Battle of Blackwater- Tyrion was winning?

[Bernie Mac]

Did Tyrion actually need the Tyrells and Tywin's support, or was he already winning without them. Was Stannis getting beat on the Blackwater even before Renly's ghost arrived? 

[Hugorfonics]

Good question lol

Stannis was certainly getting beat at the Blackwater. Whether KL needed reinforcements is another story, Tyrion seems to think not and Im inclined to agree with him.

 Ser Imrys almost entire fleet was destroyed from the wildfire and chain. Stannis' army didnt take any gate or preserve their boatbridge and by the time the reinforcements arrived, the fighting was only on the other side of the bay. 

The story of Renlys ghost is fun, but the illusion that the soldiers turned to fight for Renly is just that. Stannis was getting massacred, Saan the pirate already begain docking his ships for Stannis' retreat, any attack from the rear would have sent Stannis' men in a frenzy.

There were commanders still fighting for Tyrion. Balon Swann, Bronn and the Kettleblacks and they still had loyal soldiers fighting for KL, as it took a whole day to knight all the loyalist soldiers.

How long until Bronn or whomever would decide to attack Stannis' rear? Thats pure speculation. But Bronn has time, Stannis is trapped behind the bay( with no boats) 3 gates, 3 Whores and the entire Red Keep, drawbridge and all.

Its also worth noting that the "Wildlings" were in the kingswood, and although Tyrion told them not to fight in the battle, Chella and the blackears arrive at KL shortly after

[The hairy bear]

Of course the Tyrell and Tywin's support was needed. The city was falling.

Tyrion managed to strike an unexpected blow when he burned Stannis' fleet, but that was just on opening statement. Even after losing the fleet, Stannis still had more than 16,000 fighting men against some 7,000 men defending the city. Among those men, there are the gold cloaks (trained for policing and not for war), the mountain clains (completely unprepared for siege battles) and some sellsword. All of them of very doubtful loyalty, and really unlikely to risk much in the fight. And all of that in a city that basically hates the Lannisters.

Tyrion knew that the defenders of KL could not match Stannis army. From the begining, he admited to Cersei that his goal was to be able to resist the siege long enough to give his father time to come down to help them. But when the battle starts, we realize that Tyrion's faith in the defenders being able to hold for at least some days was misplaced.

Tyrion himself leads the sortie at the King's Gate bacause Sandor refuses to do so and flees. While he defends the King's Gate, the Mud Gate is also attacked. The defenders of the Gate try to desert, and when Jacelyn Bywater tries to stop it, he is murdered by his own men.

So, when Tywin and the Tyrells arrive, we had that the defenders had lost their commander (Tyrion), the commander of the Gold Cloaks (Bywater), and two out of three Kingsguards (Moore and Clegane). One of the gates is about to fall, and Stannis is about to cross the river.

The city would have fallen in a matter of hours, and the Red Keep couldn't last more than a few days more.

 

 

[Hugorfonics]

7 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

and two out of three Kingsguards (Moore and Clegane).

There were three kingsguard alive after the battle, they spent half a day knighting the loyalists.

7 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Stannis is about to cross the river.

Why do you say this?

7 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

The city would have fallen in a matter of hours, and the Red Keep couldn't last more than a few days more.

Or either of these?

[Blackfish Tully]

13 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

How long until Bronn or whomever would decide to attack Stannis' rear? Thats pure speculation. But Bronn has time, Stannis is trapped behind the bay( with no boats) 3 gates, 3 Whores and the entire Red Keep, drawbridge and all.

 

How would Bronn manage this? who are these thousands of soldiers that Bronn would be leading to Stannis's rear and attacking him ? Stannis has 16,000 or so soldiers left so even though Tyrion has done incredibly well up to the point he is wounded there is just no chance that Kings Landing would be able to hold out more than a few more days if that . The Gold Cloaks have already killed their commander and abandoned the mud gate . How long till that gate falls ? The Gold Cloaks are not soldiers and they have no real loyalty to the Lannisters so they will only fight so hard so who are the soldiers that are going to defend Kings Landing against the 16,000 soldiers of Stannis .

