2018 Semi Finals - FRA vs BEL & ENG vs CRO

[Davrum]

It's probably wishful thinking but I'm picking England to set piece their way past a hobbling Croatia. Of course the Croats are more star-studded but their flash group phase play hasn't carried over to the two knock-out round ties which have emptied their gas tanks in a physical sense, and perhaps in an emotional sense too, especially given the political turmoil which is a part of their story. Meanwhile, the plucky, unfancied youngsters from Gareth's Gang practically strolled past Sweden and rather than controversy and strife at home are backed by a nation who have rightfully fallen madly in love with them.

From the other semi, it'd be so much fun to see Martinez's Men continue to ride the wave of luck which has seen them escape from two group phase matches they could so very easily have lost, but given how little trouble even a stuttering Brazil had cutting through them time and time again to create an avalanche of opportunities it's tough not to see France just having too much firepower.

Want: Belgium vs England final.

Predict: France vs England final.

[Altherion]

Croatia did a brilliant job managing their yellow cards: they have more than anyone in the tournament (Wiki says 12 which is more than half the total team and includes most starters)... but not a single player has two yellows or a red which means that they'll be starting from a clean slate in the semi-finals without any suspensions. However, they're also coming off a second game in a row decided by penalties and this time the recovery time is closer to half a week rather than nearly the week that they had last time. Also, they had a much more difficult set of games (England's only real challenge was against Columbia) so I'd be surprised if they had much strength left. It's possible that Croatia can win -- especially since they're now much less limited in playing the sort of physical, card-drawing game that they seem to prefer -- but England has to be favored here.

If I absolutely had to pick one of France and Belgium, I'd say France... but it is really close. There's a non-trivial chance that France wins 5-2 or something like that (Brazil certainly could have done that if they converted even half of their dangerous chances), but Belgium has managed to score when they need to and I wouldn't count them out: in my opinion, France is a weaker team than Brazil in nearly every respect.

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

Nous sommes venus. Nous avons vu. Nous avons mangé leur chocolat.

[Corvinus85]

France has yet to face an attacking power as Belgium's, and they looked shaky at times in defense, even against Uruguay without Cavani. Also, Lloris is the least tested of the remaining keepers. Yes, he made a wonderful save in the Uruguay game, but that's it. That being said, if Kante continues to be in top form, and Pogba also displays the determination he showed against Uruguay, I don't expect Belgium to have as much success in the midfield.

Belgium's defense will, no doubt, be smacked around again, but maybe Courtois will have another amazing performance. 

 

[Tijgy]

Belgium has the luck of the devil , who won from the "divine canaries" (like we call them in Flanders and the Netherlands). 

Anyway, the Belgian defense started to shake in the end because they were tired. I am not sure you can call them weak if you consider that Jan Vertonghen was able to chase Willian away of the field. 

And we have a good sign! Tomorrow a Belgian (Flemish), Greg Van Avermaet , will wear the yellow jersey!

[Consigliere]

Willian was pretty poor over the course of the tournament. The only good game he had was against Mexico, especially in the 2nd half.

Belgium's back three are quality players but there are several issues with the defence: 1) having to rely on wingers in Carrasco or Chadli to provide defensive cover at LWB - they are lacking in defensive positioning/awareness, 2) the lack of pace in the back three - this was very much exposed against Japan but Martinez mitigated this issue against Brazil by having the team sit deeper and play on the counter and 3) Meunier, the only specialist fullback in the squad, suspended for the France game.

[mormont]

Yeah, but you saw Martinez's solution to all that in the last game. Deploy an out-and-out defender at left-back to support the central defenders, and use a very attacking right-back. Everyone shuffles over a bit to cover when the right-back is bombing on, making it a 3 or a 4, depending.

Put Chadli in Meunier's place and that's likely what he'll do tomorrow. Chadli's not a defender but Meunier didn't do much defending against Brazil.

Pace, he can't do much about, and it's likely to be the principal problem. How to deal with Mbappe? Sit back and let him run at you, or get close and get skinned for pace?

ETA - it should be remembered, though, that Henry knows a little bit about pacy forward play and so might have some suggestions. Cutting off the supply would help.

[Corvinus85]

I'm guessing if Belgium beats France, Henry will become persona non grata in France.

[Tijgy]

58 minutes ago, La Albearceleste said:

Put Chadli in Meunier's place and that's likely what he'll do tomorrow. Chadli's not a defender but Meunier didn't do much defending against Brazil.

 

Fellaini was actually the fourth defender (as false right back) so that Meunier could go forward (https://sporza.be/nl/2018/07/06/villa-sporza-tactisch/). 

