to the marriage of Rhaegar to Elia?  Is it because, Elia’s great, great, great grandmother was a Targaryen?  Or did Aerys have reason to believe that Elia was his own blood?  

If so, and if Rhaegar was made aware of this, then we get an interesting solution to the wood’s witch prophecy.  The prince that was promised (Aegon) comes from the line of Aerys and Rhaella, even if the two of them never had any children together.  Rhaella would be Aegon’s grandmother on his father’s side, while Aerys would be his grandfather on his mother’s side.

And genetically we have an interesting melting pot of magical bloodlines.  Aegon would have bloodlines from the Targaryen, the Daynes, the Blackwoods, from both his parents.  And a Rhoynish bloodline from his mother, and possibly a Velaryon bloodline from his father(the House who harbored the last of the Targaryen dragon riders).  

Now of course this would only have any significance, if Aegon somehow survived the rebellion, and is hiding out somewhere in the series. 

 

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I agree to a point.  For example, I think the Blackwood bloodlines are a key to the skinchanging abilities of the Stark kids.  And since I believe that the Prince that was Promised is the idea of a Targaryen consciousness being transferred into a dragon, a Blackwood bloodline should certainly help this process.

  

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

what if Aerys and Rhaella never had any children together?

You mean, never produced any living children? Or are you asserting that all the stillbirths were also not fathered by Aerys? Or perhaps they were attempts to "cleanse" herself of Aerys seed, like Cersei aborted Robert's - or was that only on the mummer's version?

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

It would be interesting if we find out that Rhaegar’s father was actually Lord Velaryon, the same Lord who died in the ill fated Battle of the Blackwater.  

In this case, Rhaegar would come to the conclusion that he could not be the Prince that was Promised.  Now if so, why would he conclude that it could be his son?

Interesting idea, although why would both parents need to be Targaryen? Couldn't the PtwP descend from a single Targaryen?

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Then ask yourself, after Aerys went through the trouble of sending Steffon out across the sea to find a suitably, Valyrian bride for Rhaegar, why he then later decided consent to the marriage of Rhaegar to Elia?  Is it because, Elia’s great, great, great grandmother was a Targaryen?  Or did Aerys have reason to believe that Elia was his own blood?  

Why did Aerys show distaste for Elia and her children saying they "smelled Dornish"? Was he expecting them to look more Targaryen?

7 hours ago, Black Crow said:

But why Aerys and Rhaella?

Are we missing something here?

Doubling the chances? 

5 hours ago, alienarea said:

In general, it would have been easier if the Dothraki were located South of Dorne, maybe with a second wall to keep the horselords out.

That could better explain why Oberyn shows up at KL when he did and not earlier; he was busy dealing with the Dothraki.

We could skip a lot of Daenery's stuff, Euron and Victarion, and have the Sandsnakes join Daenerys after Oberyn's death, opening the Southern walk for the Dothraki. 

It would also add to Ned and Arthur Dayne, protector of the Northern wall and protector of the Southern wall.

Why skip anything? I love all the characters, and if you understand the symbolism and all the metaphors the last two books are extra fun to read! 

[Frey family reunion]

55 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

You mean, never produced any living children? Or are you asserting that all the stillbirths were also not fathered by Aerys? Or perhaps they were attempts to "cleanse" herself of Aerys seed, like Cersei aborted Robert's - or was that only on the mummer's version?

No, I think the stillbirths, early terminations, and early deaths may have been the only actual children conceived by Aerys and Rhaella.  I don't know if it's Rhaella intentionally terminating the pregnancies, or if it has to do with a genetic incompatibility between Aerys and Rhaella.  Or perhaps both. 

55 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Interesting idea, although why would both parents need to be Targaryen? Couldn't the PtwP descend from a single Targaryen?

If the Wood's witch is correct, then the Prince that was Promised comes from the line of both Aerys and Rhaella.  So that means one of two things.  Either the child of Aerys and Rhaella, or a grandchild of Aerys and Rhaella.  Now if a grandchild, then it could be in the conventional sense, that the Prince that was Promised would be a child of a trueborn child of Aerys and Rhaella.  Or in an unconventional sense, as I'm suggesting. 

But if we're going by the wood's witch prophecy, this child's lineage should include both Aerys and Rhaella.