[Hugorfonics]

1 minute ago, Blackfish Tully said:

How would Bronn manage this? who are these thousands of soldiers that Bronn would be leading to Stannis's rear and attacking him ? Stannis has 16,000 or so soldiers left so even though Tyrion has done incredibly well up to the point he is wounded there is just no chance that Kings Landing would be able to hold out more than a few more days if that . The Gold Cloaks have already killed their commander and abandoned the mud gate . How long till that gate falls ? The Gold Cloaks are not soldiers and they have no real loyalty to the Lannisters so they will only fight so hard so who are the soldiers that are going to defend Kings Landing against the 16,000 soldiers of Stannis .

Sellswords. It took half a day to knight the soldiers who fought at the "winch tower" (what's a winch tower?) Besides, not all goldcloaks turned tail.

If the gates were to fall, and the fighting went into the city in front of the red keep, you theorized the battle would continue for a few days. It was a few days later when the Blackears came to KL

[Unacosamedarisa]

18 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Why do you say this?

Probably because, Stannis and his army where about to cross the river...

Quote

Even so, some were getting away. A river's current was a tricky thing, and the wildfire was not spreading as evenly as he had hoped. The main channel was all aflame, but a good many of the Myrmen had made for the south bank and looked to escape unscathed, and at least eight ships had landed under the city walls. Landed or wrecked, but it comes to the same thing, they've put men ashore. Worse, a good part of the south wing of the enemy's first two battle lines had been well upstream of the inferno when the hulks went up. Stannis would be left with thirty or forty galleys, at a guess; more than enough to bring his whole host across, once they had regained their courage.

 

[Blackfish Tully]

Just now, Hugorfonics said:

Sellswords. It took half a day to knight the soldiers who fought at the "winch tower" (what's a winch tower?) Besides, not all goldcloaks turned tail.

If the gates were to fall, and the fighting went into the city in front of the red keep, you theorized the battle would continue for a few days. It was a few days later when the Blackears came to KL

so you would put all your faith in sellswords when everything we hear in the books is how undependable sellswords are , why would they keep fighting when all seemed lost, wouldn't they just turn their cloak and join the winning side like just about every sellsword we have seen in the story. ? as for the goldcloaks you are right not all of them turned tail yet , how long till that happens ? they have already killed their commander and abandoned a gate , who is going to rally the remainder? why would they fight to the death for the Lannisters ? i'm guessing that most of them would just go home and wait to see what happens , they have no loyalty to Joffrey or the Lannsiters.

I think that the biggest weakness in your argument is that you are not taking into account who is defending Kings Landing . If this was 6000 of Tywin's best soldiers led by him or Kevan then you would have a point . But instead we have 6000 goldcloaks of questionable loyalty and very little experience at warfare led by ? (Tyrion is wounded , Bywater is dead , the Hound is gone so who is their leader?) as soon as Stannis regroups and hits the Mud Gate then the Battle is pretty much over .

 

[Blackfish Tully]

20 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Sellswords. It took half a day to knight the soldiers who fought at the "winch tower" (what's a winch tower?) Besides, not all goldcloaks turned tail.

If the gates were to fall, and the fighting went into the city in front of the red keep, you theorized the battle would continue for a few days. It was a few days later when the Blackears came to KL

So the Blackears are going to attack the 16,000 knights and soldiers of Stannis? that seems to be hard to believe . Not to mention the fact that the first thing Stannis would do after taking the gate is start working on getting the gate repaired. Once he's inside the city it's just a matter of time . The Goldcloaks  and sellswords would bend the knee to Stannis , they both fight for money and thre is  no chance that Joffrey would be able to pay them .

[Hugorfonics]

27 minutes ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

Probably because, Stannis and his army where about to cross the river...

When they regained their courage, however the bay was still on fire and you see how courageous Stannis' men are trying to board Saans ships.

