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Black Crow

Heresy 210 and the Babes in the Wood

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3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

At this point I don't really have a dog in this race, but historically older bastards have always been seen as a threat to younger but legitimate siblings, so I think its not only possible but likely that GRRM is setting this up for Jon being older than Robb. Of course even if he was the same age or even slightly younger than Robb, now that Robb has dropped off his perch Jon is unquestionably older than Bran and Rickon. 

So why would the fact that Jon might be older than Robb matter when they were both above ground? If Jon is older then GRRM has set this up for a reason that may have nothing to do with the Winterfell Succession

This is the thing though, I don't think GRRM was "setting" up a scenario that Jon was older. That was always there in the text. It just got overlooked and thrown on the back burner by fans because of preconceived notions by about who Jon's parents were. The fault isn't GRRM being all cloak and dagger the fault was with us. It was plain as day that if the FM story is true that Jon would be the oldest son. It was very evident if the rumor about Ned and Ashara at Harrenhal is true Jon is older. He always was older, we just ignored the not to subtle text that he was. The fact that Robb is dead and Bran and Rickon are believed to be dead by him have no bearing on what was always there. If and when Jon finds out about his parentage and it turns out not Ned isn't his father the last thing on his mind would be " Oh I'm older than Robb."I mean that won't matter to the situation.

Then we should also consider Jon is of a particular mindset pre getting stabbed. As long as Sansa is alive and he knows she is, he will deny WF. as he's always done. Let's say Rickon does show up( i think he will sit in WF as Jon's counterpart it's all about the black and white wolf) and Jon is alive, has all his faculties if it's in his power to help and he could, he would help Rickon sit WF's seat instead of wanting to take it. Rickon is a legitimate heir who the North would rally to and he has a wildling as a protector and advisor. People are looking at Jon to unite the North and bring in the Wildlings. Rickon could do the very same thing.

Jon's path to me lay elsewhere and that's deep within the earth.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, alienarea said:

As an out-of-universe approach:

GRRM messed up the timing. 

- if Ned had met Jon's mother during the rebellion, Jon is younger than Rob, but Ned would have cheated on Catelyn

- if Ned had sired Jon at/around Harrenhal Jon is older than Robb

- what does not fit at all: if Ned had had other women than Catelyn during the war (and as the Red Hot Chili Peppers tell "every man has certain needs") this would not have been a big deal until he decided to bring the bastard home. This, of course, angers Catelyn, because the other women is always present from now on. I fail to understand how this would make Eddard "the honorable Ned" unless it's mocking.

In story: for above reason's Ashara Dayne had to fake suicide and disappear. With her supposedly being Jon's mother and dead Ned can calm Catelyn a bit, no living rival, no lowborn chest, a flirt that started when she was bethroted to Brandon ...

Maybe Ashara told Ned the truth about Rhaegar and Lyanna during the rebellion and they set this up together? Ned doesn't seem to be the cunning type ...

 

2

Nahhhhh GRRM didn't mess up. He did exactly as he meant to. Ned has said nothing regarding Jon's mother and that was the most genius move he could have made. Let people formulate their own opinion. Characters in the story have speculations and assumptions based on a belief in Ned's romantic relationship with various women. 

1. Ashara Dayne ( the name Cat heard whispered in WF as a possibility).

2.Fisherman's daughter( Stannis threw this in Jon's face and Davos heard this as well)

3. Some girl chance met on campaign ( Cat heard this before reaching WF)

4. Some Dornish peasant girl or Ashara per Cersei.

5. The one slip up according to Robert Ned ever had and Edric's pick...Wylla.

Anyhow it's sliced, Ned sacrificed his honorable moniker the moment he acknowledged Jon as his bastard son. Every time Ned's honor came up it was noted after that even he fathered a bastard so his honor had its price.

 

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On 7/17/2018 at 12:31 AM, Feather Crystal said:

Old Nan reported that the Others are drawn to the heat of life and red hot blood. If they can sense the warmth of the living, perhaps they see or feel the heat of flame?

Specifically, Gilly says the Others are drawn to the 'stink of life' and it's Small Paul who shows up:

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Samwell III

Then, by the door, one of the shadows moved. A big one.

This is still a dream, Sam prayed. Oh, make it that I'm still asleep, make it a nightmare. He's dead, he's dead, I saw him die. "He's come for the babe," Gilly wept. "He smells him. A babe fresh-born stinks o' life. He's come for the life."

The huge dark shape stooped under the lintel, into the hall, and shambled toward them. In the dim light of the fire, the shadow became Small Paul.

