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The Great Purple Wedding Irony: Tyrion Sabotaged His Own Trial


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2 minutes ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

What? When do we find this out? How do you figure out that Bloodraven was warging Summer in book 1, when the concept of warging and skinchanging isn't introduced in book 1? It isn't introduced until ACoK. What proof do you have that Bloodraven warged Summer? And how did he get the Catspaw to do what he did? Send him dreams? 

Read the link in my OP/ signature

3 minutes ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

No. His point is that Joffrey's death was made to look like an accident, otherwise he would have said "the use of the Strangler was to make it look like an accident". 

I disagree. Unless you have a transcript of GRRM's inner thoughts I'm going to say... No.

5 minutes ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Yes, but the question is "did Joffrey choke on pie, or was he poisoned". But it's a question that's not just for the reader, but for the characters, due to the POV nature of the work... we know what happened, but the characters in the story can still have doubts.

No, that's just not the question at all. We know 99% he was poisoned. And Jaime specifically questions the source of the poison, not if it was poison or choking.

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2 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

But he only didn't die because LF's plan failed because stupid Joffrey ate the pie.

So, it was a pretty crap plan (77 course meal, but Tyrion must eat his pie for it to work), based on speculations and predictions (Sansa would be married to Tyrion), based on the possibility that Sansa would become Heir (that did come to pass, but it certainly wasn't expected at the time the plan was initiated), which the Tyrells agreed too with no guarantee they'd actually get what they wanted (Sansa got smuggled away), and which the actual carrying out of risked losing the very prize they sought (Sansa was the patsy, with the poison in her hair, she could so easily have been found out and executed... why would the Tyrells risk the very thing they wanted like that?).

 

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Just now, Unacosamedarisa said:

So, it was a pretty crap plan (77 course meal, but Tyrion must eat his pie for it to work), based on speculations and predictions (Sansa would be married to Tyrion), based on the possibility that Sansa would become Heir (that did come to pass, but it certainly wasn't expected at the time the plan was initiated), which the Tyrells agreed too with no guarantee they'd actually get what they wanted (Sansa got smuggled away), and which the actual carrying out of risked losing the very prize they sought (Sansa was the patsy, with the poison in her hair, she could so easily have been found out and executed... why would the Tyrells risk the very thing they wanted like that?).

 

As I said before, we will have to agree to disagree on how good of a plan it was. Regardless, you can't use Tyrion's survival as evidence against said plan, because his survival went directly against the theorised plan.

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3 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I disagree. Unless you have a transcript of GRRM's inner thoughts I'm going to say... No.

Yet YOU claim that GRRM wants us to question this or that, or that the point he was trying to make wasn't that but was this instead, and that he didn't mean what he said but meant this instead... You have a transcript of GRRM's inner thoughts, do you? Didn't think so. Your entire "theory" is based on your interpretation of the KG investigation, and that it's meant to be ironic, rather than, say, it's meant to actually be pretty competent, but they choose the wrong suspect. 

2 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Regardless, you can't use Tyrion's survival as evidence against said plan, because his survival went directly against the theorised plan.

In a way, you can. Why would LF and Olenna have gone to so much trouble, for such an elaborate plan, that ran the risk of failing so badly in so many ways? LF and Olenna are smart players, I don't think they'd concoct and enact such a risky plan. 

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12 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Even if you discount the text we actually have Martin's answer. You know, he actually discussed it instead of saying, "keep reading" or any of his usual go-to replies when he doesn't want to give it all away. ;)

Aaaah, but here I disagree. See my post about the catspaw above. I think this actually is an example of a reply in which he doesn't want to give it all away. For instance, if he had said "keep reading" or any other statement with the slight implication that the presented narrative (wine) was false, we would all assume it was the pie, which would give away the game.

