Does this Mummer's Dragon has us all fooled?

[lAPPYc]

26 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

JonCon has no problem with House Targaryen. That's why he feels obliged to help his (alleged) son. What Wihte Sword? Is fAegon trained by a Kingsguard? I missed that part. He is not a King.

1

Had, I said, not has. Dunk fought with Aerion Brightflame, and Jon Con was exiled by Aerys. Ser Rolly Duckfield now wears a white cloak. He will be King by the time he takes KL, which we know he will take with utmost certainty.

[Wolf of The Wall]

5 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

Had, I said, not has. Dunk fought with Aerion Brightflame, and Jon Con was exiled by Aerys. Ser Rolly Duckfield now wears a white cloak. He will be King by the time he takes KL, which we know he will take with utmost certainty.

In order to count these thing as parallels they have to happen first. Wearing a white cloak doesn't make someone a KG especially when the kingship of the person who bestowed that honour is just a mere claim. And taking a one city doesn't make someone a king. His subjects should proclaim him as their king and acknowledge him as their liege.

[lAPPYc]

4 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

Wearing a white cloak doesn't make someone a KG especially when the kingship of the person who bestowed that honour is just a mere claim.

 

slightly disagree, but okay, so when Aegon becomes a King then...

4 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

His subjects should proclaim him as their king and acknowledge him as their liege.

The Mummer's Dragon vision literally shows the crowd cheering at him. I think it's clear he will be becoming a King.

[Wolf of The Wall]

Just now, lAPPYc said:

Okay, so when Aegon becomes a King then...

 

4 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

In order to count these thing as parallels they have to happen first.

 

1 minute ago, lAPPYc said:

The Mummer's Dragon literally shows the crowd cheering at him. I think it's clear he will be becoming a King.

No. All we can deduce from that vision that he is celebrated. He may be celebrated as saviour of the city by the smallfolk due to contempt towards Lannisters but what about the rest of the realm he claims as his kingdom. It's a magic induced vision we can't take it more than what it is. It doesn't mean he will be acknowledged by the Lords of the Westeros.

[lAPPYc]

3 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

No. All we can deduce from that vision that he is celebrated. He may be celebrated as saviour of the city by the smallfolk due to contempt towards Lannisters but what about the rest of the realm he claims as his kingdom. It's a magic induced vision we can't take it more than what it is. It doesn't mean he will be acknowledged by the Lords of the Westeros.

3

Balon wasn't acknowledged King outside his islands, but he was still king. Robb wasn't acknowledged King outside his two kingdoms, but he was still king. At a point, Joffrey didn't have the support of his own smallfolk, and literally only the Westerlands follwed him, but he was still king. Stannis has no support, he is still a king. Even if he has only the support of KL people, why can't he be the King of KL? That's more people that were supporting Stannis when he was at the Wall.

None of this, also, prevent him from hatching into a dragon. Prince Baelor was a dragon who was still a prince.

[Wolf of The Wall]

4 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

Balon wasn't acknowledged King outside his islands, but he was still king. Robb wasn't acknowledged King outside his two kingdoms, but he was still king. At a point, Joffrey didn't have the support of his own smallfolk, and literally only the Westerlands follwed him, but he was still king. Stannis has no support, he is still a king. Even if he has only the support of KL people, why can't he be the King of KL? That's more people that were supporting Stannis when he was at the Wall.

 

Balon, Robb, Joffrey had the support of their regions. Joffrey didn't had the support of smallfolk but Westerlands and Lords of Crownlands supported him. I didn't say fAegon has to have all of the Lords but he needs a significant support in order to be taken seriously.

And Stannis is a king only in name. I am saying this as fan of Stannis but we need to call a spade a spade.

13 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

None of this, also, prevent him from hatching into a dragon. Prince Baelor was a dragon who was still a prince.

He already think himself as a dragon. And I don't know if you noticed but those who think themselves as dragons are usually the wrong ones. 

"Daenerys is Prince Rhaegar's sister, but I am Rhaegar's son. I am the only dragon you need."

[lAPPYc]

2 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

Balon, Robb, Joffrey had the support of their regions. Joffrey didn't had the support of smallfolk but Westerlands and Lords of Crownlands supported him.I didn't say fAegon has to have all of the Lords but he needs a significant support in order to be taken seriously.

2

KL has half a million residents, that's a significant support. He took a huge city, that needed outside support. That adds even more support. I'm not even sure how a scenario will arise where Aegon won't be a king when he takes KL. This is the first time I've encountered this idea.