 

Gilly makes no distinction between the wights and Craster's boys.  Or at least she makes no distinction between what attracts them.   I've wondered who Small Paul was actually tracking... the stink of life or Samwell (and the small horn).  

I'm also reminded that the Faceless Men value a newborn over all other 'sacrifices' as well.

Edited by LynnS

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Jon and Rob are close to the same age.  If you look at teenagers, they could look close to the same age and be years apart.  But Rob was conceived before Robert's rebellion, we know that date precisely, as did his mom.  Catelyn believes Jon to be younger, believing Ned cheated on her at war.  Rob was about a year and a half when Ned brought home Jon, who had to pass as younger than a year and a half.  I don't think a 2 year old would, certainly not a kid much older, but Jon could be older by a month or younger by a year. 

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IMO GRRM gave us the line about bastards growing up faster to understand that Jon was conceived before Robb - yet not too much earlier else the age difference would be too obvious. 

Edited to add: there's also the confirmation that Ned left the fisherman's daughter with a bastard in her belly. Either the "daughter" had a noticeable baby bump, or the two exhibited a closeness that made people think they were sleeping together.

Edited by Feather Crystal

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21 hours ago, alienarea said:

IIRC, there's also an SSM that says she wasn't bound to one place during Robert's Rebellion.

Certainly.  But what we're interested in is where she was when she had her baby (if any).

All rumors pertaining to Ashara (whether Selmy's or the rumor about her being Jon's mother) having a baby point to her having it at the end of the Rebellion.

We know from Ned that she was at Starfall at the end of the Rebellion (because he found her there when he returned Dawn).

It follows that those at Starfall are much more likely to know whether she had any baby, and according to Ned Dayne, who grew up at Starfall, they claim no such thing.

14 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

According to Harwin, the rumor going around Winterfell was that Eddard and Ashara’s relationship took place around the time of the Harrenhal tourney

That's true; such a rumor did start then.  And that rumor turns up at Starfall as well. But it does not include a baby.

14 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

And Harrenhal couldn’t have been two years before the rebellion

That isn't what I said.  Harrenhal took place about two years before Ned returned Dawn to Starfall... which was well after the Rebellion ended.  And the Rebellion took about a year.

Think about that for a second.  If you believe Selmy:

Quote

Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well.

Then according to Selmy, the sequence was apparently this:

1. Someone dishonored Ashara at Harrenhal

2. Many months go by after Harrenhal before Rebellion begins (according to the World book, Rhaegar is on his dubious long road trip, which is right in the middle of a horribly bad winter...)

3. Following Brandon and Rickard being killed, and Aerys summoning Ned and Robert, the Rebellion then begins and takes about a year

4. After the war, Ned finds Ashara at Starfall, where (per Selmy) she has just had a baby and she is mad with grief because it was stillborn and because the man who dishonored her has just died

This simply does not work at all. 

Based on a nine-month gestation, we can immediately see that a baby conceived at Harrenhal would likely have been born around the time the Rebellion began.  So if Ashara killed herself soon after, she would be dead at that time. 

Yet Ashara lived for the entire year after that and did not kill herself.

And Ashara could hardly be "mad with grief" over the man who dishonored her at Harrenhal if he were Ned, because Ned isn't dead.   Nor could she be "mad with grief" over Brandon, because Brandon died more than a year before.

So we know that Selmy is either very badly confused -- or else his thoughts do not mean what they appear to mean at all. 

For instance, it may be that the "man who dishonored her" is not the same as the "Stark she looked to."  And neither one of them impregnated her at Harrenhal.

Edited by JNR

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1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

Jon and Rob are close to the same age.  If you look at teenagers, they could look close to the same age and be years apart.  But Rob was conceived before Robert's rebellion, we know that date precisely, as did his mom.  Catelyn believes Jon to be younger, believing Ned cheated on her at war.  Rob was about a year and a half when Ned brought home Jon, who had to pass as younger than a year and a half.  I don't think a 2 year old would, certainly not a kid much older, but Jon could be older by a month or younger by a year. 

1

That isn't entirely accurate...Cat in that one internal monologue is relaying a lot of info many she didn't know first hand. Again context is everything

Quote

"Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man’s needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father’s castle at Riverrun. Her thoughts were more of Robb, the infant at her breast, than of the husband she scarcely knew. He was welcome to whatever solace he might find between battles. And if his seed quickened, she expected he would see to the child's needs.

