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Werthead

UK Politics: This Country is Going to the Moggs

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18 months ago, I was very much against a second referendum (whilst bitching about the result), but with all the misinformation and, quite honestly, the lack of anything representing progress for the last 18 months, it really would get my approval now, notnthat I think the needle willmhave changed much; people just don't like admitting that they were wrong, and really do seem to prefer jumping off a cliff instead

Edited by Which Tyler

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On 9/15/2018 at 7:21 PM, Werthead said:

I think this week did a lot of damage to the hard Brexiteers. They were expected to make a serious challenge, but instead they half-arsed it. They've put back a leadership challenge to April - after Brexit - because they were unable to muster the support needed to unseat her, and BoJo doesn't want to become PM ahead of Brexit so he is responsible for it. His plan is to come in afterwards and be able to explain any issues by saying he wasn't in charge and none of it is his fault. Then the hard Brexiteer alternative plan was laughed out of the room (even by some Brexit supporters) as being unworkable and naive.

Essentially this week was an admission by the hard Brexiteers that they don't have a viable, strong alternative to May's position. If May gets Brussels to agree to the Chequers plan (even in principle and a lot of the fine detail is watered down later on), that may solidify her position further and get her through until at least we see some kind of economic blowback after Brexit, at which point her position may become untenable.

That could all change a week on Tuesday, of course, but it does feel like this was a watershed moment that the Brexiteers failed to capitalise on, and have lost some momentum as a result.

It does feel like they've completely messed up their timing. If they were going to launch a coup they should have done it earlier, at least some of them seem to have belatedly come to the realisation that embarking on a lengthy leadership contest at the exact time the final negotiations are meant to be going on might not be a good look. They can probably depose May next year sometime, but that seems to defeat the purpose of them wanting to decide the Brexit deal themselves (not that they can apparently agree on what they want from a deal).

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Just now, williamjm said:

(not that they can apparently agree on what they want from a deal).

Oh, that's easy. Cake. Do they themselves believe in getting and eating it? That's a different question.

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Oh, that's easy. Cake. Do they themselves believe in getting and eating it? That's a different question.

I think the Brexiteer position at the moment is that they are convinced they can both get and eat cake, but can't agree on what type of cake it should be.

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28 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Oh, that's easy. Cake. Do they themselves believe in getting and eating it? That's a different question.

Specifically cake for themselves (and their pay-masters).

Everyone else can go whistle

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15 hours ago, williamjm said:

It does feel like they've completely messed up their timing. If they were going to launch a coup they should have done it earlier, at least some of them seem to have belatedly come to the realisation that embarking on a lengthy leadership contest at the exact time the final negotiations are meant to be going on might not be a good look. They can probably depose May next year sometime, but that seems to defeat the purpose of them wanting to decide the Brexit deal themselves (not that they can apparently agree on what they want from a deal).

I think the moment was the post Brexit election. Theresa May was a Remainer, they were never going to get the type of Brexit they wanted. Boris and Gove played an idiot's idea of Machiavellian politics and the shot was missed. 

Honestly, a lot of this now is just posturing. Boris knows he won't get "his Brexit", but the more fuss he makes, the more he can blame any future problems on things not being done his own way. 

Same with Sadiq, does he really expect a second referendum (sorry, people's vote, huge difference)? No, but he's Mayor of London, so he'd better make sure he's seen to be on the right side. 

If the economy stays stable she'll probably do a couple of years, though 2022 feels a long way away... any downturn and she doesn't have much protection.  

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6 hours ago, mankytoes said:

I think the moment was the post Brexit election. Theresa May was a Remainer, they were never going to get the type of Brexit they wanted. Boris and Gove played an idiot's idea of Machiavellian politics and the shot was missed.

I think you're right it was their best opportunity, in years to come they'll probably look back on it and wonder how they could possibly have put up Andrea Leadsom as their preferred candidate for such a crucial election.

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2 hours ago, williamjm said:

I think you're right it was their best opportunity, in years to come they'll probably look back on it and wonder how they could possibly have put up Andrea Leadsom as their preferred candidate for such a crucial election.

The thing is "they" were never really a group that were united on any other issue, I mean someone like Boris was very obviously only siding for career reasons. It's a natural thing to happen when you have a political party without many principles, people will always try to step on each other to get on top. I mean that's always a feature of political parties anyway, but especially for people like the Tories. 

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On the bigger picture.

I mean, we all know that chequers plan was dead on conception, and never gonna get accepted. However, I was really surprised that Tusk and Macron would shoot it down publicly the way they did. I thought they'd give May some sort of encouraging words on her way to the party conference.

Any prediction on what's gonna happen there, now?

And are now definately closer to the no-deal territory or will May find that magical solution to the Irish border, without magical thinking?

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19 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

On the bigger picture.

I mean, we all know that chequers plan was dead on conception, and never gonna get accepted. However, I was really surprised that Tusk and Macron would shoot it down publicly the way they did. I thought they'd give May some sort of encouraging words on her way to the party conference.

Any prediction on what's gonna happen there, now?

And are now definately closer to the no-deal territory or will May find that magical solution to the Irish border, without magical thinking?

Yeah, that was surprising. Possibly May burned some bridges with the Tory support for Hungary in the European Parliament. Certainly didn't do her any favours.

That leaves her in a very awkward place for conference. I can't see the Brexiteers mustering the support to oust her, but if they feel that Chequers is dead in the water, maybe that will shift some opinions against her. The Treasury allowing that a second referendum may be possible could also be a backstop (ha!) for the idea that a second referendum and the delay of Article 50 might be necessary in the New Year (I can see May doing that partially to piss off the Brexiteer wing if she realises there's no way out but to do that and resign).

