Football: 3rd Season Meltdown

[Jeor]

38 minutes ago, Raja said:

It also seems like Kronke has full control of AFC after agreeing to a deal with Usmanov. 

Yes I just read that too. Maybe a good thing? Or maybe no difference. Kroenke was already majority shareholder so Usmanov didn't really have much say over the club anyway.

[Jordan La Cabra]

9 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Aside from Jorginho, Chelsea did pretty poor business in the past 12 months.  And even if Courtois and Hazard stay for now, they both appear to be running down their contracts. 

 

It's a tad early to say whether Jorginho is good business or not, too - he certainly didn't look that great in the Community Shield.

If Hazard's goal is to run down his contract and leave on a free, I think I'd be okay with that, as a fan. He is 27, at the moment; he turns 28 in January. With two seasons left to run on his contract, he'd be leaving in the season that he turns 30. You'd like to imagine that, by then, Chelsea may have seen his best years. Even if we were to keep him for this season and see him go for a cut price next summer, with only a year left on his contract, I think we'd have done quite well by having him at Chelsea for seven years.

 

[ljkeane]

You know how Liverpool fans are always complaining how unlucky we are and how lucky United are? Well, it's been scientifically proven we were right! United were the luckiest team in the Premier League last season and Liverpool were the unluckiest.

[Mark Antony]

It did feel like Liverpool had no decisions go their way in the Prem last year but we had a fair few calls go our way in CL so it kinda even’d out? Wish PL and CL would just start implementing VAR tbh. 

Joe Hart to Burnley

[Tinker]

2 hours ago, Jeor said:

Yes I just read that too. Maybe a good thing? Or maybe no difference. Kroenke was already majority shareholder so Usmanov didn't really have much say over the club anyway.

This is terrible for Arsenal fans. The club will be off the stock exchange and the AGM will be pointless. Also rumors a 550 million loan will be put on the club. 

[Consigliere]

12 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Considering Toby’s buyout clause drops to 25m in 2019, I’m surprised no-one is attempting a pre-purchase like we did for Keita.  

It's a completely different situation though. Liverpool agreed a fee with Leipzig to sign Keita the following season. Levy is not listening to £25m bids. He wants significantly more to sell this season and most clubs that would be interested aren't desperate for a CB and are happy to wait.

 

12 hours ago, polishgenius said:

I loathe the idea of losing Pogba anyway, obviously, but I'm reasonably sure even our hierarchy wouldn't sanction losing Pogba unless a replacement was already in place, no matter the money and snakery on offer. And for all his obvious discontent under Mourinho, I'm also fairly sure Pogba isn't going to throw a shit-fit if he's forced to stay- he's just got too many friends in the dressing room for that.

Yeah, it's highly unlikely that we sell now. But this is typical Barca tactics. They pulled the same shit with Coutinho by trying to lowball Liverpool and then proceeded to unsettle the player via his agent. They probably told Dembele's agent that he should go on strike as well to make the situation at Dortmund untenable and force a sale. They will spend the next 3 weeks trying to unsettle Pogba via Raiola and will do so again in January.

[Melphis Amekia]

I'm hearing reports Kovačić will join Chelsea on loan. If that's true, that'll be a really amazing deal for Chelsea.

[Jeor]

2 hours ago, Tinker said:

This is terrible for Arsenal fans. The club will be off the stock exchange and the AGM will be pointless. Also rumors a 550 million loan will be put on the club. 

Hmm, doesn't sound good. Any idea how Kroenke runs his American sports teams - are they debt-laden vehicles?

Arsenal already have some of the highest ticket prices going around, so hiking them will be a tough move politically, even if he has sole control.

[Consigliere]

42 minutes ago, Melphis Amekia said:

I'm hearing reports Kovačić will join Chelsea on loan. If that's true, that'll be a really amazing deal for Chelsea.

Also news that they are in talks to sign Fekir and are considering Kepa as a replacement for Courtois.

[Jordan La Cabra]

1 hour ago, Melphis Amekia said:

I'm hearing reports Kovačić will join Chelsea on loan. If that's true, that'll be a really amazing deal for Chelsea.

24 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

Also news that they are in talks to sign Fekir and are considering Kepa as a replacement for Courtois.

