Tyrion Trickery

[John Suburbs]

I've always been bothered by Tyrion's plan to find Cersei's informant on the small council using Myrcella's betrothal as bait. Pycelle and Littlefinger are pretty straightforward, since whichever story gets back to Cersei will reveal the culprit. But with Varys, I'm assuming that Tyrion would think that Varys has already heard what he told P&L, so he lays out the whole plan to him and then says to himself "Three", as in Varys is the third one to be ensnared. But is he really?

I'm assuming that Tyrion is thinking that if neither the Dorne nor the Vale story gets back to Cersei, or if Cersei ends up gloating that Tyrion's pathetic little plan failed, then he would know that Varys spilled the beans. But how could he (Tyrion) know that both Pycelle and Petyr didn't bring their respective stories to Cersei independently and she figured out what was going on herself? And does he honestly think that Varys does not realize what Tyrion is up to?

Or do I have it wrong and Varys was ensnared in some other way?

[Hugorfonics]

I dont think he cares what Varys knows. Tyrion knew he had to make an alliance with a great house and suspected that one of his advisors was a pawn of his sisters. This way he figured it all out.

[MostlyMoody]

He correctly assumes that Varys will know what he told Pycelle and Littlefinger.
The trick is that Varys' birds could have only heard the Myrcella/Robin proposal, because Tyrion talks about it with Littlefinger.
The only thing the birds could hear from his conversation with Pycelle is that he is 'sending a letter of utmost importance to Dorne'.

Varys falls for the trick as he says 'You couldn't possibly marry off Myrcella to both Robin and Trystane', so he assumes that the letter is offering Tommen as a ward for Martells.

So here is how Tyrion would figure out the informant:

1) Cersei thinks Myrcella will be married to Robin - Littlefinger is the informant.

2) Cersei thinks Myrcella will be married to Trystane - Pycelle is the informant.

3) Cersei thinks Tommen will be sent to Martells as a ward - Varys is the informant,

In all scenarios, Littlefinger is pissed.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I dont think he cares what Varys knows. Tyrion knew he had to make an alliance with a great house and suspected that one of his advisors was a pawn of his sisters. This way he figured it all out.

Agreed. But after he sets up Pycelle, Tyrion thinks to himself "One." Then after Littlefinger, he thinks "Two." And then after his convo with Varys, he thinks "Three", as if Varys is caught in some trap as well. But it seems like Varys' trap is pretty obvious, especially considering Tyrion has just admitted to setting up Pycelle and Petyr. So, in what way is Varys trapped, according to Tyrion's thinking?

 

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, MostlyMoody said:

He correctly assumes that Varys will know what he told Pycelle and Littlefinger.
The trick is that Varys' birds could have only heard the Myrcella/Robin proposal, because Tyrion talks about it with Littlefinger.
The only thing the birds could hear from his conversation with Pycelle is that he is 'sending a letter of utmost importance to Dorne'.

Varys falls for the trick as he says 'You couldn't possibly marry off Myrcella to both Robin and Trystane', so he assumes that the letter is offering Tommen as a ward for Martells.

So here is how Tyrion would figure out the informant:

1) Cersei thinks Myrcella will be married to Robin - Littlefinger is the informant.

2) Cersei thinks Myrcella will be married to Trystane - Pycelle is the informant.

3) Cersei thinks Tommen will be sent to Martells as a ward - Varys is the informant,

In all scenarios, Littlefinger is pissed.

Right, that makes sense. How could I have missed that? Varys even says as much. That's why Tyrion never tells Pycelle directly what was in the letter, so Varys can only guess.

Thanks, and this is probably why Varys seems to gain more respect for Tyrion after Pycelle is taken into custody, since he realizes how effectively he was played.

[MostlyMoody]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Right, that makes sense. How could I have missed that? Varys even says as much. That's why Tyrion never tells Pycelle directly what was in the letter, so Varys can only guess.

Thanks, and this is probably why Varys seems to gain more respect for Tyrion after Pycelle is taken into custody, since he realizes how effectively he was played.

Yeah, I had to reread that chapter myself to understand his exact plan before I posted. On my first read I just assumed Tyrion had a good plan and it worked =D

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, MostlyMoody said:

Yeah, I had to reread that chapter myself to understand his exact plan before I posted. On my first read I just assumed Tyrion had a good plan and it worked =D

Well, now that I've thought about it, it still doesn't add up. At the every end of the chapter:

Quote

"And if her Grace were to discover your intentions before your plans are ripe?"

"Why," he said. "then I would know the man who told her to be my certain enemy." And when Varys giggled, he thought, Three.

So basically, Tyrion is telling Varys point blank that if Cersei learns of this supposed Tommen plan, then Varys is the informant. So why would Tyrion then expect Varys to tell Cersei anything? I'm sure he does not think Varys is that stupid.

So in the end, I go back to my original supposition and say that the real trap for Varys was that if Cersei says nothing to Tyrion, then she will know that the whole thing was an attempt by Tyrion just to reveal her spies (even though the Dornish plan was, in fact, real), and she could only have come by that information through Varys.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎7‎/‎21‎/‎2018 at 2:37 PM, MostlyMoody said:

Yeah, I had to reread that chapter myself to understand his exact plan before I posted. On my first read I just assumed Tyrion had a good plan and it worked =D

Plus, another question pops up: since Tyrion knows that Varys is aware that Littlefinger is setting up the match between Myrcella and Sweetrobin, then suppose that is the story that makes it to Cersei's ears. In that case, how is Tyrion to know whether Littlefinger or Varys is the informant?