22 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

so you would put all your faith in sellswords when everything we hear in the books is how undependable sellswords are , why would they keep fighting when all seemed lost, wouldn't they just turn their cloak and join the winning side like just about every sellsword we have seen in the story. ? as for the goldcloaks you are right not all of them turned tail yet , how long till that happens ? they have already killed their commander and abandoned a gate , who is going to rally the remainder? why would they fight to the death for the Lannisters ? i'm guessing that most of them would just go home and wait to see what happens , they have no loyalty to Joffrey or the Lannsiters.

I think that the biggest weakness in your argument is that you are not taking into account who is defending Kings Landing . If this was 6000 of Tywin's best soldiers led by him or Kevan then you would have a point . But instead we have 6000 goldcloaks of questionable loyalty and very little experience at warfare led by ? (Tyrion is wounded , Bywater is dead , the Hound is gone so who is their leader?) as soon as Stannis regroups and hits the Mud Gate then the Battle is pretty much over .

 

Sellswords arent always that greedy. Mero and the second sons or the GC both turned down money. Besides, moneys not everything. Its like Varys' riddle, money is just one out of three. Theres religion ( Stannis is intolerant) and loyalty 

"You won't hear me shout out Joffrey's name," he told them. "You won't hear me yell for Casterly Rock either. This is your city Stannis means to sack, and that's your gate he's bringing down. So come with me and kill the son of a bitch!"

But there are other commanders, I can think of 5. Bronn, Kettleblack and 3 KG

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

So the Blackears are going to attack the 16,000 knights and soldiers of Stannis? that seems to be hard to believe . Not to mention the fact that the first thing Stannis would do after taking the gate is start working on getting the gate repaired. Once he's inside the city it's just a matter of time . The Goldcloaks  and sellswords would bend the knee to Stannis , they both fight for money and thre is  no chance that Joffrey would be able to pay them .

Like i said, theres knights sellswords and commanders still. The Blackears wont be alone. Besides Chella is the one who came to KL, all the "wildlings" were still in the Kingswood, in Stannis' rear

[Unacosamedarisa]

Just now, Hugorfonics said:

When they regained their courage, however the bay was still on fire and you see how courageous Stannis' men are trying to board Saans ships.

They flee in panic... after they've been attacked in the rear by Tywin and the Tyrells. If Tywin and the Tyrells hadn't appeared, they'd have regained their courage, boarded the ships, crossed the bay, disembarked and attacked the city.

[Unacosamedarisa]

On the reliability of sellswords... 

Quote

He still had Bronn's hirelings, near eight hundred of them now, but sellswords were notoriously fickle. Tyrion had done what he could to buy their continued loyalty, promising Bronn and a dozen of his best men lands and knighthoods when the battle was won. They'd drunk his wine, laughed at his jests, and called each other ser until they were all staggering . . . all but Bronn himself, who'd only smiled that insolent dark smile of his and afterward said, "They'll kill for that knighthood, but don't ever think they'll die for it."

On the usefulness of the City Watch...

Quote

 

The gold cloaks were almost as uncertain a weapon. Six thousand men in the City Watch, thanks to Cersei, but only a quarter of them could be relied upon. "There's few out-and-out traitors, though there's some, even your spider hasn't found them all," Bywater had warned him. "But there's hundreds greener than spring grass, men who joined for bread and ale and safety. No man likes to look craven in the sight of his fellows, so they'll fight brave enough at the start, when it's all warhorns and blowing banners. But if the battle looks to be going sour they'll break, and they'll break bad. The first man to throw down his spear and run will have a thousand more trodding on his heels."

To be sure, there were seasoned men in the City Watch, the core of two thousand who'd gotten their gold cloaks from Robert, not Cersei. Yet even those . . . a watchman was not truly a soldier, Lord Tywin Lannister had been fond of saying. Of knights and squires and men-at-arms, Tyrion had no more than three hundred. Soon enough, he must test the truth of another of his father's sayings: One man on a wall was worth ten beneath it.

