Alright, let's play this game: Edmure doesn't have the battle of the Fords

[Blackfish Tully]

On 7/27/2018 at 2:55 AM, The Young Maester said:

If Robb and the blackfish do manage to lead Tywin on a merry chase, and actually use that good spot Blackfish said in ASOS. Tywin would possibly have been ambushed on a battle, on his own lands. Whether they capture Tywin or not I'm unsure, but I think that would be their target to hit the column of Tywins army in which Tywin is located in. With Tywin captured, Kevan becomes the leader of the army and retreats to casterly rock.

 

there was no chance that they would be able to capture Tywin . Tywin is to good of a leader to fall into a trap that badly and that idea was not anywhere in Blackfish's plans . They were simply looking to draw Tywin away from Kings Landing and try to keep him busy in the Westerlands . the book state that it is a 3 day ride from Casterly Rock to Oxcross so if you look at a map it looks to be about 2 weeks from the Fords to Oxcross and around 30 days from Oxcross to Kings Landing plus the amount of time Tywin has to chase Robb and Blackfish and defeat them in battle so at best it would take Tywin 2 months to find Robb and defeat him and then get back to Kings Landing so that's 2 months that he would be leaving Kings Landing vulnerable to Stannis . maybe the Tyrells still attack Stannis without Tywin but if they don't and Stannis takes the city Tywin would be in a very difficult situation .

[Hugorfonics]

17 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Actually if i remember the battle correctly the defense of the city was falling apart when the Tyrells arrived and there seemed little doubt that Stannis would take the city .

The citys defense was crumbling but so was Stannis' attack. He was on the other side of the bay with no "boats-bridge", all the gates to KL remained closed and the red keep didnt have a scratch. 

Tyrion, Joffrey, Lancel, Sandor etc were no longer part of the battle, but Bronn and Balon Swann were still in the field, along with all the other soldiers who were knighted. Also Tyrions mountain men were still in the vicinity.

Tyrion defeated Stannis, but its hard to declare yourself savior of the city when your unconscious (and the twisted monkey gargoyles strategy isnt as good of a story as Renlys ghost)

[Arthur Peres]

Driving Tywin away from the Riverlands would be great for Robb.

Edmure and Roose army would be able to link, they could take Harenhall when Tywin is away and free the captured held there.

 With Tywin in the Westerlands, King's Landing becomes exposed. Stannis could take it, or Roose and Edmure could do it in theory.

Mace waited for Tywin before rushing to battle with Stannis, if he waits Tywin the city will fall, if he goes ahead without the Lannister he gets there earlier and the element of surprise could be lost.

There is also the chance of Tywin suffer a defeat and make Mace reconsider if he will jump on a sinking ship.

[Lord Lannister]

I like this topic. I always thought Edmure got a bum deal for taking the blame for the Battle of the Fords. Had Robb actually taken the time to inform Edmure of his plans rather than just giving a vague order and not expect his commanders to react to altering situations. 

This would put Tywin in a tricky situation to be certain. I don't believe for a second it would result in his capture or destruction though. At best it's just going to keep him from getting to King's Landing in time to make a difference. Tywin's best option may end up being retreating to the Westerlands. Lest we forget Robb was personally injured at the Crag and was literally licking his wounds at the time. Robb would seem to not be immediately in a position to cut off Tywin from retreating back across the Red Fork and if Edmure did, he'd be leaving Riverrun open. 

It's hard to say what would happen at King's Landing. I think Stannis would have forced the city without the intervention of the reinforcements, though his whole force may have been pretty much combat ineffective by the time he did so. Oh sure, Mace may well march on King's Landing with the Tyrell host, but let's face it. Mace Tyrell isn't aggressive and has a history of not committing his forces to any great bloodletting. He'd slowly approach King's Landing and if he finds it's fallen to Stannis he'd take his time encircling it to set up for a long siege. I'm sure Stannis would just love being besieged by Mace once again. 

 

[dmfn]

Edmure's scolding after the battle of the ford served as the perfect distraction for us readers not to recognize him as Azhor Ahai, and possibly the third head of the dragon.

[Bernie Mac]

On 7/29/2018 at 1:08 AM, The Young Maester said:

I'll admit I was wrong with the cavalry numbers. But I still think Robb and the Blackfish could have had some major victory against Tywin. In ASOS the Blackfish was pretty confident that his and Robbs plan could have worked.

 

okay, just a few points. 

