Roose Bolton defeated Stannis Baratheon

[Only 89 selfies today]

 The pink letter mentioned the Bolton victory over Stannis.  Ramsay is not stupid enough to make that claim unless it is true.   Picture a scenario where the pink letter arrive at the wall and a raven also arrives from Stannis at the same time.  Ramsay knows it ruins the credibility of his letter.   He wrote the truth.  Only the Boltons will have all the data needed to compose that letter.  Jon's wildlings sang under torture and gave up the information.  

Stannis Baratheon lost the battle for winterfell but he probably survived.  He changed armor with a dead man, left his sword behind, and the body was damaged beyond recognition.  I don't think Ramsay knows what Stannis looks like.  

[Euron III Greyjoy]

Maybe, I'm personally leaning more towards Stannis winning. With there only being two books left and with there still being storylines to complete in other places around the world, I feel like the Boltons need to be wiped out pretty quickly so we can progress to the final arc so to speak.

Maybe if Jon didn't get betrayed and he actually left with the wildling army then I could see Stannis loosing, but since I doubt GRRM is going to bullshit Jon back to life like in the show, if Stannis looses then there is going to be no one to deal with the Boltons until Jon gets revived and deals with all the shit going down at Castle Black. At the absolute most I could see Stannis and Roose taking each other out. Really what story do the Bolton's have left now? 

As for the letter, its been theorized that it could have been made by either Stannis or Mance to get Jon fro the Wall. 

• Stannis might want Jon to come from the Wall either for backup, or possibly so when Jon arrives at Winterfell Stannis can proclaim him the new Lord of Winterfell infront of all the Northern Lords, he probably hopes that by doing this Jon doesn't have a chance to refuse.
• Mance might want Jon from the Wall because the last we saw of him his spearwives where getting taken out one by one, this means he might either actually be a prisoner, or he is trapped in Winterfell hiding somewhere. In order to get out of this situation he would need his wildling army to help him. Sure he could wait for Stannis to take Winterfell, but Stannis would probably just burn him if he found out he was alive, so he needs his own loyal men. 

Both of these men would know about all the information written in the letter. Stannis from his time at the Wall and talking to Theon, and Mance from his time at the Wall and his getting information from snooping around Winterfell. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

Ramsay definitely wrote the letter, and he definitely did it with info from the tortured spearwives/Mance, but that doesn't mean it is accurate.  Just look at the numbers and tactical situation.  Stannis has some 6k men, and he is on the defense, knowing his enemy is coming his way.  Against him are some 2000-2500 Freys and 500 Manderlys, who are more likely actually on Stannis' side than on the Freys.  To top that off the Freys are led by a man widely referred to as Ser Stupid.

Stannis already indicated his intent to fake his own death to Justin Massey when he sends him away with the Banker to Bravos.  This explains the situation perfectly.  After winning this fight Stannis will have some supplies to take, dead horses and the Freys supplies, plus loosing some men and being able to more freely divide the Karstark rations, but he still lacks the ability to storm Winterfell with it being so heavily defended.  He may learn of friendly forces inside Winterfell from Manderly men, but it is still a complicated scenario.  Bolton himself has some 4k men and there are at least a couple thousand more within the walls with uncertain loyalties.  By faking his death he can get them to lower their guard, and allow some of his allies back into the castle under the guise of being Freys and/or Manderlys and/or Karkstarks.  Once inside the castle they can open the gates allowing the main body of Stannis' army to enter.

A good plan in my mind but it can be complicated in several ways.  Ramsay may want to ride for Castle black to get Theon and Jeyne Poole back immediately since it will be reported to him that they were not at the camp.  Roose is smart enough to see what a bad idea that is.  Most northern houses have family there, its a long march during winter requiring a lot of supplies and would weaken their defenses within WF.  Perhaps Ramsay kills Roose and goes anyway, but perhaps Roose maintains control and is more skeptical of the victory being presented to him.  Perhaps he does not let anyone back inside WF, and keeps all his men there.  Perhaps he returns to the Dreadfort with half his force and leaves Ramsay in WF with the other half.  Who can say exactly.  But the odds of Stannis loosing a battle where he has almost if not more than a 3 to 1 numbers advantage while playing defense against Ser Stupid and having 2 concealed lakes to mount a defense seems incredibly low to me.

[Clegane'sPup]

5 hours ago, Only 89 selfies today said:

The pink letter mentioned the Bolton victory over Stannis.  Ramsay is not stupid enough to make that claim unless it is true.

Picture a scenario where the pink letter arrive at the wall and a raven also arrives from Stannis at the same time.

