U.S. Politics- SCOTUS 2: The Election Strikes Back

[Morpheus]

Edit- oops

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnBrennan/status/1018885971104985093

 

[Fez]

I wouldn't expect Flake to vote against Kavanaugh, getting someone like him on SCOTUS is a dream opportunity for a true believer conservative like Flake. However, there are a ton of other things Flake could do to hold Trump accountable and he isn't doing any of them. Flake, like every Republican Senator, has a huge amount of leverage in a 50-49 senate and he isn't using any of it. He could be blocking administration nominations (which don't matter to his interests nearly as much as judicial nominations) until action is taken, he could vote in favor of Democratic resolutions on various oversight matters, he could block Republican bills that don't relate to the issues he cares about, etc.

And its not just Flake. There are tons of things Republicans could do to contain Trump without undermining their policy interests (though honestly, most of them barely have any policy interests beyond re-election, which is why its particularly galling that the retiring ones won't do more).

The crazy thing is, the one time a Republican Senator did something like this, it absolutely and without question worked. Cory Gardner was angry about potential DOJ action against the legal marijuana industry in Colorado and he blocked every DOJ nominee from getting a vote until he got guarantees that DOJ would do nothing. DOJ backed down within weeks. Yet no other senators have taken his example and used it for matters far more important.

[Zorral]

Illegitimate potus -- and, of course, a treasonous one:

https://www.salon.com/2018/07/14/trumps-presidency-is-illegitimate/

Quote

 

In announcing the indictment, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein may have refused to point to a victim of the Russians’ crimes other than to say it was America itself, but the intent of the Russians was clear. They took active measures over a period of at least nine months to aid the campaign of Donald Trump and to damage the campaign of Hillary Clinton. They stole the election for Donald Trump, and he helped them do it.

From Paragraph 20 of the indictment, “The Object of the Conspiracy”: “The object of the conspiracy was to hack into the computers of US. persons and entities involved in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, steal documents from those computers, and stage releases of the stolen documents to interfere with the 2016 US. presidential election.”

The indictment is breathtaking in the specificity of the crimes it outlines, how those crimes were committed, and by whom.

 

It's also deranged.  He's taken to stating he and his father were born in the Euro Zone.

[Paladin of Ice]

I’m incredibly furious reading the news right now. Not only should Trump be cast out of office and into jail, (and hanging might be too good for him) by all rights there should be a de-Trumpification process afterwards. Every judge and official he put in place should be removed, his executive actions overturned,  laws he signed struck down, and every cent and property he has forfeit.

Fuck this Cheeto colored shit smear.

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Also, I am keeping track of the generic House ballot, it looks like its about D+8.5-9, which is a clear 2 points gain since say last month. Things are looking up a bit for retaking the House.

Yes, and Sabato and Cook's forecasts are also both looking up.  Historically, a toss up wins 50% of the time, a "lean" 80% of the time and a "likely" 94% of the time.  Based on those winning percentages and the current allocation of Safe/Likely/Lean/tossup seats, Democrats are expected to win ~219 seats.  Now obviously, that comes with several HUGE caviats, that the election isn't today, many races don't even have candidates selected yet, and it is quite possible that Republicans win a higher percentage of their "lean/likely" seats than Democrats do, which would obviously swing the election in their favor. 

[Which Tyler]

8 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

I’m incredibly furious reading the news right now. Not only should Trump be cast out of office and into jail, (and hanging might be too good for him) by all rights there should be a de-Trumpification process afterwards. Every judge and official he put in place should be removed, his executive actions overturned,  laws he signed struck down, and every cent and property he has forfeit.

Fuck this Cheeto colored shit smear.

I take it that you disagree with Cockwomble that it'd be a good idea to have Russian investigators sitting on the Meuller probe "to investigate the Russian side"

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Trebla said:

I read that during the press conference, Trump said Putin offered to send Russian investigators to "help" with the Russian investigation and Trump said it was "an extraordinary idea".  That pee tape HAS to be real. But you are right, Republicans will do nothing since a SC chair is on the line.

While we can’t say for sure if the tape is real, I think at this point it’s impossible to conclude that Putin doesn’t have any kompromat on Trump. Trump’s behavior cannot indicate anything else. Trump spent decades trying to do business in Russia, his son has said that they have unlimited access to Russian financiers and anyone who knows anything about big business in Russia knows that it all flows through Putin. If Trump has done any shady business in Russia, and/or has any connections to questionable individuals, Putin knows about it.

[Paladin of Ice]

7 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I take it that you disagree with Cockwomble that it'd be a good idea to have Russian investigators sitting on the Meuller probe "to investigate the Russian side"

Was I too obvious about it? I thought I was doing a good job of being subtle and discreet.

[Which Tyler]

8 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

Was I too obvious about it? I thought I was doing a good job of being subtle and discreet.

On the one hand, I must be very clever to have got it.

On the other, there are so many specifics you could have used, I only had a 1% chance of actually getting the right one

[Mexal]

DOJ just arrested a Russian spy. Here is the affidavit. 

 

[Relic]

On the bright side..ummm. Sorry, there is no bright side.

 

 But Foxnews.com actually has some critical pieces up on Trump, even tho they are not in the leed. The sad truth is that America needs Rupert Murdoch to step in in order for this charade to end. 

