Alright, let's play this game: Edmure doesn't have the battle of the Fords

[Leonardo]

While he does a bit to make it seem convincing to Tywin, in the end his army crosses the Fords and Edmure closes them behind him, essentially giving Robb his ideal military situation. Tywin is both cut off from reinforcements and between two, albeit smaller armies. The Tyrells and their army may still(if they wanted to, would have) taken King's Landing before Stannis could... What are the most likely scenarios for you as a reader for what occurred next, as undoubtedly this action would have changed the entire course of the war? Robb would still have been betrayed given opportunity and his position weak enough, but it may have caused enough of a wrench in the gears to give rise to other occurrences....

[Kandrax]

Stannis would take King's Landing and Lannisters would go to flames.

No RW.

[Giant Ice Spider]

6 hours ago, Kandrax said:

Stannis would take King's Landing and Lannisters would go to flames.

No RW.

The Tyrell army was huge, make no mistake. They could still take out Stannis (especially since they had the element of surprise) with or without the westermen supporting them.

And would the Lannisters really go up in flames? Tommen was spirited away from KL, and Tywin was still alive and well. They would have been weaker, make no mistake, and the Freys and Boltons might not have joined them, but I doubt Tywin would just give up so easily.

[Angel Eyes]

Sansa would be dead meat since Cersei would never leave her alive.

[Kandrax]

9 hours ago, Giant Ice Spider said:

The Tyrell army was huge, make no mistake. They could still take out Stannis (especially since they had the element of surprise) with or without the westermen supporting them.

And would the Lannisters really go up in flames? Tommen was spirited away from KL, and Tywin was still alive and well. They would have been weaker, make no mistake, and the Freys and Boltons might not have joined them, but I doubt Tywin would just give up so easily.

By Lannisters i meant those in city.

[Daemon The Black Dragon]

The Reach army still takes Stannis army by surprise and wins the battle for the Lannisters. Robb still gets killed by the Freys. 

[Giant Ice Spider]

10 hours ago, Kandrax said:

By Lannisters i meant those in city.

I still think they'd be fine.

Like I said, the westermen aren't needed, so Stannis is still taken in the rear and defeated. However, this would make a HUGE political difference. Without Tywin in the city, we have the Cersei-Tyrell struggle to gain control of KL (and the king) that we saw in AFFC. And given that they would have almost the armed me in the city, they could simply have a coup and take power that way.

[hodorisfaclessman]

22 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Sansa would be dead meat since Cersei would never leave her alive.

Depends on how robbs planned ambush goes and when (prob before stannis siege ) 

A tywin defeat would prob stop any red wedding plans and if tywin is killed would instantly pit cersei vs tyrion for control of westerlands

[Charles Calthrop]

I think a Tywin defeat means TL is either captured or dead.  In either case, that severely weakens the Lannisters - possibly causing the Tyrells to re-evaluate their position.  This would happen after the Blackwater however, given raven time. I think Stannis retreats to Dragonstone; Tyrion retains power as HotK after the battle, since Tywin isn’t there to take up the post.

Assuming no Kevan in the picture (I’m assuming he was at TL’s) side, Randall Tarly takes on outsize importance as the Tyrell/Lannister alliance’s sole ‘general’, especially before Jamie returns to KL.  There’s no red wedding without Tywin to broker it and offer up assurances. They are internally divided. Tyrion offers the same seat on the council to Dorne that Tywin did.  Purple wedding doesn’t happen as there’s not the same antagonism/easy scape goat in Tyrion (since he still has power as HotK).  However there’s a Clear Bedding where Joff dies due to tears of lys.  Marg is pregnant - which concerns Cersei as she’s about to lose all power.  She starts the non-sense with the Sparrows, which Tyrion sees as dangerous.  Tyrion strikes a pact with Olenna to sideline Cersei/the Faith.  LF comes in to screw things up some more.

Basically the capital becomes a Tyrell/Lannister snakefight until Dany lands.  The Starks remain in the own disarray dealing with the ironborn, continued low-level insurgency from the Freys, karstarks, and Boltons until the Others start really entering the picture.

Basically this just makes the ‘mid-game’ more convoluted and political - extending GRRM’s writing timeline even further out.

Doesn’t change the big clash - Dragons and AA/PTWP vs. Others.