11 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

I didn't say fAegon has to have all of the Lords but he needs a significant support in order to be taken seriously.

You think people don't take Stannis seriously?

8 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

And Stannis is a king only in name. I am saying this as fan of Stannis but we need to call a spade a spade.

What's wrong with being King only in the name? I'm asking this as a fan of Stannis. Does it impede him from being King in practice? That is to say, conquer the realm?

6 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

And I don't know if you noticed but those who think themselves as dragons are usually the wrong ones.

I'm saying he is the wrong one. He thinks he is a dragon, and he is, in fact, a Mummer's Dragon. But I'm arguing that he can be a real dragon. Moreover, I'm sure Aegon V thought of himself as a dragon before he hatched, and he wasn't a wrong one.

[Wolf of The Wall]

10 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

KL has half a million residents, that's a significant support.

I am talking about political support. Smallfolk's support is nothing. They cheer you when their lord told them so and carve you bloody when their lord said so.

 

12 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

You think people don't take Stannis seriously?

By Lannisters yes after this point I don't think they take him seriously. 

By Boltons no but I think they take him seriously but not because of Stannis' power but because Roose is not sure of his own supporters.

15 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

What's wrong with being King only in the name? I'm asking this as a fan of Stannis. Does it impede him from being King in practice? That is to say, conquer the realm?

Conquer with what. What is conquering? If politically important people doesn't support you, you can't hold power. Otherwise Aegon the Conqueror would've done with Dorne in first try.

 

19 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

I'm saying he is the wrong one. He thinks he is a dragon, and he is, in fact, a Mummer's Dragon. But I'm arguing that he can be a real dragon. Moreover, I'm sure Aegon V thought of himself as a dragon before he hatched, and he wasn't a wrong one.

This part is subjective man believe what you want to believe. My entire point is I don't see what you see. You don't have to convince me.

[lAPPYc]

17 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

Otherwise Aegon the Conqueror would've done with Dorne in first try.

Aegon the Conqueror never had any support in Dorne, not of smallfolk, nor political.

17 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

I am talking about political support. Smallfolk's support is nothing.

We're talking about the title of King, and his powers and meanings. Smallfolk support does mean something. Hell, I don't think even that much is needed, since Stannis has none of them but he is still a King. And I did talk the bit about Aegon needing outside support to actually conquer KL in the first place. I simply cannot imagine a scenario where Aegon doesn't have the support of at least Dorne before he takes KL, not to mention 'friends in the Reach' and the conquered Stormlands (That is, if he only directly goes to KL after Stormlands).

17 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

By Lannisters yes after this point I don't think they take him seriously. 

By Boltons no but I think they take him seriously but not because of Stannis' power but because Roose is not sure of his own supporters.

There are a shitload of other people in Westeros. Davos would never have made it past Sisterton if people didn't take Stannis seriously.

17 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

You don't have to convince me.

Frankly, I don't think anyone, can convince you, bro. Your arguments about the Kingship, imho, are simply ludicrous and you are only making them only to find any excuse to not change your convictions from impossible to even a small benefit of the doubt.

[Wolf of The Wall]

3 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

Your arguments about the Kingship, imho, are simply ludicrous and you are only making them only to find any excuse to not change your convictions from impossible to even a small benefit of the doubt.

And your arguments about fAegon's inevitable hatcing is not? Even though there is no indication whatsoever in the books for that. You shoehorn Egg's hatching into fAegon's story. Many people (including me) refer to him as fAegon because we think he is not the person he claims to be. And you find a way out of this with saying: "Him not being a real Targaryen doesn't mean he won't be a real dragon". I believe eventually he will met with his demise. I don't want this to happen mind you. I just think that's what's going to happen. And that's my opinion. 

Why so salty?

[Only 89 selfies today]

On 7/21/2018 at 4:18 PM, Loose Bolt said:

How much Valyrian blood Nettles (rider of Sheepsteeler) had ?

Nettles?  Probably no Targaryen blood specifically.  Valyrian blood in general?  Who knows.  But Sheepstealer was not a Targaryen dragon.  He was already living on Dragonstone when Lord Aenar Targaryen arrived with his family.  Anyone with enough Valyrian genes to be detected by the dragon might have a chance to bond with Sheepstealer.

[chrisdaw]

It is really really simple. So simple. Aegon freshly back from the dead rolls into Westeros blowing kisses and kicking ass, takes KL, becomes king, everyone loves him.

Then along comes the Mad King's daughter with a foreign legion to war with their beloved king and murder him over some mumblings about his blood line, as if anyone other than Dany care. So everyone hates Dany.