1. The Blackfish's plan is vague and he has a few 'if's' in a pretty short plan. That does not inspire confidence, it means he is counting on hope, never a good sign. 
2. Can you point out when the Blackfish does not sound confident? Even when he is pinned down in Riverrrun surrounded by thousands of enemies he has to appear confident in his plan. Commanders who don't have faith in their own plans, when thousand of lives are on the line, are poor leaders who spread doubt to the men below them. 
3. It is pretty hard to chastasize his nephew and blame him for Stannis' loss on the Blackwater if his plan was flawed. Notice how he ignores the Tyrells or the simple idea that Tywin could have turned around at any time once he got word that Stannis was heading for Kings Landing. It could be argued that making Edmure fell guilty about the loss would encourage him to take one for the team and marry a Frey, thus fixing the alliance. 

 

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I'm just gonna assume the Blackfish is a better commander both strategically and tactically than Tywin.

That in itself is hugely debatable,  Tywin is far more experienced in command, has far more victories under his belt and his reputation seems to be higher.  But even if the Blackfish is better we are not talking about significant margins here. 

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The Blackfish and Randyll Tarly are the best Generals in Westeros, in my opinion,

Tarly is an exceptional soldier, we've not seen much of him as a general under his own authority. 

Though I have to point out, being a better general is only going to count when you are against a similar sized force with a similar quality of troops. Being a better general is not going to count for much when

• you are in enemy territory where  Tywin and his scouts are going to know the land better
• you are outnumbered almost 5/1 (possibly more)
• you have far fewer cavalry
• you need to live off the land and build camps every night
• all the Westerland garrisons and reserves (there are still a few thousand soldiers at Lanniport) are available to Tywin as is food and shelter when needed

Tywin has too many advantages, numbers, territory and quality of soldiers are all firmly in his favor. The odds are firmly in his favor to win even if the Blackfish is a better manager. For a sports analogy you can put the greatest manager in football/soccer in charge of the Faroe Islands, they are still not going to win the World Cup. No one is going to be bettering on the Faroe Islands to beat France. 

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but we still gotta give Tywin credit because his plan to wheel his army and put Roose Bolton's army against the river (even tho it never happened) was a masterpiece.

You are severely downplaying Tywin's military history here. 

• Fought in the Nine Penny Wars as a teenager, performed with so much distinction that he was given the honour of knighting the heir of the Throne
• while still a teenager he soundly beat two of the strongest Houses in the Westerlands, one house being led by Lord Reyne one of the finest soldiers in the land
• while the Sack of Kings Landing was a dishonorable move, military wise it was astounding; not only did he manage to beat the rebels to the capital but he was able to secure a city with thousands of loyalist soldiers in a matter of hours. Logistical miracle worker
• was one of the commanders in the Greyjoy rebellion, helping to secure the ironborn islands
• it took him around a fortnight to secure the Riverlands, with only a few settlements not under his control. only saved by the intervention of another realm.  If any of his ancestors were this effective then there would be no such realm as the Riverlands
• victorious in the decisive battle in the war of the five kings

 

Tywin is a great and feared general, the best way to show this is that the most competent fighting force in the world of GRRM are swayed to  to invade Westeros when they hear that Tywin is no longer around

Strickland shook his head stubbornly. "The risk—"

"—is not what it was, now that Tywin Lannister is dead. The Seven Kingdoms will never be more ripe for conquest.

 

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Having an army that is all mounted a horse gives you a superior advantage over the enemy. If this merry chase succeded I reckon Tywin would have attacked Robb's army on this ground the Blackfish was talking about, because let's be honest Tywin is a proud lord and his pride is his weaknesses, this merry chase would have wounded his pride even more because a band of Northmen are running around his country whilst he can't catch them, even tho he has thrice their numbers.

 

He has more cavarly, he can split his force into two and his cavarly still heavily outnumbers Robb's host. And that is not even counting the reinforcements that he could pick up in his homeland. It also goes without saying that he has the use of ravens in his homeland, Robb on the move does not, Tywin can organize diversions and blockades from the nearby garrisons on the route Tywin is taking.  

Plus the Blackfish's plan, he has no idea on the Lannisters knowledge on the land in their own territory. While undoubtedly there will be some blindspots for Tywin and his men in their own land the Blackfish would have to be a telepath to know what they were. It is a huge gamble. 

Also the timeline suggests that Robb was possibly injured at the Crag when Tywin was heading West, leading a merry chance might not even be an option.

 

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I'm guessing Robb and the Blackfish were expecting Edmure to move his forces into the westerlands to help Robb with this battle.

How? 

Robb does not control the Golden Tooth, Forely Prester and his garrison does. Robb snuck in through a secret path his direwolf found, Edmure has no direwolf he shares a telepathic bond with. 

 

 

[cpg2016]

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

okay, just a few points. 

