Heresy 210 and the Babes in the Wood

[alienarea]

11 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Well that's the standard argument by the R+L=J crowd, but it ignores Tucu's point.

The Kings Guard are exactly what it says on the tin. Their primary purpose is to guard the King's person. This duty can also be extended to other members of the Royal family, but ordinarily it would require the express instruction/consent of the King. They can of course be absent on other duties, but again its the King who sends them.

What have we actually got happening.

The King [Aerys]: is attended by Jaime Lannister, the youngest and least trusted of the Guard

The Queen: as above until sent to Dragonstone, without an attendant member of the Guard

The Heir [Rhaegar]: has Ser Baristan Selmy, Prince Lewyn Martell and Ser Jonothor Darry, although they were commanding troops at the Trident rather than catching bullets

The Spare [Viserys]: When Rhaegar pops his clogs Aerys nominates his own second son Viserys to be his heir, rather than dead Rhaegar's eldest son Aegon. There is a problem; Viserys is safely on Dragonstone but has no Kings Guard while Aegon is also under the nominal protection of Jaime Lannister who turns out to be as much use as the proverbial chocolate teapot.

Why?

Because the Lord Commander and the remaining two members of the Guard are gallivanting off in Dorne and unavailable, and whatever the truth of Jon's parentage, even if he is the son of Rhaegar he hasn't yet been born and he comes after all those mentioned above in the order of succession.

The three musketeers may have been obeying orders, or believed that they were obeying orders but the reality is that someone has done a pretty good job of filleting all the protection from the royal family

And that smells of Tywin Lannister, doesn't it?

He may also have given Jaime a "hint". 

If his long game was to get Cersei on the throne via Robert, he may have faked orders to the three KG at the ToJ to keep Lyanna away from Robert at all costs (worded differently not mentioning Robert)

[Brad Stark]

14 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Well that's the standard argument by the R+L=J crowd, but it ignores Tucu's point.

The Kings Guard are exactly what it says on the tin. Their primary purpose is to guard the King's person. This duty can also be extended to other members of the Royal family, but ordinarily it would require the express instruction/consent of the King. They can of course be absent on other duties, but again its the King who sends them.

What have we actually got happening.

The King [Aerys]: is attended by Jaime Lannister, the youngest and least trusted of the Guard

The Queen: as above until sent to Dragonstone, without an attendant member of the Guard

The Heir [Rhaegar]: has Ser Baristan Selmy, Prince Lewyn Martell and Ser Jonothor Darry, although they were commanding troops at the Trident rather than catching bullets

The Spare [Viserys]: When Rhaegar pops his clogs Aerys nominates his own second son Viserys to be his heir, rather than dead Rhaegar's eldest son Aegon. There is a problem; Viserys is safely on Dragonstone but has no Kings Guard while Aegon is also under the nominal protection of Jaime Lannister who turns out to be as much use as the proverbial chocolate teapot.

Why?

Because the Lord Commander and the remaining two members of the Guard are gallivanting off in Dorne and unavailable, and whatever the truth of Jon's parentage, even if he is the son of Rhaegar he hasn't yet been born and he comes after all those mentioned above in the order of succession.

The three musketeers may have been obeying orders, or believed that they were obeying orders but the reality is that someone has done a pretty good job of filleting all the protection from the royal family

So you are saying the Kingsguard are directly under Aerys's control and were deliberately removed from protecting the royal family and battle?  Because those are contradictory unless Aerys deliberately sabotaged himself to end his family's rule. 

I don't buy that the KG would listen to Tywin and not Rhaegar.  Tywin was no longer Hand by the time this happened. And Tywin either was playing both sides all along or changed sides after realizing Aerys was going to lose.

[Brad Stark]

Suppose Aerys had some ability to know the future.  This fits with his madness and what we know of the Targaryens.  What if we knew his own son would kill him but thought it would be Rhaegar and not Jamie?  

We have hints as to a power struggle between Rhaegar and Aerys, we know Aerys named Viseris his heir, Rhaegar died on the Trident without the help of his KG, and Rhaegar's wife and kids were left unprotected. 

This doesn't tell us anything about why the KG were in Dorne, and actually works against the 'baby king' idea, but does explain why and how Aerys would set up the KG to do most of what they did. 

[Tucu]

13 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

This is a great mystery, and I'm hoping its one we'll receive an answer for, but I do tend to wonder if Aerys was experimenting with child sacrifice due to his interest in either hatching dragons or becoming a dragon himself.

