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Whiskeyjack

Fantasy Football 2018

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Made a trade in my 12-team standard league.

I give: Adrian Peterson

I get: Kenny Golladay

I am stacked at RB (McCaffrey, Fournette, Michel, Breida, Lewis, Aaron Jones) but weak at WR, so was looking for someone with some solid touchdown upside, and Golladay fit the bill.

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This is all in a 12 team, non-ppr and non flex league. 

I am stacked at WR(A.Brown, D.Hopkins, B.Cooks, C. Ridley, S.Shepard) and needed a RB. I had to choose between trading B. Cooks/Chris Thompson for D. Freeman/C. Kirk OR B. Cooks/C. Thompson for M. Lynch/Doctson. 

I did the Marshawn trade. Devonta still scares me, it’s non-ppr and Raiders schedule is pretty soft. Hopefully Beast Mode stays healthy.

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Im playing Carolina's D today against the withered remains of Eli's forehead.  If the punting team recovers a muffed return for a touchdown, shouldnt that be special team points?  CBS league if that makes a difference.

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Man injuries are just making my life hell....

 

Okay, maybe that's a bit hyperbolic, but you get my point. 

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1 hour ago, SpaceForce Tywin et al. said:

Man injuries are just making my life hell....

 

Okay, maybe that's a bit hyperbolic, but you get my point. 

Man, you got no idea what pain is MAN

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I might have gone 3-0 for the first week this season if it weren't for Ricky Seales-Jones putting up a 0 while Burton was on bye. ugh. 31 from OBJ, 29 from Adams, 24 from Cinci D/ST... ended up 149-141. Second highest scorer of the weak - classic! 

So my records thus far are 4-1, 1-4, and 2-2 (13-man league so I had a bye lat week). Talk about symmetry! 

(My 4-1 league is Westeros B... my only non-money league lmao)

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Hit a bit of a speed bump in week 4, but bounced back this week to go 4-0 again.  Been a really good season so far.

Westeros A:  4-1 (2nd place)
Westeros B:  4-1 (2nd place)
Westeros C:  4-1 (1st place)
Experts:  3-2 (3rd place)

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Definitely my best week yet.  7-0 and middle of the pack in the first half of a two-parter in Survivor.  Five of the seven were top scores overall for those leagues.

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Throwing this out to the board -- starting Juszczyk over Dion Lewis in one of my leagues. Yea or nay? Lewis is up against Bmore, whose D looks pretty legit. The Check gets a go against Green Bay. Other backs are Carson and Powell.

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Have the fantasy score gone up this year? In Westeros B, I've noticed a lot of scores going into the 150+ territory and quite a few getting into the 180 area. That used to be hallowed ground that only happened 2-3 times a year. We are still playing with the same scoring settings right?

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I think offenses are just putting up more points this year, yeah, and particularly, quarterbacks are doing well, and we play in 2-QB, 6-pt-passing-TD leagues. There have been multiple weeks this year where I've had 2 30+ point QBs (I'm in two Westeros 2QB leagues), which used to be a huge deal. 

 

 

....

 

Went and checked it at Pro Football Reference, and damn, yeah, scoring is way up. 

 

          Scoring
Rk Year Tms RshTD RecTD PR TD KR TD FblTD IntTD OthTD AllTD 2PM 2PA XPM XPA FGM FGA Sfty Pts
1 2018 32 0.78 1.76 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.01 2.71 0.17 0.29 2.29 2.41 1.72 2.05 0.01 24.1
2 2017 32 0.74 1.45 0.02 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.01 2.39 0.07 0.16 2.08 2.21 1.69 2.01 0.03 21.7
3 2016 32 0.87 1.54 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.01 2.56 0.10 0.21 2.19 2.33 1.66 1.97 0.04 22.7
4 2015 32 0.71 1.64 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.10 0.01 2.56 0.09 0.18 2.24 2.38 1.63 1.93 0.03 22.8
5 2014 32 0.74 1.58 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.02 2.52 0.05 0.11 2.39 2.40 1.62 1.93 0.04 22.6
6 2013 32 0.80 1.57 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.02 2.62 0.07 0.13 2.46 2.47 1.69 1.95 0.04 23.4
7 2012 32 0.78 1.48 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.14 0.02 2.54 0.06 0.11 2.40 2.41 1.66 1.98 0.03 22.8
8 2011 32 0.78 1.46 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.01 2.47 0.05 0.10 2.34 2.36 1.64 1.97 0.04 22.2
9 2010 32 0.78 1.47 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.01 2.48 0.05 0.10 2.35 2.37 1.55 1.88 0.03 22.0
10 2009 32 0.84 1.39 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.09 0.01 2.44 0.05 0.12 2.28 2.31 1.48 1.82 0.03 21.5
11 2008 32 0.93 1.26 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.02 2.43 0.05 0.13 2.29 2.30 1.65 1.95 0.04 22.0
12 2007 32 0.75 1.41 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.10 0.01 2.42 0.06 0.11 2.28 2.30 1.55 1.88 0.04 21.7
13 2006 32 0.83 1.27 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.01 2.32 0.04 0.07 2.20 2.22 1.50 1.84 0.02 20.7
14 2005 32 0.84 1.26 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.01 2.28 0.05 0.09 2.15 2.18 1.53 1.89 0.02 20.6
15 2004 32 0.81 1.43 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.01 2.47 0.07 0.14 2.30 2.32 1.37 1.70 0.03 21.5
16 2003 32 0.83 1.28 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.11 0.01 2.35 0.06 0.12 2.17 2.20 1.48 1.86 0.04 20.8
17 2002 32 0.90 1.36 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.01 2.48 0.09 0.16 2.24 2.28 1.44 1.86 0.02 21.7
18 2001 31 0.74 1.28 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.12 0.01 2.26 0.08 0.17 2.03 2.07 1.48 1.93 0.02 20.2
19 2000 31 0.83 1.28 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.10 0.01 2.32 0.07 0.15 2.12 2.14 1.47 1.85 0.03 20.7
20 1999 31 0.73 1.34 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.01 2.33 0.06 0.16 2.12 2.14 1.51 1.94 0.05 20.8

