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Battle of Blackwater- Tyrion was winning?


Bernie Mac

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2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Which is not guaranteed to end in success, however if anyone else launches an attack Stannis is sure to fold like he did with Tywin, the wildlings in the Kingswood for example

Theyre actually pretty loyal. Bronn named his son Tyrion, Kettleblack got tortured for Cersei

The Mountain Clans know where their bread is buttered. And theyre not knights but they dress like them, and fight decently.  And its not like they have to do hard fighting, Stannis' army is literary burning away.

I

 

so your hope for Kings Landing salvation is a few sellswords and a few hundred wildlings against Stannis's 16,000 knights and soldiers, good luck with that battle , i hope you don't have money riding on the outcome .

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Tyrion would have lost the city but not the Redkeep and in the mean time Tywin would be on his way with or without the Tyrells and Stannis is left with another decision defend KL or leave, which staying would be plausable if he repairs the city gates in time and the Tyrells DO NOT join them but as we kno the Tyrells do join them so Stannis would still have to retreat. 

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30 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

Tyrion would have lost the city but not the Redkeep and in the mean time Tywin would be on his way with or without the Tyrells and Stannis is left with another decision defend KL or leave, which staying would be plausable if he repairs the city gates in time and the Tyrells DO NOT join them but as we kno the Tyrells do join them so Stannis would still have to retreat. 

Even if Stannis took the city and the Tyrells didn't move against him his only option militarily would be to break out and withdraw if he couldn't appeal to the Tyrells to join him and relieve the city, he has no supplies in a city of 500,000 starving people. I don't think GRRM really put that much thought into the take King's Landing strategy on Stannis' end it's just setting the stage for this big climactic siege battle that can more or less wipe the slate for the next stage of the story of the War of Five Kings. 

King's Landing was a poisoned prize without Tyrell support. 

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9 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

Even if Stannis took the city and the Tyrells didn't move against him his only option militarily would be to break out and withdraw if he couldn't appeal to the Tyrells to join him and relieve the city, he has no supplies in a city of 500,000 starving people. I don't think GRRM really put that much thought into the take King's Landing strategy on Stannis' end 

It is part of his character, he genuinely believes that they will have to accept him as king once he sat on the throne and dispensed with Cersei's abominations. 

The king took off his crown and placed it on the table. "Dwarf or leech, this killer served the kingdom well. They must send for me now."

They will not," said Melisandre. "Joffrey has a brother."

"Tommen." The king said the name grudgingly.
 
It is part of his righteousness, that he can't really figure how others may put their own self interests above their 'duty'.  The idea that the Lannister and Tyrell controlled government would send for him is partly sweet, part lunacy 
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Just now, Bernie Mac said:

It is part of his character, he genuinely believes that they will have to accept him as king once he sat on the throne and dispensed with Cersei's abominations. 

The king took off his crown and placed it on the table. "Dwarf or leech, this killer served the kingdom well. They must send for me now."

They will not," said Melisandre. "Joffrey has a brother."

"Tommen." The king said the name grudgingly.
 
It is part of his righteousness, that he can't really figure how others may put their own self interests above their 'duty'. 

 

Personally I've always believed that as you've said Stannis' personal convictions regarding the throne get in the way of his military sensibilities, it's the only rationale I can think of for the Blackwater but all the same I still see the Blackwater as one of the least well set up parts of the series, I feel like GRRM was picturing this cool battle and filling in the plot points to make it a reality rather than building a set of circumstances that led to it more organically but that's just how it came across to me as I read it. 

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2 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

 I feel like GRRM was picturing this cool battle and filling in the plot points to make it a reality rather than building a set of circumstances that led to it more organically but that's just how it came across to me as I read it. 

I agree a little with that. Tyrion commissions the chain when Renly was still alive and had no Navy (Redwyne being forced to be neutral), it seems from the start he is ignoring preparing for, what clearly should be the main threat, and focusing entirely on Stannis. 

Of course that could be hand waved away due to Stannis' greater proximity to the capital and his own father drumming it into him how Stannis was the main threat, but the chain always seems a little too contrived for the ending of the book. 

 

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1 hour ago, Trigger Warning said:

Even if Stannis took the city and the Tyrells didn't move against him his only option militarily would be to break out and withdraw if he couldn't appeal to the Tyrells to join him and relieve the city, he has no supplies in a city of 500,000 starving people. I don't think GRRM really put that much thought into the take King's Landing strategy on Stannis' end it's just setting the stage for this big climactic siege battle that can more or less wipe the slate for the next stage of the story of the War of Five Kings. 

King's Landing was a poisoned prize without Tyrell support. 

