The Great Purple Wedding Irony: Tyrion Sabotaged His Own Trial

[The Fattest Leech]

3 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Lol yeah those are definitely better, but I'm biased towards the other 2 because I geek out over the mechanics of time travel. GRRM style time travel is the only paradox-free time travel I've ever heard of, and it provides such great fodder for writing about the struggle within the human heart.

I can only reply quickly because my time travel device (modem) is out of juice (is fucking up because Comcast never sent the replacement). 

3 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Also, This Tower of Ashes is one of the best examples of a GRRM ending turning the whole story on its head, on top of already being an amazing and heart wrenching story even before the ending.

I just re-read this one about two weeks ago. Eeegads this is a good little story. GRRM really shines when he writes his short stories, which in my opinion, is why the multiple POV’s work so well. Each chapter is a mini story. 

3 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

And let's not forget A Song For Lya, which also has a close Bran parallel in Robb. Actually now that I think about it, I never put 2 and 2 together before but:

  Reveal hidden contents

I bet they may absorb Meera into the weirnet like Lya as extra motivation for Bran to join. I always sort of thought they would kill Meera and that would help drive Bran to destroy the weirnet but oooo, now I'm picturing "Meera" reaching out to Bran begging him to join, and Bran will have to resist her for the sake of everyone else. He would not only have to kill himself and/or give up a second chance at life but destroy Meera's "soul" as well. OK, I'm officially adding that thought to how I think the ending will play out.

Your imagination knows zero, big fat goose eggs, nada limit. That’s great. I don’t always agree , but you definitely bring something to the board. 

Whew! Made it without a modem fail 

[Back door hodor]

I also am not convinced of this interpretation. All evidence and foreshadowing(the meeting with sansa, the hairnet, ser Dontos) points to the Tyrells as the culprit and Joff as the (intended)victim.

Tyrion makes little sense as the target, as Tywin, and to a lesser degree, Cersie, are the true obstacles to power.

The poison was in the wine, not the pie or cream, this is set up in cressan pov.

As to the supposed time difference between Cressan and Joff dying....

I propose that there is not one, and any difference we the readers perceive is due to the point of view from we receive the information. We witness Joffs death along with Tyrion, Cressans is his literal internal monologue as he is dying, any perceived difference in time can be attributed to this.

 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

11 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Your imagination knows zero, big fat goose eggs, nada limit. That’s great. I don’t always agree , but you definitely bring something to the board. 

I know of no greater compliment in this world 

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Tyrion doesn't give a fuck, and was ready to leave before the pie was served. Tyrion straight up insulted Joff at his own wedding... 

As has been pointed out numerous times before, there was no way to predict that Tyrion would get dumped with wine or that he would have to leave in order to change. Regardless, because this is the wedding pie, it would have sat there, undisturbed, until he returned and took his one and only bite. And he will return because:

Quote

"...no one was permitted to leave the feast until the time came for the bedding ceremony."

So the all-but-certain expectation at the time all this was planned was that Tyrion would be served his pie, he would take one bite, grab his throat and die.

15 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Lady O and LF are so good at predicting who Sansa would be married to, but they can't predict Tyrion isn't worried about offending Joff?

But, they can easily predict Joffrey's going to drink from his chalice. There's a virtually zero chance that Joffrey won't drink a toast from it, or wash his pie down from it.

They don't have to predict anything. By the time Lady O is brought into the plan, Sansa is married to Tyrion. Again, this idea that Lady O and LF had plotted all of this out way back at Highgarden is not only imaginary, but completely contradicted in the text multiple times.

Not only can they predict that Joffrey will drink from the chalice, but that Margaery will as well. Tell me, if Margaery knows that the wine is poisoned at this point, then why is she calling Joffrey to her side so they can answer the toast from Lord Buckler? Does she have a death wish? Even in the unlikely event that Joff would drink first, what was her plan to avoid drinking herself for the 25 or 30 seconds for the poison to take affect, only to then be standing there holding the chalice with a dead king on the floor?

16 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

And what if he wanted some crust, to soak up all the wine he's drunk? What if he wanted some cream, and that was dolloped on the middle and not the tip? Near-certain chance my arse. 

Who eats pie from the crust first? That's absurd. Tyrion is stuffed to the gills from the 30 courses that have already passed. Why would he need pie crust to soak up his wine? Why would the crust do this any better than the filling? Talk about making things up.

Eating the cream is not eating the pie. It is ill luck not to eat the pie and notice will be taken of who doesn't eat the pie. Nobody cares about the cream.

And if for some unforeseen reason that Tyrion does not eat the pie, well then he just lives for a while longer. Contrast that with what happens if Margaery drinks from the chalice, which is a far more likely possibility. An utterly devastating blow to House Tyrell.