That's why Aegon exists, he is a cornerstone in Dany's arc.

[lAPPYc]

17 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

It is really really simple. So simple. Aegon freshly back from the dead rolls into Westeros blowing kisses and kicking ass, takes KL, becomes king, everyone loves him.

Then along comes the Mad King's daughter with a foreign legion to war with their beloved king and murder him over some mumblings about his blood line, as if anyone other than Dany care. So everyone hates Dany.

That's why Aegon exists, he is a cornerstone in Dany's arc.

Not sure what your point is, since this post wasn't about whether Aegon will/will not fight Daenerys (your assumption of her killing him in order for people to hate her is unnecessary, since they will hate her just as much for bringing back dragons, the dothraki, and starting another war in the midst of winter). The post was about how Aegon might be the third head of the dragon, and a historical precedent. It was about his hatching, which can happen in either scenarios of whether he fights her or not.

I'm of the opinion that he will hatch during his fights against her, since I'm proposing that he will hatch because of some of her actions. But to suppose that Aegon existed only to give Dany someone to fight is wrong. Tommen, Myrcella, Stannis, Jon, even Sansa as regent, could have fulfilled the purpose of a popular ruler that Dany will fight. Sure, you might say GRRM had other plans for them, but nothing in your argument of why Aegon was constructed says that that alone is his purpose. The story arc doesn't stop at the start of the fight. It carriers until the end, and might even go beyond.

[chrisdaw]

48 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

Not sure what your point is, since this post wasn't about whether Aegon will/will not fight Daenerys (your assumption of her killing him in order for people to hate her is unnecessary, since they will hate her just as much for bringing back dragons, the dothraki, and starting another war in the midst of winter). The post was about how Aegon might be the third head of the dragon, and a historical precedent. It was about his hatching, which can happen in either scenarios of whether he fights her or not.

I'm of the opinion that he will hatch during his fights against her, since I'm proposing that he will hatch because of some of her actions. But to suppose that Aegon existed only to give Dany someone to fight is wrong. Tommen, Myrcella, Stannis, Jon, even Sansa as regent, could have fulfilled the purpose of a popular ruler that Dany will fight. Sure, you might say GRRM had other plans for them, but nothing in your argument of why Aegon was constructed says that that alone is his purpose. The story arc doesn't stop at the start of the fight. It carriers until the end, and might even go beyond.

He's not a third head when he's going to die in the second act during the dance. That is his purpose and that is my point. No-one else can fill this role in Dany's arc because it is him being a fake Targaryen that is all important. She will unleash war and bleed the realm because Aegon's blood claim is false, so when she then finds out about Jon she must either bend the knee or prove it was never about the realm or bloodlines but her lust for power. The mad Targaryen, yes or no, the one thing she fears.

[lAPPYc]

2 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

He's not a third head when he's going to die in the second act during the dance.

This is my point. What makes you think he is gonna die during the second dance? Now there was the bit of foreshadowing given earlier about the dragon-puppet-show, but there are also the things I pointed out, Aegon V and VI's similarities, and the fact that they can hatch post birth, and GRRM's interesting word choice of the third head not necessarily being a Targaryen, a wording that introduces ambiguity the kind of which only exists for Aegon (since as said that Jon's parentage will be revealed by the end). Which of the foreshadowings you choose, the dragon-puppet one or the dragon hatching one, is up to you, of course, since I can't find any fault in it. But I just think another king breaking an alliance for a girl and losing his life out of it will be redundant. We already had that with Robb.

2 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

No-one else can fill this role in Dany's arc because it is him being a fake Targaryen that is all important. She will unleash war and bleed the realm because Aegon's blood claim is false, so when she then finds out about Jon she must either bend the knee or prove it was never about the realm or bloodlines but her lust for power.

Her answer to anybody's claim is going to be her blood. She is bringing war to the kingdom, and if someone asks her why she's doing it, she can't say it's because she has dragons and dothraki, she has to say it's because the throne is held by an usurper. The scene is same whether it's Aegon or any other claimant on the Iron Throne. As long as the ruler was good, the people will hate her.

And what's this with Jon claiming the throne from her? From where do we know this? And how do we know that people will believe the story of R+L=J when Dany can just claim him as another imposter/usurper? Why will dany believe such a story? How do we know that she will or won't? And why do they have to fight? Why not marry? Hell, how do we even know that both of them will be alive and in condition to demand the throne from each other?