1. The Blackfish's plan is vague and he has a few 'if's' in a pretty short plan. That does not inspire confidence, it means he is counting on hope, never a good sign. 
2. Can you point out when the Blackfish does not sound confident? Even when he is pinned down in Riverrrun surrounded by thousands of enemies he has to appear confident in his plan. Commanders who don't have faith in their own plans, when thousand of lives are on the line, are poor leaders who spread doubt to the men below them. 
3. It is pretty hard to chastasize his nephew and blame him for Stannis' loss on the Blackwater if his plan was flawed. Notice how he ignores the Tyrells or the simple idea that Tywin could have turned around at any time once he got word that Stannis was heading for Kings Landing. It could be argued that making Edmure fell guilty about the loss would encourage him to take one for the team and marry a Frey, thus fixing the alliance. 

Which plan has a bunch of ifs?  Robb's force is far more mobile than Tywin's, and Robb and the Blackfish have fought Tywin off his feet for several straight months now.  Edmure is 100% responsible for Stannis' defeat; Brynden makes it perfectly clear that luring Tywin west was the plan.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

That in itself is hugely debatable,  Tywin is far more experienced in command, has far more victories under his belt and his reputation seems to be higher.  But even if the Blackfish is better we are not talking about significant margins here. 

Agreed.  What is certain is that Robb's army is far more competently led than Tywin's.  Robb is a better tactician and strategist than Tywin, and the Blackfish seems fairly superior to most of the subordinate commanders Tywin has.  Which makes a lot of sense; Tywin is competent but explicitly rules through fear.  It's not hard to see that his subordinates will be compliant with his orders but unwilling to take initiative for which they might be punished.  Robb rules through a much more inclusive form of decision making, and thus his commanders tend to fight more effectively on their own (at least, when not in the process of actively betraying him a la Roose Bolton).

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Though I have to point out, being a better general is only going to count when you are against a similar sized force with a similar quality of troops. Being a better general is not going to count for much when

Lets dissect the points below:

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

you are in enemy territory where  Tywin and his scouts are going to know the land better

Sure

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

you are outnumbered almost 5/1 (possibly more)

Which doesn't matter, at all, if your enemy can't catch you.  Robb's cavalry is exceptionally well trained, well disciplined, and experienced - otherwise they wouldn't have won the Battle of the Camps so convincingly.  Even if Robb doesn't have a larger amount of cavalry than Tywin (and he probably does), it's a significantly better force.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

you have far fewer cavalry

We have no evidence of this and lots of circumstantial evidence to suggest otherwise.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

you need to live off the land and build camps every night

Uh, so does Tywin?  Robb has been sacking and burning his way through the Westerlands long before the Battle of the Fords, it's actually far more likely that he's as well or better supplied than Tywin is.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

all the Westerland garrisons and reserves (there are still a few thousand soldiers at Lanniport) are available to Tywin as is food and shelter when needed

There aren't.  At Oxcross, Robb defeats a force of green levies and some survivors of the Battle of the Camps.  There aren't any more military forces worth the name left in the Westerlands that aren't absolutely required to garrison the remaining castles.

Besides which, Tywin cannot play a waiting game.  The whole reason he has to abandon the entire strategic effort of the war and come home is because allowing Robb free reign will cause his army to desert as nobles leave to defend their lands.

History is replete with examples of better led, better trained, and more mobile forces just ravaging enemy territory for long periods of time.  Take Hannibal; he absolutely wiped out several Roman armies, spent years pillaging in Italy, and was never caught, despite being on "Roman" territory, with all the advantages you claim it confers.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

You are severely downplaying Tywin's military history here. 

• Fought in the Nine Penny Wars as a teenager, performed with so much distinction that he was given the honour of knighting the heir of the Throne
• while still a teenager he soundly beat two of the strongest Houses in the Westerlands, one house being led by Lord Reyne one of the finest soldiers in the land
• while the Sack of Kings Landing was a dishonorable move, military wise it was astounding; not only did he manage to beat the rebels to the capital but he was able to secure a city with thousands of loyalist soldiers in a matter of hours. Logistical miracle worker
• was one of the commanders in the Greyjoy rebellion, helping to secure the ironborn islands
• it took him around a fortnight to secure the Riverlands, with only a few settlements not under his control. only saved by the intervention of another realm.  If any of his ancestors were this effective then there would be no such realm as the Riverlands
• victorious in the decisive battle in the war of the five kings

Point by point:

- We have no evidence that he performed with that much distinction; he was Aerys' friend, that was the only given reason for why he knighted Aerys.

- He launched a surprise attack, an extremely illegal one no less, on an unsuspecting House and burned it to the ground.  This is like saying a mugger who jumped out of the shadows and knifed Bruce Lee is a better fighter.

- Aerys II let Tywin in!  How is this astounding?  It's the opposite, actually; Tywin had no control over his troops and they sacked the capital.  He let his men run rampant and rape and pillage at will, to the extent that two of his subordinates rape and brutally murder a bunch of valuable kids in a way he actively disapproves of.  This isn't a miracle of logistics, it's a feudal army running wild, on par with Charles V's Sack of Rome (on which I don't doubt it's partially modeled).