Your right the Tyrells are KEY, if Stannis was smart he should have reached out to Highgarden and said listen no hard feelings about the siege you did your duty I did mine. Stannis would have to either A) have Selyse murdered or B) she could sacrifice herself if Mel "sees it in the flames" lol and Stannis Marry Margeory Tyrell. Or to really wet Maces whistle a match between Shireen and Ser loras where the children take the Tyrell name. THEN have him either A) murdered B) doesn't sleep with Shireen anyways thus no heir, C) Prove he's gay and that Shireen sired a bastard.

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5 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

Even if Stannis took the city and the Tyrells didn't move against him his only option militarily would be to break out and withdraw if he couldn't appeal to the Tyrells to join him and relieve the city, he has no supplies in a city of 500,000 starving people. I don't think GRRM really put that much thought into the take King's Landing strategy on Stannis' end it's just setting the stage for this big climactic siege battle that can more or less wipe the slate for the next stage of the story of the War of Five Kings. 

King's Landing was a poisoned prize without Tyrell support. 

Once he has kings landing he can supply it by sea(he dealt with tough sieges before)  , the redwyne fleet is on the other side of westeros and must pass  near dragonstone to cut that supply. Once he has the keep he can bargain with cersei, tyrion  and joff (if he doesnt kill joff) plus the victory could sway many enemy or neutral  lords to his side...

From his perspective Tywin cannot besiege kl for long with the possibility of robb comming from his rear( he couldnt know a special wedding was being planned)

Then we have the x factor in dorne,with kl gone the plot to send the viper to kl to exact revenge is finished so dorne will possibly attack the vunerable lannisters in open war

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1 hour ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

Once he has kings landing he can supply it by sea(he dealt with tough sieges before)  , the redwyne fleet is on the other side of westeros and must pass  near dragonstone to cut that supply. Once he has the keep he can bargain with cersei, tyrion  and joff (if he doesnt kill joff) plus the victory could sway many enemy or neutral  lords to his side...

From his perspective Tywin cannot besiege kl for long with the possibility of robb comming from his rear( he couldnt know a special wedding was being planned)

Then we have the x factor in dorne,with kl gone the plot to send the viper to kl to exact revenge is finished so dorne will possibly attack the vunerable lannisters in open war

 

The problem isn't enemy fleets, where's he going to source these supplies? With what money? Through storms when the city is already starving? The logistical nightmare of bringing in supplies by sea on that scale would be an impossibility, no one's going to be swayed to join him when he's trapped in a besieged city with men of dubious loyalty and a populous of starving people that have been ravaged by a sack that outnumber him 30 to 1. 

Then again Tywin doesn't even have to besiege him, he can just leave him to rot. The only way he's getting food is if he sends his men out to ravage the crownlands and that might not even be sufficient to feed his own men, let alone the entire city. Once those men have plundered King's Landing the prospect of sitting there to starve for Stannis of all people is going to be weighing on their minds heavily. 

No Tyrells, no food. 

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3 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

The problem isn't enemy fleets, where's he going to source these supplies? With what money? Through storms when the city is already starving? The logistical nightmare of bringing in supplies by sea on that scale would be an impossibility, no one's going to be swayed to join him when he's trapped in a besieged city with men of dubious loyalty and a populous of starving people that have been ravaged by a sack that outnumber him 30 to 1. 

Then again Tywin doesn't even have to besiege him, he can just leave him to rot. The only way he's getting food is if he sends his men out to ravage the crownlands and that might not even be sufficient to feed his own men, let alone the entire city. Once those men have plundered King's Landing the prospect of sitting there to starve for Stannis of all people is going to be weighing on their minds heavily. 

No Tyrells, no food. 

Stannis taking Kings Landing probably changes everything in relation to how the other Lords react . The Tyrells joining Tywin and attacking Stannis when he is vulnerable outside of the walls is one thing but them joining and attacking or besieging Stannis when he's inside the Capital is another matter . Mace has to carefully weigh his options , the future of his family is on the line and he cannot make the wrong move . A lot will depend on what Dorne , the Vale , Robb and Balon do . If Dorne and/or the Vale join Stannis then Mace may have no choice but to bend the knee or risk an all out war. Another big factor is Tommen , would Stannis be able to get his hands on him before Tywin or Mace do? If Stannis has Tommen then what can Tywin offer Mace to get him to join with the Lannisters? 

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1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Stannis taking Kings Landing probably changes everything in relation to how the other Lords react . The Tyrells joining Tywin and attacking Stannis when he is vulnerable outside of the walls is one thing but them joining and attacking or besieging Stannis when he's inside the Capital is another matter . Mace has to carefully weigh his options , the future of his family is on the line and he cannot make the wrong move . A lot will depend on what Dorne , the Vale , Robb and Balon do . If Dorne and/or the Vale join Stannis then Mace may have no choice but to bend the knee or risk an all out war. Another big factor is Tommen , would Stannis be able to get his hands on him before Tywin or Mace do? If Stannis has Tommen then what can Tywin offer Mace to get him to join with the Lannisters? 