 

[Rufus Snow]

On 7/22/2018 at 5:25 PM, John Suburbs said:

Well, now that I've thought about it, it still doesn't add up. At the every end of the chapter:

So basically, Tyrion is telling Varys point blank that if Cersei learns of this supposed Tommen plan, then Varys is the informant. So why would Tyrion then expect Varys to tell Cersei anything? I'm sure he does not think Varys is that stupid.

So in the end, I go back to my original supposition and say that the real trap for Varys was that if Cersei says nothing to Tyrion, then she will know that the whole thing was an attempt by Tyrion just to reveal her spies (even though the Dornish plan was, in fact, real), and she could only have come by that information through Varys. 

I've mulled this one over a few times, as well. However, I've come to the conclusion that Cersei would only say nothing in the case where she was told nothing.

I think Tyrion meant " I would know the man who told her to be my certain enemy " to be taken as a threat by Varys personally, not as a clue that he could tell one spy from another. As Tyrion has laid it out to Varys, there is only one 'plot'. Varys has come to Tyrion to say 'I know what you're doing', and Tyrion's reply is 'If you tell anyone, we're going to fall out'.

However, Tyrion knows he can tell the spies apart depending on the story told; Varys will think that Tyrion CANNOT tell who the spy is because there is only the one plot to betray, so he, Varys, will not be 'exposed' as Tyrion's enemy even if he did tell Cersei. Varys would simply say it was one of the others, not knowing that Tyrion has already tipped the scales. Tyrion is relying on Varys thnking he's safe even if he does tell.

So in short, Varys is trapped by believing there was ONE big secret (Myrcella to Vale, Tommen to Dorne, council seat and Gregor's Head etc). If he reveals anything, he will reveal all, because he wouldn't realise there was anything to gain from holding anything back - but Tommen's destiny according to varys is a lie, so an absolute clincher if Varys attempts to blame either of the others.

Of course, it's possible all three men might squeak to Cersei in which case it gets really complicated

Personally, I decided that Pycelle was the spy when I saw he released 'the' raven with the letter to Dorne. He wasn't smart enough to send out two birds even as he was retaining one copy of the letter to read....

[Giant Ice Spider]

35 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Of course, it's possible all three men might squeak to Cersei in which case it gets really complicated

That's a good point. And if, say, Varys and Littlefinger tattled, how would Tyrion know Littlefinger tattled at all?

The plan was ingenious, I will give Tyrion (or really GRRM, but you know what I mean) credit where credit's due, but it does definitely have flaws. I suppose Tyrion was working on the assumption (which is always dumb) that only one small council member was a traitor.

[Canon Claude]

1 hour ago, Giant Ice Spider said:

That's a good point. And if, say, Varys and Littlefinger tattled, how would Tyrion know Littlefinger tattled at all?

The plan was ingenious, I will give Tyrion (or really GRRM, but you know what I mean) credit where credit's due, but it does definitely have flaws. I suppose Tyrion was working on the assumption (which is always dumb) that only one small council member was a traitor.

They’re all treacherous, it’s just a matter of which one owes allegiance to Cersei, since none of those three would ever work together on something, and Tyrion knows that.

[John Suburbs]

6 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

I've mulled this one over a few times, as well. However, I've come to the conclusion that Cersei would only say nothing in the case where she was told nothing.

I think Tyrion meant " I would know the man who told her to be my certain enemy " to be taken as a threat by Varys personally, not as a clue that he could tell one spy from another. As Tyrion has laid it out to Varys, there is only one 'plot'. Varys has come to Tyrion to say 'I know what you're doing', and Tyrion's reply is 'If you tell anyone, we're going to fall out'.

However, Tyrion knows he can tell the spies apart depending on the story told; Varys will think that Tyrion CANNOT tell who the spy is because there is only the one plot to betray, so he, Varys, will not be 'exposed' as Tyrion's enemy even if he did tell Cersei. Varys would simply say it was one of the others, not knowing that Tyrion has already tipped the scales. Tyrion is relying on Varys thnking he's safe even if he does tell.

So in short, Varys is trapped by believing there was ONE big secret (Myrcella to Vale, Tommen to Dorne, council seat and Gregor's Head etc). If he reveals anything, he will reveal all, because he wouldn't realise there was anything to gain from holding anything back - but Tommen's destiny according to varys is a lie, so an absolute clincher if Varys attempts to blame either of the others.

Of course, it's possible all three men might squeak to Cersei in which case it gets really complicated

Personally, I decided that Pycelle was the spy when I saw he released 'the' raven with the letter to Dorne. He wasn't smart enough to send out two birds even as he was retaining one copy of the letter to read....

LOL, this is making my brain hurt. I guess I could see it this way, but it depends on Varys behaving exactly as Tyrion expects -- that he will reveal the whole thing, not just a part of it.

But on the other hand, this might not be a bad assumption because Varys might reason that he could be in trouble with Cersei if he did not reveal all he knew; as in, how could his little birds be informed about the letter to Dorne but not the conversation with Littlefinger?

 

[Giant Ice Spider]

15 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

They’re all treacherous, it’s just a matter of which one owes allegiance to Cersei, since none of those three would ever work together on something, and Tyrion knows that.

Littlefinger & Varys work together a little bit when Cat shows up in KL