[Kandrax]

12 hours ago, Giant Ice Spider said:

I still think they'd be fine.

Like I said, the westermen aren't needed, so Stannis is still taken in the rear and defeated. However, this would make a HUGE political difference. Without Tywin in the city, we have the Cersei-Tyrell struggle to gain control of KL (and the king) that we saw in AFFC. And given that they would have almost the armed me in the city, they could simply have a coup and take power that way.

I don't think beign imprisoned is fine situation.

Now, in case of Tyrell-only army defeating Stannis, Robb's plan is now halfly succesfull. He managed to lure Tywin into trap, but Stannis failed to take KL, and it would take some time for second atempt, also Robb doesn't have enough force to attack city.

If Tywin is captured, Robb could force him to order his vassals to surrender. It would be interesting to see what would happen, if Robb appears before the gates saying: " Surrender city to me or i would execute your grandfather.

2 hours ago, Charles Calthrop said:

insurgency from the Freys,

I don't think they would rebel, if Robb doesn't do what he did.

[Charles Calthrop]

2 hours ago, Kandrax said:

 

I don't think they would rebel, if Robb doesn't do what he did.

I meant low level, passive-agressive shit, not a full on rebellion.  I doubt without Tywin’s support the Frey’s or Boltons have the guts to do anything overt on their own.

[Kandrax]

8 hours ago, Charles Calthrop said:

I meant low level, passive-agressive shit, not a full on rebellion.  I doubt without Tywin’s support the Frey’s or Boltons have the guts to do anything overt on their own.

If Robb leaves Westerlands after Tywin's death without taking Crag, then Frey wouldn't be against him.

[The Young Maester]

If Robb and the blackfish do manage to lead Tywin on a merry chase, and actually use that good spot Blackfish said in ASOS. Tywin would possibly have been ambushed on a battle, on his own lands. Whether they capture Tywin or not I'm unsure, but I think that would be their target to hit the column of Tywins army in which Tywin is located in. With Tywin captured, Kevan becomes the leader of the army and retreats to casterly rock.

I imagine by the time Tywin reached the westerlands he would hear of Stannis imminent attack on Kings landing, therefore Tywin would have told Mace to march on kings landing and hit Stannis by surprise. After kings landing is relieved there will be a struggle for power between Cersei and the Tyrells, because its bloody Cersei, and also because Tywin is busy being tormented by a wolf and watching his whole legacy wash away. Robb takes advantage of decapitating the Lannister leadership and marches on Moat Cailin to redeem his name of 'The King Who Lost the North' 

Oh and Roose stays loyal until Robb reaches Winterfell and sees all the dead Dreadfort men on his castle.

[Blackfish Tully]

On 7/6/2018 at 10:27 AM, Giant Ice Spider said:

The Tyrell army was huge, make no mistake. They could still take out Stannis (especially since they had the element of surprise) with or without the westermen supporting them.

And would the Lannisters really go up in flames? Tommen was spirited away from KL, and Tywin was still alive and well. They would have been weaker, make no mistake, and the Freys and Boltons might not have joined them, but I doubt Tywin would just give up so easily.

the big question with the Tyrells and Kings Landing is would they get there before or after Stannis takes the city . If they wait for Tywin and he never shows would that waiting delay them enough that they get to Kings Landing too late to stop Stannis from taking the city ? and if that's the case would they lay siege to the city or try to storm it or would they bend the knee to Stannis or just simply go home and see what happens?  I think a lot of this would rest on the fate of Tommen, if Stannis gets his hands on him then there is no reason for the Tyrells to join with Tywin as they would have nobody to marry Margaery since Joffrey would be a hostage of Stannis . 

[Hugorfonics]

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

the big question with the Tyrells and Kings Landing is would they get there before or after Stannis takes the city . If they wait for Tywin and he never shows would that waiting delay them enough that they get to Kings Landing too late to stop Stannis from taking the city ? and if that's the case would they lay siege to the city or try to storm it or would they bend the knee to Stannis or just simply go home and see what happens?  I think a lot of this would rest on the fate of Tommen, if Stannis gets his hands on him then there is no reason for the Tyrells to join with Tywin as they would have nobody to marry Margaery since Joffrey would be a hostage of Stannis . 

