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2018 Quarter-finals


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Head to head: Uruguay vs France

The two nations have met six times before, with France yet to win. Uruguay have won twice, with four draws shared.

Head to head: Brazil vs Belgium

Brazil 2 : 0 Belgium (WC 17-06-2002) (Have met once)

Head to head: Sweden vs England
Sweden have won 2, England have won 2, 2 draws (Last 6 matches)

Head to head: Russia vs Croatia

(Last 3 matches) Croatia have won 1,other two draws.

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I feel like these are four very open matches. All the teams stand a decent chance of progressing, but if pressed, I'd give the nod to France, Brazil, Sweden and Croatia. 

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Uruguay v France:

I think France could really struggle against Uruguay. We've seen in the past how France struggle to break down a well organised defence and there is still a lack of cohesion in the side. Uruguay also has the best CB pairing in the tournament in Godin+Gimenez who also play together at club level at the heart of the meanest defence in Europe's top 5 leagues. Uruguay aren't going to give them an open game with gaping holes in behind like Argentina did - they will stay compact and look to break quickly like they did against Portugal. The only concern for Uruguay is the fitness of Cavani and Suarez. Cavani went off last game with a calf injury and it was reported a couple of days ago that Suarez picked up a knock in training. 

 

Brazil v Belgium:

Belgium are seriously vulnerable down the flanks. The lack of pace in their backline as well as no recognised LB is a problem regardless of what formation they use. Martinez needs to rethink their game strategy - playing on the counter with a back four (Vertonghen at LB) and a deeper defensive line thus minimising the space in behind might be the best way to go but I seriously doubt Martinez is going to change either formation or tactics. Casemiro's suspension is a blow for Brazil but they have a more than capable backup in Fernandinho. Brazil favourites in this one.

 

Sweden v England:

I think we can all predict how this game is going to play out. England will have at least two-thirds of the possession while Sweden sit deep and compact and look to counter. England will need to move the ball a whole lot quicker if they going to trouble this Swedish defence. Sweden's transition play has been good and as a result they've been able to counter very effectively. If they had better forwards than Toivonen and Berg, I'd have them as favourites for this one.

 

Russia v Croatia:

I think this one could be an open game as I doubt Russia are going to set up as defensively as they did against Spain - even the coach said that he had to work very hard to convince the players to play that way. Croatia should win but the host nation riding a wave of euphoria and momentum behind them are never easy to play against.

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I go with France, Brazil, England and Croatia to advance.

With regards to England, I somewhat miss the old days with Seaman or Robinson in the net and Southgate himself having to take a penalty in the shootout.

Russia is gonna be an unpleasent game for Croatia, as the host nation is being carried a bit now. But given the overall quality of the Russian squad, this is as far as they'll go.

 

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7 hours ago, Ancalagon El Pistolero said:

Head to head: Brazil vs Belgium

Brazil 2 : 0 Belgium (WC 17-06-2002) (Have met once)

We are still traumatized about that match... and still pissed at the referee. 

Time for revanche! :devil::devil::devil: ;)

Sweden vs England looks very boring. Columbia was dirty but they actually created al least some entertainment. 

Whole Belgium is kind of biased now against England. Mostly because of things like this. Why? 

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All of the QFs are potentially competitive.  

France and England will be challenged to get their uncoordinated attacks to improve enough to break down resilient defensive teams.  I doubt England will get much set piece success against Sweden (they were already struggling against Colombia).  Uruguay have a great defense, hard working MF and very talented attack, but absolutely no depth to replace any key absences.

Belgium look vulnerable to Brazil’s wide attackers.  If they stick with 3-5-2 then I think Neymar and Willian will have them on toast.  Can Martinez organize a defense for the first time in his career?  Belgium have enough attacking power to hit Brazil on the counter attack, but they need to get their shape right between defense and midfield and probably draft in another MF like Dembele.  Belgium could try to play for possession in MF against Brazil’s paucity of ball-winners (unless Firmino gets the nod).

Russia will have to decide if they are brave enough to go toe-to-toe with Croatia or try to sit deep again.  Croatia have smart possession players in midfield like Spain, but Perisic and Rebic are more direct than the Spanish forwards, and Mandzukic offers an aerial threat against a deep defense.  They may have more threat than Spain against the Russian back line.  I’d be much happier if Russia come out and play but they may opt for another risk averse game. 

Fatigue, injury and suspensions will become a factor now too.  Teams have varying rest periods before the next game, some had ET, some have thin squads. 