16 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

 You think Cersei would see it that way? Is Lady O insulting the pie serving competency of Lannister organisation? Does Lady O bring in her own pie servers, who she trusts? Just for the pie? And again, where in the text is it said that anyone other than Cersei is organizing the wedding? 

Honestly? The pie-serving competency of the Lannister organization? I find it hard to believe that Cersei cares in the least how the pies are served. She has a thousand details to oversee. I can imagine Cersei would gladly let Lady O arrange all of this just to get her out of her hair. And even if Cersei gets annoyed. Big deal. Cersei gets annoyed by everyone and every thing. In what way do you think Cersei would prefer it be done? Have the guests twiddle their thumbs for minutes while pies are walked in from the kitchens?

And it's not like the Tyrells don't have a knack for getting their way:

Quote

Cersei had not wanted Tommen and his wife to share a bed at all, but the Tyrells had insisted. "Husband and wife should sleep together," the Queen of Thorns had said, "even if they do no more than sleep. His Grace's bed is big enough for two, surely." Lady Alerie had echoed her good-mother. "Let the children warm each other in the night. It will bring them closer. Margaery oft shares her blankets with her cousins."

And Cersei relented.

Honestly, of all the objections to raise to the pie, this notion that it is utterly impossible for Lady O to know which piece was going to Tyrion is the weakest. Of course she could know, even if she didn't arrange the whole thing or have one of her many "trusted servants" do the serving.

 

Now I have a question for you: how did Lady Olenna get the poison into the wine?

[John Suburbs]

14 hours ago, dmfn said:

I also think given Margery's history, the Tyrells wouldn't argue which king she married, so long as he was king, which increases the probability of Joffrey being the target. 

But why get rid of Joffrey when, within a year, Margaery can become mother to the new king? As Jaime explains:

Quote

"Then let them wed. It will be years before Tommen is old enough to consummate the marriage. And until he does, the union can always be set aside."

Couple this with the fact that Joffrey expresses no ill-feelings toward Margaery at all, nor has she nor her family given him any reason to be displeased in the slightest. In fact, we can see that it is the exact opposite given his behavior toward her at the wedding. He is pleased as punch to be marrying her instead mopey Sansa. The beatings given to Sansa were given for specific reasons; namely, her witness to his shame on the Trident and the fact that her family is in open rebellion to the crown. To say that Joffrey will beat Margy just because he beat Sansa is to say that he will behead Mace Tyrell just because he beheaded Ned Stark. Two different people; two different circumstances; two entirely different relationships to Joffrey.

But let's say that at some future point Joff did turn on Margaery. By then, Margy is the Queen Mother to at least one, and probably multiple, heirs. Wouldn't it be much easier and far less risky to kill him quietly, in private and made to look like an accident, rather than circumvent this distant possibility at a great public event right in front of literally thousands of people, and at a time when the entire Tyrell family is surrounded by Lannister guards? And then, Margaery would rule as Queen Regent just as Cersei is still doing now but only because Tommen is king, not Joffrey.

So in the end, what sort of political calculus has driven the Tyrells to sacrifice a near-sure thing (a Tyrell heir to the IT within a year overseen by Queen Regent Margaery) in favor of a five-year unconsummated marriage that can be set aside at any time for any reason and leaves Cersei as QR for the foreseeable future?

 

[Unacosamedarisa]

6 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And he will return because:

He might return. Doesn't mean he'll eat the pie. No one other than Joffrey says the pie must be eaten, we've have multiple weddings without pies and a requirement for them to be eaten. 

7 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So the all-but-certain expectation at the time all this was planned was that Tyrion would be served his pie, he would take one bite, grab his throat and die.

Throwing in phrases like "all-but-certain" and "zero-chance of failure" doesn't make your arguments more convincing. Showing me text, you know, from the actual books, that Olenna was in charge of the pie serving, might do it though. 

8 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Not only can they predict that Joffrey will drink from the chalice, but that Margaery will as well.

Yes, so they can then go "What? We'd never have anything to do with this poisoning. Look, Marg was drinking from the chalice!!"

9 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Who eats pie from the crust first? That's absurd.

Never heard of carbs. Pastry's gonna soak up more wine than gravy. 

It's no more absurd than your nonsense about Lady O taking over the pie serving arrangements. Something which has zero basis in text. 

11 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

In what way do you think Cersei would prefer it be done?

Her way. 

12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Have the guests twiddle their thumbs for minutes while pies are walked in from the kitchens?

Cersei is just as capable as arranging for the pie to be served immediately after the cutting of the ceremonial one. Prompt pie serving is not some special fucking skill exclusive to the Tyrells. 

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Now I have a question for you: how did Lady Olenna get the poison into the wine?