- Sure, he was a commander.  The notable victories are not his, though, but Stannis'

- Again, launching a surprise chevauchee is not the sign of a military genius, but a ruthless general who will break all the laws and customs of war.

- Tywin wasn't commanding in the "decisive battle of the war".  Garlan Tyrell leads the charge, and Randyll Tarly and Mace Tyrell command the center and the left flank.  That speaks to an army commanded far more by the Reachermen than Tywin.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Tywin is a great and feared general, the best way to show this is that the most competent fighting force in the world of GRRM are swayed to  to invade Westeros when they hear that Tywin is no longer around

The Golden Company is worried about the political acumen of Tywin Lannister, not his military might.  He's known to be decisive and have a strong force of personality.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

He has more cavarly, he can split his force into two and his cavarly still heavily outnumbers Robb's host. And that is not even counting the reinforcements that he could pick up in his homeland.

Please show us where we see that Tywin has more cavalry?  Every indication is that he shouldn't.  Robb's cavalry has taken effectively no losses in the war, whereas Tywin's has, multiple times (certainly at the Camps, probably at Oxcross, and probably at the Green Fork).  The Westerlands in general aren't a region that should support huge numbers of cavalry; it's a hilly and rugged area, not suited to breeding horses.  And as I said, there are 100% no more reinforcements, especially not mounted reinforcements, waiting for him.  At best he's picking up the kinds of men we see in Dunk & Egg; peasants with sharpened sticks, basically.

 

13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Plus the Blackfish's plan, he has no idea on the Lannisters knowledge on the land in their own territory. While undoubtedly there will be some blindspots for Tywin and his men in their own land the Blackfish would have to be a telepath to know what they were. It is a huge gamble. 

He doesn't need better knowledge, and the one thing we hear is that the Blackfish is a scout and outride par excellance.  With good scouting, there is no reason Robb's army won't have exactly as good of a grasp on the geographic situation as Tywin.  Even if we assume Tywin has comparable numbers of mounted troops, he still has to leave all his foot behind.  And even if he chooses to do that, he still has to attack Robb!  In other words, the ground doesn't matter, because Robb always, every time, gets to pick where to fight.  Which means, there will almost certainly never be a pitched battle that Tywin can win.  The number of times ancient and medieval armies experienced any success in fighting into a defensive position on ground picked by the enemy is minuscule compared to when it ends in failure.

[Angel Eyes]

So why wasn't Edmure told of the plan? And why does everybody treat him like a kid, his uncle, his sister, heck, even his nephew? If he's given a plan, he'd gladly fill his part in it.

[Blackfish Tully]

34 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

So why wasn't Edmure told of the plan? And why does everybody treat him like a kid, his uncle, his sister, heck, even his nephew? If he's given a plan, he'd gladly fill his part in it.

I don't think that anybody purposely left Edmure out of the planning . The original plan was that Robb would take an army into the Westerlands and try to destroy Stafford's army before it was ready and hopefully the Iron Born would join them.  Once they destroyed Stafford's army and had pretty much had  free rein in the West they adjusted their  plan to stay there and cut off Tywin from his Westerland resources and men and put him in the position to either stay at Harrenhall and abandon the West or leave Harrenhall and come West and risk Stannis attacking Kings Landing without Tywin being able to get to the city in time to help . 

Once they decided on the "lure Tywin West startegy" they should have found a way to inform Edmure of their plans (even though getting a message from the Westerlands to Riverrun would have it's risks ) but because Edmure had let his bannermen return to their own lands they just never thought he would recall those men  and pull the men out of the Twins and attack Tywin , they just misjudged Edmure and they paid for it . 

As for treating Edmure like a kid , i don't remember Robb or Blackfish really doing that but there is no doubt that Cat was doing it but she was under extreme stress and grief the whole time so it's hard to fault her 

[Lion of the West]

The most likely scenario to the OP would be that Tywin chases Robb around the Westerland or tries to break out into the Riverlands again while the Tyrells defeats Stannis and saves King's Landing. Given that the Tyrells have already declared against Stannis I see no reason as to why they would not destroy his army in this scenario as well. What would be different would be tha that the Tyrells would deal with the Lannisters from a much stronger position and its possible Cersei would cause a scene to do some self-destructive acts on behalf of House Lannister.

[Angel Eyes]

41 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

The most likely scenario to the OP would be that Tywin chases Robb around the Westerland or tries to break out into the Riverlands again while the Tyrells defeats Stannis and saves King's Landing. Given that the Tyrells have already declared against Stannis I see no reason as to why they would not destroy his army in this scenario as well. What would be different would be tha that the Tyrells would deal with the Lannisters from a much stronger position and its possible Cersei would cause a scene to do some self-destructive acts on behalf of House Lannister.