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1 minute ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Yet YOU claim that GRRM wants us to question this or that, or that the point he was trying to make wasn't that but was this instead, and that he didn't mean what he said but meant this instead... You have a transcript of GRRM's inner thoughts, do you? Didn't think so. Your entire "theory" is based on your interpretation of the KG investigation, and that it's meant to be ironic, rather than, say, it's meant to actually be pretty competent, but they choose the wrong suspect. 

No, I'm basing my conclusions on the text. Jaime asked the question "are you certain it was the wine", literally putting the question in our heads. You are speculating as to GRRM's choice of words in an interview.

3 minutes ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

In a way, you can. Why would LF and Olenna have gone to so much trouble, for such an elaborate plan, that ran the risk of failing so badly in so many ways? LF and Olenna are smart players, I don't think they'd concoct and enact such a risky plan. 

I think you entirely missed my point. You cited Tyrion being alive as a flaw in LF's plan to marry Sansa to someone new. But the whole point of this thread is that the plan was to kill Tyrion.

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13 hours ago, Prince of the North said:

I guess it truly is a testament to the sheer genius of ASOIAF that even after the author lays out exactly how and why (both within and outside the story) he crafted something people will still choose to disbelieve it in order to craft their own version instead.

But we can still be confronted with those moral questions and wrestle with them even if it turns out the pie was the poison all along.

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1 minute ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

No, I'm basing my conclusions on the text. Jaime asked the question "are you certain it was the wine", literally putting the question in our heads

That doesn't mean it wasn't the wine. It means Jaime is questioning whether it was the wine, because he doesn't believe Tyrion did it... he's looking for a hole in the sequence of events that paints Tyrion as guilty. Also in the text we have LF explaining the plan to Sansa, Dontos telling Sansa the hairnet was "justice for her father". 

6 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I think you entirely missed my point.

And you missed my point. The plan had a high chance of failing (Tyrion not eating his pie and so not dieing, or Sansa being found with the poison and dieing). I don't see LF and Olenna going through with such an elaborate plan with such a high chance of failure. Especially when there would have been so many other ways to kill Tyrion. 

9 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

You cited Tyrion being alive as a flaw in LF's plan to marry Sansa to someone new.

In response to someone saying "And if tyrion doesn t die LF has no use for sansa..."

Tyrion didn't die. LF is still keeping Sansa around. LF has a use for Sansa. Ergo, LF does have a use for Sansa, even though Tyrion didn't die. 

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1 hour ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

That doesn't mean it wasn't the wine. It means Jaime is questioning whether it was the wine, because he doesn't believe Tyrion did it... he's looking for a hole in the sequence of events that paints Tyrion as guilty. Also in the text we have LF explaining the plan to Sansa, Dontos telling Sansa the hairnet was "justice for her father". 

Yes, correct...

But my point is that GRRM literally put the question, "are you certain it was the wine" right there in the book, so it is probably a good idea for us readers to try to answer that question, because the comically stupid KG failed to do so. They never even brought up the pie, the obvious alternative source of poison to the wine.

Am I 40K Skeletons, as a reader, certain it was the wine? No I'm not. In fact, upon closer examination of the text, I lean heavily towards the pie.

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4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

This! I (infamously) apply the same logic to his claim that the mystery of who sent the catspaw to kill Bran would be resolved in book 3. I would argue you could figure it out as early as book one that whoever skinchanged Summer to kill the catspaw also sent the catspaw and planted the dagger. Later we find out it was probably BR. I certainly doubt it was Joffrey. So what was he supposed to say in an interview? "Oh, you should have figured it out already"? That would sort of give it away. So he has to be very careful about how he responds to these kinds of questions, and sometimes that requires him to be disingenuous or misleading. He doesn't outright lie as far as I know. He's not Varys :P

I don t remember the counter arguments, but the most logical and interesting theory that I have heard about the catspaw is that it was mance who send it.

He was there, he needed to lure the northern army away from the north (he knows that the wildlings have always been defeated by a the northern army), he could have heard robert talking about a cripple should be killed, he could have stollen the dagger to incriminate robert (telling the catspaw to leave the dagger inside bran)… 

It is pretty logical and simple...