55 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Why did Aerys show distaste for Elia and her children saying they "smelled Dornish"? Was he expecting them to look more Targaryen?

That's my thought.  If Aerys thought that Elia was his daughter, than I think he was disappointed that the child came out looking Dornish.  he'd be hoping that his Targaryen blood would have surfaced.  But it makes sense in a way.  Normally brown hair would be dominant over blond (or perhaps silver).  So if a brown haired person with a recessive blond trait, marries an individual with blond hair, then odds of the child having brown hair would be even with the odds of the child having blond.

[PrettyPig]

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Then ask yourself, after Aerys went through the trouble of sending Steffon out across the sea to find a suitably, Valyrian bride for Rhaegar, why he then later decided consent to the marriage of Rhaegar to Elia?  Is it because, Elia’s great, great, great grandmother was a Targaryen?  Or did Aerys have reason to believe that Elia was his own blood?

I think it’s simpler than that... this particular aspect is all political; although there is certainly a magical aspect, it is concurrent but separate from the political aims.    IMO, Aerys consented because he was baited with the carrot of Dorne – House Martell dangled full unification under his nose, probably with some extra seasoning about reuniting the blood of the  dragon and the blood of Nymeria to fulfill some old prophecy (although I think this may have been a carrot for Rhaegar moreso than Aerys), and he fell for it.  

What he didn’t know or agree to was the caveat behind it, which was the acceptance/implementation of one major Dornish custom:  female primogeniture.     The catch to folding Dorne back into the realm was to bring back this practice and name Rhaenys as Rhaegar’s heir, a move that would, after only a generation or two, effectively transfer rule from House Targaryen to House Martell.    (We see almost this exact scenario with the transfer of power from Baratheon to Lannister after Robert’s death, and it’s obvious that Tywin was playing a really long game with regard to that takeover – Doran Martell (following the plan of his mother, most likely) was doing the same thing pre-Rebellion, and is still trying to play it now with the marriage alliances for his children.)    

If Aerys were to die or be removed from the throne, Rhaegar becomes his successor...and if Rhaegar has adopted Dornish inheritance law (“Changes will be made, I mean to call a council“), then by rights upon his death (which would most likely be unduly hastened by devious means, if I had my guess) the throne goes to Rhaenys.   Doran can also marry Arianne to Aegon and lock things up for House Martell with relation to rule of the 7 Kingdoms.  

This is most likely why Aerys rejected Rhaenys as “smelling Dornish“, went to the trouble to explicitly name Viserys as his heir, and held Elia and the children as hostages in KL during the rebellion – if Elia returned to Dorne with her children during the war, not only would he lose a much-needed army but the Martells would also crown Rhaenys and set up a Dance of Dragons 2.0 between her and Viserys.      This is mirrored in the Queenmaker plot (briefly entertained by Uncle Tyrion) involving Arianne and Myrcella, who is paired up with Trystane...she is inadvertently enacting the same plot as her father, albeit poorly.      

Per the Braavos pact brokered by Uncle Oberyn, Arianne was to marry Viserys (who per Dany would have jumped at the chance if it gained him Dorne’s army).   Oddly enough, although Quentyn has now been sent to woo Dany (again, promising the strength of Dorne for her takeover) in current story, there is no mention of a similar marriage pact forged for Quentyn and Dany, both of whom were alive at the time the Sealord’s pact was signed, which tells me that Doran suspected that Dany may not have been a legitimate Targaryen heir ( but now that she’s here and has dragons Doran is all about it, semantics be damned).  In addition, a relationship is being cultivated between Trystane and the girl who under Dornish law is the rightful heir to the IT and who is conveniently a “guest“ in Sunspear due to machinations of her uncle.   ALL of these matches, should they come to matrimonial fruition, will eventually produce Martell heirs and move the seat of power to Dorne.

As with the present-day story, there is a Game of Thrones side to events, and a Song of Ice and Fire side to events, and each side has multiple sub-plots playing out at the same time.   The magic part (which I won’t go into right now) is one of those sub-plots, and I suspect that then as now, there is another around a Blackfyre pretender.    Layers upon layers, and the trick is separating them from each other, even though they all combine to form one big conspiracy cake. 

All of this is a very long way of saying that, while I agree that there were other things going on, the motivation for the marriage between Rhaegar and Elia was primarily rooted in simple greed.  However, Rhaegar’s choices after the marriage really set the other wheels turning.  