Yeah if i recall tyrion had tommen somewhere in the crownlands 

The vale will stay neutral as lf cannot support stannis (king stannis would be the end of him and his brothel intel network)

The tryells have the threat of a florent as a queen pushing her family rights vs the realpolitick of their region now being surrounded(stormlands,riverlands,dorne) with unfriendly states if they attack stannis 

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8 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

The problem isn't enemy fleets, where's he going to source these supplies? With what money? Through storms when the city is already starving? The logistical nightmare of bringing in supplies by sea on that scale would be an impossibility, no one's going to be swayed to join him when he's trapped in a besieged city with men of dubious loyalty and a populous of starving people that have been ravaged by a sack that outnumber him 30 to 1. 

Then again Tywin doesn't even have to besiege him, he can just leave him to rot. The only way he's getting food is if he sends his men out to ravage the crownlands and that might not even be sufficient to feed his own men, let alone the entire city. Once those men have plundered King's Landing the prospect of sitting there to starve for Stannis of all people is going to be weighing on their minds heavily. 

No Tyrells, no food. 

He can source them from free cities(further essos too) ,stormlands,riverlands ,north and vale and dorne  ...everywhere neutral or agaisnt the lannisters is a potential food supplier 

Money wise he has the capital city and a strong claim to the throne as well so the same credit line robert had(minus lannisters) on top of whatever funds he built up for his campaign and can dip into the nobles in the city.

As for bringing the food in its a large  harbour city by the sea , large ancient cities have historicaly  easily been supplied and thats assuming dorne and the remaining stormlords dont now join the fight

Edit medieval cog on adverage can bring in between 90-200 ton of food

Now assuming stannis taking kl puts off the red wedding plotters then tywin cant besiege the capital anyway without his force breaking them from the rear

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14 minutes ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

Yeah if i recall tyrion had tommen somewhere in the crownlands 

The vale will stay neutral as lf cannot support stannis (king stannis would be the end of him and his brothel intel network)

The tryells have the threat of a florent as a queen pushing her family rights vs the realpolitick of their region now being surrounded(stormlands,riverlands,dorne) with unfriendly states if they attack stannis 

The question on the Vale is just how much control LF has there , he was able to keep them neutral up to that point but is there a breaking point and Bronze Yohn just ignores Lysa and joins one side or the other . 

 

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3 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

The question on the Vale is just how much control LF has there , he was able to keep them neutral up to that point but is there a breaking point and Bronze Yohn just ignores Lysa and joins one side or the other . 

 

Yeah stannis has 0 time.for him and if serious about his brothel ban would shut down Lfs intel org and a serious money maker overnight!

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4 hours ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

Yeah if i recall tyrion had tommen somewhere in the crownlands 

 

Tommen is the key to a lot of what would happen . If Stannis gets his hands on him then the Tyrells would have nobody to marry Margaery  to so there is little chance that  they would ally with Tywin against Stannis . The other Lords in the Reach would each have to make their own decision whether or not to bend the knee to Stannis or join Tywin and all it would take is  one or two bending the knee that may start a domino effect with the rest of them . Nobody wants to be on the losing side and the ones who bend the knee first get the best rewards . 

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On ‎8‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 8:05 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Did Tyrion actually need the Tyrells and Tywin's support, or was he already winning without them. Was Stannis getting beat on the Blackwater even before Renly's ghost arrived? 

Lancel certainly thinks that battle is lost:

Quote

When Ser Lancel Lannister told the queen that the battle was lost, she turned her empty wine cup in her hands and said, "Tell my brother, ser." Her voice was distant, is if the news were of no great interest to her.

"You brother's likely dead." Ser Lancel's surcoat was soaked with the blood seeping out under his arm. … "He was on the bridge of boats when it broke apart, we think. Ser Mandel's likely gone as well, and no one can find the Hound. Gods be damned, Cersei, why did you have them fetch Joffrey back to the castle? The gold cloaks are throwing down their spears and running, hundreds of them. When they saw the king leaving, they lost all heart. The whole Blackwater's awash with wrecks and fire and corpses, but we could have held if --"

Osney KB then notes that there is fighting on the other side of the river, which would be the rear thrust from the combined Tyrell-Lannister forces, but on this side:

Quote

"The riverside's theirs. They're ramming at the King's Gate again, and Ser Lancel's right, your men are deserting the walls and killing their own officers. There's mobs a the Iron Gate and the Gate of the Gods fighting to get out, and Flea Bottom's one great drunken riot."

So if not for the alliance and timely arrival of Mace and Tywin, it seems pretty clear that Stannis would have taken the city.

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