U.S. Politics- SCOTUS 2: The Election Strikes Back

[Martell Spy]

11 minutes ago, LongRider said:

I hope SNL pulls off a good skit about 45 and Putin's presser.   Might be fun. 

Hopefully John Stewart addresses it.

[LongRider]

3 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Hopefully John Stewart addresses it.

Love me some Stewart. 

10 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I don't think they're back in session for another few weeks.

There will be a new outrage by then.

Speaking of which, something about kids in cages...

Oh, I don't watch TV so didn't know that. Dayum, that's too bad. 

[Jace, Extat]

1 minute ago, LongRider said:

Love me some Stewart. 

Oh, I don't watch TV so didn't know that. Dayum, that's too bad. 

Yeah, and the last episode of the season was the stupid 'Mother's Day' bit where they try to be noncontroversial.

[Free Northman Reborn]

To me the most honest comment made in the Putin-Trump press conference came from Putin when he, with some exasperation, tried to explain to the media the simple truth that neither he nor Trump should be expected to trust the other, but instead that their positions should be to seek the best interest of their respective countries. They are therefore competitors,  not friends, nor should they be expected to be. But in the world of realpolitik it is not about arguments of principle, rather than about arriving at a negotiated position that gains your country some type of benefit, even if the other country gains too.

This is not so much a comment about Trump, but about Putin, whose position on this has always been clear and consistent. He does not claim to be your friend. He is there to represent his country. As every leader should.

[Jace, Extat]

Meanwhile, just saw a foto of Mr. and Mr. Putin shaking hands.

For a buffoon who is so humiliatingly intent on getting the 'best' of a handshake, I wonder if Mr. Putin was aware that Mr. Putin's hand was quite clearly -though tactfully- the dominant in the exchange. Judging from the hapless grin on Mr. Putin's face, though, I think he was just more excited to have Mr. Putin's hand on his own.

[Which Tyler]

Only in 'Murca

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44859238

Quote

The owner of the Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas has filed a lawsuit against more than 1,000 victims of a mass shooting that killed 58 people in 2017.

 

[Morpheus]

The NRA and the Koch Bros among others will no longer have to reveal donors to the IRS

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/07/17/politics/treasury-irs-donor-lists/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

Just happens to be a coincidence that it sure looks like the NRA funnled Russian cash to the Trump campaign, right?

[Morpheus]

In his prepared remarks yesterday, Trump crossed out a line about punishing the election hackers and wrote in large letters “there was no colusion”

https://www.buzzfeed.com/briannasacks/trump-crossed-out-a-line-about-punishing-election-hackers?utm_term=.wilM9wYGW#.tnrBo28Xk

[Mexal]

3 hours ago, Morpheus said:

The NRA and the Koch Bros among others will no longer have to reveal donors to the IRS

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/07/17/politics/treasury-irs-donor-lists/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

Just happens to be a coincidence that it sure looks like the NRA funnled Russian cash to the Trump campaign, right?

"It's a first amendment right to give as much money as you want and not be held liable". I fucking hate how much money is in our politics.

[Fez]

12 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Poll: Corruption message gaining traction against GOP

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/17/corruption-republicans-democrats-poll-728977
 

The analysis I've seen most often of 2006, i.e. the last successful Democratic midterm, was that it was corruption that sunk the GOP. It wasn't the Katrina response (which, like a lot of Trump scandals, mostly angered Democrats rather than independents or Republicans) and it wasn't the Iraq War (which had started to become unpopular but wasn't yet the millstone it became in 2007 & 2008 for Republicans), it was the constant little stories about Republican corruption (Abramoff, Delay, Foley, etc.) that built up. The failed Bush effort at privatizing Social Security probably also played a role, but that was early enough in 2005 that's it hard to know how much people still remembered it.

And the result was Democrats winning 44% of white men and 49% of white women, which seems low but is actually an incredible performance for Democrats. In 2016, those numbers were 31% and 43% for Clinton (and this isn't just ongoing Democratic decline, in 2004 Kerry got 37% and 44%). That's the kind of result that makes gerrymandering irrelevant because it's not Democratic overperformance in their usual voting groups (which is what gerrymandering is intended to resist), it's flipping over usually-Republican voters. The same phenomenon that is making Orange County, CA flip so hard and so fast from a Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning area.

[Serious Callers Only]

Seems like Putin wants to attack montenegro (latest NATO member) and Trump is doing his toady work.

https://nordic.businessinsider.com/trump-montenegro-nato-fox-news-interview-2018-7?r=US&IR=T&utm_source=reddit.com

 

Small green 'montenegro' men will start to attack russian civilian border populations soon 'it's a war of aggression' will cry pathetic worm trump 'we won't support the (2000) military men in montenegro'.

 

All of this lead on by hannity, tucker and fox news as the good minitrue they are.

[DanteGabriel]

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

To me the most honest comment made in the Putin-Trump press conference came from Putin when he, with some exasperation, tried to explain to the media the simple truth that neither he nor Trump should be expected to trust the other, but instead that their positions should be to seek the best interest of their respective countries. They are therefore competitors,  not friends, nor should they be expected to be. But in the world of realpolitik it is not about arguments of principle, rather than about arriving at a negotiated position that gains your country some type of benefit, even if the other country gains too.

This is not so much a comment about Trump, but about Putin, whose position on this has always been clear and consistent. He does not claim to be your friend. He is there to represent his country. As every leader should.