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3 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Aaaah, but here I disagree. See my post about the catspaw above. I think this actually is an example of a reply in which he doesn't want to give it all away. For instance, if he had said "keep reading" or any other statement with the slight implication that the presented narrative (wine) was false, we would all assume it was the pie, which would give away the game.

Exactly!

If he wanted people to think that maybe LF is lying he wouldn t have LF be so clear in his speach.

So he can t be raising doubts about what is written during his interviews. For now he wants us to believe in what LF says so he won t give the game away in interviews…

 

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2 hours ago, divica said:

I don t remember the counter arguments, but the most logical and interesting theory that I have heard about the catspaw is that it was mance who send it.

He was there, he needed to lure the northern army away from the north (he knows that the wildlings have always been defeated by a the northern army), he could have heard robert talking about a cripple should be killed, he could have stollen the dagger to incriminate robert (telling the catspaw to leave the dagger inside bran)… 

It is pretty logical and simple...

Lol not to derail this thread with my much crazier theories but...

I do think Mance was involved. I think he set the library on fire (utilizing his pro climbing skills he bragged about later) and planted the bag of silver (which he explicitly said he brought south) while the catspaw went on a suicide mission (unwittingly).

The problem with the answer being anyone other than BR (or some other skinchanger but let's keep it simple for now and say BR) is that no one else could have planned for the assassination to fail (because it failed when Summer killed the guy), and that failure was necessary to leave behind the dagger as evidence, the dagger which directly caused the Wot5K. Now you could argue that the catspaw was going to kill Bran and leave the dagger behind, but then it would be an obvious plant, and that would be silly.

Other than that fact, yes Mance acting on his own would be logical and simple.

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2 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Lol not to derail this thread with my much crazier theories but...

I do think Mance was involved. I think he set the library on fire (utilizing his pro climbing skills he bragged about later) and planted the bag of silver (which he explicitly said he brought south) while the catspaw went on a suicide mission (unwittingly).

The problem with the answer being anyone other than BR (or some other skinchanger but let's keep it simple for now and say BR) is that no one else could have planned for the assassination to fail (because it failed when Summer killed the guy), and that failure was necessary to leave behind the dagger as evidence, the dagger which directly caused the Wot5K. Now you could argue that the catspaw was going to kill Bran and leave the dagger behind, but then it would be an obvious plant, and that would be silly.

Other than that fact, yes Mance acting on his own would be logical and simple.

actually, anybody that knows about wargs could predict that summer would eventually attack the catspaw.

Either before, during or after he attacked bran summer would attack and probably kill the catspaw. Mance is almost garanteed to have seen other direwolves north of the Wall and how they behave when their warg is in danger. There were 100k wildlings, some of them must have had direwolves...

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2 minutes ago, divica said:

actually, anybody that knows about wargs could predict that summer would eventually attack the catspaw.

Either before, during or after he attacked bran summer would attack and probably kill the catspaw. Mance is almost garanteed to have seen other direwolves north of the Wall and how they behave when their warg is in danger. There were 100k wildlings, some of them must have had direwolves...

A good counterargument, and honestly a much better one than everyone who responded to my original theory made :D

Based on the ADWD prologue, I am sure Mance ran into his fair share of wargs as King Beyond the Wall.

The main problem with this argument though is that Summer was nowhere near Bran and Bran couldn't have sensed the danger and passively summoned Summer because he was in a coma. And Mance, assuming he was spying on the situation in WF leading up to the failed assassination, would have known that Summer was being kept outside. So I'm not sure how Mance could have planned for Summer to kill the guy with any degree of confidence.

Beyond that though, I would recommend reading the theory linked in my signature. BR caused the Wot5K and lured Bran north, and the catspaw dying and leaving the dagger as fake evidence was just one small step in a very elaborate plan. If that wasn't the case I would be way less confident that it was BR.

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10 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

A good counterargument, and honestly a much better one than everyone who responded to my original theory made :D

Based on the ADWD prologue, I am sure Mance ran into his fair share of wargs as King Beyond the Wall.

