Heresy 210 and the Babes in the Wood

[St Daga]

34 minutes ago, Tucu said:

For Rhaegar we have Aemon's opinion that TPTWP is about dragons; given the exchange of ideas between Aemon and Rhaegar it is a reasonable assumption that Rhaegar wanted dragons.

 

3 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

The prince that was promised prophecy seems to be tied to successfully hatching dragons, at least that is Maester Aemon's conclusion.

We do get this information from Aemon, but he is just as unreliable as anyone. And he has had a lot of years on the wall to think of these things, and several of those years were after Rhaegar and Aerys's deaths. Perhaps he thought it had to do with dragon hatching while other's thought it had to do with actually becoming a dragon (Aerion Brightflame), or even something else. A true warrior/conqueror. Aegon I is referred to as Aegon the Dragon. But he wasn't a dragon, although he had them. I think this could be confusion of translating people with their sigil, like Stark's are wolves and Lannister's are lions. They are not really, unless you consider the Stark warg bond, and we don't know that all Stark's have that ability, and yet they are all referred to as wolves.

 

8 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

at least that is Maester Aemon's conclusion. All the rituals, sacrifices, and burnings, namely the Summerhal tragedy,

38 minutes ago, Tucu said:

How far would he go for dragons we don't know. What we know is that a nice guy like Egg was willing to resort to (blood)magic and sacrifices.

Again, it is Aemon that we hear about this from. One person's perception of events doesn't make it the truth. Aemon wasn't at Summerhall, he was at the wall. While it makes sense that the fire at Summerhall was indeed about hatching dragon eggs, we don't know that for sure. What we know is that there was a fire and the majority of the royal family was killed. Heck, they might have been having a family reunion and the Citadel or the Faith decided it was a good time to take them all out, and it had nothing to do with dragons. Or Jaehaerys wanted to assume the throne from his father much sooner than otherwise, or why did he manage to live when so many other's did not. I am playing a little devil's advocate here, but Aemon's end of life ramblings include thinking the Rhaegar was the prince that was promised but his now thinking it was Daenerys who is the prince(ess) and that "the dragon's prove it". The dragon's prove what, exactly? So, is TPTWP about hatching dragons or about the person who hatches dragons? Or is it all still a missinterpretion of one man, Aemon. 

I have not read the Dunk and Egg stories, so I have no real perception of Egg, or his opinion on the Targaryen's being without dragons. So, I could be missing a huge part of the hints that are involved about this. 

Still, I think that the Prince that was Promised prophecy is going to turn out to have nothing, or very little, to do with dragons. Time will tell if my speculation is just as unreliable as Aemon's mutterings.

[Tucu]

36 minutes ago, St Daga said:

 

We do get this information from Aemon, but he is just as unreliable as anyone. And he has had a lot of years on the wall to think of these things, and several of those years were after Rhaegar and Aerys's deaths. Perhaps he thought it had to do with dragon hatching while other's thought it had to do with actually becoming a dragon (Aerion Brightflame), or even something else. A true warrior/conqueror. Aegon I is referred to as Aegon the Dragon. But he wasn't a dragon, although he had them. I think this could be confusion of translating people with their sigil, like Stark's are wolves and Lannister's are lions. They are not really, unless you consider the Stark warg bond, and we don't know that all Stark's have that ability, and yet they are all referred to as wolves.

 

Again, it is Aemon that we hear about this from. One person's perception of events doesn't make it the truth. Aemon wasn't at Summerhall, he was at the wall. While it makes sense that the fire at Summerhall was indeed about hatching dragon eggs, we don't know that for sure. What we know is that there was a fire and the majority of the royal family was killed. Heck, they might have been having a family reunion and the Citadel or the Faith decided it was a good time to take them all out, and it had nothing to do with dragons. Or Jaehaerys wanted to assume the throne from his father much sooner than otherwise, or why did he manage to live when so many other's did not. I am playing a little devil's advocate here, but Aemon's end of life ramblings include thinking the Rhaegar was the prince that was promised but his now thinking it was Daenerys who is the prince(ess) and that "the dragon's prove it". The dragon's prove what, exactly? So, is TPTWP about hatching dragons or about the person who hatches dragons? Or is it all still a missinterpretion of one man, Aemon. 

I have not read the Dunk and Egg stories, so I have no real perception of Egg, or his opinion on the Targaryen's being without dragons. So, I could be missing a huge part of the hints that are involved about this. 

Still, I think that the Prince that was Promised prophecy is going to turn out to have nothing, or very little, to do with dragons. Time will tell if my speculation is just as unreliable as Aemon's mutterings.