When everyone was distracted by the Pie cutting ceremony, Garlan, sat next to Tyrion and the chalice, dropped it in. He probably got it from Olenna just before this, as she comes over just after Tyrion has the wine poured over him. But I don't think GRRM has given us enough to definitely pinpoint who exactly did it, and the exact process... But he's given enough to know the general sequence.

Quote

“Alaric of Eysen,” said Lady Olenna Tyrell, leaning on her cane and taking no more notice of the wine-soaked dwarf than her granddaughter had done.

Here's a question for you. If the wine isn't poisoned, why does it change colour? 

When Joff pours it over Tyrion, the wine is red... 

Quote

“Your Grace,” was all he had time to say before the king upended the chalice over his head. The wine washed down over his face in a red torrent. 

When Joff drinks just before he dies, the wine is purple...

Quote

 Joff yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin.

 

[dmfn]

8 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

But why get rid of Joffrey when, within a year, Margaery can become mother to the new king? As Jaime explains:

Couple this with the fact that Joffrey expresses no ill-feelings toward Margaery at all, nor has she nor her family given him any reason to be displeased in the slightest. In fact, we can see that it is the exact opposite given his behavior toward her at the wedding. He is pleased as punch to be marrying her instead mopey Sansa. The beatings given to Sansa were given for specific reasons; namely, her witness to his shame on the Trident and the fact that her family is in open rebellion to the crown. To say that Joffrey will beat Margy just because he beat Sansa is to say that he will behead Mace Tyrell just because he beheaded Ned Stark. Two different people; two different circumstances; two entirely different relationships to Joffrey.

But let's say that at some future point Joff did turn on Margaery. By then, Margy is the Queen Mother to at least one, and probably multiple, heirs. Wouldn't it be much easier and far less risky to kill him quietly, in private and made to look like an accident, rather than circumvent this distant possibility at a great public event right in front of literally thousands of people, and at a time when the entire Tyrell family is surrounded by Lannister guards? And then, Margaery would rule as Queen Regent just as Cersei is still doing now but only because Tommen is king, not Joffrey.

So in the end, what sort of political calculus has driven the Tyrells to sacrifice a near-sure thing (a Tyrell heir to the IT within a year overseen by Queen Regent Margaery) in favor of a five-year unconsummated marriage that can be set aside at any time for any reason and leaves Cersei as QR for the foreseeable future?

 

You're right. Margy's motivation/willingness/preference all make poor logical sense for Joff being the target. 

I'll have to fall back to the oft-quoted kingslayer stew fears of others, but add a dash of Tywin may have preferred being Hand to Tom than being Hand to Joff.

I don't have any idea how deep this rabbit hole goes, but I have trouble believing anything Littlefinger ever says. However, the best lies contain an element of truth, so I still think Joff was the target. I think the wedding was chosen exactly because of all the confusion and distraction the KG complained about. I assume Joff is pretty well protected from harm most of the time, but his wedding would have more unknowns than security could account for. 

Tyrion being the mark because of Sansa is pretty hollow, though. If Tywin started a war at his least favorite son's kidnapping, what would be the consequence for his assassination?

A dead Joff could provide a convenient scapegoat for any type of Lannister/royal revenge, and a malleable puppet king. 

Seeing your point makes me wonder if the killers had the Tyrell's best interests in mind.

 

[John Suburbs]

4 hours ago, Back door hodor said:

I also am not convinced of this interpretation. All evidence and foreshadowing(the meeting with sansa, the hairnet, ser Dontos) points to the Tyrells as the culprit and Joff as the (intended)victim.

Tyrion makes little sense as the target, as Tywin, and to a lesser degree, Cersie, are the true obstacles to power.

The poison was in the wine, not the pie or cream, this is set up in cressan pov.

As to the supposed time difference between Cressan and Joff dying....

I propose that there is not one, and any difference we the readers perceive is due to the point of view from we receive the information. We witness Joffs death along with Tyrion, Cressans is his literal internal monologue as he is dying, any perceived difference in time can be attributed to this.

 

Killing Tywin does not eliminate the central problem for the Tyrells: the fact that Casterly Rock now has the ability to challenge Highgarden's hegemony using an intermarried power bloc of the westerlands, crownlands, stormlands, riverlands and the north. No matter who is lord, the balance of power will remain shifted toward CR and away from HG. Killing Tyrion prevents the biggest prize, the north, from falling under Lannister domain.

Tywin and Cersei are not obstacles to power once there is a Tyrell on the Iron Throne. This can be accomplished far quicker with Joffrey than with Tommen.

Both Joffrey's and Cressen's deaths unfold in real-time. Time does not move faster or slower for different POVs.