1. During her first year of marriage, she found out.Not that he had, she only found out during the first year Ned got some girl pregnant chance met on campaign. The qualifier of it being on campaign changes somethings. There are no rumors of Ned having a child before the rebellion. Even though in reality he could have gotten a woman pregnant and no one knew about it. The point is there has been no talk of Ned with a child before the rebellion. All of a sudden there's talk of Ned having a child. Based on that, the obvious conclusion to be drawn by Cat based on the info she got at the time and when she got the info . The only thing she could think of is what she thought. Ned had a child "on campaign." 

 

 It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face. That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. "Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know.

Given the bastards grow faster explanation created by Luuwin; I'm thinking Cat after getting a glimpse or two of Jon thought something was a bit fishy. The info she got about Ned fathering a child during the campaign may have been wrong because clearly, this child is farther along in age than she thought.

What is also interesting is Ned's statement: Don't ask about Jon. This adds to what I've said Ned has never volunteered info about Jon and if any question was brought up about Jon. He got angry, dismissive, or he never answered at all. Except in the case when Arya told him about the two wizards in the dungeon. That is the only moment he freaked out.

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2 hours ago, LynnS said:

Specifically, Gilly says the Others are drawn to the 'stink of life' and it's Small Paul who shows up:

Gilly makes no distinction between the wights and Craster's boys.  Or at least she makes no distinction between what attracts them.   I've wondered who Small Paul was actually tracking... the stink of life or Samwell (and the small horn).  

I'm also reminded that the Faceless Men value a newborn over all other 'sacrifices' as well.

My thing with some of old Nan's stories are somethings she could never know. Unless she spoke to an "other" she can't know what they are attracted to.you are correct in that Gilly makes no distinction between a WW and a wight. They all seem to be "others" to these characters, but it is an interesting train of thought on what Small Paul could have been tracking. I doubt it was just the "stink o life" though scarce life could always be found beyond the Wall. However, the horn? Now that's a nice thought.

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3 minutes ago, wolfmaid7 said:

My thing with some of old Nan's stories are somethings she could never know. Unless she spoke to an "other" she can't know what they are attracted to.you are correct in that Gilly makes no distinction between a WW and a wight. They all seem to be "others" to these characters, but it is an interesting train of thought on what Small Paul could have been tracking. I doubt it was just the "stink o life" though scarce life could always be found beyond the Wall. However, the horn? Now that's a nice thought.

Small Paul was not the only being tracking Sam; Coldhands arrived just in time to save a trustworthy black brother to help Bran cross the Black Gate. Low probability event or setup?

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5 hours ago, JNR said:

That's true; such a rumor did start then.  And that rumor turns up at Starfall as well. But it does not include a baby.

I'm not sure how you can separate these rumors coming out of Winterfell.  If there is whispering that Jon's mother is Ashara and there is whispering that Ned and Ashara's dalliance happened around the time of the tourney, but had ended before Ned was betrothed to Cat, then it seems fairly clear that the scuttlebutt for at least some in Winterfell is that Eddard knocked Ashara up at the Harrenhal tourney or fairly soon thereafter.  Now it seems evident that in Starfall, everyone is told that while Ned had a relationship with Ashara, his child was with Wylla, but there seems to be no time frame as to when Ned's relationship with Wylla would have occurred.

5 hours ago, JNR said:

Then according to Selmy, the sequence was apparently this:

1. Someone dishonored Ashara at Harrenhal

2. Many months go by after Harrenhal before Rebellion begins (according to the World book, Rhaegar is on his dubious long road trip, which is right in the middle of a horribly bad winter...)

3. Following Brandon and Rickard being killed, and Aerys summoning Ned and Robert, the Rebellion then begins and takes about a year

4. After the war, Ned finds Ashara at Starfall, where (per Selmy) she has just had a baby and she is mad with grief because it was stillborn and because the man who dishonored her has just died

It kind of depends on what Selmy means by "soon after".  Does he mean the next day, the next week, or could he mean that she never recovered from her grief about losing her child and she killed herself within the year of the child's death?  It seems a vague enough notion to cover all of these possibilities. 

ETA: and it also occurs to me that we have no reason to believe that Selmy would have any detailed knowledge of when Ashara kills herself.  After all, he's not privy to Eddard and company's trip to the toj and then to Starfall.  My guess is that sometime after Robert wins his throne, while Selmy is convalescing, he receives word that Ashara killed herself.  So it might be left to Selmy's imagination, when exactly this occurred. 

As for the man who dishonored her, once again we don't know who Selmy is referring to (other than it is most probably a Stark).  It could very well mean that her grief is over losing the man, whether by his death (Brandon) or simply by a termination of the relationship (Eddard due to his betrothal and marriage to Catelyn).  Based on all the other rumors being bandied about, my assumption is that Selmy is referring to Eddard.

