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R+L=J vs N+A=J (GRRM looses either way)


Euron III Greyjoy

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8 minutes ago, KingEuronGreyjoy said:

Jon would inherit winterfell. Not Catelyn’s kids. Ned didn’t want his kids to lose their inheritance. Jon would be the heir. I think he did it protect him from being killed by Catelyn.

Only if Brandon was married to Ashara, and we have zero evidence that he was. Not to mention. Brandon was DEAD when Jon was conceived. Dead men don't father babies. 

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10 minutes ago, Pikachu101 said:
  1. Catelyn's children are trueborn Starks, Jon's a bastard Snow
  2. Jon's Lord Commander of the Night's Watch so he can't inherit even if he wanted to
  3. Rickon has the Manderlys behind him and Sansa has the Vale behind her
  4. "Winterfell belongs to my sister Sansa"

Can we please, please, please stop using the show for everything ? 3. and 4. are clearly show only.  I know that 4 is a direct quote from the book, but it is also only a wrong idea, as the testament is not revealed.

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2 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Can we please, please, please stop using the show for everything ? 3. and 4. are clearly show only.  I know that 4 is a direct quote from the book, but it is also only a wrong idea, as the testament is not revealed.

Manderlys weren't doing shit in the show.

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On 7/13/2018 at 1:36 PM, EloImFizzy said:

First off I want to point out that this isn't a debate on which one is true, we already have plenty of those out there. This is just me pointing something out.

Regardless of whether GRRM has planned for Rhaegar and Lyanna, or Ned and Ashara to be Jon's parents, I really feel like either way he is going to get shit on by a considerate number of 'fans' no matter what the result is. If R+L=J is true then he is going to have people complain that it was way to simple and cliche, and if N+A=J wins then people are going to complain that he changed his answer because either he wanted to be different from the TV show, or he didn't like that fans guessed the right answer to quickly. 

This is kind of a nothing post, but I just figured it is kind of sad that GRRM is going to have to deal with complaints either way. He already gets shit on for not finishing TWoW, and now he's going to get shit on for this aswell. I can already see a number of ASOIAF theory YouTube channels making videos on it in the future. 

Fans either guessed right or guessed wrong about Jon's parentage.  Nobody needs to shit on anybody over that.  GRRM will reveal all when he finishes A Dream of Spring. 

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1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

Can we please, please, please stop using the show for everything ? 3. and 4. are clearly show only.  I know that 4 is a direct quote from the book, but it is also only a wrong idea, as the testament is not revealed.

I'm not mentioning the show at all, in fact I make it a point to call out anyone who does. The Manderlys and Sansa's Vale arc were ignored by the writers so what does that have to do with the show? Also the quote was directly from the book because KingEuronGreyjoy theorised that Jon would be given the throne instead of his trueborn siblings, I was pointing out that he wouldn't do such a thing because he's already refused Stannis' offer. Nothing I wrote mentions the show. 

1 hour ago, KingEuronGreyjoy said:

In the books Jon is alive in Ghost

That's an interesting theory, I believe Robb did the same thing with Greywind before he died as well. 

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3 hours ago, SirArthur said:

Can we please, please, please stop using the show for everything ? 3. and 4. are clearly show only.  I know that 4 is a direct quote from the book, but it is also only a wrong idea, as the testament is not revealed.

3. The Manderlys basically don't exist n the abomination, this is a book reference. 

4. Jon says that and Stannis replies something along the lines of, "Lady Lannister, you mean?". Obvious book reference as well. 

:)

3 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Yes he did and that Tourney took place in 281. Jon was born in 283.

Maybe it's true and the real secret and major OMG reveal will be that Brandon and Ashara were elephants. That is the only way to explain the lengthy gestation period! :lol:

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52 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

That is the only way to explain the lengthy gestation period!

Well, that or Selmy is simply cough not a very accurate analyst of reality. 