Makes me wonder if the Stark/Baratheon/Arryn rebellion was already in its way and Lyanna/Brandon/Rhaegar/Aerys actions only triggered it earlier. Maybe Lyanna did a Sansa.

[Frey family reunion]

8 hours ago, PrettyPig said:

It seems that Aerys wasn’t a huge fan of Elia in general, what with shunning the wedding and ignoring her firstborn and all – and I also personally get the feeling that Aerys was something of a purist in terms of Valyrian physical characteristics as well as bloodline, hence why he sent Steffon across the Narrow Sea to look for a bride in the places that just so happen to have an abundance of silver-haired, purple-eyed people.   For him to finally settle for a Martell with "some" Targaryen heritage (whether fresh via his own doing or 3+ generations back), there had to be a bigger and better payoff than simply keeping the dragon blood alive,  IMO.     There was something that Aerys wanted for himself that was more significant than the genetic infusion provided by a frail flat-chested Dornish princess, even if she was 50% secret Targaryen.     That something could be the region of Dorne itself, or...it could be related to magic/prophecy, which leads me to my next scenario.

This is the reason, I'm skeptical that Aerys ok'd the marriage pact with the Dornes, based on them  merely being descendants of Daenaerys Targaryen-Martell. It's not enough of a Valyrian bloodline for him.   I think Aerys had to have had reason to believe that Elia was of his bloodline and the closest thing to a sister-bride that Rhaegar could have.  I don't think he sent Steffon across the sea to find a bride for any reason other than securing a Valyrian bloodline:

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In 278 AC, the king sent Lord Steffon across the narrow sea on a mission to Old Volantis, to seek a suitable bride for Prince Rhaegar, "a maid of noble birth from an old Valyrian bloodline."

Steffon Baratheon failed to find a bride and then his ship was sunk.  And then

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Early in the year 279 AC, Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone, was formally betrothed to Princess Elia Martell, the delicate young sister of Doran Martell, Prince of Dorne.

So this is a pretty quick about face for Aerys to go from needing a suitable Valyrian bride to allowing Rhaegar's marriage to Elia to take place.  My guess is Aerys settled for Elia because he realized that this was the closest thing to an old Valyrian bloodline he could find (his own).  But of course, there is no way he could be certain that Elia was in fact his, especially since she probably did not look Valyrian.  So he is rolling the dice.  His disappointment must have been pretty great when Elia and Rhaegar's first child came out looking so Dornish.  

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When Prince Rhaegar returned to the Red Keep to present his daughter to his own mother and father, Queen Rhaella embraced the babe warmly, but King Aerys refused to touch or hold the child and complained that she "smells Dornish."

 

So once again, we have to ask ourselves, why would Aerys' number one priority for a suitable marriage for Rhaegar go from a purely racial/bloodline to in less than a year, agreeing to a match with a bride who Aerys would consider racially inferior?  It could be political, but we don't have any info at this time to support it.  But I'm betting that the Princess of Dorne convinced Aerys that Elia was his.

 

8 hours ago, PrettyPig said:

That being said, though, while I believe Aerys enacted the plan, I’m still not entirely sure who devised the plan.  I doubt it was Aerys himself – he was always too impulsive and never particularly savvy re: his political dealings.   Mama Martell is a possibility given that she had already traipsed around the lower 7 trying to solve this problem, plus she had been in Rhaella's service at court and probably knew Aerys's weaknesses quite well.   I still can't pinpoint exactly when she fell out of the picture though, and when Doran (with lesser intimate knowledge of the workings of Aerys' King's Landing) would have taken over.     This actually makes me wonder if RHAEGAR pushed for the marriage (for his own prophectic purposes) using as bait the idea that Aerys could both gain a foothold in Sunspear AND secure Martell loyalty against a fledgling takeover plot – most likely the Southron Ambitions Alliance led by St. Jon of Arryn that was already underway.

I'm with you that the Prince that was Promised prophecy may originally be a Dornish one.  Note that we don't hear of the prophecy as associated with the Targaryens until either the reign of Aegon V, or possibly Aegon V's uncle Aerys I.  And remember, that Aerys I was half Martell.  And if this prophecy was a thousand years old, it should be noted that the Valyrians never had the notion of a prince until Aegon I formed his kingdom in Westeros.  However, the Rhoynes' primary sovereign was always a Prince.  So if at some point Rhaegar starts to doubt that he is the prince that was promised he might have turned to the Martells purely for purposes of the prophecy.  