[Back door hodor]

4 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Killing Tywin does not eliminate the central problem for the Tyrells: the fact that Casterly Rock now has the ability to challenge Highgarden's hegemony using an intermarried power bloc of the westerlands, crownlands, stormlands, riverlands and the north. No matter who is lord, the balance of power will remain shifted toward CR and away from HG. Killing Tyrion prevents the biggest prize, the north, from falling under Lannister domain.

Tywin and Cersei are not obstacles to power once there is a Tyrell on the Iron Throne. This can be accomplished far quicker with Joffrey than with Tommen.

Both Joffrey's and Cressen's deaths unfold in real-time. Time does not move faster or slower for different POVs.

I didn't say time moves faster....I said that we the reader perceive it as such....I've read people say it cant be the same poison becuase of the speed with which both start to feel the effects, it is not a huge portion of time, close enough that others have pointed to the age of both victims and the dosage as being a factor....I'm saying it's neither, Cressan lived long enough to say(think)What the author wanted him to tell us and Joff lived long enough for the author to do what he wanted him to do(make Tyrion appear to be the poisoner). Wether one coughs or doesn't cough or speaks one sentence or two or thinks for a page and a half before they die does not matter.

I don't think the Tyrells, or for that matter, anyone would target Tyrion, the north is a secondary prize for them, appealing sure but not worth the risk of losing the iron throne for. They want the throne and they want control of it, Tryion is no obstacle to this, Joff very well could be.

I also want to add that I'm about 50/50 on wether Tywin himself was part of this plot or not, but if he was, i think the possibilitie of Tryion being the target goes way up, as motive now exists. 

TBH Mel could have really done it with the leeches for all I know haha 

[John Suburbs]

3 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

He might return. Doesn't mean he'll eat the pie. No one other than Joffrey says the pie must be eaten, we've have multiple weddings without pies and a requirement for them to be eaten. 

He will, at least one bite, or risk the ill luck that Joffrey, if not Tywin or Cersei, will visit upon him later.

3 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Throwing in phrases like "all-but-certain" and "zero-chance of failure" doesn't make your arguments more convincing. Showing me text, you know, from the actual books, that Olenna was in charge of the pie serving, might do it though. 

This is the custom. It is equivalent to our wedding cake. For us it is a matter of courtesy to eat the cake. For them, it is a matter of respecting the king who as power over your very life. Everybody is expected to eat at least one bite.

You'll get your text, in the next book most likely. My explanation as to how the poison got into the pie is at least plausible. Show me the text that says it is even remotely possible for tiny Lady Olenna to reach past Tyrion without being seen all the way to the lip of a chalice that is a good six feet off the ground and at least an arm's length toward the center.

3 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Yes, so they can then go "What? We'd never have anything to do with this poisoning. Look, Marg was drinking from the chalice!!"

So their plan is to murder both Margaery and Joffrey in order to protect her from Joffrey?

3 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Never heard of carbs. Pastry's gonna soak up more wine than gravy. 

It's no more absurd than your nonsense about Lady O taking over the pie serving arrangements. Something which has zero basis in text. 

Tyrion has a full stomach, and he knows nothing about carbs. This whole argument is silly. Lady O needs to arrange it so that she knows which pie is Tyrion's. This is a perfectly plausible way of doing it, although not the only way.

3 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Her way. 

Cersei is just as capable as arranging for the pie to be served immediately after the cutting of the ceremonial one. Prompt pie serving is not some special fucking skill exclusive to the Tyrells. 

And what way is that? What better way than having a pie at the ready for each guest at the head table? Most likely, this is exactly how Cersei wanted it done anyway. In that case, all Lady O had to do is stand beside the servant right behind Tyrion.

Again, of all the criticisms to make of the pie theory, this is the silliest. Of course Lady O could know which pie was his. The possibilities are almost endless.

3 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

When everyone was distracted by the Pie cutting ceremony, Garlan, sat next to Tyrion and the chalice, dropped it in. He probably got it from Olenna just before this, as she comes over just after Tyrion has the wine poured over him. But I don't think GRRM has given us enough to definitely pinpoint who exactly did it, and the exact process... But he's given enough to know the general sequence.

 

Garlan, eh? And where is your text for that? Show me anything that has Lady O handing a purple crystal to Garlan just before the ceremony. Show me anything that indicates Garlan is ill-disposed toward Tyrion at all. Show me any reason why he would be trying to diffuse the spat between Joffrey and Tyrion, since this is so absolutely crucial to the plan. And most importantly, show me any reason why Garlan, an anointed knight descended from the family that literally invented the concept of knightly honor and chivalry, would shame himself before the gods by using poison to kill a foe, his own king and a boy of 13 no less.

Lol, "I don't think GRRM has given us enough evidence to pinpoint who exactly did it..." So you reserve that excuse for yourself, and yet blithely dismiss Lady O doing the pie because it has "zero basis in text." Well, right back at you, my friend: GRRM has not given us enough evidence to pinpoint exactly how she knew which slice was for Tyrion. 