37 minutes ago, Corvinus of Teranga said:

I'm guessing if Belgium beats France, Henry will become persona non grata in France.

They are a little obsessed about it. We should be scared he isn't a mole for the French team . 

The questions the French press ask: is he going sing the Marseillaise?* KDB: I don't care if he does (like nobody in Belgium)  Another journalist went saying he should step aside during the game France-Belgium and he shouldn't sit on the bench. 

Anyway, if they wanted him on their team, they should have asked it before Martinez did. And except maybe giving advice to Lukaku, he isn't that instrumental. According to a player of the Belgian team (probably KDB or Courtois) the only thing he does is bragging about his past. And Dries Mertens said that he is only there to learn himself and he doesn't talk or do a lot. 

 

* Really, I actually think not all of our players sing the Brabaçonne. 

[Corvinus85]

9 minutes ago, Tijgy said:

Fellaini was actually the fourth defender (as false right back) so that Meunier could go forward (https://sporza.be/nl/2018/07/06/villa-sporza-tactisch/). 

They are a little obsessed about it. We should be scared he isn't a mole for the French team . 

The questions the French press ask: is he going sing the Marseillaise?* KDB: I don't care if he does (like nobody in Belgium)  Another journalist went saying he should step aside during the game France-Belgium and he shouldn't sit on the bench. 

Anyway, if they wanted him on their team, they should have asked it before Martinez did. And except maybe giving advice to Lukaku, he isn't that instrumental. According to a player of the Belgian team (probably KDB or Courtois) the only thing he does is bragging about his past. And Dries Mertens said that he is only there to learn himself and he doesn't talk or do a lot. 

 

* Really, I actually think not all of our players sing the Brabaçonne. 

Henry: Remember when I qualified France to the World Cup with a handball? Those were the days!

[mormont]

On the other semi-final: now, I'm Scottish so not an unbiased observer. :p But I wonder if I'm alone in thinking: yeah, England performed well against Sweden but. Sweden, despite putting in probably one of the worst performances I've seen in this tournament (I never saw KSA play), could well have had at least two goals, once the game opened up a bit and they went for it. If the Swedes had a striker, or if Pickford had not made some terrific saves, the game might have looked quite different.

Yeah, ifs and buts. But my point is, the English defence looks a bit more suspect than I think people are willing to acknowledge.

Mandzukic hasn't been on his game, to say the least, but he's an upgrade on Berg and Toivonen: the other Croatian strikers probably are too. And as good as Pickford's played, relying on your (young, relatively inexperienced) 'keeper to play a great match every time is a risk.

[Corvinus85]

I think in England's case is, how fit will the Croatians be for that game? Mandzukic was pretty much dead on his feet in extra time. Is Subasic ok, or will they have to go with the sub keeper? Only Modric was still running around by the end. And to be fair, Croatia should have closed out the Russia game in normal time, but besides Perisic's incredible miss, it didn't quite seem they had it in them. 

[Tijgy]

11 minutes ago, Corvinus of Teranga said:

Henry: Remember when I qualified France to the World Cup with a handball? Those were the days!

Hahaha. 

Anyway, Lukaku is really happy with him. 

And Martinez keeps claiming the fact he is useful because he did win something internationally while nobody in Belgium has that experience. So he is actually there to change the typical Belgian mentality: the absence of the believe our team is able to win the World Championship. He is there mostly for psychological support. Martinez also hired some sport psychologists and let the players see a documentary why Spain won the WC in 2010, which was apparently also the mentality. 

I think it does pay off a little. I don't think they would be able otherwise to come back during Japan-Belgium. Without it, Japan-Belgium would be a second Wales-Belgium , a national trauma. 

9 minutes ago, La Albearceleste said:

On the other semi-final: now, I'm Scottish so not an unbiased observer. :p But I wonder if I'm alone in thinking: yeah, England performed well against Sweden but. Sweden, despite putting in probably one of the worst performances I've seen in this tournament (I never saw KSA play), could well have had at least two goals, once the game opened up a bit and they went for it. If the Swedes had a striker, or if Pickford had not made some terrific saves, the game might have looked quite different.

Yeah, ifs and buts. But my point is, the English defence looks a bit more suspect than I think people are willing to acknowledge.

England isn't enjoyable to watch. And Harry Kane doesn't look very impressive IMO. 

I can only say who I want to win after the game Belgium-France because I want a Croatia-Belgium game. So if Belgium  wins, I want Croatia to win. And if France wins, England should win (which would sadly mean there isn't a country anymore to win it's first World Championship). 