In the meantime, after the Princess of Dorne's marriage proposals to the Lannisters were spurned by Tywin, she must have turned her attention to Rhaegar, with an understanding of what could convince Aerys that Elia would be an acceptable match.

ETA:  It's heavily implied in the discussion with Tyrion and Oberyn that the Princess of Dorne was involved in arranging the marriage of Elia to Rhaegar:

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"Well, Prince Rhaegar married Elia of Dorne, not Cersei Lannister of Casterly Rock.  So it would seem your mother won that tilt."

"She thought so," Prince Oberyn agreed, "but your father is not a man to forget such slights."

 

[Brad Stark]

I don't think Aerys or Rhaegar were particularly fond of the marriage to Elia.  But for Rhaegar not to marry would have been unthinkable.  So they picked the daughter of a great House with at least a little Targ blood absent a more suitable bride. 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

I don't think Aerys or Rhaegar were particularly fond of the marriage to Elia.  But for Rhaegar not to marry would have been unthinkable.  So they picked the daughter of a great House with at least a little Targ blood absent a more suitable bride. 

I think that’s the standard theory, and it could be certainly be true, but as i’ve Stated above, Joanna isn’t the only lady in waiting that Aerys was suspected of being with.

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Aerys II Targaryen and his sister, Rhaella, was not as happy; though she turned a blind eye to most of the king’s infidelities, the queen did not approve of his “turning my ladies into his whores.” (Joanna Lannister was not the first lady to be dismissed abruptly from Her Grace’s service, nor was she the last).

And we learn that Aerys has a reputation of being almost as bad as Aegon IV when it came to bedding the ladies:

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The young king was lively and active in the early years of his reign. He loved music, dancing, and masked balls, and was exceedingly fond of young women, filling his court with fair maidens from every corner of the realm. Some say he had as many mistresses as his ancestor Aegon the Unworthy

And the only other lady in waiting other than Joanna that we know of is the princess of Dorne 

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Prince Oberyn went on, as Ser Arron Qorgyle helped him into a padded leather tunic and began lacing it up the back. “Were you aware that our mothers knew each other of old?”

“They had been at court together as girls, I seem to recall. Companions to Princess Rhaella?”

“Just so.”

And then there is this curious bit where Oberyn refers to his mother and her “consort”

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“It was when I visited Casterly Rock with my mother, her consort, and my sister Elia. I was, oh, fourteen, fifteen, thereabouts, Elia a year older. Your brother and sister were eight or nine, as I recall, and you had just been born.”

I suppose that Oberyn’s father could have died prior to this meeting, and his mother could have taken up with a new man, however this seems an odd turn of phrase if Oberyn was referring to the Princess of Dorne’s husband.

Considering this was first set up in ASOS which is also when GRRM first set up the first of his Dunk and Egg stories, my thought is the second to last Dunk and Egg story leading up to Summerhall would have had a bit of court intrigue with a certain Princess of Dorne and a Lord Velaryon (or perhaps a member of the kingsguard)and their interactions with the recently betrothed Aerys and Rhaella.

[Brad Stark]

If Aerys knew who he fathered,  Rhaegar would have matched with Cersei. Either he didn't know or didn't care. Cersei looked much more Targ than Elia, and would have been chosen if that was his criteria. 

[Frey family reunion]

3 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

If Aerys knew who he fathered,  Rhaegar would have matched with Cersei. Either he didn't know or didn't care. Cersei looked much more Targ than Elia, and would have been chosen if that was his criteria. 

Of course you are assuming that Aerys fathered Cersei or thought he could have. What i’m proposing is that Aerys never had the opportunity to sleep with Joanna, so he knew that Cersei was not his blood.

In other words, Rhaella blamed the wrong lady in waiting.

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

So you are saying the Kingsguard are directly under Aerys's control and were deliberately removed from protecting the royal family and battle?  Because those are contradictory unless Aerys deliberately sabotaged himself to end his family's rule. 

I don't buy that the KG would listen to Tywin and not Rhaegar.  Tywin was no longer Hand by the time this happened. And Tywin either was playing both sides all along or changed sides after realizing Aerys was going to lose.

Oh there's no doubt they took their orders from Aerys, especially when one was the Lord Commander, and GRRM himself has explicitly said that they were obeying orders - whether they liked it or not. Aerys was the man, but the question is whether he issued those orders deliberately and with malice aforethought or whether he was being manipulated and if so by who.