Again, my scenario is at least highly plausible. Yours is still a million-to-one-shot even for Garlan considering he has about one second to reach up to the chalice and drop the crystal in, and he has to do this right in front Sansa and Tyrion and with no less than a thousand other people facing his direction. And if just one of those people happens to catch this sudden arm movement, it means the imprisonment, torture and probably death of virtually everyone he holds dear, not to mention his own enduring shame as a coward and a kinglsayer. Talk about absurd.

Try it yourself: have someone stand a yardstick straight up on your kitchen table and try and reach the top without the short person right by your side seeing it.

4 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Here's a question for you. If the wine isn't poisoned, why does it change colour? 

When Joff pours it over Tyrion, the wine is red... 

When Joff drinks just before he dies, the wine is purple...

 

Um, that's part of the sequence, but how about we run through the whole thing, shall we?

Joff pours red wine over Tyrion.

Tyrion sees purple wine running down Joff's chin.

Joff spills red wine again when he drops the chalice.

Tyrion sees deep purple wine at the end of the scene.

I can easily explain the purple wine on Joff's chin as the affect of thin sheens of red wine against his pale white skin illuminated by orange candle- and torchlight reflecting off the golden chalice. You bet that is going to look purple.

How do you explain that this purple wine has suddenly turned back to red in the chalice, only to turn back to purple a few moments later?

And how do you explain Cressen not noticing that his wine, since it is apparently so much more concentrated than Joffrey's 'deep purple," has turned nearly black? Why on earth would anyone think that a poison that can be so easily detected would make an affective tool to kill high-value targets like kings and priestesses? And why would anyone choose to deploy it in crystal form if this is what happens with just a "flake" of one crystal? Don't you think that after all this time someone would have figured out by now that a better way would be to crush it up into powder? And why would anyone think it was useful if in any given batch they don't know if it will work in five seconds, twenty-five seconds, or perhaps not at all?

[John Suburbs]

4 hours ago, dmfn said:

You're right. Margy's motivation/willingness/preference all make poor logical sense for Joff being the target. 

I'll have to fall back to the oft-quoted kingslayer stew fears of others, but add a dash of Tywin may have preferred being Hand to Tom than being Hand to Joff.

I don't have any idea how deep this rabbit hole goes, but I have trouble believing anything Littlefinger ever says. However, the best lies contain an element of truth, so I still think Joff was the target. I think the wedding was chosen exactly because of all the confusion and distraction the KG complained about. I assume Joff is pretty well protected from harm most of the time, but his wedding would have more unknowns than security could account for. 

 

Littlefinger's motivation for killing Joff is even weaker that Lady O's. In Joff, he has the perfect vessel through which he can sow all kinds of chaos in the realm. He is already at odds with both his mother and his grandfather, both of whom are flustered by the inability to control or influence him in any way, and yet LF is one of maybe two people on the planet who can manipulated him -- the other being Margaery.

And sorry, but there is no evidence that LF is a soothsayer or greenseer or has any other magical abilities to predict the future. So by simply arranging the dwarf joust, there is no way he could possibly predict all the twists and turns that it took to put the chalice in the exact spot at the exact time that it needed to be poisoned and to ensure that Tyrion would have his hands on it prior to Joff's death. This is simply impossible.

Plus, we have to recognize the fact that if Joff was the target, then the only reason LF needs to frame Tyrion at all is because he (Littlefinger) told Tywin about the Willas plan, which was not going to happen until after the wedding. If he said nothing, all he had to do was kill Joff and Sansa would be free and clear, so why is he intentionally complicating his own plany by multiple orders of magnitude just to prevent something that isn't going to happen anyway?

4 hours ago, dmfn said:

Tyrion being the mark because of Sansa is pretty hollow, though. If Tywin started a war at his least favorite son's kidnapping, what would be the consequence for his assassination?

Nobody commits a murder expecting to get caught. There is no reason why Lady O would think Tywin would lay the blame on the Tyrells for Tyrion's murder, especially since Sansa has just disappeared. Obviously, she is the killer, not them.

[Unacosamedarisa]

27 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You'll get your text, in the next book most likely.

And until then, your Lady Olenna - Pie Logistics Master fanfic stays exactly, fanfic. 

I've given you text that says Cersei organised the feast and the servers. You've given me nothing to support your idea that Lady O was in charge of the pie. Come back when you have text please. 

29 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Lady O needs to arrange it so that she knows which pie is Tyrion's.

See, this is the problem... Lady Olenna needs to arrange the pie in order to know which is Tyrion's slice, in order to kill Tyrion. So you're making up nonsense that Lady O organised the pie to fit your theory. 