For what it’s worth, all the Rebellion marriage and political plots are mirrored in Dany’s ADWD chapters - I believe her time in Meereen is a parallel to King’s Landing circa 279 -284.    Same game, different players.   

[Tucu]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

No, I think the stillbirths, early terminations, and early deaths may have been the only actual children conceived by Aerys and Rhaella.  I don't know if it's Rhaella intentionally terminating the pregnancies, or if it has to do with a genetic incompatibility between Aerys and Rhaella.  Or perhaps both. 

If the Wood's witch is correct, then the Prince that was Promised comes from the line of both Aerys and Rhaella.  So that means one of two things.  Either the child of Aerys and Rhaella, or a grandchild of Aerys and Rhaella.  Now if a grandchild, then it could be in the conventional sense, that the Prince that was Promised would be a child of a trueborn child of Aerys and Rhaella.  Or in an unconventional sense, as I'm suggesting. 

But if we're going by the wood's witch prophecy, this child's lineage should include both Aerys and Rhaella.

That's my thought.  If Aerys thought that Elia was his daughter, than I think he was disappointed that the child came out looking Dornish.  he'd be hoping that his Targaryen blood would have surfaced.  But it makes sense in a way.  Normally brown hair would be dominant over blond (or perhaps silver).  So if a brown haired person with a recessive blond trait, marries an individual with blond hair, then odds of the child having brown hair would be even with the odds of the child having blond.

I find it interesting that the Targs and others are stumbling from piece to piece of the TPTWP prophecy (maybe mixed with Azor Ahai chunks). Was someone been deleting the information or hiding it as a puzzle?

Rhaegar thought it was him as in his mind he was born among salt and smoke; then he read about the bleeding star and thought it was Aegon as there was a comet when he was conceived. It looks like the GoHH gave her the bloodline part of the dragon recipe. He was still missing parts of that recipe: dragons from stone(eggs) and the father and son sacrifice. From Dany's ritual we can also infer that he was confused about being conceived or born under a bleeding star; the recipe probably calls to be reborn when the comet is visible.

Mel seems to know about the bleeding star, the salt and smoke, but it is confused about the stone part (no eggs in her recipe) and the correct bloodline. The Queen's men later mentioned the father and son ingredient; either Mel found some extra information at The Wall or she didn't have access to those parts until he got hold of Mance and his son (maybe this is why he spared him).

 

 

[Melifeather]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

No, I think the stillbirths, early terminations, and early deaths may have been the only actual children conceived by Aerys and Rhaella.  I don't know if it's Rhaella intentionally terminating the pregnancies, or if it has to do with a genetic incompatibility between Aerys and Rhaella.  Or perhaps both. 

If the Wood's witch is correct, then the Prince that was Promised comes from the line of both Aerys and Rhaella.  So that means one of two things.  Either the child of Aerys and Rhaella, or a grandchild of Aerys and Rhaella.  Now if a grandchild, then it could be in the conventional sense, that the Prince that was Promised would be a child of a trueborn child of Aerys and Rhaella.  Or in an unconventional sense, as I'm suggesting. 

But if we're going by the wood's witch prophecy, this child's lineage should include both Aerys and Rhaella.

That's my thought.  If Aerys thought that Elia was his daughter, than I think he was disappointed that the child came out looking Dornish.  he'd be hoping that his Targaryen blood would have surfaced.  But it makes sense in a way.  Normally brown hair would be dominant over blond (or perhaps silver).  So if a brown haired person with a recessive blond trait, marries an individual with blond hair, then odds of the child having brown hair would be even with the odds of the child having blond.

I have a thought - taking your ideas a bit further - recall what Daenerys did with Drogo's funeral pyre: Drogo's corpse laid out, Mirri tied to one of the stakes, and then Daenerys walks into the flames. At what point did any human consciousnesses enter the three eggs? Did Rhaego enter one of the eggs earlier in Mirri's tent? Did Drogo also enter one of the eggs in Mirri's tent? Did Mirri enter an egg when she burned? Or was the third consciousness actually Rhaegar's? I'll explain in a minute, but first two passages:

Quote

  Yet when she slept that night, she dreamt the dragon dream again. Viserys was not in it this time. There was only her and the dragon. Its scales were black as night, wet and slick with blood. Her blood, Dany sensed. Its eyes were pools of molten magma, and when it opened its mouth, the flame came roaring out in a hot jet. She could hear it singing to her. She opened her arms to the fire, embraced it, let it swallow her whole, let it cleanse her and temper her and scour her clean. She could feel her flesh sear and blacken and slough away, could feel her blood boil and turn to steam, and yet there was no pain. She felt strong and new and fierce.

