Whiskeyjack Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 20 hours ago, DMC said: the MLBTR arbitration estimates, which are usually incredibly accurate No they aren't. At least not in the world of arbitration. But probably good enough if you want to get a general sense (plus or minus 500k) of where somebody's salary will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferrum Aeternum Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 4 hours ago, Bronn Stone said: Adrian Beltre has retired and almost certainly will end up in the HoF. But I don't think he really belongs there. There haven't been many 3000 hit guys who seemed so second-tier for virtually all of their careers. But surviving 21 seasons adds up. Even if he only made 4 All-Star teams. There's a strong argument for him being top 5 all time at his position. The really solid career numbers (plus stellar play in the field) should get him in. ETA: Looking at his BR page, the guy should be a first ballot shoo-in. Top 25 all-time in a bunch of offensive categories, and 10th all-time in defensive WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myshkin Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Adrian Beltre is a beautiful human and an all-time great at third. He’s first ballot all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 On 11/20/2018 at 4:13 PM, Whiskeyjack said: No they aren't. At least not in the world of arbitration. Well, I know last year they were within $0.15 million of the Yankees' cumulative estimate, which I'd say is pretty damn accurate. On 11/21/2018 at 4:11 PM, Myshkin said: Adrian Beltre is a beautiful human and an all-time great at third. He’s first ballot all the way. Yeah I don't get the Beltre hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 hour ago, DMC said: Well, I know last year they were within $0.15 million of the Yankees' cumulative estimate, which I'd say is pretty damn accurate. There are some significant inaccuracies in there - missing Didi by 750k and Betances by 700k. Those are relatively large margins. Players go to hearing over that type of separation. Things just evened out overall, on the team level, in the particular case of the Yankees. Think the reality is that we're just looking at arbitration from different perspectives. The MLBTR projections are probably fine for somebody trying to estimate a team's payroll. But they are often way off the mark if you're looking at each individual player and his case, where a few hundred thousand dollars matters a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 7 hours ago, Whiskeyjack said: Think the reality is that we're just looking at arbitration from different perspectives. The MLBTR projections are probably fine for somebody trying to estimate a team's payroll. Sure I guess, but of course another way of saying that is on average - in the aggregate - their projections are pretty accurate. 8 hours ago, Whiskeyjack said: But they are often way off the mark if you're looking at each individual player and his case, where a few hundred thousand dollars matters a lot. Well, there's also the fact that larger salaries can obviously look like greater errors but actually be similar in terms of percentages, e.g. the error on Didi isn't that much (less than 10%) considering what he got, whereas the Betances inaccuracy is more significant (not to mention quite confounding considering the battle the Yanks and him had the year before - when he was coming off a much better season). Anyway, this is all conditional on what you consider "incredibly" (or "pretty" or whatever) accurate. For me, I don't consider Didi's to be a "significant" inaccuracy, but would for Betances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 hours ago, DMC said: Sure I guess, but of course another way of saying that is on average - in the aggregate - their projections are pretty accurate. Well, there's also the fact that larger salaries can obviously look like greater errors but actually be similar in terms of percentages, e.g. the error on Didi isn't that much (less than 10%) considering what he got, whereas the Betances inaccuracy is more significant (not to mention quite confounding considering the battle the Yanks and him had the year before - when he was coming off a much better season). Anyway, this is all conditional on what you consider "incredibly" (or "pretty" or whatever) accurate. For me, I don't consider Didi's to be a "significant" inaccuracy, but would for Betances. Larger salaries aren't really relevant, because the market for each player isn't starting from zero. There's a higher floor in each case. In Didi's case, you can't measure accuracy by taking 750k out of 8.25 million and saying that it was off by less than 10%. That's ignoring the fact that the range of reasonable outcomes in Didi's case was basically between 8 and 9 million. Missing by 750k is pretty big in that context. Like I said before - that's the type of separation that can lead to a hearing. That may not be very important in the world of statistics, but it matters a lot in salary arbitration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Whiskeyjack said: Like I said before - that's the type of separation that can lead to a hearing. That may not be very important in the world of statistics, but it matters a lot in salary arbitration. Except in Didi's case it didn't go to a hearing - he took it. There's a lot of factors for why cases go to a hearing, but you have yet to provide a basis for why someone thinks he's being lowballed by 15% at $3 million is less likely to go to a hearing than someone that thinks they're being lowballed by 15% at $8 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, DMC said: Except in Didi's case it didn't go to a hearing - he took it. There's a lot of factors for why cases go to a hearing, but you have yet to provide a basis for why someone thinks he's being lowballed by 15% at $3 million is less likely to go to a hearing than someone that