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Back door hodor said:

I didn't say time moves faster....I said that we the reader perceive it as such....I've read people say it cant be the same poison becuase of the speed with which both start to feel the effects, it is not a huge portion of time, close enough that others have pointed to the age of both victims and the dosage as being a factor....I'm saying it's neither, Cressan lived long enough to say(think)What the author wanted him to tell us and Joff lived long enough for the author to do what he wanted him to do(make Tyrion appear to be the poisoner). Wether one coughs or doesn't cough or speaks one sentence or two or thinks for a page and a half before they die does not matter.

Sorry, but the elapsed time is perfectly clear in both POVs:

Mel's one sentence about the power of fire -- four seconds, maybe five.

Joffrey's long drink, followed by the banter with Margaery, eating pie, drinking, eating more pie -- 20 to 25 seconds, or about five to six times longer, maybe longer depending on the duration of his intial "long and deep" drink. Remember, we are measuring the time that elapses between the poison hitting the throat and the point at which the victim tries to speak but "the words caught in his throat" -- not when the victim could no longer speak at all no matter how hard they tried or when they first uttered a tiny "kof."

So, Joff's timeline can in no way be dismissed as "not a huge portion of time." It is multiple orders of magnitude longer. But when you look at the time difference between Joff taking his first drink of wine after eating the pie, it is approximately four or five seconds until "his words broke up in a fit of coughing", ie, the words caught in his throat.

Coincidence? I think not. There is already plenty of evidence to make it appear that Tyrion is the poisoner. In what way does eating Tyrion's pie and then dying implicate Tyrion even more? To buy into this wine theory is to say that instead of Martin just having Joff drink, grab his throat and die, he decided to add another half page or so of completely superfluous text that serves no purpose, no point, nothing at all, in a book that is already a third longer than the first two. Publishers do not like to print extra pages and use extra ink, particularly when they are planning a million initial printings. It starts to add up to real money. All of this action is meant to do one thing: point us to the truth that the poison was in the pie, not the wine.

 

1 hour ago, Back door hodor said:

I don't think the Tyrells, or for that matter, anyone would target Tyrion, the north is a secondary prize for them, appealing sure but not worth the risk of losing the iron throne for. They want the throne and they want control of it, Tryion is no obstacle to this, Joff very well could be.

The Tyrells are not trying to gain the north. That ship sailed when Littlefinger blew the Willas plan. They are trying to prevent Tywin from getting the north, which is in fact a lucrative prize seeing that it is chock full of wood, stone, ore, furs and everything else to support a medieval army, not to mention a fighting force of 20,000 or more. Add this prize to his other recent gains in the riverlands, crownlands and stormlands, not to mention the Iron Throne itself, and Casterly Rock is now in a position to threaten Highgarden militarily -- a reversal of the status quo that has existed for several millennia. And it is all led by a mad dog warlord who doesn't just defeat his enemies and then raise them up, but wipes out entire families, razes their castles to the ground, burns their lands to a cinder, sacks cities with abandon and murders innocent smallfolk by the thousands. This is what keeps Lady O up at night, not whether Margaery will someday get a black eye from Joffrey.

How is Joff an obstacle to the Iron Throne? The Tyrells would have had the throne in short order if Joffrey had lived. Within a year, Margery would have born her first child. Hopefully it would have been a boy, but if not she keeps trying until she is so blessed. At that point, there are countless ways to get rid of Joff if he becomes a problem, and there is no indication, nothing at all whatsoever, that he poses any danger to Margaery, literally nada. Plus, if they decide to remove him, they can do it quietly and in private, with no witnesses, not directly in front of a thousand people while practically the entire Tyrell family is surrounded by Lannister guards.

Killing Joffrey later would also allow Margaery to rule as Queen Regent for however many years it takes for her son to come of age. By killing him now, they are stuck with an unconsummated marriage to Tommen, which can be put aside at any time with little trouble from the High Septon that the Lannisters themselves put in place, all while Cersei, who would otherwise have been packed off to her next husband in a fortnight, remains as Queen Regent. This was a huge setback for House Tyrell.

1 hour ago, Back door hodor said:

I also want to add that I'm about 50/50 on wether Tywin himself was part of this plot or not, but if he was, i think the possibilitie of Tryion being the target goes way up, as motive now exists. 

Tywin was not part of it. If he wanted Tyrion, or Joffrey, dead he could have done so at any time rather than stage an elaborate scene at the wedding. But Tywin is not a kinslayer and he uses his family as a means to consolidate his own power. He needs Joff on the Iron Throne so he can rule through him. He needs Tyrion at Winterfell so he can begin the process of establishing Pax Lannister.