And Sansa would be dead meat.

[Lion of the West]

9 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

And Sansa would be dead meat.

Could well be.

[Bernie Mac]

23 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Which plan has a bunch of ifs? 

Please follow the conversation, it is right there in the post I was replying to.  I'm happy for you to be part of the debate but i am not going to hold your hand and recap what was said on the previous page because you are too lazy to read it. 

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Robb's force is far more mobile than Tywin's,

No it is not. Robb has less than 4.5k cavalry Tywin, even before he gets any possible reinforcements in his homeland, has over 7k.  Again, had you actually bothered to read the previous replies in this pretty short thread you would have known this.

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and Robb and the Blackfish have fought Tywin off his feet for several straight months now. 

no, they have not. I have zero idea how you have came to this conclusion. 

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Edmure is 100% responsible for Stannis' defeat;

No, once again you are clearly wrong. The biggest reason Stannis was beat was the Tyrells. Edmure had zero control over them

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Brynden makes it perfectly clear that luring Tywin west was the plan.

You do realize that he's not god, right? He can be wrong and in this case the evidence kind of suggests he is

• he has zero idea what the Tyrells would or would not have done, but what is quite apparent is that Robb did not even know they were in play, they were clueless about them
• if Edmure has been ordered to sit in Riverrrun and do nothing then there is nothing stopping Tywin receiving a messenger or a raven from the Golden Tooth and turning right around

Brynden's plan is flawed because it requires him conveniently ignoring the Tyrells and that armies are capable of changing direction when they hear new news

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Agreed.  What is certain is that Robb's army is far more competently led than Tywin's. 

That is far from certain, two of Robb's main commanders are the irrational and emotional Karstark and Black Walder and the Greatjon who Robb did not trust to face Tywin. 

Tywin, Kevan, Flement Brax, Addam Marbrand and even Clegane are among the most notable commanders among the West, I can see zero evidence to see how you can say one side is "far more competent" than the other. Especially given the fact that the side you think is the more competent would shortly lose the war. 

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Robb is a better tactician and strategist than Tywin,

Almost laughable given most of his tactics have relied on luck

• riding his entire army to the Twins with zero contact with the Freys and simply hoping he would be allowed to cross (thank god his mother was there to save his ass)
• hoping that none of the Westerland scouts would notice his army or report back that some of their colleagues had gone missing
• hoping that Jaime would attack without alerting the 12k sleeping army
• riding off to the Golden Tooth with no siege equipment, and likely not enough men to capture it. and then luckily finding a secret pathway thanks to his magical pet
• being able to attack another sleeping army who, once again, did not bother to post scouts

As for strategy, the incompetence in his defence of his capital while allowing all his men to get drunk at the red wedding, with Clegane and Tarly on the move, does not speak volumes for him in this regard.

Robb is a good leader, potentially a great one, but you are exaggerating here, he is not better, he may not even be as good as Tywin, but then he is still young. 

 

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and the Blackfish seems fairly superior to most of the subordinate commanders Tywin has. 

based on what? Addam Marbrand seems to be just as competent and respected.

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Which makes a lot of sense; Tywin is competent but explicitly rules through fear. 

Again, actually untrue. His direct subordinates are his brother, his former ward Addam and Clegane. And it is noticeable that the Greatjon has to be threatened with execution to obey while Lady Dustin only sends men out of fear. While Swyft feels comfortable enough to tell Tywin what he thinks he should do.  All medieval rulers rule through fear, but that is not the only reason. Tywin brought peace and stability to the West, there is a reason why he would be greatly respected. 

The Lannisters are actually recently intermarried to many of the powerful Houses of the West, their ties are stronger to their vassals than the Starks are. That is why the teenage Tywin was able to count on his cousins in Houses Marbrand and Prester when he took on the Reynes and Tarbecks

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It's not hard to see that his subordinates will be compliant with his orders but unwilling to take initiative for which they might be punished. 

Your head canon is being a little imaginative here. 

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Robb rules through a much more inclusive form of decision making,

no, he does not.  once he put on the crown he no longer took any advice, we see him repeatedly ignore sensible suggestions. 

Where is this evidence of king Robb being inclusive? 

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and thus his commanders tend to fight more effectively on their own (at least, when not in the process of actively betraying him a la Roose Bolton).

He has two subordinates, one betrayed him and the other he was unhappy with for not 'following orders'. That is hardly a great example. 

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Which doesn't matter, at all, if your enemy can't catch you.  Robb's cavalry is exceptionally well trained, well disciplined, and experienced

lol and Tywin's cavaly is not? Come on, speak sense. 

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- otherwise they wouldn't have won the Battle of the Camps so convincingly. 