It still comes down in the end to half of the Kings Guard off fighting a battle away from King's Landing and the other half including the Lord Commander even further away doing something unknown in Dorne, while the apprentice is left to guard the King, the Queen and all the other members of the Royal family all by his little self. Oh, and although Prince Rhaegar is accompanied in that battle by three members of the King's Guard none of them are his sworn shields and are far too busy fighting the battle to cover his back when the time tomes.

[Brad Stark]

9 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Of course you are assuming that Aerys fathered Cersei or thought he could have. What i’m proposing is that Aerys never had the opportunity to sleep with Joanna, so he knew that Cersei was not his blood.

In other words, Rhaella blamed the wrong lady in waiting.

The end of AFFC pretty much outright tells Jamie that Aerys is his father.  GRRM has also confirmed this in interviews. 

That doesn't mean Aerys knew or cared.  But if he slept with both mothers and wanted to choose a daughter, I'd assume he'd pick the one who looked like his family. 

[Brad Stark]

11 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Oh there's no doubt they took their orders from Aerys, especially when one was the Lord Commander, and GRRM himself has explicitly said that they were obeying orders - whether they liked it or not. Aerys was the man, but the question is whether he issued those orders deliberately and with malice aforethought or whether he was being manipulated and if so by who.

It still comes down in the end to half of the Kings Guard off fighting a battle away from King's Landing and the other half including the Lord Commander even further away doing something unknown in Dorne, while the apprentice is left to guard the King, the Queen and all the other members of the Royal family all by his little self. Oh, and although Prince Rhaegar is accompanied in that battle by three members of the King's Guard none of them are his sworn shields and are far too busy fighting the battle to cover his back when the time tomes.

If Aerys was manipulated into ordering his KG away, Tywin is the least likely suspect.  He was far away and mistrusted. Varys would be my bet. 

[Frey family reunion]

19 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

The end of AFFC pretty much outright tells Jamie that Aerys is his father.  GRRM has also confirmed this in interviews. 

That doesn't mean Aerys knew or cared.  But if he slept with both mothers and wanted to choose a daughter, I'd assume he'd pick the one who looked like his family. 

No it really doesn’t, it’s a only a theory.  And once again you have to direct my attention to where George confirmed it, because he pretty much never confirms any of these theories.

[PrettyPig]

Yeah, that’s just simply not true.   Ran even talked about the World Book blowing that theory out of the water while leaving open the possibility that Aerys fathered Tyrion. 

There’s also zero chance that GRRM positively and unequivocally confirmed this in an interview.

[JNR]

19 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Hightower being ordered to find Rhaegar is not in the books or in the Worldbook.  It is an invention of the wiki. 

It may be in the wiki, but it first appeared in the fapp (not a word of which was written by GRRM).

The idea given there is that for about half the war, Aerys knew where three KG were, and somehow never ordered them to return and defend him... and also, that Aerys knew where Lyanna was, and it somehow never crossed his mind to leverage her as a hostage to force Robert and Ned to stand down and thus win the war.

Well, this is simply a preposterous notion -- so preposterous, I'm amazed it ever found its way into the fapp. 

Because as we know from canon, Aerys, at exactly the same time, did think of leveraging Elia to force the Dornish to stay loyal to the crown (and it worked).  He may have been power-mad, but he could scheme quite well.

[JNR]

The wiki, of course, is full of assumptions and errors stated as if they were established facts.  Ultimately this is going to prove embarrassing to its authors.

[Brad Stark]

I will try to find the ssm, but how else can you interpret the end of AFFC? 

My interpretation is Joanna appears to Jamie, confirming Aerys and not Tywin is his father, as he believes.

 

Possible, yet silly, alternatives:

The vision is someone other than Joanna trying to trick Jamie 

The vision is someone other than Joanna, but isn't trying to trick Jamie and just looks similar by coincidence 

The vision is irrelevant and just Jamie suffering from heat or dehydration 

Joanna is really in the vision, believes Jamie is not Tywin's, but is wrong 

 

Did I miss any other possibilities?  Silly or otherwise?  Because if not, Aerys is Jamie's father. 

[Matthew.]

37 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

I will try to find the ssm, but how else can you interpret the end of AFFC? 

My interpretation is Joanna appears to Jamie, confirming Aerys and not Tywin is his father, as he believes.

Do you mean this passage?
 

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"Will you forget your own lord father too? I wonder if you ever knew him, truly." Her eyes were green, her hair spun gold. He could not tell how old she was. Fifteen, he thought, or fifty. She climbed the steps to stand above the bier. "He could never abide being laughed at. That was the thing he hated most."