Lol, Putin's primary governing activities are to loot his country's mineral wealth on behalf of his cronies and to crush internal dissent through any means necessary, including outright murder, and unabashedly turn his nation into an international pariah, but sure, he's there to "represent his country." You goose-steppers crawl so far up your own intestinal tract you get turned upside down.

[Relic]

20 minutes ago, Serious Callers Only said:

Seems like Putin wants to attack montenegro (latest NATO member) and Trump is doing his toady work.

https://nordic.businessinsider.com/trump-montenegro-nato-fox-news-interview-2018-7?r=US&IR=T&utm_source=reddit.com

 

Small green 'montenegro' men will start to attack russian civilian border populations soon 'it's a war of aggression' will cry pathetic worm trump 'we won't support the (2000) military men in montenegro'.

 

All of this lead on by hannity, tucker and fox news as the good minitrue they are.

What the actual fuck?????? 

[Serious Callers Only]

It's not even the first time Putin tried to coup montenegro (they tried to kill the president back in 2016), but before it wasn't a NATO member. I guess we know part of what was on those 'secret talks' since I doubt Trump knew montenegro even existed before bullying it on this instance.

 

Granted, that president is also a no-good person:

"Together with Viktor Orbán of Hungary, Đukanović was a runner-up to Vladimir Putin for the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project's 2014 Person of the Year award, recognizing "the person who does the most to enable and promote organized criminal activity"

But whatever.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 hours ago, Zorral said:

All we need is to read or hear him to know most of those words used are not in his vocabulary.  Now, "There are lots of people" -- that was his and his alone, and totally his rhetoric.

Yep, that’s the tell. On-prompter Trump sounds like a college professor. Off the cuff Trump has a worse lexicon than my 10 year old god-daughter.

[Paladin of Ice]

Generic Democrat is now up about 9.5 points against Generic Republican on 538’s polling aggregate. And only 2 years too late.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

It wasn't the Katrina response (which, like a lot of Trump scandals, mostly angered Democrats rather than independents or Republicans) and it wasn't the Iraq War (which had started to become unpopular but wasn't yet the millstone it became in 2007 & 2008 for Republicans), it was the constant little stories about Republican corruption (Abramoff, Delay, Foley, etc.) that built up.

It most definitely was the Iraq War - Bush's approval was down to 37 by the election and the Iraq War was pretty much equally unpopular - Gallup had 37% saying it was "worth going to war"  in March 2006 and 40% favoring the war the month before.  Analysis found Republicans were particularly hurt in districts with high levels of casualties - see here and here:

Quote

In 2006, George W. Bush’s low approval led to larger swings in GOP-held districts than Democratic-held ones. In addition, a war in Iraq that had turned unpopular leading up to the 2006 election affected Republicans in districts with high numbers of war deaths and Republicans who voted for the war. The national sense of scandal due to the Mark Foley page revelations, the Jack Abramoff scandal, and other scandals had a more pronounced effect in districts where a member was implicated. [18-19]

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

So this is how it is to live in tumultuous times (as I imagine the lead up to WWII and including, as well as much of the 60s would have been). It isn't as fun and exciting as I thought, and is actually quite a drudge.

[Fez]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

It most definitely was the Iraq War - Bush's approval was down to 37 by the election and the Iraq War was pretty much equally unpopular - Gallup had 37% saying it was "worth going to war"  in March 2006 and 40% favoring the war the month before.  Analysis found Republicans were particularly hurt in districts with high levels of casualties - see here and here:

 

Bush's approval rating was due to lots of things, not just the Iraq War. And Gallup is just one poll. The Iraq War definitely wasn't popular anymore, but a lot of polls were still more mixed than Gallup. For instance, CNN in June 2006 still had 44% saying the war was not a mistake (which was an improvement from 39% in March). Which is not a great number, but not the worst either. And going back, a lot of polls found approval of the war still in the low 40s in 2006. It was in 2007 and 2008 when it dipped down into the 30s or even high 20s (and because Americans are stupid and forgetful, it's back into the 40s again whenever the question gets asked "looking back...").

Meantime, CNN's 2006 exit poll found:

Quote

Asked which issues were extremely important to their vote, 42 percent said corruption and ethics; 40 percent, terrorism; 39 percent, the economy; 37 percent, Iraq; 36 percent, values; and 29 percent, illegal immigration.

Not saying Iraq played no role, but it wasn't the deciding factor of the election either.

Also, nice early cameo here by the 29% that would end up becoming Trump's base.

[DMC]

Some notable polls the last few days.  Monmouth has challenger Harley Rouda statistically tied with Rohrabacher 47-45 in a small sample (n=402).  Gravis has Nelson up 4 over Scott, 47-43.  They also have interesting numbers for the governor's race - DeSantis is beating Putnam by 6 (35-29) in the GOP primary while Gwen Graham is up by 9 in the crowded Dem primary - that's the first poll to show anyone really breaking out of the field.  In the general election matchups, Graham beats DeSantis 42-38, but Putnam beats Graham 40-39.

Emerson has Bredesen over Blackburn 43-37, and even in the gubernatorial race has Dem Karl Dean beating both the top two GOP contenders, although still with tons of undecideds - 39-35 vs. Black and 36-34 vs. Boyd.  I think Bredesen really has a shot.  Need more evidence for Dean though.