This is all so Chelsea. Do next to nothing from the end of the season until the final few days of the window, then desperately scan around Europe trying to get anyone that might be available, even if we had no link to them prior to the last days of the window.

Chelsea have no clear transfer strategy. They aim for players that are available, players that someone else scouted or players that warm the bench at rival 'big' clubs in Europe. 

We are fast becoming the worst run club in the 'top 6'.

[Tinker]

1 hour ago, Jeor said:

Hmm, doesn't sound good. Any idea how Kroenke runs his American sports teams - are they debt-laden vehicles?

Arsenal already have some of the highest ticket prices going around, so hiking them will be a tough move politically, even if he has sole control.

I dont think any of his clubs publish financial accounts for the public. But his NBA team just traded a first round pick to avoid paying luxury tax for the next season. The contracts traded only ran for one more year. 

[Iskaral Pust]

2 hours ago, Consigliere said:

It's a completely different situation though. Liverpool agreed a fee with Leipzig to sign Keita the following season. Levy is not listening to £25m bids. He wants significantly more to sell this season and most clubs that would be interested aren't desperate for a CB and are happy to wait.

It’s more similar than you realize.  Keita’s contract had an attractive buyout clause effective from 2018.  Lots of clubs knew this and were hovering, and looking for a deal priced at a premium above the clause in 2017, which would be lower than full market value.  Leipzig were refusing to sell in 2017 on a discounted basis that didn’t exist yet, and they were insisting on keeping him in the lie team for their CL campaign. 

So Liverpool offered a pre-buy for 2018 with a price of buyout clause plus a good premium, but still below market value.  That allowed Liverpool to lock in the player and not have to compete with Barcelona on wages or location in 2018.  And in the year since, that market value went even higher so now he looks a bargain.  But we’ll never know if we might have won the CL if he arrived last summer instead — that’s the opportunity cost of waiting.

Now Woodward is offering a price for Alderweireld that includes a premium over his buyout clause next year, but well below market value.  And Spurs don’t want to lose him unreplaced or to a rival.  

[ljkeane]

23 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

It’s more similar than you realize.  Keita’s contract had an attractive buyout clause effective from 2018.  Lots of clubs knew this and were hovering, and looking for a deal priced at a premium above the clause in 2017, which would be lower than full market value.  Leipzig were refusing to sell in 2017 on a discounted basis that didn’t exist yet, and they were insisting on keeping him in the lie team for their CL campaign. 

 

The difference is Keita was 22 at the time, it probably didn't make a huge amount of difference to how Liverpool were valuing him as a long term addition to their midfield to get him a year later.

Alderweireld's 29 putting off a purchase till he's 30 probably does reduce his value to United. On top of that they've already got players in Bailly and Lindelof who're supposed to be the long term solution at centre back, what they need is a short term fix to improve things while they develop.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

3 hours ago, Jeor said:

Hmm, doesn't sound good. Any idea how Kroenke runs his American sports teams - are they debt-laden vehicles?

 

Doesn't he treat them like cash cows, and he is happy as long as they make him profit? I think there was a piece about it in the guardian awhile ago. So if you hope he spends big and sends Arsenal on a title chase, that looks unlikely given his track record in the US.

 

[Mark Antony]

Chelsea rumored to be paying the hefty release clause for Spanish GK Kepa. Haven’t watched him much but he seems highly rated (at least much more so than Butland). 

The Kovacic loan rumors are pretty weird but adding him to Kante and Jorginho would be a boss midfield on paper.

The transfer window ending early in England should make this a crazy few days 

[Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Now Woodward is offering a price for Alderweireld that includes a premium over his buyout clause next year, but well below market value.  And Spurs don’t want to lose him unreplaced or to a rival.  

Levy reportedly was demanding £75m for Alderweireld this window which is hardly below market value for a 29 year old player and is the reason why there has been no interest in him apart from United - more recent rumours are saying £60m which is still not below market value.

As far as Keita goes, his release clause was £48m and they did a deal with Liverpool where a premium would be paid according to where Leipzig finished in the league - a CL placing would have seen Liverpool pay £59m but since they finished 6th, Liverpool ended up paying just under £53m. 