What he believes -- drawing from various rumors he's heard about Ashara and what she did at various times -- is not necessarily the truth or anywhere close to it.

There's another passage from ADWD in which GRRM is pretty clearly trying to point out this distinction for the reader's benefit:

Quote

 

"Tormo Fregar will be the new sealord."

"Is that what they are saying at the Inn of the Green Eel?"

"Yes."

The kindly man took a bite of his egg. The girl heard him chewing. He never spoke with his mouth full. He swallowed, and said, "Some men say there is wisdom in wine. Such men are fools. At other inns other names are being bruited about, never doubt." He took another bite of egg, chewed, swallowed. "What three new things do you know, that you did not know before?"

"I know that some men are saying that Tormo Fregar will surely be the new sealord," she answered. "Some drunken men."

"Better."

 

Selmy isn't even as good an authority, re Ashara, as these drunken men re the next sealord.  They could actually be right, but we know Selmy is wrong about Ashara's gestation period, and he could easily be wrong about all of it.

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20 minutes ago, JNR said:

Well, that or Selmy is simply cough not a very accurate analyst of reality. 

What he believes -- drawing from various rumors he's heard about Ashara and what she did at various times -- is not necessarily the truth or anywhere close to it.

There's another passage from ADWD in which GRRM is pretty clearly trying to point out this distinction for the reader's benefit:

Selmy isn't even as good an authority, re Ashara, as these drunken men re the next sealord.  They could actually be right, but we know Selmy is wrong about Ashara's gestation period, and he could easily be wrong about all of it.

 Not sure why you're telling me that. Me, of all people. Firstly, I never mentioned ser Barry... Secondly, i think he's dead wrong about most everything, especially Ashara having been "dishonoured". :dunno:

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15 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

i think he's dead wrong about most everything, especially Ashara having been "dishonoured"

I'm not sure I'd go that far.

Some things he thinks pertaining to Ashara stem from his own personal observation and hence are almost certainly true... for instance, her eye color, or that if he'd been the tourney champion, he'd have named her QoLaB.  Selmy is a leading authority on these topics.

But in areas like her sex life, he obviously wasn't there and he doesn't know whom she banged at Harrenhal (if anyone).  

Did she have a child?  He was convalescing from his Trident wounds, far away; he doesn't know.  He heard a rumor.  Did she die?  He doesn't know, but there's a rumor, which he believed.

And it doesn't matter how many characters hear rumors or choose to believe them.  They remain rumors and not to be trusted.  (And I suspect GRRM is going to be exploring this premise in a major way in the next book.)

So I think Selmy's just a typical instance of people in this pre-science, pre-journalism world who arbitrarily choose what to believe (and some of these rumors, we know, are deliberately created for PR effect, like the rumor Shireen is Patchface's daughter that Littlefinger dreamed up).

6 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Though he's not wrong about her having sex

How do you know?

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6 minutes ago, JNR said:

I'm not sure I'd go that far.

Some things he thinks pertaining to Ashara stem from his own personal observation and hence are almost certainly true... for instance, her eye color, or that if he'd been the tourney champion, he'd have named her QoLaB.  Selmy is a leading authority on these topics.

Sure, but those are well-established facts. I meant that the things he deduces from what little actual knowledge he has are, quite likely, wrong. I'm talking here specifically about Ashara having been dishonoured versus having had a fling w/ someone. 

6 minutes ago, JNR said:

But in areas like her sex life, he obviously wasn't there and he doesn't know whom she banged at Harrenhal (if anyone).  

Did she have a child?  He was convalescing from his Trident wounds, far away; he doesn't know.  He heard a rumor.  Did she die?  He doesn't know, but there's a rumor, which he believed.

And it doesn't matter how many characters hear rumors or choose to believe them.  They remain rumors and not to be trusted.  (And I suspect GRRM is going to be exploring this premise in a major way in the next book.)