We also have Melisandre's version of the prophecy (although mixed with Azor Ahai) that talks about waking the dragons from stone; Aemon seems ok with the mix of TPTWP and Azor Ahai. Marwyn is also not surprised that Aemon saw Dany as the TPTWP (even if the doesn't trust prophecies)

[Black Crow]

4 hours ago, Matthew. said:

There's a difference between being a member of the current iteration of the Golden Company and being a Blackfyre supporter--some members are not even Westerosi, and others are more recent exiles (eg, Duck) who have no relationship to the Blackfyre rebellion; it is a collection of strays, many of whom would gladly attach themselves to any cause that will bring them home.
 

Perfectly true, but my point is that they are not being asked to change sides, its following the dragon against the world. Red versus black no longer matters. What I'm suggesting does matter is that young Griff may be being promoted as Aegon Targaryen the legitimate son and heir of Rhaegar the Dragon rather than his illegitimate by-blow by Ashara Dayne

[JNR]

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

However, it would have come at an inconvenient time.  In AFFC, Aurane is supposed to be 22 years of age.  This would have placed his conception either during Duskendale, or immediately after Dunskendale

It's an interesting point. However, Duskendale didn't last a whole year, and Aurane being 22 in AFFC doesn't clearly establish Aurane's year of birth, since we don't know if he had already had his birthday that year or not... so it remains an ambiguous matter for me.  There's plenty of wiggle room.

But I do broadly agree with PrettyPig that Aerys' nature is well established enough that I'd expect some bastards floating around.

Particularly if R+L≠J -- because then the popular cry "we already have a secret Targ" falls much flatter.

 

[JNR]

5 hours ago, St Daga said:

So, perhaps [Dayne] should have broken a vow and didn't (which relates to his sadness in Ned's dream) and which Ned honors him for, while Jaime breaks a vow and kills a tyrant while Ned forever blames Jaime for his lack of honor.

This is more or less exactly how I think Ned does see things.  

We can say Dayne should have broken his vow, because we're looking at him through a contemporary prism, but in Westeros his loyalty was all that mattered.

It's the same way Hightower saw things, too, and I think we can infer it's the conventional way to assess these men:

Quote

As for Lord Rickard, the steel of his breastplate turned cherry-red before the end, and his gold melted off his spurs and dripped down into the fire. I stood at the foot of the Iron Throne in my white armor and white cloak, filling my head with thoughts of Cersei. After, Gerold Hightower himself took me aside and said to me, 'You swore a vow to guard the king, not to judge him.' That was the White Bull, loyal to the end and a better man than me, all agree.

Jaime's in the bitter barn when he says this, but he's not wrong.   "All agree."

[JNR]

3 hours ago, St Daga said:

Who is the northern candidate to be Aerys bastard?

Quote

a woman heavy with child emerged naked and dripping from the black pool, knelt before the tree, and begged the old gods for a son who would avenge her

This child.

[SirArthur]

On 7/27/2018 at 7:57 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Actually at this stage of the game there may be a great deal of genetic difference between a Targaryen and a Blackfyre.  Initially the Blackfyres probably had additional dragon riding lineages that the royal line did not have.  The royal Targaryen line was descended from Viserys I who never could hatch a dragon, and the daughter of a Lysenean banker, who to the best of our knowledge never hatched or rode a dragon.  

While the Blackfyre line is descended from these two, through Aegon IV, they are also descended from Aegon III through Daena Blackfyre.  And Aegon III was a dragonrider.

Now over the years, the Targaryens introduced a number of different bloodines (Martell, Dayne, Blackwood), and we really aren't privy to the lineage of anyone claiming to be a Blackfyre today.

A very theoretical idea for Westeros: there are no dragons around. (until Dany)

House Blackfyre has one point though: they are as related to the Targs as house Martell. Which is not really as much as Baratheon, Arryn, Rhae ('s house) and Daella ('s house). They are closer related. This almost sounds like a who is who of Robert's Rebellion. 

 

It is strange to base marriages on a theoretical dragon gene of another branch, when there aren't even dragons around to start hatching. 

[Tucu]

12 minutes ago, JNR said:

This child.

That vision is closer in time to Dunk visit to Winterfell and long before the part in which Lyanna beats her brother.

It seems like GRRM added a plug for The She-Wolves of Winterfell

[SirArthur]

On 7/27/2018 at 8:45 PM, Feather Crystal said:

IMO it does matter, and I think it would to the Golden Company as well, which has always been a Blackfyre company.

Or it is just business and traders and mercenaries are not so ideological as we assume. Illyrio just wants dragons to keep his shop open, Varys just believes in a stable kingdom through dragon power and the Golden Company wants to go home. 