 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

15 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

But there are other commanders, I can think of 5. Bronn, Kettleblack and 3 KG

Like i said, theres knights sellswords and commanders still. The Blackears wont be alone. Besides Chella is the one who came to KL, all the "wildlings" were still in the Kingswood, in Stannis' rear

Bronn and the Kettleback's? that's got to be a joke right ? they are the worst of the sellswords, only loyal to themselves .

as for the mountain clans , they are not soldiers and would have zero chance at attacking thousands of Stannis's soldiers but that does not really matter because they are not stupid , once they saw the city has fallen they would just head back to the Vale . Why would they risk they risk their lives against thousands of Knights and soldiers ?

you keep insisting that these sellswords, goldcloaks and wildings have some sense of loyalty to the Lannister's that just does not exist in the books .

 

[Bullrout]

16 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Did Tyrion actually need the Tyrells and Tywin's support, or was he already winning without them. Was Stannis getting beat on the Blackwater even before Renly's ghost arrived? 

Tyrion delayed the enemy advance but he was outnumbered.  

[Corvo the Crow]

Tyrion was losing. Even with Tyrell intervention he had lost over a quarter to death and desertion and this is with Stannis' men having no toehold in the city, no wall scaled, no gate breached and they hardly had the chance to reorganize as well. It would have been a very costly victory for Stabbis but still a victory.

[The hairy bear]

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

There were three kingsguard alive after the battle, they spent half a day knighting the loyalists.

But Trant and Swann were the only KG left to defend KL when Tywin arrived. Moore had died, Clegane had fleed, Oakheart was in Dorne, Jaime was still prisoner, and Blount had been dismissed for cowardice.

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Why do you say this? [ Stannis is about to cross the river. ]

It's said by Davos:

"South of the Blackwater, Davos saw men dragging crude rafts toward the water while ranks and columns formed beneath a thousand streaming banners. The fiery heart was everywhere"

and Tyrion

"The wildfire was not spreading as evenly as he had hoped. The main channel was aflame, but a good many of the Myrmen had made for the south bank and looked to escape unscahted, and at least eight ships had landed under the city walls. Landed or wrecked, but it comes to the same thing, they've put men ashore. Worse, a good part of the south wing of the enemy's first two battle lines had been well upstream of the inferno when the hulks went up. Stannis would be left with thirty to forty galleys, at a guess. More than enough to bring the whole host across, once they had regained their courage."

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Or either of these? [ The city would have fallen in a matter of hours, and the Red Keep couldn't last more than a few days more. ]

Well, as I said Stannis outnumbered the defenders of the city by far, and his troops were better trained and significantly more loyal. Bywater warned Tyrion: "if the battle looks to be going sour they'll break, and they'll break bad". And the battle, was already looking sour, as Tyrion himself acknowledges in the quote I posted. It would look much worse once defenders realized that Tyrion, Clegane, Moore and Bywater dead or missing.

As I said, the city was already falling.

[Angel Eyes]

47 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Tyrion was losing. Even with Tyrell intervention he had lost over a quarter to death and desertion and this is with Stannis' men having no toehold in the city, no wall scaled, no gate breached and they hardly had the chance to reorganize as well. It would have been a very costly victory for Stabbis but still a victory.

And a bunch of dead refugees because Cersei would have had them all killed.

[Hugorfonics]

4 hours ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

They flee in panic... after they've been attacked in the rear by Tywin and the Tyrells. If Tywin and the Tyrells hadn't appeared, they'd have regained their courage, boarded the ships, crossed the bay, disembarked and attacked the city.

Which is not guaranteed to end in success, however if anyone else launches an attack Stannis is sure to fold like he did with Tywin, the wildlings in the Kingswood for example

3 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Bronn and the Kettleback's? that's got to be a joke right ? they are the worst of the sellswords, only loyal to themselves .

as for the mountain clans , they are not soldiers and would have zero chance at attacking thousands of Stannis's soldiers but that does not really matter because they are not stupid , once they saw the city has fallen they would just head back to the Vale . Why would they risk they risk their lives against thousands of Knights and soldiers ?

you keep insisting that these sellswords, goldcloaks and wildings have some sense of loyalty to the Lannister's that just does not exist in the books .