So I think Selmy's just a typical instance of people in this pre-science, pre-journalism world who arbitrarily choose what to believe (and some of these rumors, we know, are deliberately created for PR effect, like the rumor Shireen is Patchface's daughter that Littlefinger dreamed up).

How do you know?

All the info available point towards Ashara having had a child. Whether mother or child are alive is immaterial here. This is info that comes from different sources, too. So, until we get more actual information, my money is she did have sex, and may have had a child. 

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This is part of the problem (well our problem really) with books taking a long time to come out. You start thinking of your ideas, you discuss them, they become more and more real to the point that you believe you have it right, and no one else does. When it becomes your idea and basically a part of you for 8 or 20 or w/e amount of years, it gets tough when it turns out you are wrong. 

With that being said, I still think it's with Wylla. I think R+L=J (or any variant) is just a red haring. I always thought that somebody+L=J was pretty obvious to the reader, that GRRM really wanted us to think Lyanna was Jon's actual mother. So I always thought it was too obvious and thought that Ned was telling the truth the whole time, making it a bit interesting to me at least. But I am sure I am wrong also, since R+L=J seems to have a lot of backing and the proof for it is pretty good. I just feel like I can't turn my back on Wylla now, on the very off chance I happen to be right, haha. So I don't think I will be angry when I find out I am wrong, just kinda disappointed? I guess?

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I don't think Martin will get much shit for it because most of his fans have accepted R + L = J as reality, which it is.  It is concrete and not debatable.  There are a small contingent of fans, some of whom are on this board, that don't want that to be true for whatever reason, but no amount of wishing on their part is going to change reality.  

I think the majority of fans have already accepted it as canon and will be so happy that WoW is out that it won't matter.

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On 7/15/2018 at 6:57 PM, KingEuronGreyjoy said:

Jon would inherit winterfell. Not Catelyn’s kids. Ned didn’t want his kids to lose their inheritance. Jon would be the heir. I think he did it protect him from being killed by Catelyn.

How would he inherit Winterfell if he was a bastard in all these scenarios?

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On 7/15/2018 at 1:57 PM, Pikachu101 said:

I honestly think R+L=J not being true makes Ned a scumbag, there's no threat to Jon's life so why wasn't he honest? And if Ashara was his mother why didn't he leave Jon with the Daynes? He would have been a lot happier in a region that doesn't ostracise bastards.

For all we know, Ashara didn’t want him. 

As far as the question goes, I’ll just wait and see what answer GRRM gives us. But he doesn’t hesitate to defy the readers’ expectations, as shown with Ned’s execution and the Red Wedding.

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On 7/13/2018 at 5:10 PM, Megorova said:

There are also other options, aside from R+L=J and N+A=J. There's also:

Brandon + Ashara

Brandon + Lyanna

Ned + Wylla

Ned + fisherman's daughter

Lyanna + Mance Rayder, etc.

Though R+L seems more likely, out of all of them, because that's where majority of clues, about Jon's parentage, point out to. 

Also, I think, that when GRRM will finally manage to publish TWOW, people will be too happy, to complain about minor stuff like that. Who cares, who were Jon's parents, if we don't even know, whether Jon is still alive, or will return into the plot in some other way (for example warged into Ghost) <- to find out the answear to this question, will be more important, than "?+?=J". 

Most of those are not options at all, between having no textual basis for some of those relationships, and timelines making some of them impossible anyways. And it is highly unlikely that GRRM had Ned or Lord Godric explicitly reveal the identity of Jon's mother.

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22 hours ago, btfu806 said:

I think R+L=J (or any variant) is just a red haring. I always thought that somebody+L=J was pretty obvious to the reader, that GRRM really wanted us to think Lyanna was Jon's actual mother.

If it was a Red Herring, it would be explicitly stated in the text. Someone would say "Jon is actually the son of Lyanna, and maybe Rhaegar". But no one says that... GRRM has not shown us it, to then catch us out with something different. No one ever suggests Lyanna could be Jon's mother, just like no one ever suggests Ned isn't his father. The actual Red Herrings are Wylla, Ashara, and the Fisherman's daughter. They're the ones that are explicitly stated as being Jon's mother. 