1 hour ago, Back door hodor said:

TBH Mel could have really done it with the leeches for all I know haha 

The leeches, sure, or Mel could have killed Joffrey through her fires at Dragonstone. Both of these, in fact, are more plausible than poisoned wine, since they do not contradict the text at literally dozens of points.

[John Suburbs]

42 minutes ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

And until then, your Lady Olenna - Pie Logistics Master fanfic stays exactly, fanfic. 

I've given you text that says Cersei organised the feast and the servers. You've given me nothing to support your idea that Lady O was in charge of the pie. Come back when you have text please. 

See, this is the problem... Lady Olenna needs to arrange the pie in order to know which is Tyrion's slice, in order to kill Tyrion. So you're making up nonsense that Lady O organised the pie to fit your theory. 

In about a year, then. In the meantime, I've given you plenty of text that says Garlan was a noble night who had no ill will toward Tyrion and would never shame himself by using poison. Come back when you have text please.

Here is your problem … you need Garlan to drop the poison because Lady O cannot do it herself. So you are making up nonsense that Garlan is really a sniveling, weaselly coward just to fit your theory.

The key difference, of course, is that there is nothing in the text that contradicts my assertion, while there is plenty that contradicts yours, and virtually everything else about the wine.

[Unacosamedarisa]

16 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

In the meantime, I've given you plenty of text that says Garlan was a noble night who had no ill will toward Tyrion and would never shame himself by using poison.

Yes, in the duplicitous world of Westeros nobility, Garlan is surely exactly how he's presented, with the name The Gallant, given to him by his brother and not actually earned for gallant deeds. Couldn't possibly be that the name came first, and so influences the perceptions of him.  Couldn't possibly just be an act to cozy up to Tyrion, their patsy in the assassination, so he would never suspect him. 

Quote

So you are making up nonsense that Garlan is really a sniveling, weaselly coward just to fit your theory.

That would be one way to look at him. Another would be that he's doing what he's doing to protect his sister from a monster, which, in a way, could be gallant. 

16 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The key difference, of course, is that there is nothing in the text that contradicts my assertion,

Except all the text that states Cersei arranged the wedding and the feast, and Olenna had no part in it, and so wouldn't have a clue which slice of pie Tyrion was to be served. 

[Back door hodor]

11 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but the elapsed time is perfectly clear in both POVs:

Mel's one sentence about the power of fire -- four seconds, maybe five.

Joffrey's long drink, followed by the banter with Margaery, eating pie, drinking, eating more pie -- 20 to 25 seconds, or about five to six times longer, maybe longer depending on the duration of his intial "long and deep" drink. Remember, we are measuring the time that elapses between the poison hitting the throat and the point at which the victim tries to speak but "the words caught in his throat" -- not when the victim could no longer speak at all no matter how hard they tried or when they first uttered a tiny "kof."

So, Joff's timeline can in no way be dismissed as "not a huge portion of time." It is multiple orders of magnitude longer. But when you look at the time difference between Joff taking his first drink of wine after eating the pie, it is approximately four or five seconds until "his words broke up in a fit of coughing", ie, the words caught in his throat.

Coincidence? I think not. There is already plenty of evidence to make it appear that Tyrion is the poisoner. In what way does eating Tyrion's pie and then dying implicate Tyrion even more? To buy into this wine theory is to say that instead of Martin just having Joff drink, grab his throat and die, he decided to add another half page or so of completely superfluous text that serves no purpose, no point, nothing at all, in a book that is already a third longer than the first two. Publishers do not like to print extra pages and use extra ink, particularly when they are planning a million initial printings. It starts to add up to real money. All of this action is meant to do one thing: point us to the truth that the poison was in the pie, not the wine.

 

The Tyrells are not trying to gain the north. That ship sailed when Littlefinger blew the Willas plan. They are trying to prevent Tywin from getting the north, which is in fact a lucrative prize seeing that it is chock full of wood, stone, ore, furs and everything else to support a medieval army, not to mention a fighting force of 20,000 or more. Add this prize to his other recent gains in the riverlands, crownlands and stormlands, not to mention the Iron Throne itself, and Casterly Rock is now in a position to threaten Highgarden militarily -- a reversal of the status quo that has existed for several millennia. And it is all led by a mad dog warlord who doesn't just defeat his enemies and then raise them up, but wipes out entire families, razes their castles to the ground, burns their lands to a cinder, sacks cities with abandon and murders innocent smallfolk by the thousands. This is what keeps Lady O up at night, not whether Margaery will someday get a black eye from Joffrey.

How is Joff an obstacle to the Iron Throne? The Tyrells would have had the throne in short order if Joffrey had lived. Within a year, Margery would have born her first child. Hopefully it would have been a boy, but if not she keeps trying until she is so blessed. At that point, there are countless ways to get rid of Joff if he becomes a problem, and there is no indication, nothing at all whatsoever, that he poses any danger to Margaery, literally nada. Plus, if they decide to remove him, they can do it quietly and in private, with no witnesses, not directly in front of a thousand people while practically the entire Tyrell family is surrounded by Lannister guards.