Mind you, all this may happen, but none of it requires a dead Aegon. We don't even know if the Dance 2.0 won't happen between Dany and Jon. (The chances of Aegon getting a dragon are small, whereas Jon is a warg who has been foreshadowed to ride Viserion, and Dance is first and foremost a fight between dragonriders). 

[Lord Lannister]

I really think Qaithe is just jerking Dany's chain with her "prophecies" and "warnings." She may well have some insight into the future, given what she's come out with, but she's not presenting it in any way that is helpful to Dany. If her objective has to cripple Dany with self doubt and distrust of all those around her, throwing out vague premonitions of terrible things to come with a few morsels of truth scattered in for legitimacy would be the perfect way to go about it.  "Beware the mummer's dragon." The most threatening intention (f)Aegon's had towards Dany so far is wanting to impress her enough to get her to cross the ocean and join him as an equal.

[lAPPYc]

On 8/2/2018 at 10:18 AM, Lord Lannister said:

I really think Qaithe is just jerking Dany's chain with her "prophecies" and "warnings." She may well have some insight into the future, given what she's come out with, but she's not presenting it in any way that is helpful to Dany. If her objective has to cripple Dany with self doubt and distrust of all those around her, throwing out vague premonitions of terrible things to come with a few morsels of truth scattered in for legitimacy would be the perfect way to go about it.  "Beware the mummer's dragon." The most threatening intention (f)Aegon's had towards Dany so far is wanting to impress her enough to get her to cross the ocean and join him as an equal.

True. Nothing on the surface heralds a conflict between Dany and Aegon, but as you may know, the Mummer's Dragon prophecy doesn't only come from Quaith, but from the House of the Undying as well. We have no cause to think that Aegon is not a Mummer's Dragon, but all the reasons to be skeptical that that will be a problem.

The way I anticipate events, however, is that Dany is going to go deeper and deeper into the Targaryen sorcery. She already has motivations; Barristan's accounts of her brother's meddling with prophecies, The Song of Ice and Fire, so many prophecies surrounding her, and she might also be going to Valyria. Most of the fandom seems to think that Aegon is going to do something childish and stupid to draw Dany's ire, like marrying Arianne. But that simply fits into none of the character profiles or motivations for me. Dany has dragons, and a history of demolishing her enemies to dust. How in the name of R'hllor will two princelings be so stupid to make her mad?

I think, rather, that Dany will simply proclaim Aegon's status as the Mummer's Dragon, because she has come to believe the prophecies, and her dragons will then do the rest. For what reason Quaith is leading these two characters down this path, we may never know!

[Lord Lannister]

6 hours ago, lAPPYc said:

True. Nothing on the surface heralds a conflict between Dany and Aegon, but as you may know, the Mummer's Dragon prophecy doesn't only come from Quaith, but from the House of the Undying as well. We have no cause to think that Aegon is not a Mummer's Dragon, but all the reasons to be skeptical that that will be a problem.

The way I anticipate events, however, is that Dany is going to go deeper and deeper into the Targaryen sorcery. She already has motivations; Barristan's accounts of her brother's meddling with prophecies, The Song of Ice and Fire, so many prophecies surrounding her, and she might also be going to Valyria. Most of the fandom seems to think that Aegon is going to do something childish and stupid to draw Dany's ire, like marrying Arianne. But that simply fits into none of the character profiles or motivations for me. Dany has dragons, and a history of demolishing her enemies to dust. How in the name of R'hllor will two princelings be so stupid to make her mad?

I think, rather, that Dany will simply proclaim Aegon's status as the Mummer's Dragon, because she has come to believe the prophecies, and her dragons will then do the rest. For what reason Quaith is leading these two characters down this path, we may never know!

I think Dany's motivation for going after Aegon will be far more basic. She's done too much and come too far to cede or even share the Iron Throne with anyone. He's going after her throne, and she'll use this "prophecy" as a convenient excuse to denounce him as a fake. 

[lAPPYc]

8 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

I think Dany's motivation for going after Aegon will be far more basic. She's done too much and come too far to cede or even share the Iron Throne with anyone. He's going after her throne, and she'll use this "prophecy" as a convenient excuse to denounce him as a fake. 

The problem with this is, why not simply marry him? It will subvert an unnecessary war. Due to Jorah, Dany knows what the smallfolk care about. And it's not like she will be ceding the throne to him. She still has the dragons, she will be the more powerful of the pair.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 7/21/2018 at 4:18 PM, Loose Bolt said:

How much Valyrian blood Nettles (rider of Sheepsteeler) had ?

We do not know.