They were against a sleeping army who were cut off from a large part of their force.  6k heavy horse plus the thousands at Riverrun were always going to have an huge addvantage against an 8k sleeping infantry. 

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Even if Robb doesn't have a larger amount of cavalry

what do you mean even if? He does not, he has a much smaller cavalry. 

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than Tywin (and he probably does), it's a significantly better force.

lol based on what? You wanting to be? You will have to do better than that. 

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We have no evidence of this and lots of circumstantial evidence to suggest otherwise.

no, the evidence was quoted on the previous page. Seriously, do yourself a favor and actually read more than a single post, it would stop silly mistakes like this. 

Tywin has over 7k cavalry after the battle of the Fords, Robb returns to the Riverlands with over 3,500 plus the Freys (minus the casualties they would have incurred) means Robb, cavalry wise, is significantly outnumbered. 

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Uh, so does Tywin?

no, he does not. He is in his homeland, he has the luxury of staying and being supplied by his vassals while Robb is forced to forage and erect camps and defenses. This, logically, will slow Robb down. 

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There aren't. 

Of course there is, don't be ridiculous. Even a pauper House like the Westerlings had around 100 men garrison, and they have nothing of value to protect. The majority of other lordly Houses are going to be better equipped

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At Oxcross, Robb defeats a force of green levies and some survivors of the Battle of the Camps.  There aren't any more military forces worth the name left in the Westerlands that aren't absolutely required to garrison the remaining castles.

there are thousands with Daven at Lanniport for a start. And of course Tywin can recruit them or use them. 

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Besides which, Tywin cannot play a waiting game.  The whole reason he has to abandon the entire strategic effort of the war and come home is because allowing Robb free reign will cause his army to desert as nobles leave to defend their lands.

no, the entire reason he goes West is because Stannis was supposed to be occupied at Storms End for a few months giving Tywin the time to deal with Robb. 

Notice how Tywin is happy to let Robb stay as long as he wants after the battle of Blackwater? None of his vassals are pressuring him. Tywin was happy to wait for Robb to come back in his own time. 

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- We have no evidence that he performed with that much distinction; he was Aerys' friend, that was the only given reason for why he knighted Aerys.

Yeah, we do. Knighted on the eve of the conflict, Ser Tywin Lannister fought in the retinue of the king’s young heir, Aerys, Prince of Dragonstone, and was given the honor of dubbing him a knight at war’s end.  Kevan Lannister, squiring for the Red Lion, also won his spurs, and was knighted by Roger Reyne himself.  Their brother Tygett, a squire of ten, was too young for knighthood, but his courage and skill at arms were remarked upon by all, for he slew a grown man in his first battle and three more in later fights, one of them a knight of the Golden Company.  “Those who beheld these proud young lions on the battlefield might rightly wonder how such could ever have sprung from the loins of the quivering fool beneath the Rock,”

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- He launched a surprise attack,

No, he did not.  Please read the source material, you continually guessing on what you think happened is tiring. 

The Reynes and Tarbecks chose defiance instead, as Ser Tywin surely knew they would.  Both Houses rose in open revolt, renouncing their fealty to Casterly Rock.  Tywin Lannister called the banners.

They were given a choice and chose to rebel, there was no surprise attack. 

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an extremely illegal one no less,

How so? no one else in the series assumes it to be illegal. both the sons of Ned Stark and Hoster Tully are able to call their banners and no one claims it is illegal. 

Neither Tytos or king Jaehaerys consider it wrong, what evidence from the books are you basing this on? 

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on an unsuspecting House and burned it to the ground. 

they were not unsuspecting, Lord Tarbeck chose to face Tywin in the field, was beaten and then his castle was given the opportunity to surrender, they refused and then defeated

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- Aerys II let Tywin in!  How is this astounding? 

You clearly don't understand much about actual military command. Logistics is often the key to victory in any war. 

• Tywin's ability to beat the rebels, who were closer, to the capital was a logistical miracle
• Tywin's ability to control a medieval city with  a population of 400k and with thousands of enemy soldiers in hours is a logistical miracle. 

I get it, you are more impressed with generals who have magical telepathic direwolves to get them victory, but actual real generals would see far more ability in the above two scenarios than a plot device. 

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- Sure, he was a commander.  The notable victories are not his, though, but Stannis'

where did I say otherwise. All I pointed out was that he was one of the commanders of that war, the fact that even this you have to quibble over speaks volumes. 

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- Again, launching a surprise chevauchee is not the sign of a military genius, but a ruthless general who will break all the laws and customs of war.

eh, you are moving the goal posts a bit. Tywin fighting dirty does not rule him out as a commander, the Black Prince fought dirty, no one is whining that his victories don't count as a result. 

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- Tywin wasn't commanding in the "decisive battle of the war". 

Yeah, he was. He was the overall commander. 