The main problem with this argument though is that Summer was nowhere near Bran and Bran couldn't have sensed the danger and passively summoned Summer because he was in a coma. And Mance, assuming he was spying on the situation in WF leading up to the failed assassination, would have known that Summer was being kept outside. So I'm not sure how Mance could have planned for Summer to kill the guy with any degree of confidence.

Beyond that though, I would recommend reading the theory linked in my signature. BR caused the Wot5K and lured Bran north, and the catspaw dying and leaving the dagger as fake evidence was just one small step in a very elaborate plan. If that wasn't the case I would be way less confident that it was BR.

Even if summer was outside we have seen several instances where the direwolves can sense their wargs are in danger and attack without anyone telling them to do it.

It isn t too outside of the box to assume that all direwolves have these abilities and that mance has seen it beyond the Wall. So it is more of a matter of where summer will attack the catspaw than if he will attack the catspaw.

And I will read your theory later, but when people start looking into BR usualy he could be blamed for everything. So I tend to not like BR conspiracy theories...

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21 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

This is just made up. There's nothing to suggest Olenna was in charge of the pie being served. 

Cersei arranges the feast, and the wedding in general. Tryion says to Symeon Silvertongue

The Tyrells provided all the food, Lady O is the grandmother of the bride, and she is know to be a stickler and micromanager, particularly when it comes to food: "The cheese will be served when I want it served..."

If Lady O is intent on poisoning someone in this way, she would make it her business to arrange this one event and nobody would think anything of it because this is the kind of thing she is known for. There are a thousands guests waiting for pie so making sure the head table is served immediately and in an orderly fashion is only logical.

Honestly, do you expect Martin to simply give out every last detail in order to see through his mysteries? Until Lysa's breakdown at the moon door there was only the sketchiest hint that Littlefinger was involved in the Arryn murder. In hindsight, though, it was obvious. The same will be true for the Purple Wedding.

21 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

But how could they predict that Tyrion would be married to Sansa? Why start to plan Tyrion's death before the battle of the Blackwater? How could they know Tyrion would be married to Sansa, rather than, say, Lancel? 

First of all, at the time Sansa gets the hairnet there is no "they." There is only Littlefinger. As I pointed out before, there is no reason think Lady O is part of the plot this early on because otherwise she would have no reason to be confused about Joffrey, no reason to be planning to take Sansa to Highgarden, and frankly, no reason to even trust the man whose lie got her into this fix in the first place. Lady O did not sign on until Sansa became the last known living Stark, ready to plant a Lannister on the high seat in Winterfell.

So at the time the hairnet was delivered, all Littlefinger knows is that he is going to use the poison at the wedding to create a diversion to cover Sansa's escape, particularly from Varys' little birds. There is no reason for him to think Sansa will be married to anyone at this point. Remember, the only reason she ends up married to Tyrion is because LF informed Tywin of the Willas plan. If his notion all along was to kill Joffrey, then why should he be concerned about a plan to sneak Sansa to Highgarden after the wedding? By spilling the beans, all he did was turn a simple poisoning into a convoluted and risky plot to kill the king and frame Tyrion.

This is, in fact, a classic LF move: put the pieces in place even if you're not certain how they will be used. He had to find a secure way to hide the poison and make sure that it and Sansa were at the wedding. All the rest will be figured out later, perhaps even including the target for the poison. Maybe it would have been Joffrey, but why target the most watched person in the room? LF has also been shown to be a master manipulator of Joffrey, which makes him an extremely valuable asset when stirring up trouble in the realm. Meanwhile, Tyrion, whether he is married or not, is a clear and present danger to LF, since he is now in a position to expose all of his theft and embezzlement of the crown's gold. So I think Tyrion would have been the eventual target anyway. But if Sansa happened to be married to Lancel instead, then he would have gotten the poison.