But the implication of Selmy's thoughts seem pretty clear, Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal, which usually would mean, that she became pregnant, otherwise how would Selmy be so sure that she was "dishonored"?  And at least for everyone's benefit, it is believed that the child was born stillborn either during the rebellion or immediately prior to the rebellion. 

Regardless, of how this is interpreted, it doesn't change the fact that everyone believes that Ashara was pregnant at some point during these events, which qualifies her to serve as a wet nurse around the time of the toj.

Edited by Frey family reunion

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3 hours ago, Tucu said:

Small Paul was not the only being tracking Sam; Coldhands arrived just in time to save a trustworthy black brother to help Bran cross the Black Gate. Low probability event or setup?

Oh yeahhhh.I forgot CHs showing up in time to "save the day" Sam might have been unwilling to go off with him had they not be in danger and had CHs not given assistance from the get. 

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It seems plausible Ned and Ashara hooked up after the tournament at Harrenhal and may have even planned marriage. But Ashara didn't get pregnant then. Assuming Ned felt honor bound to Catelyn, and Ashara sympathized, it fits with everything we know and explains how Houses Dayne and Stark were close. 

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5 hours ago, JNR said:

We know from Ned that she was at Starfall at the end of the Rebellion (because he found her there when he returned Dawn).

Actually, we don't know this from Ned.  In his POV, to the best of my knowledge, we are never made privy to his thoughts on Ashara or his trip to Starfall.  Everything we know about Eddard returning Dawn to Starfall comes from Eddard's soldiers, and the source of their information is unclear.

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for the man who dishonored her, once again we don't know who Selmy is referring to (other than it is most probably a Stark).  It could very well mean that her grief is over losing the man, whether by his death (Brandon) or simply by a termination of the relationship (Eddard due to his betrothal and marriage to Catelyn). 

My exact thought as well; grief over the man that had 'dishonored' her at Harrenhal could just as easily mean grief over the way things had played out with Eddard, including both his betrothal to Catelyn, and his role in slaying Arthur.

That said, as much as I want to be an Eddard+Ashara advocate, my suspicion is that Ashara's final days (and her disappearance) have more to do with Rhaegar than with Eddard--if Young Griff is who he is proclaimed to be (though I personally lean toward him being false), then Ashara is a prime candidate to have aided in the swap, and there's plenty of crackpot potential in Rhaegar's proclamation that "there must be one more" in the HotU vision, as well as Dany's house with the red door. Whatever the case, the SSM about Ashara suggests she was not idle during the Rebellion.

Edited by Matthew.

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16 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

My exact thought as well; grief over the man that had 'dishonored' her at Harrenhal could just as easily mean grief over the way things had played out with Eddard, including both his betrothal to Catelyn, and his role in slaying Arthur.

That said, as much as I want to be an Eddard+Ashara advocate, my suspicion is that Ashara's final days (and her disappearance) have more to do with Rhaegar than with Eddard--if Young Griff is who he is proclaimed to be, then Ashara is a prime candidate to have aided in the swap, and there's plenty of crackpot potential in Rhaegar's proclamation that "there must be one more" (head), as well as Dany's house with the red door. Whatever the case, the SSM about Ashara suggests she was not idle during the Rebellion.

I have doubts that Eddard did conceive a child with Ashara.  But I do think that Ashara became pregnant at Harrenhal.  Some other poster many years back brought up a pretty good observation.  The Knight of the Laughing Tree story as first told by Howland to his children, fixates on Ashara and who she dances with at the tourney.  Which means, that Howland fixated on Ashara and who she was dancing with at the tourney.  So Eddard and Barristan may not have been the only persons smitten with Ashara.  It was paralleled to Lysa telling Sansa that she counted the number of times that Cat danced with Littlefinger at Riverrun. 

Now of course that doesn't necessarily mean that Ashara would have returned Howland's attentions, but it is an interesting possibility. 

Edited by Frey family reunion

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1 hour ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Oh yeahhhh.I forgot CHs showing up in time to "save the day" Sam might have been unwilling to go off with him had they not be in danger and had CHs not given assistance from the get. 

It's possible.  Coldhands needs someone to go through the Black Gate to retrieve Bran.  The horn, the dragonglass and Gilly's babe have to get t the other side as well.    

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16 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I have doubts that Eddard did conceive a child with Ashara.  But I do think that Ashara became pregnant at Harrenhal.  Some other poster many years back brought up a pretty good observation.  The Knight of the Laughing Tree story as first told by Howland to his children, fixates on Ashara and who she dances with at the tourney.  Which means, that Howland fixated on Ashara and who she was dancing with at the tourney.  So Eddard and Barristan may not have been the only persons smitten with Ashara.  It was paralleled to Lysa telling Sansa that she counted the number of times that Cat danced with Littlefinger at Riverrun. 