[SirArthur]

8 hours ago, JNR said:

Meanwhile, we have Cersei looking at Aurane and on multiple occasions being struck by his extraordinary resemblance to Rhaegar...

The queen of derp strikes again. Some day she will correctly guess the identity of some random person, that will be the day when everything comes crashing down. 

[SirArthur]

3 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The prince that was promised prophecy seems to be tied to successfully hatching dragons, at least that is Maester Aemon's conclusion. All the rituals, sacrifices, and burnings, namely the Summerhal tragedy, Aerys II experiments, and I suspect Rhaegar's cremation, were all attempts to hatch dragons. They thought if a dragon was hatched at the end of it that the person responsible was the prince(ss) that was promised, however I suspect they are misinterpreting the prophecy. IMO the "prince(ss)" that was promised is the dragon hatched. In essence, you do this, this, and this, and if you do it right - you get a dragon. That's the promise.

I disagree. First Rhaegar thinks he is the promised prince. Later he thinks he has to become the warrior (from AA). The prince is tied to waking dragon(s) out of stone. 

This could be interpreted as hatching, but I guess you know the dragon waking stuff out of the earth well enough. 

I kind of agree with the idea that it already happened, but based on Aemon the prince that was promised could just be the prince. And dragon is the translation. So a prince is wakened out of stone, not a dragon. Anyway, full AA. 

[St Daga]

15 hours ago, JNR said:

19 hours ago, St Daga said:

Who is the northern candidate to be Aerys bastard?

Quote

a woman heavy with child emerged naked and dripping from the black pool, knelt before the tree, and begged the old gods for a son who would avenge her

This child.

I guess I am not sure where that vision falls into our timeline at. It's vague enough to be just about any generation. If we look at reverse chronological order, which it seems like these visions are given to Bran, then this falls between Benjen and Lyanna (I suppose this is them, but am not sold 100%) and a tall man kissing a slender woman, which people assume to be Dunk and Old Nan (perhaps). If this vision does fall there, do you think this woman is Lyarra Stark, Rickard's wife? Or some one else? Do you have a guess on who the child is? 

If the visions are not chronological, I really suspect this could be Lyanna, that she was pregnant at some point at Winterfell. Although if Bran thought this woman looked like Arya, who Lyanna is said to look like, he never let's on. So it is most likely not Lyanna, but I have a hard time letting this suspicion go.

 

17 hours ago, Tucu said:

We also have Melisandre's version of the prophecy (although mixed with Azor Ahai) that talks about waking the dragons from stone; Aemon seems ok with the mix of TPTWP and Azor Ahai. Marwyn is also not surprised that Aemon saw Dany as the TPTWP (even if the doesn't trust prophecies)

Last year, I entered a "question everything" mode in this story, and this idea that Summerhall was about the birth of dragons is one of the things I am very unsure of. As to Melisandre's version, I am not sold on that either. We get this information from her in Storm and Dance. I don't know if I trust her interpretations at all, although she does tell us that this is a prophecy that was written. If it was based purely on her interpretation of her visions, I would doubt even more. I think she see's what she see's, but she has some translation deficit. So, if we go based on what she says is written, then Azor Ahai come again is linked to dragons. But again, I am not sure "waking dragons from stone" is quite the same thing as what Dany does with her eggs. It's seems so similar that it seems foolish to question any difference, but I do think GRRM is planting a little twist. If Mel has amazing visions and connections, why can't she see that Dany has already done just what she seems to think Stannis needs to do? That is why I don't think it's the same thing.

However, it's possible that all of these prophecies are linked, or are even predicting the same thing. So, I see it's very possible that you are correct about these prophecies, I still see reason to doubt and question more common interpretations. About three years ago when I fell off the RLJ bandwagon, I perhaps hit my head and became concussed, and it caused me to doubt everything! 

ETA: I just reread the Davos chapter in Storm where he his looking around all the stone dragons at Dragonstone and wondering if they were once real dragons. My suspicion tells me this could have more to do with the "waking dragons from stone" than hatching eggs!

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, JNR said:

It's an interesting point. However, Duskendale didn't last a whole year, and Aurane being 22 in AFFC doesn't clearly establish Aurane's year of birth, since we don't know if he had already had his birthday that year or not... so it remains an ambiguous matter for me.  There's plenty of wiggle room.

But I do broadly agree with PrettyPig that Aerys' nature is well established enough that I'd expect some bastards floating around.

Particularly if R+L≠J -- because then the popular cry "we already have a secret Targ" falls much flatter.

 

I am a bit suspicious that the purpose of GRRM creating Duskendale may have been to allow a secret pregnancy to have occurred on Dragon Isle.  You get a half a year with the king indisposed and all the attention being diverted towards that city, and a protective kingsguard and castle staff on Dragonstone.  If that's the case, then Aurane could be a candidate for being Rhaella's bastard instead of Aerys.  It is a bit odd, that the text is so specific as to Aurane's age.  