The context is that Jaime didn't understand Tywin, not that he didn't know the identity of his father; the person in question is almost certainly Tywin, not only because it cites a well established character trait, but because of the use of "lord father"--in comparison to, say, Dany and Barristan, who use the phrase "royal father" in reference to Aerys.

[Frey family reunion]

58 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

I will try to find the ssm, but how else can you interpret the end of AFFC? 

My interpretation is Joanna appears to Jamie, confirming Aerys and not Tywin is his father, as he believes.

 

Possible, yet silly, alternatives:

The vision is someone other than Joanna trying to trick Jamie 

The vision is someone other than Joanna, but isn't trying to trick Jamie and just looks similar by coincidence 

The vision is irrelevant and just Jamie suffering from heat or dehydration 

Joanna is really in the vision, believes Jamie is not Tywin's, but is wrong 

 

Did I miss any other possibilities?  Silly or otherwise?  Because if not, Aerys is Jamie's father. 

I think the most reasonable interpretation of the vision, is that Jaime is coming to the realization that he and his sister are huge disappointments to their father.  The vision is coming from his own subconscious.

Let's start with the first bit:

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"Will you forget your own lord father too?  I wonder if you ever knew him, truly."...

"He could never abide being laughed at.  That was the thing he hated the most."

It certainly appears that she's talking about Tywin:

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Unbidden, a memory came to her, of the feast King Aerys had thrown when Cersei first came to court, a girl as green as summer grass.  Old Merryweather had been nattering about raising the duty on wine when Lord Rykker said, "If we need gold, His grace should sit Lord Tywin on his chamber pot."  Aerys and his lickspittles laughed loudly, whilst Father stared at Rykker over his wine cup.  Long after the merriment had died that gaze had lingered.  Rykker turned away, turned back, met Father's eyes, then ignored them, drank a tankard of ale, and stalked off red-faced defeated by a pair of unflinching eyes.

and

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"Hear us roar."  Jaime grinned.  "Next you'll be telling me how much he liked to laugh."

"No.  Tywin mistrusted laughter.  He heard too many people laughing at your grandsire."

Then we get this:

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"We all dream of things we cannot have.  Tywin dreamed that his son would be a great knight, that his daughter would be a queen.  He dreamed they would be so strong and brave and beautiful that no one would ever laugh at them."

"I am a knight," he told her, "and Cersei is a queen."

A tear rolled down her cheek.

She sheds the tear because Jaime is missing the point.  The impetus isn't about them becoming a knight or a queen, the impetus is that they would be respected, and not laughed at.  So what happens?

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That boy had wanted to be Ser Arthur Dayne, but someplace along the way he had become the Smiling Knight instead.

and Cersei:

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Halfway down Visenya's Hill the queen fell for the first time, when her foot slipped in something that might have been nightsoil.  When Septa Unella pulled her up, her knee was scraped and bloody.  A ragged laugh rippled through the crowd, and some man shouted out an offer to kiss it and make it better.

And all of this comes after Jaime's attempt to parlay with his former idol, Brynden Tully.  Who held him in complete contempt.  After this vision, Jaime comes to a realization that he had to step up to his father's example (and yes, you read that right):

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Snow in the riverlands.  If it was snowing here, it could well be snowing on Lannisport as well, and on King's Landing.  Winter is marching south, and half our granaries are empty.  Any crops still in the fields were doomed.  There would be no more plantings, no more hopes of one last harvest.  He found himself wondering what his father would do to feed the realm, before he remembered that Tywin Lannister was dead.

So then he gets the message calling him back to King's Landing to save his sister.  Instead he chooses, to try and step up and save the realm.

[Brad Stark]

This is what I referred to. 

The distinction between whether it really is Joanna or she is just in Jamie's mind is irrelevant as long as the vision is relevant.  GRRM likely won't give us further clarification on this.  My point was the vision is relevant. 

I have to reread the passage, but I read it as ""He could never abide being laughed at.  That was the thing he hated the most" being Jamie's response to Joanna's question.  If that was part of Joanna's speech, it changes everything and that makes sense.  But then the part about Tywin wanting what he can't have doesn't fit. 

The irony of Jeffrey having a better claim to the throne than Robert when so much of the first book is about Jamie's incest, and Tywin's doing everything for his family and disliking his only real son are both too much like GRRM for me to believe Jamie could possibly be Tywin's son.