Theres no guarantee that Stannis would have taken KL, Tyrell or no. Stannis lost the battle pretty badly.

If Robb captured Tywin I dont see Walder betraying Robb, especially since there's no one to write letters with. Theres still that whole Greyjoy Ramsay thing though

[Chancho]

robb wasn't close to a joint attack at the moment and the Golden tooth was in the way of edmure still if tywin go west.

[The Young Maester]

2 hours ago, Chancho said:

robb wasn't close to a joint attack at the moment and the Golden tooth was in the way of edmure still if tywin go west.

Robb had more cavalry than Tywin, most of Tywins host was made up of foot soldiers as the blackfish said on ASOS. He didnt need Edmure to tie the Lions tail on his own lands. Robb would have tormented Tywin by using his superior cavalry to bleed his army, no doubt the Blackfish would want to take out the outriders, and if the outriders are taking heavy casualties, than its bye bye for Tywin because without a proper force of outriders for the westerlander army, Robb can pull something similar like Oxcross only difference is that Tywin would be on alert because he has already seen that Robb likes surprise attacks. 

[Bernie Mac]

6 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

Robb had more cavalry than Tywin,

No, he does not. 

Robb returns from the Westerlands with 3,500 cavaly. 

Thirty-five hundred they were, thirty-five hundred who had been blooded in the Whispering Wood, who had reddened their swords at the Battle of the Camps, at Oxcross, Ashemark, and the Crag, and all through the gold-rich hills of the Lannister west. Aside from her brother Edmure's modest retinue of friends, the lords of the Trident had remained to hold the riverlands while the king retook the north.

add in a few hundred Karstark cavalry that abandoned him after Rickard's arrest we are looking at Robb's casualties from the battle of the Whispering Woods, battle of the Camp, Oxcross and the campaign in the West to be around 20-25% of his host. 

Given that Robb has lost that many it stands to reason that the 1,000 Freys (minus the 60 who remained at Riverrun with Perwyn) would have suffered similar losses, so by the time Tywin was coming West Robb would have had around 4,500, if he had not lost the Freys by that point, which he may have given the tight timeline. 

Tywin's cavaly before the battle of the Fords was over 7,000, possibly more given we don't know how many were holding Harrenhal or fighting elsewhere while he was fighting the battle of the Green fork, or how many survivors he may have picked up form Jaime's host. 

And that does not even include any cavaly reinforcements he would pick up in his own lands, the various garrison's, the thousands at Lannissport or the Golden Tooth. 

6 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

 

most of Tywins host was made up of foot soldiers as the blackfish said on ASOS.

Sure, of his 20k host most of it, 13k, was foot, but he still had more cavalry. 

6 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

 

He didnt need Edmure to tie the Lions tail on his own lands. Robb would have tormented Tywin by using his superior cavalry to bleed his army,

come on, this is incredibly unlikely. No one would be claiming that Tywin, Stannis or any other commander, with the same odds in the North, Vale, Reach etc. would be the favorite in this situation. 

Robb was heavily outnumbered in a highly populated enemy territory with few clear exits and many enemy castles with garrisons. Even if we ignore the fact that he was very likely bedridden at the Crag when Tywin was fighting Edmure, the odds were simply against him. He could have won, but it would be the unlikely outcome. 

6 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

 

no doubt the Blackfish would want to take out the outriders, and if the outriders are taking heavy casualties, than its bye bye for Tywin because without a proper force of outriders for the westerlander army, Robb can pull something similar like Oxcross

the Oxcross was mostly green untrained boys who had no idea that Robb was even in the West or would be able to sneak in without them being alerted. 

There is no scenario were that happens again considering the huge differences in the hosts. 

 

Also Tywin getting captured by a host 1/5th the size seems crazy. Not only is Tywin in his homeland, with a larger cavalry, but he leads from the rear. Other commanders who lead from the rear show how unlikely this is.  Stannis in enemy territory against a much larger army was able to escape, Roose with a slightly smaller army was able to escape.

 

[Blackfish Tully]

On 7/27/2018 at 6:03 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Theres no guarantee that Stannis would have taken KL, Tyrell or no. Stannis lost the battle pretty badly.

I

Actually if i remember the battle correctly the defense of the city was falling apart when the Tyrells arrived and there seemed little doubt that Stannis would take the city .