Ramsay knows it ruins the credibility of his letter.   He wrote the truth.  Only the Boltons will have all the data needed to compose that letter.

Jon's wildlings sang under torture and gave up the information.  

Stannis Baratheon lost the battle for winterfell but he probably survived.  He changed armor with a dead man, left his sword behind, and the body was damaged beyond recognition.  I don't think Ramsay knows what Stannis looks like.  

I myself am guilty of run on sentences and not being able to articulate my ideas.  What really got my attention is the:

5 hours ago, Only 89 selfies today said:

Stannis Baratheon lost the battle for winterfell but he probably survived. 

Are you suggesting Stannis attacks WF. Stannis fails. Stannis is crawling around somewhere in the cold?

[Corvo the Crow]

Here, a much simpler alternative;

Stannis defeats Ramsay and the Freys. 

Stannis obtains Bolton seal and wax, not hard to take from a defeated foe unable to runaway.

Stannis knew Mance is alive, so he possibly knew about Mance's ploy and Mel's intentions on saving "Arya" beforehand but even if he didn't he now has Theon and fArya to learn that Mance and his spearwives saved them.

He wants his family, Jon, Val, Mance's son, fArya and Reek so he sends the letter. If Jon concedes good, he can now try again to convince him. If he raises men to oppose Ramsay, much more better. Stannis can now claim he has broken his vows and raised up against the realm and his life is forfeit, unless he accepts his offer and marries Val to become lord of WF.

Why he can't simply tell him to come? Because Jon won't accept, he'll simply send all except Val(to help with wildlings) and will stay on the wall. If he threatens him into action with no King Stannis to help this time, well Stannis depends on Jon will feel honor bound to defend Stannis' family from Ramsay and bringing in his sister will make it personal.

[Guest]

I think it had to be Ramsey who sent the letter. Stannis would never lie to Jon, and I don't think Mance can read/write. I could see him giving lightbringer and his crown to someone dedicated like Farring or Richard Horpe and sending them to obviously die, so the Boltons believe they have won while he actually finishes them off. I think it might be possible though that Stannis is actually defeated. Regardless, with all the anti-Bolton people in Winterfell, Roose's rule won't last long. 

It could be that Stannis in on his way to defeat Roose, but there are two theories I have, equally crazy, that could work with each other, to say that Stannis won't last long whether he's already dead or could win soon.

1. Mel has unintentionally been stealing Stannis's youth and is going to die of old age soon. Every time he shows up in another characters POV, he looks a decade older, and until meeting Theon, seemed completely lost in Asha's chapters without Davos, Mel, or Jon to council him. The magic may have gone rogue and started infecting his host, causing his men to start aging rapidly. Regardless if this is the case, all the Northmen seem old, and I believe this is their "last hunt," and none of them intend on returning home. It could be revealed that everyone is old and feeble when battle is joined with the Frey's, Bolton's main force, or...

2. The Weeper has broken through the Shadow Tower and is making for Stannis' army. Alister Thorne's head never came back to Castle Black. Could he have brokered a deal with the Weeper, and through treachery, persuasion, or assault, gotten the Weeper's band past the shadow tower to kill Stannis. Stannis' army could get attacked from the rear when battle is joined, or the Weeper might wait until he is advancing more on Winterfell to attack. When he does, the old age reveal may happen, at which time Winterfell may start crumbling around Roose.

Probably bullshit, but I like it.

[Moiraine Sedai]

3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Here, a much simpler alternative;

Stannis defeats Ramsay and the Freys. 

Stannis obtains Bolton seal and wax, not hard to take from a defeated foe unable to runaway.

Stannis knew Mance is alive, so he possibly knew about Mance's ploy and Mel's intentions on saving "Arya" beforehand but even if he didn't he now has Theon and fArya to learn that Mance and his spearwives saved them.

He wants his family, Jon, Val, Mance's son, fArya and Reek so he sends the letter. If Jon concedes good, he can now try again to convince him. If he raises men to oppose Ramsay, much more better. Stannis can now claim he has broken his vows and raised up against the realm and his life is forfeit, unless he accepts his offer and marries Val to become lord of WF.

Why he can't simply tell him to come? Because Jon won't accept, he'll simply send all except Val(to help with wildlings) and will stay on the wall. If he threatens him into action with no King Stannis to help this time, well Stannis depends on Jon will feel honor bound to defend Stannis' family from Ramsay and bringing in his sister will make it personal.

Possible but not the preferred outcome.  I like Selfie's version of what could have happened.  Roose Bolton gets a chance to bring the Wildlings to heel and takes full control of the north.  Stannis had his chance.  He chose to continue the war instead of taking the black to make peace with the throne.  The throne might listen after Stannis takes the black and removed himself from the competition. The Boltons would listen and might actually send men to the wall.  