It is a different situation primarily because Leipzig were not making unreasonable demands whereas Levy is demanding a fee substantially greater than what the release clause will be in a year - ages (and salary demands) of the two players are major factors as well and clubs that Alderweireld would be interested in joining are simply not that desperate for a CB and can afford to wait which is why we will not see a Keita type deal. 

[Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Mark Antony said:

Chelsea rumored to be paying the hefty release clause for Spanish GK Kepa. Haven’t watched him much but he seems highly rated (at least much more so than Butland). 

The Kovacic loan rumors are pretty weird but adding him to Kante and Jorginho would be a boss midfield on paper.

The transfer window ending early in England should make this a crazy few days 

It's a lot of money to pay for Kepa (record fee for a GK) but once Chelsea identified him as their prime target, they really had no choice. Athletic Bilbao simply do not negotiate for fees below the buyout amount.

If Kovacic heads out on loan then I'm guessing that would also put an end to any possibility of Modric leaving as well.

 

ETA. Di Marzio reporting that AC Milan have contacted Chelsea for Bakayoko.

[Iskaral Pust]

2 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

Levy reportedly was demanding £75m for Alderweireld this window which is hardly below market value for a 29 year old player and is the reason why there has been no interest in him apart from United - more recent rumours are saying £60m which is still not below market value.

As far as Keita goes, his release clause was £48m and they did a deal with Liverpool where a premium would be paid according to where Leipzig finished in the league - a CL placing would have seen Liverpool pay £59m but since they finished 6th, Liverpool ended up paying just under £53m. 

It is a different situation primarily because Leipzig were not making unreasonable demands whereas Levy is demanding a fee substantially greater than what the release clause will be in a year. Clubs that Alderweireld would be interested in joining are simply not that desperate for a CB and can afford to wait which is why we will not see a Keita type deal. 

Levy is reportedly demanding 75m (market value set for VVD and reportedly for Maguire) but Utd were offering only 35-40m, which is a moderate premium over the buyout of 25m.  29 isn't that old for a CB, not like a CM or forward.  Alderweireld is older than VVD or Maguire, but that is offset by the premium to sell to a rival for CL qualification.

Liverpool definitely got lucky that their premium over Keita's buyout came in lower than expected.

While there isn't a huge market for Alderweireld, Levy is rightly reluctant to strengthen a direct rival.  Spurs did really well with Davinson Sanchez last year, probably better than they expected.  So they have the luxury of not being desperate here.  They'd rather sell outside the PL (same with Utd and Martial), a fee of 35-40m wouldn't buy them much (they would need a new back-up CB and may need a back-up MF too).  Mina is available for 35m and Alderweireld is much, much better than him.  From Levy's POV, ignoring Utd's current bid represents a 10m loan fee to keep Alderweireld for another year while at the same time forcing a rival to panic buy lower quality (Mina) or at much higher price (Maguire), especially since Utd have internally generated a lot of pressure on themselves.

If I were Levy, I would not accept below 60m from Utd.  I might accept a 50m forward sale in 2019 from them.  I would probably accept 40m or better now from outside the PL.

[Philokles]

So Ligue 1 rights have expired on BT and will not be renewed. From a couple of years ago where the other four big leagues on UK TV - with a top quality review programme and Bundesliga highlights on free to air - to just one now, no highlights and barely any other competitions that don’t feature PL sides. Even Football League highlights kicked out onto some nonentity channel that still broadcasts in 4:3. That’s what pumping more and more money into the Premier League bubble, and the resultant need to pretend it is the be and end all of football, does.

[ljkeane]

3 hours ago, Consigliere said:

It's a lot of money to pay for Kepa (record fee for a GK) but once Chelsea identified him as their prime target, they really had no choice. Athletic Bilbao simply do not negotiate for fees below the buyout amount.

It's a little odd that they were supposedly priced out of getting Allison at £60 whatever million but they're going to pay £71 million for this Kepa. Perhaps it was down to a lack of leadership with it taking so long to get Sarri into the managers job.

 

3 hours ago, Philokles said:

 That’s what pumping more and more money into the Premier League bubble, and the resultant need to pretend it is the be and end all of football, does.

There are probably some other factors going into it. BT probably think they've reached the limits of their strategy of using BT Sport to attract customers to their internet service and Sky have a potential takeover to think about so they're both reluctant to spend too much money on stuff that isn't essential.