"If Lord Tywin could defeat a seasoned man like Stannis Baratheon, what chance will our boy king have against him?"

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"Since the night of the battle. Lord Tywin saved us all. The smallfolk say it was King Renly's ghost, but wiser men know better. It was your father and Lord Tyrell, with the Knight of Flowers and Lord Littlefinger. They rode through the ashes and took the usurper Stannis in the rear. 

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Tywin Lannister is not like to forget that, and you know it will be Lord Tywin who wins in the end. He's already beaten Stannis once, on the Blackwater."

Tywin was the snr commander of the battle. No one disputes this

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Garlan Tyrell leads the charge, and Randyll Tarly and Mace Tyrell command the center and the left flank.  That speaks to an army commanded far more by the Reachermen than Tywin.

It speaks to the fact that they are the majority of the army, but Tywin was still the senior commander. 

The struggle that the maesters were calling the War of the Five Kings was all but at an end. Mace Tyrell had been heard complaining that Lord Tywin had left no victories for him.

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The Golden Company is worried about the political acumen of Tywin Lannister, not his military might.  He's known to be decisive and have a strong force of personality.

No, they clearly are not. Only a few pages earlier Stickland and Connington were talking about how the war would have been won at the Stoney Sept if Tywin, and not Jon, was in charge. 

You really will try to disagree with everything with zero evidence but your own headcannon. 

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Please show us where we see that Tywin has more cavalry?

I already have, read the previous page rather than stumble on the last page of a topic looking for an argument. All these quotes are on the previous page. 

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  Every indication is that he shouldn't.  Robb's cavalry has taken effectively no losses in the war,

He starts off with 5K cavalry and on his way back to the Twins has 3,500. He recieved losses. 

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whereas Tywin's has, multiple times (certainly at the Camps, probably at Oxcross, and probably at the Green Fork). 

where are your quotes? 

 

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The Westerlands in general aren't a region that should support huge numbers of cavalry; it's a hilly and rugged area, not suited to breeding horses.

lol it is a country, you are being ridiculous, 

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And as I said, there are 100% no more reinforcements,

yeah, you do realize you saying that with zero evidence to back it up means little.

 

[Leonardo]

I rarely do this, but I'm going to have to agree with Bernie here about Robb and Brynden; he's giving them their due, but Tywin was undeniable in his logistics and overall strategy. None of HIS bannermen were ever given leave to "defend their own lands".

 

However, it does seem the Tyrells may not have rushed into the maw of king's landing so quickly, and that may have had a difference; given the bridge if ships however, Stannis may very well never have taken the city anyways without regrouping his forces.

 

Robb was in charge of the war, therefore he lost it, with the biggest mistake being Theon imo, though there is evidence to suggest Balon would invade anyways. Second was his mother's in regard to freeing Jaime, though as Tyrion notes at the end of AGOT, Tywin already gave up a deal of hope of him ever making it back alive, and his hopes would certainly have been fucked with Cat dead at RW.

[Blackfish Tully]

8 hours ago, Leonardo said:

I rarely do this, but I'm going to have to agree with Bernie here about Robb and Brynden; he's giving them their due, but Tywin was undeniable in his logistics and overall strategy. None of HIS bannermen were ever given leave to "defend their own lands".

 

 

this might be a little unfair to Robb and Brynden considering the fact that Tywin was losing the war pretty badly until the miracle of Renly dying at the hands of the Shadowbaby. His overall strategy led to him having two armies being crushed by Robb , Jaimie captured and the Westerlands invaded and him surrounded by enemies. One stroke of the shadowbaby's sword and his biggest enemy became his biggest ally and he had an overwhelming numerical advantage over his enemies without having to lift a finger . It does not mean that Tywin was not a great general , he clearly is , but it shows how much luck has to do with these things and also how much the events are out of their control sometimes.

 

Ser Kevan did as he was bid. Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. "Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners."

Tyrion smiled crookedly. "Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."

[Bernie Mac]

11 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

this might be a little unfair to Robb and Brynden considering the fact that Tywin was losing the war pretty badly

Sure, but then he was up against the vast majority of the realm. He was vastly outnumbered. 

• the Riverlands/North outnumber him
• Stannis and his Navy are a threat so he can't be too far away from kings landing
• Renly and his 80k are a threat from the south so he needs to be in a position to fight them
• Balon and the Ironborn are on his doorstep so his Navy and the garrisons of his strongest settlements on the coast need to be kept in place
• the Reach is at war with him, so the garrisons on the southern border need to be kept strong and in place
• he is at war with the Riverlands, so the garrisons on the eastern border need to be kept strong and in place

One kingdom going to war against the majority of the realm is suicide, any commander would lose that war. 

11 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Ser Kevan did as he was bid. Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. "Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners."

Tyrion smiled crookedly. "Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."