[divica]

I think both characters are doomed.

Roose is surrounded by people that want to kill him and a psico son.

Stannis has a Southern army that is being killed by the cold. By the end of his fight against the freys his Southern army will be too small to matter… And no northern lord will ever follow him (fire god religion, Southern pride and obecession for the IT)...

Probably they will never face each other lol

[The Sunland Lord]

I think that Roose wrote and sent the PL quickly after questioning Mance (why would he let his insane bastard question Mance knowing that he'd rather just flay him and feed him to his girl dogs) in order to provoke Jon Snow into reacting impulsive which actually happened.

But who wrote it isn't of utmost relevance for the battle itself imo. The battle probably haven't played out yet and the letter was written to accomplish something else rather than Ramsay getting his "Reek" and "wife" back.  

As for the odds: We really don't know who wins. The situation is very complex and both sides have pros and cons which are well known. 

However, the Boltons will come to an end. They will either die during Stannis's attack, a "friendly fire", or will simply get caught and butchered in their bedrooms by some of the thousands Northmen who lost family members at the Twins. Chaos and confusion is the best time to strike.

[300 H&H Magnum]

7 hours ago, Mooncalf said:

I think it had to be Ramsey who sent the letter. Stannis would never lie to Jon, and I don't think Mance can read/write. I could see him giving lightbringer and his crown to someone dedicated like Farring or Richard Horpe and sending them to obviously die, so the Boltons believe they have won while he actually finishes them off. I think it might be possible though that Stannis is actually defeated. Regardless, with all the anti-Bolton people in Winterfell, Roose's rule won't last long. 

It could be that Stannis in on his way to defeat Roose, but there are two theories I have, equally crazy, that could work with each other, to say that Stannis won't last long whether he's already dead or could win soon.

1. Mel has unintentionally been stealing Stannis's youth and is going to die of old age soon. Every time he shows up in another characters POV, he looks a decade older, and until meeting Theon, seemed completely lost in Asha's chapters without Davos, Mel, or Jon to council him. The magic may have gone rogue and started infecting his host, causing his men to start aging rapidly. Regardless if this is the case, all the Northmen seem old, and I believe this is their "last hunt," and none of them intend on returning home. It could be revealed that everyone is old and feeble when battle is joined with the Frey's, Bolton's main force, or...

2. The Weeper has broken through the Shadow Tower and is making for Stannis' army. Alister Thorne's head never came back to Castle Black. Could he have brokered a deal with the Weeper, and through treachery, persuasion, or assault, gotten the Weeper's band past the shadow tower to kill Stannis. Stannis' army could get attacked from the rear when battle is joined, or the Weeper might wait until he is advancing more on Winterfell to attack. When he does, the old age reveal may happen, at which time Winterfell may start crumbling around Roose.

Probably bullshit, but I like it.

I have big issues with your #2.  Ser Alliser Thorne is a man of honor.  He fought for his king and got sent to the wall for his loyalty.  He may be a poor sword instructor but he is a man of duty.  He would never broker a deal with a wildling to attack a nobleman of Westeros.  He might hate the Baratheons but he is not a man who would ally with the wildlings to attack the people he has sworn to protect.  That is something Jon Snow would do for his sister.  Alliser Thorne is better than that.  

[cpg2016]

I think the whole chain of events is obvious, it's shocking to me that anyone doesn't get it.

Stannis wins the Battle of Ice.  He lures the Freys onto the frozen lake, which has been ice-fished to the point where the ice is weakening.  This is a huge Chekhov's Gun which almost has to go off.  The Freys charge in, a bunch die in the lake (because we know Hosteen is hot headed, stupid, and has no caution), and the Manderly men turn on the rest and join up with Stannis.  About the same time, Ramsay murders Roose and Fat Walda, which has been foreshadowed so heavily that it's basically been stated, and takes control of Winterfell and the remaining Bolton forces there.

Using the Manderly troops and the Karstarks he captured, Stannis fakes as though he lost the Battle of Ice and sends those guys back to Winterfell, where they relay to Ramsay that they "won".  At this point, he sends the Pink Letter to Jon.  So far so good; Ramsay isn't lying, per se, since he thinks he's telling the truth.

Stannis then sneaks into Winterfell from the also often-mentioned tunnels in the crypts, and with the help of his Manderly partisans opens the gates to his main army, probably killing Ramsay in the process, thus neatly tying up the political storyline in the North; the Boltons, like the other Houses, aren't the real threat, the Others are, and they need to be swept away before the Wall comes down so that everyone can refocus on the real threat.