The other possibility of a Targaryen bastard is Darkstar.  He certainly seems to have Aerys' winning personality at least.

[Frey family reunion]

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Perfectly true, but my point is that they are not being asked to change sides, its following the dragon against the world. Red versus black no longer matters. What I'm suggesting does matter is that young Griff may be being promoted as Aegon Targaryen the legitimate son and heir of Rhaegar the Dragon rather than his illegitimate by-blow by Ashara Dayne

Illyrio sure shrugs it off, and the longer the Golden Company exists without a Blackfyre to rally around, the less important it becomes.

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, SirArthur said:

The queen of derp strikes again. Some day she will correctly guess the identity of some random person, that will be the day when everything comes crashing down. 

We have Cersei seeing Rhaegar in Aurane, and Mormont seeing his estranged wife in Dany's hair, and Barristan seeing Ashara in Dany's eyes.  These could be clues or these could be these characters projecting something they wanted but could never attain (as in Cersei and Barristan) or projecting something they lost, like with Mormont.

[Black Crow]

After, Gerold Hightower himself took me aside and said to me, 'You swore a vow to guard the king, not to judge him.' That was the White Bull, loyal to the end and a better man than me, all agree.

Reading this passage again, its obvious that that if Gerold Hightower was obeying orders that took him/kept him away from the throne they could only have been given by Aerys - not Rhaegar

 

[JNR]

14 hours ago, Tucu said:

That vision is closer in time to Dunk visit to Winterfell and long before the part in which Lyanna beats her brother.

Well, the idea it's Dunk is only fan conjecture.

What we know is that the pregnant woman pops up earlier in time than Lyanna stick-fought Benjen (how many years, we cannot say).  Aerys had a busy sex life long before Lyanna was born, so there's no chronological issue.

[SirArthur]

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

After, Gerold Hightower himself took me aside and said to me, 'You swore a vow to guard the king, not to judge him.' That was the White Bull, loyal to the end and a better man than me, all agree.

Reading this passage again, its obvious that that if Gerold Hightower was obeying orders that took him/kept him away from the throne they could only have been given by Aerys - not Rhaegar

 

Cersei told Selmy his vow ended with the dead of the king. Don't know if it was Cersei derping again. I know Feather thinks just because three KG's are not mentioned does not mean they were not at the Trident. 

However, logic would dictate for Hightower to take the command at the Trident and not some KG as the wiki claims. I do not even know if any KG was in command, as the wiki says. Anyway, the fact that Hightower is not mentioned at the Trident as the most experienced KG suggests, he was not there.

Same for the moment when Jaime killed Aerys. Sure he could be there and just not be mentioned. But Hightower just being there without mention has something of a Mary Sue (the original Star Trek story) effect.

[JNR]

14 hours ago, SirArthur said:

The queen of derp strikes again.

Agreed, it's a little comical how she fools herself given the context that all of her own children were the secret bastards of an unexpected father.

[JNR]

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Reading this passage again, its obvious that that if Gerold Hightower was obeying orders that took him/kept him away from the throne they could only have been given by Aerys - not Rhaegar

And yet we have the Shaw interview, with GRRM weighing in differently on this exact point and telling us Rhaegar's orders were the reason the three KG never defended Aerys, or went to Viserys, at the end of the War.

I don't think there's really a conflict.  Suppose the sequence was this:

1. Aerys orders Hightower to find Rhaegar because Aerys wants to appoint Rhaegar his wartime Hand.  (We know from Jaime that Aerys did want to do this, and that Rhaegar could not be found.) 

2. One way or another, at some point, we know Hightower winds up with Dayne and Whent (though not necessarily Rhaegar).

3. Rhaegar's orders, given to Dayne and Whent and possibly also Hightower, are made with Rhaegar's concept of the future in mind: that he will return to King's Landing, defeat Robert, and preserve Targ rule, etc.

4. These orders from Rhaegar are strict and cannot simply be ignored or forgotten.  They can only be trumped by orders from Aerys himself.  They also require the three KG to be (as we're told in the TOJ dream dialogue) "far away" from King's Landing for unspecified reasons, at an unspecified location.

5. Aerys has no idea where the three KG are in the second half of the war, which is why he never orders them to return and defend him.   Rhaegar's orders cannot be trumped.

Thus we see that it's possible for the three KG to be far away from Aerys while living up to their vow and their orders to the fullest extent they can.  And we can also infer with confidence that Rhaegar's orders did not permit Ned or his people to enter that tower.