[The Young Maester]

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, he does not. 

Robb returns from the Westerlands with 3,500 cavaly. 

Thirty-five hundred they were, thirty-five hundred who had been blooded in the Whispering Wood, who had reddened their swords at the Battle of the Camps, at Oxcross, Ashemark, and the Crag, and all through the gold-rich hills of the Lannister west. Aside from her brother Edmure's modest retinue of friends, the lords of the Trident had remained to hold the riverlands while the king retook the north.

add in a few hundred Karstark cavalry that abandoned him after Rickard's arrest we are looking at Robb's casualties from the battle of the Whispering Woods, battle of the Camp, Oxcross and the campaign in the West to be around 20-25% of his host. 

Given that Robb has lost that many it stands to reason that the 1,000 Freys (minus the 60 who remained at Riverrun with Perwyn) would have suffered similar losses, so by the time Tywin was coming West Robb would have had around 4,500, if he had not lost the Freys by that point, which he may have given the tight timeline. 

Tywin's cavaly before the battle of the Fords was over 7,000, possibly more given we don't know how many were holding Harrenhal or fighting elsewhere while he was fighting the battle of the Green fork, or how many survivors he may have picked up form Jaime's host. 

And that does not even include any cavaly reinforcements he would pick up in his own lands, the various garrison's, the thousands at Lannissport or the Golden Tooth. 

Sure, of his 20k host most of it, 13k, was foot, but he still had more cavalry. 

come on, this is incredibly unlikely. No one would be claiming that Tywin, Stannis or any other commander, with the same odds in the North, Vale, Reach etc. would be the favorite in this situation. 

Robb was heavily outnumbered in a highly populated enemy territory with few clear exits and many enemy castles with garrisons. Even if we ignore the fact that he was very likely bedridden at the Crag when Tywin was fighting Edmure, the odds were simply against him. He could have won, but it would be the unlikely outcome. 

the Oxcross was mostly green untrained boys who had no idea that Robb was even in the West or would be able to sneak in without them being alerted. 

There is no scenario were that happens again considering the huge differences in the hosts. 

 

Also Tywin getting captured by a host 1/5th the size seems crazy. Not only is Tywin in his homeland, with a larger cavalry, but he leads from the rear. Other commanders who lead from the rear show how unlikely this is.  Stannis in enemy territory against a much larger army was able to escape, Roose with a slightly smaller army was able to escape.

 

"We were all horsed," Ser Brynden said. "The Lannister host was mainly foot. We planned to run Lord Tywin a merry chase up and down the coast, then slip behind him to take up a strong defensive position athwart the gold road, at a place my scouts had found where the ground would have been greatly in our favour. If he had come at us there, he would have paid a grievous price. But if he did not attack, he would have been trapped in the west, a thousand leagues from where he needed to be. All the while we would have lived off his land, instead of him living off ours." "Lord Stannis was about to fall upon King's Landing," Robb said. "He might have rid us of Joffrey, the queen, and the Imp in one red stroke. Then we might have been able to make a peace."

I'll admit I was wrong with the cavalry numbers. But I still think Robb and the Blackfish could have had some major victory against Tywin. In ASOS the Blackfish was pretty confident that his and Robbs plan could have worked.

I'm just gonna assume the Blackfish is a better commander both strategically and tactically than Tywin. The Blackfish and Randyll Tarly are the best Generals in Westeros, in my opinion, but we still gotta give Tywin credit because his plan to wheel his army and put Roose Bolton's army against the river (even tho it never happened) was a masterpiece.

Having an army that is all mounted a horse gives you a superior advantage over the enemy. If this merry chase succeded I reckon Tywin would have attacked Robb's army on this ground the Blackfish was talking about, because let's be honest Tywin is a proud lord and his pride is his weaknesses, this merry chase would have wounded his pride even more because a band of Northmen are running around his country whilst he can't catch them, even tho he has thrice their numbers. I'm guessing Robb and the Blackfish were expecting Edmure to move his forces into the westerlands to help Robb with this battle. Because I don't know how they planned to defeat Tywin with their numbers in a pitched battle or maybe the ground the blackfish found was sort of favourable ground with little space for large numbers to swarm the Northmen. And yes Edmure can move his forces into the West by using the same passage as Robb.