I agree with Tyrion here, it looked awful for them at this point, but neither Tyrion or Tywin think it is all over.  I also agree with Tyrion when he points out that his father would be able to deal with Robb

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?"

 

[Blackfish Tully]

19 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sure, but then he was up against the vast majority of the realm. He was vastly outnumbered. 

• the Riverlands/North outnumber him
• Stannis and his Navy are a threat so he can't be too far away from kings landing
• Renly and his 80k are a threat from the south so he needs to be in a position to fight them
• Balon and the Ironborn are on his doorstep so his Navy and the garrisons of his strongest settlements on the coast need to be kept in place
• the Reach is at war with him, so the garrisons on the southern border need to be kept strong and in place
• he is at war with the Riverlands, so the garrisons on the eastern border need to be kept strong and in place

One kingdom going to war against the majority of the realm is suicide, any commander would lose that war. 

 

All good points but my response was to the poster stating that " but Tywin was undeniable in his logistics and overall strategy " when Tywin's logistics and overall strategy had nothing to do with his victory , his victory was because a crazy woman gave birth to a shadow that killed Renly . 

 

19 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

I agree with Tyrion here, it looked awful for them at this point, but neither Tyrion or Tywin think it is all over.  I also agree with Tyrion when he points out that his father would be able to deal with Robb

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?"

 

Tyrion was not exactly a neutral observer then since he was trapped in Kings Landing at that point. Also this is after Renly was killed so things looked a lot better than before when they had Renly and the Tyrells moving a massive army towards Kings Landing . 

[Bernie Mac]

3 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

All good points but my response was to the poster stating that " but Tywin was undeniable in his logistics and overall strategy " when Tywin's logistics and overall strategy had nothing to do with his victory , his victory was because a crazy woman gave birth to a shadow that killed Renly . 

When Tywin went to war he was not blessed with the knowledge that Renly and the Reach would rebel or that his grandson would kill Ned.

3 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Tyrion was not exactly a neutral observer then since he was trapped in Kings Landing at that point.

Look if you are going to use a Tyrion quote on war as evidence for something you like you can't turn around and discount another quote from him on the same war as being wrong. 

3 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Also this is after Renly was killed so things looked a lot better than before when they had Renly and the Tyrells moving a massive army towards Kings Landing . 

Of course, but Tywin went to war before he even knew Renly and the Reach were going to rebel.

[Blackfish Tully]

17 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

When Tywin went to war he was not blessed with the knowledge that Renly and the Reach would rebel or that his grandson would kill Ned.

 

true but does not have anything to do with my point that Tywin's logistics and strategy had nothing to do with his victory . Tywin started the war with 2 armies in the Riverlands and 1 more potentially in the Westerlands plus the resources of the Westerlands and a few months later he has 2 armies destroyed and has lost access to the resources of the Westerlands . None of that had anything to do with Renly or the Tyrells .

 

21 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Look if you are going to use a Tyrion quote on war as evidence for something you like you can't turn around and discount another quote from him on the same war as being wrong. 

.

My quote had nothing to do with what Tyrion thought about the war , he simply was in the room while Tywin was laying out their situation . The quote you provided was Tyrion's thoughts about what was happening at that time and i never said he was wrong but i simply stated that he was not a neutral observer since he was in mortal danger in Kings Landing at that time .

[Bernie Mac]

9 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

true but does not have anything to do with my point that Tywin's logistics and strategy had nothing to do with his victory .

Except it did, his strategy was to stay at the secure and well stocked Harrenhal located pretty equally between Riverrun and Kings Landing while being close enough to the Trident to stop Roose's  army from breaching the central Riverlands. His strategy was patience until an advantageous opening became apparent.  

Other commanders may have picked other strategies in that scenario, Tywin's worked. 

Also Robb's magical direwolf finding a secret entrance into the West is not a fault of poor strategy on Tywin's part, it was just bad luck. 

9 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Tywin started the war with 2 armies in the Riverlands and 1 more potentially in the Westerlands plus the resources of the Westerlands and a few months later he has 2 armies destroyed

No, not destroyed, beaten but not destroyed. 

9 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

and has lost access to the resources of the Westerlands .

Except that is not true. At what point is Tywin in need of food, gold or equipment from the West? At no point does he feel the need to take resources from Kings Landing, so I really think you are exaggerating this one. 

Thanks to a secret pathway Tywin was unable to bring an untrained army to the Riverlands as fast as he wanted.

9 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

None of that had anything to do with Renly or the Tyrells .

It actually did. Thanks to the huge Reach army Tywin's movement is restricted. His lack of movement is very much on Renly and the Tyrells.

9 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

My quote had nothing to do with what Tyrion thought about the war ,

It was a quote by Tyrion, much like mine one was. You can't use one as evidence and conveniently hand wave the other away because you don't like it.