Now of course that doesn't necessarily mean that Ashara would have returned Howland's attentions, but it is an interesting possibility. 

This isn't evidence Ashara got pregnant at Harrenhal, just that Howland noticed Ashara.  If anything, the more people who find her attractive, the more potential for anyone to be the father. 

Ashara seems to have been pregnant once, close to her death and close enough to Jon's birth to think she's his mother.  Harrenhal was years too early.  We have no evidence she was pregnant a second time. 

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8 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

This isn't evidence Ashara got pregnant at Harrenhal, just that Howland noticed Ashara.  If anything, the more people who find her attractive, the more potential for anyone to be the father. 

Ashara seems to have been pregnant once, close to her death and close enough to Jon's birth to think she's his mother.  Harrenhal was years too early.  We have no evidence she was pregnant a second time. 

I don’t want to keep going round and round on this, but “dishonored” = pregnant,  especially when its followed up with info that her baby is stillborn.  You may take issue with Barristan saying she killed herself “soon after” the death of her baby, and perhaps Barristan is confused about the events (it wouldn’t be the first time) but that’s clearly his impression of what happened.  

In so much that we have to rely on the memory of unreliable narrators regarding all past events in the story, there is “evidence” that Ashara got pregnant at Harrenhal.  Now you may choose to disbelieve said “evidence” but it appears to me that we have to at least consider the possibility that Ashara was impregnated at the time of Harrenhal.

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20 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

If there is whispering that Jon's mother is Ashara and there is whispering that Ned and Ashara's dalliance happened around the time of the tourney, but had ended before Ned was betrothed to Cat, then it seems fairly clear that the scuttlebutt for at least some in Winterfell is that Eddard knocked Ashara up at the Harrenhal tourney or fairly soon thereafter. 

This requires all of them to be flatly ignorant of the timeline.  They might be, I suppose, but we certainly know better.

For instance, we know factually that Jaime was 15 when he joined the KG at Harrenhal:

Quote

"Why did you take the oath?" she demanded. "Why don the white cloak if you meant to betray all it stood for?"

Why? What could he say that she might possibly understand? "I was a boy. Fifteen. It was a great honor for one so young."

But Jaime was 17 when he killed Aerys in the Sack:

Quote

"You think I should mistrust Lannister because he sat on my throne for a few moments?" He shook with laughter again. "Jaime was all of seventeen, Ned. Scarce more than a boy."

This tells us roughly two years went by between these two events.  

And more months than that would have gone by as Ned rode ~1200 miles to Storm's End and then to Starfall to return Dawn.

If you don't like the canon, you can wander over into the World book (not a thing I would normally recommend) which states quite plainly that Harrenhal happened in 281, and the war ended at some unknown point in 283.  Once again, we see roughly two years went by.

It's a popular illusion that Harrenhal was immediately followed by the Rebellion, but an illusion is all it's ever been.  There was a gap of months, and odds are, quite a few months.

But even if these two events weren't separated by months, it would still be impossible for Ashara to conceive a child at Harrenhal and bear that child near, or after, the end of Rebellion. 

Because the Rebellion was close to a year long:

Quote

The war had raged for close to a year. Lords great and small had flocked to Robert's banners; others had remained loyal to Targaryen.

Harrenhal simply did not happen three months after the war began; it's a kooky idea.

Now, if the idea is that Ned knocked up Ashara, that is possible.. for instance, she may have attended Ned's wedding, which appears to have been about 3-4 months into the Rebellion.   We can't rule it out.

 What we can rule out is that any child conceived at Harrenhal is either Jon or the child Selmy has in mind (that was born shortly before Ashara disappeared/killed herself).  The timeline flat-out dismisses it as an option, unless we think a woman somehow managed gestation period of roughly two years.

Edited by JNR

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3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don’t want to keep going round and round on this, but “dishonored” = pregnant,  especially when its followed up with info that her baby is stillborn.  You may take issue with Barristan saying she killed herself “soon after” the death of her baby, and perhaps Barristan is confused about the events (it wouldn’t be the first time) but that’s clearly his impression of what happened.  

In so much that we have to rely on the memory of unreliable narrators regarding all past events in the story, there is “evidence” that Ashara got pregnant at Harrenhal.  Now you may choose to disbelieve said “evidence” but it appears to me that we have to at least consider the possibility that Ashara was impregnated at the time of Harrenhal.

I assumed dishonored=lost virginity 

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