R+L=J is not obvious to an isolated reader... it's obvious when we've all had decades to read and reread the books, and read fan theories, and collections of evidence in favour for the theory, and the like. 

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On 7/13/2018 at 5:36 PM, Pikachu101 said:

I don't think so, yes he made it a bit too obvious in the first book but that was only because asoiaf was intended to be a trilogy. 

There's an unanimous agreement that R+L=J is most likely true, what has fans debating is the purpose of Jon's existence. Personally I think Rhaegar expected a girl, whilst others believe he changed his mind about Aegon and decided Lyanna's son was the PTWP. That being said I'll be super pissed if he turns it into some kind of star crossed lovers bs like the show did.

I really don't want N+A=J to be true because then Ned's just a cruel asshole who made his son's life miserable for no reason. 

I disagree that the first book made it obvious, and I find that most people read about it long after it had been deduced, rather than deduced it themselves, especially from the first book alone.

I am not sure what the show did, which you shouldn't be discussing in this forum, as the rules state. But the idea of a romance, whether one sided or whatever the circumstances, is explicitly part of the Targaryen narrative in the books, as early as Daenerys's first chapter in AGOT.

"Her brother Rhaegar battling the Usurper in the bloody waters of the Trident and dying for the woman he loved." (AGOT - Daenerys I)

"Rhaegar had died for the woman he loved." (AGOT - Daenerys VIII)

"The singers would have us believe it was all Rhaegar and Robert struggling in the stream for a woman both of them claimed to love, but I assure you, other men were fighting too, and I was one." (AFFC - Brienne VI)

"If he loved you, he would come and carry you off at swordpoint, as Rhaegar carried off his northern girl, the girl in her insisted, but the queen knew that was folly." (ADWD - Daenerys VII)

"Prince Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna, and thousands died for it." (ADWD - The Kingbreaker)

We should obviously be skeptical that it is as cut and dry as the Targaryen "love" narrative that is introduced in the first Daenerys chapter of the first book, just as we should be skeptical about the Baratheon "rape" narrative introduced soon after in the second Eddard chapter of the first book. But the point is that the "love" angle is there in the books.

Rhaegar seems to have at one point been plotting to restrict his father, a plot which seems to have been thwarted in part thanks to Varys informing Aerys of his intentions, leading to Aerys's attendance at Harrenhal.

That is, unless getting Aerys to attend Harrenhal and reveal his descent to the realm was part of Rhaegar's plan, in which case Varys was either knowingly or unknowingly acting on Rhaegar's behalf when he informed Aerys of Rhaegar's Harrenhal intentions.

Whatever the case, Rhaegar was obviously not so obsessed with the prophetic and mystical as to be oblivious about politics. Yet, he still did what he did, both at Harrenhal and in kidnapping Lyanna, and couldn't have been so clueless as to think there would be no consequences.

The prophecy angle makes Rhaegar so determined to fulfill prophecy that he disregards any possible consequences in his attempts to fulfill it. I don't buy that, although I can see him trying to attach prophetic significance to his feelings for Lyanna after he had already become impressed by her, if not fallen for her.

I am also not entirely sure I buy the angle that Rhaegar was in love with Lyanna when he named her queen of love and beauty, though I am not against the idea that it developed at some point. I think he crowned her queen and love and beauty only as a result of seeing/finding out what she did earlier at Harrenhal.

What I am quite certain of, is that Rhaegar's crowning Lyanna at Harrenhal was, however unintentionally, responsible for turning Aerys's suspicions toward Lord Rickard and House Stark, at a time when he had already descended into madness and burning traitors, was already going back and forth on whether his son was plotting against him, and was being advised by his closest advisers that his son was indeed plotting against him, and that this was proof that he was courting House Stark to his cause.

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