[Zorral]

44 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

Was I too obvious about it? I thought I was doing a good job of being subtle and discreet.

U r mayB gone 2 far.  Don't we always put a fox in the hen house to find out who is takin r chickeeze?

[Trebla]

This will probably be all we get from Ryan. McConnell so far is refusing to comment.

[Frog Eater]

4 minutes ago, Trebla said:

This will probably be all we get from Ryan. McConnell so far is refusing to comment.

and Sarah Huckabee Sanders is currently drinking heavily while she prepares to deliver the White House response to the Helsinki press conference. You see, what he meant was..... 

[Maithanet]

I feel like it is hard to come up with a charitable interpretation of Trump's policy towards Russia.  I feel like the (best spin for him) reasonable interpretation of what he's doing is that he wants Russia to interfere in the 2018 and 2020 elections, and he's making sure that everyone understands that. 

This interpretation is still really really bad - he's siding with America's enemies against America's Democracy for the sake of his own political gain.  But the alternative is worse (that he's actively compromised by Russia).  The third path of "maybe he just favors Russia and wants to improve relations with them" simply beggars belief.  Even if he wanted to improve relations with Russia, everyone knows acting like a complete doormat is not the way to do it, and he has been going with the doormat approach 100% of the time. 

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

9 minutes ago, Maithanet der Mannschaft said:

I feel like it is hard to come up with a charitable interpretation of Trump's policy towards Russia.  I feel like the (best spin for him) reasonable interpretation of what he's doing is that he wants Russia to interfere in the 2018 and 2020 elections, and he's making sure that everyone understands that. 

This interpretation is still really really bad - he's siding with America's enemies against America's Democracy for the sake of his own political financial gain. 

Fixed that for ya.

[Trebla]

16 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

and Sarah Huckabee Sanders is currently drinking heavily while she prepares to deliver the White House response to the Helsinki press conference. You see, what he meant was..... 

Yeah, it's going to be a shit show. LOT'S of people are speaking out now. That doesn't mean they will take action but it's SOMETHING. 

This one I found VERY interesting. 

 

[denstorebog]

1 hour ago, Maithanet der Mannschaft said:

Yes, and Sabato and Cook's forecasts are also both looking up.  Historically, a toss up wins 50% of the time, a "lean" 80% of the time and a "likely" 94% of the time.  Based on those winning percentages and the current allocation of Safe/Likely/Lean/tossup seats, Democrats are expected to win ~219 seats.  Now obviously, that comes with several HUGE caviats, that the election isn't today, many races don't even have candidates selected yet, and it is quite possible that Republicans win a higher percentage of their "lean/likely" seats than Democrats do, which would obviously swing the election in their favor. 

This is pretty much gut feeling, but I think the current GCB polls are missing a couple of things, ie. the forecast is probably even better for the Dems than it seems. First of all, there's the whole RV/LV transition waiting to happen which will probably give D another +2 at the least. Secondly, the newly released fundraising numbers are completely off the charts for Democrats. The money will be matched by Republican megadonors, but as an indication of things to come, we're looking at historical enthusiasm at the grassroots level. Finally, I can think of at least three things between now and November that's going to work against Republicans (Mueller's investigation will heat up, ACA premiums are going up and the Trump Foundation is going to be hauled off to court - in October, I believe).

Coupled with some of the recent Senate polls (Nelson up over Scott), and barring any unicorn-level miracles for the Republicans in the coming months, I honestly do think the Senate could be in play.

(In case you missed the fundraising news - haven't followed this thread for the last couple of pages:)

 

[denstorebog]

On another note, WTF is up with this?

FCC sends Sinclair mega-deal to likely doom

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

This is pretty much gut feeling, but I think the current GCB polls are missing a couple of things, ie. the forecast is probably even better for the Dems than it seems. First of all, there's the whole RV/LV transition waiting to happen which will probably give D another +2 at the least. Secondly, the newly released fundraising numbers are completely off the charts for Democrats. The money will be matched by Republican megadonors, but as an indication of things to come, we're looking at historical enthusiasm at the grassroots level. Finally, I can think of at least three things between now and November that's going to work against Republicans (Mueller's investigation will heat up, ACA premiums are going up and the Trump Foundation is going to be hauled off to court - in October, I believe).

Coupled with some of the recent Senate polls (Nelson up over Scott), and barring any unicorn-level miracles for the Republicans in the coming months, I honestly do think the Senate could be in play.

We'll see, and I hope you're right.  I agree that there are definitely things that COULD go the Dems way between now and November.  One other thing you didn't mention - while the effects will take a long time to register, if the WH goes ahead with $200 billion in tariffs on China by end of August, there are definitely going to be economic problems by November.  Prices will rise and agricultural markets are going to be crazy.  It might only be the tip of the iceberg in terms of long term economic impact, but it will be happening, and China + Europe are designing their counter-tariffs to hit Red America the hardest. 

While a huge portion of Trump's base seems to be impervious to negative news, I think the stories that are just starting to come out about farmers and factory workers losing their jobs will take a toll if they continue through November.  Trump's message to "be patient, this is all a negotiation", doesn't sound like a winner to me if the economy actually falters.