Edited by Werthead

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43 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yeah, that was surprising. Possibly May burned some bridges with the Tory support for Hungary in the European Parliament. Certainly didn't do her any favours.

No, I don't think that's what broke the camel's back. Did she make any new friends with that stunt? No, most certainly not, but I think this was more seen for it was, a pretty desperate move.

 

This FT's Robert Preston's take on it. I think that in combination with May telling Varadkar, that there won't be a solution for the Irish border at the october meeting may indeed have been the final straw.

Like I said a few pages ago, we have effectively run out of grass to kick the Irish border issue into, and May has apparently tried to do just that.

Interesting times, indeed.

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5 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

Well, she's not learning any lessons anyway.

It's like she literally doesn't understand the concept of negotiation, let alone what the EU is and what leaving it means.

State of her. They're all the same though, hopelessly incompetent and dangerously detached from reality. It's infuriating and terrifying in equal parts.

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As a yank, I realize I know nothing. For instance I know that Ireland and northern island are separate thinggummies because (insert angry reasons and alcohol fueled ranting here).

but it would seem to this ignorant yank, if the fake border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is interfering with the tories beloved brexit, I dunno why not just give Northern Ireland back to Ireland? 

Seems like a simple straightforward way for the tories to get what the brexit they want at the relatively minor cost of finally giving up one of the last teensy relics of their extinct empire. 

 

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45 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

As a yank, I realize I know nothing. For instance I know that Ireland and northern island are separate thinggummies because (insert angry reasons and alcohol fueled ranting here).

but it would seem to this ignorant yank, if the fake border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is interfering with the tories beloved brexit, I dunno why not just give Northern Ireland back to Ireland? 

Seems like a simple straightforward way for the tories to get what the brexit they want at the relatively minor cost of finally giving up one of the last teensy relics of their extinct empire. 

 

The North, well, at least a majority in the North, considers themselves to be British citizens, not Irish. The (according to Brexiteers obsolete) Good Friday Agreement states, that the North can secede from the UK and join the ROI if decides so, after a referendum (mormont or werthead (or anybody else for that matter) can correct me if I am wrong on that account). But as long as the North does not do that, it's part of the UK. Add to that, the the Tory goverment had to make a deal with the Norhern Irish DUP to stay in power. Needless to say, that they will not particularly like the idea of not being part of the UK.

The EU's proposal is in a way just what you proposed. The North as part of the UK would get a special status and be treated as being part of the EU single market (like the ROI), with border checks being done in the Irish sea (or rather the ports), so the goods keep flowing on the Irish Island without a border or any kind of disruption, but the flow of goods from the UK to the North would be subject to checks. So that would at least economically allign Northern Ireland much closer to the Republic than to the UK (while still being part of the UK).

I have no idea how the average person on the British islands feels about this, but for the Unionists in Northern Ireland, this is a no-go. They'd bring down the Tory goverment in a heartbeat.

For the Republicans on the Irish Island waiting looks like the smartest move. If Brexit goes economically as bad for the UK as most predictions suggest, they can reasonably hope that the prospect of united Ireland becomes much more appealing. Shifts in the demographics seem to move the North slowly but surely into that direction anyway, but if a real Brexit horror show unfolds things can take on a dynamic of their own.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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lokisnow: the thing you have to understand is that the Unionist political parties, and their diehard voters, are much, much more keen on remaining British than the Brits are keen to keep them.

Some of the most rabid Brexit supporters have quietly floated the very idea you're suggesting, because their idea of Britishness stops at the Irish Sea (and pretty much at the Scottish border, too: some of them would be perfectly happy to sacrifice the Scots as well, if we were an obstacle to the Holy Brexit). But as AHNS points out, even if May herself were tempted by the idea, in practice she can't politically do it. Even suggesting it might be possible would be political suicide.

That's not to say she might not happily agree to a deal that would see NI eventually drift away from the mainland and into a closer economic union with the South. The Tories no longer seem particularly bothered if a referendum on Irish reunion were to happen at some indeterminate point in the future. Just so long as it doesn't happen now.

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26 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

The North, well, at least a majority in the North, considers themselves to be British citizens, not Irish. The (according to Brexiteers obsolete) Good Friday Agreement states, that the North can secede from the UK and join the ROI if decides so, after a referendum (mormont or werthead (or anybody else for that matter) can correct me if I am wrong on that account). But as long as the North does not do that, it's part of the UK. Add to that, the the Tory goverment had to make a deal with the Norhern Irish DUP to stay in power. Needless to say, that they will not particularly like the idea of not being part of the UK.

The EU's proposal is in a way just what you proposed. The North as part of the UK would get a special status and be treated as being part of the EU single market (like the ROI), with border checks being done in the Irish sea (or rather the ports), so the goods keep flowing on the Irish Island without a border or any kind of disruption, but the flow of goods from the UK to the North would be subject to checks. So that would at least economically allign Northern Ireland much closer to the Republic than to the UK (while still being part of the UK).

I have no idea how the average person on the British islands feels about this, but for the Unionists in Northern Ireland, this is a no-go. They'd bring down the Tory goverment in a heartbeat.

For the Republicans on the Irish Island waiting looks like the smartest move. If Brexit goes economically as bad for the UK as most predictions suggest, they can reasonably hope that the prospect of united Ireland becomes much more appealing. Shifts in the demographics seem to move the North slowly but surely into that direction anyway, but if a real Brexit horror show unfolds things can take on a dynamic of their own.

It's kind of mental, if you want to be a trader nation with a history of colonies aligned to different economic zones and then reject different economic zones.  

Take Gibraltar, in what efficient world should Gibraltar be aligned with the Uk's economic zone instead of Spain's ? Like import fish from Scotland because Spain .... 

The entire decision making  is fear driven at every stage. Fear fueled the referendum and fear will fuel the outcome of the negotiations.

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