 

Quote

That night she dreamt that she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurper’s rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent. Some small part of her knew that she was dreaming, but another part exulted. This is how it was meant to be. The other was a nightmare, and I have only now awakened.

 

We've been discussing the tower of joy as an earlier parallel to Mirri's resurrection of Drogo, but we've been leaving off part 2 which is Drogo's funeral pyre. If the resurrection of Rhaegar was unsuccessful - and I think it wasn't due to Willam Dustin's horse surviving and being brought home, and no dead unborn child (Daenerys) - then step two would be to burn Rhaegar's body.

During Drogo's resurrection Rhaego's spirit died and his physical body was born deformed with a dragon's tail - the spirit had gone into the father. If the tower of joy was a failed resurrection and Rhaella was there, then when Rhaegar's body was burned his spirit went into the as yet unborn Daenerys - the spirit had gone into the child. Dany had been carrying Rhaegar's spirit until one of them went into the egg. The first dream above has Dany imagining herself as walking into the flames of a dragon and afterward she felt strong and new. Did Daenery's spirit leave her body and go into one of the eggs? Because in the second dream she dreamt she was Rhaegar at the Trident, and she felt she was Rhaegar riding on a dragon - with her spirit inside the dragon. 

Or is it possible that she's both herself and Rhaegar and that a portion of their combined spirit is in one of the eggs? I say that because in skinchanging part of the human joins with the animal's consciousness and part of the animal joins to the human consciousness, and those parts remain in each other.

 

[Melifeather]

18 minutes ago, PrettyPig said:

I think it’s simpler than that... this particular aspect is all political; although there is certainly a magical aspect, it is concurrent but separate from the political aims.    IMO, Aerys consented because he was baited with the carrot of Dorne – House Martell dangled full unification under his nose, probably with some extra seasoning about reuniting the blood of the  dragon and the blood of Nymeria to fulfill some old prophecy (although I think this may have been a carrot for Rhaegar moreso than Aerys), and he fell for it.  

What he didn’t know or agree to was the caveat behind it, which was the acceptance/implementation of one major Dornish custom:  female primogeniture.     The catch to folding Dorne back into the realm was to bring back this practice and name Rhaenys as Rhaegar’s heir, a move that would, after only a generation or two, effectively transfer rule from House Targaryen to House Martell.    (We see almost this exact scenario with the transfer of power from Baratheon to Lannister after Robert’s death, and it’s obvious that Tywin was playing a really long game with regard to that takeover – Doran Martell (following the plan of his mother, most likely) was doing the same thing pre-Rebellion, and is still trying to play it now with the marriage alliances for his children.)    

If Aerys were to die or be removed from the throne, Rhaegar becomes his successor...and if Rhaegar has adopted Dornish inheritance law (“Changes will be made, I mean to call a council“), then by rights upon his death (which would most likely be unduly hastened by devious means, if I had my guess) the throne goes to Rhaenys.   Doran can also marry Arianne to Aegon and lock things up for House Martell with relation to rule of the 7 Kingdoms.  

This is most likely why Aerys rejected Rhaenys as “smelling Dornish“, went to the trouble to explicitly name Viserys as his heir, and held Elia and the children as hostages in KL during the rebellion – if Elia returned to Dorne with her children during the war, not only would he lose a much-needed army but the Martells would also crown Rhaenys and set up a Dance of Dragons 2.0 between her and Viserys.      This is mirrored in the Queenmaker plot (briefly entertained by Uncle Tyrion) involving Arianne and Myrcella, who is paired up with Trystane...she is inadvertently enacting the same plot as her father, albeit poorly.      