[Consigliere]

1 hour ago, La Albearceleste said:

Put Chadli in Meunier's place and that's likely what he'll do tomorrow. Chadli's not a defender but Meunier didn't do much defending against Brazil.

Meunier got forward at times but he did plenty of defending against Brazil. Him, Fellaini and Alderweireld were covering their right side against Neymar, Coutinho and Marcelo. 

[Davrum]

3 hours ago, Tijgy said:

Belgium has the luck of the devil , who won from the "divine canaries" (like we call them in Flanders and the Netherlands). 

Anyway, the Belgian defense started to shake in the end because they were tired. I am not sure you can call them weak if you consider that Jan Vertonghen was able to chase Willian away of the field. 

And we have a good sign! Tomorrow a Belgian (Flemish), Greg Van Avermaet , will wear the yellow jersey!

I mean, I wouldn't call them "weak" per se, and like I said I'll be hollering for a Belgian victory, but it has to be said that in terms of creating legit goalscoring chances Brazil didn't just create more against Belgium than they had against any other opponent, they created more against Belgium than almost anyone had against any other opponent. Only one game in the entire tournament featured a side which created more than Brazil did in that game.

And to be clear, even with a questionable non-penalty call or two for Kompany taking Jesus down or Vertonghen's fingers in Neymar's eyeball, I'm not saying Brazil "deserved" to beat Belgium - creating an avalanche of opportunities doesn't mean jack if you go on to waste them in numbers so great they become comical - my worry as one who roots for the Red Devils is simply that if there is another side who wield as much creative firepower as Brazil at this tournament then it's France.

[Tijgy]

21 minutes ago, Davrum said:

I mean, I wouldn't call them "weak" per se, and like I said I'll be hollering for a Belgian victory, but it has to be said that in terms of creating legit goalscoring chances Brazil didn't just create more against Belgium than they had against any other opponent, they created more against Belgium than almost anyone had against any other opponent. Only one game in the entire tournament featured a side which created more than Brazil did in that game.

 And to be clear, even with a questionable non-penalty call or two for Kompany taking Jesus down or Vertonghen's fingers in Neymar's eyeball, I'm not saying Brazil "deserved" to beat Belgium - creating an avalanche of opportunities doesn't mean jack if you go on to waste them in numbers so great they become comical - my worry as one who roots for the Red Devils is simply that if there is another side who wield as much creative firepower as Brazil at this tournament then it's France.

I just think France is more efficient than Belgium. Because in general Belgium is more offensive then they were in the game against Brazil. Dries Mertens was swapped for Fellaini who is more defensive. I think the biggest issue is how you will replace Meunier, you have again the luck of the  and Courtois has a good day again.

I was actually so terrified during the game against the Brazil, I only saw 40 % of the game. (I did saw the entire game yesterday though, because it is actually a big moment for our Belgian football history ). 

If they lose tomorrow, I already found a way to console myself: Chadli's goal on the music of the Titanic or Courtois "I believe I can fly". 

[mormont]

Also, I hate to be a negative nelly, but I do want to say this now because if England do win the thing (and they very well might) I'd be accused of sour grapes if I waited to say it when the tournament's over.

I said before this began (on the footy thread) that I wasn't nearly as excited as normal for this WC and as a neutral, it's frankly not been a great tournament.

I know. I'm wrong for a dozen reasons. This goal. That performance. The other team going out. But I just haven't seen a team that, as a neutral, I've been excited to watch. Belgium are the closest thing, with Brazil and France behind them. Everything else... eh. There were exciting moments, thrills along the way, but they were fleeting. I'm going to miss the final on Saturday and I find that I don't really mind.

Except if England win it, because I'll be in England at the time. :p

[ljkeane]

10 minutes ago, La Albearceleste said:

 I'm going to miss the final on Saturday and I find that I don't really mind.

The final's on Sunday.

[Tijgy]

As a complete non-neutral the only interesting games were the ones with Belgium.

Although it was also kind of funny when Columbia started to lose and became a little bit crazy. (I really think Columbia deserved the win. It was Kane who started the struggle, not the Columbian. There shouldn't have been a penalty)

[Corvinus85]

I was prepared to hate this tournament because of the absence of a few teams, and yes that includes the USA, but the fall of several other big names resulted in me enjoying this tournament more. And while I was kinda rooting for Germany in the beginning, I got over their elimination pretty quickly. Also, I am extremely happy with the final 4 teams we got, and would have been more upset if Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Portugal and/or Russia would have made it this far.