Killing Joffrey later would also allow Margaery to rule as Queen Regent for however many years it takes for her son to come of age. By killing him now, they are stuck with an unconsummated marriage to Tommen, which can be put aside at any time with little trouble from the High Septon that the Lannisters themselves put in place, all while Cersei, who would otherwise have been packed off to her next husband in a fortnight, remains as Queen Regent. This was a huge setback for House Tyrell.

Tywin was not part of it. If he wanted Tyrion, or Joffrey, dead he could have done so at any time rather than stage an elaborate scene at the wedding. But Tywin is not a kinslayer and he uses his family as a means to consolidate his own power. He needs Joff on the Iron Throne so he can rule through him. He needs Tyrion at Winterfell so he can begin the process of establishing Pax Lannister.

The leeches, sure, or Mel could have killed Joffrey through her fires at Dragonstone. Both of these, in fact, are more plausible than poisoned wine, since they do not contradict the text at literally dozens of points.

I'm going to be honest John, I'm pretty sure you and I have had this discussion before, you are not going to change my mind, I'm not going to change yours, we can leave it at that.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but the elapsed time is perfectly clear in both POVs:

Mel's one sentence about the power of fire -- four seconds, maybe five.

Joffrey's long drink, followed by the banter with Margaery, eating pie, drinking, eating more pie -- 20 to 25 seconds, or about five to six times longer, maybe longer depending on the duration of his intial "long and deep" drink. Remember, we are measuring the time that elapses between the poison hitting the throat and the point at which the victim tries to speak but "the words caught in his throat" -- not when the victim could no longer speak at all no matter how hard they tried or when they first uttered a tiny "kof."

So, Joff's timeline can in no way be dismissed as "not a huge portion of time." It is multiple orders of magnitude longer. But when you look at the time difference between Joff taking his first drink of wine after eating the pie, it is approximately four or five seconds until "his words broke up in a fit of coughing", ie, the words caught in his throat.

This is important. The timing discrepancy is not based on number of words on the page or what's happening in Cressen's thoughts or anything like that. It is based on the dialogue, which is very clear in both scenes.

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Yes, in the duplicitous world of Westeros nobility, Garlan is surely exactly how he's presented, with the name The Gallant, given to him by his brother and not actually earned for gallant deeds. Couldn't possibly be that the name came first, and so influences the perceptions of him.  Couldn't possibly just be an act to cozy up to Tyrion, their patsy in the assassination, so he would never suspect him. 

Couldn't possibly be that this fake knight who is actually a sniveling, weasily coward waded into the thick of the fighting on the Blackwater and slew innumerable foes single-handed, or the he is actively trying to defuse the very spat that your poisoning plan requires.

And back at you: where is your text for any of this. Everything I've read shows Garlan to be a class guy. All you have is fanfic.

18 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

That would be one way to look at him. Another would be that he's doing what he's doing to protect his sister from a monster, which, in a way, could be gallant. 

If he felt the need to protect his sister, then he would do it the proper way, with swords.

18 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Except all the text that states Cersei arranged the wedding and the feast, and Olenna had no part in it, and so wouldn't have a clue which slice of pie Tyrion was to be served. 

The text never states that Olenna had no part in it. More fanfic.

The text also states that neither Lady Olenna nor Margaery are in the least bit concerned about Joffrey's behavior toward Margaery. Again, complete fanfic.

 

[John Suburbs]

7 hours ago, Back door hodor said:

I'm going to be honest John, I'm pretty sure you and I have had this discussion before, you are not going to change my mind, I'm not going to change yours, we can leave it at that.

No prob. All I suggest is that you look at the actual facts of the case, and when you make an assumption to try and explain why a certain fact might not be real, test it against other known facts or logical deductions of human behavior.

[Unacosamedarisa]

1 minute ago, John Suburbs said:

Couldn't possibly be that this fake knight who is actually a sniveling, weasily coward waded into the thick of the fighting on the Blackwater and slew innumerable foes single-handed, or the he is actively trying to defuse the very spat that your poisoning plan requires.

Didn't say he wasn't brave. Just duplicitous.

1 minute ago, John Suburbs said:

If he felt the need to protect his sister, then he would do it the proper way, with swords.

Against the King? Are you serious? He should just stab the King? 

2 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The text never states that Olenna had no part in it. More fanfic.

It also doesn't state that she did have a part in it. That's my point. The text only says Cersei arranged the wedding and the feast. You are the one claiming that Olenna did have a part in it... but the text doesn't show that. Your notion that Olenna organised the pies is fanfiction.