Per the Braavos pact brokered by Uncle Oberyn, Arianne was to marry Viserys (who per Dany would have jumped at the chance if it gained him Dorne’s army).   Oddly enough, although Quentyn has now been sent to woo Dany (again, promising the strength of Dorne for her takeover) in current story, there is no mention of a similar marriage pact forged for Quentyn and Dany, both of whom were alive at the time the Sealord’s pact was signed, which tells me that Doran suspected that Dany may not have been a legitimate Targaryen heir ( but now that she’s here and has dragons Doran is all about it, semantics be damned).  In addition, a relationship is being cultivated between Trystane and the girl who under Dornish law is the rightful heir to the IT and who is conveniently a “guest“ in Sunspear due to machinations of her uncle.   ALL of these matches, should they come to matrimonial fruition, will eventually produce Martell heirs and move the seat of power to Dorne.

As with the present-day story, there is a Game of Thrones side to events, and a Song of Ice and Fire side to events, and each side has multiple sub-plots playing out at the same time.   The magic part (which I won’t go into right now) is one of those sub-plots, and I suspect that then as now, there is another around a Blackfyre pretender.    Layers upon layers, and the trick is separating them from each other, even though they all combine to form one big conspiracy cake. 

All of this is a very long way of saying that, while I agree that there were other things going on, the motivation for the marriage between Rhaegar and Elia was primarily rooted in simple greed.  However, Rhaegar’s choices after the marriage really set the other wheels turning.  

For what it’s worth, all the Rebellion marriage and political plots are mirrored in Dany’s ADWD chapters - I believe her time in Meereen is a parallel to King’s Landing circa 279 -284.    Same game, different players.   

Oh wow, great analysis and it makes total sense to me!

[Tucu]

23 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I have a thought - taking your ideas a bit further - recall what Daenerys did with Drogo's funeral pyre: Drogo's corpse laid out, Mirri tied to one of the stakes, and then Daenerys walks into the flames. At what point did any human consciousnesses enter the three eggs? Did Rhaego enter one of the eggs earlier in Mirri's tent? Did Drogo also enter one of the eggs in Mirri's tent? Did Mirri enter an egg when she burned? Or was the third consciousness actually Rhaegar's? I'll explain in a minute, but first two passages:

 

 

We've been discussing the tower of joy as an earlier parallel to Mirri's resurrection of Drogo, but we've been leaving off part 2 which is Drogo's funeral pyre. If the resurrection of Rhaegar was unsuccessful - and I think it wasn't due to Willam Dustin's horse surviving and being brought home, and no dead unborn child (Daenerys) - then step two would be to burn Rhaegar's body.

During Drogo's resurrection Rhaego's spirit died and his physical body was born deformed with a dragon's tail - the spirit had gone into the father. If the tower of joy was a failed resurrection and Rhaella was there, then when Rhaegar's body was burned his spirit went into the as yet unborn Daenerys - the spirit had gone into the child. Dany had been carrying Rhaegar's spirit until one of them went into the egg. The first dream above has Dany imagining herself as walking into the flames of a dragon and afterward she felt strong and new. Did Daenery's spirit leave her body and go into one of the eggs? Because in the second dream she dreamt she was Rhaegar at the Trident, and she felt she was Rhaegar riding on a dragon - with her spirit inside the dragon. 

Or is it possible that she's both herself and Rhaegar and that a portion of their combined spirit is in one of the eggs? I say that because in skinchanging part of the human joins with the animal's consciousness and part of the animal joins to the human consciousness, and those parts remain in each other.

 

In Mirri's tent we have two noticeable shadows (ghosts?). I would say that this is were the soul exchange happened (with the addition of either Drogo or Rhaego).

Quote

She glimpsed the shadow of a great wolf, and another like a man wreathed in flames.

The great wolf could be a Stark (Ned? Lyanna?). The man wreathed in flames could be Rhaegar.

[Brad Stark]

What if Aerys and Rhaella never had any children?  Then we know the idea tpwwp is descended from them is wrong.  

We have an interesting parallel between their children, the state of Aerys mind and also their marriage.  They never were in love, but in the beginning, Aerys was relatively sane and the marriage was relatively healthy.  They had a son Rhaegar, who at least according to some flawed points of view, near perfect - handsome, strong, smart, charismatic. Then things degraded and they had Visceris who was weak and selfish. As Aerys became more insane, they only had stillbirths. 

What is interesting is Dany, who turned out well, despite being the last pregnancy.  This is part of why I don't think she's their daughter.  But the parallel still works if she is, as Aerys stopped beating his wife when he died. 