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It is dissapointing that the "right branch" has overall considerably weaker teams. Partly because Germany and Spain were gone so early, partly because of the oddities of the crossing over from the groups.

As I didn't see any of Croatia's matches of the group phase, I was rather disappointed by them, same goes for the rest [of that branch], even England. I really want anyone but Brazil to win (they already won two of the more mediocre and overall disappointing tournaments, '94 and '02) but if Belgium (unlikely, considering how they did against Japan) or France don't stop them, they will probably win as I cannot see anyone from the other branch beating them.

So my hope is that France comes through from the stronger branch and I don't really care who makes it from the other. I would hope for a team that has never won before to become champion but none of them has been very convincing so far, so I'd settle for France.

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11 hours ago, Iskaral Putsch said:

 If they stick with 3-5-2 then I think Neymar and Willian will have them on toast.  Can Martinez organize a defense for the first time in his career?  

They don't play 3-5-2 and their defensive record under Martinez is actually generally quite good. 

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Plus, Neymar & Willian have not been that good in the tournament so far. Neymar have spent more time rolling on the pitch than anyone, and Willian's sole decent performance was against Mexico. Douglas Costa would actually deserve to start instead of one of them.

Brazil's record in this WC is more down to their defensive solidity (T.Silva, Miranda, Fagner & Casemiro all being in top form) than anything else, IMHO. (oh, I almost forgot Coutinho, in spite of his average performance against Mexico)

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5 hours ago, La Albearceleste said:

They don't play 3-5-2 and their defensive record under Martinez is actually generally quite good. 

I'm not sure I'd describe conceding 21 goals in 24 games as quite good, especially given that record includes 4 clean sheets against Cyprus and Gibraltar.

In comparison Brazil have conceded 6 goals in their last 24 games.

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16 minutes ago, Eusebio da Silva ljkeane said:

I'm not sure I'd describe conceding 21 goals in 24 games as quite good, especially given that record includes 4 clean sheets against Cyprus and Gibraltar.

In comparison Brazil have conceded 6 goals in their last 24 games.

11 of those goals were in friendlies, though. In qualifying, Belgium conceded 6 goals in 10 games under Martinez, albeit against inferior opposition sometimes: but 3 of those were in one game against Bosnia (which they won). They've conceded 4 in 4 in this tournament, which is less good but the same as England and France. 

I think it depends what we mean by 'organising a defence', to some extent. International management plays to Martinez's strengths, in many ways. He doesn't have to teach his defenders to defend, because he can't: he hasn't time for that. His role is limited to giving them instructions - here's when you should press, you mark this player at set-pieces, play out from the back - and motivating them. 

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5 minutes ago, Disturber of Peace said:

Football gods are not known to behave like that.

England will lose in the quarter finals on penalties.

Nah, England is now invincible on penalties, at least until the Euros in 2 years.

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20 minutes ago, Corvinus of Teranga said:

Nah, England is now invincible on penalties, at least until the Euros in 2 years.

I think I saw a stat this week that every winner on penalties in the last several WCs went on to lose in the following round.  Obviously not true in the Euros, considering Portugal’s route to victory in 2016. 

But if true for the WC — and it felt wrong to me but maybe my memory was just stretching too far back — then it suggests that marginal winners get found out at the next, more difficult stage.  So it doesn’t matter that England have broken the penalties curse.  The fact that they needed penalties — successful or not — would mean they aren’t good enough to go any further.  We’ll see if the pattern holds on Friday-Saturday. 

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3 minutes ago, Iskaral Putsch said:

I think I saw a stat this week that every winner on penalties in the last several WCs went on to lose in the following round.  Obviously not true in the Euros, considering Portugal’s route to victory in 2016. 

But if true for the WC — and it felt wrong to me but maybe my memory was just stretching too far back — then it suggests that marginal winners get found out at the next, more difficult stage.  So it doesn’t matter that England have broken the penalties curse.  The fact that they needed penalties — successful or not — would mean they aren’t good enough to go any further.  We’ll see if the pattern holds on Friday-Saturday. 

OK, who then will win between Croatia and Russia?

Edit: Also, I said England is now invincible on penalties, not totally invincible, even though I'm still hoping for the Belgium-England final. ;)

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1 minute ago, Corvinus of Teranga said:

OK, who then will win between Croatia and Russia?

Yes, we’re guaranteed to get one exception to this “rule” on a technicality.  So only the England result can be used this time to test the “rule”. 

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