 

Theyre actually pretty loyal. Bronn named his son Tyrion, Kettleblack got tortured for Cersei

The Mountain Clans know where their bread is buttered. And theyre not knights but they dress like them, and fight decently.  And its not like they have to do hard fighting, Stannis' army is literary burning away.

Its not that I trust Lannister loyalty, its I distrust Stannis'. His army betrayed him in Kingslanding,  its logical to think it will a couple hours later

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

But Trant and Swann were the only KG left to defend KL when Tywin arrived. Moore had died, Clegane had fleed, Oakheart was in Dorne, Jaime was still prisoner, and Blount had been dismissed for cowardice.

It's said by Davos:

"South of the Blackwater, Davos saw men dragging crude rafts toward the water while ranks and columns formed beneath a thousand streaming banners. The fiery heart was everywhere"

and Tyrion

"The wildfire was not spreading as evenly as he had hoped. The main channel was aflame, but a good many of the Myrmen had made for the south bank and looked to escape unscahted, and at least eight ships had landed under the city walls. Landed or wrecked, but it comes to the same thing, they've put men ashore. Worse, a good part of the south wing of the enemy's first two battle lines had been well upstream of the inferno when the hulks went up. Stannis would be left with thirty to forty galleys, at a guess. More than enough to bring the whole host across, once they had regained their courage."

Well, as I said Stannis outnumbered the defenders of the city by far, and his troops were better trained and significantly more loyal. Bywater warned Tyrion: "if the battle looks to be going sour they'll break, and they'll break bad". And the battle, was already looking sour, as Tyrion himself acknowledges in the quote I posted. It would look much worse once defenders realized that Tyrion, Clegane, Moore and Bywater dead or missing.

As I said, the city was already falling.

Meryn Trant! I couldnt think of his name for the longest. Thanks. Blounts already been replaced by Kettleblack

Its not that I think think Tyrion was in a good position, I just think Stannis was in a worse one. We're blessed to have two POV in KL to see the decay in Tyrions battle. Only one POV for Stannis and we stop being privy to to that early on

[Unacosamedarisa]

18 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Which is not guaranteed to end in success, however if anyone else launches an attack Stannis is sure to fold like he did with Tywin, the wildlings in the Kingswood for example

Disagree completely. The way it was set up, with the forces in the city worn down, half dead, spread out and deserting, if Stannis' forces crossed in force, they would have taken the city. There were only ~100-200 Mountain clansmen in the Kings Wood... enough to harass Stannis, nowhere near enough to rout him. How would 150 wildings rout near 10,000 men? I just don't understand where you possibly get this from. Tyrion and Shagga even discuss the chances of a direct attack succeeding... 

Quote

"Whatever you do, don't try and fight a battle," Tyrion said. "Strike at their camps and baggage train. Ambush their scouts and hang the bodies from trees ahead of their line of march, loop around and cut down stragglers. I want night attacks, so many and so sudden that they'll be afraid to sleep—"

Shagga laid a hand atop Tyrion's head. "All this I learned from Dolf son of Holger before my beard had grown. This is the way of war in the Mountains of the Moon."

The majority of Stannis' army was intact, just on the south bank. If they'd crossed, the city would have fallen. Tyrion did his job... he delayed Stannis long enough for the Tyrells and Tywin to arrive, but without their intervention, it would only have been a matter of time before the city fell. 

18 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

And its not like they have to do hard fighting, Stannis' army is literary burning away.

I don't know where you get this from. Stannis' fleet (or a large portion of it) burned. But the majority of his army was intact, just waiting on the South Bank of the Blackwater. 

[Trigger Warning]

Tyrion should have been winning but as GRRM wrote it he wasn't, maybe all of Stannis' men were just terminators with no morale check until their boy Renly turned up again. 

Blackwater's a big dumb spectacle battle but it's fun to read and that's what matters.