[Melifeather]

If Rhaegar’s spirit went into as yet unborn Daenerys, I wonder what Aegon V’s intentions were at Summerhal, and whether or not his spirit went into as yet unborn Rhaegar?

[PrettyPig]

1 hour ago, Tucu said:

I find it interesting that the Targs and others are stumbling from piece to piece of the TPTWP prophecy (maybe mixed with Azor Ahai chunks). Was someone been deleting the information or hiding it as a puzzle?

Rhaegar thought it was him as in his mind he was born among salt and smoke; then he read about the bleeding star and thought it was Aegon as there was a comet when he was conceived. It looks like the GoHH gave her the bloodline part of the dragon recipe. He was still missing parts of that recipe: dragons from stone(eggs) and the father and son sacrifice. From Dany's ritual we can also infer that he was confused about being conceived or born under a bleeding star; the recipe probably calls to be reborn when the comet is visible.

 Mel seems to know about the bleeding star, the salt and smoke, but it is confused about the stone part (no eggs in her recipe) and the correct bloodline. The Queen's men later mentioned the father and son ingredient; either Mel found some extra information at The Wall or she didn't have access to those parts until he got hold of Mance and his son (maybe this is why he spared him).

With regard to prophecies about lines of so-and-so, stars bleeding, and darkness gathering, IMO this is an example of where we should heed GRRM’s warnings about taking prophecies too literally – something that I believe Melisandre is certainly doing and Rhaegar was also likely doing.      To misquote The Princess Bride, I do not think these words mean what people think they mean – in the vein of Nostradamian predictions, these prophecies are mega-metaphorical and not so face-value as an actual comet or whatever.    That story GRRM told about the guy and the castle comes to mind here.

So, in addition to there perhaps being a more figurative meaning of “bleeding star“ that characters in-story have overlooked/ignored/totally misinterpreted, we as readers may also be at the disadvantage (much like the characters) of not having complete information or the big picture yet that helps a more subtle translation become clear.     I suspect that a revelation in a future book (wishful thinking, I know) will shed a different light on this prophecy and have us all going , “Ohhhhh, I get it, NOW that makes sense!“, but for the time being we are all in the same boat with Mel and Stannis and Rhaegar and everyone else who sees exactly what they want to see with it.  

(For the record, I have my own interpretation of it too, which is most likely spectacularly wrong.)

[Tucu]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

If Rhaegar’s spirit went into as yet unborn Daenerys, I wonder what Aegon V’s intentions were at Summerhal, and whether or not his spirit went into as yet unborn Rhaegar?

I think Aegon wanted to sacrifice himself and his first born to give birth to dragons again. He failed as he didn't have the full recipe and the right ingredients.

[Tucu]

2 hours ago, PrettyPig said:

With regard to prophecies about lines of so-and-so, stars bleeding, and darkness gathering, IMO this is an example of where we should heed GRRM’s warnings about taking prophecies too literally – something that I believe Melisandre is certainly doing and Rhaegar was also likely doing.      To misquote The Princess Bride, I do not think these words mean what people think they mean – in the vein of Nostradamian predictions, these prophecies are mega-metaphorical and not so face-value as an actual comet or whatever.    That story GRRM told about the guy and the castle comes to mind here.

So, in addition to there perhaps being a more figurative meaning of “bleeding star“ that characters in-story have overlooked/ignored/totally misinterpreted, we as readers may also be at the disadvantage (much like the characters) of not having complete information or the big picture yet that helps a more subtle translation become clear.     I suspect that a revelation in a future book (wishful thinking, I know) will shed a different light on this prophecy and have us all going , “Ohhhhh, I get it, NOW that makes sense!“, but for the time being we are all in the same boat with Mel and Stannis and Rhaegar and everyone else who sees exactly what they want to see with it.  

(For the record, I have my own interpretation of it too, which is most likely spectacularly wrong.)

As readers we have the advantage of seeing Dany's ritual; then we can read the bits of prophetic visions going around and see how Dany's actions fit. The characters can only depend on interpretations of visions written long ago (or their own visions in the case of Mel). I like how GRRM applied the "many-worlds interpretation" to a fantasy context mixing it with fate: characters seeing possible versions of the future and then going crazy trying to understand what went wrong with their interpretation.