thinks they're being lowballed by 15% at $8 million. You're missing the point. I'm not saying Didi was lowballed. I'm saying that he took 8.25 million because he likely felt that was a fair settlement as determined by his market/comps, and the MLBTR projection was therefore incorrect by 750k. My comment that players go to hearing over a difference of 750k was just to illustrate that it's a huge amount in salary arbitration. You can't say that 750k is negligible for a player earning 8+ million, because in many cases the entire battle is over that 750k (or often a smaller amount). If you have 750k of separation, you aren't getting a deal done And again, if you want to argue its different for somebody earning a higher salary - that's wrong, as I explained above. We're not talking about a 750k error out 8.25 million. We're talking about a 750k error out of a much smaller range of possible outcomes. Also, teams and players don't analyze offers based on percentages. They analyze them based on the actual dollar amounts, and within the context of the market, the comps, and the parameters of the salary range being discussed. Lets say a player feels the evidence supports a salary of 9 million, and he also knows the worst he's ever going to get is 8 million based on the comps and his negotiations with the club (i.e. in a hearing, they aren't going to file below 8 million). If the team's final offer is 8.25, he's rejecting it and going to a hearing, even if it is "only" 8% away from the 9 million that he views to be his fair value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said: And again, if you want to argue its different for somebody earning a higher salary - that's wrong, as I explained above. We're not talking about a 750k error out 8.25 million. We're talking about a 750k error out of a much smaller range of possible outcomes. Again, I don't know what you're basing it on that it's a smaller range of possible outcomes. 3 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said: Also, teams and players don't analyze offers based on percentages. Disagree with that. Well, players might not, but teams and agents certainly do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskeyjack Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, DMC said: Again, I don't know what you're basing it on that it's a smaller range of possible outcomes. Because there was no world where he was earning 3 million or 5 million or 7 million. After looking at the market, both sides could easily see that his worst case scenario was around 8 million. Salary arbitration isn't just picking random numbers out of a hat. It's based on evidence, in the form of comparable players. That evidence sets the parameters of the case, narrowing the relevant range significantly. 1 minute ago, DMC said: Disagree with that. Well, players might not, but teams and agents certainly do. No, they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said: That evidence sets the parameters of the case, narrowing the relevant range significantly. You're still not providing any reasoning for why this is different for someone making (or expecting to make) more compared to someone making less. Anyway this is conversation is going nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Can't believe Donaldson signed a pillow contract - in November. Granted, $23 million is a pretty big pillow, but he definitely lost the most money over the past year. Nice pickup for the Braves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferrum Aeternum Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 32 minutes ago, DMC said: Can't believe Donaldson signed a pillow contract - in November. Granted, $23 million is a pretty big pillow, but he definitely lost the most money over the past year. Nice pickup for the Braves. As a fan of the Braves, it's exactly the kind of deal I wanted to see them make this offseason. The team has spare cash and is built to win now with the addition of a few big pieces. I'd much rather have Donaldson on a 1-year deal than Machado (etc.) on a long term contract with a ton of dead money at the end. To your point, it is surprising he would go for a 1-year deal at this stage. He and his agent must be reasonably sure he can make a full rebound next year and leverage that into a long term sunset deal. I certainly hope that's the case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ferrum Aeternum said: To your point, it is surprising he would go for a 1-year deal at this stage. He and his agent must be reasonably sure he can make a full rebound next year and leverage that into a long term sunset deal. I certainly hope that's the case! Either that, or they're already reasonably sure he wasn't gonna get a better offer (it's probably a bit of both). Which may suggest the market is once again going to decidedly be a buyer's one for everyone outside the elite players (and relievers), just like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arch-MaesterPhilip Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Word on the street is Patrick Corbin is meeting with the Yankees tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 I think Corbin will be the first big name to sign. I hope it's with the Yanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arch-MaesterPhilip Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 10 hours ago, DMC said: I think Corbin will be the first big name to sign. I hope it's with the Yanks. Hopefully some progress is made towards that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramsay B. Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Corbin to the Nats. 6-$140. Boooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arch-MaesterPhilip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 hours ago, Ramsay B. said: Corbin to the Nats. 6-$140. Boooo I expect them to go hard after another pitcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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