22 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

No, she did not arrange the pie, or know which slice would get served to anyone. The pie is being prepared in the kitchens while the ceremonial pie is being cut, and then being brought out just after. Olenna isn't overseeing the serving people pick up the plates of pie, and ensuring the specific plate reaches Tyrion. Give me text that says otherwise. 

The text states that the pie is served within seconds of the cutting. Literally, it goes cut, applause, music, Joff twirls Margaery "merrily", and pie. They did not wait until the big pie was cut before bringing the individual servings all the way from the kitchens -- that would have taken several minutes and is a very inefficient way to do it given that there are a thousand people to be served. The only way the head table could have gotten pie so quickly is that they had to be standing by in the immediate area, most likely directly behind the head table. And who also happens to be standing right nearby just before the cutting? Why, Lady Olenna.

It's one of those connect-the-dots kind of things.

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12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The Tyrells provided all the food, Lady O is the grandmother of the bride, and she is know to be a stickler and micromanager, particularly when it comes to food: "The cheese will be served when I want it served..."

Yes, the cheese, I get it. But show me text that proves Lady O was in charge of the wedding, or the pie. I can give you text that shows Cersei was...

Quote

 

"My lady," said Shae wistfully. "Couldn't I come serve at table? I so want to see the pigeons fly out of the pie."

Sansa looked at her uncertainly. "The queen has chosen all the servers."

 

Quote

"My sweet sister has arranged the feast. Even if I could secure you this invitation, it might look queer."

12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

If Lady O is intent on poisoning someone in this way, she would make it her business to arrange this one event and nobody would think anything of it because this is the kind of thing she is known for.

No, she wouldn't. She'd keep as far away from that one event as possible... Do you not think it would be pretty suspicious if Lady O insisted on arranging the one part of the wedding feast that led to someone being poisoned and dying? Do you not perhaps think someone would question her insistence on managing that one part of the wedding? 

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8 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Actually, it would be super easy to predict Sansa would be betrothed/married to someone new, and they would plan on killing that person. And it was fairly predictable that person would be Tyrion, since he was the only Lannister available, but that's not a necessary prediction to put the plan in motion. They knew they were in the process of breaking her betrothal to Joffrey, and she is the key to the north assuming Robb loses the war and dies eventually.

But again, the only reason that Sansa is married to Tyrion is because LF informed Tywin of the plan to marry her to Willas. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what Tywin would do when he learned of this plan, and the only viable candidate is Tyrion, with Lancel as a remote possibility.

The question, however, is why would LF tell Tywin about any of this? The plan is to bring Sansa to Highgarden after the wedding. Why should that concern LF in the least? He is planning to take her at the wedding.

So all he ended up doing was turn a relatively simple poisoning plot in which he would have gotten Sansa free and clear into a convoluted and risky plot to poison the king and frame Tyrion in the hopes that nothing will interfere with his execution -- all for the sake of averting a potentiality that in no way interfered with his goals in the least. Does that sound like the all-wise, all-knowing master manipulator to you? This is supposedly the man who knows that a simple dwarf joust will lead to Tyrion handling the chalice and Joffrey placing it exactly where it needs to be exactly when it needs to be poisoned.

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2 hours ago, divica said:

Even if summer was outside we have seen several instances where the direwolves can sense their wargs are in danger and attack without anyone telling them to do it.

It isn t too outside of the box to assume that all direwolves have these abilities and that mance has seen it beyond the Wall. So it is more of a matter of where summer will attack the catspaw than if he will attack the catspaw.

And I will read your theory later, but when people start looking into BR usualy he could be blamed for everything. So I tend to not like BR conspiracy theories...

I am assuming that the direwolves ability depends on their warg being awake/conscious and so the wolf is made aware of the danger via their telepathic connection is my point about Bran being in a coma. But it's hard to say for sure. Summer saving Bran of his own volition is totally possible. But the dagger is just so important to the main plot I tend to think there is more of a conspiracy involved in planting it.

Lol fair warning, I blame BR for more things than probably anyone else on the forum

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