 

 

So the average over the last 20 seasons (INCLUDING this year) is 21.825 points per game per team. The standard deviation is 1.03 (about 4.7%); this year's average is 24.1 points per game per team, so we're 2.275 points per game per team above average (about 10.4%). That's over 2.2 standard deviations out, which is crazy.

 

ETA: Also of note - kick return and punt return points are down; the increase is all in the passing offense, which again, is going to show up even harder in our leagues since we have 6pt passing TDs.

Edited by BLU-RAY

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Went 2-2 this week.  With wins in Experts and W-B.

Thought it was going to be a 3-1 week right up until the end of Sunday night.  That third Mahomes to Reek double TD stole a win (and first place) in W-A.

Overall, now 5-1 in W-B, and 4-2 in Experts, W-A, and W-C.

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Made another trade in my standard scoring money league (1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLEX/1K/1DEF).

Give: Sony Michel
Get: Tyreek Hill

Roster:
QB - Mahomes
RB - McCaffrey, Fournette, Breida, Lewis, Jones
WR - Hill, Golladay, Hilton, Funchess, Lockett, Wilson, Cooper
TE - Howard
K - Zuerlein

Leaves me a bit light at RB, but now I have a more balanced overall team.  I could have gotten Thielen instead of Hill, but went with Hill since I have Mahomes and it's six points for QB touchdowns, meaning I get 12 points for every Hill receiving score.  

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24 minutes ago, briantw said:

Leaves me a bit light at RB, but now I have a more balanced overall team.  I could have gotten Thielen instead of Hill, but went with Hill since I have Mahomes and it's six points for QB touchdowns, meaning I get 12 points for every Hill receiving score.  

Interesting philosophy.  I prefer to spread out boom and bust weeks (except in my work money league where almost two-thirds of the total payout is split 17 times for the high scorer of every week).  So were I you I'd have gone Thielen. 

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It's been such a bizarre year for me. 4-2 in my money league and really should be 5-1. I'm 5-1 in Thunderdome despite being 10th in scoring. 4-2 in Dynasty and again, should be 5-1. I have absolutely owned Survivor and am finishing tops in scoring nearly ever week.

And despite that, I'm 2-4 in A and 1-5 in C. Injuries at the RB position are just decimating me. And what's most frustrating is that I'm not losing by much. It's been reverse Thunderdome.

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14 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

Interesting philosophy.  I prefer to spread out boom and bust weeks (except in my work money league where almost two-thirds of the total payout is split 17 times for the high scorer of every week).  So were I you I'd have gone Thielen. 

Agreed. I try to avoid it as much as possible. It sure did work out well for me during Ryan's MVP year though. I can see the appeal with this year's Chiefs. 

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27 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

Interesting philosophy.  I prefer to spread out boom and bust weeks (except in my work money league where almost two-thirds of the total payout is split 17 times for the high scorer of every week).  So were I you I'd have gone Thielen. 

Yeah, if it weren't for the Mahomes factor I definitely would have went Thielen.  

But I expect both guys to end up being top five or ten at the position this year so it was a good deal for me either way.

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I guess my point is more that you're more likely to either win by 50 or lose with the pairing whereas by spreading out the risk you're probably not going to mop the floor with someone as often but you might have a more consistent median score.

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23 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

I guess my point is more that you're more likely to either win by 50 or lose with the pairing whereas by spreading out the risk you're probably not going to mop the floor with someone as often but you might have a more consistent median score.

Yeah, no doubt Thielen was the safer pick.  But as far as Mahomes goes, he hasn't really had any bad games this year, and I don't really expect that to change much.  He's only had less than 27 points once, and that was against Jacksonville and he still put up 18.

I also expect Thielen to come back down to earth a bit.  Not that I don't think he'll continue to be a top 5/10 WR, but I don't think he's ending the year with sixteen one-hundred yard games.

Edited by briantw

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Oh yeah, also worth noting that we get return yard points in this league, which factored into my decision.  1 point per 25 kick/punt return yards.

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